HINDUTVA WATER WAR
PAKISTAN
35 days’ water left as Khanpur Dam level plummets
Published May 7, 2025
DAWN
View of the dried-up Khanpur Dam. — Dawn
TAXILA: A water crisis looms over the twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad as the water level has decreased in Khanpur Dam and the available water may cater to the needs of its beneficiaries for only 35 days.
Rocks and mounds have become visible in different parts of the reservoir, especially at the main storage site and the spillways, which speaks volume about the impacts of climatic changes and alarming water table reduction. If heavy rainfall does not occur within the next 10 to 15 days, the water level in the dam is expected to fall drastically to almost the dead level.
The authorities said the catchment area of the dam, which included Margalla Hills and Galiyat, had not received enough rain, worsening the situation.
The dam authorities feared that they would have to suspend water supply for irrigation purposes to the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa besides curtailing drinking water supply to Rawalpindi and Islamabad.
Officials say they would have to suspend supply for irrigation purposes besides curtailing drinking water supply to Rawalpindi, Islamabad
They said at present water in the reservoir was available only for about 35 days if there is no rainy spell in its catchment areas.
A Wapda official told Dawn on Tuesday that the water level at the dam was 1,935 above mean sea level (AMSL), which was just 25 feet higher than the dead level of 1,910 AMSL.
He said that due to the low rains in the dam’s catchment areas and persistent dry spell, springs in the catchment areas had dried up. The inflow wasrecorded on Tuesday at only 82 cusecs and the outflow 235 cusecs per day.
He added that 90 cusecs per day was being supplied to Capital Development Authority (CDA) and 6.18 cusecs to other civic bodies and small beneficiaries, including the University of Engineering and Technology Taxila. He said that 48 cusecs per day was also released to the KP irrigation department and 42 cusecs daily to Punjab for irrigation.
He said that due to the persistent situation, authorities had planned to suspend water supply to KP and Punjab for irrigation purposes next week.
On the other hand, Wasa has implemented a “Water Control Plan” to manage the crisis, which includes crackdowns on water theft, penalties for water bill defaulters, and restrictions on non-essential water use. Officials warned that without significant rainfall in the next 10 to 15 days, the water level could fall to critical level, possibly exacerbating the situation.
Wasa sources said that a water rationing plan had been prepared for implementation in the second half of May. Wasa Managing Director Mohammad Saleem Ashraf said the daily water demand in Rawalpindi had reached over 50 million gallons, but the supply stood at just 30 million gallons - creating a significant daily deficit of 20 million gallons.
The dam is situated near Potohar Plateau and the village of Khanpur in KP, about 40km from Islamabad and 15km from Haripur. The dam caters to domestic water supplies in Rawalpindi and Islamabad besides supplying water to the agricultural and industrial areas surrounding the twin cities.
Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2025
TAXILA: A water crisis looms over the twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad as the water level has decreased in Khanpur Dam and the available water may cater to the needs of its beneficiaries for only 35 days.
Rocks and mounds have become visible in different parts of the reservoir, especially at the main storage site and the spillways, which speaks volume about the impacts of climatic changes and alarming water table reduction. If heavy rainfall does not occur within the next 10 to 15 days, the water level in the dam is expected to fall drastically to almost the dead level.
The authorities said the catchment area of the dam, which included Margalla Hills and Galiyat, had not received enough rain, worsening the situation.
The dam authorities feared that they would have to suspend water supply for irrigation purposes to the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa besides curtailing drinking water supply to Rawalpindi and Islamabad.
Officials say they would have to suspend supply for irrigation purposes besides curtailing drinking water supply to Rawalpindi, Islamabad
They said at present water in the reservoir was available only for about 35 days if there is no rainy spell in its catchment areas.
A Wapda official told Dawn on Tuesday that the water level at the dam was 1,935 above mean sea level (AMSL), which was just 25 feet higher than the dead level of 1,910 AMSL.
He said that due to the low rains in the dam’s catchment areas and persistent dry spell, springs in the catchment areas had dried up. The inflow wasrecorded on Tuesday at only 82 cusecs and the outflow 235 cusecs per day.
He added that 90 cusecs per day was being supplied to Capital Development Authority (CDA) and 6.18 cusecs to other civic bodies and small beneficiaries, including the University of Engineering and Technology Taxila. He said that 48 cusecs per day was also released to the KP irrigation department and 42 cusecs daily to Punjab for irrigation.
He said that due to the persistent situation, authorities had planned to suspend water supply to KP and Punjab for irrigation purposes next week.
On the other hand, Wasa has implemented a “Water Control Plan” to manage the crisis, which includes crackdowns on water theft, penalties for water bill defaulters, and restrictions on non-essential water use. Officials warned that without significant rainfall in the next 10 to 15 days, the water level could fall to critical level, possibly exacerbating the situation.
Wasa sources said that a water rationing plan had been prepared for implementation in the second half of May. Wasa Managing Director Mohammad Saleem Ashraf said the daily water demand in Rawalpindi had reached over 50 million gallons, but the supply stood at just 30 million gallons - creating a significant daily deficit of 20 million gallons.
The dam is situated near Potohar Plateau and the village of Khanpur in KP, about 40km from Islamabad and 15km from Haripur. The dam caters to domestic water supplies in Rawalpindi and Islamabad besides supplying water to the agricultural and industrial areas surrounding the twin cities.
Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2025
‘International pressure’ credited for improvement in Chenab flows
Khalid Hasnain
LAHORE: Flows in the River Chenab increased substantially on Tuesday — a day after they slowed to a trickle — after India ostensibly caved to international pressure over its illegal act of stopping river water from flowing to Pakistan.
Following its unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, New Delhi had severely cut flows in the Chenab, which slowed from 34,000 cusecs on Sunday to around 3,000 cusecs on Monday.
The very next day, however, the situation improved, with inflows at Marala recorded at 28,300 cusecs on Tuesday.
“The situation started improving on Tuesday with discharge of water by India from up to downstream. Hope it will improve more in coming days if there is no halt on part of India,” a senior official told Dawn.
According to a report shared by the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, the inflows and outflows in Chenab at Marala were recorded as 28,300 cusecs and 19,100 cusecs respectively.
The inflows from Indus River at Tarbela were gauged as 95,300 cusecs, whereas the outflows were 50,000 cusecs.
The inflow of 37,000 cusecs was recorded at River Kabul at Nowshera, whereas the River Jhelum at Mangla was gauged as having inflows of 43,500 cusecs and outflows of 32,000 cusecs.
The water level in Tarbela dam, which has a minimum water operating level of 1,402 feet and a maximum conservation capacity of 1,550 feet, is currently at 1,444.30 feet. The live storage in the dam was recorded as 0.902 MAF on Tuesday.
With a current water level of 1,137 feet, Mangla dam recorded 1.235 MAF live storage. The minimum operating level of the dam is 1,050 feet, whereas the maximum conservation capacity is 1,242 feet.
Meanwhile, the Chashma reservoir recorded a live storage of 0.208 MAF with a current water level of 646.90 feet. The minimum operating level of the lake is 638.15 feet whereas its maximum conservation level is 649 feet.
International pressure
According to a senior official, who did not wish to be named, the reason behind the release of water a day after India had halting flows in the Chenab seemed to be pressure exerted from international quarters.
“All of India’s hydroelectric projects in the Chenab basin are run-of-the-river, which have reservoirs meant for power generation. They cannot hold waters in such reservoirs for more than 36 hours. But releasing water the very next day shows that they have done this after being pressed internationally,” the official explained. “I think India will not repeat this act again,” he hoped.
The official further said the related government departments in Pakistan are also monitoring the rivers’ flows very closely these days.
Talking to Dawn, former Pakistan’s Indus Waters Commissioner Syed Jamat Ali Shah termed the halting of flows in Chenab as a breach of the treaty, as well as a violation of the opinion of the neutral expert on Baglihar Dam.
“The neutral expert, in his decision, had termed maintenance of Baglihar dam necessary keeping in view the massive deposition of sand coming along with river water into the dam meant for power generation and not for water storage. However, according to verdict, the sand can only be flushed out when the water flows at Baglihar are recorded at 70,000 cusecs, which usually happens in the monsoon season only,” he explained.
Mr Shah said that such large quantities of water were not available, India apparently first flushed out the silt by opening spillways, and then closed them to start filling the dam.
Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2025
Khalid Hasnain
Published May 7, 2025
DAWN
• Inflows at Marala rise to 28,300 cusecs
• Inflows at Marala rise to 28,300 cusecs
• Ex-Indus water commissioner says Delhi’s actions violate IWT, independent expert’s decision on Baglihar
LAHORE: Flows in the River Chenab increased substantially on Tuesday — a day after they slowed to a trickle — after India ostensibly caved to international pressure over its illegal act of stopping river water from flowing to Pakistan.
Following its unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, New Delhi had severely cut flows in the Chenab, which slowed from 34,000 cusecs on Sunday to around 3,000 cusecs on Monday.
The very next day, however, the situation improved, with inflows at Marala recorded at 28,300 cusecs on Tuesday.
“The situation started improving on Tuesday with discharge of water by India from up to downstream. Hope it will improve more in coming days if there is no halt on part of India,” a senior official told Dawn.
According to a report shared by the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, the inflows and outflows in Chenab at Marala were recorded as 28,300 cusecs and 19,100 cusecs respectively.
The inflows from Indus River at Tarbela were gauged as 95,300 cusecs, whereas the outflows were 50,000 cusecs.
The inflow of 37,000 cusecs was recorded at River Kabul at Nowshera, whereas the River Jhelum at Mangla was gauged as having inflows of 43,500 cusecs and outflows of 32,000 cusecs.
The water level in Tarbela dam, which has a minimum water operating level of 1,402 feet and a maximum conservation capacity of 1,550 feet, is currently at 1,444.30 feet. The live storage in the dam was recorded as 0.902 MAF on Tuesday.
With a current water level of 1,137 feet, Mangla dam recorded 1.235 MAF live storage. The minimum operating level of the dam is 1,050 feet, whereas the maximum conservation capacity is 1,242 feet.
Meanwhile, the Chashma reservoir recorded a live storage of 0.208 MAF with a current water level of 646.90 feet. The minimum operating level of the lake is 638.15 feet whereas its maximum conservation level is 649 feet.
International pressure
According to a senior official, who did not wish to be named, the reason behind the release of water a day after India had halting flows in the Chenab seemed to be pressure exerted from international quarters.
“All of India’s hydroelectric projects in the Chenab basin are run-of-the-river, which have reservoirs meant for power generation. They cannot hold waters in such reservoirs for more than 36 hours. But releasing water the very next day shows that they have done this after being pressed internationally,” the official explained. “I think India will not repeat this act again,” he hoped.
The official further said the related government departments in Pakistan are also monitoring the rivers’ flows very closely these days.
Talking to Dawn, former Pakistan’s Indus Waters Commissioner Syed Jamat Ali Shah termed the halting of flows in Chenab as a breach of the treaty, as well as a violation of the opinion of the neutral expert on Baglihar Dam.
“The neutral expert, in his decision, had termed maintenance of Baglihar dam necessary keeping in view the massive deposition of sand coming along with river water into the dam meant for power generation and not for water storage. However, according to verdict, the sand can only be flushed out when the water flows at Baglihar are recorded at 70,000 cusecs, which usually happens in the monsoon season only,” he explained.
Mr Shah said that such large quantities of water were not available, India apparently first flushed out the silt by opening spillways, and then closed them to start filling the dam.
Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2025
Khalid Hasnain | Khaleeq Kiani
Published May 6, 2025
DAWN
A VIEW of the River Chenab at Zero Point, near Sialkot, where it enters Pakistan. On Monday, the inflow of water reduced by over 91 per cent compared to the previous day, after India started filling three of its reservoirs on the waterway.—Dawn
• Pakistan’s waters being used to fill up three Indian reservoirs with total capacity of 1.2MAF; official says sudden discharge could create a ‘flood-like’ situation
• Decreased inflows at Marala will result in more water shortage for crops, Irsa warns
• Reuters report claims New Delhi plans to boost reservoir holding capacity at two hydroelectric projects
NEARLY a week after its unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, India on Monday virtually stopped water discharges from the Chenab River into Pakistan without prior notice, reducing flows in the river manifold.
Water flows in the Chenab, recorded at the Marala headworks, decreased from up to 35,000 cusecs on Sunday to about 3,100 cusecs on Monday morning.
“They have almost blocked the River Chenab flows to downstream (Pakistan) after they (Indian authorities) took the decision on Sunday,” a senior official of the Punjab irrigation department confirmed on Monday.
“Currently, they are using our water to fill up their dams/hydropower projects in the Chenab basin. They cannot do this since it is a grave violation of the Indus Water Treaty…,” the official deplored.
According to a document seen by Dawn, India has three major hydropower projects in the Chenab Basin. The first is the 1,000MW Pakal Dul Dam, having an 88,000 acre-feet reservoir storage capacity and a 10km head race tunnel to divert water south.
The second is the Baglihar Dam (88km from Pakal Dul upstream). This is a 900MW power generation plant, having a 321,002 acre-feet reservoir storage along with a spillway capacity of 582,692 cusecs.
The third one is Salal Dam, located 78km from Baglihar, having an installed power generation capacity of 690MW along with 228,000 acre-feet reservoir storage and spillway capacity of 792,012 cusecs.
“From Salal Dam, Marala Barrage (in Pakistan) is situated 76km away. The reason behind the massive reduction in the flows is the filling of these dams, which have a total storage capacity of over 1.2 million acre-feet. And if they keep filling their dams and avert discharging, they (India) may leave us without water for four to five days more,” the official warned.
To a question, he said that if India suddenly started discharging water downstream, there could be a flood-like situation in Chenab, putting the local population at risk.
To another question, he said Marala’s capacity was 1.1 million cusecs, whereas the total storage capacity of India’s dams in the Chenab basin was over 1.3 million acre-feet. “However, they don’t have control over the water inflows to Pakistan in the river from the Jammu-Tavi and Munawar-Tavi distributaries,” the official added.
According to the official, Chenab is very important for Pakistan’s irrigation system, as its canals, including the UCC and BRB canals, irrigate a vast tract of agricultural land in Punjab.
According to the daily water report issued by the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), the water inflows in Chenab at Marala were recorded at 5,300 cusecs, whereas there were zero outflows on Monday.
The inflows and outflows in the river at Marala on Sunday were 34,600 and 25,400 cusecs, respectively.
Shortage for Kharif crops
Separately, a meeting of the advisory committee of the Indus River System Authority also expressed concerns over the unilateral Indian decision that would cause additional shortages to Kharif crops, already facing an estimated 21pc shortfall.
“…sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India would result in more shortages in early Kharif season,” said a statement issued by Irsa. The water regulator declared an overall shortage of 21pc for the remaining early Kharif season in case supplies in River Chenab remained normal. However, the situation would be monitored on a daily basis and if the decrease continues, the shortages would be revisited accordingly, Irsa said, adding the late Kharif shortages were expected to be 7pc.
An official told Dawn that Chenab flowed at 35,600 cusecs on Sunday at Marala headwork, but dropped to 3,177 cusecs on Monday morning, showing a reduction of almost 11 times. He said three storages — Baglihar, Dulhasti and Salal — on Chenab in Kashmir had the capacity to stop river flows.
Sindh’s concerns
Sindh representatives recorded their objections over the operationalisation of Chashma-Jhelum Link Canal by Punjab, but was explained that Punjab was using its own share. Sindh, nevertheless, insisted that the opening of the emergency link canal affected Sindh’s allocated share downstream.
Sindh was also told that its share of 76,000 cusecs was being released, which would reach its canal command areas in five to six days. Punjab’s discharges were reduced from 84,000 cusecs to 65,000 cusecs at its request.
The Irsa meeting worked out Punjab’s water availability estimate at 31.35 million acre feet (MAF) for the entire Kharif season, followed by Sindh’s 28.85MAF. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan would get 0.82MAF and 2.86MAF, respectively, during the season.
Work on Indian dams
Separately, the Reuters news agency reported that India has begun work to boost reservoir holding capacity at two hydroelectric projects.
A “reservoir flushing” process to remove sediment began on Thursday, carried out by India’s biggest hydropower company and authorities in the occupied Kashmir, it reported.
The process initially results in sediment-laden waters being released downstream from the reservoirs, potentially causing sudden inundation, followed by a reduced flow of water as the reservoirs are refilled, one of the unnamed sources cited by Reuters said.
The report said the work may not immediately threaten supply to Pakistan, which depends on rivers flowing through India for much of its irrigation and hydropower, but it could eventually be affected if other dams launch similar efforts. There are more than half a dozen such projects in the region.
“India did not inform Pakistan about the work at the Salal and Baglihar projects, which is being done for the first time since they were built in 1987 and 2008/09, respectively, as the treaty had blocked such work,” Reuters said, quoting sources.
The report said the Indian authorities had also asked officials concerned to open the adjustable gates for cleaning, which they did from May 1. The effort was aimed at freeing dam operations from any restrictions, it added.
Published in Dawn, May 6th, 2025
• Pakistan’s waters being used to fill up three Indian reservoirs with total capacity of 1.2MAF; official says sudden discharge could create a ‘flood-like’ situation
• Decreased inflows at Marala will result in more water shortage for crops, Irsa warns
• Reuters report claims New Delhi plans to boost reservoir holding capacity at two hydroelectric projects
NEARLY a week after its unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, India on Monday virtually stopped water discharges from the Chenab River into Pakistan without prior notice, reducing flows in the river manifold.
Water flows in the Chenab, recorded at the Marala headworks, decreased from up to 35,000 cusecs on Sunday to about 3,100 cusecs on Monday morning.
“They have almost blocked the River Chenab flows to downstream (Pakistan) after they (Indian authorities) took the decision on Sunday,” a senior official of the Punjab irrigation department confirmed on Monday.
“Currently, they are using our water to fill up their dams/hydropower projects in the Chenab basin. They cannot do this since it is a grave violation of the Indus Water Treaty…,” the official deplored.
According to a document seen by Dawn, India has three major hydropower projects in the Chenab Basin. The first is the 1,000MW Pakal Dul Dam, having an 88,000 acre-feet reservoir storage capacity and a 10km head race tunnel to divert water south.
The second is the Baglihar Dam (88km from Pakal Dul upstream). This is a 900MW power generation plant, having a 321,002 acre-feet reservoir storage along with a spillway capacity of 582,692 cusecs.
The third one is Salal Dam, located 78km from Baglihar, having an installed power generation capacity of 690MW along with 228,000 acre-feet reservoir storage and spillway capacity of 792,012 cusecs.
“From Salal Dam, Marala Barrage (in Pakistan) is situated 76km away. The reason behind the massive reduction in the flows is the filling of these dams, which have a total storage capacity of over 1.2 million acre-feet. And if they keep filling their dams and avert discharging, they (India) may leave us without water for four to five days more,” the official warned.
To a question, he said that if India suddenly started discharging water downstream, there could be a flood-like situation in Chenab, putting the local population at risk.
To another question, he said Marala’s capacity was 1.1 million cusecs, whereas the total storage capacity of India’s dams in the Chenab basin was over 1.3 million acre-feet. “However, they don’t have control over the water inflows to Pakistan in the river from the Jammu-Tavi and Munawar-Tavi distributaries,” the official added.
According to the official, Chenab is very important for Pakistan’s irrigation system, as its canals, including the UCC and BRB canals, irrigate a vast tract of agricultural land in Punjab.
According to the daily water report issued by the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), the water inflows in Chenab at Marala were recorded at 5,300 cusecs, whereas there were zero outflows on Monday.
The inflows and outflows in the river at Marala on Sunday were 34,600 and 25,400 cusecs, respectively.
Shortage for Kharif crops
Separately, a meeting of the advisory committee of the Indus River System Authority also expressed concerns over the unilateral Indian decision that would cause additional shortages to Kharif crops, already facing an estimated 21pc shortfall.
“…sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India would result in more shortages in early Kharif season,” said a statement issued by Irsa. The water regulator declared an overall shortage of 21pc for the remaining early Kharif season in case supplies in River Chenab remained normal. However, the situation would be monitored on a daily basis and if the decrease continues, the shortages would be revisited accordingly, Irsa said, adding the late Kharif shortages were expected to be 7pc.
An official told Dawn that Chenab flowed at 35,600 cusecs on Sunday at Marala headwork, but dropped to 3,177 cusecs on Monday morning, showing a reduction of almost 11 times. He said three storages — Baglihar, Dulhasti and Salal — on Chenab in Kashmir had the capacity to stop river flows.
Sindh’s concerns
Sindh representatives recorded their objections over the operationalisation of Chashma-Jhelum Link Canal by Punjab, but was explained that Punjab was using its own share. Sindh, nevertheless, insisted that the opening of the emergency link canal affected Sindh’s allocated share downstream.
Sindh was also told that its share of 76,000 cusecs was being released, which would reach its canal command areas in five to six days. Punjab’s discharges were reduced from 84,000 cusecs to 65,000 cusecs at its request.
The Irsa meeting worked out Punjab’s water availability estimate at 31.35 million acre feet (MAF) for the entire Kharif season, followed by Sindh’s 28.85MAF. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan would get 0.82MAF and 2.86MAF, respectively, during the season.
Work on Indian dams
Separately, the Reuters news agency reported that India has begun work to boost reservoir holding capacity at two hydroelectric projects.
A “reservoir flushing” process to remove sediment began on Thursday, carried out by India’s biggest hydropower company and authorities in the occupied Kashmir, it reported.
The process initially results in sediment-laden waters being released downstream from the reservoirs, potentially causing sudden inundation, followed by a reduced flow of water as the reservoirs are refilled, one of the unnamed sources cited by Reuters said.
The report said the work may not immediately threaten supply to Pakistan, which depends on rivers flowing through India for much of its irrigation and hydropower, but it could eventually be affected if other dams launch similar efforts. There are more than half a dozen such projects in the region.
“India did not inform Pakistan about the work at the Salal and Baglihar projects, which is being done for the first time since they were built in 1987 and 2008/09, respectively, as the treaty had blocked such work,” Reuters said, quoting sources.
The report said the Indian authorities had also asked officials concerned to open the adjustable gates for cleaning, which they did from May 1. The effort was aimed at freeing dam operations from any restrictions, it added.
Published in Dawn, May 6th, 2025
Fistful of water
Published April 30, 2025
DAWN
JAWAHARLAL Nehru, the first post-independence prime minister of India, while dilating on statecraft, advised ‘muthi ko kasna nahin hai’ (don’t hold the fist tight). He may have been referring to the merits of a soft approach in dealing with myriad internal challenges, including the hundreds of princely states and their status vis-à-vis the centre. How clenched or loose Sardar Patel’s fist was in dealing with these matters is now part of history.
On our side, prime minister Liaquat Ali Khan and, later on, military dictator Pervez Musharraf both employed the punch as a symbol of state power, aimed externally on the part of the former and at internal opponents by the latter.
While we were still trying to figure out the contours of the ‘hard state’ that the establishment asserted Pakistan needs to become in the aftermath of the deplorable attack on the Jaffar Express in Balochistan in March, and while the new canals fiasco was brewing among the upper and lower riparian provinces, the Pahalgam atrocity happened in Indian-occupied Kashmir. Both sides wasted no time accusing each other of orchestrating the terrorist attacks.
In its first salvo of retaliatory actions, India announced holding the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance. “We will pursue the perpetrators to the ends of the earth,” vowed Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The ‘ghus kar marengay’ refrain was dug up by the media a few days later.
We need hydropower experts and legal wizards in international law.
Late to the public outrage against the proposed six canals on the Indus river to irrigate the Cholistan desert in south Punjab, the PPP, the ruling party in Sindh, tried to overcompensate with bravado. Party chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, usually displaying sangfroid, broke character to warn the Indian PM, “either our water or your blood will flow in the Indus”. He was addressing a public gathering near the banks of the river in Sukkur as part of his party’s effort to wrest the canals issue from the smaller parties and rights groups.
The complex interplay between externalities and internal compulsions of statecraft is not unique to Pakistan and India. That a country’s foreign policy is contingent upon its domestic choices and vice versa is well known. The rhetoric in the service of these policies and interests should also be seen in this perspective. Mr Bhutto-Zardari’s warning to Mr Modi aims to assuage his party’s domestic dilemma. President Asif Zardari’s reported assent to the canals project — thought to be the brainchild of the powers that be and the larger province of Punjab — had caused resentment even among the loyal cadres of the PPP. One way to keep on the right side of the state powers while appeasing the local vote bank is to take a hard line against India.
The IWT, which was signed between the two countries in 1960 to apportion the waters of the western and eastern rivers, was brokered by the World Bank. It is an extremely complex and technical treaty. From time to time, demands for renegotiating the IWT have emanated from within Pakistan.
Saner elements cautioned against it because, back in the 1960s, India and Pakistan were treated as equals by the facilitators of the treaty. In succeeding decades, the international standing of the two countries changed; compare their forex reserves, trade volumes, and levels of FDI.
Meanwhile, the World Bank’s role as ‘guarantor’ of the IWT has always been misunderstood. It was always meant to reduce over time. To renegotiate the treaty, we need hydrology and hy-
dropower experts. We stopped producing them decades ago. We also need legal wizards in international law. The lot we have has been losing us cases in international courts; Reko Diq, Turkish power producer Karkey, and a consortium of IPPs’ claims against us, to cite a few. This downward slide is, unfortunately, not limited to us: the World Bank does not appear to have a single legal expert with a complete grasp of the treaty. Ask the lender for a copy of a treaty, and in all likelihood, it will draw a blank.
Returning to the analogy of the fist, in the context of water or any fluid situation, leave it open, making it into an ‘oak’, an untranslatable Urdu word for the hollow of an upward-turned palm to drink, and offer it, and it can be of help even if for a short while. Tighten the fist and one is not even left with chullu bhar pani (a sip or a splash’s worth of water carried in the palm of the hand).
The writer is a poet. His latest publication is a collection of satire essays titled Rindana.
shahzadsharjeel1@gmail.com
Published in Dawn, April 30th, 2025
JAWAHARLAL Nehru, the first post-independence prime minister of India, while dilating on statecraft, advised ‘muthi ko kasna nahin hai’ (don’t hold the fist tight). He may have been referring to the merits of a soft approach in dealing with myriad internal challenges, including the hundreds of princely states and their status vis-à-vis the centre. How clenched or loose Sardar Patel’s fist was in dealing with these matters is now part of history.
On our side, prime minister Liaquat Ali Khan and, later on, military dictator Pervez Musharraf both employed the punch as a symbol of state power, aimed externally on the part of the former and at internal opponents by the latter.
While we were still trying to figure out the contours of the ‘hard state’ that the establishment asserted Pakistan needs to become in the aftermath of the deplorable attack on the Jaffar Express in Balochistan in March, and while the new canals fiasco was brewing among the upper and lower riparian provinces, the Pahalgam atrocity happened in Indian-occupied Kashmir. Both sides wasted no time accusing each other of orchestrating the terrorist attacks.
In its first salvo of retaliatory actions, India announced holding the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance. “We will pursue the perpetrators to the ends of the earth,” vowed Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The ‘ghus kar marengay’ refrain was dug up by the media a few days later.
We need hydropower experts and legal wizards in international law.
Late to the public outrage against the proposed six canals on the Indus river to irrigate the Cholistan desert in south Punjab, the PPP, the ruling party in Sindh, tried to overcompensate with bravado. Party chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, usually displaying sangfroid, broke character to warn the Indian PM, “either our water or your blood will flow in the Indus”. He was addressing a public gathering near the banks of the river in Sukkur as part of his party’s effort to wrest the canals issue from the smaller parties and rights groups.
The complex interplay between externalities and internal compulsions of statecraft is not unique to Pakistan and India. That a country’s foreign policy is contingent upon its domestic choices and vice versa is well known. The rhetoric in the service of these policies and interests should also be seen in this perspective. Mr Bhutto-Zardari’s warning to Mr Modi aims to assuage his party’s domestic dilemma. President Asif Zardari’s reported assent to the canals project — thought to be the brainchild of the powers that be and the larger province of Punjab — had caused resentment even among the loyal cadres of the PPP. One way to keep on the right side of the state powers while appeasing the local vote bank is to take a hard line against India.
The IWT, which was signed between the two countries in 1960 to apportion the waters of the western and eastern rivers, was brokered by the World Bank. It is an extremely complex and technical treaty. From time to time, demands for renegotiating the IWT have emanated from within Pakistan.
Saner elements cautioned against it because, back in the 1960s, India and Pakistan were treated as equals by the facilitators of the treaty. In succeeding decades, the international standing of the two countries changed; compare their forex reserves, trade volumes, and levels of FDI.
Meanwhile, the World Bank’s role as ‘guarantor’ of the IWT has always been misunderstood. It was always meant to reduce over time. To renegotiate the treaty, we need hydrology and hy-
dropower experts. We stopped producing them decades ago. We also need legal wizards in international law. The lot we have has been losing us cases in international courts; Reko Diq, Turkish power producer Karkey, and a consortium of IPPs’ claims against us, to cite a few. This downward slide is, unfortunately, not limited to us: the World Bank does not appear to have a single legal expert with a complete grasp of the treaty. Ask the lender for a copy of a treaty, and in all likelihood, it will draw a blank.
Returning to the analogy of the fist, in the context of water or any fluid situation, leave it open, making it into an ‘oak’, an untranslatable Urdu word for the hollow of an upward-turned palm to drink, and offer it, and it can be of help even if for a short while. Tighten the fist and one is not even left with chullu bhar pani (a sip or a splash’s worth of water carried in the palm of the hand).
The writer is a poet. His latest publication is a collection of satire essays titled Rindana.
shahzadsharjeel1@gmail.com
Published in Dawn, April 30th, 2025
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