New Crisis In The Making As Central Asia Lacks Enough Water For Spring Planting – Analysis

April 12, 2026 
By Paul Goble

The Central Asian countries lack sufficient water for spring planting of food this year, setting the stage for potentially massive population flight and even for military conflicts across the region (RITM Eurasia, April 2). The causes and consequences of this water shortage, however, lie far beyond that region (Vostochniy Express, August 7, 2025; RITM Eurasia, April 5; Bugin.Info, April 6). Global warming and rapid population growth are the main ones. They also include decaying infrastructure, Afghanistan’s diversion of water for its own population’s use, and the disruption of supply chains as a result of the conflict in Iran (see EDM, February 10, 2025; Window on Eurasia, December 21, 2025; The Times of Central Asia, April 3).


The region’s countries and their neighbors are now actively discussing various solutions, including talk about diverting Siberian river water to Central Asia, with some such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC) already sending in water (Window on Eurasia, July 31, 2025; RITM Eurasia, December 17, 2025; The Times of Central Asia, February 3; The Astana Times, March 30; The Moscow Times, April 7). These efforts, similar to earlier ones to save the Aral Sea and ongoing efforts to save the Caspian, are likely to prove too little too late (see EDM, March 26).

Declining water levels in the rivers and reservoirs of Central Asia have been the focus of increasing attention from officials in all five countries over the last year. Some warn that these declines now represent a serious threat to the national security of their states (RITM Eurasia, April 2). All have called for cooperation to address this problem, but most have adopted national policies that are at odds with that goal. Many agree only that it is a worthy cause and that they should work together against Afghanistan’s plans to withdraw water from rivers that flow into the region and for other countries to provide them with more water lest Central Asians be forced to flee (RITM Eurasia, February 21, 2024,December 17, 2025). Fears about water shortages leading to the forced evacuation of Central Asian capital cities have been spreading since the end of 2025 (Window on Eurasia, December 6, 2025). Now, officials and experts are sounding the alarm that declines in the availability of water will make it impossible for these countries to plant anything like all the food they need to supply their populations, as the situation has escalated (Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia, February 20; RITM Eurasia, April 2).

Experts in the region concede that Central Asian countries are losing much of the water they need because they have failed to replace outdated irrigation networks. They also argue that their governments lack the resources necessary to bring them up to date (Window on Eurasia, December 21, 2025). In recent months, such commentators have focused on the region’s water loss due to Afghanistan’s diversion plans (see EDM, February 10, 2025). Most recently, they have been discussing the effect of the conflict in Iran on food supplies to Central Asia, which makes the much-reduced crop planting this spring all the more serious (The Times of Central Asia, April 3). Appeals by these countries to neighboring powers have met with only minimal success. Beijing is now providing more water to Kazakhstan, but not nearly enough to solve the entire region’s problems (Window on Eurasia, July 31, 2025). Moscow has been making promises, including plans for the revival of a new Siberian river diversion plan, but few expect it will be realized anytime soon, if at all, given the costs and domestic opposition in Russia (see EDM, April 1, 2025). Such a project will inevitably spark opposition, which similarly killed off this endeavor at the end of Soviet times (The Moscow Times, April 7).

Some scholars in the region have expressed frustration at the failure of Russia, the PRC, and other international actors to recognize the seriousness of the water shortage in Central Asia. This has prompted some of these scholars to threaten Moscow with the prospect that if it does not help, as many as 100 million Central Asians will soon flood the Russian Federation because they will no longer have food or water to drink at home. One scholar who has done so is Ravshan Nazarov, an instructor at the Tashkent branch of the Moscow University of Economics (Vostochniy Express, August 7, 2025). He argues that the time for Siberian river diversion is now and not some distant point in the future, and that if Moscow does not respond quickly, then it will have no one to blame but itself when millions of Central Asians will be forced to flee their homelands.


Few want to believe that Central Asia is running out of water, Nazarov points out. Then again, few wanted to believe that the Aral Sea would disappear. At present, he says, the only place for Central Asians to look is the Russian Federation, which now consumes 30,000 cubic meters of water per person annually, while in Central Asia, residents use only 1,500 cubic meters each year, far, far less than half what it used to be. Now, the issue is not only water but food. According to Nazarov, growing populations, declining domestic water flows, and a dam in Afghanistan that will soon block even more water that had been coming into the region will force Moscow to agree, lest its failure to help Central Asia leads to the kind of massive and uncontrolled immigration flows that will certainly anger the Russian population. In this way, he and other Central Asians are seeking to force Moscow to recognize that water shortages in Central Asian countries are not distant problems to be ignored, but are about to become part of Moscow’s domestic problems (see EDM, July 3, 2025).


Nazarov’s predictions are likely hyperbolic. His concerns and fears, however, are very real, although perhaps not quite as immediate as he suggests. This water and food crisis in Central Asia is brewing, but it will only reach its full extent later this year. In ordinary times, Central Asians would be consuming food grown a year ago, along with imports from Iran, and thus would not face shortages from the spring planting until the fall. These are not ordinary times. Afghanistan’s river diversion plan is nearing completion. The conflict in Iran has disrupted supply chains into Central Asia while raising questions about trade corridors through that region as well (see EDM, February 2, 2025; Window on Eurasia, February 12). As a result, Central Asians are already facing shortages and dramatically rising prices (The Times of Central Asia, April 3). The crisis is likely to hit earlier, especially since many of these countries, Turkmenistan in particular, have relatively recent histories of food supply problems (Window on Eurasia, May 7, 2020).

Time is of the essence for the countries of the region and leading countries abroad to come together to address the water shortage and, in turn, the looming food shortage in Central Asia. If not addressed in the near future, Central Asians are going to be living less well off than they have been, and there will be compelling reasons for them to flee and for their governments to engage in military action either to seize water supplies or at least distract attention.

 
This article was published by The Jamestown Foundation

Paul Goble

Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. Most recently, he was director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Earlier, he served as vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia. He has served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Mr. Goble maintains the Window on Eurasia blog and can be contacted directly at paul.goble@gmail.com .