Europe’s ‘imagination gap’ risks empowering far right, survey warns
Half of Europeans cannot picture a credible path to a stronger EU, an “imagination gap” that risks ceding the political initiative to nostalgic far‑right forces, according to a major new study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Issued on: 09/09/2026 - RFI
The report, based on 5,834 AI‑moderated interviews in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland, plus desk research in 15 EU states, identifies four broad "attitudes".
Catalyst for renewal
Around one in five are "positive", with some seeing crises as a catalyst for renewal; the largest group in most countries, however, is "negative", viewing Europe as being in decline; roughly a third of those questioned are "uncertain", wanting more Europe but doubting that leaders can deliver it; and about a tenth are "disconnected".
While EU leaders have framed recent shocks — war in Ukraine, energy turmoil and US unpredictability - as Europe's "independence moment" in the EU Commission's 2026 Work Programme, public perception lags behind.
Some 68 per cent describe Europe today in terms of deterioration or "lost normality" versus only 12 per cent speaking of awakening or renewal, according to the ECFR study.
Nearly three-quarters say Europe is coping badly with its biggest challenges, blaming national governments twice as often as EU institutions.
Sources of doubt
The main sources of doubt among the "uncertain" group - the second-largest, at around a third of those questioned - are a perceived slowness in European decision-making; perceived double standards and capitulation to stronger powers; and insecurity over war, dependence on the US, and the rise of the far right.
The authors warn that when people cannot envision a believable tomorrow, they become "receptive to visions that recast the past as the future" — a dynamic, they say, that benefits far-right parties currently leading the polls in several countries.
To counter this, pro-European leaders should harness "future nostalgia": a longing not for a bygone era, but for the feeling that a better future was once within reach.
With Europe increasingly debated through domestic concerns — migration, climate, cost of living — the EU's fate will be decided in national elections, where the "uncertain" hold the balance, the report said.
(With newswires)
EU's largest political group doesn't want confrontation with China
The EU's most influential political family is drafting a paper urging tougher use of trade leverage with China, while maintaining dialogue and avoiding a trade escalation.
The centre-right European People's Party (EPP) is preparing to call for a rebalancing of relations with China that stops short of open confrontation or full decoupling.
In the upcoming paper, senior EPP lawmakers are set to argue for a general rebalancing of economic relations by making fuller use of the bloc's existing economic leverage tools, stopping short of a full escalation, according to the early contents seen by Euronews.
The EPP is the largest and most influential political family at EU level, commanding the largest number of MEPs in the European Parliament and 14 out of the 27 commissioners in the European Commission.
Brussels has grown increasingly worried about the bloc's economic imbalances with Beijing, with a widening trade deficit that EU officials attribute to Chinese industrial overcapacity and generous state subsidies undercutting European competitors.
The EU has set October as the deadline to secure concessions from the Chinese government, after which point the European Commission is ready to impose "harsher measures", according to EU Trade Chief Maroš Šefčovič.
In this context, EPP MEPs sitting on the International Trade Committee are preparing a position paper due to be finalised in mid-October, on the heels of the next European Council summit.
The paper focuses on four main areas: rebalancing trade and investment, export control measures, intellectual property rights, and reform of the World Trade Organisation.
An early version argues for a balanced approach: promoting dialogue with China while more forcefully defending Europe's economic interests, notably by using trade defence instruments more decisively and developing new tools to counter unfair competition.
At the same time, EPP lawmakers insist trade measures should be proportionate and temporary, designed to strengthen the EU's bargaining power rather than lock in permanent protectionism.
The need to diversify supply chains and cut dependency on critical raw materials is also cited as a way to reduce China's economic leverage, notably through the ratification and expansion of free trade agreements with partners such as Mercosur, India, Indonesia and Australia.
The paper also calls for tighter customs enforcement and closer oversight of e-commerce platforms, as the Commission plans a major reform to close the enforcement gaps that let illegal goods into the EU market.
Aviation, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology are flagged as sectors the EU should further develop to cut its economic dependence on Beijing.
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