‘Escalation risks are real’: Analysts, diplomats react to latest Pakistan-India clashes
Analysts and diplomats on Wednesday raised concerns over “increased risks of escalation” after India launched late-night airstrikes at six sites in Pakistan’s Punjab and Azad Jammu and Kashmir.
The attack resulted in 26 civilian casualties and over 40 injuries. In retaliation, Islamabad took down five Indian jets. According to military spokesperson Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, several Indian checkposts were destroyed in response. Separately, the government said Pakistan did not target any civilians in India in its retaliatory actions.
Amid the ongoing developments, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called a meeting of the country’s apex security body and is expected to address the nation afterwards.
Here is what journalists and analysts are saying about the recent updates and what they are predicting for the future.
Mazhar Abbas, senior analyst
“The day, May 7, is a hopeful one for Pakistan because we defeated India not only on the battlefield but also on the diplomatic front,” he said on Geo TV.
“India ran a film, we ran a trailer, if they want to move forward with war, we are ready,” he stated. Referring to last month’s Pahalgam attack, the journalist said India was yet to produce evidence regarding Pakistan’s involvement in it.
“Without doing that, they tried to go on another adventure. Pakistan has defeated them on three fronts: war, media, and diplomacy. If we keep going forward with this coordinated effort, we will be successful,” Abbas said.
Michael Kugelman, foreign policy expert
“India’s strike on Pakistan is of much greater scale than the one in 2019. Pakistan’s response, which, according to many reports, included downing several Indian jets, has also exceeded the scale of 2019,” he said in a post on X.
“They’re already higher up the escalatory ladder than any time in the ’19 crisis,” Kugelman said.
Separately, speaking to the Associated Press, he said: “These two strong militaries that, even without nuclear weapons as a deterrent, are not afraid to deploy … conventional military force against each other.”
“Escalation risks are real. And they could well increase, and quickly,” he warned.
Jibran Nasir, activist and lawyer
“India, acting like a rogue state, has violated multiple international humanitarian laws by targeting civilians and mosques,” Nasir said in a post on X. “Without providing any evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in Pahalgam, the Modi government has resorted to war crimes violating Provisions of the Geneva Convention IV 1949, Geneva Protocol 1977 Article 51-53, Hague Convention IV 1907 Article 25 & 27, Hague Convention 1954, Rome Statue of the ICC 1998 Article 8 and Customary IHL as codified by ICRC.”
He pointed out that Pakistan’s response to India, which included striking down jets and bombing military sites, was “measured” and asserted its right to self-defence.
“The Indian Democracy led by Hindutva on steroids wants to celebrate bombing of civilians, killing and maiming children and make mass rape threats to women online. Naming the operation Sindoor only underpins the toxicity, chauvinism and racism of the Indian regime towards Muslims both at home and vis-à-vis its neighbouring countries,” Nasir said.
“Hope no more blood is shed and the global community steps in and forces sense into India and holds it accountable for the war crimes it committed tonight. India must answer and pay the price for every single loss of civilian life and every house of worship it targeted.
“Till then, Pakistan shall defend itself by whatever means possible and every Pakistani stands united for its sovereignty and integrity,” he added.
Hina Rabbani Khar, diplomat
In a series of posts on X, Khar, who previously served as the state minister for foreign affairs, said India’s multiple attacks inside Pakistan showed that “India feels it has impunity to do what it will without any consideration to international law”.
“Pakistan has not only the right but also the capacity to respond to this belligerent, rogue neighbour as it is doing now,” she stated.
Hamid Mir, senior journalist
“It seems that [Indian prime minister] Modi’s strategy has backfired,” he said on the channel. “India claims it attacked terrorist sites in Pakistan, but there are videos everywhere showing they it was the civilians who were attacked.”
“The entire world agrees; Pakistan did not start this. India targeted Pakistan’s civilians, and Pakistan attacked their military targets. Morally, Pakistan is in a better situation,” he highlighted.
Mir was also of the opinion that Islamabad should suspend the Simla Agreement as a tit-for-tat response to India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty after the Pahalgam incident.
Published May 7, 2025
Analysts and diplomats on Wednesday raised concerns over “increased risks of escalation” after India launched late-night airstrikes at six sites in Pakistan’s Punjab and Azad Jammu and Kashmir.
The attack resulted in 26 civilian casualties and over 40 injuries. In retaliation, Islamabad took down five Indian jets. According to military spokesperson Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, several Indian checkposts were destroyed in response. Separately, the government said Pakistan did not target any civilians in India in its retaliatory actions.
Amid the ongoing developments, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called a meeting of the country’s apex security body and is expected to address the nation afterwards.
Here is what journalists and analysts are saying about the recent updates and what they are predicting for the future.
Mazhar Abbas, senior analyst
“The day, May 7, is a hopeful one for Pakistan because we defeated India not only on the battlefield but also on the diplomatic front,” he said on Geo TV.
“India ran a film, we ran a trailer, if they want to move forward with war, we are ready,” he stated. Referring to last month’s Pahalgam attack, the journalist said India was yet to produce evidence regarding Pakistan’s involvement in it.
“Without doing that, they tried to go on another adventure. Pakistan has defeated them on three fronts: war, media, and diplomacy. If we keep going forward with this coordinated effort, we will be successful,” Abbas said.
Michael Kugelman, foreign policy expert
“India’s strike on Pakistan is of much greater scale than the one in 2019. Pakistan’s response, which, according to many reports, included downing several Indian jets, has also exceeded the scale of 2019,” he said in a post on X.
“They’re already higher up the escalatory ladder than any time in the ’19 crisis,” Kugelman said.
Separately, speaking to the Associated Press, he said: “These two strong militaries that, even without nuclear weapons as a deterrent, are not afraid to deploy … conventional military force against each other.”
“Escalation risks are real. And they could well increase, and quickly,” he warned.
Jibran Nasir, activist and lawyer
“India, acting like a rogue state, has violated multiple international humanitarian laws by targeting civilians and mosques,” Nasir said in a post on X. “Without providing any evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in Pahalgam, the Modi government has resorted to war crimes violating Provisions of the Geneva Convention IV 1949, Geneva Protocol 1977 Article 51-53, Hague Convention IV 1907 Article 25 & 27, Hague Convention 1954, Rome Statue of the ICC 1998 Article 8 and Customary IHL as codified by ICRC.”
He pointed out that Pakistan’s response to India, which included striking down jets and bombing military sites, was “measured” and asserted its right to self-defence.
“The Indian Democracy led by Hindutva on steroids wants to celebrate bombing of civilians, killing and maiming children and make mass rape threats to women online. Naming the operation Sindoor only underpins the toxicity, chauvinism and racism of the Indian regime towards Muslims both at home and vis-à-vis its neighbouring countries,” Nasir said.
“Hope no more blood is shed and the global community steps in and forces sense into India and holds it accountable for the war crimes it committed tonight. India must answer and pay the price for every single loss of civilian life and every house of worship it targeted.
“Till then, Pakistan shall defend itself by whatever means possible and every Pakistani stands united for its sovereignty and integrity,” he added.
Hina Rabbani Khar, diplomat
In a series of posts on X, Khar, who previously served as the state minister for foreign affairs, said India’s multiple attacks inside Pakistan showed that “India feels it has impunity to do what it will without any consideration to international law”.
“Pakistan has not only the right but also the capacity to respond to this belligerent, rogue neighbour as it is doing now,” she stated.
Hamid Mir, senior journalist
“It seems that [Indian prime minister] Modi’s strategy has backfired,” he said on the channel. “India claims it attacked terrorist sites in Pakistan, but there are videos everywhere showing they it was the civilians who were attacked.”
“The entire world agrees; Pakistan did not start this. India targeted Pakistan’s civilians, and Pakistan attacked their military targets. Morally, Pakistan is in a better situation,” he highlighted.
Mir was also of the opinion that Islamabad should suspend the Simla Agreement as a tit-for-tat response to India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty after the Pahalgam incident.
Global community reacts to Indian strikes in Pakistan
Reuters | AFP
Published May 7, 2025
India said it attacked Pakistan early on Wednesday following a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir last month. Pakistan reported eight deaths and said it had responded to the Indian strikes.
This is what global leaders have said about the latest hostilities between the nuclear-armed neighbours:
Chinese foreign ministry
“India and Pakistan are neighbours that cannot be moved apart, and they are also China’s neighbours,” a foreign ministry spokesperson said in a statement.
“We call on both India and Pakistan to prioritise peace and stability, remain calm and restrained and avoid taking actions that further complicate the situation,” the spokesperson added.
Beijing also offered to play a mediating role in reducing tensions.
“We are willing to work together with the international community and continue to play a constructive role in easing the current tensions,” foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said.
UK Trade Secretary Jonathon Reynolds
The UK is ready to support both India and Pakistan to de-escalate tensions, Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said.
“Our message would be that we are a friend, [and] a partner to both countries. We stand ready to support both countries. Both have a huge interest in regional stability, in dialogue, in de-escalation and anything we can do to support that, we are here and willing to do,” he told BBC radio.
Russian foreign ministry
Russia’s foreign ministry in a statement said it was “deeply concerned by the escalation of military confrontation,” and called on the parties to “exercise restraint to prevent further deterioration.”
The foreign ministry hoped the tensions could be “resolved through peaceful, diplomatic means.”
Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi
“In regard to the terrorist act that occurred in Kashmir on April 22, our country firmly condemns such acts of terrorism. Furthermore, we express strong concern that this situation may lead to further retaliatory exchanges and escalate into a full-scale military conflict. For the peace and stability of South Asia, we strongly urge both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and stabilise the situation through dialogue.”
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot
France also called on India and Pakistan to show restraint.
“We understand India’s desire to protect itself against the scourge of terrorism, but we obviously call on both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint to avoid escalation and, of course, to protect civilians,” Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, said in an interview on TF1 television.
“I don’t think anyone has an interest in a lasting confrontation between India and Pakistan,” he said, adding that he would be speaking with his counterparts in India and Pakistan.
Earlier today, US President Donald Trump expressed disappointment over the incident, calling it a “shame”, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hoped for engagement towards a peaceful resolution. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged both countries to exercise “maximum military restraint”.
In pictures: Aftermath of India’s late-night strikes in Pakistan
People gather around wreckage in the aftermath of late-night strikes launched by India.
People gather around wreckage in the aftermath of late-night strikes launched by India.
Published May 7, 2025
The Pakistani military has brought down five Indian jets in retaliation for late-night strikes launched by its neighbouring country at six sites, including in Punjab’s Sialkot and Bahawalpur, as well as Azad Jammu and Kashmir.
Soon after the reports of military confrontation emerged, the Inter-Services Public Relations confirmed the strikes, saying that India had carried out the attacks from within its airspace. The military spokesperson provided an updated damage assessment of the scenario earlier today, reporting the death of 26 civilians and injuries to 46 others.
The Pakistani military has brought down five Indian jets in retaliation for late-night strikes launched by its neighbouring country at six sites, including in Punjab’s Sialkot and Bahawalpur, as well as Azad Jammu and Kashmir.
Soon after the reports of military confrontation emerged, the Inter-Services Public Relations confirmed the strikes, saying that India had carried out the attacks from within its airspace. The military spokesperson provided an updated damage assessment of the scenario earlier today, reporting the death of 26 civilians and injuries to 46 others.
A damaged portion of Bilal Mosque is seen after it was hit by an Indian strike in Muzaffarabad on May 7. — Reuters
People look at the damaged building of the Government Health and Educational complex after Indian strikes in Muridke on May 7. — AFP
Security personnel walk on a road near the site of a damaged building of the Government Health and Educational complex after Indian strikes in Muridke on May 7. — AFP
A damaged building of the Government Health and Educational complex is seen after Indian strikes in Muridke on May 7. — AFP
Passengers wait outside at Jinnah International airport after all domestic and international flights were cancelled in Karachi on May 7. — AFP
Passengers wait at Jinnah International airport after all domestic and international flights were cancelled in Karachi on May 7. — AFP
Passengers wait outside at Jinnah International airport after all domestic and international flights were cancelled in Karachi on May 7. — AFP
A media person films Bilal Mosque after it was hit by an Indian strike in Muzaffarabad on May 7. — Reuters
Soldiers cordon off a road after Indian strikes at Ahmedpur Sharqia, some seven kilometres from Bahawalpur on May 7. — AFP
Security force personnel stand guard in front of Bilal Mosque after it was hit by an Indian strike in Muzaffarabad, on May 7. — Reuters
Security personnel cordon-off a street near the site of a strike in Muzaffarabad, on May 7. — AFP
Students in Hyderabad protest against Indian attacks, May 7. — Photo by Umair Ali Rajput
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