For the first time in the history of transatlantic polling, more Europeans view the United States as a threat to their continent than view China in the same light, a seismic shift in public sentiment.
A Politico European Pulse survey conducted between March 13 and 21 across Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain, with at least 1,000 adults surveyed in each country, found that an average of 36% of respondents considered the US a threat to Europe.
In contrast, only 29% expressed equivalent concerns about Beijing. One thing remains unchanged: Russia retains its position as the number one perceived enemy, cited by 70% of respondents across the six countries.
The headline figures mask stark national variations, revealing the fractured geography of European opinion. In Spain, 51% of respondents described the US as a threat, while only 17% considered it a close ally.
Italy followed at 46%, Belgium at 42%, and France at 37%. The biggest shift recorded was in France, where in 2021 only 21% considered the United States a threat.
Only 12% of respondents across the six countries now see the US as a close ally. Among young Europeans aged 18 to 34, the figure describing the US as a threat reaches 55%, and 63% of Europeans consider the United States an unreliable ally.
Poland stands as the clear outlier. Only 13% of Polish respondents viewed America as a threat, with an equal share labelling it a competitor. A significant 34% considered the US a partner, and 24% a close ally, figures that reflect Warsaw's deep dependence on the US security umbrella and its positioning on Nato's eastern flank facing Russia.
Politico, which commissioned the survey, said these perceptions are linked to US President Donald Trump's policies. Since taking office just over a year ago, Trump has imposed tariffs on European allies, pushed for the annexation of Greenland from Denmark, and started a war with Iran, jeopardising global energy stability.
The Iran conflict has proved particularly damaging to European perceptions of Washington. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February has triggered a severe energy crisis across the continent, with European officials largely excluded from decision-making over a war that has driven gas prices up by 60 to 70% and petrol by as much as 34% in some markets. The crisis has exposed Europe's limited influence over major security events, now driven and commanded primarily by the United States.
Trump's repeated public questioning of the value of Nato, and his description of Ukraine as "not our war", has added a security dimension to the economic grievances generated by his tariff agenda.
The transatlantic relationship is under exceptional strain, with Europe's security environment described by the EU Institute for Security Studies as "bleak and uncertain," and a US withdrawal of security guarantees now listed among the most acute risks facing the bloc.
The finding that Europeans fear the US more than China does not reflect any warming toward Beijing. Rather, it captures the speed and scale of Washington's reputational collapse. In France and Belgium, more respondents identified China as a threat, 43% and 38%, respectively, than said the same about the US, 37% and 42%, respectively, suggesting the US-as-threat finding is driven primarily by southern European sentiment rather than a uniform continental shift.
The data also points to a European public that is anxious but not mobilised. Only 19% of respondents said they would be willing to take up arms and fight in the event of an attack.
On Ukraine, opinion is sharply divided along national lines: in Germany, 45% said Europe is "not doing enough," while in Italy, 42% called the aid "too much."
The survey lands at a moment when European governments are racing to construct defence architectures less dependent on Washington, with the EU's rearmament programme accelerating and Article 42.7 receiving more serious attention than at any point since it was written into the Lisbon Treaty. Whether the political will exists to build genuine European strategic autonomy, however, remains deeply uncertain.
What is not uncertain is the scale of the reputational damage. Trust in the United States is at a record low across Europe's largest economies, with Washington now regarded as a greater threat than North Korea by a measurable share of the European public.
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