U of A research finds improved weather forecasts could reduce heat deaths as climate warms
Experts found that technological advancements could reduce U.S. mortality from heat by 18% to 25% in the year 2100.
University of Arizona
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Depending on the range of technological improvements and climate change, researchers found that improving short-term temperature forecasts in alignment with expert predictions of technological development could reduce U.S. mortality from heat by 18% to 25% in the year 2100.
view moreCredit: Chris Richards/University of Arizona Communications
When extreme weather looms, timely and accurate warnings can give people the chance to adjust their plans, brace for danger and, in the most severe cases, make decisions that keep them safe. Does that mean improving weather forecasts could save more lives in a warming climate?
Derek Lemoine, Arizona Public Service professor of economics at the University of Arizona Eller College of Management, is part of a team that recently answered that question. The team's research, published in the journal PNAS, suggests that improving short-term temperature forecasts in alignment with expert predictions of technological development could reduce U.S. mortality from heat by 18% to 25% in the year 2100.
"That could offset the extra heat-related deaths caused by climate change," Lemoine said. "To be clear, we would still rather not experience the climate change – but at least we can find ways to potentially cancel out the increased mortality. While extreme cold is very deadly, people primarily use weather forecasts to avoid the heat. Considering climate change will increase the frequency of extreme heat, accurate weather forecasts will become more valuable."
Lemoine worked alongside researchers from Columbia University, the University of Oregon and Princeton University.
To reach their conclusions, Lemoine and his colleagues used day-ahead National Weather Service forecasts across the contiguous United States dating back to the summer of 2004. They combined that information with actual weather data collected by Oregon State University's PRISM Climate Group, which collects tens of thousands of weather station observations from across the country every day. After compiling their historical weather data, the researchers then incorporated county‑level mortality records from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which tracks vital events across the country.
After eliminating deaths caused by factors other than weather, the team found that a key element in the relationship between temperature and mortality is the accuracy of weather forecasting. The greatest risk came when forecasts underestimated hot conditions. Lemoine said the team established that more accurate forecasts could help reduce deaths on dangerously hot days.
The researchers then examined the future of weather forecasting, and how technological improvements could further enhance its life‑saving potential. They did so by surveying professional meteorologists in early 2025 to gauge how forecasting technology might evolve in the future. Respondents offered insights into a variety of factors, including advancements in artificial intelligence, the effects of climate change and shifts in funding and staffing levels.
Those responses informed the development of three future forecasting scenarios: one in which forecast accuracy matches meteorologists' most optimistic expectations, another based on their most pessimistic projections and a third in which weather prediction becomes perfectly accurate. Using their historical data on mortality and climate, the researchers then estimated how each scenario would affect future mortality under several climate conditions: a no‑climate‑change case where temperatures from 2095 to 2100 resemble those from 2015 to 2020, a warming scenario of 1.6 degrees Celsius, another of 2.7 degrees Celsius and an extreme scenario in which the contiguous United States warms by 3.8 degrees Celsius.
Depending on the range of technological improvements and climate change, the researchers discovered several scenarios in which more accurate weather forecasts could largely offset projected increases in heat-related deaths due to climate change. They also concluded that if investment in forecasting declines and forecast quality deteriorates, lower‑quality predictions could in turn contribute to more heat‑related fatalities.
"Economists aren't valuing life itself," Lemoine said. "We're valuing reductions in the risk of dying. The government conducts a cost‑benefit analysis of new policies, and a key part of that involves assigning a standardized value to any lives saved. That value is so large that it often dominates the analysis. In this case, the number of lives saved by improved forecasting – and the likelihood that this benefit will grow as climate change increases risks – translates into a very high economic value. Once you apply that value to the number of lives saved through better forecasting, you end up with a substantial benefit to investing in weather forecasting."
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Method of Research
Data/statistical analysis
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
Weather forecasts become more important for reducing mortality as the climate warms
Article Publication Date
13-Apr-2026
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