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Saturday, June 24, 2023

Rebel Russian mercenaries barrel towards Moscow

Putin vows to crush 'armed mutiny' from Wagner



Reuters
Fri, June 23, 2023 

ROSTOV-ON-DON/VORONEZH, Russia (Reuters) -Mutinous Russian mercenary fighters barrelled towards Moscow on Saturday after seizing a southern city overnight, with Russia's military firing on them from the air but seemingly incapable of slowing their lightning advance.

Facing the first serious challenge to his grip on power of his 23-year rule, President Vladimir Putin vowed to crush an armed mutiny he compared to Russia's Civil War a century ago.

The fighters of the Wagner private army run by former Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin were already most of the way to the capital, having captured the city of Rostov and set off on an 1,100 km (680 mile) race to Moscow.

Reuters saw troop carriers and a flatbed truck carrying a tank careening past the city of Voronezh more than half way to Moscow, where a helicopter fired on them. But there were no reports of the rebels meeting any substantial resistance on the highway.

Russian media showed pictures of small groups of police manning machine gun positions on Moscow's southern outskirts Authorities in the Lipetsk region south of the capital told residents to stay home.

More than 100 firefighters were in action at a fuel depot ablaze in Voronezh. Video footage obtained by Reuters showed it blowing up in a fireball shortly after a helicopter flew by. Prigozhin accused Russia's military of hitting civilian targets from the air as it tried to slow the column's advance.

Prigozhin says his men are on a "march for justice" to remove corrupt and incompetent commanders he blames for botching the war in Ukraine.

In a televised address from the Kremlin, Putin said Russia's very existence was under threat.

"We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to remain Russia, a state with a thousand-year history," he said.

"All those who deliberately stepped on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed insurrection, who took the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both to the law and to our people."

A defiant Prigozhin swiftly replied that he and his men had no intention of turning themselves in.

"The president makes a deep mistake when he talks about treason. We are patriots of our motherland, we fought and are fighting for it," Prigozhin said in an audio message. "We don't want the country to continue to live in corruption, deceit and bureaucracy."

Prigozhin, whose private army fought the bloodiest battles in Ukraine even as he feuded for months with the top brass, said he had captured the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District in Rostov without firing a shot.

In Rostov, which serves as the main rear logistical hub for Russia's entire invasion force, residents milled about calmly, filming on mobile phones as Wagner fighters in armoured vehicles and battle tanks took up positions.

One tank was wedged between stucco buildings with posters advertising the circus. Another had "Siberia" daubed in red paint across the front, a clear statement of intent to sweep across the breadth of Russia.

In Moscow, there was an increased security presence on the streets. Red Square was blocked off by metal barriers.

In a series of hectic messages overnight, Prigozhin demanded thata Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov should come to see him in Rostov.

Western capitals said they were closely following the situation in nuclear-armed Russia. The White House said President Joe Biden was briefed.

"This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times," Britain's defence ministry said.

"Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia's security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how this crisis plays out."

Putin's grip on power may depend on whether he can muster enough loyal troops to combat the mercenaries at a time when most of Russia's military is deployed at the front in southern and eastern Ukraine.

The insurrection also risks leaving Russia's invasion force in Ukraine in disarray, just as Kyiv is launching its strongest counteroffensive since the war began in February last year.

"Russia's weakness is obvious. Full-scale weakness," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote in a social media message. "And the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain and problems it will have for itself later."



PRIGOZHIN'S REVOLT

Prigozhin, a former convict and long-time ally of Putin, leads a private army that includes thousands of former prisoners recruited from Russian jails.

His men took on the fiercest fighting of the 16-month Ukraine war, including the protracted battle for the eastern city of Bakhmut.

He railed for months against the regular army's top brass, accusing generals of incompetence and of withholding ammunition from his fighters. This month, he defied orders to sign a contract placing his troops under Defence Ministry command.

He launched the apparent mutiny on Friday after alleging that the military had killed many of his fighters in an air strike. The Defence Ministry denied it.

"There are 25,000 of us and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in the country," he said, promising to destroy any checkpoints or air forces that got in Wagner's way. He later said his men had been involved in clashes with regular soldiers and had shot down a helicopter.

Army Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alekseyev issued a video appeal asking Prigozhin to reconsider.

"Only the president has the right to appoint the top leadership of the armed forces, and you are trying to encroach on his authority," he said.

(Reporting by Reuters journalistsWriting by Andrew Osborn, Kevin Liffey, Peter GraffEditing by Frances Kerry and Giles Elgood)



Wagner mercenary chief calls for armed rebellion against Russian military leadership


PATRICK REEVELL
Fri, June 23, 2023 

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group appears to be threatening an armed rebellion against Russia's military leadership, after accusing it of deliberately shelling his forces on Friday.

Wagner's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in an audio message on Friday claimed his forces would now punish Russia's defense minister and chief of general staff, telling other units to stand down and not offer resistance.

"There are 25,000 of us and we are coming to sort things out. ... Those who want to join us, it's time to finish with this mess," Prigozhin said.


Founder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin speaks with servicemen during withdrawal of his forces from Bakhmut and handing over their positions to regular Russian troops, June 1, 2023. 

Prigozhin also accused defense minister Sergey Shoigu of "cowardly fleeing" from Rostov in southern Russia and ordering an attack on Wagner forces.

MORE: Russian defects from Wagner mercenary group, says it's committing war crimes in Ukraine

Prigozhin published a shaky video on Friday that showed a shattered group of trees and a burning trench, claiming it was a Wagner camp shelled by Russian troops and alleging many Wagner troops were killed.

Russia's defense ministry has already denounced the video, calling it an "information provocation."

A Kremlin spokesperson said Russian President Vladimir Putin is aware of the video.

"President Putin has been informed of all the events around Prigozhin. Necessary measures are being taken," the spokesperson said.

Russia's FSB has issued a statement accusing Prigohzin of calling for "the start of an armed civil conflict" in Russia.

The FSB called on Wagner fighters not to follow Prigozhin's orders and to assist in his arrest.

Prigozhin has denied this is a "military coup" calling it a "march for justice."


"They neglect the lives of soldiers, they forgot the word 'justice,' and we will return it," Prigozhin said in the video. "Therefore, those who destroyed our guys today, and tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers, will be punished."

White House National Security Council spokesperson Adam Hodge, released a statement that said the counsel is "monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments." Hodge also confirmed later in the evening on Friday that President Joe Biden had been briefed.

Gen. Sergey Surovikin, a senior Russian general who has been linked with Prigozhin, gave a video address calling on Wagner fighters to stop their rebellion and turn back.

Surovikin was appointed the top commander of Russia's 'special military operation' in Ukraine between last September and January. He was removed in January and replaced by Russia's chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov, whom Prigozhin is trying to topple.

This comes hours after Prigozhin launched an extraordinary verbal attack on Russia's military leadership, and saying the invasion of Ukraine was based on lies.
Wagner chief says Russian invasion based on lies

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said the Kremlin's justifications for its invasion of Ukraine are based on lies, in another extraordinary attack on the country's military and political leadership.

Prigozhin, a key ally of Putin, in a video posted Friday, contradicted the public explanations for the war, including the central claim made by Putin that the 2022 invasion was necessary to prevent an attack from Ukraine.

Since launching the war, Putin has painted it as a defensive operation to protect Russia. He's claimed it was needed to stop imminent large-scale attacks from Ukraine on largely Russian-speaking eastern regions in Donbas that Russia has occupied since 2014.

MORE: Russian defects from Wagner mercenary group, says it's committing war crimes in Ukraine

Founder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves a cemetery before the funeral of a Russian military blogger who was killed in a bomb attack in a St Petersburg cafe, in Moscow, April 8, 2023. (Yulia Morozova/Reuters, File)

But in his video address, Prigozhin, whose fighters have played a leading role in the war, said that was not true and there had been no imminent risk of attack from Ukraine.

"The ministry of defense now is trying to deceive society, the president, and tell a story there was insane aggression from Ukraine and that they intended to attack us with the whole NATO bloc," Prigozhin said.

"The Special Military Operation that began on Feb. 24 was started for completely different reasons," he said.

MORE: What to know about the Wagner group, a 'brutal' Russian military group fighting in Ukraine

Prigozhin has been in a public feud with Russia's defense ministry and its head Sergey Shoigu for months, blaming them for Russia's disastrous prosecution of the war. As Russia has faced deepening setbacks in Ukraine, he has become an unexpected, prominent critic of Russia's leadership, using social media to post almost daily video updates excoriating it as incompetent, but stopping short of directly criticizing Putin.

Prigozhin also said in Friday's video that the two goals Putin announced at the start of the war— the "demilitarization" and "de-Nazification" of Ukraine—were "pretty stories."

Instead, he blamed Shoigu, the defense ministry and a "clan of oligarchs" for starting the war. He accused Shoigu of seeking glory and wanting "to rob" Ukraine and divide up its assets.

Prigozhin's attacks are extraordinary in Russia, where public criticism of the authorities risks harsh punishment. Since the war began last year, criticism of the military leadership has become a criminal offense.


Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, addresses Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a video released by Prigozhin Press Service, March 3, 2023, from an unspecified location in Ukraine. 
(Prigozhin Press Service via AP, File)

That has led to speculation among experts about why Prigozhin is enjoying such license. Some observers have suggested Prigozhin might be speaking with the tacit approval of the Kremlin, which may be looking to shift blame for the war from Putin by scapegoating other figures such as Shoigu.

Prigozhin did not directly attack Putin in the video, instead claiming the president was being deceived by his generals and other figures around him. In reality though, Putin—not Shoigu—has taken the lead in making the claims around Donbas and de-Nazification the central justifications of the war, reciting them in his speech declaring his "Special Military Operation."

The implicit picture Prigozhin gave of Putin as weak and out of touch was also remarkable, implying he was manipulated by a clan of wealthy businessmen around him and lied to by his military. The war, as described by Prigozhin, was not about protecting Russia or resisting NATO expansion, but instead greed.

"The war was needed by oligarchs," Prigozhin said. "It was needed by that clan that today practically rule Russia." He added Russia's "sacred war" had "turned into a racket."

MORE: 2,000 trauma operations in a year: Inside Ukraine's leading battlefield hospital

Prigozhin lambasted Russia's military leadership for the huge casualties its troops have suffered. He accused Shoigu of hollowing out the armed forces under Putin through corruption and cronyism, crippling its ability to fight effectively and then catastrophically botching the invasion after believing it would be an easy victory.

"There is a total absence of management," Prigozhin said, calling Shoigu a "weak grandfather."

"Someone should answer for the lives of those soldiers," Prigozhin said in Friday's video.

Prigozhin this week has accused the defense ministry of once again presenting a falsely upbeat picture of how Russia is fending off Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. Russia's military has claimed to have largely stymied the counteroffensive and inflicted heavy losses on Ukraine.

Putin himself has trumpeted those alleged successes, repeating claims Ukraine has suffered heavy losses of Western equipment.

MORE: Russian army officer says he saw Ukrainian POWs tortured

But Prigozhin has said in Russia's position is far more difficult, as Ukraine presses attacks at two points on the Zaporizhzhia front in the south, and Moscow is at risk of another significant defeat.

"On the ground now, today, the Russian army is retreating on the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions," Prigozhin said in Friday's video. He added that Ukrainian forces were advancing "deeper and deeper and deeper into our defenses" around Bakhmut, which his Wagner forces helped capture weeks ago.

"The leadership of the ministry of defense is thoroughly deceiving the president, and the president is receiving reports that don't correspond with reality in any way," Prigozhin said.

"Two agendas are forming—one on the ground, the other on the president's table," he said.

ABC News' Ben Gittleson contributed to this report

Wagner mercenary chief calls for armed rebellion against Russian military leadership originally appeared on abcnews.go.com


Wagner chief in coup against Russian generals warns he has 25,000 fighters ready to 'end this mess'

James Kilner
TELEGRAPH
Sat, June 24, 2023 

A video grab shows Yevgeny Prigozhin speaking inside the headquarters of the Russian southern military district in the city of Rostov-on-Don - AFP

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the mercenary Wagner group, has called for a coup against Russia’s military leaders, saying he has 25,000 fighters ready to “end this mess”.

Russian soldiers across the country were put on high alert on Friday night after Prigozhin urged citizens to stay inside and threatened to march on the Kremlin.

He accused Russian generals of carrying out on airstrike on his fighters in Ukraine. He said a “huge number” had been killed but provided no evidence.

In an audio message late on Friday night, Prigozhin said his troops were entering Rostov, a large city in the south of Russia that the Russian top military command have been using as their base.

“We crossed the state border in all places,” Prigozhin said. “The border guards came out to meet and hugged our fighters.

“We are entering Rostov. We don’t fight children. [Russian Defence Minister Sergei] Shoigu kills children. He put 18-year-old boys against us. These guys will live and go back to their mothers. But we will destroy everything that gets in the way.”

He later claimed his troops had shot down a Russian military helicopter after it opened fire on civilians in Rostov, though again he did not offer evidence of this claim.

On Saturday morning, Prigozhin claimed to have taken control of Rostov, including all military establishments and the airport, and he said dozens of Russian solders had joined his coup.

Declared a ‘foreign agent’ by Moscow

The FSB, Russia’s main intelligence service, said that it had opened a criminal case against Prigozhin, once considered one of Vladimir Putin’s most trusted fixers, and declared him to be a “foreign agent”.

The case accuses Prigozhin of launching an “armed rebellion inside Russia”. The FSB added: “This is punishable with between 12 and 20 years in prison.”

It also called on Wagner group members to ignore Prighozin and arrest him if they could.


Prigozhin said he had 25,000 fighters ready to “end this mess” - AP

In his Telegram audio message calling for an overthrow of Russian military leaders, Prighozin said: “The commanders’ council of the Wagner Private Military Company has reached a decision.

“The evil that the country’s military leadership perpetuates must be stopped.

“I ask you not to resist. Anyone who does will be considered a threat and destroyed. That goes for any checkpoints and aviation on our way.

“Presidential power, the government, the police and Russian guard will work as usual.

“This is not a military coup, but a march of justice. Our actions do not interfere with the troops in any way.”

In a later update, he added: “There are 25,000 of us and we are going to figure out what this chaos is happening in the country. Anyone who wants to join can. We need to end this mess.”

In the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, said that the Russian leader was aware of “the situation around Prigozhin”.

Later reports said that Putin’s motorcade was seen speeding through Moscow to the Kremlin from his residence in the suburbs of the capital.

General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy head of the armed forces in Ukraine, called on Prigohzin to ‘stop the convoys and return them to their bases”.

“Together we have been on a difficult path,” Gen Surovikin said. “We fought together, took risks, suffered losses and won together. We are the same blood. We are warriors. I urge you to stop.

“The enemy is just waiting for the internal political situation in our country to deteriorate. You can’t play into the hands of the enemy in these difficult times for our country.”



News reports also said that an emergency plan called “krepost”, or fortress, had deployed Russian soldiers around the capital and to strategic locations.
Putin at risk of being deposed

While Prighozin was careful to say he was not launching a coup against president Putin, without control of the armed forces the Russian leader would be profoundly weakened and at risk of being deposed.

Prigozhin is a fierce critic of Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Defence Minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the head of the military.

He said that he wanted to avenge the ordinary Russian soldiers who have been killed by incompetent leadership since the start of the invasion of Ukraine last February. Russia has lost an estimated 220,000 men in the war.

Prigozhin has been highly visible in Russia’s regions over the past few weeks since withdrawing from the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine where his forces captured the town of Bakhmut.

He has given a series of talks about the war, focusing on his criticism of Mr Shoigu.

And on Friday evening, he accused Mr Shoigu of ordering the Russian military to shell a Wagner camp and published a video of what he said was the remains of the destroyed camp.

In a statement, the Russian Ministry of Defence denied this.

“All the messages and video frames distributed on social networks on behalf of Prigozhin about the alleged strike by the Russian Ministry of Defence on the rear camps of Wagner do not correspond to reality,” it said.

War in Ukraine ‘based on lies’


Earlier on Friday Prigozhin claimed that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was based on lies that the country was a threat to Moscow and its citizens.

In an explosive video, he dismantled the case Putin has offered for the war that has killed or wounded more than 220,000 Russian soldiers.

While the outspoken Wagner commander has often criticised the conduct of Russia’s defence ministry, he has not previously attacked the central planks of Moscow’s propaganda.

“The Ministry of Defence deceived the president and the public, telling them that there was insane aggression from Ukraine and that they were going to attack us with the entire Nato bloc,” Prigohzin said.

The Wagner founder claimed instead that the war was motivated by the personal ambition of his longtime foe Sergei Shoigu and the avarice of Russian oligarchs.

“The war was needed by Shoigu to become a Marshal not in order to return Russian citizens to our bosoms and not in order to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine,” he said.

“The oligarchs needed the war. This is the clan that manages Russia today. And the second part of the operation was to install Medvedchuk as Ukraine’s president,” he said in a reference to Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Russia oligarch who is also a close friend of Putin.

Prigohzin, despite his repeated broadsides at the defence ministry, has refrained from criticising the Russian president, often instead portraying him as misled by his underlings.



Yet his latest assertion directly contradicts the rationale for the war proclaimed by Putin, who said when sending his tanks into Ukraine that it was to demilitarise and “denazify” a country that posed a threat to Russia.

It is a narrative that Russian authorities defend with fines or prison terms for those deemed to have spread “falsehoods” about the war.

There was no response to those claims from the Defence Ministry, which has ignored previous complaints from Prigozhin, in public at least. Nor was there any immediate reaction from the Kremlin, which has also declined in the past to comment on Prigozhin’s outbursts.

Putin has, however, backed a Defence Ministry order, which Prigozhin opposes, that mercenary groups like Wagner must sign contracts putting themselves under ministry control by July 1.

On Thursday, Prigozhin had accused the top brass of lying to Putin and the Russian people about the scale of Russian losses and setbacks in Ukraine.

In Friday’s video, he said Moscow could have struck a deal with Volodymr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, before the war, that the conflict had been a disaster for Russia, and that tens of thousands of young lives had been sacrificed needlessly, including members of Russia’s most capable forces.

Portraying the top brass as vodka- and cognac-swilling fools who lunch on caviar, he alleged the Russian war effort was being hobbled by corruption.

“We are bathing in our own blood,” he said. “Time is running out fast.”

Igor Girkin, a staunchly pro-war nationalist blogger who is accused of committing war crimes in Donbas in 2014, called Prigozhin an enemy of Russia after watching the interview.

“Prigozhin should have been brought to a military tribunal for a lot of things. Now also for betrayal,” he said.

Russian warlord threatens Kremlin military officials for alleged attack on his troops: report

Peter Aitken
FOX NEWS
Fri, June 23, 2023 


Russian military officials have denied attacking the mercenary Wagner Group, as the force’s founder and leader promises revenge and threatens to "resolve" the conflict.

In a series of audio clips on Russian social media site VKontakte (VK), Wagner’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin first accused Russia’s defense ministry of authorizing an attack against his forces and made several promises of retaliation.

Prigozhin claimed his camp came under fire from a "massive" missile attack, Kyiv Post reported. He also posted a video that he claimed showed the aftermath of the attack, which he said killed a "huge amount" of his troops at multiple camps.

He promised that he would punish "everyone" involved in the alleged strikes against his forces.


Founder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The Defense Ministry responded to the claims in a Telegram post, saying, "All the messages and video footage distributed on social networks on behalf of E. Prigozhin about the alleged ‘strike by the RF Ministry of Defense on the rear camps of PMC Wagner’ are untrue and are an informational provocation."

The ministry added that its forces "continue to carry out combat missions on the line of contact with the armed forces of Ukraine" in the zone of the special operation.

Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reportedly said Russian President Vladimir Putin was aware of the ongoing situation involving Wagner Group and "necessary measures are being taken."

Rebekah Koffler, a Russian-born former DIA intelligence officer told Fox News Digital that, "It appears that Prigozhin has crossed the line in his fight with the Russian security bureaucracy. The FSB, Russian domestic security service has opened a criminal investigation into Prigozhin, following his calling for a military rebellion, according to the National Counter-terrorism committee."

"This has to be a major headache for Putin now," Koffler concluded.

Russia's Tass news agency reported that the FSB public relations office called on Wagner troops to disregard Prigozhin's orders and to detain him.

Prigozhin, seen as a top Putin ally, this week took issue with the Kremlin chief’s comments about progress in Ukraine and said he and the Ministry of Defense "are misleading the Russian people."

"Huge chunks [of land] have been handed over to the enemy," he added in an audio message posted to his Telegram according to a translation by the Moscow Times.


Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner Mercenary Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a split screen image. (Getty.)

Prigozhin did not go into detail as to where his troops had given up territory to Ukrainian forces, though Ukraine earlier this week said it had made progress in the vital Zaporizhzhia region – a claim that was substantiated by a Russian official in the area.

Fox News Digital's Caitlin McFall contributed to this report.




Russian mercenary chief says his forces are rebelling, some left Ukraine and entered city in Russia


Associated Press
Fri, June 23, 2023

The owner of the Wagner private military contractor made his most direct challenge to the Kremlin yet, calling for an armed rebellion aimed at ousting Russia’s defense minister. The security services reacted immediately by calling for the arrest of Yevgeny Prigozhin.

In a sign of how seriously the Kremlin was taking the threat, security was heightened in Moscow and in Rostov-on-Don, which is home to the Russian military headquarters for the southern region and also oversees the fighting in Ukraine.

While the outcome of the confrontation was still unclear, it appeared likely to further hinder Moscow's war effort as Kyiv's forces were probing Russian defenses in the initial stages of a counteroffensive. The dispute, especially if Prigozhin were to succeed, also could have repercussions for President Vladimir Putin and his ability to maintain a united front.

Prigozhin claimed early Saturday that his forces had crossed into Russia from Ukraine and had reached Rostov, saying they faced no resistance from young conscripts at checkpoints and that his forces “aren’t fighting against children.”

“But we will destroy anyone who stands in our way,” he said in one of a series of angry video and audio recordings posted on social media beginning late Friday. “We are moving forward and will go until the end.”

He claimed that the chief of the General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, scrambled warplanes to strike Wagner’s convoys, which were driving alongside ordinary vehicles. Prigozhin also said his forces shot down a Russian military helicopter that fired on a civilian convoy, but there was no independent confirmation.

And despite Prigozhin’s statements that Wagner convoys had entered Rostov-on-Don, there was no confirmation of that yet on Russian social networks. Video posted online showed armored vehicles, including tanks, stationed on the streets and troops moving into position, but it was unclear whether they were under Wagner or military command. Earlier, heavy trucks were seen blocking highways leading into the city and long convoys of National Guard trucks were seen on a road.

The governor of the Voronezh region, just to the north, told residents that a column of military vehicles was moving along the main highway and advised them to stay off the road.

Prigozhin said Wagner field camps in Ukraine were struck by rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery fire on orders from Gerasimov following a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, at which they decided to destroy Wagner.

The Wagner forces have played a crucial role in Russia’s war in Ukraine, succeeding in taking the city where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place, Bakhmut. But Prigozhin has increasingly criticized Russia’s military brass, accusing it of incompetence and of starving his troops of weapons and ammunition.

Prigozhin, who said he had 25,000 troops under his command, said his troops would punish Shoigu in an armed rebellion and urged the army not to offer resistance: “This is not a military coup, but a march of justice.”

The National Anti-Terrorism Committee, which is part of the Federal Security Services, or FSB, charged him with calling for an armed rebellion, punishable by up to 20 years in prison.

The FSB urged Wagner's contract soldiers to arrest Prigozhin and refuse to follow his “criminal and treacherous orders.” It called his statements a “stab in the back to Russian troops” and said they amounted to fomenting armed conflict.

Putin was informed about the situation and “all the necessary measures were being taken," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Heavy military trucks and armored vehicles were seen in several parts of central Moscow early Saturday, and soldiers toting assault rifles were deployed outside the main building of the Defense Ministry. The area around the presidential administration near Red Square was blocked, snarling traffic.

But even with the heightened military presence, downtown bars and restaurants were filled with customers. At one club near the headquarters of the FSB, people were dancing in the street near the entrance.

Moscow’s mayor announced Saturday morning that counterterrorism measures were underway, including increased control of roads and possible restrictions on mass gatherings.

Prigozhin, whose feud with the Defense Ministry dates back years, had refused to comply with a requirement that military contractors sign contracts with the ministry before July 1. In a statement late Friday, he said he was ready to find a compromise but “they have treacherously cheated us.”

“Today they carried out a rocket strike on our rear camps, and a huge number of our comrades got killed,” he said. The Defense Ministry denied attacking the Wagner camps.

Prigozhin claimed that Shoigu went to the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don personally to direct the strike and then “cowardly” fled.

“The evil embodied by the country’s military leadership must be stopped,” he shouted.

Col. Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of the Russian group of forces fighting in Ukraine, urged the Wagner forces to stop any move against the army, saying it would play into the hands of Russia's enemies, who are "waiting to see the exacerbation of our domestic political situation.”

Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst, predicted this would be the end of Prigozhin.

“Now that the state has actively engaged, there’s no turning back,” she tweeted. “The termination of Prigozhin and Wagner is imminent. The only possibility now is absolute obliteration, with the degree of resistance from the Wagner group being the only variable. Surovikin was dispatched to convince them to surrender. Confrontation seems totally futile.”

Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alexeyev, a top military officer, denounced Prigozhin’s move as “madness” that threatens civil war.

“It’s a stab in the back to the country and the president. ... Such a provocation could only be staged by enemies of Russia,” he said.

The Defense Ministry said in a statement that Ukraine was concentrating troops for an attack around Bakhmut to take advantage of “Prigozhin’s provocation.” It said Russian artillery and warplanes were firing on Ukrainian forces as they prepared an offensive.

In Washington, the Institute for the Study of War, said it appeared that “Prigozhin fully intends for Wagner to move against MoD leadership and forcibly remove them from power, more likely against the Southern Military District command in Rostov-on-Don but possibly also against Moscow.”

It added that despite Putin's support for Prigozhin, he would be highly unlikely to accept any armed rebellion: “The violent overthrow of Putin loyalists like Shoigu and Gerasimov would cause irreparable damage to the stability of Putin’s perceived hold on power.”

At the White House, National Security Council Adam Hodge said: "We are monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments.”

Michael Kofman, director of Russia Studies at the CAN research group in Arlington, Virginia, tweeted that Prigozhin's actions struck him as “a desperate act, though much depends on whether Prigozhin is alone, or if others that matter join him. I’m skeptical this ends well for him or Wagner.”

In Kyiv a Russian missile attack killed at least two people and injured eight Saturday when falling debris caused a fire on several floors of a 24-story apartment building in a central district, Serhii Popko, the head of the city's military administration, posted on Telegram.

He said more than 20 missiles were detected and destroyed. Video from the scene showed a blaze in the upper floors of the building and the parking lot strewn with ash and debris.

In other developments in the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on other countries to heed warnings that Russia may be planning to attack an occupied nuclear power plant to cause a radiation disaster.

Members of his government briefed international representatives on the possible threat to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, whose six reactors have been shut down for months. Zelenskyy said he expected other nations to “give appropriate signals and exert pressure” on Moscow.

The Kremlin’s spokesman has denied the threat to the plant is coming from Russian forces.

The potential for a life-threatening release of radiation has been a concern since Russian troops invaded Ukraine last year and seized the plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power station. The head of the U.N.’s atomic energy agency spent months trying to negotiate the establishment of a safety perimeter to protect the facility as nearby areas came under repeated shelling, but he has been unsuccessful.

The International Atomic Energy Agency noted Thursday that “the military situation has become increasingly tense” amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive that began this month in Zaporizhzhia province, where the namesake plant is located, and in an adjacent part of Donetsk province.


Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader accused of 'betrayal' and 'treason' by Putin?

Lloyd Lee,Lauren Frias,Mia Jankowicz,Sophia Ankel,Nathan Rennolds
 Business Insider
Sat, June 24, 2023 

Yevgeny Prigozhin with Vladimir Putin.REUTERS/Misha Japaridze/Pool/File Photo

Yevgeny Prigozhin is a Russian tycoon with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.


He founded the Wagner Group, whose mercenaries have played a crucial role in the Ukraine conflict.


Prigozhin's fighters have entered the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don in an apparent armed rebellion.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of a Russian mercenary group known as Wagner, has played an active role in the war in Ukraine.


Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Wagner was formed in 2014, but Prigozhin only claimed to be the founder of the group in September last year.

The group is not a legally-registered entity and mercenaries are illegal under Russian law, according to The Times. But it is still seen as a de-facto private military service for the Kremlin.


According to the BBC, Wagner troops were first deployed during Russia's annexation of Crimea. Wagner also sent soldiers throughout Africa and the Middle East, according to The Times. UN investigators accused the group of committing war crimes in 2021.

While Prigozhin has played an active role in the war, he has increasingly criticized Putin for not supplying his troops with enough ammo. He vowed earlier this month to pull his troops from the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the site of one of the longest and bloodiest battles of the Russian invasion.

Prigozhin has previously been described as one of Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest allies.


Sergei Ilnitsky/AP

Prigozhin does not hold any official government position but became a confidant to the Russian leader for many years, even in matters of state affairs.

Before becoming Putin's friend and amassing his wealth, Prigozhin served several years in a Russian penal colony.


Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP

Born on June 1, 1961, in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg, Russia, Prigozhin was convicted of assault, robbery, and fraud in 1981, according to court documents obtained by Meduza, an independent Russian publication.

He was sentenced to 13 years in a penal colony but was released in nine years around the fall of the Soviet Union.

According to The New York Times, Prigozhin started his foray into the food business soon after his release by opening up a hot dog stand.

He then opened a convenience store before he started a chain of restaurants with a few partners in St. Petersburg.

His relationship with Putin began after Prigozhin set up a catering business, which frequently served the Russian leader, earning him the nickname "Putin's chef."


Misha Japaridze/Reuters

Prigozhin founded one of his major companies, Concord Catering, in 1996 as he started his restaurant business, Wired reported.

According to The Times, he soon earned the nickname of "Putin's chef."

It's unclear when he received the moniker, but over the next decade, Prigozhin's catering business received lucrative government contracts to feed Russia's schools and military, as well as an opportunity to host state banquets.

Concord Catering served at the inaugurations of Dmitri A. Medvedev and Putin, the New York Times reported. Putin would also celebrate his birthdays at Prigozhin's restaurants.

The state contracts in a span of five years were reported to be worth $3.1 billion, according to an investigation by the Anti-Corruption Foundation that was cited by The Times.

Prigozhin also heads up other companies and financed one that has been accused of meddling with the US election.


Prigozhin at a foreign investors meeting in St. Petersburg in 2016.Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

As well as his catering business, Prigozhin is publicly known to have founded Concord Management and Consulting Company and started his own online news service, according to The Times.

2018 indictment from the Justice Department also alleged that Prigozhin financed a so-called troll factory known as the Internet Research Agency.

The indictment, which included 12 other Russians and Prigozhin's Concord catering and consulting businesses, alleged that the Internet Research Agency "engaged in operations to interfere with elections and political processes."

The company did so in part by creating "false US personas" and operating social media pages discussing politics and social issues.

Prigozhin previously denied his involvement, but on November 7, 2022, he admitted to interfering in Western elections in a post on the Russian social media site VKontakte.

"We have interfered, we are interfering and we will continue to interfere," Prigozhin said. "Carefully, accurately, surgically, and in our own way, as we know how to do."

"During our pinpoint operations, we will remove both kidneys and the liver at once," Prigozhin added, alluding to the surgical-like nature of the operation.

Over the decades, the oligarch has earned the ear of Putin. When Putin's invasion of Ukraine faltered, Prigozhin told him where he was going wrong.


Prigozhin shows Putin his school lunch factory outside Saint Petersburg on September 20, 2010.ALEXEY DRUZHININ/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images

With his control of the Wagner mercenary group, he's also been an influential player during Russia's war in Ukraine.

But as reports of Russia's losses in Ukraine circulated in September last year, Prigozhin expressed misgivings about the Kremlin's management of the war to Putin, the Washington Post reported at the time.

Prigozhin denied the report to The Post and said that he "did not criticize the management of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation during the conflict in Ukraine."

But Prigozhin has previously expressed criticism against the country's military leadership.

When the Chechen Republic's head, Ramzan Kadyrov, called out a Russian commander and senior officers after Russia was forced out of Lyman in Ukraine, Prigozhin echoed those critiques, according to BBC.

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine wore on, Prigozhin began recruiting convicts to serve in the Wagner Group, and by extension help the Kremlin in its fight.


Prigozhin addresses former convicts as he releases them from serving in his mercenary army, according to state-controlled mediaRIA Novosti

In September 2022, footage emerged of a man strongly resembling Prigozhin addressing convicts in a Russian prison yard.

In it, the man offered a deal: fight for the Wagner Group in Ukraine for six months, and you get a pardon. Those who sign up and then run away will be executed, he said.

The video echoed reporting by The Wall Street Journal that Wagner was recruiting fighters from Russian prisons, something that was later confirmed by Russian state media.

In January this year, Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti shared footage of what it described as Prigozhin releasing his first batch of convicts from service.

He told the newly-pardoned men that society should respect them — and casually warned them against committing new crimes, like rape.

"Don't drink, don't use drugs, don't rape broads, behave yourselves," he said.

Prigozhin's threat that he would punish any recruited prisoner who deserted was chillingly backed up in November 2022.


A helmet of a soldier is seen after Russian Forces withdrew from Balakliia, Ukraine, on September 15, 2022.Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Video emerged of the brutal killing of a man who identified himself as Yevgeny Nuzhin, and who said he had signed up to serve with Wagner as a prisoner but then surrendered to Ukraine. He said he was told he would face retribution.

It is unclear who committed the execution.

Prigozhin acknowledged the video by calling Nuzhin a "traitor" in a statement that celebrated the man's death.

But in February 2023, Prigozhin announced that he was stopping the recruitment of prisoners. Several reports emerged that many convicts refused to join because they were worried they would simply for used as "cannon fodder" in Ukraine.


Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin attends the funeral of his fighters at the Beloostrovskoye cemetery outside St. Petersburg, Russia, on December 24, 2022.AP Photo

Prigozhin said in a Telegram statement that the mercenary organization had "completely" stopped recruiting prisoners. He offered no explanation for this.

A prisoner in Russia's Tula region told the independent Russian media outlet Meduza in a report that inmates no longer want "even to discuss the possibility" of joining the war in Ukraine.

In February, Prigozhin said the number of Wagner units "will decrease," saying that the group "will also not be able to carry out the scope of tasks that we would like to."

Source: InsiderThe Guardian

The announcement also sparked rumors about a growing rift between Prigozhin and Putin after the Wagner Group grabbed headlines.


A mural depicting mercenaries of Russia's Wagner Group reads: "Wagner Group - Russian knights."AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic

Russian state media have been told by the Kremlin to stop promoting Prigozhin and his group, according to Reuters.

"The position of the (Kremlin) political bloc is not to let him into politics. They are a little afraid of him and find him an inconvenient person," Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin advisor, told Reuters.

But Prigozhin assured a Russian interviewer that he had "zero" political ambitions.

Source: Reuters

Prigozhin has also been taking credit for Wagner's efforts to secure some territorial gains, particularly in the battles in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in what Russian state media described as the salt mines of Soledar, eastern Ukraine, on January 10 2022.RIA Novosti

In January, Wagner claimed victory in the eastern Ukrainian town of Soledar, only for the Ministry of Defense to later say it was Russian soldiers who took the town.

"They are constantly trying to steal victory from the Wagner PMC [Private Military Company] and talk about the presence of the unknown, only to belittle their merits," Prigozhin said in a statement published by the press service of Concord on its Telegram channel.

Source: Politico

This has irked some military officials, including Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, who feels like he's being compared to Prigozhin, an intelligence report said.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu at a military meeting at an undisclosed location, on January 17, 2023.Russian Defence Ministry/Vadim Savitsky/Handout via Reuters

In March, Russia released a video of Shoigu meeting soldiers on a rare visit to Ukraine.

An intelligence report by the British Ministry of Defence said the video was published possibly "in response to recent footage of [Prigozhin] visiting his fighters on the front line."

"Wagner is in a high-profile dispute with the Russian Ministry of Defence and Shoigu is likely sensitive to being compared to Prigozhin," the briefing said.

Last month, Prighozin also attacked Shoigu's son-in-law for apparently liking a series of anti-war posts on social media, calling him a "Z-lowlife," The Daily Beast reported.

Source: British Ministry of Defence

Prigozhin published photos of the corpses of dozens of Wagner troops in Bakhmut and directly blamed Shoigu and the Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov for their deaths.

Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) attend a ceremony to award Gold Star medals to Heroes of Russia, in Moscow.Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via Reuters

Prigozhin said that all of the mercenaries were killed on February 21, 2023, and that their deaths could have been avoided if Russia's Defense Ministry would have provided them with ammunition.

Russia denied his claims.

"All statements allegedly made by assault units on shell shortages are absolutely untrue," it said in a statement published by the BBC. They did not name either Prigozhin or the Wagner group.

Source: BBC, Meduza

But the public feud has led Putin to slowly distance himself from his former friend.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the Eurasian Economic Summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on November 9, 2022.Contributor/Getty Images

In a message on his Telegram channel, Prigozhin said that all of his direct lines to the Kremlin have stopped responding.

"To get me to stop asking for ammunition, all the hotlines to office, to departments, etc., have been cut off from me," Prigozhin said, per a translation from CNN.

"But the real humdinger is that they've also blocked agencies from making decisions," Prigozhin added, per CNN.

Source: Insider

In May, the feud came to a tipping point when Prigozhin went ballistic on the Kremlin in an expletive-laden video.


A furious Yevgeny Prigozhin screams at Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov.Screenshot/Press Service of Prigozhin/Telegram

In the video, released on Telegram, Wagner complained that the mercenary group was running short of ammunition.

"We have a 70% ammo shortage! Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where the [beep] is the ammo?" he said in the video.

He also said that Russian military leaders, like Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, would "have their insides eaten in hell."

"You animals are hanging out in expensive clubs," Prigozhin continued. "Your children are enjoying their lives, making videos for YouTube. Do you think that you are the masters of this life and that you have the right to control their lives?"

Source: Insider

Leaked documents also suggested that Prigozhin offered Ukrainians the locations of invading troops in exchange for sparing his mercenaries in January.


A Ukrainian medic runs through a partially dug trench on the frontline outside Bakhmut on March 5, 2023.John Moore/Getty Images

The documents, first reported on by The Washington Post, said that the Wagner leader proposed sharing Russian intelligence with Kyiv in exchange for territory around Bakhmut on multiple occasions.

One Ukrainian official told the Post that Kyiv leaders, skeptical of his objectives, declined.

Prigozhin has since denied the reports, saying in an audio statement: "Who is behind this? I think that either some journalists decided to hype, or comrades from Rublyovka have now decided to make up a beautiful, planted story," CNN reported.

In the latest development, Prigozhin has claimed that his Wagner fighters have seized the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, including "all military facilities," in an apparent armed rebellion.


Fighters of Wagner private mercenary group are deployed in a street near the headquarters of the Southern Military District in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24, 2023.Reuters

Fighters from the Wagner Group entered the southern Russian city after crossing the border from Ukraine, with Prigozhin saying that they would "destroy" anyone who stood in their way.

Addressing the news on June 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the group's actions were a "betrayal" and constituted "treason."

"Those who mutiny have betrayed Russia and I urge anybody involved in it to cease any kind of participation in armed conflict," he said, per a translation by The Telegraph.

Putin has since ramped up security in Moscow, with both the National Guard and riot police called in to defend key government buildings and transport infrastructure, according to Sky News.

Prigozhin has denied that his troops are carrying out a coup, saying that it was a "march for justice."

Editor's note: This list was first published in October 2022 and has been updated to reflect recent developments.


Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Did Putin kill Prigozhin? It's one of 3 possible explanations Russia watchers came up with for the deadly plane crash

Erin Snodgrass,Kelsey Vlamis
Wed, August 23, 2023 

Yevgeny Prigozhin was a longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin before staging a failed mutiny against the Russian defense ministry in June 2023.Getty Images

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is presumed dead after his plane crashed on Wednesday.

His apparent death comes two months after he staged a failed mutiny against the Russian military.

Security officials and Soviet experts believe Putin is likely behind Prigozhin's death.


Yevgeny Prigozhin, the bombastic Wagner Group leader who led a short-lived uprising against Russia's defense ministry earlier this summer, is presumed dead after his business jet went down in a fiery crash outside of Moscow on Wednesday.

It was not immediately clear if Prigozhin was on the downed plane, though his name was on the flight manifest. Russian state media outlet TASS later appeared to confirm that Prigozhin and his second-in-command Dmitry Utkin, were among those dead, citing the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency.

Wagner-affiliated social media said Prigozhin was killed in the crash, blaming "traitors of Russia." The Russian defense ministry did not immediately comment on the matter.

Even as the immediate chaos of the situation dissipates and official statements are issued, few are likely to ever learn the full scope of the saga due to Russia's winding web of propaganda.

There is a chance this was an accident: but a warlord going rogue, stabbing his political benefactor in the back, so to speak, and then apparently dying in a freak plane crash seems like a bit of a stretch compared to some other alternatives.

Here are three possible explanations experts have put forward on what could have happened to Yevgeny Prigozhin based on what we know so far.

Scenario 1: Putin ordered Prigozhin's death

An assassination ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin represents the "best explanation" for Wednesday's catastrophic plane crash, Simon Miles, an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy and a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations, told Insider.

Putin, a notoriously unforgiving leader, had plenty of reasons to want Prigozhin dead after the mercenary leader led a mutiny against Russia's defense ministry in June seeking to oust top-level officials after he spent months publicly criticizing the Russian military's strategy in Ukraine. The uprising was short-lived but nonetheless represented the most prominent threat to Putin's regime in decades.

"It's no surprise that Putin would take his revenge," Robert English, a professor at the University of Southern California who studies Russia, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe, told Insider. "In fact, we Putin-watchers have been expecting it, and today it happened — on exactly the two-month anniversary of the Wagner mutiny."

In the months since the attempted coup, international officials and academic experts alike have been predicting Prigozhin's death. CIA Director Bill Burns suggested just last month that Prigozhin was living on borrowed time.


Yevgeny Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin in happier times — a 2010 tour of a school lunch factory outside Saint Petersburg.
Alexey Druzhinin/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images

"Putin is someone who generally thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold," Burns said at an annual security forum in Aspen. "In my experience, Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback so I would be surprised if Prigozhin escapes further retribution for this."

A seemingly uneasy truce emerged between Putin and Prigozhin after the uprising. Prigozhin was apparently exiled to Belarus for his role in the attempted coup, but seemed to spend much of the last two months traveling between St. Petersburg and Moscow, and even appeared to take a trip to Africa to visit his Wagner troops, Miles said.

Soon after the exile agreement was made public, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed he was the one who stopped Putin from "wiping out" Prigozhin immediately after the uprising, Reuters reported, indicating Putin's desire for blood may have been brewing for months.

In the aftermath of the plane crash, an undated interview clip of Putin circulated on social media highlighting the president's distaste for disloyalty such as Prigozhin's revolt, which Putin expressly called a "betrayal."

"Does one need to be able to forgive?" the interviewer asks Putin.

"Yes, but not everything," the president replies.

"What can't be forgiven?"

"Betrayal," Putin says without hesitation.



The Russian president has a long history of making his enemies "disappear." At least 14 individuals linked to Putin's government have died under violent or mysterious circumstances since he took the presidency.

Following the Wednesday plane crash, US President Joe Biden suggested Putin could be behind the crash in comments to reporters.

"I'd be careful what I rode in," he said. "There is not much that happens in Russia that Putin is not behind."
Scenario 2: Someone else ordered Prigozhin's assassination

Up until his ill-fated uprising, Prigozhin remained a close ally of Putin. The mercenary leader's grievances were exclusively directed at the Russian defense ministry — not the president himself.

It is not "inconceivable" that elements within the military who were on the receiving end of Prigozhin's abuse could have taken action against the Wagner leader without Putin's approval, Miles told Insider.

"It's very hard at this early stage to put together an explanation for what we've seen that does not involve some state assets being used to knock this plane out of the sky," Miles said. It's unclear at this point what specifically caused the plane to crash, though some Wagner-affiliated social media channels suggested it was shot down.

It's the military that has access to such capabilities, he said, adding that the level of command needed to launch such an attack within the Russian military is "very low."


Founder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin.Press service of "Concord"/Handout via REUTERS

This possibility could also account for Prigozhin's two months of seeming freedom following the coup, Miles said.

Why allow Prigozhin to live for weeks, flaunting his apparent immunity, if there were top-level plans to kill him, Miles posited. An immediate strike against Prigozhin would have sent a louder message and illustrated the immediate consequences awaiting traitors.

"He was running around basically unmolested since the coup attempt," Miles said of Prigozhin. It's possible members of the defense sector found that reality unacceptable, especially after members of the Russian armed forces were killed in his mutiny, and "decided to take matters into their own hands."

There is substantial evidence of dysfunction within the Russian government. Russia this week, for instance, fired Gen. Sergei Surovikin weeks after The New York Times reported he had advance knowledge of Prigozhin's mutinous plans, posing questions of whether the mercenary leader had help from within the military.

English, however, rejected the idea that someone within Putin's military would act without the president's explicit permission. But in ruling out a Russian defense perpetrator, English raised another potential culprit.

"Who else might want Prigozhin dead and have the capability to carry it out? Of course, the Ukrainians!" he told Insider.

Both English and Miles noted the "unnecessarily dramatic" and "aggressively public" manner of the plane crash — a stark departure from the mysterious deaths of other Putin foes from poison and falls out of windows.

"If so, it's a stroke of genius," English said of Ukraine's possible role in the incident. "Dramatically assassinate the killer of many Ukrainians. Pull off another brilliant strike inside Russia. Humiliate Putin. And all on the eve of Ukraine's independence day."
Scenario 3": Prigozhin is not dead

The most conspiracy theory-driven possibility of all is that the mercenary leader is not dead, and yet a Prigozhin fake death plot cannot be entirely ruled out, given the Wagner leader's affinity for disguises and doubles coupled with Russia's less-than-trustworthy media landscape.

Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor of national security and international affairs at the University of New Haven, said in comments shared with Insider that it is "prudent to be skeptical" of Russian government updates on the situation given "how Byzantine Russian politics is."

"People I know seriously argue it might not be the real Prigozhin," Schmidt said.

In the early hours following the plane crash, some on social media considered the possibility that Prigozhin had somehow faked his death, perhaps sending a double in his place.

A Pentagon official told The New York Times in July that Prigozhin was known to have used body doubles in the past, and photos of Prigozhin donning bizarre disguises were circulated by pro-Kremlin Telegram channels following his failed mutiny.

But the likelihood that Prigozhin managed to escape death seems to have lessened in the hours since the crash as more information becomes available and people turn to the most probable perpetrator: Putin.

Prigozhin’s jet crash ‘isn’t an accident’ and has hallmarks of FSB, say British security sources

Ben Riley-Smith
Wed, August 23, 2023


Prigozhin’s death was 'like some sort of Russian opera', said John Foreman, the former British defence attache in Moscow - AFP via Getty Images


British security sources believe that the shooting down of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private jet was carried out by the FSB intelligence agency on the orders of Vladimir Putin.

“Of course it’s Putin,” one source said.

“Putin as a leader cannot afford to be humiliated in the way that he was. Putin functions on two things: Loyalty above talent… and the consequence of betrayal”.

Another said: “All the mood music, all the habits, all the history point to the FSB.”

The source added: “The FSB remains loyal to Putin.”

Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6, told the Telegraph that news of Prigozhin’s death was “unsurprising”.

“Most people will jump to the conclusion that this isn’t an accident,” he said.

‘Putin’s revenge’

“I’m sure it’ll be presented as an accident and there will be an element of doubt but everyone in the West will come to the same conclusion that this is Putin’s revenge on people who challenge his power base.”

He added: “We used to have a saying when I worked on the Soviet Union, which was that the wise line to take on Soviet Russia was that nothing happened by accident and one might apply that to this event.”

John Foreman, the British defence attache in Moscow from 2019 to 2022, told the Telegraph that Prigozhin’s death was “like some sort of Russian opera”.

“The timing is not accidental,” he said.

“Two months to the day Prigozhin had his march on Moscow, his mutiny, a few days later he’s dead. Mr Putin’s revenge has been served on Prigozhin. The speed with which the Russian system has acknowledged it strikes me as preorganisation has been going on.”

‘Only a question of time’

He added: “Putin is willing to take revenge against those who threaten him and sends a chilling effect to anyone who wants to come for him. It’s in the daytime, all over the media, anyone else thinking they would come for the tsar will think again. It shows the brutality and violence at the heart of the Russian regime, which is how he has stayed in power for so long.”

Orysia Lutsevych, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia programme and head of the Ukraine forum at Chatham House, said: “If Prigozhin is indeed dead, as claimed, it is a logical development that follows a failed mutiny against the Kremlin.

“After the revolt that challenged Putin’s narrative about the invasion of Ukraine and undermined his stronghold on power, it was only a question of time and mode of Prigozhin’s elimination.

“Alive, he was always a threat and a reminder that Putin is weak. It remains to be seen if Prigozhin’s supporters just swallow a bitter pill or further grow their ranks. In any case, the conflict within security and defence agencies of Russia will only deepen, as Ukraine’s summer and fall offensive further degrades Russian armed forces.

Biden admin shrugs at Prigozhin’s death as questions about Wagner’s future linger

Alexander Ward
Wed, August 23, 2023

AP Photo

While the news of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death stunned the world, the response within official Washington was a collective shrug.

Officials demurred from commenting on the circumstances of the downing of a flight with Prigozhin aboard, stressing instead that everyone knew this was the likely outcome of his failed mutiny against Moscow in June and that it doesn’t change the U.S. calculation on Russia or its war in Ukraine.

Asked during his vacation in Lake Tahoe if Russian President Vladimir Putin was behind the crash of Prigozhin’s private plane, carrying him and nine others, President Joe Biden said “there’s not much that happens in Russia that Putin’s not behind, but I don’t know enough to know the answer.”

The Wagner Group chief, a once-close Putin confidant and a backer of coups and repressive governments around the world, had widely been considered a dead man walking ever since his June insurrection. Russia’s civil aviation agency confirmed Wednesday that Prigozhin was aboard the doomed aircraft.

Adrienne Watson, the National Security Council’s spokesperson, said before confirmation of Prigozhin’s demise that “no one should be surprised” by the initial reports. “The disastrous war in Ukraine led to a private army marching on Moscow, and now — it would seem — to this.”

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, stated Wednesday “no one should mourn Prigozhin’s death,” adding that it’s “another reminder of the brutality of the Putin regime, and why we must continue our support for Ukraine in its fight for freedom.”

So far, little seems to have shifted in terms of thinking or operations inside the administration. Officials seek more intelligence about what occurred, but ultimately they expect Putin to stay the course in Ukraine. Not having to contend with Prigozhin, who was openly critical of the Kremlin’s conduct of the invasion, could help Putin consolidate control and tamp down internal rivalries.

Experts warn that the administration will encounter a different Wagner Group now that Prigozhin is gone. “It’s the definitive end of Wagner as we knew it,” the RAND Corporation’s Samuel Charap summarized.

Charap and four other U.S.-based Russia watchers said in interviews that Moscow will likely let the mercenaries act with pseudo independence in Africa, likely under the leadership of a quieter figure.

“You don’t want to be well known because it makes you a threat to the regime,” said Alina Polyakova, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Eric Green, who recently left the NSC as the top Russia specialist, said “it will be hard for Russia to project power in Africa as effectively without Prigozhin.” He added: “Prigozhin was an odious human being but he had managerial skills and a kind of charisma. That’s not easy to replicate.”

Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry will continue to bring some Wagner forces into the official military, perhaps deploying them as special forces in Ukraine or elsewhere, experts agreed.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Max Bergmann argues that removing Wagner’s beloved leader might backfire on Putin. “Decapitating Wagner — an effective tool for the Kremlin globally and in Ukraine — keeping incompetent loyalists in charge of the war, and removing effective generals will lead to growing frustration in the ranks, especially if there are more battlefield losses,” he said.

More tumult inside Russia’s ranks could further complicate Putin’s war on Ukraine, giving Kyiv a boost as its counteroffensive sputters and inspiring confidence in Ukraine’s Western backers to further pump arms into the fight.

In the immediate term, there “certainly is no effect on U.S. policy,” said Green.

The largest looming question is what Moscow will do with the more than 3,000 Wagner mercenaries in Belarus. They’ve been training Belarusian special forces near the Polish border, spooking the NATO country and Western powers. The mercenaries could come back to Russia to serve in the conventional military, but, if so, those who served alongside Prigozhin in the short-lived revolt will be met with skepticism.

Loyalty to Prigozhin is still on display in Russia. Images circulating online showed the windows of Wagner’s headquarters in St. Petersburg lit up in the shape of a cross.

Russian mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin's plane appeared fine on radar until last 30 seconds

Valerie Insinna and Allison Lampert
Wed, August 23, 2023

Plane crash in Tver region

(Reuters) - An Embraer Legacy 600 executive jet, believed to have carried Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin to his death on Wednesday, showed no sign of problem until a precipitous drop in its final 30 seconds, according to flight-tracking data.

Rosaviatsia, Russia's aviation agency said Prigozhin, who led an aborted mutiny in June, was one of 10 people on board the downed plane. It was traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg when it crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino in the Tver Region, Russia's emergency situations ministry said.

At 3:19 p.m. GMT, the aircraft made a “sudden downward vertical,” said Ian Petchenik of Flightradar24. Within about 30 seconds, the aircraft had plummeted more than 8,000 feet from its cruising altitude of 28,000 feet.

“Whatever happened, happened quickly,” Petchenik said.

“They may have been wrestling (with the aircraft) after whatever happened," Petchenik said. But prior to its dramatic drop, there was "no indication that there was anything wrong with this aircraft.”

Video showed the plane descending rapidly with its nose pointing almost straight downward and a plume of smoke or vapor behind it.

Russian investigators opened a criminal probe to determine what happened. Some unnamed sources told Russian media they believed the plane had been shot down by one or more surface-to-air missiles. Reuters could not confirm that.

Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA said it had not been providing any service or support in recent years to the plane, which seats around 13.

The company said in a statement it has complied with international sanctions imposed against Russia. The luxury jet was identified on Flightradar24 with registration RA-02795, the same as the plane that carried Prigozhin to Belarus after the mutiny, an industry source familiar with the matter said.

Online flight tracker Flightradar24 last recorded the position of the aircraft at 3:11 p.m. GMT, before the crash. Jamming or interference in the area probably slowed the collection of further location data.

Other data continued for nine minutes. Flightradar24 said the jet went thorough a series of ascents and descents of a few thousand feet each over 30 seconds before its final, disastrous plunge. Flightradar24 received its final data on the jet at 3:20 p.m.

(Reporting by Valerie Insinna in Washington, Allison Lampert in Montreal; additional reporting by Gabriel Araujo in Sao Paulo and Caroline Pulice in Mexico City; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

Embraer jet model that crashed, reportedly carrying Prigozhin, had good safety record

Carolina Pulice and Gabriel Araujo
Updated Wed, August 23, 2023 

European Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition (EBACE) in Geneva


(Reuters) -The Embraer executive jet model that crashed in Russia, apparently with Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin onboard, has only recorded one accident in over 20 years of service, and that was not related to mechanical failure.

Russian authorities said Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on a private jet that crashed on Wednesday evening, killing all those onboard. Russia's TASS news agency said the plane was a Brazilian Embraer jet.

Embraer said it was aware of a plane crash in Russia involving a Legacy 600 aircraft, but it did not have further information about the case and had not been providing support services for the jet since 2019.

"Embraer has complied with international sanctions imposed on Russia," the planemaker said. Sanctions block Western planemakers from providing parts or support for planes operated in Russia.

Flightradar24 online tracker showed that the Embraer Legacy 600 (plane number RA-02795) said to be carrying Prigozhin had dropped off the radar at 6:11 p.m. local time (1511 GMT). An unverified video on social media showed a plane resembling a private jet falling out of the sky toward the earth.

The Legacy 600 entered service in 2002, according to International Aviation HQ, with almost 300 produced until production ceased in 2020.

There is only one recorded accident involving a Legacy 600, according to International Aviation HQ, which occurred in 2006 when it crashed mid-air into a Gol Boeing 737-800 on its way from the Embraer factory in Brazil to the United States.

Despite damage to the aircraft, the pilot landed the Embraer plane and there were no deaths or injuries. The Boeing commercial airliner was downed and all 154 passengers killed.

Two years later, a Brazilian air force report blamed two U.S. pilots, traffic controllers and faulty communications for the mid-air collision.

At the time, a lawyer for the pilots said individual air traffic controllers and flaws in Brazil's air traffic control system caused the accident.

(Additional reporting by Allison Lampert; Editing by Gabriel Stargardter and Stephen Coates)