TROTSKYIST ANALYSIS
Against Russian imperialism, hands off Ukraine!
Putin has just finished his speech to the people of Russia. The man who calls himself president began his speech with an anti-communist eulogy, claiming that Vladimir Ilyich Lenin was the creator of Ukraine and that its existence in its present form is the result of the Bolsheviks' national policy. By accusing the Bolsheviks of "feeding the nationalists", Putin is covering up the worst and most repugnant form of nationalism - Great Russian chauvinism.
In this context, Putin threatened to show Ukrainians what "de-communisation" means. Given the context of his speech, these words could be seen as nothing less than a threat of direct intervention in Ukraine. Not surprisingly, while criticising Leninist national policies, Putin threw stones at the planned economy, nationalisations and praised Stalinism.
The persecution of the opposition, corruption, rising prices for goods and services, the lack of independent courts and everything Putin said about Ukraine gives the impression that he was talking about Russia. We don't deny that the reforms underway in Ukraine are leading to monstrous social inequalities, impoverishment, unemployment and other problems. But we firmly believe that the fate of Ukraine must be decided by the workers and all the oppressed in that country, not by Russian military hardware and pro-Russian lobbyists. Ukraine's debts to the Russian Federation, which Putin reminded us of, are no reason for a military invasion. The Ukrainian people have not become indebted to Russia; let the Russian government claim these debts from those to whom it has given them, including Viktor Yanukovych, who resides safely on the territory of the Russian Federation.
The violation of the Minsk agreements is the work not only of Kiev, but also of Moscow, which has no intention of ceasing to support its imperialist enclaves in the so-called "People's Republics".
We stand for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops, an end to all military support for the armed formations in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, a ceasefire and the right of Ukrainian citizens to decide the fate of their country without the imperialists of the East and West!
21 February 2022
Translated for fourth.international
Same author
NATO mobilizes troops as UK MPs, US congressmen call for air war against Russia
Three days into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the conflict is showing dangerous signs of spiraling into a much wider war.
As Russian forces entered the capital city of Kiev, Ukraine, the Ukrainian defense minister estimated that hundreds of Russian soldiers had died in the conflict so far. Ukraine has reported over 137 casualties, including civilians. A first attempt at holding talks between Kiev and Moscow failed on Friday. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has since appealed to Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to mediate in the conflict.
On Friday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced the deployment, for the first time, of NATO’s 40,000-troop-strong rapid response force, created in 2003.
“Yesterday, NATO Allies activated our defense plans,” Stoltenberg said on Friday, adding that the alliance’s forces would be positioned “on land, at sea, and in the air.”
“The United States, Canada and European Allies have deployed thousands more troops to the eastern part of the Alliance,” Stoltenberg continued. “We have over 100 jets at high alert operating in over 30 different locations. And over 120 ships from the High North to the Mediterranean. Including three strike carrier groups.”
Stoltenberg added, “We speak about thousands of troops. We speak about air and maritime capabilities. They are only actually part of the standing naval groups. We have many planes operating in the eastern part of the Alliance. And then, several Allies have partly already assigned troops and forces to the NATO Response Force.”
Stoltenberg called Russia’s actions “the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades,” declaring, “We will do whatever it takes to defend every ally and every inch of NATO territory.”
The announcement was hailed by advocates of confrontation with Russia. “Hearing now that NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) has been activated. Excellent news,” tweeted former US Ambassador to Russia and arch-warmonger Michael McFaul.
UK Defense Minister James Heappey announced that the UK would send armed forces to Estonia “earlier than planned,” with the Royal Welsh battle group arriving in the country shortly. A further 1,000 UK troops will be on standby “to support Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Poland,” Heappey said.
But the defense minister warned of the dangers of an open engagement between NATO and Russia, observing that the conflict could quickly become “existential.”
Both in the UK and the US, significant forces within the political establishment are advocating for just such an “existential” conflict.
Heappey’s warnings were directed to MPs advocating for an establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, meaning that NATO surface-to-air missiles and aircraft would engage and attempt to shoot down Russian combat planes.
The imposition of a no-fly zone “would be a significant and real help for the people of Ukraine,” said Tory MP Peter Bone.
In the United States, Congressman Adam Kinzinger demanded that the United States take this measure. “Declare a #NoFlyZone over Ukraine,” Kinzinger tweeted. “History teaches that taking a stand is inevitable and gets more costly with time. We own the skies, Russia cannot hold a candle to our Air power. Do this. Putin is too dangerous to hope he is satisfied with ‘just Ukraine.’”
The claim that the United States “own(s) the skies” in Eastern Europe is false. Russia operates what is arguably the world’s most advanced Anti-Access and Area Denial (A2/AD) system, which would inflict significant losses on NATO aircraft that sought to engage Russian air forces. If Moscow’s aircraft were to come under attack from sites within NATO territory, Russia could respond with cruise missile strikes on the batteries, triggering NATO Article 5 and starting a world war.
This insane demand won support on both sides of the aisle, with Democratic Party operative Jon Cooper demanding, “The U.S. must declare a no-fly zone in Ukraine—NOW!!”
In an exchange on BBC’s Radio 4 Today, UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said that the imposition of a no-fly zone would be an act of war against Russia.
“To do a no-fly zone I would have to put British fighter jets against Russian; NATO would have to declare war on Russia.” This would “trigger a European war,” he said.
Any such war threatens the use of nuclear weapons. As CNN military analyst James “Spider” Marks said on live television Thursday, “I would hate to think that [Vladimir Putin] might think that he can get away with a tactical nuke, and that there wouldn’t be a concomitant response. That then begins the cascading effect of the end of times.”
On Thursday, US President Joe Biden said that 7,000 US troops would deploy to Germany. But the Pentagon clarified that some of them could be forward deployed to Russia’s borders as part of a NATO rapid response force.
Military.com reported, “The U.S. has already deployed about 12,000 troops and equipment such as F-35 Lightning II fighter jets and Apache attack helicopters to Germany, Poland, Romania and the Baltic states. The Pentagon has said more than 11,000 troops have been put on heightened alert for deployment since January, but it could not provide exact figures on Friday of those who remain on alert or have been deployed.”
These developments come as further measures have been taken to shut the Russian population off from the world economy. On Friday, Poland closed its airspace to Russian airlines, while British Airways and Virgin Atlantic have stopped using Russian airspace, Kommersant reported. S&P just downgraded the credit ratings of both Ukraine and Russia.
On Friday, California Democrat Eric Swalwell said that “kicking every Russian student out of the United States … should … be on the table.”
While the United States and NATO governments hope to benefit, for both domestic and geopolitical reasons, from a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the war threatens to have massive and incalculable consequences not only for the populations of that region but for all of humanity.
As the International Committee of the Fourth International said in its statement yesterday, the opposition among the people of Ukraine, Russia, and the whole world must “be developed as a conscious political movement for socialism. This means the building of the International Committee of the Fourth International and its affiliated Socialist Equality Parties in every country.”
No to war with Ukraine! Against Russian military intervention!
The Marxist Tendency (Russia)24 February 2022
The following is a statement by Russian comrades of the International Marxist Tendency, denouncing the invasion of Ukraine that began in the early hours of today. Against military intervention! Against chauvinism! No war between the peoples, no peace between the classes! Read the original in Russian here. Also, this statement should be read in conjunction with the previous one by our Russian comrades, and the latest analysis by marxist.com editor Alan Woods.
In the early morning of 24 February, the Russian army launched a military operation against Ukraine, inflicting airstrikes on military units, air defence systems and ammunition depots. In a video message to the nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin justified the operation by citing an appeal from the people's republics of the Donbas requesting military protection. He said that the objective of the operation is not the occupation of Ukraine, but its demilitarisation and denazification. He called on the servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to lay down their arms and not obey the “anti-people junta that is robbing the people.”
In our previous articles, we, the International Marxist Tendency (IMT), assessed the likelihood of a direct military clash between Russia and Ukraine as extremely small. This was due to the fact that our analysis focused on the interests of Russian imperialism, its capabilities and past behaviour. A full-scale war in Ukraine was then seen as an extremely dangerous adventure for the Putin regime with an uncertain outcome, which would be accompanied by enormous costs for Russia. The situation, however, consistently developed from bad to worse, and eventually spiralled towards this catastrophic scenario. Putin chose the adventure, apparently counting on the Ukrainian state to crumble under his first blows, after which it would only be necessary to carry out a blitzkrieg and put a new loyal government in power. As with the recognition of the people's republics, one cannot speak of a “last-minute decision based on the circumstances”, because the video message about the start of the operation, as it turned out, was recorded on 21 February.
A significant part of Russian society and the Russian left justified both the recognition of the republics and the entry of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine by saying that this would stop the shelling of the Donbas and end the eight-year-long hell of bombing for millions of people. This contained a certain amount of truth, although in our previous statement we stressed the negative consequences of the recognition of independence, condemning both recognition and intervention. But now that the missiles have flown into Ukraine, it will not be possible to talk about bringing in troops for the sake of “ending the war”.
It is hard to find anything more hypocritical than the statements issued by Putin and other Russian officials about ‘denazification’. Contrary to their rhetorical appeal to the memory of the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945, and the sacrifices of the Soviet people in the fight against Nazism, the historical model of the Putin regime is not the Soviet Union. Rather, Putin’s model is the Russian Empire, as he has directly and repeatedly explained. His long speech on 21 February regarding the introduction of troops into the LPR (Luhansk People’s Republic) and DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) was emphatically anti-communist. It was based on the stance of Russian chauvinism, and not Soviet internationalism. In Russia, Nazi collaborators are also regularly honoured, although by no means on the same scale as in Ukraine. The White movement is glorified and communists are persecuted, including functionaries of the Communist Party. The communist parties in the people’s republics of Donbas still operate illegally. The policy of the Russian authorities is one of national chauvinism, anti-communism, anti-democracy and the robbery of the workers. Under such conditions, only extremely naive people can perceive Russia as an ‘anti-fascist’ force.
Regardless of the outcome of the war, Ukrainian and Russian chauvinism will rise to new heights. The fierce struggle against chauvinism of all stripes, is the duty and urgent task of communist internationalists today / Image: kremlin.ru
Even if Putin's blitzkrieg succeeds and the existing government of Ukraine is dispersed, whatever it is replaced with by force of Russian bayonets will be just as reactionary, only with a different colouration. It cannot be otherwise. We only need to consider the forces that the Russian regime has nurtured in Donbas for the past eight years; how it has killed objectionable field commanders; and the motivations that have guided Ukrainian politicians in the same period. Given the curtailment of bourgeois democracy in Russia itself, one cannot expect that Putin will contribute to its construction in Ukraine. We will not see ‘denazification’, but ‘nazification’ under another flag.
War is the most difficult subject to analyse. Of course, we cannot predict the outcome of a military operation. But despite the huge material and technological superiority of the Russian Army over the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there is a chance that the Ukrainian army and state will not simply be defeated within a couple of days. Under those circumstances, the most nightmarish scenario for the working people of Russia and Ukraine will come to life: a protracted, bloody slaughterhouse, in which the workers are the livestock. But regardless of the outcome of the war, Ukrainian and Russian chauvinism will rise to new heights and a deep wound will have been inflicted on the relations between Ukrainian and Russian working people that will last for many decades to come. Therefore, the struggle for the reconciliation of peoples, the fierce struggle against chauvinism of all stripes, is the duty and urgent task of communist internationalists today.
The most important task of honest Russian communists is to directly oppose Russia’s military intervention. The sanctioning of this operation under the pretext of “protecting the Russian population”, “fighting against Nazism”, and so on is a direct betrayal of the principles of internationalism. The position of the leadership of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which formally offered Putin their recognition of the people’s republics of the Donbas, and then approved the introduction of troops and the military operation, has caused the greatest harm in this respect. It is noteworthy that this is happening at the very moment when members of the Communist Party itself, from Moscow to Vladivostok, are facing repression. We believe that consistent communists in the ranks of this party should strongly protest against the fact that the leadership has not only capitulated to Russian chauvinism, but is leading its procession. The time has come for all loyal communists to remember the lessons of the collapse of the Second International; to remember Lenin's struggle against the social chauvinists and the principles on which the Communist International was founded!
We call on all communists in Ukraine, Russia and Donbas to oppose the war. We urge the military personnel of the Russian Federation not to carry out criminal orders. We call for the fight against chauvinism of all stripes – for the international brotherhood of peoples.
AGAINST MILITARY INTERVENTION!
AGAINST RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM!
AGAINST CHAUVINISM OF ALL KINDS!
NO WAR BETWEEN PEOPLES! NO PEACE BETWEEN CLASSES!
Imperialist hypocrisy and the invasion of Ukraine
Alan Woods24 February 2022MARXIST.COM
So, it has started. Russian forces have unleashed a massive attack on Ukraine. In the early hours of the morning, in a short televised address, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” at dawn. Within minutes of the broadcast, at about 5am Ukrainian time, explosions were heard near major Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kiev.
In previous weeks, Putin built up an estimated 190,000 troops close to Ukraine’s borders, while European leaders shuttled between Kiev and Moscow, seeking a diplomatic solution. But one does not mobilise such a huge number of troops, tanks and guns just in order to dance a diplomatic minuet.
In the immediate fog of war, with only scraps of information at our disposal, it is impossible to give an accurate appraisal of the military situation. But the scope of the Russian attack appears to be massive. To cite one report:
"Ukraine’s interior ministry reported that the country was under attack from cruise and ballistic missiles, with Russia appearing to target infrastructure near major cities such as Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Dnipro.
"Explosions from artillery rockets lit up the night sky as shelling began near Mariupol, as videos showed. A senior adviser to Ukraine’s interior ministry said that it appeared Russian troops may soon move on Kharkiv, which is about 20 miles from the border. Locals in Kiev sought safety in bomb shelters as explosions were heard outside the city."
And another:
"Some of the first explosions after Putin announced the operation were heard near Kramatorsk, the headquarters of the Ukrainian army’s operations centre near the Russian-controlled territories in south-east Ukraine. Explosions were also reported at military headquarters, and at military warehouses."
There have also been reports of an amphibious assault on the key port city of Mariupol and ground forces moving in from Belarus, Crimea and from Russia. The Russian military claimed it was not targeting population centres. “High-precision weapons are disabling the military infrastructure, air defence facilities, military airfields and aviation of the Ukrainian army,” the Russian Defence Ministry said in a statement carried by state-owned news agency Ria Novosti.
Putin’s speech
The stage for the offensive was set on Wednesday night, after the leaders of the two Russian-controlled territories in east Ukraine sent an official request to Moscow for military aid to “help repel the aggression of the Ukrainian armed forces in order to avoid civilian casualties and a humanitarian catastrophe in the Donbas”.
An examination of Putin’s speech from this morning tells us something about his aims and intentions. Every war must have some justification and, in this case, Putin mentioned: “A hostile anti-Russia is being created on our historic lands.”
Putin’s speech was really a declaration of war, but he studiously avoided mentioning it / Image: kremlin.ru
This claim is constantly rubbished by the West as mere propaganda. “How can poor little Ukraine pose a threat to Russia?” they snort. That is of course, a question that is supposed to answer itself. On its own, clearly Ukraine does not represent much of a threat. But as part of an imperialist military bloc led by the United States, planted on Russia’s doorstep, it most certainly would.
At the heart of the present dispute is, therefore, Ukraine’s future membership of NATO. Guaranteeing against this was a central Russian demand, which has been repeatedly refused by Washington – a refusal that was all the more absurd because the West acknowledges that Ukraine does not meet the minimum requirements for NATO membership at this point in time. It is not quite clear whether acceptance of this demand would, in itself, have prevented an invasion. But continually rejecting it out of hand made it inevitable.
The second requirement in any war is to gain the element of surprise and to put the blame on the other side. In this case, it was the shelling of the Donbas region. But that has gone on uninterruptedly for some years.
However, the immediate excuse is really a secondary consideration, since once the war becomes necessary, any excuse can be found. And as far as the element of surprise is concerned, that has been achieved very effectively, with the active assistance of messrs Biden and Johnson. They have behaved like the little boy who cried “Wolf!” so often that, when the wolf finally appeared at the door, nobody believed him.
Putin’s speech was really a declaration of war, but he studiously avoided mentioning it. This man, who is the nearest thing I know to an Egyptian Sphinx, likes to keep everyone guessing. “We have taken the decision to conduct a special military operation,” he said, without even hinting on just how special it would be.
And what would be the aim of this “special military operation”? He claimed it was for the “demilitarisation and denazification” of Ukraine. “We do not intend to occupy Ukraine,” he said, but at the same time, he had a warning for other nations who might be tempted to get involved:
“To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me,” he said.
A fairly clear message, I think.
Can Ukraine resist?
The immediate reaction of the Kiev government was words of defiance:
“Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” said Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba. “Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes. This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky used a video address to appeal to the Russian public for help after an attempt to speak to Putin was unsuccessful. “Do Russians want wars? I would very much like to answer this question. But the answer is up to you,” he said.
He also vowed to defend the country, saying: “If someone attempts to take away our land, our freedom, our lives, the lives of our children, we will defend ourselves. By attacking, you will see our faces, not our backs, but our faces.”
He announced that martial law was now being imposed across all of Ukraine.
“No panic. We're strong. We're ready for anything. We'll defeat everyone, because we are Ukraine,” the Ukrainian leader said. Ahead of Russia's attack, he had made a last-ditch attempt to avert war, warning that Russia could start “a major war in Europe” and urging Russian citizens to oppose it.
Brave words! But this is just so much empty bravado. The Ukrainian army is in disarray, being taken hopelessly off guard by the suddenness of the attack. In any case, it was in no position to resist the might of the Russian army. The moment the West announced that it did not intend to send troops to defend Ukraine, the matter was settled in advance.
The assertion that there is no panic in the capital is belied by television pictures that show long lines of cars fleeing Kiev.
From the very start, the Kiev government has been a picture of helplessness. By stubbornly insisting on its right to join NATO – a clear provocation to Moscow – it threw itself unto the arms of the West as its only hope for survival. That was a very foolish mistake.
For all their public displays of bravado, the imperialists have not the slightest interest in the people of Ukraine. They are regarded as mere pawns in a cynical game of Great Power politics.
The Russian military claimed that all of Ukraine’s aviation bases were disabled in the barrage of missiles that began the Russian invasion. Smoke has been seen rising from near major airfields outside of Kharkiv and other cities in the east, and as far west as Ivano-Frankivsk, which is nearer to the border with Poland.
Thursday’s attack was preceded by a massive, continuous cyber-attack that targeted Ukraine’s ministries and banks, a form of hybrid warfare to sow confusion.
There have also been reports indicating that Russian forces have entered Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine’s border forces “are not putting up any resistance to Russian units”.
In a recent Facebook post, Dmitri Kovalevich a commentator based in Kiev paints a picture of Ukrainian forces in disarray:
“Unconfirmed messages on the Ukrainian web suggest that some 70 percent of recent western arms supplies for Ukraine were destroyed directly on arms depots. Our military is lamenting the fact that the depots were run by officers who turned out to be Russian agents, and simply blew them up.
“Update: all Turkish Bayractar drones were also destroyed right on the air fields.
"Donetsk rebels seized the city of Marioupol. Almost no resistance there from Ukraine’s army – they just walked into the city.
"Missiles that hit Ukraine’s military bases in Odessa were launched by underwater submarines.
“Reportedly, Ukraine’s border control checkpoints were captured in the Sumy region [north-east Ukraine]. Russian marines landed in Odessa region. Kiev anti-aircraft base was hit by ballistic missiles – within an hour Ukraine lost almost all its anti-aircraft systems.
“Mass fire from rocket-launchers along the entire frontline in Donbass. A Russian military column crossed the border in the Kharkov region.
“People from various regions of Ukraine report loud explosions, which happened simultaneously in Odessa, Kiev, Kramatorsk, Marioupol, Kharkov and Dnipro-city. This looks like large, timed explosives, detonated at once throughout the country.
“US intelligence drones left the airspace over Ukraine.
“Update: explosions hitting Ukraine's arms depots.
“Airspace over Ukraine is completely closed. Some jets flying to Kiev were ordered to turn back.”
It is clear that these reports, based on confused and partial information during the heat of the fighting, must be treated with some caution. But if only half of this is true, it shows that the Russians made sure that the military capabilities of Ukraine’s defences were destroyed, or at least severely impaired, before the invasion started.
It also paints a picture of demoralisation and lack of motivation in at least part of the Ukrainian forces, which contradicts the picture that has been peddled by western propaganda. Russia now has every incentive to move as fast as possible to seize the capital.
Military analysts have said they expect that Putin would send his forces in order to capture or surround Kiev. US Senator Marco Rubio, a member of the Senate’s select committee on intelligence, claims that “Russia’s airborne forces are attempting to take control of the airport in Kiev to… fly in forces to occupy the city.”
There were reports on Thursday evening on Russian state media that airborne troops had captured the airport in Boryspil near Kiev. Whether these reports are true or false, it is only a matter of time before the Ukrainian capital is in Russian hands. The war will then, to all intents and purposes, be over.
“Shock and horror”
Western leaders have fallen over themselves in their haste to condemn the invasion, which, if we are to believe them, will lead to something approaching Armageddon, with millions (sic!) of people killed and a bloody all-European war threatening the very existence of human civilization as we know it.
Joe Biden issued a written statement saying:
“The prayers of the entire world are with the people of Ukraine tonight as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces.”
“President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering,” Biden said. “Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable.”
“I am appalled by the horrific events in Ukraine and I have spoken to President Zelenskyy to discuss next steps. President Putin has chosen a path of bloodshed and destruction by launching this unprovoked attack on Ukraine.”
“We will hold the Kremlin accountable,” wrote Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU Commission, which had announced new sanctions against Moscow just hours before the attack.
Biden and co. never had the slightest intention of providing military support to Kiev. Their only contribution to the present crisis was a never-ending series of bellicose statements / Image: Gage Skidmore, Flickr
All of these fine, defiant words are contrasted with the fact that Biden and co. never had the slightest intention of providing military support to Kiev. Their only contribution to the present crisis was a never-ending series of bellicose statements, accompanied by dire threats of “severe” (but unspecified) consequences that would allegedly follow a Russian attack. These remarks, backed up by an obstinate intransigence to even consider Russia’s demands, helped to make an invasion inevitable.
In short, all these ladies and gentlemen were quite prepared to fight to the last drop of the blood – specifically, that of the Ukrainians.
Even more despicable was the rabid ranting that was coming out of London. If incendiary speeches could win wars, the stupid rhetoric delivered on the floor of the House of Commons would have had the Russian army scurrying back to barracks as fast as their boots could carry them.
“The UK and our allies will respond decisively,” growled Prime Minister Boris Johnson, more to impress his own Tory backbenchers, who have attacked him for his timid response to the man in the Kremlin.
Unfortunately, the historical record tells us that wars have never been won by words. Putin must have had a good laugh at this circus that passes for a parliament. That is, if he paid any attention to it at all, which we doubt very much.
And what are we to say about Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer? The most earnest desire of this right-wing Blairite is to make the Labour Party look as similar to the Tories as possible. His dream is to see it waving the Union Jack and the Stars and Stripes instead of the Red Flag.
So, it was no surprise to see him enthusiastically competing with Boris Johnson to prove who was the most ferocious enemy of Russia and the most ardent supporter of NATO.
The pot should not call the kettle black
All these words stink of hypocrisy. Where was the chorus of condemnation when the Americans and their “allies” (read: lackeys) launched a criminal and bloody war against Iraq? And what about their lying propaganda about non-existent “weapons of mass destruction”, that were supposed to be ‘proved’ by fake documents, and served as a cynical cover for an act of blatant aggression against a sovereign state?
That disgusting act – as well as the equally criminal invasion of Afghanistan and the imperialist rape of Syria – led to the deaths of at least one million people. But why let the facts ruin a good story?
Parading on TV for the world to see, in their tailor-made suits and polished smiles, the western leaders are made to appear as the voice of reason and humanism. But scratch that surface, and you will find nothing but filth. There is no force on earth as reactionary and as drenched in blood as US imperialism and its puppets in the west.
The “United” Nations
As always, when war breaks out, our ears are suddenly assailed by a strange noise. It strongly resembles the bleating of frightened sheep, but in fact it is the Voice of Sanity, the True Voice of Humanity, or so we are led to believe.
I refer to the bleating of the pacifists: those pleasant, well-meaning souls who inform us that peace is good and war is bad. But wars have never been halted by sentimental appeals to decency and common sense. On the contrary, common sense tells us that throughout the ages, all serious matters have always been resolved by force of arms.
One of the most remarkable features of pacifists is their seemingly endless capacity for self-deception. They eagerly cling to each and any speech by a leader fervently declaring his or her attachment to peace. Or this or that empty resolution passed by a government or institution repeating the same banal sentiments. A naïve belief in the efficacy of such things make the pacifists useful dupes of the warmongers, since they lull people into a false sense of security.
Such speeches and resolutions merely serve as a convenient smokescreen to conceal the real, aggressive intentions that lie behind them. And the biggest fraud of all is the comically misnamed United Nations. This body was set up following the Second World War, supposedly to prevent new wars in the future.
And every time there is a danger of war, the pacifists and left reformists call on the UN to intervene. That is a stupid illusion and a deception of the people.
This is not the place to repeat the sorry history of that institution. Suffice it to say that the UN has never prevented any war, and has in fact been involved in more than one, as the case of Korea shows.
Between 1945 and 1989 there have been more than 300 wars internationally. Since WW2 and until today, the United States alone has waged 30 major military operations. The United Nations had no impact whatsoever on any of these events.
And today is no different. At the very time when Putin’s words were being broadcast, the UN security council was holding an emergency session, chaired by Russia itself, which holds the rotating presidency.
It was begun by the UN secretary general, António Guterres, who made a direct appeal: “President Putin – stop your troops from attacking Ukraine. Give peace a chance. Too many people have already died.”
But no sooner had these words left his lips, the first detonations were being reported. The final epitaph on the grave of pacifism and the United Nations can be left to the Bible: “crying peace, peace, when there is no peace.” (Jeremiah, 6: 14)
Lenin once said that capitalism is horror without end. It is a system with war and reactionary national chauvinism baked into its foundations, as a part of the international competition for markets and spheres of influence. How many millions of workers and poor have been marched onto the battlefields and sacrificed in the name of the ‘nation’, which is merely another word for the interests of the capitalist class?
As long as capitalism remains, war will remain a permanent feature, and there can be no talk of ‘united nations’, just like there can be no talk of a united nation. The only unity that is possible is international class unity.
It is the task of Marxists and socialists to expose the illusion that the interests of the workers and poor can be reconciled with those of the ruling class. The only way to fight war is to fight against the system which causes war.
What now?
While it is too early to say that the war is over, nobody can doubt that the Russians will achieve all their declared objectives in a very short time. It is not easy to determine the precise mood of the Ukrainian people. In any case, it will be different in the eastern region, where there are many Russian speakers; and the western part, which has always been more inclined to nationalism.
But the prevailing mood will be one of despair, pessimism and, above all, war-weariness and a strong desire for peace and some kind of stability. This may provide Putin the basis for setting up a pro-Russian government in Kiev.
While it is too early to say that the war is over, nobody can doubt that the Russians will achieve all their declared objectives in a very short time / Image: Igor Rudenko, Wikimedia Commons
It seems to me that a man like Poroshenko might fit the bill nicely as a replacement for Zelensky. True, he has made some very sharp speeches lately, condemning Putin. But that was to be expected, and behind the scenes, negotiations will be taking place, the outcome of which may yet surprise everyone. But that is just my guess…
Obviously, the question of Ukrainian membership of NATO will be off the agenda. Under the declared banner of denazification, there will be a purge of right-wing and ultra-nationalist organisations.
It is self-evident that the Russian occupying forces will want to rid themselves of actual or potential enemies, and this will certainly include the fascist and ultra-nationalist armed militias.
When Putin says he does not intend to occupy Ukraine, there is no reason to doubt his word. To be more accurate, he will not occupy it for long. That would be too difficult and very expensive.
No. He will withdraw, having made his point. And that is to show both to the Ukrainians and the rest of the world that Russia is not to be trifled with, that NATO’s expansion to the east must stop, that Ukraine and Georgia must never join it and that NATO must not place large concentrations of forces near Russia’s borders or hold provocative manoeuvres in the vicinity.
He keeps repeating that he is open to negotiate, and that is also the case. But he will now be negotiating from a position that is far stronger than before. He will press his demand for the removal of medium-range nuclear weapons from Eastern Europe and the effective reinstatement of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, which, you will recall, was unilaterally ditched by Mr. Trump.
Before withdrawing, just to make things absolutely clear, he may well pocket a few more pieces of Ukrainian territory, namely by expanding the newly recognised People’s Republics to include the whole of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
That, by the way, would be a purely defensive move, designed to create a buffer zone on Russia’s southern border. That would underline the impotence of Ukraine and remove it altogether from the list of possible future threats to Russia’s security – which was exactly what Putin did in the case of Georgia.
Incidentally, on re-reading what I wrote at that time, I think it fits the present situation very well, so I will quote it here:
“Yes, we recognise the right of the people of Georgia to self-determination, but not unconditionally. We do not defend their right to oppress other small nations, such as the Ossetians and the Abkhazians. Do we defend the right of the Abkhazian and Ossetians to self-determination? Yes, we do. But what kind of self-determination is it that depends entirely on subsidies from Moscow and allows itself to be used as the small change in the diplomatic intrigues of the latter to subvert and oppress the Georgians? In what way does this further the cause of socialism and the working class? In no way! This kind of ‘self-determination’ is a fraud and a lie. It is merely a convenient smokescreen to disguise the ambitions and greed of a larger power, namely Russia, which wants to take back its old possessions in the Caucasus. The absorption of these peoples into Russia will give them about the same ‘self-determination’ as that enjoyed by the Chechens – that is, none at all, just as there is no real self-determination in North Ossetia, Dagestan, or any other region in Russia.
“On the basis of capitalism no lasting solution can be found for the national question, whether in the Caucasus, the Balkans or the Middle East. Any attempt to ‘solve’ the national question on the basis of capitalism can only lead to new wars, terrorism, ‘ethnic cleansing’ and new waves of refugees, in a vicious spiral of violence and oppression. The question of the right to return for all refugees can never be solved on a capitalist basis. It would inevitably mean increased competition for scarce resources, jobs, houses, medical assistance, education, and other services. If there are not enough jobs and houses for all, it would inevitably fuel the fires of national or religious tensions. Partial reforms will not solve the problem. A root-and-branch solution is necessary. One cannot cure cancer with an aspirin!”
If we replace the word Georgia with Ukraine, and the Russian-speaking people of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions for the Ossetians and the Abkhazians, it fits like a glove. There is really nothing more to add to it.
The US will likely announce new sanctions against Russia on Monday, using tools to punish Russian banks and its larger financial system that Washington had so far held in reserve.
The sanctions imposed by the West will do nothing to alter Russia’s position, since Putin has taken steps to drastically reduce Russia’s dependence on the West. True, as an immediate reaction to the invasion, the Russian ruble fell to a record-low level since 2016, and trading was halted on the Russian stock market. But those effects will only be temporary. On the other hand, if sanctions lead to the cutting off of Russian gas supplies to Europe, it would have catastrophic effects and we would then expect a further rise in food and fuel prices.
What attitude should we take?
The present situation has inevitably been met by an intensified barrage of propaganda in the prostitute media. The aim of this is not at all to promote the interests and well-being of the people of Ukraine. On the contrary, their interests have been cynically sacrificed on the altar of imperialism.
It is imperative that we maintain a firm class position and do not allow ourselves to be dragged along by the lying imperialist propaganda machine.
Do we support Vladimir Putin and the Russian oligarchy whose interests he backs? No, Putin is no friend of the working class, either in Russia, Ukraine or anywhere else. The invasion of Ukraine is merely a continuation of his own cynical and reactionary agenda.
But that is not the question we should ask ourselves at this time. The question is: can we in any shape or form appear to be in the same camp as US and British imperialism? Can we associate ourselves, directly or indirectly with NATO, that reactionary imperialist gang? Or with Boris Johnson and the war-monger Liz Truss, or that Blairite traitor Starmer?
It is the task of the Russian working class to deal with Putin. Our fight is against imperialism, NATO and our own reactionary Tory government and those miserable so-called Labour leaders who are its partners in crime. As Lenin always insisted: the main enemy is at home. It is high time we reminded ourselves of that fact.
London, 24 February, 2022
As Russian forces entered the capital city of Kiev, Ukraine, the Ukrainian defense minister estimated that hundreds of Russian soldiers had died in the conflict so far. Ukraine has reported over 137 casualties, including civilians. A first attempt at holding talks between Kiev and Moscow failed on Friday. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has since appealed to Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to mediate in the conflict.
On Friday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced the deployment, for the first time, of NATO’s 40,000-troop-strong rapid response force, created in 2003.
“Yesterday, NATO Allies activated our defense plans,” Stoltenberg said on Friday, adding that the alliance’s forces would be positioned “on land, at sea, and in the air.”
“The United States, Canada and European Allies have deployed thousands more troops to the eastern part of the Alliance,” Stoltenberg continued. “We have over 100 jets at high alert operating in over 30 different locations. And over 120 ships from the High North to the Mediterranean. Including three strike carrier groups.”
Stoltenberg added, “We speak about thousands of troops. We speak about air and maritime capabilities. They are only actually part of the standing naval groups. We have many planes operating in the eastern part of the Alliance. And then, several Allies have partly already assigned troops and forces to the NATO Response Force.”
Stoltenberg called Russia’s actions “the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades,” declaring, “We will do whatever it takes to defend every ally and every inch of NATO territory.”
The announcement was hailed by advocates of confrontation with Russia. “Hearing now that NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) has been activated. Excellent news,” tweeted former US Ambassador to Russia and arch-warmonger Michael McFaul.
UK Defense Minister James Heappey announced that the UK would send armed forces to Estonia “earlier than planned,” with the Royal Welsh battle group arriving in the country shortly. A further 1,000 UK troops will be on standby “to support Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Poland,” Heappey said.
But the defense minister warned of the dangers of an open engagement between NATO and Russia, observing that the conflict could quickly become “existential.”
Both in the UK and the US, significant forces within the political establishment are advocating for just such an “existential” conflict.
Heappey’s warnings were directed to MPs advocating for an establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, meaning that NATO surface-to-air missiles and aircraft would engage and attempt to shoot down Russian combat planes.
The imposition of a no-fly zone “would be a significant and real help for the people of Ukraine,” said Tory MP Peter Bone.
In the United States, Congressman Adam Kinzinger demanded that the United States take this measure. “Declare a #NoFlyZone over Ukraine,” Kinzinger tweeted. “History teaches that taking a stand is inevitable and gets more costly with time. We own the skies, Russia cannot hold a candle to our Air power. Do this. Putin is too dangerous to hope he is satisfied with ‘just Ukraine.’”
The claim that the United States “own(s) the skies” in Eastern Europe is false. Russia operates what is arguably the world’s most advanced Anti-Access and Area Denial (A2/AD) system, which would inflict significant losses on NATO aircraft that sought to engage Russian air forces. If Moscow’s aircraft were to come under attack from sites within NATO territory, Russia could respond with cruise missile strikes on the batteries, triggering NATO Article 5 and starting a world war.
This insane demand won support on both sides of the aisle, with Democratic Party operative Jon Cooper demanding, “The U.S. must declare a no-fly zone in Ukraine—NOW!!”
In an exchange on BBC’s Radio 4 Today, UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said that the imposition of a no-fly zone would be an act of war against Russia.
“To do a no-fly zone I would have to put British fighter jets against Russian; NATO would have to declare war on Russia.” This would “trigger a European war,” he said.
Any such war threatens the use of nuclear weapons. As CNN military analyst James “Spider” Marks said on live television Thursday, “I would hate to think that [Vladimir Putin] might think that he can get away with a tactical nuke, and that there wouldn’t be a concomitant response. That then begins the cascading effect of the end of times.”
On Thursday, US President Joe Biden said that 7,000 US troops would deploy to Germany. But the Pentagon clarified that some of them could be forward deployed to Russia’s borders as part of a NATO rapid response force.
Military.com reported, “The U.S. has already deployed about 12,000 troops and equipment such as F-35 Lightning II fighter jets and Apache attack helicopters to Germany, Poland, Romania and the Baltic states. The Pentagon has said more than 11,000 troops have been put on heightened alert for deployment since January, but it could not provide exact figures on Friday of those who remain on alert or have been deployed.”
These developments come as further measures have been taken to shut the Russian population off from the world economy. On Friday, Poland closed its airspace to Russian airlines, while British Airways and Virgin Atlantic have stopped using Russian airspace, Kommersant reported. S&P just downgraded the credit ratings of both Ukraine and Russia.
On Friday, California Democrat Eric Swalwell said that “kicking every Russian student out of the United States … should … be on the table.”
While the United States and NATO governments hope to benefit, for both domestic and geopolitical reasons, from a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the war threatens to have massive and incalculable consequences not only for the populations of that region but for all of humanity.
As the International Committee of the Fourth International said in its statement yesterday, the opposition among the people of Ukraine, Russia, and the whole world must “be developed as a conscious political movement for socialism. This means the building of the International Committee of the Fourth International and its affiliated Socialist Equality Parties in every country.”
No to war with Ukraine! Against Russian military intervention!
The following is a statement by Russian comrades of the International Marxist Tendency, denouncing the invasion of Ukraine that began in the early hours of today. Against military intervention! Against chauvinism! No war between the peoples, no peace between the classes! Read the original in Russian here. Also, this statement should be read in conjunction with the previous one by our Russian comrades, and the latest analysis by marxist.com editor Alan Woods.
In the early morning of 24 February, the Russian army launched a military operation against Ukraine, inflicting airstrikes on military units, air defence systems and ammunition depots. In a video message to the nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin justified the operation by citing an appeal from the people's republics of the Donbas requesting military protection. He said that the objective of the operation is not the occupation of Ukraine, but its demilitarisation and denazification. He called on the servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to lay down their arms and not obey the “anti-people junta that is robbing the people.”
In our previous articles, we, the International Marxist Tendency (IMT), assessed the likelihood of a direct military clash between Russia and Ukraine as extremely small. This was due to the fact that our analysis focused on the interests of Russian imperialism, its capabilities and past behaviour. A full-scale war in Ukraine was then seen as an extremely dangerous adventure for the Putin regime with an uncertain outcome, which would be accompanied by enormous costs for Russia. The situation, however, consistently developed from bad to worse, and eventually spiralled towards this catastrophic scenario. Putin chose the adventure, apparently counting on the Ukrainian state to crumble under his first blows, after which it would only be necessary to carry out a blitzkrieg and put a new loyal government in power. As with the recognition of the people's republics, one cannot speak of a “last-minute decision based on the circumstances”, because the video message about the start of the operation, as it turned out, was recorded on 21 February.
A significant part of Russian society and the Russian left justified both the recognition of the republics and the entry of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine by saying that this would stop the shelling of the Donbas and end the eight-year-long hell of bombing for millions of people. This contained a certain amount of truth, although in our previous statement we stressed the negative consequences of the recognition of independence, condemning both recognition and intervention. But now that the missiles have flown into Ukraine, it will not be possible to talk about bringing in troops for the sake of “ending the war”.
It is hard to find anything more hypocritical than the statements issued by Putin and other Russian officials about ‘denazification’. Contrary to their rhetorical appeal to the memory of the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945, and the sacrifices of the Soviet people in the fight against Nazism, the historical model of the Putin regime is not the Soviet Union. Rather, Putin’s model is the Russian Empire, as he has directly and repeatedly explained. His long speech on 21 February regarding the introduction of troops into the LPR (Luhansk People’s Republic) and DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) was emphatically anti-communist. It was based on the stance of Russian chauvinism, and not Soviet internationalism. In Russia, Nazi collaborators are also regularly honoured, although by no means on the same scale as in Ukraine. The White movement is glorified and communists are persecuted, including functionaries of the Communist Party. The communist parties in the people’s republics of Donbas still operate illegally. The policy of the Russian authorities is one of national chauvinism, anti-communism, anti-democracy and the robbery of the workers. Under such conditions, only extremely naive people can perceive Russia as an ‘anti-fascist’ force.
Even if Putin's blitzkrieg succeeds and the existing government of Ukraine is dispersed, whatever it is replaced with by force of Russian bayonets will be just as reactionary, only with a different colouration. It cannot be otherwise. We only need to consider the forces that the Russian regime has nurtured in Donbas for the past eight years; how it has killed objectionable field commanders; and the motivations that have guided Ukrainian politicians in the same period. Given the curtailment of bourgeois democracy in Russia itself, one cannot expect that Putin will contribute to its construction in Ukraine. We will not see ‘denazification’, but ‘nazification’ under another flag.
War is the most difficult subject to analyse. Of course, we cannot predict the outcome of a military operation. But despite the huge material and technological superiority of the Russian Army over the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there is a chance that the Ukrainian army and state will not simply be defeated within a couple of days. Under those circumstances, the most nightmarish scenario for the working people of Russia and Ukraine will come to life: a protracted, bloody slaughterhouse, in which the workers are the livestock. But regardless of the outcome of the war, Ukrainian and Russian chauvinism will rise to new heights and a deep wound will have been inflicted on the relations between Ukrainian and Russian working people that will last for many decades to come. Therefore, the struggle for the reconciliation of peoples, the fierce struggle against chauvinism of all stripes, is the duty and urgent task of communist internationalists today.
The most important task of honest Russian communists is to directly oppose Russia’s military intervention. The sanctioning of this operation under the pretext of “protecting the Russian population”, “fighting against Nazism”, and so on is a direct betrayal of the principles of internationalism. The position of the leadership of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which formally offered Putin their recognition of the people’s republics of the Donbas, and then approved the introduction of troops and the military operation, has caused the greatest harm in this respect. It is noteworthy that this is happening at the very moment when members of the Communist Party itself, from Moscow to Vladivostok, are facing repression. We believe that consistent communists in the ranks of this party should strongly protest against the fact that the leadership has not only capitulated to Russian chauvinism, but is leading its procession. The time has come for all loyal communists to remember the lessons of the collapse of the Second International; to remember Lenin's struggle against the social chauvinists and the principles on which the Communist International was founded!
We call on all communists in Ukraine, Russia and Donbas to oppose the war. We urge the military personnel of the Russian Federation not to carry out criminal orders. We call for the fight against chauvinism of all stripes – for the international brotherhood of peoples.
AGAINST MILITARY INTERVENTION!
AGAINST RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM!
AGAINST CHAUVINISM OF ALL KINDS!
NO WAR BETWEEN PEOPLES! NO PEACE BETWEEN CLASSES!
Imperialist hypocrisy and the invasion of Ukraine
So, it has started. Russian forces have unleashed a massive attack on Ukraine. In the early hours of the morning, in a short televised address, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” at dawn. Within minutes of the broadcast, at about 5am Ukrainian time, explosions were heard near major Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kiev.
In previous weeks, Putin built up an estimated 190,000 troops close to Ukraine’s borders, while European leaders shuttled between Kiev and Moscow, seeking a diplomatic solution. But one does not mobilise such a huge number of troops, tanks and guns just in order to dance a diplomatic minuet.
In the immediate fog of war, with only scraps of information at our disposal, it is impossible to give an accurate appraisal of the military situation. But the scope of the Russian attack appears to be massive. To cite one report:
"Ukraine’s interior ministry reported that the country was under attack from cruise and ballistic missiles, with Russia appearing to target infrastructure near major cities such as Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Dnipro.
"Explosions from artillery rockets lit up the night sky as shelling began near Mariupol, as videos showed. A senior adviser to Ukraine’s interior ministry said that it appeared Russian troops may soon move on Kharkiv, which is about 20 miles from the border. Locals in Kiev sought safety in bomb shelters as explosions were heard outside the city."
And another:
"Some of the first explosions after Putin announced the operation were heard near Kramatorsk, the headquarters of the Ukrainian army’s operations centre near the Russian-controlled territories in south-east Ukraine. Explosions were also reported at military headquarters, and at military warehouses."
There have also been reports of an amphibious assault on the key port city of Mariupol and ground forces moving in from Belarus, Crimea and from Russia. The Russian military claimed it was not targeting population centres. “High-precision weapons are disabling the military infrastructure, air defence facilities, military airfields and aviation of the Ukrainian army,” the Russian Defence Ministry said in a statement carried by state-owned news agency Ria Novosti.
Putin’s speech
The stage for the offensive was set on Wednesday night, after the leaders of the two Russian-controlled territories in east Ukraine sent an official request to Moscow for military aid to “help repel the aggression of the Ukrainian armed forces in order to avoid civilian casualties and a humanitarian catastrophe in the Donbas”.
An examination of Putin’s speech from this morning tells us something about his aims and intentions. Every war must have some justification and, in this case, Putin mentioned: “A hostile anti-Russia is being created on our historic lands.”
This claim is constantly rubbished by the West as mere propaganda. “How can poor little Ukraine pose a threat to Russia?” they snort. That is of course, a question that is supposed to answer itself. On its own, clearly Ukraine does not represent much of a threat. But as part of an imperialist military bloc led by the United States, planted on Russia’s doorstep, it most certainly would.
At the heart of the present dispute is, therefore, Ukraine’s future membership of NATO. Guaranteeing against this was a central Russian demand, which has been repeatedly refused by Washington – a refusal that was all the more absurd because the West acknowledges that Ukraine does not meet the minimum requirements for NATO membership at this point in time. It is not quite clear whether acceptance of this demand would, in itself, have prevented an invasion. But continually rejecting it out of hand made it inevitable.
The second requirement in any war is to gain the element of surprise and to put the blame on the other side. In this case, it was the shelling of the Donbas region. But that has gone on uninterruptedly for some years.
However, the immediate excuse is really a secondary consideration, since once the war becomes necessary, any excuse can be found. And as far as the element of surprise is concerned, that has been achieved very effectively, with the active assistance of messrs Biden and Johnson. They have behaved like the little boy who cried “Wolf!” so often that, when the wolf finally appeared at the door, nobody believed him.
Putin’s speech was really a declaration of war, but he studiously avoided mentioning it. This man, who is the nearest thing I know to an Egyptian Sphinx, likes to keep everyone guessing. “We have taken the decision to conduct a special military operation,” he said, without even hinting on just how special it would be.
And what would be the aim of this “special military operation”? He claimed it was for the “demilitarisation and denazification” of Ukraine. “We do not intend to occupy Ukraine,” he said, but at the same time, he had a warning for other nations who might be tempted to get involved:
“To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me,” he said.
A fairly clear message, I think.
Can Ukraine resist?
The immediate reaction of the Kiev government was words of defiance:
“Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” said Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba. “Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes. This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky used a video address to appeal to the Russian public for help after an attempt to speak to Putin was unsuccessful. “Do Russians want wars? I would very much like to answer this question. But the answer is up to you,” he said.
He also vowed to defend the country, saying: “If someone attempts to take away our land, our freedom, our lives, the lives of our children, we will defend ourselves. By attacking, you will see our faces, not our backs, but our faces.”
He announced that martial law was now being imposed across all of Ukraine.
“No panic. We're strong. We're ready for anything. We'll defeat everyone, because we are Ukraine,” the Ukrainian leader said. Ahead of Russia's attack, he had made a last-ditch attempt to avert war, warning that Russia could start “a major war in Europe” and urging Russian citizens to oppose it.
Brave words! But this is just so much empty bravado. The Ukrainian army is in disarray, being taken hopelessly off guard by the suddenness of the attack. In any case, it was in no position to resist the might of the Russian army. The moment the West announced that it did not intend to send troops to defend Ukraine, the matter was settled in advance.
The assertion that there is no panic in the capital is belied by television pictures that show long lines of cars fleeing Kiev.
From the very start, the Kiev government has been a picture of helplessness. By stubbornly insisting on its right to join NATO – a clear provocation to Moscow – it threw itself unto the arms of the West as its only hope for survival. That was a very foolish mistake.
For all their public displays of bravado, the imperialists have not the slightest interest in the people of Ukraine. They are regarded as mere pawns in a cynical game of Great Power politics.
The Russian military claimed that all of Ukraine’s aviation bases were disabled in the barrage of missiles that began the Russian invasion. Smoke has been seen rising from near major airfields outside of Kharkiv and other cities in the east, and as far west as Ivano-Frankivsk, which is nearer to the border with Poland.
Thursday’s attack was preceded by a massive, continuous cyber-attack that targeted Ukraine’s ministries and banks, a form of hybrid warfare to sow confusion.
There have also been reports indicating that Russian forces have entered Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine’s border forces “are not putting up any resistance to Russian units”.
In a recent Facebook post, Dmitri Kovalevich a commentator based in Kiev paints a picture of Ukrainian forces in disarray:
“Unconfirmed messages on the Ukrainian web suggest that some 70 percent of recent western arms supplies for Ukraine were destroyed directly on arms depots. Our military is lamenting the fact that the depots were run by officers who turned out to be Russian agents, and simply blew them up.
“Update: all Turkish Bayractar drones were also destroyed right on the air fields.
"Donetsk rebels seized the city of Marioupol. Almost no resistance there from Ukraine’s army – they just walked into the city.
"Missiles that hit Ukraine’s military bases in Odessa were launched by underwater submarines.
“Reportedly, Ukraine’s border control checkpoints were captured in the Sumy region [north-east Ukraine]. Russian marines landed in Odessa region. Kiev anti-aircraft base was hit by ballistic missiles – within an hour Ukraine lost almost all its anti-aircraft systems.
“Mass fire from rocket-launchers along the entire frontline in Donbass. A Russian military column crossed the border in the Kharkov region.
“People from various regions of Ukraine report loud explosions, which happened simultaneously in Odessa, Kiev, Kramatorsk, Marioupol, Kharkov and Dnipro-city. This looks like large, timed explosives, detonated at once throughout the country.
“US intelligence drones left the airspace over Ukraine.
“Update: explosions hitting Ukraine's arms depots.
“Airspace over Ukraine is completely closed. Some jets flying to Kiev were ordered to turn back.”
It is clear that these reports, based on confused and partial information during the heat of the fighting, must be treated with some caution. But if only half of this is true, it shows that the Russians made sure that the military capabilities of Ukraine’s defences were destroyed, or at least severely impaired, before the invasion started.
It also paints a picture of demoralisation and lack of motivation in at least part of the Ukrainian forces, which contradicts the picture that has been peddled by western propaganda. Russia now has every incentive to move as fast as possible to seize the capital.
Military analysts have said they expect that Putin would send his forces in order to capture or surround Kiev. US Senator Marco Rubio, a member of the Senate’s select committee on intelligence, claims that “Russia’s airborne forces are attempting to take control of the airport in Kiev to… fly in forces to occupy the city.”
There were reports on Thursday evening on Russian state media that airborne troops had captured the airport in Boryspil near Kiev. Whether these reports are true or false, it is only a matter of time before the Ukrainian capital is in Russian hands. The war will then, to all intents and purposes, be over.
“Shock and horror”
Western leaders have fallen over themselves in their haste to condemn the invasion, which, if we are to believe them, will lead to something approaching Armageddon, with millions (sic!) of people killed and a bloody all-European war threatening the very existence of human civilization as we know it.
Joe Biden issued a written statement saying:
“The prayers of the entire world are with the people of Ukraine tonight as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces.”
“President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering,” Biden said. “Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable.”
“I am appalled by the horrific events in Ukraine and I have spoken to President Zelenskyy to discuss next steps. President Putin has chosen a path of bloodshed and destruction by launching this unprovoked attack on Ukraine.”
“We will hold the Kremlin accountable,” wrote Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU Commission, which had announced new sanctions against Moscow just hours before the attack.
All of these fine, defiant words are contrasted with the fact that Biden and co. never had the slightest intention of providing military support to Kiev. Their only contribution to the present crisis was a never-ending series of bellicose statements, accompanied by dire threats of “severe” (but unspecified) consequences that would allegedly follow a Russian attack. These remarks, backed up by an obstinate intransigence to even consider Russia’s demands, helped to make an invasion inevitable.
In short, all these ladies and gentlemen were quite prepared to fight to the last drop of the blood – specifically, that of the Ukrainians.
Even more despicable was the rabid ranting that was coming out of London. If incendiary speeches could win wars, the stupid rhetoric delivered on the floor of the House of Commons would have had the Russian army scurrying back to barracks as fast as their boots could carry them.
“The UK and our allies will respond decisively,” growled Prime Minister Boris Johnson, more to impress his own Tory backbenchers, who have attacked him for his timid response to the man in the Kremlin.
Unfortunately, the historical record tells us that wars have never been won by words. Putin must have had a good laugh at this circus that passes for a parliament. That is, if he paid any attention to it at all, which we doubt very much.
And what are we to say about Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer? The most earnest desire of this right-wing Blairite is to make the Labour Party look as similar to the Tories as possible. His dream is to see it waving the Union Jack and the Stars and Stripes instead of the Red Flag.
So, it was no surprise to see him enthusiastically competing with Boris Johnson to prove who was the most ferocious enemy of Russia and the most ardent supporter of NATO.
The pot should not call the kettle black
All these words stink of hypocrisy. Where was the chorus of condemnation when the Americans and their “allies” (read: lackeys) launched a criminal and bloody war against Iraq? And what about their lying propaganda about non-existent “weapons of mass destruction”, that were supposed to be ‘proved’ by fake documents, and served as a cynical cover for an act of blatant aggression against a sovereign state?
That disgusting act – as well as the equally criminal invasion of Afghanistan and the imperialist rape of Syria – led to the deaths of at least one million people. But why let the facts ruin a good story?
Parading on TV for the world to see, in their tailor-made suits and polished smiles, the western leaders are made to appear as the voice of reason and humanism. But scratch that surface, and you will find nothing but filth. There is no force on earth as reactionary and as drenched in blood as US imperialism and its puppets in the west.
The “United” Nations
As always, when war breaks out, our ears are suddenly assailed by a strange noise. It strongly resembles the bleating of frightened sheep, but in fact it is the Voice of Sanity, the True Voice of Humanity, or so we are led to believe.
I refer to the bleating of the pacifists: those pleasant, well-meaning souls who inform us that peace is good and war is bad. But wars have never been halted by sentimental appeals to decency and common sense. On the contrary, common sense tells us that throughout the ages, all serious matters have always been resolved by force of arms.
One of the most remarkable features of pacifists is their seemingly endless capacity for self-deception. They eagerly cling to each and any speech by a leader fervently declaring his or her attachment to peace. Or this or that empty resolution passed by a government or institution repeating the same banal sentiments. A naïve belief in the efficacy of such things make the pacifists useful dupes of the warmongers, since they lull people into a false sense of security.
Such speeches and resolutions merely serve as a convenient smokescreen to conceal the real, aggressive intentions that lie behind them. And the biggest fraud of all is the comically misnamed United Nations. This body was set up following the Second World War, supposedly to prevent new wars in the future.
And every time there is a danger of war, the pacifists and left reformists call on the UN to intervene. That is a stupid illusion and a deception of the people.
This is not the place to repeat the sorry history of that institution. Suffice it to say that the UN has never prevented any war, and has in fact been involved in more than one, as the case of Korea shows.
Between 1945 and 1989 there have been more than 300 wars internationally. Since WW2 and until today, the United States alone has waged 30 major military operations. The United Nations had no impact whatsoever on any of these events.
And today is no different. At the very time when Putin’s words were being broadcast, the UN security council was holding an emergency session, chaired by Russia itself, which holds the rotating presidency.
It was begun by the UN secretary general, António Guterres, who made a direct appeal: “President Putin – stop your troops from attacking Ukraine. Give peace a chance. Too many people have already died.”
But no sooner had these words left his lips, the first detonations were being reported. The final epitaph on the grave of pacifism and the United Nations can be left to the Bible: “crying peace, peace, when there is no peace.” (Jeremiah, 6: 14)
Lenin once said that capitalism is horror without end. It is a system with war and reactionary national chauvinism baked into its foundations, as a part of the international competition for markets and spheres of influence. How many millions of workers and poor have been marched onto the battlefields and sacrificed in the name of the ‘nation’, which is merely another word for the interests of the capitalist class?
As long as capitalism remains, war will remain a permanent feature, and there can be no talk of ‘united nations’, just like there can be no talk of a united nation. The only unity that is possible is international class unity.
It is the task of Marxists and socialists to expose the illusion that the interests of the workers and poor can be reconciled with those of the ruling class. The only way to fight war is to fight against the system which causes war.
What now?
While it is too early to say that the war is over, nobody can doubt that the Russians will achieve all their declared objectives in a very short time. It is not easy to determine the precise mood of the Ukrainian people. In any case, it will be different in the eastern region, where there are many Russian speakers; and the western part, which has always been more inclined to nationalism.
But the prevailing mood will be one of despair, pessimism and, above all, war-weariness and a strong desire for peace and some kind of stability. This may provide Putin the basis for setting up a pro-Russian government in Kiev.
It seems to me that a man like Poroshenko might fit the bill nicely as a replacement for Zelensky. True, he has made some very sharp speeches lately, condemning Putin. But that was to be expected, and behind the scenes, negotiations will be taking place, the outcome of which may yet surprise everyone. But that is just my guess…
Obviously, the question of Ukrainian membership of NATO will be off the agenda. Under the declared banner of denazification, there will be a purge of right-wing and ultra-nationalist organisations.
It is self-evident that the Russian occupying forces will want to rid themselves of actual or potential enemies, and this will certainly include the fascist and ultra-nationalist armed militias.
When Putin says he does not intend to occupy Ukraine, there is no reason to doubt his word. To be more accurate, he will not occupy it for long. That would be too difficult and very expensive.
No. He will withdraw, having made his point. And that is to show both to the Ukrainians and the rest of the world that Russia is not to be trifled with, that NATO’s expansion to the east must stop, that Ukraine and Georgia must never join it and that NATO must not place large concentrations of forces near Russia’s borders or hold provocative manoeuvres in the vicinity.
He keeps repeating that he is open to negotiate, and that is also the case. But he will now be negotiating from a position that is far stronger than before. He will press his demand for the removal of medium-range nuclear weapons from Eastern Europe and the effective reinstatement of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, which, you will recall, was unilaterally ditched by Mr. Trump.
Before withdrawing, just to make things absolutely clear, he may well pocket a few more pieces of Ukrainian territory, namely by expanding the newly recognised People’s Republics to include the whole of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
That, by the way, would be a purely defensive move, designed to create a buffer zone on Russia’s southern border. That would underline the impotence of Ukraine and remove it altogether from the list of possible future threats to Russia’s security – which was exactly what Putin did in the case of Georgia.
Incidentally, on re-reading what I wrote at that time, I think it fits the present situation very well, so I will quote it here:
“Yes, we recognise the right of the people of Georgia to self-determination, but not unconditionally. We do not defend their right to oppress other small nations, such as the Ossetians and the Abkhazians. Do we defend the right of the Abkhazian and Ossetians to self-determination? Yes, we do. But what kind of self-determination is it that depends entirely on subsidies from Moscow and allows itself to be used as the small change in the diplomatic intrigues of the latter to subvert and oppress the Georgians? In what way does this further the cause of socialism and the working class? In no way! This kind of ‘self-determination’ is a fraud and a lie. It is merely a convenient smokescreen to disguise the ambitions and greed of a larger power, namely Russia, which wants to take back its old possessions in the Caucasus. The absorption of these peoples into Russia will give them about the same ‘self-determination’ as that enjoyed by the Chechens – that is, none at all, just as there is no real self-determination in North Ossetia, Dagestan, or any other region in Russia.
“On the basis of capitalism no lasting solution can be found for the national question, whether in the Caucasus, the Balkans or the Middle East. Any attempt to ‘solve’ the national question on the basis of capitalism can only lead to new wars, terrorism, ‘ethnic cleansing’ and new waves of refugees, in a vicious spiral of violence and oppression. The question of the right to return for all refugees can never be solved on a capitalist basis. It would inevitably mean increased competition for scarce resources, jobs, houses, medical assistance, education, and other services. If there are not enough jobs and houses for all, it would inevitably fuel the fires of national or religious tensions. Partial reforms will not solve the problem. A root-and-branch solution is necessary. One cannot cure cancer with an aspirin!”
If we replace the word Georgia with Ukraine, and the Russian-speaking people of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions for the Ossetians and the Abkhazians, it fits like a glove. There is really nothing more to add to it.
The US will likely announce new sanctions against Russia on Monday, using tools to punish Russian banks and its larger financial system that Washington had so far held in reserve.
The sanctions imposed by the West will do nothing to alter Russia’s position, since Putin has taken steps to drastically reduce Russia’s dependence on the West. True, as an immediate reaction to the invasion, the Russian ruble fell to a record-low level since 2016, and trading was halted on the Russian stock market. But those effects will only be temporary. On the other hand, if sanctions lead to the cutting off of Russian gas supplies to Europe, it would have catastrophic effects and we would then expect a further rise in food and fuel prices.
What attitude should we take?
The present situation has inevitably been met by an intensified barrage of propaganda in the prostitute media. The aim of this is not at all to promote the interests and well-being of the people of Ukraine. On the contrary, their interests have been cynically sacrificed on the altar of imperialism.
It is imperative that we maintain a firm class position and do not allow ourselves to be dragged along by the lying imperialist propaganda machine.
Do we support Vladimir Putin and the Russian oligarchy whose interests he backs? No, Putin is no friend of the working class, either in Russia, Ukraine or anywhere else. The invasion of Ukraine is merely a continuation of his own cynical and reactionary agenda.
But that is not the question we should ask ourselves at this time. The question is: can we in any shape or form appear to be in the same camp as US and British imperialism? Can we associate ourselves, directly or indirectly with NATO, that reactionary imperialist gang? Or with Boris Johnson and the war-monger Liz Truss, or that Blairite traitor Starmer?
It is the task of the Russian working class to deal with Putin. Our fight is against imperialism, NATO and our own reactionary Tory government and those miserable so-called Labour leaders who are its partners in crime. As Lenin always insisted: the main enemy is at home. It is high time we reminded ourselves of that fact.
London, 24 February, 2022
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