Iran war and Indonesia nickel curbs: price and project signals for mine planners

April 15, 2026|

Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com

30 Second Briefing

War in Iran and Indonesia’s decision to cap 2026 nickel ore quotas at 260–270 million wet tonnes, down from 379 million tonnes, are expected to support prices, with BMI lifting its 2026 forecast to $16,600/t despite a projected 324,000‑tonne global surplus. Sulphur supply disruptions from the Middle East, critical for Indonesia’s HPAL plants, have already forced several processors to cut output by at least 10%, while higher energy costs are pressuring higher‑cost producers outside Indonesia. Demand growth is seen slowing to about 3% in 2026 as lithium iron phosphate batteries displace nickel‑rich chemistries.

Technical Brief

• Indonesia’s refined nickel output is forecast to grow 9.8% in 2026 after 9% growth in 2025.

• BMI sees the global refined nickel surplus widening “modestly” to about 324,000 tonnes in 2026.

• Three‑month LME nickel futures traded at $18,250/t after a 2.9% daily gain.

• More than two‑thirds of Indonesia’s sulphur imports originate from the Middle East, exposing HPAL input costs to disruption.

• Sulphur shortages linked to the Iran conflict have already forced several Indonesian processors to cut output by ≥10%.

• Higher energy costs are described as particularly challenging for higher‑cost nickel operations outside Indonesia.

• Global nickel demand growth is projected to slow from 5.8% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026.

• BMI’s long‑term price path rises from $16,700/t next year to $19,000/t by 2030 and $22,000/t by 2032.

Our Take

The same Strait of Hormuz and China sulphur/sulphuric acid constraints flagged in our 13 April coverage are now intersecting with Indonesia’s nickel ore quota cuts, implying a double cost squeeze for high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) projects that rely on both nickel feed and sulphuric acid.

With nickel sitting alongside sulphur in 72 keyword-matched pieces in our database, the current pricing support narrative is increasingly tied to fertiliser and acid-market logistics rather than just EV demand, which gives operators in regions like Congo and Russia exposure to a wider set of supply-chain shocks than in past nickel cycles.