Saturday, January 02, 2021

Betting markets see Republican win in Georgia’s crucial runoffs, while polls give edge to Democrats

Last Updated: Jan. 2, 2021
 First Published: Dec. 31, 2020
By Victor Reklaitis

Peach State’s two runoff elections on Tuesday will determine which party controls U.S. Senate


Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock are facing off in runoff elections against Georgia's two Republican incumbent senators, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. 
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Ahead of Georgia’s two U.S. Senate runoff elections on Tuesday that will determine the balance of power in Washington, betting markets are signaling some confidence in the Republican Party’s prospects, while polls indicate a slight advantage for Democrats.

Betting market PredictIt gives Republicans a 65% chance of staying in charge of the Senate as of Thursday. Other sites that enable wagers on politics, such as BetOnline, also have the GOP favored to keep its grip on the 100-seat chamber.


Republicans already control 50 seats following November’s elections and can remain the majority party by winning just one of the two Georgia races. They then would provide a check on policies backed by Democratic President-elect Joe Biden and the Democratic-run House of Representatives.

But Democratic challenger Rev. Raphael Warnock leads Republican incumbent Sen. Kelly Perdue by 1.8 percentage points in a RealClearPolitics moving average of polls for one of the Georgia runoffs. And in RCP’s average of surveys for the other Georgia contest, Democrat Jon Ossoff is ahead of GOP Sen. David Perdue by 0.8 percentage point. To be sure, pollsters are coming off a rough November in which they missed badly on some races.

“I think the races are closer than the betting odds would suggest,” said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi, a broker, in a note on Wednesday. Innes also said the Georgia runoffs could be “the next key catalyst” for traders, but added that “a Democratic sweep with such a tight majority should not mean aggressive corporate tax hikes as the market SPX, +0.64% may fear.”

Related: If the Democrats win the Senate, Big Tech better be ready for a bigger fight

And see: Democrats’ chances of Senate takeover rise, and that could affect health care, energy and financial services

Many analysts view the Georgia races as nail-biters, and some have warned that winners might not be declared for days, as happened in the 2020 presidential contest.

“This election is about as close as you can get,” wrote J. Miles Coleman and Niles Francis in a recent analysis for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “It’s hard to tell who has the edge, but undoubtedly, the party that does a better job turning out the base will be the party that carries the day.”

With turnout considered critical, both Biden and President Donald Trump have campaigned for their party’s candidates in Georgia, and they are slated to make final in-person appeals to Peach State voters on Monday. Biden defeated Trump in Georgia by less than 12,000 votes.

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