The thing Calgary doesn’t want to talk about is the thing Calgary needs to talk about
ByJennifer Friesen
DIGITAL JOURNAL
PublishedApril 10, 2026
Brad Parry, president and CEO of Calgary Economic Development (left), and Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas speak at CED’s Report to the Community event on Wednesday, April 8, 2026. - Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital Journal
At a celebration of Calgary’s economic momentum, the mayor got up and warned the room that the province stands a risk of blowing it.
Not because of tariffs, and not because of the CUSMA review or the unpredictability of another Trump administration. But because Alberta separatism is back as a serious political conversation, and it’s costing the province investment it can’t afford to lose.
Mayor Jeromy Farkas pointed to Quebec.
In the decades following Quebec’s 1976 separatist government election, referendums drove corporate headquarters from Montreal to Toronto, sovereign debt paid a measurable premium for decades, and the economic aftershocks outlasted the loudest voices by years.
Farkas told the 1,500 people at Calgary Economic Development’s (CED) Report to the Community that the separation rhetoric, regardless of whether it goes anywhere, already has a price tag.
Then he asked the attendees to go argue against it with their networks.
Given how strong the numbers are, it was an unexpected thing to say at what is essentially a civic pep rally.
At the event on Wednesday, CED president and CEO Brad Parry reported that the organization supported more than $1 billion in investment and nearly 8,000 jobs across the Calgary region in 2025. Trade programming enabled $60 million in international trade revenue through 45 deals, the highest annual total on record.
CED perceptions research found that 73% of Canadian and U.S. business decision-makers would consider moving to Calgary, up from 54% the year before.
CBRE’s 2025 Scoring Tech Talent report adds independent weight to that, confirming Calgary as the fastest-growing tech talent market in North America two years running, with 61% job growth between 2021 and 2024. That number comes from a real estate services firm with no particular reason to flatter anyone.
Two things are working against all of it. One arrived from Washington, but it looks like the second call is coming from inside the house.
Calgary spent a decade building an innovation economy — the thing that was supposed to make Alberta’s story bigger than oil and gas. Now that economy, and not just the energy sector, is at risk of getting caught in the crossfire.
Alberta’s tariff exposure is lower than almost everyone thinks
Carlo Dade, director of international policy at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, was a panellist at the event and walked the room through the math.
Roughly 75% of Canada’s exports go to the U.S., representing about 25% of GDP. Dade’s argument is that those numbers, while accurate nationally, tell you almost nothing about Alberta’s exposure
ByJennifer Friesen
DIGITAL JOURNAL
PublishedApril 10, 2026
Brad Parry, president and CEO of Calgary Economic Development (left), and Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas speak at CED’s Report to the Community event on Wednesday, April 8, 2026. - Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital Journal
At a celebration of Calgary’s economic momentum, the mayor got up and warned the room that the province stands a risk of blowing it.
Not because of tariffs, and not because of the CUSMA review or the unpredictability of another Trump administration. But because Alberta separatism is back as a serious political conversation, and it’s costing the province investment it can’t afford to lose.
Mayor Jeromy Farkas pointed to Quebec.
In the decades following Quebec’s 1976 separatist government election, referendums drove corporate headquarters from Montreal to Toronto, sovereign debt paid a measurable premium for decades, and the economic aftershocks outlasted the loudest voices by years.
Farkas told the 1,500 people at Calgary Economic Development’s (CED) Report to the Community that the separation rhetoric, regardless of whether it goes anywhere, already has a price tag.
Then he asked the attendees to go argue against it with their networks.
Given how strong the numbers are, it was an unexpected thing to say at what is essentially a civic pep rally.
At the event on Wednesday, CED president and CEO Brad Parry reported that the organization supported more than $1 billion in investment and nearly 8,000 jobs across the Calgary region in 2025. Trade programming enabled $60 million in international trade revenue through 45 deals, the highest annual total on record.
CED perceptions research found that 73% of Canadian and U.S. business decision-makers would consider moving to Calgary, up from 54% the year before.
CBRE’s 2025 Scoring Tech Talent report adds independent weight to that, confirming Calgary as the fastest-growing tech talent market in North America two years running, with 61% job growth between 2021 and 2024. That number comes from a real estate services firm with no particular reason to flatter anyone.
Two things are working against all of it. One arrived from Washington, but it looks like the second call is coming from inside the house.
Calgary spent a decade building an innovation economy — the thing that was supposed to make Alberta’s story bigger than oil and gas. Now that economy, and not just the energy sector, is at risk of getting caught in the crossfire.
Alberta’s tariff exposure is lower than almost everyone thinks
Carlo Dade, director of international policy at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, was a panellist at the event and walked the room through the math.
Roughly 75% of Canada’s exports go to the U.S., representing about 25% of GDP. Dade’s argument is that those numbers, while accurate nationally, tell you almost nothing about Alberta’s exposure
.
Moderator Shona Reilly (left), speaks with Matthew Lowe, Gitane De Silva, and Carlo Dade at CED’s Report to the Community at the Calgary Telus Convention Centre. – Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital Journal
Once you strip out Canadian content from the value-added calculation, and remove what the U.S. can’t easily replace, Alberta’s tariff-vulnerable exposure drops to roughly 4% of GDP.
Alberta Central’s economics team calculated Alberta’s tariff cost as a share of GDP at 4.1%, compared to Ontario at 6.3%.
In other words, the province is less vulnerable to tariffs than the national conversation suggests.
Most Alberta exports to the U.S. remain tariff free, according to the Business Council of Alberta’s CUSMA submission, because roughly 80% are energy products and American refineries were built specifically for Canadian heavy crude.
ATB Financial’s tariff analysis helps explain why.
The U.S. can’t easily source a replacement for that oil, which gives Alberta more leverage in this standoff.
Gitane De Silva, founder and president of GDStrategic and a former Canadian diplomat who sat on the event’s trade panel, argued that global instability might actually be working in Alberta’s favour (if the province can hold its position).
“When the world is uncertain, people revert to their basic human needs of focusing on shelter, security, energy and food,” she said, “and Alberta has an abundance of food and fuel.”
Once you strip out Canadian content from the value-added calculation, and remove what the U.S. can’t easily replace, Alberta’s tariff-vulnerable exposure drops to roughly 4% of GDP.
Alberta Central’s economics team calculated Alberta’s tariff cost as a share of GDP at 4.1%, compared to Ontario at 6.3%.
In other words, the province is less vulnerable to tariffs than the national conversation suggests.
Most Alberta exports to the U.S. remain tariff free, according to the Business Council of Alberta’s CUSMA submission, because roughly 80% are energy products and American refineries were built specifically for Canadian heavy crude.
ATB Financial’s tariff analysis helps explain why.
The U.S. can’t easily source a replacement for that oil, which gives Alberta more leverage in this standoff.
Gitane De Silva, founder and president of GDStrategic and a former Canadian diplomat who sat on the event’s trade panel, argued that global instability might actually be working in Alberta’s favour (if the province can hold its position).
“When the world is uncertain, people revert to their basic human needs of focusing on shelter, security, energy and food,” she said, “and Alberta has an abundance of food and fuel.”
Gitane De Silva is the founder and president of GDStrategic. – Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital Journal
What complicates things is the CUSMA review.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed on April 7 that the July 2026 deadline won’t be met and that the U.S. may need to signal non-renewal to continue negotiations.
Non-renewal doesn’t terminate the agreement, but it triggers annual reviews, potentially for years. The C.D. Howe Institute has argued the sustained uncertainty does more damage than the tariffs themselves, because organizations can adapt to a known cost but can’t plan around an unknown one.
Matthew Lowe, founder and CEO of Calgary-based ZeroKey and a panelist at the event, works with most of the world’s major automotive manufacturers. The uncertainty is showing up at the contract level.
“If I sign up for a multi-year contract, can you guarantee me two years, three years down the road, that we’re not going to be impacted by a 50% or 100% tariff,” he said. “There was a lot of hesitation.”
Every new contract now involves a negotiation that didn’t exist two years ago, so who absorbs tariff costs if rates change mid-term?
The International Chamber of Commerce published guidance last year recommending exporters review delivery terms and shift tariff risk depending on strategic exposure.
For companies paying attention, it’s become a standard part of contract structuring. For companies that haven’t revisited their agreements, it’s a liability waiting to surface.
Moderator Shona Reilly (left), speaks with Matthew Lowe, Gitane De Silva, and Carlo Dade at CED’s Report to the Community at the Calgary Telus Convention Centre. – Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital Journal
The separation tax
A vocal minority doesn’t need to win a referendum to cost Alberta a deal. They just need to keep talking.
The Calgary Chamber of Commerce’s March 2026 Business Pulse Survey found 51% of Calgary respondents said separation discourse was hurting the provincial economy. More telling, 53% ranked it as a top-three business concern, ahead of U.S. tariffs.
That tracks with what Farkas said he’s hearing on the ground.
“The fact that we’ve had this rhetoric that is largely, I think, overblown still is preventing a lot of investment from coming here,” Farkas said. “We could really be cooking with gas if we can put this issue to bed.”
Trevor Tombe, a professor of economics at the University of Calgary, estimated in February 2026 that a 15% drop in Alberta’s cross-border trade, consistent with Brexit-era disruption, would put roughly 120,000 Canadian jobs at risk nationally.
The associated economic activity at stake is estimated at $20 billion annually.
Parry’s watched the same dynamic happen in investor conversations.
“Capital is fluid and in a volatile global environment, it will choose stability, predictability and certainty,” he said. “If we choose the same path, the same unpredictable path, that capital and that talent, it’s going to go somewhere else.”
The separation conversation doesn’t even need to succeed to do damage, because the uncertainty itself is the cost.
Every month of ambiguity is a month of investment decisions deferred, talent pipelines stalled, and pitches that begin with explaining the political situation rather than the opportunity
What complicates things is the CUSMA review.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed on April 7 that the July 2026 deadline won’t be met and that the U.S. may need to signal non-renewal to continue negotiations.
Non-renewal doesn’t terminate the agreement, but it triggers annual reviews, potentially for years. The C.D. Howe Institute has argued the sustained uncertainty does more damage than the tariffs themselves, because organizations can adapt to a known cost but can’t plan around an unknown one.
Matthew Lowe, founder and CEO of Calgary-based ZeroKey and a panelist at the event, works with most of the world’s major automotive manufacturers. The uncertainty is showing up at the contract level.
“If I sign up for a multi-year contract, can you guarantee me two years, three years down the road, that we’re not going to be impacted by a 50% or 100% tariff,” he said. “There was a lot of hesitation.”
Every new contract now involves a negotiation that didn’t exist two years ago, so who absorbs tariff costs if rates change mid-term?
The International Chamber of Commerce published guidance last year recommending exporters review delivery terms and shift tariff risk depending on strategic exposure.
For companies paying attention, it’s become a standard part of contract structuring. For companies that haven’t revisited their agreements, it’s a liability waiting to surface.
Moderator Shona Reilly (left), speaks with Matthew Lowe, Gitane De Silva, and Carlo Dade at CED’s Report to the Community at the Calgary Telus Convention Centre. – Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital JournalThe separation tax
A vocal minority doesn’t need to win a referendum to cost Alberta a deal. They just need to keep talking.
The Calgary Chamber of Commerce’s March 2026 Business Pulse Survey found 51% of Calgary respondents said separation discourse was hurting the provincial economy. More telling, 53% ranked it as a top-three business concern, ahead of U.S. tariffs.
That tracks with what Farkas said he’s hearing on the ground.
“The fact that we’ve had this rhetoric that is largely, I think, overblown still is preventing a lot of investment from coming here,” Farkas said. “We could really be cooking with gas if we can put this issue to bed.”
Trevor Tombe, a professor of economics at the University of Calgary, estimated in February 2026 that a 15% drop in Alberta’s cross-border trade, consistent with Brexit-era disruption, would put roughly 120,000 Canadian jobs at risk nationally.
The associated economic activity at stake is estimated at $20 billion annually.
Parry’s watched the same dynamic happen in investor conversations.
“Capital is fluid and in a volatile global environment, it will choose stability, predictability and certainty,” he said. “If we choose the same path, the same unpredictable path, that capital and that talent, it’s going to go somewhere else.”
The separation conversation doesn’t even need to succeed to do damage, because the uncertainty itself is the cost.
Every month of ambiguity is a month of investment decisions deferred, talent pipelines stalled, and pitches that begin with explaining the political situation rather than the opportunity
.
Brad Parry, president and CEO of Calgary Economic Development. – Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital Journal
Growing pains for Canada’s fastest-growing tech city
Calgary’s growth was built on institutional alignment, openness, and the kind of predictability that makes a decade-long bet feel safe.
Right now, those things are harder to guarantee.
When organizations decide where to expand a technical team, open a regional operation, or make a long-term infrastructure investment, talent costs and office rents are part of the calculation.
Organizations need to know whether the place they invest in will look the same in 10 years. Whether the ecosystem around them is stable. Whether the government, the business community, and the broader civic environment are pulling in the same direction.
Two things are making those questions harder to give concrete answers.
The trade framework underpinning vendor and supply chain relationships is being renegotiated on a timeline nobody can predict.
And the political uncertainty documented in the Chamber survey and Tombe’s modelling is a variable that wasn’t in the calculation two years ago.
From the numbers, it looks like Calgary’s fundamentals are strong enough to hold through both. But the bigger questions show up in conversations that determine whether the next wave of investment lands here or keeps moving.
Alberta has been through plenty of instability before. The difference is what’s at stake now isn’t just barrels, but the innovation economy Calgary has spent a decade building.
Farkas borrowed a line from a friend to make his point. Brand, he told the room, isn’t what you say about yourself. It’s what other people say about you.
The people who can build Calgary aren’t always in the legislature, but they might be in the room with you.
“Tell them how you feel about this as an issue,” he said. “But don’t downplay the seriousness of the concerns.”
Final shots
Trade risk is moving into contracts and systems. As CUSMA uncertainty drags on, exposure sits across vendors, pricing models, and cross-border dependencies.
Alberta’s advantage still shows up in cost and talent, but political uncertainty is now part of the risk profile. Location decisions, hiring plans, and long-term infrastructure bets are being evaluated through that lens.
Separation doesn’t need to happen to create disruption. The impact is already showing up in delayed investment, slower approvals, and partners hesitating on long-term commitments.
Jennifer Friesen is Digital Journal's associate editor and Calgary Bureau lead.
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