Showing posts sorted by date for query Fraser Institute. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query Fraser Institute. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Wednesday, April 03, 2024

Basic Income for a New Model of Canadian Social Democracy

Now is the time for the democratic left in Canada to develop a workable and comprehensive version of basic income as a key policy instrument, and not a sideline consideration.



LONG READ


Basic income is a paradigm-shifting idea on how to ensure economic security for everyone. It is an idea has been discussed and often debated by social democrats and those on the democratic left for many years. This article is a contribution to this discussion from someone who does research on and writes about basic income, but who has also played an active role in the basic income movement in Canada for fifteen years.

Canadian basic income advocates are part of a movement for basic income that is international in scope. It is a multi-faceted and ecumenical amalgam of national and sub-national advocacy groups, civil society organizations, policy experts, academics, campaigners, and research institutes. Important leadership on the global level have been provided since 1986 by the Basic Income Earth Network (BIEN). The basic income movement in Canada was launched with the 2008 founding (as a national chapter of BIEN) of the organization now called the Basic Income Canada Network. Since then, many other basic income advocacy organizations have emerged at national, provincial and local levels, including (at the national level) Coalition Canada: Basic Income, UBI Works, and Revenu du base Québec. These organizations are working for an equitable and feasible version of basic income for Canada and have taken a very deliberate non-partisan approach to their work. They have received support from across the political spectrum,[1] including from the late Senator and prominent Conservative Hugh Segal, in convention resolutions passed by the federal Liberal Party, from current and former NDP Members of Parliament, and from the Green Party of Canada (who have supported basic income for over twenty years).

Canadian advocates of basic income have become increasingly invested in a particular model of basic income that they want to see implemented in this country. This model would target lower income people (rather than a being a demogrant that is paid to everyone). It would complement (but not necessarily replace) elements in the broader income support architecture at the level of the federal government, leaving intact the large social insurance programs of Employment Insurance and the Canada/Quebec Pension Plans. In February 2023 three national advocacy organizations, the Basic Income Canada Network, Coalition Canada: Basic Income, and UBI Works, endorsed a Consensus Statement on a Basic Income Guarantee that outlines the principles and general design for a feasible basic income program for Canada.[2]

This essay first surveys views on basic income found on the democratic left in Canada. Consideration will be given will to how negative and sceptical views about basic income on the left are addressed by the Consensus Statement. Following this survey, elements in the Consensus Statement (as well as some key points drawn from broader basic income sources) will be considered alongside core tenets of social democracy as articulated in the Broadbent Principles for Canadian Social Democracy. Lastly, some suggestions will be made on how the basic income model of universal economic security could reshape our conception of social democracy as we confront the existential threats of economic and social inequality, rising right-wing authoritarianism, and the ecological emergency.
Critical Perspectives of Basic Income on the Left

There has been an array of reactions to the idea of (universal) basic income among social democratic thinkers, activists, and politicians.[3] Outright opponents include those who object to the “universal” aspect of “universal basic income.” They see basic income as an inefficient and wasteful use of public funds in that it is not targeted to those who need income support the most. Another general concern of these critics is that basic income will serve as a neoliberal ‘trojan horse.’ This argument assumes that while low-income people would be provided with a modest unconditional cash benefit. At the same time further cuts to public services would be justified. Further in this telling of a possible basic income world, all of us (including those whose only income is a paltry amount of basic income) will have to fend for ourselves in the profit-seeking marketplace to secure necessities such as health care, education, or affordable and decent housing.

The efficiency and trojan horse objections to basic income have been found both among neoliberals but also on the left in recent years. But there are now social democratic voices expressing more open-minded views on basic income. MacEwan et al. (2020) tentatively and conditionally endorse basic income in their 2020 report Basic Income Guarantee: A Social Democratic Framework from their vantage point at the Broadbent Institute.[4] They do fear that basic income may be seen as a “silver bullet” or a “quick fix solution” to poverty and economic insecurity. But the report’s authors do conclude in a positive vein that “there are concrete steps that we can take to make a basic income more feasible in the future and help to address poverty right now.”

On the other hand, MacEwan et al. couch their support for basic income in this way:


A host of labour market policies such as full employment, residency status for migrant workers, employment standards, training supports, and union density interact with income support programs and must be taken into consideration. In Canada, addressing these questions is the responsibility of different levels of government, making any implementation of a basic income even more complicated. Designing a program that meets the expectations of social democrats will not be simple.

This assertion that basic income “complicates” the achievement of other social democratic goals such as lowering unemployment and decent jobs is a questionable framing. The implementation of any new social program–be it basic income or say an expansion of the public healthcare system – “complicates” the overall operation of the welfare state, so it is not clear why basic income is unique in this regard.

Additionally, basic income is not a complicated program in the sense that its goal is simply to ensure that people have sufficient income to live a good life. In fact, Canada already maintains an array of federal income support programs, including the Guaranteed Income Supplement for seniors, the Canada Child Benefit for families with children, and the GST refund for low-income people. A fully implemented basic income could be paid out through the existing tax-and-transfer system that these existing programs already use. In this sense, basic income is less complex than the other aspirational goals identified by MacEwan et al. (2020) such as “full employment” or “training supports.” Implementing basic income does not require social democrats to abandon these other goals, and in fact may help to achieve them. In another recent Canadian study by Dwyer et al. (2023),[5] it was found that simply giving homeless people money could be helpful in addressing their other difficult and complicated social needs, and in facilitating their access to in-kind supports. The potential outcomes out of an administratively simple program are far-reaching.

It may be that social democratic hesitancy or half-hearted support regarding basic income is a case of the perfect becoming an enemy of the good. Some social democrats will not give basic income their unequivocal support unless various other desirable policies are already in place and all the consequences can be foreseen. However, there are instances in Canadian social welfare history when progressive politicians, government officials, and advocates made social policy ‘leaps of faith’ that push forward on equality, even though all of the complications or consequences of a new program were not in view. This was the case when workers’ compensation was implemented in the early twentieth century, when unemployment insurance was launched in 1940, and when public health insurance was extended across the country in the latter part of the 1960s. Progressives pushed forward nonetheless, and people benefited. Perhaps it is time for social democrats to make such a ‘leap of faith’ with basic income. This leap would not be made without any foresight either; there is already substantial research and policy learning on basic income to guide the design and launch of an effective and sustainable program that fits the current context in Canada.

It is still important to consider the critical research to understand where basic income’s limitations can occur. A recent comprehensive and noted critique of basic income from a progressive perspective came from Green, Kesselman and Tedds (2021).[6] This report was commissioned by the provincial NDP government of British Columbia as part of its legislative supply and confidence agreement with the BC Green Party in 2017.[7]

In their final report, Green, et. al., concluded that “the needs of people in this society are too diverse to be effectively answered simply with a cheque from the government.” The authors seemed to assume that a ‘stand-alone’ basic income was what Canadian advocates were calling for. However, prominent national organizations advocating for basic income in Canada have proposed a basic income that becomes a part of the existing social welfare system, meeting the social needs in Canada. The 2023 Consensus Statement of basic income advocates strongly emphasized that basic income needs to be embedded in an array of public services such as health care, social housing, food security measures, child and elder care, and other aspects of Canada’s welfare state.

In particular, basic income could be a transformative alternative to the existing model of provincial social assistance, given that it is inadequate, stigmatizing, and dysfunctional.[8] [9] Basic income advocates also hold the view that such a program would support people not assisted by federal social insurance programs such as Employment Insurance or the Canada Pension Plan. A made-in-Canada and income-tested version of basic income could in fact operate like, and be built out from, existing federal income support programs such as Old Age Security, the Guaranteed Income Supplement for seniors, the Canada Child Benefit for families with young children, and the GST Refund, and the Canada Workers Benefit for low income people.[10] [11] [12]

On a conceptual level, Green, et. al., claim that,


A basic income emphasizes individual autonomy—an important characteristic of a just society. However, in doing so it de-emphasizes other crucial characteristics of justice that must be, in our view, balanced: community, social interactions, reciprocity, and dignity.

In fact, research on and advocacy for basic income have presented multiple rationales for basic income that are grounded in the goals of economic justice, social solidarity, freedom from domination, and environmental sustainability.[13] [14] [15] To be sure, there are certainly tensions and sometimes contradictions among these various rationales, but to portray basic income as being primarily about “individual autonomy” as Green, et. al., portend distorts Canadian and international debates about basic income that have been ongoing for many decades.
Advocacy for Basic Income on the Left

The Consensus Statement calls for a version of basic income in Canada that is income-tested where “benefit amounts will be determined based on taxable income with provisions to rapidly accommodate significant changes in income and family composition,” and where “benefits will be reduced gradually as other taxable income increases.” This targeted model of basic income would cost much less than a universal demogrant. The income-tested model of basic income would also avoid having to tax back the benefit from high income earners (presuming that such a demogrant would in fact be taxed). Such a clawback process would result in a great deal of ‘churn’ and in the tax-and-transfer system, and in higher tax rates for high income earners that would likely provide ammunition for parties on the right that campaign against taxation in general.

On the argument that basic income would lead to additional cuts to in-kind programs of the welfare state, neoliberals who are intent on shrinking social welfare provision have not had to wait for basic income to make their cuts. They have been eroding welfare programs for several decades now, and basic income has only received serious discussion and consideration in Canada for the last ten years or so. To make cuts to social programs, neoliberals have not had to rely on the promise of a basic income to justify austerity.

That said, it is also true that basic income advocates must be wary about basic income becoming a new rationale for cutting social programs. The Consensus Statement addresses this question directly by opposing the “either/or” framing of having to choose between basic income or basic services. These points are contained in the Statement:The basic income guarantee should be an essential component of broad publicly funded universal supports and services.
The basic income guarantee will not replace any publicly delivered social, health or educational services.
The basic income guarantee will not restrict access to any current or future benefits meant to meet special, exceptional, or other distinct needs and goals beyond basic needs.

Given the need for clarity and debate, advocates for basic income on the left have also engaged in critical discourse from a social democratic perspective. An important policy voice on the left in Canada is the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA). One of CCPA’s early considerations of basic income was structured as an inventory of pros and cons.[16]

The CCPA has continued to publish constructive analysis on basic income that incorporates the views of critics and supporters of basic income, and a collection edited by Himelfarb and Hennesey (2016) is particularly notable in this regard.[17] Himelfarb and Hennessey expressed a degree of openness to basic income, and in their introductory remarks, the co-editors questioned the modest incrementalist approach that has characterised Canadian progressive policy to address poverty reduction and economic precarity in recent years. Himmelfarb and Hennesey see basic income as, “the kind of jolt that breaks the mould. Maybe this is a step in a new direction — and new directions are in great need right now.”

Guy Caron, a former NDP Member of Parliament from Quebec who ran unsuccessfully for the federal NDP leadership in 2017, has also been advocate for basic income among Canadian social democrats. During his leadership campaign Caron made basic income a central plank in his platform, and since leaving federal politics, in 2020 Caron produced a brief Broadbent Institute explainer to articulate on a “guaranteed minimum income.”[18] In this explainer, he argued that such an income-tested benefit could be implemented by the federal government based upon its experience with the COVID-19 Pandemic policy measures implementing the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB). In Caron’s view, Ottawa should take the initiative with this program, and then seek to engage provincial governments to coordinate their programs with guaranteed minimum income. In the social democratic spirit, Caron presents his basic income proposal as complementary to job creation, progressive labour market policies, and improvement in public services; not as a substitute for such measures.

Labour movement leaders and progressive economists have also expressed their supportive views for basic income in Canada. Canadian economist Jim Stanford for instance sees basic income as a program that will strengthen workers, including unionized ones.[19] Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic income support programs such as CERB, Stanford (2022) views that:


The core principles that no-one should live in poverty, that we can afford a decent living standard for everyone, that protecting the poor strengthens the well-being of us all, are more within our reach than for many decades. … [T]hinking big about universal income security is appropriate and inspiring. And done right, it can both strengthen and unify the struggles of trade unionists and anti-poverty advocates.

In a similar vein, researchers associated with the Labour Studies Department at McMaster University have focused on basic income as a measure to address labour market precarity and economic insecurity of working people.[20] [21] Building on a multi-year research project on Poverty and Employment Precarity in Southern Ontario, they also studied the Ontario Basic Income Pilot Project, implemented in select Ontario communities in 2018, and subsequently cancelled by the then incoming Progressive Conservative provincial government. From this brief but substantial study, Ferdosi et al. (2020) concluded that, “the stability basic income provides can help recipients move to better paying employment and to play a fuller role as citizens in society,” and that basic income “has the potential to improve the physical and mental health of participants and reduce their demands on public health resources.”[22]
Canadian Political Developments on a Social Democratic Basic Income

As outlined above, basic income has received a substantial defence on the Canadian left among the ranks of labour, politics, and academia. An overarching question, however, is whether or not Canada’s social democratic party—The New Democratic Party of Canada and its provincial wings—will make basic income a policy priority and a central plank in their election campaign platforms. In the 2021 federal election, the federal NDP platform made the policy commitment to enact:


“A livable income when you need it […]

With the Canada Emergency Response Benefit, we have seen what’s possible when governments mobilize to make a livable income a priority.

… we’ll get to work right away building towards a guaranteed livable income for all Canadians.

In time, New Democrats will work to expand all income security programs to ensure everyone in Canada has access to a guaranteed livable basic income.”

In this framing, the federal NDP appeared to offer only vague, rhetorical support for basic income. Following the 2021 election, the NDP caucus forged a Parliamentary supply and confidence agreement in March 2022 to prop up the minority Liberal government in exchange for NDP legislative priorities. In this agreement public programs for dental care and prescription drugs were at the top of the priority list; however, improved income security programs were not part of the agreement.

There are, still, federal NDP caucus members that have pushed the basic income agenda forward. In December 2021, NDP MP Leah Gazan introduced a private member’s Bill (C-223 – An Act to develop a national framework for a guaranteed livable basic income) in the House of Commons. This bill directs the Minister of Finance to take one year to “develop a national framework for the implementation of a guaranteed livable basic income program throughout Canada for any person over the age of 17, including temporary workers, permanent residents and refugee claimants.” An identical Bill (S-233) was introduced in the Upper Chamber by Senator Kim Pate, where it received second reading and was sent to Committee for further study in April 2023.

Over the last several years social democrats in Canada have warmed to the idea of basic income as a new approach to ensuring economic security for all, despite the continued hesitancy of centering such a program as a foundational plank of a progressive policy platform.

Canadian social democrats can move beyond basic income as just an ‘add on’ policy to their many existing political objectives and build on principles of unconditional economic security for all to reshape our model of social democracy. To build a Canada that is just and equitable, outlined as the central objective of the Broadbent Principles for Canadian Social Democracy, basic income holds the potential to addressing the gaps in economic and social rights.

There are various (but often generally similar) definitions of “social democracy.” One that is helpful for this discussion is offered by Ben Jackson (2013) is that of:


An ideology which prescribes the use of democratic political action to extend the principles of freedom and equality valued be democrats in the political sphere to the organization of the economy and society, chiefly by opposing the inequality and oppression created by laissez-faire capitalism.[23]

Basic income advocates in Canada take a rigorously non-partisan approach that embraces no political ideology, be it social democracy, liberalism, conservatism, or whatever. Nonetheless, a case can be made that the current preferred model of Canadian basic income advocates, as articulated the 2023 Consensus Statement, is one that aligns closely with social democratic principles and as a complement to its strong systems of social welfare.

Given this convergence with basic income advocates, there is an opportunity for Canadian social democrats, including the New Democratic Party, labour unions, and social movements of the broad democratic left, to focus on a made-in-Canada model of a basic income guarantee in their social advocacy and political campaigning.
Basic Income and the Reformulation of Social Democracy

There are certainly opportunities for basic income and its convergence with social democratic principles, and so Canadian social democrats must go beyond supporting it as a worthwhile policy idea and make basic income implementation a key plank in election platforms.

Fundamentally, social democrats should embrace the basic income model of economic security as one aspect of a broader project of rethinking the tenets of social democracy. Engaging in such a radical re-think gives social democrats an opportunity to develop effective responses to existential and global crises faced by society such as economic inequality and precarity, the rise of right-wing authoritarian populism, and the ecological emergency.

This is no small task, to be sure, but there are several pivotal issues around which we can begin to construct a new model of social democracy that incorporates, and complements, a basic income.
i) Basic Income and Social Reproduction

Some feminist theorists are concerned that basic income could trap women in unwaged reproductive labour roles,[24] but others take a more positive position. Kathi Weeks (2020) discusses how basic income can address the failure of heteropatriarchal family in late capitalism to properly count economic contributions, especially the unpaid reproductive labour of women, and to distribute income in a more fair and efficient way.[25] In a similar vein, Nancy Fraser (2016) links the struggle for a basic income with other progressive causes, including campaigns for a shorter work week, public childcare, housing, rights of migrant domestic workers, and environmental protection, and sees the programmatic change sought by social movements as a “new way of organizing social reproduction.”[26] Nedelsky and Malleson (2023) argue that basic income merits consideration as part of a suite of policy measures that could enable a transition to a society in which all of us work part-time so that we can fully engage in care work within the family and community.[27]

Social reproduction and care work are matters on which social democrats have had much to say. Social democrats have fought for, and frequently achieved, programs that provide public, accessible childcare, as well as financial and practical support for family caregivers. Building on this historic struggle, a social democratic version of basic income could better support family care work regardless of gendered roles. Such a program could also help lower the number of hours in the standard work week; could enable easier transitions between unpaid and paid work; and could ensure better access to good jobs for women and other groups who have been historically disadvantaged in the labour market.

For the purposes of election campaigning, social democrats could present clear and comprehensive family policies grounded in basic income principles that would address the crisis in social reproduction. Such a package of policies could conceivably gain broad public support. Most people in Canada can relate directly and powerfully with the challenges of family care, economic survival in a precarious labour market, and the time poverty that results from the demands of both paid labour and unpaid care work. Social democrats should develop flexible and nuanced responses to these challenges using the basic income approach.
ii) Basic Income and Political Participation

Canadian social democratic political parties campaign in elections to win seats and form governments, but they also connect with Canadians to form durable social alliances that achieve progressive political goals and go beyond election campaigns. Social democrats themselves are found in the ranks of unions, women’s organizations, coalitions fighting racism and trans- and queerphobia, and many other civil society groups.

Unfortunately, it is not apparent that these coalitions and alliances have formed a resilient and sustained political movement for reshaping Canada along social democratic and left-progressive lines. On the other hand, in recent years we have seen in Canada the remarkable growth of authoritarian, right-wing populism that has been aided immensely by echo chambers of social media on the internet. Right-wing populism gained significant momentum during the COVID-19 pandemic, with its opposition to public health measures such as vaccination mandates. How can the democratic left build a populism of its own to counter the rise of these right-wing forces that are racist, xenophobic, antipathetic towards democratically elected political leaders, contemptuous of scientific research, and sometimes neo-fascistic?

This is a complex question that cannot be fully addressed here, but it plausible to suggest that one driver of right-wing extremism is a deep and abiding economic anxiety about the future. This anxiety is an outgrowth of precarious employment, rising costs for necessities such as groceries and housing, and attenuated access to public goods such as health care. There are other sinister forces at play, for sure, such as white supremacist groups spreading their propaganda, and libertarian politicians undermining the very legitimacy of governments and public policy. Still, economic insecurity and uncertainty surely plays a role in fuelling right-wing populism.

Senator Kim Pate and MP Leah Gazan have argued that this economic insecurity and anxiety could be addressed in part by setting in place a basic income guarantee for all.[28] This would not be a panacea—in fact, basic income is derided and opposed by right-wing populists who are deeply suspicious of public policy measures that redistribute wealth. Nonetheless, basic income, along with other policy innovations and moral clarion calls from the left, may help to restore the faith of Canadians in collective and perhaps universal measures to look after one another through public programs, and the various levers of government power under democratic control.
iii) Basic Income and Social-Ecological Transition

An increasingly prominent understanding of today’s ecological imperative points towards a steady-state economy and a post-growth society in which basic income plays a central role, when the limits of growth encroach on the present environmental emergency. Social democrats must consider social welfare beyond its dependence on economic growth in the current capitalist mode of production—a different political economy in which scarcity is overcome through radical redistribution within and between countries, to avoid the worst consequences of the environmental emergency.

Basic income ought to be a necessary policy choice in this scenario, in place of the notion of “full employment” construed as all working-age adults being continually employed in full-time paid work. Social democrats must search for policies that support full social engagement in socially necessary and useful (paid and unpaid) work, bearing in mind the need for gender justice as discussed in the section on social reproduction immediately above.

Basic income, once again, would be part of a mix of policies in a social-ecological transition guided by social democratic principles. Such a transition would lead us to more modest and local ways of life, but also to greater economic security and personal fulfillment in a political-economic order that is equitable, just, inclusive, and sustainable.
Basic Income for Canadian Social Democracy

Even during the ‘Golden Age’ of the western social democratic welfare program, thoughtful and influential social democrats have endorsed basic income. In September 1968, Ed Broadbent gave his inaugural speech as a newly elected Member of Parliament, where he identified “the absence of a guaranteed annual income” as one of the “serious deficiencies that still remain” in the “structural components of the modern welfare state.”[29]

Now is the time for the democratic left in Canada to develop a workable and comprehensive version of basic income as a key policy instrument, and not a sideline consideration. Canadian social democrats should incorporate the principle of guaranteed, unconditional and universal economic security as a fundamental program for its vision a better society. Such a commitment could reshape and renew our understanding of social democracy and move us forward in our continuing quest to build a better Canada.


FURTHER READING
Bank of Canada Independence Vs. Accountability
ISSUE NO. 1 – SPRING 2024 | JOURNAL
April 2, 2024
Dave McGrane
The origin of the concept of central bank independence is a critique of social democratic ideas prevalent during the middle part of Friedman’s career.



Trad-Wives and Hustle-Bros: Contemporary Rejections of Late-Stage Capitalism
ANALYSIS
March 6, 2024
Alexandra Ages
The “trad-wife” and “hustle-bro” subcultures are a phenomena of the social media age, and a symptom of late-stage capitalism.



A Common Platform for a Green Industrial Transformation
OPINION
February 6, 2024
Clay Duncalfe, Clement Nocos, Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood
Across Canada, public investments totalling $188 billion over five years in these key priorities are urgently needed to drive a prosperous green transformation.





Perspectives is a Canadian Journal of Political Economy and Social Democracy by the Broadbent Institute

info@perspectivesjournal.ca
SUPPORT OUR WORK

© 2023 Broadbent Institute. All rights reserved.


Saturday, March 16, 2024

 

Zircons reveal the history of fluctuations in oxidation state of crustal magmatism and supercontinent cycle


SCIENCE CHINA PRESS
Zircons reveal the history of fluctuations in oxidation state of crustal magmatism and supercontinent cycle 

IMAGE: 

ZIRCONS, A MINERAL NEARLY AS OLD AS EARTH ITSELF, IS A TIME KEEPER, AND ALSO PROVIDES A CHEMICAL WINDOW INTO MANY GEOLOGICAL PHENOMENA, SUCH AS OXIDATION STATE. BY DETERMINING THE OXIDATION LEVELS OF THE MAGMAS THAT FORMED THESE DETRITAL ZIRCONS, SCIENTISTS ARE ABLE TO DEDUCE THE ONSET OF CRUST TO MANTLE RECYCLING, WEATHERING, AND THE SUPERCONTINENT CYCLE.

view more 

CREDIT: ©SCIENCE CHINA PRESS




This study is led by Dr. Rui Wang and his PhD student Shao-chen Wu (Institute of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Beijing), Dr. Roberto Weinberg and Dr. Peter Cawood (Monash University), and Dr. William Collins (Curtin University).

Zircons, a mineral nearly as old as Earth itself, crystalize when magmas (molten rocks) cool and can be found in trace quantities in magmatic rocks. The formation of magmas constitutes the mountains in the Earth. Through interactions with water and atmosphere, the mountains break down into sediments. Zircons are so durable and resistant to weathering and erosion that they rarely go away, and therefore this mineral in sediments (so call “detrital zircons”) holds the greatest insight into the history of the Earth. Zircon enriches with U (U-Pb dating) is a time keeper, and also provides a chemical window into many geological phenomena, such as oxidation state.

The team uses a new method of Loucks et al (2020) for determining the oxidation state of granitic magmas that uses ratios of Ce, U, and Ti in zircon to track oxidation state change of crustal magmas through Earth history. The calculation does not require ionic charge to be known, nor is determination of crystallization temperature, pressure, or parental melt composition required.

“Previous methods include Ce/Ce* and Eu/Eu* oxybarometers, but each has limitations related to temperature, pressure, host rock chemical compositional variations, or precision of REE elements needed to measure the Ce/Ce* and Eu/Eu* anomalies.” Bob Loucks from Western Australia says.  

This improved oxybarometer allows a more confident evaluation of the variation in oxidation state, which can now be interpreted in terms of global tectonic changes with time. By determining the oxidation levels of the magmas that formed these detrital zircons, scientists are able to deduce the onset of crust to mantle recycling, weathering, and the supercontinent cycle.

The key point is that rocks that lay at the Earth's surface can be carried back down to deep in the Earth's mantle (hundreds to thousands of km below the surface. Our data shows that not only has this happening today but could have been going on for billions of years. Looking at zircons from the early Earth, 3-billion-year-old zircons, to those formed today we have found that the redox state of the magmas in which they formed. The oxidation state (expressed as ΔFMQ) of the detrital zircons rise at ~3.5 billion years followed by a consistent average ΔFMQ > 0 over the last 3 billion years, suggesting recycling of oceanic lithosphere back into the mantle in what eventually became established as subduction zones. It shows that the lower limit of redox state dropped dramatically at 2.6 billion years ago, marking the formation of well-defined continents and the burial of oceanic rocks back into the deep mantle of the Earth. Further to that we found a cyclicity of the redox patterns: every 600 million years or so, continents come together to form supercontinents, like Gondwana, Rodinia, Nura, and Superia.

Zircon age histogram and redox variations with the supercontinent amalgamation intervals. 

Formation of a new subduction zone with hot or cold incipient channel



SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

Formation of a new subduction zone with hot or cold incipient channel 

IMAGE: 

COMPARISONS OF DEFINITIONS, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND NATURAL CASES BETWEEN HOT AND COLD SUBDUCTION INITIATION

view more 

CREDIT: ©SCIENCE CHINA PRESS





This study is led by Prof. Zhong-Hai Li (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences). The present solid Earth is actually active, with new plates generating in the mid-ocean ridges and some old plates sinking back into the interior through subduction zones. Subduction is thus a key process of the tectonics and geodynamics of the Earth. However, the formation mechanism of a new subduction zone, i.e. subduction initiation (SI), is widely debated. “Comparing to the long-term mature subduction, its initiation is more like an “instantaneous” process with limited geological records. Furthermore, these records experience erosion and modification by the later subduction. Consequently, the remnant geological records are rare, which plays as a major barrier for the better understanding of subduction initiation process.” Li says.

Geologists tried to decipher the SI process through analyzing the characteristic rock records. The most widely studied, characteristic magmatic record is the forearc rock sequence (forearc basalt – boninite – arc tholeiites) in the Izu-Bonin-Mariana (IBM) subduction zone. In addition, the SSZ-type (Supra-Subduction-Zone) ophiolites, e.g. in the Troodos (Cyprus) and Semail (Oman), have comparable petrological and geochemical characteristics with the IBM forearc sequence. Thus, it is further proposed that the SSZ-ophiolite could be generated during subduction initiation. Another type of geological record for SI is the metamorphic sole, which normally emplaces accompanying with the SSZ-ophiolite. All these magmatic and metamorphic records point to a high temperature and low pressure condition for SI. Then, “the question is whether the occurrence of all the subduction initiation in nature requires such a critical condition with rather high temperature at shallow depths.” Li says.

In the present-day ocean, there are several early-stage subduction zones with differential geological records, for example, the Puysegur subduction zone to the south of New Zealand. This SI process lacks the typical magmatic and metamorphic records. Instead, the geological records include the responses of structural deformation and sedimentary evolution. Similarly, there are a series of young oceanic subduction zones in the western Pacific, e.g. the Negro subduction zone in the Sulu Sea, the north Sulawesi and Cotabato subduction zones in the Celebes Sea. The thermal conditions in these incipient subduction channels should be colder, at least lower than the required temperature for the generation of ophiolite and metamorphic sole.

“It thus indicates that the extremely high temperature condition at shallow depths, for the generation of naturally observed ophiolite and metamorphic sole, only represents the high temperature end-member of subduction initiation, but cannot be used as the diagnostics for all the SI.” Li says and he further proposes two contrasting regimes for subduction initiation, i.e. the hot versus cold end-members, as shown in Figure 1. The hot SI regime is more “traditional”, with the geological records of magmatic and metamorphic rocks which have been regarded as the typical responses of SI and even as the diagnostics for deciphering paleo-SI cases in the orogens. In contrast, the cold SI regime lacks such kind of magmatic and metamorphic records, and thus attracts less attention in observational studies, but does occur for many subduction zones.

“Consequently, the SSZ-ophiolite and metamorphic sole are only the typical records of hot SI, but are not necessarily generated in the cold SI regime. Thus, we cannot use such specific rock records to judge the occurrence of SI or not; instead, multiple geological responses should be combined together to get a full view of this puzzling issue.” Li says.

 

###

See the article:

Hot versus cold subduction initiation

https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwae012

Friday, March 08, 2024

OCEANOGRAPHY

 

Restored coral reefs can grow as fast as healthy reefs


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF EXETER

Reef Stars being installed 

IMAGE: 

REEF STARS ARE INSTALLED IN DEGRADED AREAS TO STABILISE LOOSE RUBBLE AND KICKSTART RAPID CORAL GROWTH

view more 

CREDIT: INDO-PACIFIC FILMS




Planting new coral in degraded reefs can lead to rapid recovery – with restored reefs growing as fast as healthy reefs after just four years, new research shows.

Reefs worldwide are severely threatened by local and global pressures. In Indonesia, where the study was carried out, destructive blast fishing destroyed large reef areas 30-40 years ago – with no signs of recovery until now. 

The Mars Coral Reef Restoration Programme attempts to restore degraded reefs by transplanting coral fragments onto a network of interconnected “Reef Stars” (sand-coated steel frames).

Researchers studied these reefs to assess whether coral restoration can bring back the important ecosystem functions of a healthy reef.

The study was carried out by University of Exeter researchers in collaboration with the Research Center for Oceanography, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) in Indonesia, Mars Sustainable Solutions and Lancaster University.

“The speed of recovery we saw is incredible,” said lead author Dr Ines Lange, from the University of Exeter.

“While reef restoration cannot solve the problem that reefs are severely threatened by climate change, it shows that active management actions can help to boost the resilience of specific reefs, and bring back important functions that are critical for marine life and local communities.”

Exeter researchers developed a method to monitor "reef carbonate budgets" – the net production or erosion of reef framework over time.

These carbonate budgets are a key predictor of the reef’s ability to grow, keep up with sea-level rise, protect coastlines from storms and provide habitat for reef animals.

To evaluate if and how fast these reef functions return after coral restoration, carbonate budgets were measured at Mars reef restoration sites that were restored a few months, one year, two years and four years ago, as well as on degraded and healthy control sites.  

In the years following coral transplantation, coral cover, coral colony sizes and carbonate production rates tripled, and after four years, restoration sites were indistinguishable from nearby healthy reefs in all investigated parameters.

This means that after only four years, restored reefs are growing at the same speed as healthy reefs, provide similar habitat for marine life, and efficiently protect the adjacent island from wave energy and erosion.

However, as transplanted coral fragments are a mix of different branching coral types, the community composition on restoration sites differs from healthy reefs, which also harbour many boulder-like and encrusting corals.

This may affect habitat provision for larger marine species and resilience to future heatwaves, as branching corals are more sensitive to bleaching.

Dr Tim Lamont, from Lancaster University, who initiated the research collaboration, added: “This is a really encouraging discovery.

“If we can maintain climate conditions that allow for coral survival, it’s possible to restore even very damaged reefs back to healthy, functional systems within relatively short periods of time.”

Co-author Dr Tries Razak, from BRIN Indonesia, said: “Through this research collaboration, I am delighted to observe the highly productive partnership between a distinguished group of international scientists and our team of local scientists and Masters students in Indonesia.

“This collaborative effort not only advances scientific research in Indonesia but also contributes significantly to the capacity building for future generations of Indonesian scientists.”

Summing up her experience in Indonesia, Dr Lange added: “It was a great experience to work so closely with a diverse group of international researchers and the skilled local restoration team.

“We all learned a lot from each other.”

The paper “Coral restoration can drive rapid reef carbonate budget recovery” is published in Current Biology by Ines Lange, Tries Razak, Chris Perry, Permas Maulana, Mochyudho Prasetya, Irwan and Timothy Lamont.

Australia's Great Barrier Reef in grip of 'mass bleaching event'

Coral bleaching
Graphic on coral bleaching.

A "mass bleaching event" is unfolding on Australia's famed Great Barrier Reef, authorities said Friday, as warming seas threaten the spectacular home to thousands of marine species.

Often dubbed the world's largest living structure, the Great Barrier Reef is a 2,300 kilometre (1,400 mile) expanse of tropical corals that house a stunning array of biodiversity.

But repeated mass bleaching events have threatened to rob the tourist drawcard of its wonder, turning banks of once-vibrant corals into a sickly shade of white.

"We know the biggest threat to  worldwide is . The Great Barrier Reef is no exception," Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek said in a statement.

"We need to act on climate change. We need to protect our special places and the plants and animals that call them home."

The damaging mass bleaching event—the seventh since 1998—was confirmed by government scientists following aerial surveys of 300 shallow reefs.

The Australian Reef Authority said it would now need to conduct further surveys to assess the severity and extent of bleaching.

Coral bleaching occurs when underwater temperatures are more than 1 degree warmer than the long-term average.

As corals come under , they expel algae living within their tissues—draining them of their vibrant colours.

Another 'mass bleaching event' threatens to rob Australia's Great Barrier Reef of its wonder
Another 'mass bleaching event' threatens to rob Australia's Great Barrier Reef of its wonder.

Ocean temperatures along the Great Barrier Reef have approached record levels in the past few weeks, according to official monitoring.

Richard Leck, head of oceans at World Wildlife Fund Australia, said it was likely that masses of coral would die if ocean temperatures did not cool rapidly in the coming weeks.

"This bleaching event is unfolding in an area where corals have not been previously exposed to these extreme temperatures," he said.

Leck said climate change was "putting tremendous pressure" on the Great Barrier Reef.

The current bleaching event followed similar setbacks in the Northern Hemisphere last year, Leck added, which caused major coral mortality in Florida and the Caribbean.

Some species of bleached coral have proven remarkably resilient and can recover if  cool.

But professor Terry Hughes, one of Australia's foremost coral reef scientists, said bleaching events were now happening so frequently that reefs were struggling to recover.

Heat stress on the Great Barrier Reef is likely to worsen in the coming weeks, a coral reef scientist told AFP
Heat stress on the Great Barrier Reef is likely to worsen in the coming weeks, a coral reef
 scientist told AFP.

Recovery in danger

"The reef is no longer capable of recovering to the mix of coral species and the sizes of corals that were there 20 years ago," he told AFP.

"The irony is that the corals that are now prevalent on most parts of the Great Barrier Reef are fast growing and rapidly regain cover, but the kicker is that they are heat sensitive and are less tolerant to the next inevitable beaching event."

Hughes said the heat stress had increased in the past few days and would likely worsen in the coming two weeks.

The fate of the reef has been a recurrent source of tension between the Australian government and the United Nations' World Heritage Committee.

The World Heritage Committee has threatened to put the reef on a list of "in danger" global heritage sites, a move that would likely damage its allure for international tourists.

Behind-the-scenes diplomacy and fierce lobbying from Australia has so far kept it off the list.

Before this event, Australia's Great Barrier Reef suffered mass  in 1998, 2002, 2016, 2017, 2020 and 2022.

© 2024 AFP


New technique may help scientists stave off coral reef collapse

New technique may help scientists stave off coral reef collapse
The soft-bodied sea anemone does not produce reef-forming rocky skeletons on its own,
 but was induced to produce skeleton creating proteins, turning it into a good model system
 for studying coral reefs. Credit: Brent Foster

In a bit of biological magic, some tiny, jellyfish-like creatures learned eons ago how to weave seawater into durable, life-sustaining, rocky coral reefs, which provide billions in economic benefits.

But the magic is fading. In the face of warming, acidifying oceans,  are at risk of dissolving. Scientists are racing to develop ways to help stave off collapse. But their efforts are hampered by the difficulty of studying delicate  in the lab.

In a first for helping coral polyps respond to these threats, scientists from the University of Florida have recreated the first stage of the coral skeleton creation process in a common, squishy sea anemone. The technique transforms this soft-bodied creature into the perfect lab model for researching coral skeletons and developing ways to bolster coral polyps in a changing climate.

The researchers have published their findings in the journal iScience.

"The whole ecosystem is dying. You can listen to the death all you want, but what are you going to do to fix it?" said Mark Martindale, Ph.D., director of the University of Florida's Whitney Laboratory for Marine Bioscience and supervising researcher on the study. "In order to do that, you need to understand what the problems are. And you need an experimental system to do that. Now we have that system."

New technique may help scientists stave off coral reef collapse
Stony corals like these are at risk in a changing climate, but are difficult to study in the lab.
 An easy-to-use lab system will help scientists study solutions to assist corals. 
Credit: Brent Foster

While coral polyps are reluctant to grow in the lab, the anemone Nematostella vectensis is a breeze to work with. It was the first in the family of jellyfish and corals to have its genome sequenced. Deleting or editing its genes or adding to its genome is straightforward. It has all the hallmarks of a great system for studying coral skeletons—except for the fact that it doesn't produce any skeleton

So, the Martindale lab asked the obvious question: Can we get Nematostella to act like a coral polyp and transform seawater into rock? If so, the anemone could provide a way to test fixes for wild corals.

To find out, the scientists injected Nematostella embryos with a gene from the stony coral Stylophora pistillata known for helping the animal concentrate the calcium that ultimately leads to skeleton formation. In the soft-bodied sea anemone, scientists saw the coral protein gathering up calcium and otherwise acting just as it does in the rocky coral.

Going forward, scientists can alter this gene and the others involved in coral skeleton production, tweaking their way toward creating climate-resilient coral polyps, said Brent Foster, a researcher in the lab and first author of the paper.

New technique may help scientists stave off coral reef collapse
The red fluorescence in this image shows the soft-bodied sea anemone expressing a 
stony coral skeleton producing protein, demonstrating that the sea anemone can be a 
good model system for this vital process. Credit: Brent Foster

The  can be used to study other hard structures as well, even tooth enamel. These processes all fall under the umbrella of biomineralization, in which living creatures create hard structures from minerals like calcium.

"The next step is to understand how cells regulate the microenvironment that promotes biomineralization," said Federica Scucchia, a postdoctoral researcher in Martindale's lab and co-author of the report.

The Whitney Laboratory team collaborated with scientists at the Institute of Human Genetics in Montpelier, France, Cornell University and Cardiff University to complete the study.

More information: Brent Foster et al, A novel in vivo system to study coral biomineralization in the starlet sea anemone, Nematostella vectensis, iScience (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109131


The Silent Extinction Threat To Deepwater Sharks And Rays

A groundbreaking global study has shed light on the precarious situation facing deepwater sharks and rays. Led by a team of experts from around the world, the study reveals alarming statistics: one in seven deepwater sharks and rays are on the brink of extinction, according to the criteria set by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species.

The primary threat to these deepwater giants is one similar to their shallow-water counterparts: overfishing, particularly as unintended victims of commercial fisheries targeting other species. Their meat and liver oil are prized commodities, driving a global trade that is pushing these creatures to the edge of oblivion. What makes deepwater sharks and rays particularly vulnerable is their unique biology. Spending most of their lives in the dark depths, these creatures have evolved to endure the harsh conditions of the abyss. However, their long lifespans and slow reproductive rates make them highly susceptible to overexploitation. “Many deepwater sharks and rays can only withstand very small amounts of fishing pressure”, said Dr. Nicholas Dulvy, Professor at Simon Fraser University. “Some species may take 30 years or more to mature, and possibly up to 150 years in the case of the Greenland Shark. Some only produce 12 pups throughout their entire life. Because of their relatively large size and widespread distribution, deepwater sharks and rays play a vital ecological role, concentrating and dispersing nutrients throughout deep ocean habitats.”

Dr. Rima Jabado, Deputy Chair of the IUCN Species Survival Commission and Chair of the IUCN SSC Shark Specialist Group, stresses the urgent need for action: “Our results highlight that it is time to think about regulating liver oil trade. There has been enormous success in regulating the shark fin trade but trade and fishing regulations specific to deepwater sharks and rays are urgently needed. [...] Deepwater sharks and rays have been out of sight, out of mind for too long. Now is the time to take action to prevent further endangerment.” Jabado urges for specific regulations tailored to protect these creatures, including national protections, fishing regulations, and listing species under international trade agreements like CITES.



Greenland sharks often end up as bycatch on fishing vessels, and can be considered a nuisance.
JULIUS NIELSEN

Shockingly, this study indicates that approximately 14.1% of these deep-sea dwellers face an elevated risk of extinction on a global scale. Among the 521 species scrutinized, a concerning 60 (11.5%) are currently identified as threatened, comprising nine (1.7%) Critically Endangered, 20 (3.8%) Endangered, and 31 (6.0%) Vulnerable species. This level of extinction risk represents a stark increase compared to the previous assessment conducted in 2014, more than doubling the reported threatened species count. Notably, deepwater sharks demonstrate a particularly dire situation, with 15.2% (43 of 283 species) classified as threatened, compared to deepwater rays at 7.1% (17 of 238 species). Despite the absence of species flagged as Possibly Extinct or assessed as globally Extinct or Extinct in the Wild, the phenomenon of "commercial extinction" poses a substantial threat, particularly observed among gulper sharks in regions of intense targeted fishing. Nevertheless, a significant portion of species (62.0%, n = 323) remain classified as Least Concern, while 43 species (8.3%) hover dangerously close to the brink, designated as Near Threatened. The authors believe these findings underscore the urgent need for concerted conservation efforts to safeguard the future of deepwater sharks and rays, whose decline could have profound implications for marine ecosystems worldwide. While deepwater sharks and rays are often forgotten about, their importance extends far beyond their formidable presence in the punishing depths of our ocean. These creatures play a vital ecological role, dispersing nutrients and maintaining the delicate balance of deep ocean habitats.

The researchers also explored two strategic approaches aimed at halting and reversing the declines observed among threatened deepwater sharks and rays, aligning with the Convention on Biological Diversity's "30 by 30" framework of spatial protection commitments. The first approach evaluates the advantages of implementing a global depth limit, restricting fishing activities below a designated depth (referred to as vertical refuge). The second approach assesses the benefits of establishing spatial no-take areas (referred to as horizontal refuge). A worldwide prohibition of fishing beyond 800 meters would offer 30% vertical refuge, safeguarding approximately one-third (27.4%) of threatened species. Alternatively, setting a shallower 500-meter no-fishing limit would effectively double the protection coverage, encompassing 60.8% of species. Protecting 30% of the deep ocean between 200 and 2000 meters would extend spatial (horizontal) protection to approximately 80% of species, spanning their ranges. Notable regions with significant coverage include the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, Eastern Pacific (from western United States to Peru), Iberian Peninsula, southern Mediterranean Sea, Gulf of Aden, west India and Chagos-Laccadive Ridge, Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk, and the Zealandia continent.

“Trade and fishing regulations specific to deepwater sharks and rays are needed to ensure legal, traceable, and sustainable trade and prevent further endangerment,” the team concludes. “We have the evidence to act more proactively for the deep ocean and learn from the mistakes that have driven more than half of coastal and pelagic species to be threatened. Achieving sustainable fisheries for most deepwater sharks and rays would be challenging and require high management capacity, ecological knowledge, and implementation of routine rigorous monitoring. [However,] effective precautionary actions are needed to ensure that the largest ecosystem on the planet maintains its biodiversity and that half of the world’s shark and ray species have refuge from the global extinction crisis.”

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedInCheck out my website

Known as the "Mother of Sharks," I'm a Latina marine biologist who has a lot of labels: science communicator, conservationist, author, educator, podcaster, television presenter. You might have seen me on Discovery Channel's Shark Week, National Geographic, BBC Wildlife, heard my TEDx talk or read my Scholastic books.


I write about sharks, the diverse people who work with them, and why both matter. As founder of The Fins United Initiative, a program that teaches audiences shark conservation and education, I find it vital that we learn to co-exist with these oceanic predators. That's why I do all that I do, and why my PhD (and outreach) revolves around human-shark interactions.


Mass die-offs among farmed salmon on the rise around the world

By Matt McGrath,
BBC
Environment correspondent
Share
Getty Images

Hundreds of millions of farmed salmon have perished in mass die-offs over the past decade, say researchers.

The scientists say that large-scale mortalities are now happening more frequently and at a larger scale than ever before.

They argue that warmer seas and greater reliance on technology are contributing to the rise in deaths.

This global assessment looked at salmon deaths in some leading producers, including Norway, the UK and Canada.

Salmon farming has come a long way since the fish were first grown commercially in cages in Norway in the 1960s. The industry has expanded rapidly in recent decades, with around 70% of salmon eaten around the world now coming from farms.

But the aquaculture industry has long been controversial - with significant worries over disease among the fish, escapes to the wild and the overall environmental impact of raising them in cages.

Major mortality events, involving the sudden deaths of millions of fish have been well documented, sometimes caused by disease outbreaks but also linked to warmer seas resulting from climate change.

In Scotland last year, government data shows that more than 17 million salmon died, the most ever recorded. Producers blamed hotter oceans for the losses.
Getty ImagesTechnology is increasingly being used to monitor salmon, leading to greater risks according to scientists


Other countries have experienced even greater mortality. Norway says close to 17% of their farmed fish died suddenly in 2023.

To shed some light on these deaths, researchers looked at data from countries producing 92% of farmed salmon over the past decade.

The scientists found 865 million instances of farmed salmon dying prematurely during this period.

They found that the frequency of the biggest die-offs was rising over time for Norway, Canada and the UK.
Getty ImagesNorway has suffered significant losses from major salmon mortality events


Not only were they increasing in frequency, the authors said, the die-offs were also getting bigger.

The authors estimate that the potential maximum losses for any single mass mortality event are 5.14 million fish in Norway, 5.05 million in Canada and more than one million in the UK.

A warming climate is playing a role say the authors - but so is the growing reliance on technology like underwater cameras and AI.

"An increasingly variable ocean environment, largely from climate change, may mean more production sites will be exposed to these events more often," said Dr Gerald Singh from the University of Victoria in Canada, the study's lead author.

"In addition, production practices, and technology that is increasingly pushing production into riskier conditions and allowing for greater production per site may expose larger and larger populations of fish to conditions that cause mortalities."

The authors say that technology such as remote, real-time monitoring of fish farms can help justify placing them in sites farther offshore.

Getty ImagesA major salmon die off in Chile due to algae

However, being further offshore may increase the threats and reduce the chances of operators spotting them early. So the increased reliance on the technology actually leads to greater risks for the fish.

Campaigners against salmon farming say this new study is "alarming" and underlines the fact that human decisions as well as warmer oceans are playing a role in the discomfort suffered by the fish.

"Mortality is only one of many grave welfare concerns for farmed salmon," said Kirsty Jenkins, a policy officer at campaigners OneKind.


"They are plagued by sea lice and disease, suffer from stressful handling and treatments, and live a monotonous life in barren, crowded cages."

"The industry has shown itself to be incapable of, or unwilling to, reform, and it must be questioned if salmon farming has any place in a compassionate and sustainable food system."

Some experts wonder if the industry can survive the increasing frequency of these mass die-offs in major production centres.

Dr Singh believes that aquaculture will continue globally, but that mass die-offs with huge clean-up costs might threaten future operations in many communities.

"It's probably unlikely that these events will negate or counter food production at an aggregate global level," he told BBC News.


"Instead, these events can have considerable local effects, especially considering welfare of coastal communities and for workers."

The study has been published in the journal Scientific Reports.


Agriculture: Increasing frequency and scale of mass mortality events among farmed salmon since 2012


Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS




The frequency and scale of mass mortality events — events where large numbers of organisms die in short periods of time — among farmed salmon have increased since 2012, according to a study published in Scientific Reports.

Gerald Singh and colleagues analysed salmon mortality data from Norway, Canada, the UK, Chile, Australia, New Zealand — countries that produced over 92% of the world’s farmed salmon in 2021 — between 2012 and 2022. They identified 865 million instances of salmon mortality during this period and found that both the frequency of the top 10% highest mortality events and the maximum number of fish killed in mass mortality events within Norway, Canada, and the UK increased throughout the decade. The authors estimate that the potential maximum losses for a single mass mortality event are 5.14 million fish in Norway, 5.05 million in Canada, and over one million in the UK. They estimate that the potential maximum annual losses from mass mortality events are 8.19 million fish in Chile, 4.39 million in New Zealand, and 1.55 million in Australia.

The authors speculate that increases in the frequency and scale of mass mortality events among farmed salmon may increase with the adoption of technologies and production practices aimed at intensifying salmon production in combination with increases in the variability of ocean environments due to climate change. Examples of such technologies include using artificial intelligence and cameras to monitor fish and identify potential disease outbreaks, and conducting salmon farming in offshore or exposed sites. They suggest that while new technologies and practices intend to reduce risks for salmon farming, they may also justify production in settings that could potentially expose greater numbers of fish to hazards that can contribute to mass mortality events. In addition to the deaths of large numbers of fish, the authors caution that mass mortality events may have negative consequences for the salmon farming industry and the communities that depend on it.