Republican convention: Trump defends Iran war, attacks Democrats and promises voters cash
President Donald Trump, at Wednesday's Republican midterm convention, promised $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans retain control of Congress in November, while defending US war in Iran and antagonising Democrats.
During a long speech at a Republican convention in Dallas, Texas, Donald Trump sought to revitalise his conservative base, defending the unpopular war in Iran while trying to keep control of Congress in the November midterm elections by promising cash to every adult.
Trump strongly defended the Iran war, predicting victory and linking it directly to lower oil prices — before suggesting the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz should be renamed after him.
"Food prices and almost every other item are rapidly going down. And by the way, oil will be going down as soon as we win the war with Iran, which is taking place right now," Trump said.
But Trump appeared to acknowledge the war had taken a toll on the US economy. "We were doing great," he said, before turning to his economic advisers and telling them, "I hate to do this to you." He then explained that he had felt compelled to launch the conflict because Iran was perhaps "two, maybe three weeks away from having a nuclear weapon."
Trump also echoed other Republicans at the convention stirring up what he said was a wave of communism threatening the United States.
"It's going to be a communist country if they win," he warned.
"Your vote will decide whether our country stumbles at the starting gate of the next 250 years or surges forward and never ever looks back," he said.
Trump's $5,000 gambit
Donald Trump is betting on an extraordinary promise to shore up his party’s fortunes ahead of the November midterm elections: if Republicans keep control of the House and Senate, every American adult will receive cash.
"So if the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000. It will be called the Trump dividend," Trump told Republicans in Texas, as the party struggles in polls against the Democrats.
Within an hour, Vice President JD Vance appeared to try to walk back Trump’s proposal — at least in part — by suggesting the dividend payments would not go to the wealthy. Vance suggested it could be paid for by US tariff revenues, though the suggested payment dwarfs what the US has taken in through the protectionist measures.
The promise would likely cost more than $1 trillion (€860bn) and require congressional approval, and would further exacerbate the country’s nearly $1.8 trillion (€1.55tr) annual budget deficit and concerns about inflation.
The sum would far exceed US tariff revenues even before the Supreme Court tossed much of the president’s tariff program last year.
He did not say where the money would come from, citing only that "our country is making so much money."
The national debt last month topped $40 trillion (€34.4tr) for the first time.
'I'm on the ballot'
Doubling down on his bet that he can help Republicans defy opinion polls and retain both houses of Congress on 3 November, Trump said: "I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot."
"I'm on the ballot, I'm on the ballot — just one more time," he told the crowd.
Opinion polls overwhelmingly show that Trump's approval ratings are in the low 30s, as voters become increasingly angry about high prices and the war he launched against Iran.
Trump has frequently lamented that, during the modern era, the president’s party almost always loses seats in Congress during the midterms, and he has looked for unorthodox ways to defy the trend, including this week’s convention.
"We’re going to change that," Trump said. "There’s no reason for it."
The Trump dividend: What $5,000 would cost and what it could cover
What would Trump’s proposed $5,000 dividend buy — and could the US afford its estimated $1.2 trillion cost?
The US president has promised to give every adult citizen a $5,000 (€4,290) payment if Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate
The proposal could cost almost $1.2 trillion (€1.03 trillion), exceeding the Pentagon’s full 2026 budget request.
“If the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000. It will be called the Trump dividend,” Trump told the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday, as the party struggles in the polls against the Democrats.
He compared the payments with the dividends distributed by companies to their shareholders, citing “our tremendous strength and success economically”.
Within an hour, Vice President JD Vance appeared to scale back Trump’s proposal, at least in part, by suggesting that wealthy Americans would not receive the payments.
The US had around 240 million adult citizens at the time of the 2024 presidential election, including 174 million registered voters, according to the latest comprehensive US Census Bureau figures. Only about 70% of the voting-age population was registered to vote.
Giving every adult citizen $5,000 would therefore cost almost $1.2 trillion. That is around $220 billion (€189bn) more than the Pentagon’s entire $961 billion (€825bn) budget request for 2026, according to figures by the Congressional Budget Office. Limiting the payment to registered voters would cost around $870 billion.
A $5,000 cheque would give each adult more than they received through the two rounds of direct federal payments approved during Trump’s first term.
What could it cover?
Average US household spending was $78,535 (€67,400) in 2024, or $6,545 (€5,620) a month, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
If two adults sharing a home each received $5,000 (€4,290), their combined payment of $10,000 (€8,580) would cover around 11 months of an average household’s total food spending, or about 18 months of grocery spending. These calculations use 2024 expenditure figures adjusted for the 6.45% increase in consumer prices by July 2026.
Housing was the largest expense, accounting for 33.4% of the average household budget. Households spent $26,266 (€22,540) on housing in 2024, equivalent to around $27,960 (€24,000) in July 2026 prices. Two $5,000 payments would therefore cover just over four months of average housing costs.
The combined payment could also cover around eight-and-a-half months of average transport costs or 18 months of healthcare spending. At almost six times the average household’s annual education spending, it could theoretically cover nearly six years of those costs.
However, the education figure is an average across all households, including those with little or no education spending.
What would it cost?
Trump’s proposal comes shortly after the country’s national debt passed $40 trillion (€34.3 trillion) for the first time. The US is also running an annual budget deficit of nearly $1.8 trillion (€1.54 trillion), while inflation remains a concern.
“The idea that we’ve had fiscal success is backwards and bordering on laughable,” said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a Washington-based think tank. “We don’t have surpluses to give away.”
Concerns about the country’s debt are being compounded by high government borrowing costs.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose above 4.85% on Wednesday, its highest level in nearly three years, before easing slightly, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.29%, close to the 18-year high of 5.33% reached in August.
Treasury yields help determine borrowing costs across the US economy, so sustained increases can make mortgages and business loans more expensive, slow economic growth and weigh on share prices.
With the government already running a large deficit, it remains unclear how the proposed payments would be financed.
Vance suggested that they could be funded using US tariff revenue.
The government expects to collect about $406 billion (€348 billion) in customs duties during the 2026 fiscal year, according to the US Treasury Department. This includes all customs duties, not only tariffs introduced by Trump.
That would cover only around a third of the estimated $1.18 trillion (€1.01 trillion) cost of paying every adult citizen $5,000 (€4,290). Even limiting the payments to the country’s 174 million registered voters would cost around $870 billion (€747 billion) — more than twice the projected annual customs revenue.
When Trump discussed a similar payment earlier this year, he proposed a $2,000 (€1,720) dividend and said he did not believe he needed congressional approval.
Last year, Trump gave members of the military a $1,776 (€1,520) cheque that he called a “warrior dividend”.
“I will get a bill ready so that we can get the Trump Dividend passed immediately after the November 3rd election,” Republican Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio wrote on X late Wednesday. “Because Republicans (and America) will win!”
However, Congress would need to approve the proposed payments.
Trump’s proposal would be legal because the payment would be available regardless of how someone voted — or whether they voted at all — according to New Mexico-based lawyer John Day.
“This is a campaign promise,” Day said. “It’s not a payment to individuals to try to get them to vote in a particular way.”
Republicans are on the defensive as they seek to protect their narrow House majority against strong political headwinds. Trump is unpopular and polls indicate that most Americans oppose the war in Iran. Even the Senate, which Republicans once appeared well placed to retain, is now considered competitive.
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