File photo of Houthi rebels patrolling near a merchant ship in Red Sea. Photo Credit: Fars News Agency
April 14, 2026
By Amb. Prof. Mohamed A. Qubaty
How two narrow waterways linking the Gulf and the Red Sea have become pivotal nodes of geoeconomic leverage in the global economy.
In the twenty-first century, global power is increasingly shaped not only by military capabilities but also by the ability to influence the flows of energy, trade, a
Hormuz: The World’s Energy Pressure Valve
For decades the Strait of Hormuz has occupied a central place in the architecture of global energy security. A significant share of the world’s traded oil and liquefied natural gas passes through this narrow corridor linking the Persian Gulf to international markets.
Even the mere possibility of disruptions in Hormuz has historically been sufficient to trigger volatility in oil prices. In this sense, Hormuz functions not only as a transit route but also as a geoeconomic pressure valve within the global energy system.
Bab Al-Mandeb: The Southern Gate Of The Rede Sea Economy
At the southern entrance to the Red Sea lies another critical chokepoint: Bab al-Mandeb. This narrow passage links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean, forming an essential segment of the maritime route connecting Asian manufacturing hubs with European markets via the Suez Canal.
The economic implications of disruptions in Bab al-Mandeb are therefore profound. Disturbances in this corridor can affect global container shipping networks, European energy supplies, trade flows between Asia and Europe, and insurance and freight markets.
The East-West Pipeline Paradox
Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure illustrates the strategic interdependence of these maritime chokepoints. In order to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, Riyadh constructed the East–West pipeline (Petroline), transporting crude oil from the Kingdom’s eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
This system was designed to ensure that Saudi exports could bypass Hormuz during periods of regional tension. Yet when oil shipped from Yanbu is destined for Asian markets, tankers must still transit through Bab al-Mandeb before reaching the Indian Ocean.
This structural reality links Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb into a single strategic system within the maritime geography of the Arabian Peninsula.
The Twin Maritime Bottleneck Equation
Viewed through a broader geostrategic lens, the two straits function as interconnected nodes within the global energy and trade architecture.
Pressure exerted in Hormuz primarily affects Gulf oil exports. Pressure exerted in Bab al-Mandeb influences shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, affecting both energy shipments and global container traffic.
When tensions simultaneously affect both chokepoints, the cumulative economic impact can extend far beyond the region. Shipping costs rise, supply chains face disruption, and global markets react with volatility.
The strategic significance therefore lies less in absolute control of these waterways than in the ability to threaten disruption sufficiently to generate economic consequences.
Conclusion
In the emerging geoeconomic landscape, the significance of maritime chokepoints will only grow. Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb are no longer merely regional waterways; they are pivotal nodes in a global system where energy security, trade flows, and geopolitical competition intersect.
Understanding the strategic interplay between these two straits — the twin maritime bottleneck equation — offers insight into how geography continues to shape power in the twenty-first century.
Amb. Prof. Mohamed A. Qubaty
Amb. Prof. Mohamed A. Qubaty is a Yemeni diplomat, academic, and former Minister of Information. He writes on Middle Eastern geopolitics, governance, and Red Sea security.
April 14, 2026
By Amb. Prof. Mohamed A. Qubaty
How two narrow waterways linking the Gulf and the Red Sea have become pivotal nodes of geoeconomic leverage in the global economy.
In the twenty-first century, global power is increasingly shaped not only by military capabilities but also by the ability to influence the flows of energy, trade, a
Hormuz And Bab Al-Mandeb: The Geopolitics Of The Twin Maritime Chokepoints – Analysisnd supply chains that sustain the world economy. Nowhere is this transformation more visible than in the strategic maritime corridors linking the Gulf and the Red Sea.
Much of that power is concentrated in a handful of narrow maritime passages where geography compresses global commerce into strategic bottlenecks. Among the most consequential of these are the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Together they form a geostrategic system whose importance extends far beyond the Middle East.
“In an interconnected global economy, the power to disrupt a maritime chokepoint may rival the power to control a battlefield.”
In an era of intensifying geoeconomic competition, maritime chokepoints are increasingly becoming instruments of geoeconomic leverage, allowing regional actors to influence global trade routes and energy flows with effects that can reverberate across continents.
The Changing Language Of Power
For much of the twentieth century, regional conflicts in the Middle East were framed primarily in military terms. Strategic competition was expressed through conventional warfare, territorial disputes, and military alliances.
Today, however, the language of strategic pressure has evolved. In an interconnected global economy, disruption of trade routes and energy flows can generate economic shockwaves far beyond the immediate theater of conflict.
Insurance premiums rise, shipping routes shift, freight costs increase, and energy markets react instantly to signals of instability. The economic consequences often extend across continents. In this context, the strategic value of maritime geography has risen dramatically.
Much of that power is concentrated in a handful of narrow maritime passages where geography compresses global commerce into strategic bottlenecks. Among the most consequential of these are the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Together they form a geostrategic system whose importance extends far beyond the Middle East.
“In an interconnected global economy, the power to disrupt a maritime chokepoint may rival the power to control a battlefield.”
In an era of intensifying geoeconomic competition, maritime chokepoints are increasingly becoming instruments of geoeconomic leverage, allowing regional actors to influence global trade routes and energy flows with effects that can reverberate across continents.
The Changing Language Of Power
For much of the twentieth century, regional conflicts in the Middle East were framed primarily in military terms. Strategic competition was expressed through conventional warfare, territorial disputes, and military alliances.
Today, however, the language of strategic pressure has evolved. In an interconnected global economy, disruption of trade routes and energy flows can generate economic shockwaves far beyond the immediate theater of conflict.
Insurance premiums rise, shipping routes shift, freight costs increase, and energy markets react instantly to signals of instability. The economic consequences often extend across continents. In this context, the strategic value of maritime geography has risen dramatically.
The Bab Al-Mandab Strait and Strait of Hormuz
Hormuz: The World’s Energy Pressure Valve
For decades the Strait of Hormuz has occupied a central place in the architecture of global energy security. A significant share of the world’s traded oil and liquefied natural gas passes through this narrow corridor linking the Persian Gulf to international markets.
Even the mere possibility of disruptions in Hormuz has historically been sufficient to trigger volatility in oil prices. In this sense, Hormuz functions not only as a transit route but also as a geoeconomic pressure valve within the global energy system.
Bab Al-Mandeb: The Southern Gate Of The Rede Sea Economy
At the southern entrance to the Red Sea lies another critical chokepoint: Bab al-Mandeb. This narrow passage links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean, forming an essential segment of the maritime route connecting Asian manufacturing hubs with European markets via the Suez Canal.
The economic implications of disruptions in Bab al-Mandeb are therefore profound. Disturbances in this corridor can affect global container shipping networks, European energy supplies, trade flows between Asia and Europe, and insurance and freight markets.
The East-West Pipeline Paradox
Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure illustrates the strategic interdependence of these maritime chokepoints. In order to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, Riyadh constructed the East–West pipeline (Petroline), transporting crude oil from the Kingdom’s eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
This system was designed to ensure that Saudi exports could bypass Hormuz during periods of regional tension. Yet when oil shipped from Yanbu is destined for Asian markets, tankers must still transit through Bab al-Mandeb before reaching the Indian Ocean.
This structural reality links Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb into a single strategic system within the maritime geography of the Arabian Peninsula.
The Twin Maritime Bottleneck Equation
Viewed through a broader geostrategic lens, the two straits function as interconnected nodes within the global energy and trade architecture.
Pressure exerted in Hormuz primarily affects Gulf oil exports. Pressure exerted in Bab al-Mandeb influences shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, affecting both energy shipments and global container traffic.
When tensions simultaneously affect both chokepoints, the cumulative economic impact can extend far beyond the region. Shipping costs rise, supply chains face disruption, and global markets react with volatility.
The strategic significance therefore lies less in absolute control of these waterways than in the ability to threaten disruption sufficiently to generate economic consequences.
Conclusion
In the emerging geoeconomic landscape, the significance of maritime chokepoints will only grow. Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb are no longer merely regional waterways; they are pivotal nodes in a global system where energy security, trade flows, and geopolitical competition intersect.
Understanding the strategic interplay between these two straits — the twin maritime bottleneck equation — offers insight into how geography continues to shape power in the twenty-first century.
Amb. Prof. Mohamed A. Qubaty
Amb. Prof. Mohamed A. Qubaty is a Yemeni diplomat, academic, and former Minister of Information. He writes on Middle Eastern geopolitics, governance, and Red Sea security.
‘Clock Is Ticking’: Hormuz Disruption Raises Fears Of Global Food Crisis
April 14, 2026
UN News
By Vibhu Mishra
The clock is ticking for global food systems as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to choke off the flow of fuel and crucial fertilizers needed for the next planting season – also raising the risk of higher food prices and a new wave of inflation.
A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has done little to restore confidence in the vital maritime corridor, where renewed tensions – including a newly announced US blockade on ships using Iranian ports – are keeping vessels idle and supply chains strained.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical waterway, carries a significant share of the world’s energy and agricultural inputs. Disruptions since the outbreak of hostilities on 28 February are already constraining flows of oil, gas and fertilizer for newly planted staples, with ripple effects reaching far beyond the Middle East.
“We have 30-35 per cent of the crude oil, which is not moving, 20 per cent of natural gas…and between 20 to 30 per cent of other fertilizers that are not moving out,” said Máximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
“That’s the magnitude of the potential impact,” he warned.
Supply bottleneck despite ceasefire
While the ceasefire briefly raised expectations that shipping could resume, uncertainty remains high. Talks between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan this weekend, failed to yield any breakthrough.
Many vessels remain stranded in the Gulf, with new shipments yet to enter the corridor. Shipowners and insurers are reluctant to risk costly assets and crews amid ongoing insecurity. Even if tensions ease, it could take days or weeks for traffic to normalise.
That delay is critical, warns David Laborde, Director of Agrifood Economics Division at FAO.
Much of the cargo that left the Gulf before the crisis has already reached its destination — meaning the world is now entering a phase where supplies could begin to tighten.
“We are going to see the real stop in supply” in the days ahead, he said.
A delayed crisis – for now
Despite sharp increases in input costs, global food prices have not yet surged – a point FAO economists stress should not be mistaken for a sign of underlying stability.
The FAO’s Food Price Index for March showed only modest increases, reflecting strong global stocks and good harvests last year.
“We have enough supplies…and good stocks which allow the agri-food system…to be resilient to this shock,” Mr. Torero said.
But that buffer may be short-lived. As planting decisions are made in the coming weeks, farmers facing higher costs and limited access to fertilizers may reduce input use or shift crops – lowering yields in the next season.
“If we don’t have the inputs in the time that is needed…that implies that producers will have to produce with less inputs,” he said. “And therefore, they could have lower yields.”
That, in turn, could drive up food prices later in the year and into the next.
A chain of interdependence
The risks extend across the entire food value chain. Energy underpins everything from farm machinery to transport, while fertilizers – particularly nitrogen-based products linked to natural gas – are critical for crop yields.
The impact is global: from the US and Canada to Australia, farmers depend on stable access to energy and inputs to maintain production, while import-dependent countries – including many in Africa, such as Kenya – face heightened exposure to price shocks and supply disruptions.
Higher oil prices are also increasing incentives to divert crops such as maize, sugar and oilseeds toward biofuel production, tightening the balance between food and fuel.
“If we have rising demand because biofuels start to consume more…and lower supply because we have less input…food prices will go up,” Mr. Laborde warned.
Risks of a ‘perfect storm’
FAO economists warn the situation could deteriorate further if additional pressures emerge – including export restrictions or climate shocks such as the El Niño weather pattern.
In past crises, countries have restricted exports to protect domestic markets, exacerbating global shortages.
“We need to avoid export restrictions…especially now for fertilizers and energy,” Mr. Torero said, warning that without coordination, vulnerable countries could be priced out of essential supplies.
A global risk with local consequences
Although the crisis is centred in the Middle East, its effects are spreading rapidly. Countries in Asia and the Global South are particularly exposed due to their reliance on imported energy and fertilizers and their position in the crop calendar.
“This will start to move from east to west…but also from the south to the north,” Mr. Torero said.
The consequences are both economic and human. Higher food prices hit poorer households hardest, while rising inflation could force governments to tighten monetary policy, slowing growth and increasing debt burdens.
Farmers are also under mounting pressure. Rising input costs and uncertainty are squeezing margins and raising the risk of longer-term disruptions to production.
“When you push them too much, you may bring them into bankruptcy,” Mr. Laborde said. “And then it means there will be a supply problem…for a longer period.”
Alarm bells ringing
Across parts of Asia, early signs of disruption are already emerging.
In South Asia, rising fuel and fertilizer costs are beginning to filter into food prices and farm decisions, with import-dependent economies under mounting pressure.
In Nepal, where millions of households rely on remittances from Gulf countries, disruptions to mobility and rising transport costs are already being felt – raising concerns that what begins as an external shock could quickly translate into hardship at home.
A narrow window to act
FAO is urging governments and international financial institutions to act quickly.
Short-term priorities include avoiding trade restrictions, supporting vulnerable households through social protection, and ensuring liquidity for farmers, including through credit lines and import financing.
Longer term, the crisis underscores the need to diversify energy sources, strengthen infrastructure and reduce reliance on chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
For now, FAO stresses that a full-blown food crisis is not inevitable – but the window to prevent one is rapidly closing.
“The clock is the key…Let’s avoid a perfect storm – be aware of the risks, put the right policies in place and pursue the diplomatic solutions needed to avert a food crisis we do not need,” Mr. Torero urged.
April 14, 2026
UN News
By Vibhu Mishra
The clock is ticking for global food systems as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to choke off the flow of fuel and crucial fertilizers needed for the next planting season – also raising the risk of higher food prices and a new wave of inflation.
A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has done little to restore confidence in the vital maritime corridor, where renewed tensions – including a newly announced US blockade on ships using Iranian ports – are keeping vessels idle and supply chains strained.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical waterway, carries a significant share of the world’s energy and agricultural inputs. Disruptions since the outbreak of hostilities on 28 February are already constraining flows of oil, gas and fertilizer for newly planted staples, with ripple effects reaching far beyond the Middle East.
“We have 30-35 per cent of the crude oil, which is not moving, 20 per cent of natural gas…and between 20 to 30 per cent of other fertilizers that are not moving out,” said Máximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
“That’s the magnitude of the potential impact,” he warned.
Supply bottleneck despite ceasefire
While the ceasefire briefly raised expectations that shipping could resume, uncertainty remains high. Talks between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan this weekend, failed to yield any breakthrough.
Many vessels remain stranded in the Gulf, with new shipments yet to enter the corridor. Shipowners and insurers are reluctant to risk costly assets and crews amid ongoing insecurity. Even if tensions ease, it could take days or weeks for traffic to normalise.
That delay is critical, warns David Laborde, Director of Agrifood Economics Division at FAO.
Much of the cargo that left the Gulf before the crisis has already reached its destination — meaning the world is now entering a phase where supplies could begin to tighten.
“We are going to see the real stop in supply” in the days ahead, he said.
A delayed crisis – for now
Despite sharp increases in input costs, global food prices have not yet surged – a point FAO economists stress should not be mistaken for a sign of underlying stability.
The FAO’s Food Price Index for March showed only modest increases, reflecting strong global stocks and good harvests last year.
“We have enough supplies…and good stocks which allow the agri-food system…to be resilient to this shock,” Mr. Torero said.
But that buffer may be short-lived. As planting decisions are made in the coming weeks, farmers facing higher costs and limited access to fertilizers may reduce input use or shift crops – lowering yields in the next season.
“If we don’t have the inputs in the time that is needed…that implies that producers will have to produce with less inputs,” he said. “And therefore, they could have lower yields.”
That, in turn, could drive up food prices later in the year and into the next.
A chain of interdependence
The risks extend across the entire food value chain. Energy underpins everything from farm machinery to transport, while fertilizers – particularly nitrogen-based products linked to natural gas – are critical for crop yields.
The impact is global: from the US and Canada to Australia, farmers depend on stable access to energy and inputs to maintain production, while import-dependent countries – including many in Africa, such as Kenya – face heightened exposure to price shocks and supply disruptions.
Higher oil prices are also increasing incentives to divert crops such as maize, sugar and oilseeds toward biofuel production, tightening the balance between food and fuel.
“If we have rising demand because biofuels start to consume more…and lower supply because we have less input…food prices will go up,” Mr. Laborde warned.
Risks of a ‘perfect storm’
FAO economists warn the situation could deteriorate further if additional pressures emerge – including export restrictions or climate shocks such as the El Niño weather pattern.
In past crises, countries have restricted exports to protect domestic markets, exacerbating global shortages.
“We need to avoid export restrictions…especially now for fertilizers and energy,” Mr. Torero said, warning that without coordination, vulnerable countries could be priced out of essential supplies.
A global risk with local consequences
Although the crisis is centred in the Middle East, its effects are spreading rapidly. Countries in Asia and the Global South are particularly exposed due to their reliance on imported energy and fertilizers and their position in the crop calendar.
“This will start to move from east to west…but also from the south to the north,” Mr. Torero said.
The consequences are both economic and human. Higher food prices hit poorer households hardest, while rising inflation could force governments to tighten monetary policy, slowing growth and increasing debt burdens.
Farmers are also under mounting pressure. Rising input costs and uncertainty are squeezing margins and raising the risk of longer-term disruptions to production.
“When you push them too much, you may bring them into bankruptcy,” Mr. Laborde said. “And then it means there will be a supply problem…for a longer period.”
Alarm bells ringing
Across parts of Asia, early signs of disruption are already emerging.
In South Asia, rising fuel and fertilizer costs are beginning to filter into food prices and farm decisions, with import-dependent economies under mounting pressure.
In Nepal, where millions of households rely on remittances from Gulf countries, disruptions to mobility and rising transport costs are already being felt – raising concerns that what begins as an external shock could quickly translate into hardship at home.
A narrow window to act
FAO is urging governments and international financial institutions to act quickly.
Short-term priorities include avoiding trade restrictions, supporting vulnerable households through social protection, and ensuring liquidity for farmers, including through credit lines and import financing.
Longer term, the crisis underscores the need to diversify energy sources, strengthen infrastructure and reduce reliance on chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
For now, FAO stresses that a full-blown food crisis is not inevitable – but the window to prevent one is rapidly closing.
“The clock is the key…Let’s avoid a perfect storm – be aware of the risks, put the right policies in place and pursue the diplomatic solutions needed to avert a food crisis we do not need,” Mr. Torero urged.
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