TURKIYE'S WAR ON SYRIAN KURDISTAN
Analysis:
With thousands having already fled the rebel offensive in Aleppo and surrounding areas, Syrian Kurds fear for their future in the country's northwest.
Paul Iddon
04 December, 2024
THE NEW ARAB
The momentous takeover of Syria’s second city, Aleppo, and surrounding areas on 29 November by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed self-styled Syrian National Army (SNA) has significant ramifications for Syria and possibly the wider region.
More immediate, however, is its impact on the hundreds of thousands of Kurds who live in northwest Syria.
As Aleppo collapsed to the lightning HTS-led offensive, the Turkish-backed SNA seized on the momentum to capture the town of Tel Rifaat and surrounding villages from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).
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Tens of thousands of Kurds have fled from that area. They are enduring freezing winter conditions on their way to the relative safety of the Kurdish-administered territories east of the Euphrates River.
HTS originated as an offshoot of Al-Qaeda called Jabhat al-Nusra and has fought the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the early years of the civil war that began in 2011. The group has established itself as Assad’s most formidable adversary in the conflict and has long controlled large parts of Syria’s strategic northwestern Idlib province.
The SNA consists of numerous armed groups that Turkey has used as proxies, mainly against the YPG and the larger multi-ethnic Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the YPG is the backbone. Turkey used these rebels to invade the northwestern Kurdish enclave of Afrin in 2018, displacing tens of thousands of its native population, primarily into the adjacent Tel Rifaat area. These same Kurds now find themselves displaced once again.
Aleppo city has two Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods, Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh. Altogether, there are approximately 500,000 Kurds in this large northwestern area west of the Euphrates River, now largely under HTS and SNA control.
“Kurds have had a bad experience with HTS folks from the Jabhat al-Nusra days,” Mohammed A. Salih, Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert on Kurdish and regional affairs, told The New Arab.
“The fundamental problem with many Assad opposition groups is that they are chauvinistic toward Kurds, perhaps as a result of decades of Baathist exclusionary nationalist teachings,” he said.
In Salih’s estimation, most of these groups are Islamist extremists, putting them at odds with the majority of Syria’s Kurdish minority.
“Kurds want to deal with a party in the opposition that is willing to take into account their demands for cultural and political rights as a distinct community within Syria,” Salih said. “And even though the majority of Syrian Kurds are Muslims, they are staunchly secular in their way of life and expect this to be respected.”
In his view, Kurdish civilians are undoubtedly in danger due to the current circumstances in Aleppo and other areas west of the Euphrates.
Paul Iddon
04 December, 2024
THE NEW ARAB
The momentous takeover of Syria’s second city, Aleppo, and surrounding areas on 29 November by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed self-styled Syrian National Army (SNA) has significant ramifications for Syria and possibly the wider region.
More immediate, however, is its impact on the hundreds of thousands of Kurds who live in northwest Syria.
As Aleppo collapsed to the lightning HTS-led offensive, the Turkish-backed SNA seized on the momentum to capture the town of Tel Rifaat and surrounding villages from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).
Related
Syria's rebel offensive: Why now and what could happen next?
Analysis
Shelly Kittleson
Tens of thousands of Kurds have fled from that area. They are enduring freezing winter conditions on their way to the relative safety of the Kurdish-administered territories east of the Euphrates River.
HTS originated as an offshoot of Al-Qaeda called Jabhat al-Nusra and has fought the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the early years of the civil war that began in 2011. The group has established itself as Assad’s most formidable adversary in the conflict and has long controlled large parts of Syria’s strategic northwestern Idlib province.
The SNA consists of numerous armed groups that Turkey has used as proxies, mainly against the YPG and the larger multi-ethnic Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the YPG is the backbone. Turkey used these rebels to invade the northwestern Kurdish enclave of Afrin in 2018, displacing tens of thousands of its native population, primarily into the adjacent Tel Rifaat area. These same Kurds now find themselves displaced once again.
Aleppo city has two Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods, Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh. Altogether, there are approximately 500,000 Kurds in this large northwestern area west of the Euphrates River, now largely under HTS and SNA control.
“Kurds have had a bad experience with HTS folks from the Jabhat al-Nusra days,” Mohammed A. Salih, Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert on Kurdish and regional affairs, told The New Arab.
“The fundamental problem with many Assad opposition groups is that they are chauvinistic toward Kurds, perhaps as a result of decades of Baathist exclusionary nationalist teachings,” he said.
In Salih’s estimation, most of these groups are Islamist extremists, putting them at odds with the majority of Syria’s Kurdish minority.
“Kurds want to deal with a party in the opposition that is willing to take into account their demands for cultural and political rights as a distinct community within Syria,” Salih said. “And even though the majority of Syrian Kurds are Muslims, they are staunchly secular in their way of life and expect this to be respected.”
In his view, Kurdish civilians are undoubtedly in danger due to the current circumstances in Aleppo and other areas west of the Euphrates.
Analysts view the Turkish-backed SNA as a markedly more significant threat to Kurds than HTS. [Getty]
“Kurds cannot trust the HTS or the SNA,” Salih said. “They have good reason for this based on the ideological nature of these groups and their past records both in dealing with them and the non-Sunni, non-Arab and non-Turkmen populations of Syria,” he added. “It’s a very fluid and unpredictable situation.”
Consequently, he believes the “best option” for Kurds is to evacuate east of the Euphrates, where the SDF is in a much better position to protect them. Reports suggest that the YPG has begun pulling forces from the Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods in coordination with HTS to allow Kurdish residents to evacuate.
It’s unclear if HTS can provide security guarantees for any Kurds who decide to remain in their homes in the city.
“In Aleppo, it depends on whether the YPG can reach a reliable understanding with HTS there for Kurdish civilians not to be harmed. There is no guarantee for that,” Salih said.
“In reality, it is more likely that a humanitarian disaster will materialise as a result of the influx of tens of thousands of displaced people to SDF-controlled areas in west Euphrates, which are already stretched thin in terms of resources and governance capabilities,” he added.
Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, described the present situation for Kurds in northern Syria as “precarious” but believes they have a better chance of surviving under HTS rule than other Syrian minorities.
“In theory, HTS’s Islamist worldview is actually less of a menace to Kurds per se, those that do not have ties to the YPG, since Kurds are Muslims,” Orton told TNA. “Christians and particularly Alawis have the most to fear from HTS rule, again in theory.”
He noted that HTS has made a “concerted effort to present a tolerant face” towards minorities in areas it has controlled, such as Christians in Idlib.
“Kurds cannot trust the HTS or the SNA,” Salih said. “They have good reason for this based on the ideological nature of these groups and their past records both in dealing with them and the non-Sunni, non-Arab and non-Turkmen populations of Syria,” he added. “It’s a very fluid and unpredictable situation.”
Consequently, he believes the “best option” for Kurds is to evacuate east of the Euphrates, where the SDF is in a much better position to protect them. Reports suggest that the YPG has begun pulling forces from the Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods in coordination with HTS to allow Kurdish residents to evacuate.
It’s unclear if HTS can provide security guarantees for any Kurds who decide to remain in their homes in the city.
“In Aleppo, it depends on whether the YPG can reach a reliable understanding with HTS there for Kurdish civilians not to be harmed. There is no guarantee for that,” Salih said.
“In reality, it is more likely that a humanitarian disaster will materialise as a result of the influx of tens of thousands of displaced people to SDF-controlled areas in west Euphrates, which are already stretched thin in terms of resources and governance capabilities,” he added.
Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, described the present situation for Kurds in northern Syria as “precarious” but believes they have a better chance of surviving under HTS rule than other Syrian minorities.
“In theory, HTS’s Islamist worldview is actually less of a menace to Kurds per se, those that do not have ties to the YPG, since Kurds are Muslims,” Orton told TNA. “Christians and particularly Alawis have the most to fear from HTS rule, again in theory.”
He noted that HTS has made a “concerted effort to present a tolerant face” towards minorities in areas it has controlled, such as Christians in Idlib.
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“How long any of this lasts is anyone’s guess: whatever the formal status of HTS’s relations with Al-Qaeda, it is a jihadist-derived entity, and there is every reason for scepticism,” Orton said.
“Assuming HTS does not initiate a concerted campaign of persecution against Kurds in Sheikh Maqsoud and other Kurdish-majority areas it has captured, we should expect most people to stay put,” he added.
“Settled communities will endure great hardships to maintain their homes and only move when they really have no other choice.”
Both analysts see the Turkish-backed SNA as a markedly more significant threat to Kurds than HTS.
“What we are seeing is that there is an actual demographic change campaign against Kurds underway in areas west of the Euphrates, particularly those areas under the control of the SNA. The SNA represents the most anti-Kurdish faction among the anti-Assad opposition groups,” Salih said.
“Kurds in the Tel Rifaat and the entire Shahba region are in danger of retribution by SNA groups whose entire mission at this point at Turkey’s behest appears to be fighting Kurds,” he added. “A mass displacement of Kurds from these areas is already going on.”
Orton also believes the SNA is a “much more worrying” threat to Kurds.
“There is little discipline in SNA ranks, and its fighters carry a much more bitterly ethno-sectarian outlook,” he said. “The chances of indiscriminate attacks on Kurdish populations by the SNA are much higher, and even without a targeted assault, the SNA’s governance methods are much more predatory and chaotic,” he added.
A humanitarian disaster could materialise as a result of the influx of tens of thousands of displaced people to SDF-controlled areas in west Euphrates. [Getty]
“It will not be so easy to live a ‘normal’ life in areas the SNA administers, and there is every reason to expect a larger outflow of Kurds.”
As if matters couldn’t get any worse, this new crisis could unwittingly end up empowering remnants of the Islamic State (IS) if the SDF has to focus its attention and resources elsewhere. The US has partnered with the SDF against IS for a decade now. The SDF was the main fighting force against IS, dismantling the entirety of its territorial self-styled caliphate on Syrian soil by 2019.
“It has to be assumed that the SDF will take contingency steps to protect its borders, and to that extent, its focus on IS diminishes. Odds are that IS will try to make its presence felt in the current melee,” Orton said.
“It seems likely IS will make its move in the northwest, at the centre of the action, but it could well be within the SDF statelet, especially if developments extend the instability further east,” he added.
Salih also believes the post-29 November turmoil is “inevitably impacting” SDF priorities.
“If Kurds are under attack in northwestern Syria, SDF fighters will have less incentive to prioritise the fight against IS,” he said.
In Salih’s view, this situation “highlights a fundamental miscalculation” in America’s strategy toward Syria’s Kurds, namely focusing exclusively on their joint fight against IS. By doing so, Washington ignored the “dire governance and humanitarian conditions” in the SDF-controlled areas caused by Turkish strikes and now the mass displacement and killing of Kurds in northwest Syria.
“This approach is unsustainable and counterproductive,” Salih said. “If continued, it will only further bolster IS and recreate the conditions for its resurgence.”
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs.
Follow him on Twitter: @pauliddon
“It will not be so easy to live a ‘normal’ life in areas the SNA administers, and there is every reason to expect a larger outflow of Kurds.”
As if matters couldn’t get any worse, this new crisis could unwittingly end up empowering remnants of the Islamic State (IS) if the SDF has to focus its attention and resources elsewhere. The US has partnered with the SDF against IS for a decade now. The SDF was the main fighting force against IS, dismantling the entirety of its territorial self-styled caliphate on Syrian soil by 2019.
“It has to be assumed that the SDF will take contingency steps to protect its borders, and to that extent, its focus on IS diminishes. Odds are that IS will try to make its presence felt in the current melee,” Orton said.
“It seems likely IS will make its move in the northwest, at the centre of the action, but it could well be within the SDF statelet, especially if developments extend the instability further east,” he added.
Salih also believes the post-29 November turmoil is “inevitably impacting” SDF priorities.
“If Kurds are under attack in northwestern Syria, SDF fighters will have less incentive to prioritise the fight against IS,” he said.
In Salih’s view, this situation “highlights a fundamental miscalculation” in America’s strategy toward Syria’s Kurds, namely focusing exclusively on their joint fight against IS. By doing so, Washington ignored the “dire governance and humanitarian conditions” in the SDF-controlled areas caused by Turkish strikes and now the mass displacement and killing of Kurds in northwest Syria.
“This approach is unsustainable and counterproductive,” Salih said. “If continued, it will only further bolster IS and recreate the conditions for its resurgence.”
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs.
Follow him on Twitter: @pauliddon
'We feel abandoned': Fear rises among Aleppo’s Kurdish residents
The takeover of Aleppo by the Islamist rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has left the city’s Kurdish minority on edge. As Kurdish fighters reportedly withdrew from the area, a resident of the Kurdish quarter of Aleppo shared his concerns with the FRANCE 24 Observers team.
Issued on: 03/12/2024 -
By: Guillaume Maurice
On the night of November 29-30, Islamist rebel groups led by Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. Within the Kurdish minority now trapped in the city, many fear reprisals from HTS, whose fighters include former members of the Al-Nusra Front, a group once linked to Al-Qaeda.
Read more Key points on the rebel gains that reignited Syria's civil war
Since 2016, most of Aleppo has been held by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s army, except for the northern part which remained under the control of Syrian Kurdish forces.
Sporadic clashes were reported later that day, though these accounts could not be independently verified.
The takeover of Aleppo by the Islamist rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has left the city’s Kurdish minority on edge. As Kurdish fighters reportedly withdrew from the area, a resident of the Kurdish quarter of Aleppo shared his concerns with the FRANCE 24 Observers team.
Issued on: 03/12/2024 -
Aleppo's Kurdish district has been plunged into uncertainty since the arrival of HTS Islamist rebel groups. This image shows Kurdish fighters (left and right) and a Syrian islamist rebel (centre).
© The Observers
By: Guillaume Maurice
On the night of November 29-30, Islamist rebel groups led by Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. Within the Kurdish minority now trapped in the city, many fear reprisals from HTS, whose fighters include former members of the Al-Nusra Front, a group once linked to Al-Qaeda.
Read more Key points on the rebel gains that reignited Syria's civil war
Since 2016, most of Aleppo has been held by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s army, except for the northern part which remained under the control of Syrian Kurdish forces.
This map shows areas of Aleppo under the control of the Islamist rebel HTS on December 2, 2024 in green. Zones controlled by the Kurdish-led SDF are shown in yellow.
© LiveUaMap
The Sheikh Maqsoud district in northern Aleppo has been under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) since the 2012–2016 Battle of Aleppo. The Kurdish forces navigated a complex web of alliances, clashing at times with Assad’s regime and fighting against other Syrian rebel factions.
When HTS advances were first reported, Kurdish fighters said they were ready to defend Sheikh Maqsoud. Some started converging towards Aleppo during the night.
The Sheikh Maqsoud district in northern Aleppo has been under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) since the 2012–2016 Battle of Aleppo. The Kurdish forces navigated a complex web of alliances, clashing at times with Assad’s regime and fighting against other Syrian rebel factions.
When HTS advances were first reported, Kurdish fighters said they were ready to defend Sheikh Maqsoud. Some started converging towards Aleppo during the night.
Dans cette vidéo publiée le 29 novembre 2024 des membres de la minorité kurde d’Alep se disent prêts à défendre leur quartier de la ville, Cheikh-Maksoud. ©X/ofisa_agahi
As HTS fighters were taking control of Aleppo, clashes broke out between Kurdish fighters and members of both the HTS and the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of Turkish-backed armed groups. Kurdish soldiers were reported captured.
As HTS fighters were taking control of Aleppo, clashes broke out between Kurdish fighters and members of both the HTS and the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of Turkish-backed armed groups. Kurdish soldiers were reported captured.
This video, posted on December 1, 2024 and geolocated in northern Aleppo, shows Kurdish fighters being captured by HTS forces.
On December 1, the HTS issued a statement via Telegram calling on Kurdish fighters to evacuate Sheikh Maqsoud. “We propose that you leave Aleppo with your weapons, heading safely to northeastern Syria. We affirm that Syrian Kurds are an integral part of Syrian society, and should enjoy the same rights as the rest of the country's population,” the statement reads.
On December 1, the HTS issued a statement via Telegram calling on Kurdish fighters to evacuate Sheikh Maqsoud. “We propose that you leave Aleppo with your weapons, heading safely to northeastern Syria. We affirm that Syrian Kurds are an integral part of Syrian society, and should enjoy the same rights as the rest of the country's population,” the statement reads.
In this statement published on December 1, 2024, the Islamist rebel group HTS asks Kurdish forces to evacuate the city of Aleppo. In return, they agree not to attack Kurdish civilians in the city.
© Telegram / aleamaliaat_aleaskaria
In response, the SDF commander-in-chief announced plans to evacuate Kurdish civilians from Aleppo.“We have intervened to establish a humanitarian corridor between our eastern regions and Aleppo [...] to protect our people from massacres,” reads the statement published on December 2.
But these announcements have done little to reassure Kurdish civilians in Aleppo.
'We don’t know what’s going to happen; we’re plunged into uncertainty'
A resident of Sheikh Maqsoud, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told The Observers he was deeply concerned.
We don’t know what’s going to happen; we’re plunged into uncertainty. We feel alone and abandoned.
I wasn’t in the area when the HTS attacked Assad’s forces in Aleppo, but I was nearby during their assaults on the Kurdish neighbourhood. The HTS used vehicles, shots were fired. There have been two or three attacks in the past few days.
Since Friday, we’ve had almost nothing to defend ourselves. We’ve received some support from the Syrian Democratic Forces, a few soldiers and weapons, but not much else, even though so many of us live here.
I don’t trust the Islamists’ promises not to harm us. They’ve already dismantled the Asayish –the Kurdish police force in the district. After that, they could easily turn violent.
'Are they just doing it opportunistically to expand their territory?'
For Broderick McDonald, a researcher at Oxford University, it is not clear how the HTS group will position itself vis-à-vis the Kurdish population, especially given the group's history.
This is part of HTS's strategy to make itself less confrontational with a whole host of different actors. It puts out statements not only to Kurdish groups but also to the government of Iraq, to the Russian government.
They are basically saying 'our fight is with Assad and as long as you do not align yourself with Assad, we don't have a problem with you.' Now, it's going to be difficult for them (the Kurds) to believe that, given the history of HTS. HTS has a track record of human rights abuses against many different minorities, including Kurds.
It is difficult to see how they will follow through on that. However it's interesting that HTS has tried as much as it can to avoid direct clashes with Kurdish groups. In fact, it's the SNA groups largely which are clashing or negotiating with the Kurds, much more than it is HTS itself.
There are still big questions: can you trust HTS to do this long term, or are they just doing it opportunistically to expand their territory? But by and large, I think they are trying their best to avoid getting into direct clashes with the Kurds and instead focusing their energy on the Assad regime.
As of the afternoon of December 2, videos circulating on social media showed Kurdish forces retreating from Aleppo toward the Kurdish-controlled regions of Raqqa and Manbij.
In response, the SDF commander-in-chief announced plans to evacuate Kurdish civilians from Aleppo.“We have intervened to establish a humanitarian corridor between our eastern regions and Aleppo [...] to protect our people from massacres,” reads the statement published on December 2.
But these announcements have done little to reassure Kurdish civilians in Aleppo.
'We don’t know what’s going to happen; we’re plunged into uncertainty'
A resident of Sheikh Maqsoud, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told The Observers he was deeply concerned.
We don’t know what’s going to happen; we’re plunged into uncertainty. We feel alone and abandoned.
I wasn’t in the area when the HTS attacked Assad’s forces in Aleppo, but I was nearby during their assaults on the Kurdish neighbourhood. The HTS used vehicles, shots were fired. There have been two or three attacks in the past few days.
Since Friday, we’ve had almost nothing to defend ourselves. We’ve received some support from the Syrian Democratic Forces, a few soldiers and weapons, but not much else, even though so many of us live here.
I don’t trust the Islamists’ promises not to harm us. They’ve already dismantled the Asayish –the Kurdish police force in the district. After that, they could easily turn violent.
'Are they just doing it opportunistically to expand their territory?'
For Broderick McDonald, a researcher at Oxford University, it is not clear how the HTS group will position itself vis-à-vis the Kurdish population, especially given the group's history.
This is part of HTS's strategy to make itself less confrontational with a whole host of different actors. It puts out statements not only to Kurdish groups but also to the government of Iraq, to the Russian government.
They are basically saying 'our fight is with Assad and as long as you do not align yourself with Assad, we don't have a problem with you.' Now, it's going to be difficult for them (the Kurds) to believe that, given the history of HTS. HTS has a track record of human rights abuses against many different minorities, including Kurds.
It is difficult to see how they will follow through on that. However it's interesting that HTS has tried as much as it can to avoid direct clashes with Kurdish groups. In fact, it's the SNA groups largely which are clashing or negotiating with the Kurds, much more than it is HTS itself.
There are still big questions: can you trust HTS to do this long term, or are they just doing it opportunistically to expand their territory? But by and large, I think they are trying their best to avoid getting into direct clashes with the Kurds and instead focusing their energy on the Assad regime.
As of the afternoon of December 2, videos circulating on social media showed Kurdish forces retreating from Aleppo toward the Kurdish-controlled regions of Raqqa and Manbij.
This video posted on Twitter on December 2, 2024 shows convoys of Kurdish forces withdrawing from Aleppo towards to the Kurdish-controlled regions of Raqqa and Manbij.
Sporadic clashes were reported later that day, though these accounts could not be independently verified.
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