International scientists issue 2026 State of the Climate report, finding climate progress amid intensifying risks
A new report published in the journal BioScience warns that “Earth’s climate system is moving deeper into uncharted territory,” with seven of 16 climate-related planetary vital signs now at record extremes. The study, co-led by Dr. William J. Ripple of Oregon State University and Dr. Christopher Wolf of Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates, describes the situation plainly: “We are witnessing the rapid destabilization of the Earth’s climate system. This is no longer a warning for the future; it is a diagnosis of the present.”
The vital signs tracked in the report span greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures, the oceans, ice, Earth’s energy balance, and wildfire. The authors also track indicators of the human activities driving these changes, including energy use, food production, economic growth, and land-use change. Together, these metrics provide a sweeping view of Earth’s changing climate, as well as its consequences and causes.
The authors report that concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all reached record levels again in 2026. In May 2026, atmospheric carbon dioxide exceeded 428 parts per million, roughly 50% above pre-industrial levels and generally higher than any time in the last 2 million years. Fossil fuel consumption rose by 0.9% in 2025, with oil, coal, and gas all reaching record highs, and annual energy-related carbon dioxide emissions surpassed 41 gigatons for the first time.
The authors note that the rate of global warming appears to have accelerated, from about 0.05°C per decade between 1880 and 1970 to about 0.36°C per decade between 2010 and 2024. “At current rates, 2°C above pre-industrial levels could be reached before 2050,” they write. According to preliminary data, say the authors, glacier thickness and Greenland ice mass are at record lows, while ocean heat content and sea level are pressing record highs.
The report documents the growing human toll of extreme weather over the past year. In October 2025, Hurricane Melissa caused 95 deaths and more than US$12 billion in damages across the Caribbean; in November 2025, a tropical storm and monsoon rains in Indonesia caused 708 deaths; and in June 2026, a severe heatwave in Europe caused approximately 14,000 deaths, according to a preliminary estimate. “All of these events were at least partly attributable to climate change,” the authors note.
The authors also highlight escalating risks from climate tipping elements, including a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and increasing vulnerability of the Amazon rainforest, where “the combined effects of warming and deforestation could push it past an irreversible threshold at just 1.5°C–1.9°C of warming.” They caution that “continued warming and interacting feedbacks may increase the risk of a self-reinforcing ‘hothouse’ trajectory characterized by weakening carbon sinks, accelerating ice loss, ecosystem degradation, and additional greenhouse gas release.”
Despite these worrying trends, the report points to encouraging signs of change. Low-carbon sources provided roughly 43% of global electricity generation in 2025, and solar and wind energy consumption grew by approximately 18%. “In 2025, for the first time in more than a century of coal-dominated electricity generation, renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydropower, and other renewables) have surpassed coal globally, marking a potentially historic turning point in the transition toward clean energy,” the authors write. Still, the authors stress that growth in energy demand meant renewable expansion “was insufficient to displace fossil fuel consumption.”
The report argues that cutting emissions remains essential, but it must now be accompanied by rapid adaptation.. The authors highlight “fast-track” measures that reduce near-term risks while delivering co-benefits: “mangrove restoration can offer protection against storm surges while enhancing carbon sequestration; shifts toward plant-based diets can reduce the risk of climate-related food system instability while increasing soil carbon and reducing pressure on biodiversity; and distributed solar can reduce the risk of storm-related grid failure while increasing energy security.”
The authors stress the importance of transformative change and collective action, pointing to the emergence of "positive social tipping points." They note that “even relatively small actions, when multiplied across communities and institutions, can contribute to broader societal change and help strengthen public support for climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.”
Ripple, Wolf, and colleagues emphasize that climate change is also a matter of justice: “the communities least responsible for historical emissions, particularly in the Global South and small island states, are bearing disproportionately severe and early consequences.” Yet they maintain that “the future trajectory of both the climate system and human societies has not yet been fully determined. The decisions made during the coming years will strongly influence whether future generations inherit a planet with an unstable climate system or a more resilient and sustainable world.”
The full report is available in BioScience.
Journal
BioScience
Article Title
The 2026 state of the climate report: challenges and opportunities
Article Publication Date
14-Oct-2026
Report: Earth’s climate system increasingly unstable, but signs of positive change emerge
image:
Alaska glacier
view moreCredit: Oregon State University
CORVALLIS, Ore. – The seventh annual report by an international coalition led by Oregon State University scientists says the Earth’s climate system is quickly becoming unstable and that while signs of important societal changes are emerging, greater and faster action is necessary.
“Rapid destabilization is now a diagnosis rather than a warning for the future,” said one of the report’s co-lead authors, William Ripple, distinguished professor emeritus in the OSU College of Forestry. “The accelerating expansion of renewable energy and advances in battery storage are encouraging, but they are only part of the transformation needed to stabilize the climate system. A more resilient and sustainable future depends heavily on big cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, effective adaptation and ecosystem protection.”
Published today in BioScience, “The 2026 state of the climate report: challenges and opportunities” notes that of the 16 climate indicators the coalition tracks, seven are at record extremes and multiple others are also trending in the wrong direction, raising concerns about interacting feedbacks and an increasing risk of crossing critical tipping points.
The purpose of the annual report, Ripple said, is to monitor the Earth’s “vital signs” and to encourage global leaders and policymakers to “move away from the business-as-usual approach that’s persisted despite decades of evidence showing that human activities are driving dangerous changes in the climate.”
The atmospheric carbon dioxide level of 428 parts per million is higher now than at any time in the last 2 million years and roughly 50% greater than it was before the dawn of the Industrial Age in the late 1700s. July 2026 was the hottest month on record in the contiguous United States, and global ocean temperatures also reached a record high in July.
The authors stress that cutting emissions remains essential but is no longer sufficient by itself. They call for rapidly deployable adaptation measures such as urban cooling, wetland and mangrove restoration, wildfire preparedness, water conservation, distributed solar energy and more resilient food systems.
“With low-carbon sources now providing about 43% of global electricity, we may be witnessing the emergence of what we call the ‘Age of Electricity,’” said co-lead author Christopher Wolf, a former Oregon State postdoctoral researcher. “That is a reason for hope, but fossil fuel use and emissions are still at record levels, so the transition needs to accelerate dramatically.”
Human activity, mainly fossil fuel consumption, is taxing the planet’s life-support systems by driving profound shifts in the atmosphere, oceans and biosphere, the authors note, to the point that extreme heat, floods, droughts, storms and wildfires are no longer rare events.
“Climate change is increasingly interacting with global biodiversity loss, freshwater stress, food insecurity, pathogens and geopolitical instability, amplifying risks across interconnected human and natural systems,” the authors write.
They add that communities least responsible for historical emissions, particularly in the Global South and small island nations, are already bearing disproportionately severe consequences.
Also from the report:
- The rate of global warming appears to be accelerating, nearly doubling from about 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade from 1970 to 2010 to about 0.36 degrees per decade since then.
- A very strong El Niño expected to develop this fall could add substantially to global warming in the coming months, putting 2026 on track to be one of the hottest years on record.
- Glacier thickness and Greenland ice mass are at all-time lows. In recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has experienced intense melting episodes, contributing to a sixfold increase in summer meltwater volume.
- Global tree cover loss due to fires reached 10.8 million hectares in 2025, an area roughly the size of Tennessee and the third-highest level on record. Increasing wildfire activity is both a consequence of climate change and a growing source of greenhouse gas emissions.
- Fossil fuel consumption increased by 0.9% in 2025, with oil (+1.0%), coal (+0.4%) and gas (+1.3%) all reaching record highs, and annual energy-related carbon dioxide emissions surpassed 41 gigatonnes for the first time.
- And on a positive note, the rate of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has declined for four consecutive years, and solar and wind energy consumption has increased by about 18%.
“Many climate solutions are already technically feasible and increasingly cost competitive, but because climate change is driven by interconnected energy, economic, ecological and social systems, truly meaningful progress will likely depend on integrated responses across multiple sectors and scales,” Ripple said. “In many emerging economies, climate mitigation must also be pursued alongside pressing development objectives, including expanding access to affordable and reliable energy.”
Improved climate tools, Ripple notes, are already helping policymakers, researchers, educators and the public better understand the complexity of climate solutions. As an example, the authors cite the En-ROADS Climate Solutions Simulator, which allows users to see how combinations of policies, technologies and societal changes could influence future warming, energy systems, economic outcomes and climate risks.
“Achieving the necessary emissions reductions and societal shifts at the speed and scale required depends on deep transformations in energy generation, consumption patterns, food systems, economic priorities and governance structures, in ways that also promote biodiversity protection,” said Wolf, now a scientist with Corvallis-based Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates. “Without those transformations, we won’t be able to stabilize the climate system and reduce the risk of crossing dangerous Earth system tipping points.”
Also collaborating on the report were Jacob Bukoski of the OSU College of Forestry; Jillian Gregg of Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates; Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania; Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Unai Pascual of the Basque Centre for Climate Change; Chi Xu of Nanjing University; Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the Australian National University; Thomas M. Newsome of the University of Sydney; and Anjal Prakash of FLAME University.
The CO2 Foundation provided partial funding.
Journal
BioScience
Method of Research
Meta-analysis
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
The 2026 state of the climate report: challenges and opportunities
Article Publication Date
14-Oct-2026
No comments:
Post a Comment