Scientists create model that predicts Earthquake whereabouts

QNA/WASHINGTONLAST EDITED FEBRUARY 12, 2023 

A team of seismologists and statisticians at Northwestern University has created a new model that can predict when and where the next earthquake might strike. The model takes into account the exact order and timing of previous quakes, rather than relying solely on the average time between past quakes.

The team's research focused on investigating plate boundary processes and deformation within the lithosphere using a range of techniques, including seismology and space geodesy (measuring the geometry, gravity, and spatial orientation of the Earth and other astronomical objects, such as planets), and marine geophysics.

Participating researcher James S. Neely said "Sometimes we see several large earthquakes occur over relatively short time frames and then long periods when nothing happens. The traditional models cant handle this behavior."

Neely added that earthquakes occur when the jigsaw puzzle-like pieces of rock that make up the Earth's surface (known as tectonic plates) suddenly move, and most earthquakes occur along fault lines where tectonic plates join and diverge.

The researchers see the new model as a useful tool for seismologists, as they can improve earthquake prediction and better prepare for future seismic events.

The US Geological Survey previously stated that scientists can only calculate the probability of an earthquake occurring within a certain number of years.