Saturday, October 30, 2021

Project Pele: Why the DoD is Betting on Tiny Nuclear Reactors to Solve Its Power Woes

By Jessica Hall on October 29, 2021



In 2019, the government signed a declaration mandating that we develop an itty bitty nuclear reactor by 2027. In compliance with that order, the US Air Force is launching a “microreactor” pilot project at Eielson AFB, in Alaska.


Per usual, the Air Force is playing its cards pretty close to the chest. As of October 27, the Office of Energy Assurance (OEA) hasn’t even announced that they’ve chosen a specific reactor technology. But all evidence suggests that this new installation is part of an energy-resilience effort known as Project Pele. The goal of Project Pele, according to the Dept. of Defense’s Research and Engineering office, is to “design, build, and demonstrate a prototype mobile nuclear reactor within five years.” Three separate development contracts have been awarded, with the final “mature” design submissions TBA.

Project Pele has two main themes: the reactor has to be 1) small, and 2) safe. What we’ve learned from Chernobyl and Fukushima is that failure of the coolant system can have terrible consequences, and in both cases, power failure to the cooling system is what allowed the fuel to become so hot that it entered meltdown. Failure is simply unacceptable. With nuclear power, we also have to consider decay heat and spent fuel disposal. Inability to dispose of hazardous byproducts counts as being unsafe. Even worse, the same stuff we use to make the power can be used to make weapons. But the new Generation IV reactors can further the conversation.

Without getting all breathless, I want to talk about one of the three designs likely being put forth in particular. One of the commercial contractors chosen to submit a design is a domestic outfit called X-Energy, whose higher-ups come from NASA and the US Department of Energy. Its CEO, Jeffrey Sells, previously served as Deputy Secretary of Energy, and founder Kam Ghaffarian operated a NASA service contractor that supported the former Mission Operations Data Systems at Goddard. The X-energy model is a Gen IV high-temperature gas-cooled pebble bed reactor. It uses TRISO fuel pellets or “pebbles” (TRISO stands for TRi-structural ISOtropic particle fuel) loaded into a column that’s then flooded with a heavy, nonreactive gas. And the whole thing is absolutely tiny: X-energy’s website describes their reactors not as building sites, but as modular products, shippable using existing road and rail.


The pebble-bed model used by X-Energy is clearly meant to specifically address many known failure points of nuclear power production. Whether it actually delivers on that promise is yet to be seen, because this is all still in the planning stages, but the design principles are there. First and worst is meltdown, which X-Energy is mitigating via the composition of the fuel itself. The TRISO pebbles are made of granules of uranium oxycarbide the size of poppyseeds, layered with pyrolytic graphite and embedded within a silicon carbide firebreak. The whole thing is the size of a cue ball.

Silicon carbide is what NASA uses in the heat shielding for numerous spacecraft. It’s tough stuff, very strong under pressure, and very difficult to melt. Carbides aren’t melted and cast like regular metals, because their melt points are higher than any other metal. Instead, uranium oxycarbide is created using spark plasma sintering. TRISO pebbles are also passively governed by a negative-feedback mechanism that starves the fuel of neutrons as the temperature rises, independent of any active or mechanical control. Higher temperatures mean falling reaction power, enforced by the nature of the material itself. It’s hard to have a meltdown if your fuel just… won’t melt.

Explosions also present their own set of dangers, including particulate from burning fissile material or graphite shielding. In this design, the reaction is held at temperatures far above the annealing point of graphite. This prevents stray potential energy from neutron bombardment from getting “stuck” in the graphite’s crystal lattice and eventually escaping in an uncontrolled burst, which is what happened in the Windscale fire. Pyrolytic carbon can burn in air if it’s also in the presence of enough water to catalyze the reaction, but there is no water-cooling loop, which prevents a steam explosion.

The use of uranium oxycarbide instead of uranium oxide or carbide is intended to reduce the oxygen stoichiometry; carbides are strong under pressure but not under expansion, so the oxycarbide should produce less gas under decomposition. That means that even if one of the carbide pebbles should rupture, smothered in the heavier-than-air gas, it won’t catch fire. The coolant never leaves the gas phase. The design relies on simply placing a critical mass of fissile material inside a gas-cooled reaction vessel, where it will go critical on its own. They’re just sitting a bunch of angry jawbreakers in the bottom of a tank, where they irritate one another into producing energy. Instead of shutting down to replace fuel rods, in pebble bed reactors, at regular intervals a pebble is collected from the bottom of the container by way of gravity, tested, and recycled to the top of the column.


Look at it. It’s the worst Gobstopper.


Once fully operational, the reactor will produce between one and five megawatts. That’s quite small for any power plant, and even more so for a nuclear plant — nuclear plants are often rated in the hundreds of megawatts or even the gigawatt range. At five megawatts it still barely clears a third of the Eielson base’s gross energy budget. But the micro-reactor isn’t being installed so that it can handle the base’s power consumption. This is a proof of concept, for both a reactor design that fails toward safety, and a portable source of radiant energy that doesn’t require a constant external material supply.

One serious weak spot this reactor could address is the way the armed forces get power in the field. For example, in Iraq and Afghanistan, the military used fuel convoys to truck in diesel to their installations, which ran on diesel generators. But generators are loud, dirty, expensive, and prone to breakdowns. They are also a hazard to human health: fuel-burning generators produce dangerous fumes and super-fine particulate. Furthermore, the convoys themselves were low-hanging fruit for insurgent attacks. All of this requires maintenance and lots of security. Much of the reason Eielson was chosen over any other site comes down to its reliance on fossil fuels that have to be transported in, like coal and diesel. The armed forces have a direct strategic interest in weaning their operations off petroleum fuels, to the extent they can.

What benefits the military, though, often ends up also improving civilian lives. Eielson AFB is only about a hundred miles south of the Arctic Circle. During the heating season, the base can burn 800 tons of coal every day. Like much of Alaska, it is beholden to energy supply lines prone to failure exactly when they’re most needed. Most of the state uses coal or diesel to provide electricity and heating. Much of Alaska is also only accessible by boat or plane. Juneau doesn’t even have a road connecting it to the outside world, because the terrain is so uncooperative. One failure point can easily line up with another. Eielson’s northerly location, along with its inexhaustible need for fuel, make it an excellent sandbox (snowbank?) for field testing the microreactor. Greater Alaska is also keenly interested: According to the Anchorage Daily News, “a cost-effective 1-5 MW power generator that doesn’t require refueling could represent a sea change for rural power in our state, as that range covers the needs of dozens of villages off the road system that currently have some of the most costly power in the state — and which are vulnerable to generator breakdowns in the dead of winter, when the consequences can be life-threatening.”

The issue of waste disposal remains unresolved. Shiny and chrome though these pebbles may be, they still embody about the same radioactivity per kilowatt hour as spent conventional fuel — it’s just spread across a larger volume. While this makes any generated waste hypothetically less awful to handle, there’s more of it, and that complicates the already manifold problems with waste handling and storage.

Final designs are to be chosen in fiscal 2022. From there, the DOD wants a reactor up and running by 2027.

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Construction licence issued for Akkuyu 4

29 October 2021

Construction of Turkey's fourth nuclear power reactor will start at the beginning of 2022, after the project was granted a construction licence by the country's Nuclear Regulatory Authority. Akkuyu will become the largest nuclear construction site in the world, Rosatom said.

Akkuyu 1 rises at the construction site (Image: Akkuyu Nuclear)

"At the beginning of next year, we will start building the foundation slab of the nuclear island buildings,” said Anastasia Zoteeva, director general of Akkuyu Nuclear, the project company executing the four-reactor power plant.

Preparatory work, including engineering surveys and excavation of over 650 square metres, have already been carried out on the basis of a limited construction permit issued in June. "By the end of this year," Rosatom said, "the construction of the concrete base of the foundation slabs of the reactor and turbine buildings is expected to start. The foundation slabs will then be reinforced." The plant will then be ready for the official start of construction, which is the pouring of first safety-related concrete, the foundation slab.

Akkuyu is a new nuclear power plant on Turkey's Mediterranean coast. It has three VVER-1200 reactors designed by Rosatom subsidiary Gidropress already under construction, as well as the fourth about to begin. The first unit is scheduled to generate power in 2023, subject to further approvals from the Nuclear Regulatory Authority.

Pictures from last week show Akkuyu 1 rising to a height of 36 metres with the placement of its fourth inner containment ring. This is the last cylindrical segment. It will support the reactor's polar crane and will be finally capped with a dome after all major components such as the reactor pressure vessel and steam generators are installed inside.

With the construction of unit 4, Akkuyu will become the largest nuclear construction site in the world, Rosatom said, with four large reactors under construction at the same time. "Simultaneous construction of four power units of the nuclear power plant will require a high concentration of resources, but we are fully prepared for this", Sergei Butckikh, the first deputy CEO of Akkuyu Nuclear, said in August. Some 12,000 people currently work at the site, which features more than 70 cranes.

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Nuclear to power remote gold mine


Nuclear power is the required energy source for development of the Russian gold deposit at Kyuchus, the country's minister of natural resources and the environment, Alexander Kozlov made clear as the deposit's development rights were auctioned. The small reactor planned for Ust-Kuyga will supply the mine.

How a power plant based on RITM-200 technology could appear (Image: Rusatom Overseas)

"It is important that for the first time, one of the special conditions of the auction spelled out the use of at least 35 MWe of nuclear electricity, to be supplied by a small nuclear power plant in Yakutia," said Kozlov.

The small nuclear power plant in question is planned for construction at Ust-Kuyga. It will produce about 55 MWe from a single RITM-200N reactor. The regional government has agreed to take up to 50 MWe of the plant's production, with 35 MWe of this apparently being sold on to the mining operation. A licence for construction is expected to be issued in 2024.

There is virtually no infrastructure in the area of Kyuchus. The ministry said nuclear power "will make it possible not only to develop the field, but also to provide energy to the nearby territories. According to the auction conditions, no later than 30 June 2028, the winner of the auction must start using nuclear power, which must be supplied by the small nuclear power plant in the Yakutia region. In addition, the winner is obliged to ensure the level of production of at least 10 tons of gold per year from the date of reaching the design capacity."

A company called Beloye Zoloto won the auction, paying RUB7.7 billion (USD107.7 million) as a one-time payment for subsurface resources at Kyuchus, which are estimated to be as much as 250 tons of gold. Among the unsuccessful bidders were uranium miners Atomredmetzoloto and the Priargunsky Industrial Mining and Chemical Combine.

Separately, the development of another large mineral deposit in the Russian Arctic is also being supported by small nuclear reactors. Baimskaya is a copper and gold project in the Chukotka region which will be powered by two floating power plants at Cape Nagloynyn, each with two RITM-200M units, from 2027.

Researched and written by World Nuclear News

Westinghouse micro-reactor feasible option for Canada, study finds

27 October 2021


The eVinci micro-reactor can provide necessary, clean and cost-competitive energy to decentralised, off-grid markets in Canada, a feasibility report prepared by Bruce Power and Westinghouse has found.

The eVinci heat-pipe reactor is described as a "small battery" in the report (Image: Westinghouse)

The report comes a year after the two companies agreed to explore applications of Westinghouse's eVinci technology programme within Canada. A 12-page executive summary, providing a market overview of opportunities for the deployment of the reactor in Canada, its benefits and opportunities, has been shared by the companies. The document also considers the key federal, provincial, and territorial policy and regulatory enablers needed for its deployment.

The eVinci micro-reactor is described in the report as a "small battery" for decentralised generation markets and for micro grids, such as remote communities, remote industrial mines and critical infrastructure. The nominal 5 MWe heat pipe reactor, which has a heat capability of 14 MWt, features a design that Westinghouse says provides competitive and resilient power as well as superior reliability with minimal maintenance. It is small enough to allow for standard transportation methods, making it perfectly suited for remote locations and rapid, on-site deployment. These features, the company says, make it a viable option for mines and remote and off-grid communities.

A single eVinci micro-reactor is expected to be between 14% and 44% more economic than a diesel generator, depending upon the price of diesel fuel and the price for carbon, and in mining scenarios, such a unit - with diesel back-up - could reduce carbon emissions by about 90%, the report notes in its key takeaways.

Successful deployment would depend on achieving a regulatory model that considers the unit's size and has a predictable outcome, to reduce risk to operations at the host site, it finds. Westinghouse applied in February 2018 to the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission for a pre-licensing vendor design review of the eVinci. The report estimates that the first commercial unit in Canada "should be licensed within three years," but adds that broad public and host community acceptance will be essential to reactor deployment.

The study concludes that the eVinci micro-reactor represents a "feasible alternative" to diesel generation at mines and in remote communities, where it can provide opportunities to reduce or eliminate dependence on expensive diesel generation with a more economic option that also reduces emissions. The reduced cost electricity and heating provided by the reactor can also provide opportunities for economic growth.

"The strong partnership between Bruce Power and Westinghouse has set the stage for the deployment of a leading eVinci micro-reactor programme within Canada, to provide a reliable source of carbon-free energy in grid-edge and off-grid communities," it says. "These efforts support actions by the federal and provincial governments to study applications for nuclear technology to reach their goal of a net-zero Canada by 2050."

Mike Shaqqo, senior vice president for advanced reactors at Westinghouse, said the Canadian government's Small Modular Reactor Roadmap had set out the opportunity for nuclear energy to support the country’s decarbonisation goals in remote, off-grid communities. "The feasibility study shows the unique features and advantages of eVinci micro-reactor make it the right solution, including a small footprint, mobility, flexibility, lifespan and cost," he said.

"The nuclear industry is a leader in addressing global challenges, and Bruce Power is committed to decarbonising our economy and helping Canada achieve net-zero emissions by 2050," said Heather Kleb, director of next generation nuclear technology at Bruce Power. "Nuclear energy is a clean, reliable source of baseload power, and the industry is evolving further with new technologies, such as the eVinci micro reactor, that will expand its clean energy impact."


New Brunswick fast reactor operational 'within the decade'

07 October 2021

A 2029 start-up for an ARC-100 advanced small modular reactor in New Brunswick is an "aggressive" but achievable target, the CEO of ARC Clean Energy Canada said yesterday. Bill Labbe was speaking at an event hosted by the Organization of Canadian Nuclear Industries (OCNI), held as the company prepares to begin the second phase of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission's Vendor Design Review (VDR) process.

ARC, along with NB Power and Moltex Energy, is part of an SMR vendor 'cluster' established in New Brunswick in 2020 with the aim of establishing an SMR supply chain in the province and deploying SMRs at NB Power's existing Point Lepreau site, which is currently home to a 660 MWe (net) Candu 6 reactor. The Government of New Brunswick earlier this year announced CAD20 million (USD16 million) in funding towards the advancement of the ARC-100 sodium-cooled fast reactor. The Government of Canada has also this year announced funding to advance the design of Moltex's Stable Salt Reactor - Wasteburner and WAste to Stable Salt (WATSS) facility, and has also announced funding for NB Power to prepare the Point Lepreau site for SMR deployment and demonstration, and to the University of New Brunswick to expand its capacity to support SMR technology development.

Also speaking at the OCNI event were Andy Hayward, director of advanced reactor development at NB Power, and Bill Cooper, vice-president of engineering at ARC, as well as New Brunswick Minister of Natural Resources and Energy Development Mike Holland. The event was chaired by OCNI President and CEO Ron Oberth.

The ARC-100 is a 100 MWe fast reactor that leverages proven technology developed at the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR II) sodium-cooled fast-reactor, which was developed at the US government's Argonne National Laboratory where it operated successfully for thirty years. The inherent safety characteristics and passive safety features of this design have already been proven, Hayward said. Currently, activities are focusing on preliminary design work, the VDR process, and development and preparation work at Point Lepreau, as well as progressing supply chain activities and First Nations and public engagement.

The timeline for ARC-100 commercialisation has been "accelerating", Labbe said. The first - Scoping - phase was completed in 2019; the second phase - Preliminary Design, which includes the second VDR phase, the completion of preliminary design work, validation of cost estimates and integrated schedule, as well as scoping fuel supply and manufacturing capabilities - is now under way and is expected to be completed by the end of 2023. Phase 3, which will include completion of the detailed engineering, procurement orders, construction permit licensing and approval, site preparation work and the execution of a construction contract, is scheduled to run until 2026.

The final - deployment - phase will run from 2027-2030, according to the timeline, and the company expects the first core to be delivered on site by the end of 2028, Labbe said. "I haven't seen anything in our schedule yet that moves us beyond [a 2029 operational date]", he added. "It's really coming down to a resource constraint at this point. Those are the types of things that we can manage."

"The other part is the regulatory approval. We need to have good quality documents, good discussions, good interface with regulatory agencies, and we need to make sure we provide them with everything that they need so that they can make decisions in a timely manner. That's a piece that's a little bit out of our control, but we can certainly set that stage very well with what we deliver, and that will enable our schedule to progress."

"We are in an envious position in New Brunswick, with the support of the New Brunswick government, a utility that has a long history of operating nuclear power plants, and a technology that's very mature and well proven," Cooper said. "This is an exciting time for SMRs and we don't have any obstacles in front of us that we can't get through to have one of these units up and running within the decade."

Researched and written by World Nuclear News


Vale receives notice from SEC ahead of potential probe
Reuters | October 28, 2021 |

Vale’s tailings dam failure on Jan. 25, 2019, killed 270. 
(Image courtesy of Vinícius Mendonça | Ibama)

Brazilian miner Vale said on Thursday it has received a formal notice from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission regarding a potential probe of the company.


The SEC investigation would try to find evidence of “misconduct” related to public disclosures after a dam disaster in the town of Brumadinho, which killed 270 people in January 2019.

The so-called Wells notice received by Vale does not mean charges will be brought against the miner, the filing said.

“The notice gives Vale the opportunity to provide its point of view and address the issues raised by the SEC staff before the SEC makes any decision about authorizing proceedings to begin,” Vale said.

Shares in the miner fell 0.4% in mid-morning trading while Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa index rose 0.4%.

Vale to receive binding offers for coal business
MINING.COM Staff Writer | October 29, 2021 | 8:28 am Top Companies Latin America Coal

Stockyard at Moatize coal mine, Mozambique. (Image courtesy of Vale)

Vale expects to receive binding offers for its coal business in early November, an executive said on Friday, as it aims to completely exit the sector and has decided to divest of its Moatize asset even before it reaches goals projected in the firm’s business plan.


“We have already received some indicative proposals to sell the business. Now we expect to receive binding offers in early November,” Vale’s Finance VP Luciano Siani said during a conference call.

Vale signed a deal to acquire Mitsui& Co’s stake in the Moatize metallurgical and thermal coal mine and port project in Mozambique in April.

Moatize is Vale’s largest venture in the coal sector, and has been operational since 2011. The complex has a capacity of 22 million tonnes of coal a year, including metallurgical and thermal types.

In 2017, Mitsui paid $690 million for its interest in the mine.
What are carbon credits? How fighting climate change became a billion-dollar industry

Companies seeking to offset their greenhouse gas emissions have turned to carbon credits, worrying some environmentalists who say they are doing little to slow climate change.

Smoke billows from U.S. Steel Edgar Thomson Works on Jan. 21, 2020, in North Braddock, Pa.
Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images file


Oct. 30, 2021

By Lucas Thompson and Leticia Miranda

As governments pressure the private sector to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the world’s largest companies have turned to a financial product to offset their environmental footprints — carbon credits.

It’s a hot market, hitting all-time highs in volume and on track to be worth $1 billion in 2021, according to Ecosystem Marketplace, a market publication run by the environmental finance research nonprofit Forest Trends. And just ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference starting Sunday, the U.N. Environment Programme issued a report that said carbon markets could “help slash emissions” with clearly defined rules and transparency.

But why are carbon credits important? And why does it matter whether they’re used or not?

What is a carbon credit?


A carbon credit is a kind of permit that represents 1 ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere. They can be purchased by an individual or, more commonly, a company to make up for carbon dioxide emissions that come from industrial production, delivery vehicles or travel.

Carbon credits are most often created through agricultural or forestry practices, although a credit can be made by nearly any project that reduces, avoids, destroys or captures emissions. Individuals or companies looking to offset their own greenhouse gas emissions can buy those credits through a middleman or those directly capturing the carbon. In the case of a farmer that plants trees, the landowner gets money; the corporation pays to offset their emissions; and the middleman, if there is one, can earn a profit along the way.

But this only goes for what is called the “voluntary market.” There is also something called the involuntary or “compliance market.”

What is the “compliance market” for carbon credits?


In the compliance market, or involuntary market, governments set a cap on how many tons of emissions certain sectors — oil, transportation, energy or waste management — can release.

If an oil company, for example, goes over the prescribed emissions limit, it must buy or use saved credits to stay under the emissions cap. If a company stays under that cap, it can save or sell those credits. This is known as a cap-and-trade market. The cap is the amount of greenhouse gases a government will allow to be released into the atmosphere and emitters must trade to stay within that limit.


Greta Thunberg says U.S. ‘not really treating the climate crisis as an emergency
OCT. 29, 2021 01:29

Article 6 of the 2015 Paris Agreement tasks national leaders with figuring this out on a global scale. So far, about 64 carbon compliance markets are now in operation around the world, the World Bank reported in May. The largest carbon compliance markets are in the European Union, China, Australia and Canada.

While politicians and business executives have discussed putting a price on carbon, the U.S. does not have a federal, wide-ranging cap-and-trade market for greenhouse gases.

Regulators, businesses and environmentalists have debated globalizing a cap-and-trade market for carbon. But it is challenging to agree on a common time frame, common price, common measurement and transparency, said Alok Sharma, president of this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference, also called COP26.
How big is the carbon credit market?


The voluntary market is on track to reach a record of $6.7 billion at the end of 2021, according to a September report from Ecosystem Marketplace. Currently, traders in the European compliance market project carbon prices to increase 88 percent to about $67 per metric ton by 2030, according to a survey released in June by the International Emissions Trading Association.

The voluntary market’s rapid acceleration over the course of the year is largely driven by recent corporate net-zero goals and interest in meeting international climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels.

What is the pushback?


Critics of the voluntary market, where a company buys carbon credits from a business outside of a regulated exchange, point out that this does not lower the overall amount of greenhouse gases released by buyers. They are simply offset, which gives corporations a way to claim they are eco-friendly without reducing their overall emissions. Critics call this “greenwashing.”

Carbon credits can also be bought from projects that would have happened anyway. For instance, one investment company says they pay farmers to convert their fields into forests and sell those credits to corporations, according to Bloomberg. But several farmers claim they already planted trees through a government conservation program.

Also, some of these carbon credits through these projects are not permanent. For instance, the international soccer governing body FIFA bought credits to help offset emissions from the World Cup in Brazil. But soon after, the trees were cut down. The project was suspended in 2018 after more trees were logged than all the credits sold.

What regulations or oversight does this market have?


The voluntary market operates largely unchecked by federal or local regulators.

Because the voluntary market does not have a cap on how many tons of emissions can be offset, the driving oversight is a set of standards. There are a few respected standards organizations that validate carbon credits.

Verra, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit group founded in 2007 by environmental and business leaders to improve quality assurance in voluntary carbon markets, has set the most widely used standard to validate those credits, called the Verified Carbon Standard. Since the organization’s launch, it has registered 1,750 projects around the world and verified almost 796 million carbon units.

The three main things that make up the Verra Carbon Standard are: accounting methodologies specific to the project type, independent auditing and a registry system. This is to “make sure that both the buyer has confidence that they’re buying something that is actually legit, and that the sellers themselves have something valuable,” Verra CEO David Antonioli told NBC News.

Still the firm supports accountability in the market space, he said.

“[If the voluntary market] is going to be effective at helping achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement, it is going to have to complement … either government action, or individual, or company internal reductions,” Antonioli said. “We want actual solutions here. And if someone’s just offsetting, that’s no good … we don’t support that.”
What is the U.S. government doing about carbon credits?


The U.S. Department of Agriculture has not adopted or set its own standards for carbon credits. But it does finance carbon capturing projects and publishes data to help agricultural businesses capitalize on the market.

“We need to scale up … with the recognition that there’s going to be a lot of private investment,” said Robert Bonnie, the senior climate adviser to the USDA secretary. “We don’t want to displace that investment. We want to, in essence, sort of encourage it to come in.”

The USDA recently jump-started federal carbon credit regulation with a proposed climate partnership initiative, which would fund conservation projects on working land and quantify the carbon and sustainability benefits that come as a result of those projects.

The Growing Solutions Act, which is waiting to be heard in the House, would help farmers, ranchers and foresters learn about carbon markets and sell carbon credits through a third-party certification process overseen by the USDA.

The Environmental Protection Agency currently runs an acid rain program, which cuts emissions of sulfur dioxide by setting a similar cap-and-trade program. Under this program, emitters of sulfur dioxide can sell or save excess sulfur dioxide permits if they reduce emissions and have more than they need, or buy permits if they are unable to keep emissions below the determined level.
Are states creating any kind of market for carbon trading?


California is the only state with a state cap-and-trade market for carbon. By 2030, the state aims to lower emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels. About 450 entities targeted by the market must deliver an overall 15 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to the ”business-as-usual” scenario in 2020. Companies covered by the state law can purchase a certain percentage of carbon credits to stay under the emissions cap. California carbon credits are expected to increase by about 66 percent to $41 by 2030, according to the International Emissions Trading Association.

Aside from California, Oregon considered a bill this year that would limit emissions from regulated sectors to reach a 45 percent reduction from 1990 levels by 2035, and an 80 percent reduction below 1990 levels by 2050.

Washington recently passed a law this year that puts a limit on the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted and then auction off allowances to certain highly pollutive sectors until that cap is reached. The state’s goal is to reduce emissions by 95 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. Each year until then, the cap will be reduced allowing total emissions to fall. The program’s first compliance period will begin in 2023.
COP26 will be a colossal mining cop-out
Frik Els | October 28, 2021 |

Copper ore. Image: Glencore

“The International Energy Agency’s annual World Energy Outlook [..] is probably the closest thing to a bible in the energy world,” says a Bloomberg article following the publication of the 2021 edition.


Released earlier than usual in time for the Conference of Parties (COP26) starting in Glasgow next week, this edition – the 44th – “has been designed, exceptionally, as a guidebook to COP26”.

At 386 pages IEA WEO 2021 is quite the tome (download here). Under Section 6.3.1, you’ll find the energy bible’s take on “critical minerals”. It is six pages in total.


Those six pages may be headlined critical minerals, but it’s hard to detect a sense of urgency in Section 6.3.1:


“The rapid deployment of low-carbon technologies as part of clean energy transitions implies a significant increase in demand for critical minerals.”

We have questions

The word “significant” used here contains multitudes (lithium “100 times current levels” according to the IEA’s own calculations) and the Paris-based firm has some questionne:

“The prospect of a rapid increase in demand for critical minerals – well above anything seen previously in most cases – raises questions about the availability and reliability of supply.”

With only six pages to work with, the IEA has to be succinct in its appraisal of the mining industry:


“The [supply] challenges are compounded by long lead times for the development of new projects, declining resource quality, growing scrutiny of environmental and social performance and a lack of geographical diversity in extraction and processing operations.”

Questions raised. Challenges compounded. Take that global warming!

Mining ghost protocol


Edinburgh-based Wood Mackenzie has also been doing some research ahead of COP26.

Woodmac, which beat the IEA by four years, releasing its first oil report in 1973, is expanding its mining and metals practice, most recently with the acquisition of London-based Roskill.

A new report by Julian Kettle, SVP of Woodmac’s metals and mining division, and senior analyst Kamil Wlazly, answers the questions about the availability of supply in the very title:

Mission impossible: supplying the base metals for accelerated decarbonisation

Woodmac is refreshingly blunt in its assessment of mining’s role in fighting climate change:

“The energy transition starts and ends with metals.”

“Achieving global net zero is inexorably linked to base metals supply.”

“Base metals capex needs to quadruple to about $2 trillion to achieve an accelerated energy transition.”

Whoomp, there it is.

The hidden ones

There are many eye-popping graphs in Mission impossible (download here) but this one perfectly illustrates why the decarbonisation goals of the Conference of Parties, without plans for new mines, only add hot air to the warming planet.



Woodmac gets straight to the point: “delivering the base metals to meet [net zero 2050] pathways strains project delivery beyond breaking point from people and plant to financing and permitting.”

Copper, which Woodmac emphasizes “sits at the nexus of the energy transition” stands out particularly.

The 19 million tonnes of additional copper that need to be delivered for net-zero 2050 implies a new La Escondida must be discovered and enter production every year for the next 20 years.

Even if you focus on just one of the obstacles bringing new copper supply online – the time it takes to build a new mine – and leave aside all other factors, net-zero 2050 has zero chance.

Great great grandfathered in

Consider that among the world’s largest copper mines, La Escondida is a relative newcomer – it was discovered in 1981, and only hit 1 million tonnes 20 years later. (MINING.COM’s official measure of copper production is the escondida which equals one million tonnes.)

The weighted average discovery year of the planet’s top 20 biggest copper mines is 1928. US number one mine Morenci (less than half an escondida in 2020) was discovered in 1870. Chile and the world’s number two copper mine Collahuasi (O.63 escondida) dates back to 1880.


When Congo’s Kamoa-Kakula went into production in May this year it was the biggest new mine to do so since Escondida. By 2028 it will produce 840,000 tonnes a year. Kamoa-Kakula is a poster child for rapid mine development, yet Robert Friedland’s exploration team discovered the deposit back in 2003.

Let it be resolved

With ample reserves, the US has a number of uncommitted projects that would support the Conference of Parties and their wannabe cheerleader, the Biden administration, advancing its climate goals.

A top contender is the Resolution project in Arizona, near the town of Superior in the area known as the Copper Triangle.

Contained copper tops 10 million tonnes making it the sixth-largest measured deposit in the world. It’s an underground high-grade mine that shrinks its environmental footprint.

The world’s number one and two mining companies, BHP and Rio Tinto, have already spent $2 billion on it, including reclamation of a historical mine. The deposit was discovered in 1995 and 26 years later remains stuck in permitting hell.

Looks like a perfect candidate for fast track approval to help with those lofty climate goals and create those millions of promised green jobs.

Right? Trump – five days before leaving office – publishes a pivotal environmental report on the project.

Wrong. Biden rescinds the study and Democrats add specific wording to the $X.X trillion infrastructure bill that would block Resolution from going ahead.

Perhaps not surprising then, the news that BHP and others are looking at the previously shunned African copperbelt.

When central Africa is a friendlier jurisdiction for miners than the US, there may be something wrong with your strat… For more see above and below.

We process, you dig

The White House’s policy is one of relying on other countries to supply metals to the US because “it’s not that hard to dig a hole. What’s hard is getting that stuff out and getting it to processing facilities.”

A strategy that worked so well for the US with rare earths.

Perhaps the White House got the idea from Indonesia, which insists miners build processing plants and refineries to own the entire battery metal supply chain and by extension huge chunks of electric vehicle manufacture.

Tiny difference though: the grand design of Jakarta, like Beijing, Santiago, et al, includes the first link in the supply chain.

And when things go wrong in metals supply for automaking, they go really wrong, as the EU found out this month.

Overburdening overburden

Biden desperately wants a deal before COP26 to brag about all the ways it fights emissions by subsidizing American electric cars, windmills and solar panels overseas lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, silver, and rare earth mining companies.

As if the permitting process isn’t torture enough, there’s more in Biden’s bill that’ll make miners and explorers gnash their teeth and pull their hair out.

Also included in the reconciliation spending measure is an 8% gross – yes, gross isn’t it – royalty on existing mines and 4% on new ones. New ones? Ha!

There would also be a 7 cent fee for every tonne of rock moved.

This is a particularly stupefying proposal. Not easy to find anything in the tax code that shows this kind of ignorance of how an industry operates, but it would not be dissimilar to taxing farmers for every acre ploughed (multiplied by the length of the blades just to make sure you precisely measure the displaced dirt), regardless of any harvest.

What’s another year


It was two years ago almost to the day on the occasion of a Greta Thunberg protest in MINING.COM’s hometown of Vancouver, that this paper declared Thunberg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the mining industry’s unlikely heroines.

We urged miners to embrace the goals of the environmental movement and initiatives like the Green New Deal.

With all the glaring holes drilled into COP26’s decarbonisation plans, it sure feels like it was Greta and AOC that copped out of this embrace, not mining.
'Treat or tricks': 1922 Edmonton Bulletin article has claim to first printed reference to popular Halloween phrase

Popik said the United States didn't have trick or treat until its first citation in Michigan in 1928: "People always thought it was an Americanism"

Author of the article: Kellen Taniguchi
Publishing date: Oct 30, 2021 • 
The historic Magrath Mansion welcomes trick-or-treaters for Halloween in the Highlands neighbourhood of Edmonton, on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2020.
 PHOTO BY IAN KUCERAK /Postmedia


The phrase may have been out of order but the earliest citation referring to the now popular Halloween phrase “trick or treat” may have been in Edmonton, of all places.

Barry Popik, a New York etymologist , recently discovered the Edmonton Bulletin first printed the phrase “treat up or tricks” in an article on Nov. 2, 1922.

“Nobody had 1922,” Popik said, in an interview with Postmedia. “Edmonton, until I find other information, you’re number one, you’re first and you get the credit.”

The quotations reads, ” ‘Treat up or tricks,’ the ultimatum on the part of young Canada which is usually associated with Hallowe’en was on Tuesday evening apparently in the same classification as those proclamations broadcasted to the Turks — no one took particular notice of it.”

Word of the phrase spread quickly as “treat or trick” was printed in the Red Deer Advocate in 1924 and “treats or tricks” circulated in a Regina newspaper in 1926, according to Popik’s website .

Popik said the United States didn’t have trick or treat until its first citation in Michigan in 1928.

“People always thought it was an Americanism,” said Popik.

An article from the Edmonton Bulletin dated Nov. 2, 1922 is the first printed recording of the popular Halloween ultimatum. Supplied photo/Newspapers.com jpg
An article from the Edmonton Bulletin dated Nov. 2, 1922 is the first printed recording of the popular Halloween ultimatum. Supplied photo/Newspapers.com

Although the phrase was first printed in 1922, Popik said he wouldn’t be surprised if it was verbally used the year before — making the Halloween ultimatum 100 years old.

However, the first documented use of the verbal phrase “trick or treat” was in Blackie, Alta. in 1927, according to a newspaper article — making Alberta home to the first known citation and verbal use of the phrase.

Popik said “trick or treat” is one of the newer famous Halloween terms with “Halloween apples” first being cited in 1912 and “shell out” first printed in the Globe, now known as the Globe and Mail, in 1898.

COVID-19 has given Popik another area of work, as he has been keeping track of jokes, terms and even memes created during the pandemic.

“Once it started, I decided to record all of them. The words, the phrases and a lot of the jokes,” he said. “I have over 1,100 terms, approaching 1,200 terms and I try to add a few more each day.”



He’s recorded multiple spellings referring to the word vaccination. He said he’s seen people spell it as vax, vaxx or vacks and he has also kept track of common phrases used on signs at protests.

Popik said social media has made it easier to work on his COVID-19 terms.

“I use Twitter a lot and it would have been nice if we had Twitter in the 1920s. It would have been much easier for trick or treat,” he said with a laugh.

Popik’s work on Halloween and COVID-19 can be found at barrypopik.com.

ktaniguchi@postmedia.com

twitter.com/TaniguchiKellen

 

'The Blob' threatens carbon-sucking power of Pacific Ocean: study

New research shows the 2013 discovery of The Blob — a massive marine heat wave —threatens the carbon-scrubbing role of the ocean's tiniest creatures.
Line P Transect measures the blob
A conductivity, temperature and depth (CTD) device is lowered off a ship along the Line P Transect. Running over 1,400 km from Vancouver Island into the middle of the Pacific, scientists have been collecting oceanographic data along the stretch of ocean since 1949. 

A multi-year ocean heat wave known as “the Blob” may have temporarily disrupted the biological pump that cycles carbon dioxide deep into the Pacific Ocean for up to thousands of years at a time, a new study has found. 

The study brought together researchers from the University of British Columbia, the Hakai Institute and DFO’s Institute of Ocean Sciences. Together, they analyzed 271 biological samples collected along a 1,425-kilometre path stretching from the south coast of Vancouver Island into the middle of the Pacific Ocean. 

The results, published last week in the journal Communications Biology, showed significant changes in microbial species living on the ocean’s surface before, during and after the Blob first appeared in 2013. 

That change, say the researchers, could signal a re-ordering of the tiniest life at sea — microbes and plankton that act as one of the lungs of the global climate system, releasing but ultimately scrubbing more carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere every year. 

“The Blob is one of the biggest heat waves we have on record in history... There's only going to be more of them as we go on with time because of climate change,” says lead author Sachia Traving, a marine microbiologist now at a deep ocean institute at the University of Denmark.

“It could push the bacterial communities into a change where the change is permanent... It won’t be able to recover back to the original state.”

podaac_blob_colordata_sst2015
Monthly average sea surface temperature for May 2015. Between 2013 and 2016, a large mass of unusually warm ocean water ('the Blob') dominated the North Pacific. NASA Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center

HOW DOES THE ‘BIOLOGICAL PUMP’ WORK?

The life-or-death balance known as the ocean’s “biological pump” begins near the sea surface. As miniature photo-synthesizers, phytoplankton sit at the bottom of the food chain, using the sun’s energy to convert atmospheric carbon dioxide into solid organic material.

They are a key part of an ocean system that is thought to scrub up to 30 per cent of human-produced greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere every year.

Some phytoplankton feed krill, shrimp and jellyfish, which in turn feed bigger fish, eventually making it into the mouths of sea life like sharks and dolphins. But not everything in the sea is eaten alive, and like on land, the dead eventually offer a meal to the tiniest of creatures. 

Enter microbic bacteria and archaea. Together, they act as garburators for rotting sea life, breaking down dead organic matter like whale poop, dead carcasses, seaweed — and plankton. 

Microbe populations latch on to this dead organic matter and begin to break it down. Whatever gets metabolized near the sea’s surface gets converted into carbon dioxide, eventually bleeding back into the atmosphere. Under normal conditions, much of the organic matter sinks deep into the ocean, their dead bodies taking the carbon to the ocean floor where it can stay for thousands of years.

“That’s really great because that makes the ocean this huge carbon sink that actually stores a significant amount of carbon dioxide in organic form,” says Traving.

Phytoplankton
By absorbing energy from the sun and combining it with carbon from the atmosphere, phytoplankton form the base of aquatic food webs. NOAA MESA Project

OCEAN HEAT WAVES THREATEN A FINE BALANCE

Scientists have generally assumed the role microbes play remains stable over time, mostly because they account for a huge diversity of species and population sizes.

But research has increasingly found warmer sea surface temperature can throw that stability out of whack, according to Traving.

When the Blob spread in 2015 — one of the biggest ocean heat waves in modern times — sea surface temperatures spiked between 1 and 4 C, extending as deep as 200 metres. 

As nutrient levels, including chlorophyll, dropped, the size of phytoplankton cells decreased. The fear, say scientists, is that the trend toward smaller phytoplankton means less carbon getting scrubbed out of the atmosphere and buried deep in the ocean.

That was bad enough, says Traving. To make matters worse, the research team found warmer seas offered prime conditions for several new species of bacteria, many of them who live independently of phytoplankton. Without latching on to the plankton, they remain at the surface, tiny engines thriving as they burn through dead matter. 

“If (microbes) are very active and they process a lot of organic material, they will also respire a lot of the carbon back, which will eventually end up in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide,” says Traving.

Traving says more research needs to be done to understand the scale of the phenomenon. What is certain, is that the climate crisis is expected to lead to more Blob-like heat waves all over the world’s oceans. It’s not a stretch, says Traving, to say that could push these ocean-roaming bacteria into a permanent change.

“Maybe the Blob itself wasn't really a tipping point as a stand-alone event. But if we get more of those and closer together in the future, th