July 9, 2026
By Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Key Takeaways
NATO Commits to Major Rearmament — At the 2026 Ankara Summit, the Alliance is pushing forward with the goal of raising defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, backed by new procurement contracts and industrial efforts.
Critical Minerals Are the New Bottleneck — China dominates 60–90% of the supply or refining of most of NATO’s 12 critical raw materials needed for defense (lithium, cobalt, rare earths, etc.), creating a major strategic vulnerability.
New Initiative Launched for Supply Security — NATO announced a “High-Visibility Project” involving 12 allies (plus partners like Australia and Japan) to secure procurement, stockpiling, and management of these minerals, aiming to reduce dependence on Beijing.
Ankara’s long-neglected avenues were overnight transformed into smooth asphalt roads for diplomatic guests. Unsightly views along potential protocol routes were concealed behind large canvases. For two days, city residents were left suffocated by overwhelming security measures. Media channels once again chose to focus on the window-dressing: for days, the public agenda was occupied by which park would be closed for the morning jog of French President Emmanuel Macron, who never took off his sunglasses throughout the summit. Headlines were dominated by photographs of Donald Trump presenting an intimate front with President Erdoğan, while experiencing visible friction with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Yet, behind the political theater projected onto screens lay the highly austere agenda of the 36th NATO Summit, held on July 7–8, 2026. Attended fully at the level of heads of state and government from 32 member countries—with Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Ukraine, and the European Union also at the table—the summit represented a critical threshold for the Western bloc’s military power projection.
From The Hague to Ankara: The 5% Pledge and Rearmament Momentum
The core axis of the meetings in Ankara was anchored in the radical decision made at the North Atlantic Council in The Hague in June 2025: Alliance members pledged to raise their defense expenditures to 5% of their GDP by 2035. Driven further by the pressure of the Trump administration, the Ankara Summit turned into a platform where operational steps for this massive rearmament drive were taken, military-industrial capacities were showcased, and billion-dollar defense procurement contracts were signed.
However, this aggressive budget expansion and rearmament momentum simultaneously harbor a deep structural vulnerability. In today’s world, having massive defense budgets yields no meaning if your adversaries on the field control your industry’s supply chains. Indeed, NATO’s push to augment its defense capacity is hitting a critical raw materials bottleneck carefully managed and increasingly restricted by Beijing. To expand its defense capabilities, the Western military-industrial complex is currently more dependent on China than ever before in history.
A Predictable Crisis: The 12 Critical Minerals
On the other hand, this structural dependence is by no means a sudden surprise for the Alliance. In June 2024, NATO Defense Ministers approved the “Critical Supply Chain Security Roadmap for the Defense Sector,” mandating that allies build strategic raw material stockpiles, enhance recycling capabilities, and investigate alternative material substitutions. Subsequently, on December 11, 2024, NATO published an official list of 12 critical raw materials, including aluminum, cobalt, graphite, lithium, and rare earth elements. These minerals constitute the fundamental inputs for the Western bloc’s defense industry, spanning from ammunition production to missile navigation systems, aerospace fuselages, and advanced radar technologies.
However, China holds a crushing market share ranging from 60% to 90% in either the mining production or refining processes of at least 10 of these 12 critical minerals defined as vital by NATO; in some, it enjoys an absolute monopoly. Furthermore, Beijing’s share increases year by year, consequently heightening the risk for NATO.
Beijing has proven repeatedly in recent years that it can use this monopoly over critical minerals not merely as a commercial advantage, but directly as a coercive foreign policy instrument. Through export restrictions, China possesses the leverage to slow down or entirely paralyze NATO’s rearmament drive.
The Ankara Initiative: A New Project for Critical Mineral Security
Recognizing that supply security equates directly to military sovereignty, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced during the Ankara Summit the launch of a new “High-Visibility Project” focusing on critical raw materials for defense. Bringing together 12 allies—including Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and Türkiye—this initiative will focus on the procurement, stockpiling, transportation, and management of critical raw materials required for the defense industry.
While the absence of certain “Eastern Flank” members with notable mineral reserves, such as Poland, Romania or Czechia, is an eye-catching omission, the presence of the “Asia-Pacific Four” (Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand) and critical mineral-rich Ukraine in Ankara reflects the West’s resolve to forge an alliance aimed at breaking the Chinese monopoly.
In conclusion, in this new era where global power competition is evolving from conventional deterrence into an industrial and technological war of attrition, military power can no longer be measured solely by the size of allocated financial budgets. Unless the security of critical mineral supply chains is guaranteed, NATO’s multi-billion-dollar rearmament drive will remain a vision built on sand. Consequently, critical mineral supply security will inevitably be one of the top priorities of every subsequent NATO summit.
About Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Dr. Nejat Tamzok received his bachelor's and master's degrees in Mining Engineering from the Middle East Technical University, and his doctorate degree in Political Science and Public Administration from the Ankara University. He also graduated from the Anadolu University Department of History. He has worked at the Turkish Coal Enterprises since 1985, where he has held the positions of Planning Director and Strategic Planning Coordinator. He has participated in the construction of numerous engineering projects throughout his career. He also served as the Editor-in-Chief of the Scientific Mining Journal, a peer-reviewed publication of the Chamber of Mining Engineers of Turkey, from 2016 to 2023. Dr. Tamzok is a member of the Chamber of Mining Engineers of Turkey, the Turkish National Committee of the World Mining Congress, the Turkish National Committee of the World Energy Council, and the Middle East Technical University Alumni Association.
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