July 9, 2026
RFA
By Taejun Kang
Strategic Timing and Message — The launch occurred shortly after Australia and Fiji signed a mutual defense treaty and amid major U.S.-led military exercises, interpreted by analysts as a deliberate political warning against efforts to counter Chinese influence in the Pacific.
It Risks Backfiring — While showcasing China’s ability to threaten deep into the Central Pacific (including routes relevant to Taiwan contingencies), the test has drawn sharp criticism from multiple countries and may push Pacific nations closer to the US and Australia.
China’s test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile into the Pacific this week was aimed at signaling its growing military reach to U.S. allies across the region, analysts told Radio Free Asia, as Beijing sought to frame the launch as a routine exercise.
China’s state-run Xinhua news agency reported Monday that a Chinese navy submarine launched a missile carrying a dummy warhead toward international waters in the Pacific at 12:01 p.m. local time, describing it as a “routine arrangement” in annual military training and not directed at any specific country or target.
Analysts said the timing and trajectory suggested Beijing was using the test to send a broad political and military message across the Asia-Pacific.
“China’s latest ICBM test serves several purposes,” William Yang, a Northeast Asia analyst at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group, told RFA. “It demonstrates the progress in China’s advanced missile capabilities, sends a signal to regional countries, including Australia and other Pacific states, about Beijing’s ability to respond resolutely to what it views as a challenge to its interests, and allows the People’s Liberation Army to maintain regular military drills across the Asia Pacific region.”
Though Yang referred to it as an ICBM, or intercontinental ballistic missile, Xinhua did not specifically use those words. The U.S. State Department called it an “intercontinental-range ballistic missile,” in a statement where it criticized the launch at a time when “the United States is working harder than ever to prevent nuclear proliferation,” and “China is doing the opposite.”
The launch also drew criticism from Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Taiwan, with several governments saying they had received only short notice.
The test touched a nerve across the region because it came against the backdrop of intensifying strategic competition in the Pacific, where China, the United States and its allies have been vying for influence over sea lanes, security ties with Pacific Island countries, and military access to the region.
For China, the Pacific islands have become an increasingly important diplomatic and strategic arena as Beijing seeks to expand its presence beyond East Asia. For Australia, New Zealand and the United States, the region has become a frontline in efforts to prevent China from translating economic influence into a deeper security foothold.
Australia-Fiji treaty
The missile landed in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone only hours after Australia and Fiji signed a mutual defense treaty.
Yang said the timing was “also a political signal to Canberra and other U.S. allies that China will not be deterred by their efforts to undercut China’s interests in deepening its influence in the Pacific region.”
The defense pact, known as the Ocean of Peace, commits Australia and Fiji to assist each other if attacked. It was signed as Canberra has sought to rebuild security ties and trust in the Pacific after years of concern among island governments over climate change, development needs and outside interference.
China has meanwhile deepened engagement with several Pacific island states through policing, aid and infrastructure agreements, raising alarm in Washington and allied capitals over the possibility of a more permanent Chinese security role in the region.
The launch occurred during “a crowded window of allied activity” that included not only the treaty signing – but also on the heels of RIMPAC, Valiant Shield, and Resolute Dragon – U.S.-led bilateral or multilateral military exercises focusing on the broader Pacific region, Aadil Brar, a Taipei-based independent analyst and former visiting scholar at National Chengchi University, told RFA.
Message sent
Though the Chinese navy said that the launch was directed at no particular country or target, Brar said the distance and direction was deliberate.
“That trajectory alone shows the real aim was less about any single target and more about proving China can range deep into the Central Pacific, threading through waters used by the Philippines, Guam-based U.S. forces, and Pacific island states, all at once,” he said.
The route described by Brar, from the Chinese coast across the Philippine Sea and south of Guam before landing near the Marshall Islands and Nauru, would have taken the missile through a corridor that matters strategically to both Washington and Beijing. It passes through waters used by U.S. forces based in Guam, near routes that could be critical for moving reinforcements in a regional conflict, including one involving Taiwan.
Brar said Taiwan was not directly overflown this time, but the test still carried implications for the island because it demonstrated China’s ability “to hold reinforcement routes at risk well beyond the first island chain,” the arc of islands running from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines to Borneo, forming a key maritime boundary around China’s near seas.
Such abilities would complicate any U.S. intervention in a hypothetical Taiwan Strait crisis, he said.
Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has long warned that Beijing is stepping up military pressure on the democratically governed island through war games, air and naval patrols, and missile development. Chinese officials have not ruled out the use of force to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control.
Still, Yang said he did not think the launch was directly related to Taiwan in this case, arguing that Beijing’s “target audience is the wider region rather than the Taiwanese government,” given its timing alongside the Australia-Fiji agreement and the missile’s launch and impact areas.
The test launch might not have been the best strategy for China, Gregory Brown, director of the Alliance Futures Initiative, a Washington-based think tank, told RFA.
“I don’t know that the intention from the Chinese is actually to threaten the Pacific Islands or Australia. It certainly got everybody’s attention,” said Brown. “It’s probably an own goal for China to have done this now, because now there’s reason to say this is the sort of thing and sort of behavior why Fiji would want to sign a treaty with Australia or maybe get closer to the United States.”
China last publicly conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test in 2024, in a launch that underscored the country’s growing strategic capabilities and prompted renewed scrutiny of the pace and opacity of its nuclear modernization.
About RFA
Radio Free Asia’s mission is to provide accurate and timely news and information to Asian countries whose governments prohibit access to a free press. Content used with the permission of Radio Free Asia, 2025 M St. NW, Suite 300, Washington DC 20036.
View all posts by RFA →
RFA
By Taejun Kang
Key Takeaways
China Flexed Its Growing Military Reach — The test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile into the Pacific was intended to demonstrate Beijing’s advancing hypersonic and nuclear capabilities, sending a signal to regional countries including Australia and other Pacific states.
Strategic Timing and Message — The launch occurred shortly after Australia and Fiji signed a mutual defense treaty and amid major U.S.-led military exercises, interpreted by analysts as a deliberate political warning against efforts to counter Chinese influence in the Pacific.
It Risks Backfiring — While showcasing China’s ability to threaten deep into the Central Pacific (including routes relevant to Taiwan contingencies), the test has drawn sharp criticism from multiple countries and may push Pacific nations closer to the US and Australia.
China’s test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile into the Pacific this week was aimed at signaling its growing military reach to U.S. allies across the region, analysts told Radio Free Asia, as Beijing sought to frame the launch as a routine exercise.
China’s state-run Xinhua news agency reported Monday that a Chinese navy submarine launched a missile carrying a dummy warhead toward international waters in the Pacific at 12:01 p.m. local time, describing it as a “routine arrangement” in annual military training and not directed at any specific country or target.
Analysts said the timing and trajectory suggested Beijing was using the test to send a broad political and military message across the Asia-Pacific.
“China’s latest ICBM test serves several purposes,” William Yang, a Northeast Asia analyst at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group, told RFA. “It demonstrates the progress in China’s advanced missile capabilities, sends a signal to regional countries, including Australia and other Pacific states, about Beijing’s ability to respond resolutely to what it views as a challenge to its interests, and allows the People’s Liberation Army to maintain regular military drills across the Asia Pacific region.”
Though Yang referred to it as an ICBM, or intercontinental ballistic missile, Xinhua did not specifically use those words. The U.S. State Department called it an “intercontinental-range ballistic missile,” in a statement where it criticized the launch at a time when “the United States is working harder than ever to prevent nuclear proliferation,” and “China is doing the opposite.”
The launch also drew criticism from Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Taiwan, with several governments saying they had received only short notice.
The test touched a nerve across the region because it came against the backdrop of intensifying strategic competition in the Pacific, where China, the United States and its allies have been vying for influence over sea lanes, security ties with Pacific Island countries, and military access to the region.
For China, the Pacific islands have become an increasingly important diplomatic and strategic arena as Beijing seeks to expand its presence beyond East Asia. For Australia, New Zealand and the United States, the region has become a frontline in efforts to prevent China from translating economic influence into a deeper security foothold.
Australia-Fiji treaty
The missile landed in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone only hours after Australia and Fiji signed a mutual defense treaty.
Yang said the timing was “also a political signal to Canberra and other U.S. allies that China will not be deterred by their efforts to undercut China’s interests in deepening its influence in the Pacific region.”
The defense pact, known as the Ocean of Peace, commits Australia and Fiji to assist each other if attacked. It was signed as Canberra has sought to rebuild security ties and trust in the Pacific after years of concern among island governments over climate change, development needs and outside interference.
China has meanwhile deepened engagement with several Pacific island states through policing, aid and infrastructure agreements, raising alarm in Washington and allied capitals over the possibility of a more permanent Chinese security role in the region.
The launch occurred during “a crowded window of allied activity” that included not only the treaty signing – but also on the heels of RIMPAC, Valiant Shield, and Resolute Dragon – U.S.-led bilateral or multilateral military exercises focusing on the broader Pacific region, Aadil Brar, a Taipei-based independent analyst and former visiting scholar at National Chengchi University, told RFA.
Message sent
Though the Chinese navy said that the launch was directed at no particular country or target, Brar said the distance and direction was deliberate.
“That trajectory alone shows the real aim was less about any single target and more about proving China can range deep into the Central Pacific, threading through waters used by the Philippines, Guam-based U.S. forces, and Pacific island states, all at once,” he said.
The route described by Brar, from the Chinese coast across the Philippine Sea and south of Guam before landing near the Marshall Islands and Nauru, would have taken the missile through a corridor that matters strategically to both Washington and Beijing. It passes through waters used by U.S. forces based in Guam, near routes that could be critical for moving reinforcements in a regional conflict, including one involving Taiwan.
Brar said Taiwan was not directly overflown this time, but the test still carried implications for the island because it demonstrated China’s ability “to hold reinforcement routes at risk well beyond the first island chain,” the arc of islands running from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines to Borneo, forming a key maritime boundary around China’s near seas.
Such abilities would complicate any U.S. intervention in a hypothetical Taiwan Strait crisis, he said.
Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has long warned that Beijing is stepping up military pressure on the democratically governed island through war games, air and naval patrols, and missile development. Chinese officials have not ruled out the use of force to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control.
Still, Yang said he did not think the launch was directly related to Taiwan in this case, arguing that Beijing’s “target audience is the wider region rather than the Taiwanese government,” given its timing alongside the Australia-Fiji agreement and the missile’s launch and impact areas.
The test launch might not have been the best strategy for China, Gregory Brown, director of the Alliance Futures Initiative, a Washington-based think tank, told RFA.
“I don’t know that the intention from the Chinese is actually to threaten the Pacific Islands or Australia. It certainly got everybody’s attention,” said Brown. “It’s probably an own goal for China to have done this now, because now there’s reason to say this is the sort of thing and sort of behavior why Fiji would want to sign a treaty with Australia or maybe get closer to the United States.”
China last publicly conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test in 2024, in a launch that underscored the country’s growing strategic capabilities and prompted renewed scrutiny of the pace and opacity of its nuclear modernization.
About RFA
Radio Free Asia’s mission is to provide accurate and timely news and information to Asian countries whose governments prohibit access to a free press. Content used with the permission of Radio Free Asia, 2025 M St. NW, Suite 300, Washington DC 20036.
View all posts by RFA →
Submarine missile test puts China's Pacific ambitions on display
A Chinese submarine test-fired a "strategic" missile carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean on Monday, Beijing said, prompting immediate condemnation across the region.
Issued on: 08/07/2026 - RFI
By: Jan van der Made
“It’s the first known submarine-based missile test since 1982,” according to Professor Michael Dillon, a China specialist affiliated with the Lau China Institute at London’s King’s College, and "the first ever from a nuclear-powered submarine."
According to Dillon, Beijing wants to demonstrate that "the Chinese Navy is here and it is in a position to fire missiles."
China’s state-controlled People’s Daily called the launch a “routine arrangement of the annual training of the PLA Navy."
But Australia’s PM Anthony Albanese, on a visit to the Solomon Islands called it a "provocative act by China which does destabilise the region,” during a joint press conference with the Solomon’s PM Mathew Wale, who remarked that he launched a “strong protest" with the Chinese ambassador.
The US State Department expressed concern. According to the Japan Times, Tokyo had “strongly urged” China to refrain from the test prior to the launch, and on Wednesday, Tuvalu Prime Minister Feleti Teo on condemned the test near its waters.
Clive Hamilton, the Australia-based author of Hidden Hand, a book that describes China’s growing influence around the world, points out that the missile launch comes immediately after Australia signed a mutual defence pact with Fiji.
"China is afraid that its push to gain more influence in and over Pacific nations is facing serious pushback,” he told RFI.
“This missile test has the appearance of a deliberate rebuke to Pacific Island states and Australia for undertaking more systematic military and economic cooperation,” he says.
A Chinese submarine test-fired a "strategic" missile carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean on Monday, Beijing said, prompting immediate condemnation across the region.
Issued on: 08/07/2026 - RFI
Screenshot of the WeChat channel of China's Defence Ministry showing the launch of an ICBM that would land in the Pacific, 25 September 2024. © Screengrab WeChat via agencies
By: Jan van der Made
“It’s the first known submarine-based missile test since 1982,” according to Professor Michael Dillon, a China specialist affiliated with the Lau China Institute at London’s King’s College, and "the first ever from a nuclear-powered submarine."
According to Dillon, Beijing wants to demonstrate that "the Chinese Navy is here and it is in a position to fire missiles."
China’s state-controlled People’s Daily called the launch a “routine arrangement of the annual training of the PLA Navy."
But Australia’s PM Anthony Albanese, on a visit to the Solomon Islands called it a "provocative act by China which does destabilise the region,” during a joint press conference with the Solomon’s PM Mathew Wale, who remarked that he launched a “strong protest" with the Chinese ambassador.
The US State Department expressed concern. According to the Japan Times, Tokyo had “strongly urged” China to refrain from the test prior to the launch, and on Wednesday, Tuvalu Prime Minister Feleti Teo on condemned the test near its waters.
Clive Hamilton, the Australia-based author of Hidden Hand, a book that describes China’s growing influence around the world, points out that the missile launch comes immediately after Australia signed a mutual defence pact with Fiji.
"China is afraid that its push to gain more influence in and over Pacific nations is facing serious pushback,” he told RFI.
“This missile test has the appearance of a deliberate rebuke to Pacific Island states and Australia for undertaking more systematic military and economic cooperation,” he says.
A spokesperson for China's Minstry of National Defense (MND) announcing the launch of a ICBM into the Pacific, 25 September 2024. © Screenshot Chinese Ministry of National Defense website
The missile tests also shows the “urgent need for Australia to build its military capability” in the Pacific, according to Hamilton, and "far from intimidating Pacific island states out of military cooperation with Australia, it may well force them to become closer to Australia and by implication also New Zealand and the United States."
According to defconlevel.com, an organisation consisting of intelligence analysts and nuclear specialists, China currently disposes of some 600 nuclear war heads, and 6 Jin type 094 nuclear submarines, capable of launching strategic missiles.
'Drive the US out'
The Chinese missile test coincides with the “Joint Sea-2026” naval exercises that performed with Russia, that will continue through July 13.
The naval exercise are aimed at "complicating United States maritime superiority” in the Pacific theatre, according to defence watchdog Defence Security Asia, while intensifies "Indo-Pacific military competition surrounding Taiwan” with countries like Australia, Japan and the Philippines.
According to Hamilton, the “Joint Sea-2026” drills "reflect China's broader attempts, in its alliances with Russia and Iran and North Korea to project a more formidable and more threatening military capability.” and part of a "longer term strategy to drive the US out of the Western Pacific.”
The missile tests also shows the “urgent need for Australia to build its military capability” in the Pacific, according to Hamilton, and "far from intimidating Pacific island states out of military cooperation with Australia, it may well force them to become closer to Australia and by implication also New Zealand and the United States."
According to defconlevel.com, an organisation consisting of intelligence analysts and nuclear specialists, China currently disposes of some 600 nuclear war heads, and 6 Jin type 094 nuclear submarines, capable of launching strategic missiles.
'Drive the US out'
The Chinese missile test coincides with the “Joint Sea-2026” naval exercises that performed with Russia, that will continue through July 13.
The naval exercise are aimed at "complicating United States maritime superiority” in the Pacific theatre, according to defence watchdog Defence Security Asia, while intensifies "Indo-Pacific military competition surrounding Taiwan” with countries like Australia, Japan and the Philippines.
According to Hamilton, the “Joint Sea-2026” drills "reflect China's broader attempts, in its alliances with Russia and Iran and North Korea to project a more formidable and more threatening military capability.” and part of a "longer term strategy to drive the US out of the Western Pacific.”
In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese naval frigate Binzhou takes part in a joint naval drills with Russian warships in the East China Sea on Dec. 27, 2022. AP - Xu Wei
However, Dillon points out that the relationship between China and Russia remains “complex,” and in spite of China’s covert support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, there has been “a lot of tension” between the two countries - including not fully resolved historical territorial claims and Russia’s concern about a growing influx of Chinese in eastern Siberia.
"China is wanting to demonstrate that it is ahead (of Russia) in missile terms,” according to Dillon.
Security pact
France, because of its territories New Caledonia and French Polynesia, is also a pacific power that worries about China’s growing military activities in the region; officially New Caledonia’s ocean territory borders that of the Solomon Islands, that currently enjoys a security pact with China.
China expands military might as far as French borders with Solomon Islands pact
But even for the Solomon Islands, the ICBM test was a step too far: “China's a good friend of Solomon Islands - but this is not something a friend does,” according to its PM Mathew Wale.
“We don't want to see any more countries, China, America, testing ICBMs in the Pacific Islands region. That's the bottom line,” he said.
While Australia is looking to improve ties with the island nation, Hamilton also stresses that ties with France can be improved. “It could be "beneficial if Australia decided to spend a substantial sum buying some armaments from France.”
Former admiral urges Australia to renege on Aukus deal and buy French subs
In 2021, Canberra joined the AUKUS military alliance with the US and the UK and cancelled a billion Euro submarine deal with Paris, leaving relations with France today “still fairly cool” in spite of a new government. Under the AUKUS deal, the US will sell nuclear submarines to Australia.
Buying French arms could "help repair the relationship” with Canberra, says Hamilton, which would be advantageous in the face of China’s growing military might in the region.
However, Dillon points out that the relationship between China and Russia remains “complex,” and in spite of China’s covert support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, there has been “a lot of tension” between the two countries - including not fully resolved historical territorial claims and Russia’s concern about a growing influx of Chinese in eastern Siberia.
"China is wanting to demonstrate that it is ahead (of Russia) in missile terms,” according to Dillon.
Security pact
France, because of its territories New Caledonia and French Polynesia, is also a pacific power that worries about China’s growing military activities in the region; officially New Caledonia’s ocean territory borders that of the Solomon Islands, that currently enjoys a security pact with China.
China expands military might as far as French borders with Solomon Islands pact
But even for the Solomon Islands, the ICBM test was a step too far: “China's a good friend of Solomon Islands - but this is not something a friend does,” according to its PM Mathew Wale.
“We don't want to see any more countries, China, America, testing ICBMs in the Pacific Islands region. That's the bottom line,” he said.
While Australia is looking to improve ties with the island nation, Hamilton also stresses that ties with France can be improved. “It could be "beneficial if Australia decided to spend a substantial sum buying some armaments from France.”
Former admiral urges Australia to renege on Aukus deal and buy French subs
In 2021, Canberra joined the AUKUS military alliance with the US and the UK and cancelled a billion Euro submarine deal with Paris, leaving relations with France today “still fairly cool” in spite of a new government. Under the AUKUS deal, the US will sell nuclear submarines to Australia.
Buying French arms could "help repair the relationship” with Canberra, says Hamilton, which would be advantageous in the face of China’s growing military might in the region.
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