Op-Ed: Prigozhin dead, or is he?
By Paul Wallis
By Paul Wallis
DIGITAL JOURNAL
August 24, 2023
Prigozhin, dubbed 'Putin's chef' because of his Kremlin catering contracts, has previously denied links with Wagner - Copyright SPUTNIK/AFP/File Alexey DRUZHININ
The number of questions that instantly came to life after Prigozhin’s reported death in a plane crash are creating plenty of ripples. Prigozhin was supposedly on the passenger list of a plane he owned. The plane crashed between Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Plane crashes are also pretty normal in Russia, so that’s at least one typical scenario. This slapdash coverage wouldn’t fly elsewhere in the world, pun obligatory, but it’d be baseline average in Russia.
Not everyone’s buying this news. Some say the plane crash was typical FSB work. People in the region “heard two bangs” and saw vapor trails coming from the plane. That’s not exactly solid information.
While Russian sources are adamant that Prigozhin died in the plane crash, the news isn’t making headlines in Russia. It was one of the last items reported in a Russian newscast, according to The Guardian.
Never mind conspiracy theories. The hourly information coming from Liveua/map on Twitter is all over the place. Someone even accused Russia of shooting down the plane.
While there would be nothing even slightly surprising about a Russian assassination of Prigozhin, there are still some questions.
August 24, 2023
Prigozhin, dubbed 'Putin's chef' because of his Kremlin catering contracts, has previously denied links with Wagner - Copyright SPUTNIK/AFP/File Alexey DRUZHININ
The number of questions that instantly came to life after Prigozhin’s reported death in a plane crash are creating plenty of ripples. Prigozhin was supposedly on the passenger list of a plane he owned. The plane crashed between Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Plane crashes are also pretty normal in Russia, so that’s at least one typical scenario. This slapdash coverage wouldn’t fly elsewhere in the world, pun obligatory, but it’d be baseline average in Russia.
Not everyone’s buying this news. Some say the plane crash was typical FSB work. People in the region “heard two bangs” and saw vapor trails coming from the plane. That’s not exactly solid information.
While Russian sources are adamant that Prigozhin died in the plane crash, the news isn’t making headlines in Russia. It was one of the last items reported in a Russian newscast, according to The Guardian.
Never mind conspiracy theories. The hourly information coming from Liveua/map on Twitter is all over the place. Someone even accused Russia of shooting down the plane.
While there would be nothing even slightly surprising about a Russian assassination of Prigozhin, there are still some questions.
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is seen in Bakhmut in May 2023 footage of Concord, a company linked to the Russian mercenary group – Copyright TELEGRAM/ @concordgroup_official/AFP/File Handout
Why did no report say the body had been positively identified?
Why the song and dance routine with Lukashenko and the Belarus option?
What happens to Wagner Group now?
Who, if anybody, takes over from Prigozhin?
Prigozhin is quite smart enough to do anything required to get himself out of Russia. Being on a passenger list is hardly an in-depth forensic examination of his whereabouts. He would also have had his own people doing maintenance on the plane.
Russia is famously blasé about reports of people being killed by their government agencies. They never admit it, but they never deny it either. This incident is more likely to get buried than investigated in depth.
Why did no report say the body had been positively identified?
Why the song and dance routine with Lukashenko and the Belarus option?
What happens to Wagner Group now?
Who, if anybody, takes over from Prigozhin?
Prigozhin is quite smart enough to do anything required to get himself out of Russia. Being on a passenger list is hardly an in-depth forensic examination of his whereabouts. He would also have had his own people doing maintenance on the plane.
Russia is famously blasé about reports of people being killed by their government agencies. They never admit it, but they never deny it either. This incident is more likely to get buried than investigated in depth.
The Wagner group has spearheaded the months-long Russian assault on Bakhmut – Copyright Venezuelan Presidency/AFP HandoutIf the idea was to decapitate Wagner Group, it’s probably succeeded. It has also demolished one of the few effective combat forces Russia had left. Private armies are easy to manage in that sense if no other. If Prigozhin has gone, so are his networks. It would also send an unmistakable message to other mercenary groups.
If Prigozhin staged his death, the message is equally clear. He had to get out of a dangerous environment, and the plane crash would be a nice diversion. On balance, I’d say he probably is dead, but nothing in Russian history is ever that simple.
Prigozhin death leaves many unknowns and one assumption
By AFP
August 24, 2023
The head of the mercenary group was on board a plane that crashed on Wednesday, with all passengers killed - Copyright AFP JIM WATSON
Didier LAURAS
The exact circumstances of the death of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin remained unclear Thursday, although most experts believe it marks President Vladimir Putin’s vengeance for his short-lived rebellion in June.
The head of the mercenary group, which in June attempted to topple Russia’s military leadership, was on board a plane that crashed on Wednesday, with all passengers killed, Russian officials said.
Russian social media accounts linked to the opposition or Wagner itself were echoing the analysis of Western think tanks, seeing Prigozhin living on borrowed time since his aborted march on Moscow two months ago.
“No matter the cause of the plane crash, everyone will see this as an act of retaliation and retribution, and the Kremlin won’t particularly counteract this view,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik consultancy.
Russian authorities have not put forward any cause for the crash, leaving the field open for a mass of questions and assumptions.
– Why did the plane crash? –
Personnel from Russia’s powerful Investigative Committee, which probes serious crimes, were on the scene less than 24 hours after the crash.
Although neither the Kremlin nor the defence ministry have made a statement, an investigation has been opened for breach of air safety rules.
Wagner’s official accounts have been dark since June 26, when Prigozhin published a last audio message.
But accounts close to the group made so-far unproven claims that the plane was brought down by an S-300 surface-to-air missile system.
The theory began spreading immediately after the crash became known, with the Grey_Zone Telegram account describing “characteristic air defence white trails in the sky” on an amateur video supposedly of the crash — which AFP was unable to verify.
Other unverified images show a plane, allegedly the Embraer 135 carrying Prigozhin, spiralling down to the ground.
Even Margarita Simonian, the head of RT — formerly Russia Today — publicly appeared to endorse the assassination theory as she dismissed the idea that Prigozhin had staged his own death.
“Personally I lean towards the most obvious” theory, she wrote.
– Other victims –
An official manifest shows ten passengers on board the plane that crashed in the Tver region northwest of Moscow.
“Everyone on board was killed,” Russia’s emergency ministry said.
Short biographies were published by Dossier, a site belonging to exiled businessman and opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
Among them was Dmitry Utkin, Prigozhin’s heavyset, shaven-headed right-hand man who was known to have neo-Nazi sympathies.
Utkin “was in charge of command and combat training,” Dossier wrote, and “signed orders with ‘Sieg'” — the German word for “victory” used in the Nazi “Sieg Heil” greeting.
He referred to Prigozhin himself as “Heil Petrovich”, Dossier added.
Valery Chekalov, another passenger, was one of the directors of Prigozhin’s Concord company and had worked for him since the 2000s.
He supervised all the Wagner boss’s civilian projects abroad, “whether geological prospecting, oil production or agriculture” as well as the mercenary firm’s logistics, Dossier said.
– The overriding assumption –
Putin’s rage at Wagner’s mutiny, his history of eliminating opponents and the tightening of his regime’s control since its invasion of Ukraine have all been highlighted by observers pinning Prigozhin’s death on the Kremlin.
“If Russia was a normal state, then his mutiny would have led to a trial… Whatever we may think of Prigozhin, it is unconscionable to kill someone without a trial, especially when he was not in hiding,” Khodorkovsky posted on X (formerly known as Twitter).
“But in the world where Putin operates —- that of gangsters —- that’s the only way things can be done. After all, who knows what he might have said in court?” Khodorkovsky added.
“Putin has a habit of belated revenge,” said Samuel Ramani of British think-tank RUSI, recalling that Alexander Litvinenko and Anna Politkovskaya were killed in 2006 after criticising the Chechen war in the early 2000s.
“Prigozhin’s death unfolded much more quickly than usual,” he added.
Further questions were asked by figures including former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul.
“Why did Putin choose to kill Prigozhin in such a dramatic way? Why did he allow Prigozhin to meet with African leaders during his St. Petersbourg summit?” last July, he wrote on X.
What’s more, why are Wagner loyalists “allowed to pop off about revenge on social media now?” he wondered.
‘Like losing your father’: Wagner chief’s supporters mourn
By AFP
August 24, 2023
Prigozhin's authority and popularity skyrocketed after Moscow launched its Ukraine offensive - Copyright AFP Wakil KOHSAR
Russian supporters of Yevgeny Prigozhin gathered outside the Wagner headquarters in Saint Petersburg on Thursday to pay their respects to the mercenary group’s boss, presumed dead after a mysterious plane crash.
Prigozhin was branded a “traitor” by President Vladimir Putin after his short-lived rebellion against the conventional Russian army on June 23-24.
But he remained popular among Russians, who acclaimed the battlefield achievements of the Wagner paramilitary group — despite many accusations of abuses and war crimes.
“You could say it’s like losing your father. He was everything to us, because everyone was always waiting (for) what Uncle Zhenia (Prigozhin) was going to say,” said Igor.
Like Igor, who was wearing a hat with the Wagner logo and the national flag on it, many Russians eagerly awaited Prigozhin’s outspoken videos and audio messages on social media.
The clips, full of expletives, were a sharp contrast to the tightly controlled narrative of Russian officials.
His verve and unbridled criticism of Russia’s regular army had turned him into a cult figure for parts of Russian society — and antagonised Moscow’s top brass.
Tensions degenerated into a violent but short-lived mutiny attempt at the end of June.
The mutiny ended with a deal, mediated by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, under which Prigozhin was expected to move to neighbouring Belarus with some of his fighters.
There was no mention of Prigozhin’s rebellion — or the ensuing public repudiation by Putin — from the mourners laying red carnations in front of Wagner’s glass-fronted multistorey headquarters, which opened last autumn with great fanfare.
– ‘An orphan’ –
They also avoided speculating on the reasons behind the crash of the plane, on which Wagner’s operational chief Dmitry Utkin was also flying.
A probe has been launched into the cause of the crash but investigators gave no update on Thursday.
Mourners however expressed a familial affection for the warlord, who spent years in prison in Soviet times before making a fortune through his catering business and later building Russia’s most powerful private army.
Pavel Zakharov compared Prigozhin to Charles de Gaulle, France’s former president and head of the resistance against the Nazis.
“You know, when in France President Charles de Gaulle died, it was said that France had become an orphan.
“I can only say that for me tonight, it’s probably Russia that has become an orphan,” the 36-year-old said.
Among the crowd was Natalya, a 31-year-old woman who arrived on a bike, a bouquet in hand.
She said it felt as if she had lost a family member.
“For us he had become like a friend, a brother. I think this is very significant moment for the soldiers today,” she said.
But some feared that Prigozhin’s death would raise tensions in Russia.
“I hope it will not become for our society some kind of red rag to a bull,” said Natalya
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