Sunday, March 14, 2021





The ketamine blew my mind’: can psychedelics cure addiction and depression?

‘We prepare a client for their drug experience; allow them to feel safe and warm.’ Illustration: Frieda Ruh/The Guardian

This week sees the opening of the first UK high-street clinic offering psychedelic-assisted therapy. Could popping psilocybin be the future of mental healthcare?


Words: Alexandra Jones Illustration: Frieda Ruh
Sat 13 Mar 2021 11.00 GMT

In the summer of 1981, when he was 13, Grant crashed a trail motorbike into a wall at his parents’ house in Cambridgeshire. He’d been hiding it in the shed, but “it was far too powerful for me, and on my very first time starting it in the garden, I smashed it into a wall”. His mother came outside to find the skinny teenager in a heap next to the crumpled motorbike. “I was in a lot of trouble.”

Grant hadn’t given this childhood memory much thought in the intervening years, but one hot August day in 2019, it came back to him with such clarity that, at 53, now a stocky father of two, he suddenly understood it as a clue to his dangerously unhealthy relationship with alcohol.

The day before, a team of specialists at the Royal Devon and Exeter hospital had given him an intravenous infusion of ketamine, a dissociative hallucinogen, in common use as an anaesthetic since the 1970s, and more recently one of a group of psychedelic drugs being hailed as a silver bullet in the fight to save our ailing mental health. To date, more than 100 patients with conditions as diverse as depression, PTSD and addiction have been treated in research settings across the UK, using a radical new intervention that combines psychedelic drugs with talking therapy. What was once a fringe research interest has become the foundation of a new kind of healthcare, one that, for the first time in modern psychiatric history, purports to not only treat but actually cure mental ill health. And if advocates are to be believed, that cure will be available on the NHS within the next five years

Thanks to its world-leading academic institutions, the UK has become a home to many of the biotech companies developing these treatments. But while investment money pours in and new experimental trials launch almost weekly, ketamine remains the only psychedelic drug that’s actually licensed for use as a medicine.

Under its influence, Grant had an out-of-body experience he struggles to put into words. “It was like I was sinking deeper and deeper into myself,” he says. “Then I became white… and I left my body. I was up on the ceiling, looking at myself, but I was just this white entity. I felt very serene and humbled; I finally understood my place in the universe, just a white speck of light, I wasn’t the centre of everything and that was fine.”

The next day, in a therapy session at the hospital, the motorbike story and other memories swirled up from his subconscious: being caught smoking at school and caned, and other instances of “playing up” as a child. Most vividly, he remembers the consequences: “I got my parents’ attention.”

I realised feeling overlooked as a child drove my drinking. It hadn’t been on my radar – but with ketamine I got there


His parents were evangelists; Grant’s father was a teacher and lay preacher, and his mother ran a nursery from home. They were also fosterers who, over the span of their marriage, gave a home to more than 200 children. “Growing up, love was never in short supply,” Grant says. What was in short supply was his parents’ attention. “They had a lot of commitments, they were very busy people,” he says. “I suppose what I realised in that therapy session was that I’d felt overlooked as a child and that had caused me pain.” Over the years, that pain crystallised, and alcohol became a crutch. “I could see it was the root of the negative emotions that drove my drinking, and a lot of other bad habits and behaviours.” He says it’s a realisation he might have taken years to come to with standard talking therapy. “It wasn’t even on my radar, so it blew my mind. To understand myself and my drinking, and why I behaved the way I did… With the ketamine therapy I got there in a few weeks. I feel free.”

In recent years, research into psychedelic-assisted mental healthcare has shed its outsider status. As far back as 2016, Robin Carhart-Harris and his team at Imperial College London published promising findings from the world’s first modern research trial investigating the impact of psilocybin (the active ingredient in magic mushrooms) alongside psychological support, on 19 patients with treatment-resistant depression (TRD). This is when a person doesn’t respond to two or more available therapies; it is particularly debilitating and, recent data shows, affects about a third of all people with depression. In the study, two doses of psilocybin (10mg and 25mg, seven days apart), plus therapy, resulted in “marked reductions in depressive symptoms” in the first five weeks, which “remained significant six months post-treatment”. This new treatment proved so promising that, in 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) awarded breakthrough therapy status to psilocybin (given only to drugs that “demonstrate substantial improvement over available therapy”) as a treatment for TRD. In December 2019, a ketamine-like drug – esketamine – was licensed for use in the UK as a rapid-onset treatment for major depression: it starts working in hours, compared with weeks or months with traditional antidepressants. In April 2020, after running their own psilocybin-assisted psychotherapy study, with 24 participants who had depression, experts from Johns Hopkins University in the US issued a press release stating: “The magnitude of the effect we saw was about four times larger than what clinical trials have shown for traditional antidepressants on the market.”

All this, and other early-stage evidence, is fuelling larger, more ambitious investigations. The London life sciences company Compass Pathways, whose research led to the FDA award, is coordinating one of the biggest psilocybin for TRD studies in the world, involving 216 patients across Europe and North America. The aim is to develop a new style of therapy that harnesses the psychedelic experience, as well as to change these substances’ classification, so they can be licensed as medicines. This wouldn’t change the legal status of MDMA or psilocybin (banned for recreational use in the UK), but it would mean treatments using these compounds could be prescribed.

Laurie Higbed, Ben Sessa and Steve O’Brien at Awakn in Bristol, the UK’s first high-street provider of psychedelic-assisted psychotherapy. Photograph: Joel Redman/The Guardian


In the meantime, practitioners of this new kind of mental healthcare can use ketamine as their psychedelic agent; and some studies, such as the one Grant participated in, are even government funded. The Ketamine for Reduction of Alcoholic Relapse (Kare) study is a novel attempt to ease the huge burden on the NHS caused by alcohol-related illnesses. (Two years ago, a major review of inpatient records found that 10% of people in hospital beds in the UK were alcohol dependent, and one in five were doing themselves harm by drinking.) As the Kare study lead, Professor Celia Morgan, tells me, “Three-quarters of people who stop drinking and go through detox will be back drinking within 12 months: that’s not a good recovery rate.”

Patients aren’t merely given a dose and left to their own devices; a new style of therapy was developed for the study which, Morgan says, uses principles from cognitive behavioural therapy, mindfulness and relapse prevention. “We designed it to go with the ketamine effects. We wanted something evidence based, a therapy that has been shown to help people avoid alcoholic relapse. But also something that would work with what we know about the brain in the ketamine state.” The patient is primed for new learning, she says, and more able to view the self from an outsider’s perspective.

Until now, in the UK, therapy using psychedelics has remained the preserve of academic institutions – available only in research trials with highly specific criteria for inclusion. This week, though, with the opening of its clinic in Bristol, Awakn Life Sciences has become the UK’s first on-the-high-street provider of psychedelic-assisted psychotherapy. The clinical-biotech company is “researching, developing and delivering evidence-based psychedelic medicine to treat addiction and other mental health conditions”. This means it will be developing its own type of psychedelic-assisted psychotherapy (with a focus on MDMA to treat addiction) via experimental trials. And alongside it, delivering ketamine-assisted psychotherapy.

“Our USP is the clinics,” says Dr Ben Sessa, consultant psychiatrist, psychedelic therapist and chief medical officer at Awakn. “We’re aiming to open 15 to 20 across the UK and EU in the next 24 months. Patients will be able to self-refer or be referred by their GP (including NHS).” They will need a formal diagnosis and will most likely have to prove they have already tried a number of other therapies.

See a psychiatrist at 20 and chances are you still will be at 60. We’ve come to accept we can’t cure patients. Why not?


Sessa is scathing about the psychiatric profession as it currently operates: “We need innovation in this industry, desperately and now.” The problem, he argues, is that outcomes within psychiatric treatment fall far short of the gold standard set for the rest of the medical profession. “If you broke your leg and went to an orthopaedic specialist, you’d expect it to be fixed,” he says. “You wouldn’t expect to be prescribed painkillers for the rest of your life. But if you present to your psychiatrist in your early 20s with a severe mental illness, there’s a good chance you will still be seeing them when you’re 60. You’ll still be on the same daily drugs.” According to the most recent NHS figures, only half of talking therapy patients recovered from their condition. “What about the other 50%?” Sessa asks. “As an industry, we’ve come to accept that we can never cure our patients. But why not?”

Psychedelic-assisted psychotherapy, he says, may be “the holy grail – curative psychiatry”, arguing that these interventions offer relatively fast-acting alleviation of symptoms and don’t require the same level of maintenance (with drugs or talking therapy) as the treatments currently available.

Though alcoholism is a focus, Awakn will also offer psychedelic-assisted therapy to treat depression, anxiety, eating disorders and most addictions.

On a Monday in late February, the Bristol clinic is abuzz with builders and workmen. Formerly the site of an Indian restaurant, it sits in a 19th-century building on the corner of Regent Street and Hensmans Hill in Bristol’s chi-chi Clifton area. Its position, next to a barber shop and cocktail bar, and overlooking a small park, was picked for its ordinariness. As Awakn’s CEO Anthony Tennyson explains, “Our strategy is to normalise the industry; we want to integrate into the mainstream, so that popping in for mental health treatment is as normal as… ” he trails off. Getting your teeth whitened? “Something like that,” he laughs.

Inside, the clinic is painted a tasteful dove grey, with exposed brickwork and wooden floors. “It’s going to be sort of Scandinavian chic in design,” says Steve O’Brien, the operations manager. “That will be one of the treatment rooms.” He points up a flight of stairs to a room separated from reception by a reinforced glass partition. “We’re waiting for the beds to be delivered.” “Set and setting” (ie the mental state and physical environment) have been shown to be vital to the psychedelic experience – and a bad setting can equal a bad trip.

This is something O’Brien has experience of. “Years ago I took [the powerful hallucinogen] ayahuasca in Iquitos, Peru. It was all a bit dodgy. I ended up in this dark little hut with breeze-block walls covered in sheets and 12 Peruvian ladies in deck chairs watching Friends really loudly next door. I thought I was going to be ritually sacrificed,” he says. The clinic’s attention to the furnishings and feel of the space isn’t just elegant window dressing: “It’s about preparing a client for their drug experience, allowing them to feel safe and warm. It’s about as far from that Peruvian hut as you can get.”

Patients will be assessed by Awakn’s team, including Sessa and Dr Laurie Higbed, a clinical psychologist who specialises in complex trauma and addictions, who has been part of research trials using both psilocybin and MDMA as adjuncts to psychotherapy. “I was the clinical psychologist, alongside Ben [Sessa as consultant psychiatrist], in an addiction service,” Higbed says. “We used to chat over coffee about how our caseload was full of clients who had experienced trauma in their lives, particularly in childhood. We were treating their heroin or alcohol use, but really that was just a symptom, rather than the cause.”

Her job was to help addicts uncover and work through those underlying traumas via talking therapy. But being forced to remember a trauma we may have spent a lifetime trying to suppress can be very daunting. “Often you get a little bit worse before you get better,” Higbed says, and this requires “a lot of faith that it’s worth the effort”.
‘Psychedelic compounds free thoughts to move in new ways.’ Illustration: Frieda Ruh/The Guardian

Metaphors abound for exactly how psychedelics work on a neurological level but one of the most popular involves considering the brain as a snow globe, showing a pristine scene at birth. As we age, our experiences, habits and the traumas we live through create tracks in the snow for our thoughts to run along. The older we get, the more worn the tracks become, making it harder for us to escape established thought patterns. “So with things like depression,” Higbed says, “you might have this negative worldview which can be very difficult to break free from.” Psychedelic compounds shake up the snow globe. Old ruts are destabilised and thoughts are free to move in new ways.

“This is why therapy is an important part of the treatment,” says Morgan who, as well as running the research trial Grant was a part of, will be consulting on treatments for alcoholism at Awakn. “The drugs alone might prompt big epiphanies, but the therapy helps you to learn from them and create lasting change.” She has seen this process in action. “One patient had been drinking seven bottles of wine a day, and had seen his life crumble,” she says. “His wife left, his daughter stopped speaking to him.” The patient had been abused as a child, and over his lifetime had spent increasing amounts of energy trying to avoid the emotions thrown up by that early trauma. “He had a very strong reaction to the ketamine infusion,” Morgan says. “He said he felt a kind of love and safety that he hadn’t felt for a long time. At one point he felt like he was back in his mum’s tummy.”

As part of the psychedelic experience, he also encountered his abuser, his father. “He said he felt pity for him. This was a massive step because he was able to understand his experiences from the perspective of an observer; the pity also extended to himself, which alleviated a lot of the shame and guilt he’d been feeling because of his alcoholism.” Eighteen months later, the man was still sober – having previously only ever managed a month.

A treatment course at Awakn lasts six weeks, with four drug-assisted sessions in that time. “And a follow-up session at week nine, so it’s 11 in total,” Higbed says. “It’s intensive.” Though, ultimately, they hope to work primarily with MDMA, they’re hamstrung by the current global legislation, which says the drug can be used only in an experimental setting. In the meantime, they’ll offer ketamine injections, more fast-acting than the infusion Grant received, but likely to yield similar results. It will cost “around £6,000”, Tennyson says. “Though our ultimate aim is to make it available on the NHS, to help as many people as possible.”
It’s not a magical cure. People should definitely try talking therapy first. It does work, and is much less invasive

Tennyson comes from a corporate finance background (Merrill Lynch, Bank of Ireland and 10 years in the risk consulting arm of the insurer Aon, . Like Sessa, he’s evangelical in his belief that the services offered by Awakn have never been more necessary. “Twenty per cent of the population have a mental health issue on an annual basis. The industry that is meant to be fixing this is significantly underperforming,” he says. In fact, according to figures from the mental health charity Mind, that figure is closer to 25%.

Tennyson’s job is to drive sales and generate investor interest. Financially, Awakn needs the clinics to be a success, but it’s also gearing up for a round of funding to help start its own research trials. Tennyson is coy about exactly how much this might cost (one academic confirms it runs to tens of millions) but says, “Ultimately, you can’t solve problems of this magnitude without capital.”

The capital, it seems, is following the science into a psychedelics gold rush. Peter Rands is the CEO of Small Pharma, a London-based life sciences company preparing to run the world’s first formal trial evaluating the combination of DMT (a short-acting but powerful hallucinogen) and psychotherapy to treat patients with major depressive disorder. “2020 was a relatively easy year to raise money into a psychedelics company,” he says, partly because investors understand the proposition now more than ever: “I don’t think this seems like a niche industry any more.” But it’s also because the pandemic proved drugs can suddenly have global demand. “Covid showed how much value there is in responding quickly to a major unmet medical need. Pre-pandemic, the biotech industry was worth a fraction of the price it is now. When drugs were suddenly being touted as a Covid cure, there was huge investor interest.”

A lot of investment, Rands says, is coming from Canada. Small Pharma plans to list on the Toronto stock exchange, and Awakn is incorporated in Toronto. “The Canadian investor community has a higher risk appetite to emerging industries,” Tennyson says. Rands agrees, pointing out that, “until recently, Canadian companies were pretty much all mining companies. And mining has a similar risk-return profile to drug development.” In both industries, he says, huge sums are invested upfront to excavate the necessary goods: “In drug development, that’s through clinical trials.”

In September 2020, Compass Pathways floated on the Nasdaq exchange. In October, it was valued at $1.3bn.

The company was founded in 2016 by Dr Ekaterina Malievskaia and her husband, George Goldsmith, after a years-long battle to find adequate mental healthcare for their son, who had OCD and depression. Goldsmith is quick to correct the narrative about his work. “We don’t see ourselves as part of a ‘psychedelics industry’ – we are a mental healthcare company.”

He is sanguine about how quickly these interventions could become more widely available, likening the process to climbing Everest. “A medicine is a drug plus the evidence that says it’s safe and effective to use for a certain type of patient. We’re about halfway through the process of collecting that evidence. But I think if everything works out well, by 2025 psilocybin-assisted therapy could be prescribed on the NHS for treatment-resistant depression.”

Sessa, whose focus is MDMA-assisted therapies to treat addiction, has a shorter timeline in mind. “MDMA is further along than psilocybin in the regulatory process,” he says. “It is thought it will be approved as a medicine by late 2022 or early 2023.” By that point, if Awakn has realised its ambitions, it will have a clinic in every major city in the UK.


'My mother-in-law called me Walter White': how magic mushrooms rescued me from grief

Despite the widespread evangelism from within the psychedelic-assisted psychotherapy field, Higbed resists the idea that it is some kind of panacea. She points out that it doesn’t work for all people, and that many would be put off by the hallucinogenic experience. “It’s not a magical cure,” she insists. “People should definitely try talking therapy first. It does work, and is much less invasive.” She also points out that antidepressants and other kinds of medications work “incredibly well for many people. This is really only for the subset of sufferers who aren’t being helped by what’s currently out there. It’s an innovation in an industry that hasn’t innovated in a long time.”

Dr Andrea Cipriani, a professor at the department of psychiatry, University of Oxford, shares the enthusiasm about the potential for psychedelics, but cautions that there is still a long way to go before they are more widely used. “These are very potent medications which, from a public health policy point of view, means it’s not a straightforward path to delivering this in a wider clinical setting,” he says. “I don’t think ketamine will ever get into the NHS as a first-line treatment; you reach this option only if previous ones have failed. And for the other psychedelics, I think it’s more difficult.”

Meanwhile, Grant hasn’t picked up a drink once since his ketamine treatment. “I haven’t even thought about a drink,” he says. “Problem drinkers struggle so much to control this – they avoid aisles in the supermarket, they carry all this shame. If everyone who needed it had access to this, I truly believe it would change the world.”

This article was amended on 13 and 14 March 2021. The insurer Aon was previously referred to as “an Irish insurance broker”; Awakn plans to open 15 to 20 clinics in the UK and EU in the next two years, not just the UK as Dr Ben Sessa told us in an earlier version; and we incorrectly referred to “John Hopkins University” in the US, rather than Johns Hopkins University.

Buddhists take on US army to keep peace in Scottish sanctuary

Eve Livingston THE GUARDIAN 3/14/2021

Nestled in the village of Eskdalemuir in Dumfries and Galloway, between wet moorlands, farmland and neolithic stone circles, is the largest Buddhist temple in western Europe.

Samye Ling, home to about 60 monks, nuns and volunteers, and visited by thousands of people each year, was established in 1967 and has welcomed famous names including Billy Connolly, Richard Gere and David Bowie – the latter, so the story goes, was so moved by his time there that he considered becoming a monk, until spiritual leaders told him to pursue a career in music.


But despite being a place usually characterised by peace and tranquility, Eskdalemuir’s monastic population are now at the centre of an unlikely dispute with a firearms dealer, a shooting club, and the US military. The controversy concerns two retrospective planning applications by neighbouring farms to expand shooting ranges in the small borders village. One, at Over Cassock farm about five miles from Samye Ling, seeks to replace temporary buildings with a permanent structure while the other, at Clerkhill farm just two miles away, is to expand a shooting range, which was opened last March but closed eight months later in the absence of full planning approval.

© Photograph: Andrew Cawley/Alamy Abbot Lama Yeshe Losal Rinpoche at the monastery near Lockerbie in Scotland.

Both plans are opposed by the residents of Samye Ling on the basis of noise concerns and disruption to wildlife, as well as the use of one range for US Special Forces machine gun and rifle training.

“Samye Ling has been here more than 50 years and we have always tried to be good Buddhists and especially to be good neighbours,” said Abbot Lama Yeshe Losal Rinpoche. “Now I hear the US forces will be training on a long-range high-velocity firing range within two kilometres of Samye Ling, on forestry land. We have a lot of very tame birds in Samye Ling; it’s like a peaceful sanctuary for them. They feel safe here because nobody harms them and so there are a large number of little birds and bigger ones too. They are used to our peaceful environment and the sound of gunshots is terrifying for them all.”

Samye Ling’s residents have been supported by more than 10,000 members of the public in an online petition, as well as by Eskdalemuir community council and Joan McAlpine, MSP for South Scotland, who told the Observer that constituents had raised concerns about the plans and the use of the Clerkhill range by US military. “I share the concerns of my constituents about large sections of the land around their community being given over to people who appear to want to play war games with high-calibre live ammunition,” she said
© Provided by The Guardian The Kagyu Samye Ling monastery and Tibetan centre. Photograph: Sam Mellish/Getty Images

“This is about far more than noise – locals are rightly worried about safety and the militaristic nature of a development, which is completely inappropriate in a place of peace. There is not a shred of evidence it will bring economic benefits; it is more likely to drive visitors away.”

A spokesperson for the owner of Clerkhill farm and Gardner Guns, which operates the range, said it was essential to diversify income following Brexit and the pandemic, and the plans would generate jobs and income. Darren Bean of the Fifty Calibre Shooters Association, which operates the Over Cassock range, said: “The range operated for three years without the inhabitants of Samye Ling being aware of its existence: it is at the end of a valley facing away from all habitation.”

A spokesperson for Dumfries and Galloway council said both applications would be considered by the planning applications committee .

For Rinpoche, the plans are a final straw after years of growing traffic and noise pollution from commercial forestry and hunting, about which the Samye Ling community have never complained. Now they are calling on supporters to contact the council with their objections.

“Thousands of people come here for courses and to meditate,” he said. “They all feel strongly opposed to this plan, and I have many friends from around the world who are determined to raise their voices in opposition to it.”



Thai protest leaders go on trial for sedition, insulting king

BANGKOK (Reuters) - A trial got underway in Thailand on Monday for activists accused of sedition and insulting the powerful monarchy at a major protest last year, one of a series of mass demonstrations against the country's military-backed establishment.

© Reuters/CHALINEE THIRASUPA Arrested anti-government protesters arrive at criminal court to face lese majeste charges in Bangkok

© Reuters/CHALINEE THIRASUPA Arrested anti-government protesters arrive at criminal court to face lese majeste charges in Bangkok

The 22 demonstrators deny charges of committing sedition and a litany of other offences, which includes lese majeste, a crime punishable by up to 15 years in prison for each count.

"They can lock me up but they cannot lock up the truth," protest leader Parit "Penguin" Chiwarak shouted as he arrived in a prison truck, defiantly flashing the three-finger "Hunger Games" salute synonymous with the youth movement.

"The truth is always the truth whether in prison, under torture or awaiting execution, the truth is the truth," said Parit, 22, who is among seven defendants held in pre-trial detention and accused of insulting King Maha Vajiralongkorn, as well as sedition.
© Reuters/CHALINEE THIRASUPA Arrested anti-government protesters arrive at criminal court to face lese majeste charges in Bangkok

Thailand's youth movement has posed the biggest challenge so far to prime minister and former coup leader Prayuth Chan-ocha, who they say engineered a process that would preserve the political status quo and keep him in power after a 2019 election. Prayuth has rejected that.

Protesters also broke a traditional taboo by demanding reform of the powerful monarchy, saying the constitution drafted by the military after the 2014 coup gives the king too much power.

© Reuters/CHALINEE THIRASUPA Arrested anti-government protesters arrive at criminal court to face lese majeste charges in Bangkok

The length of the trial will be determined later on Monday after the defence and prosecution discuss how many witnesses both sides will call upon for the case, which stems from a September rally.

© Reuters/JORGE SILVA Arrested anti-government protest leader Jatupat "Pai" Boonpattararaksa shows a three-finger salute as he arrives at the criminal court to face lese majeste charges in Bangkok

(Reporting by Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat; Editing by Martin Petty)



Suu Kyi to face court after bloody day in Myanmar

AFP 
3/14/2021

Myanmar's ousted civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi is to appear in court on Monday, after one of the country's bloodiest days since the February 1 coup.

© STR Protesters demanding the release of Suu Kyi and the restoration of democracy have taken to the streets across Myanmar every day for around six weeks

At least 38 protesters were killed on Sunday as security forces cracked down on anti-coup protesters, taking the total death toll to more than 120, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) monitoring group.

© Thet AUNG Lawyer Khin Maung Zaw has said the claims against his client were 'groundless'

Protesters demanding the release of Suu Kyi and the restoration of democracy have taken to the streets across Myanmar every day for around six weeks despite the junta's increasingly forceful attempts to quell the dissent.

Sunday -- the joint deadliest day of unrest along with March 3 -- saw violent clashes between security forces and protesters and the torching of several Chinese-owned factories in a textile-producing district of Yangon, as many protesters believe Beijing to be supportive of the coup.

© STR Live rounds have been used during the crackdowns

State-run television confirmed on Monday that a police officer was shot dead in the city of Bago during a protest.

The Yangon court hearing for Suu Kyi -- who spent more than 15 years in house arrest under previous military rule -- is expected to start by video link around 10 am (0330 GMT), her lawyer Khin Maung Zaw told AFP.

The Nobel laureate faces at least four charges: possessing unlicensed walkie-talkies, violating coronavirus restrictions, breaching telecommunications laws and intent to cause public unrest.

Military authorities have also accused her of accepting illegal payments of $600,000 in cash as well as a large quantity of gold -- allegations her lawyer says are "groundless".

"The ruling junta has showed its teeth and taken its mask off… they are showing their true self," Khin Maung Zaw said of Sunday's violence.

Khin Maung Zaw has complained he has not been allowed to meet Suu Kyi, who has been in custody since the coup, though he said the 75-year-old appeared in good health at her last court appearance, by video link, on March 1.
© STR Security forces have set up barricades across Yangon

- Chinese factories attacked -

Video: Myanmar military coup, protester death toll rises with increased violence (USA TODAY)


The international community is growing ever more alarmed at the bloodshed, but so far the generals have shown no signs of heeding calls for restraint.

The UN's top rights expert on Myanmar Tom Andrews tweeted that he was "heartbroken/outraged" at Sunday's events.

"Junta leaders don't belong in power, they belong behind bars," he wrote.

"Their supply of cash & weapons must be cut now. I appeal to UN member states to heed my call to act."

On Sunday night state media announced that Yangon's massive Hlaing Tharyar township and the neighbouring Shwepyitha township were being put under martial law.

The move came after protesters and security forces clashed violently and five factories -- several of them Chinese-owned -- in Hlaing Tharyar, a garment-producing district, were razed.

Security forces opened fire on demonstrators wielding sticks and knives, and using cut-out trash cans as shields.

Beijing's embassy in Myanmar issued a statement condemning the actions of "destroyers" and urging police to "guarantee the security" of Chinese businesses.

The declaration of martial law means anyone arrested in the two townships faces trial by military tribunal rather than civilian courts, with sentences ranging from three years' hard labour to execution.

The UN envoy for Myanmar Christine Schraner Burgener strongly condemned Sunday's bloodshed, while the former colonial power Britain said it was "appalled" by the use of force "against innocent people."

Last week Andrews, the UN Special Rapporteur on rights in Myanmar, said there was growing evidence that the junta was engaging in crimes against humanity -- including murder, forced disappearances and torture.

The human rights campaign group Amnesty International has also accused the military of using battlefield weapons on unarmed protestors and carrying out premeditated killings.

bur-pdw/je


'You'll have to come through me': Myanmar nun on becoming a symbol of resistance

Siobhan Robbins and Henry Austin 
3/14/2021

Dressed in a white habit and a dark veil, Sister Ann Roza Nu Tawng knelt before Myanmar military forces and told them, "You'll have to come through me."

A picture of her dramatic plea electrified protesters and made headlines around the world, which has been watching an increasingly brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters after last month's military coup.

At a rally in the city of Myitkyina last week, Sister Ann Roza, 45, told U.K. broadcaster Sky News that she had pleaded with police "not to beat, not to arrest, not to crack down on the protesters, because the protesters were not doing anything bad — they were just shouting slogans. " (Sky News is owned by Comcast, the parent company of NBC News.)

© Provided by NBC News A nun pleading with police not to harm protesters in Myanmar. (Myitkyina News Journal / AFP - Getty Images)

Asked to leave, she refused. "The police were also kneeling, and they told me they had to do it because this was to stop the protest," she said. "I replied: 'No, if you want to do this, you have to come through me.'"


Moments later, tear gas was fired and gunshots rang out.

With her vision impaired, she was unable to say whether the shots were fired by the officers she spoke with or by members of the military.

As she struggled to breathe, she saw a man who had fallen down in the street. She quickly realized he had been shot.

He was taken to a clinic for treatment, she said, and died later from his injuries. Another person died on the spot, she said.

The sister had already placed herself between the police and protesters in the city on Feb. 28.

In a separate interview with Sky News, Sister Ann Roza said that on that occasion, she "thought today is the day I will die" and that she had "decided to die."

"I thought it would be better that I die instead of lots of people," she said.

Police also opened fire on protesters and beat some of them.

She survived both times. Others have been less fortunate.

Thomas Andrews, the U.N.'s human rights investigator in the country, said Thursday that at least 70 people had been "murdered" since the army seized power Feb. 1 and detained the government's elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and much of her party leadership, alleging fraud in a November election that her party won in a landslide.

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Accusing the military junta of perpetrating killings, torture and persecution that may constitute crimes against humanity, Andrews told the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva that more than half of those killed were under age 25. He added that more than 2,000 people had been unlawfully detained.

"The country of Myanmar is being controlled by a murderous, illegal regime," he said.

The coup brought a halt to tentative steps toward democracy in Myanmar, a southeast Asian country of 54 million people, after nearly 50 years of military rule, and it has drawn hundreds of thousands onto the streets.

U.N. investigator: ‘Myanmar is being controlled by a murderous, illegal regime’

Western countries have condemned the military's actions, and some have imposed limited sanctions, but the generals have traditionally shrugged off such diplomatic pressure. They have promised to hold a new election but have not set a date.

Sister Ann Roza said the generals were not protecting the people, who "have to defend themselves."

She pledged to pray for both the military and the protesters, warning that "people are not safe anymore in Myanmar, which used to be a place for happiness."

She added that she would ask "people abroad to pray for us."

"May God bless you," she said. "I salute the fallen souls."
Martial law imposed in parts of Myanmar city as deaths rise

YANGON, Myanmar — Myanmar's ruling junta has declared martial law in parts of the country's largest city as security forces killed more protesters in an increasingly lethal crackdown on resistance to last month's military coup
© Provided by The Canadian Press

At least 38 people were killed Sunday and dozens were injured in one of the deadliest days of the crackdown, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, an independent group tracking the toll of the violence.

Most of those killed — 34 — were in Yangon, where two townships, Hlaing Thar Yar and neighbouring Shwepyitha were being placed under martial law.

Video from Hlaing Thar Yar township showed people running away after gunfire was heard. Those fleeing carried one injured person and tried to revive two others, one who seemed to be dead or dying, the footage from independent Democratic Voice of Burma showed.

Hlaing Thar Yar was the location of 22 civilian deaths Sunday, according to the aid group, which said more than a dozen civilians were wounded and described a large number of junta forces engaged in the township.

Since the takeover six weeks ago, Myanmar has been under a nationwide state of emergency, with its civilian leaders ousted and detained and military leaders in charge of all government. But the announcement on state broadcaster MRTV late Sunday appeared to be the first use of the term martial law since the coup and suggested more direct military control of security, instead of local police.

The announcement said the State Administrative Council acted to enhance security and restore law and order and said the Yangon regional commander has been entrusted with administrative, judicial and military powers in the area under his command.

Four other deaths were reported in Bago, Mandalay, and the northern city of Hpakant in Kachin state, according to the aid group and local media.

In Yangon, video posted on social media showed crowds of people, some wearing hard hats and gas masks, running down a street amid sounds of gunfire. The demonstrators quickly sprayed vapour from fire extinguishers as they retreated — a tactic widely used to smother tear gas and create a vapour screen that makes it harder for police to pursue or shoot demonstrators.

There were also reports of injuries from live rounds and rubber bullets in other parts of Yangon, including Insein district, where billows of black smoke could be seen after security forces reportedly set roadblocks on fire.

In a new tactic, anti-coup demonstrators used the cover of darkness to hold mass candlelight vigils Saturday and Sunday nights in a Yangon commercial area that was usually the scene of their daytime protests. After-dark rallies were also held in Mandalay and elsewhere.

The protest movement has been grounded in non-violent civil disobedience from the start, with marches and general strikes among its main features. But some protesters have advocated stronger, more agile methods of self-defence — such as holding small rallies that are quick to disband and reunite, and devising cover from fire extinguishers and billowing laundry.

On Saturday, the civilian leader of Myanmar’s government in hiding vowed to continue supporting a “revolution” to oust the military leaders who seized power in the Feb. 1 coup. Mahn Win Khaing Than, who was named the acting vice-president by Myanmar's ousted lawmakers and is a member of deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s political party, addressed the public for the first time since the coup.

“This is the darkest moment of the nation and the moment that the dawn is close,” he said in a video posted on the shadow government’s website and social media.

“In order to form a federal democracy, which all ethnic brothers who have been suffering various kinds of oppressions from the dictatorship for decades really desired, this revolution is the chance for us to put our efforts together," he said.

He added: “We will never give up to an unjust military, but we will carve our future together with our united power. Our mission must be accomplished.”

At the end of the message, he flashed the three-finger salute that has become a symbol of resistance to the military rulers.

The aid group's tally of Sunday's victims appeared to raise beyond 100 the number of civilians killed by security forces since the coup. Confirmation is nearly impossible in the country due to the security situation and a crackdown on independent media, but various groups have carefully compiled tallies with similar figures.

The actual death toll is likely higher, as police apparently seized some bodies, and some victims have had serious gunshot wounds that medical staff at makeshift clinics would be hard-pressed to treat. Many hospitals are occupied by security forces, and as a result are boycotted by medical personnel and shunned by protesters.

Police have also aggressively patrolled residential neighbourhoods at night, firing into the air and setting off stun grenades as an intimidation tactic. They have also taken people from their homes in targeted raids with minimal resistance. In at least two known cases, the detainees died in custody within hours of being hauled away.

The Associated Press
The death of Zaw Myat Lynn: allegations torture used on opposition activist in Myanmar


THE GUARDIAN 3/14/2021

Under cover of darkness, the soldiers rolled up outside a school building on the outskirts of Myanmar’s main city, Yangon. It was 1.30am. The military began searching the Suu Vocational College, in the north-west suburb of Shwe Pyi Thar. They moved swiftly from room to room.
© Photograph: Facebook Zaw Myat Lynn, right, posted on Facebook that ‘people should fight the army even if it costs our lives’.

They had come to arrest Zaw Myat Lynn, a prominent community organiser and teacher. He was an activist with the National League for Democracy (NLD), the party of Aung San Suu Kyi. In November, the NLD won a landslide election victory. It was in power until last month, when the military abruptly ended civilian rule.

Zaw Myat Lynn had been at the forefront of local anti-coup protests. He shared graphic videos of soldiers beating and shooting peaceful demonstrators. On Facebook he spoke out in fearless terms against Myanmar’s ruling junta. Its armed enforcers were “terrorists” and “dogs”, he wrote, adding “people should fight the army even if it costs our lives”.

Related: Myanmar: acting civilian leader says 'we must win' as five more protesters die

In his haunting final post, Zaw Myat Lynn live-streamed a pro-democracy rally close to the school. Locals sought to defend themselves from night-time arrest by putting up barricades and making defences out of sandbags. “We must prepare to protect our people,” he said, adding that an unknown number of troops had taken up positions nearby.

The defences didn’t work. The soldiers discovered him in the school compound, where he lived with his wife Phyu Phyu Win. They dragged him away. Zaw Myat Lynn was 46. He taught Japanese at the college; the couple had two children and a 10-year-old granddaughter. He was loaded into a truck and driven off. It was early morning, Monday 8 March.

Twenty-four hours later, his wife was instructed to visit a military hospital in Mingarlardon township, in north Yangon, according to Maung Saungkha, a family friend. There, she was told to identify a body. It was her husband. Officials said she had to cremate his remains as soon as she took delivery of the corpse.

They gave her an official postmortem “report”. It claimed Zaw Myat Lynn had fallen nine metres (30ft) on to a sharp metal fence while trying to escape from custody. This explained his injuries. It was only after collecting his remains two days later that she discovered another explanation. The horrific nature of his injuries supports allegations that Zaw Myat Lynn had been savagely tortured.

Photographs of his body seen by the Guardian give clues to his horrifying final hours. It appears that boiling water or a chemical solution had been poured into his mouth. The tongue was melted, his teeth missing. Facial skin was peeling off. The body had been wrapped up to conceal further traumatic injuries.

These included a stab wound to the abdomen seemingly made by a cross-sectional knife. The wound appears to have been inflicted while he was still alive, and may have been the cause of death. Severe bruising can be seen on the sides of his body, which had been cut open and stitched up.

“All participants in the civil disobedience movement are aware they are in danger. Lynn knew the risks,” one fellow activist, connected to Myanmar’s underground national legislative committee, the CRPH, said. “A lot of young people go out to protest and never come back. We don’t know if they are arrested or dead.”

The activist added: “Lynn was targeted because he was high-profile. The military’s aim is to teach the rest of us a lesson, to say, ‘this is how you will end up’. The strategy won’t work. We are cleverer. We have a lot of social media and ways of reaching the world that we didn’t have before.”
© Provided by The Guardian Protesters hold hands to keep watch during a night-time demonstration against the military coup in Yangon Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Zaw Myat Lynn was the second senior NLD aide to perish as the result of alleged torture, according to Ba Myo Thein, an MP in the now-dissolved upper house. Days earlier, Khin Maung Latt, 58, a local NLD chairman in Yangon, also died in detention. A party leader said pictures showed he had a wound on the back of his head and bruises on his back.

Since the 1 February coup, the military has shot dead more than 80 people, and arrested over 2,100, amid demonstrations across the country and a general strike. Last week, it accused Aung San Suu Kyi of taking bribes worth $1.3m (£934,000) in cash and gold. Her lawyer has dismissed the charges as a “joke”. But they carry a long prison sentence and represent an escalation of the regime’s attempts to silence her.

According to witnesses, the police had carried out previous operations at Zaw Myat Lynn’s township, which is separated from central Yangon by the Hlaing River. On 21 February, officers opened fire on unarmed protesters. “As a police vehicle entered into the street, we tried to stop them. Police suddenly shot a man in the head and then drove away,” said Myint Myat Thu who saw the shooting.

Zaw Myat Lynn had met Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been under arrest since the coup, and worked for her humanitarian foundation. In the months leading up to the coup he had helped the fight against Covid in Myanmar. “He was well respected and well known in the civil disobedience movement,” a fellow activist, who declined to be named, said.

During the 8 March raid at Zaw Myat Lynn’s institute, three students and three local residents were arrested. Computers, vehicles, phones and money at the school were confiscated, according to Ko Min Wai, a teacher volunteer. The school has offered free training courses on computers, language and mechanics to young people in Shwe Pyi Thar.

Photos from the funeral show Zaw Myat Lynn’s wife crying over an open coffin, surrounded by mourners. “It is not possible,” Ko Min Wai said. “I can’t bear this. How could they do this to an unarmed civilian? Even I was in tears after I heard of this shocking death.”

Beijing smothered by hazardous yellow smog

AFP 1 hour ago

Beijing was cloaked by a thick yellow smog on Monday with pollution surging to hazardous levels as a sandstorm swept across China's capital
.
© GREG BAKER Beijing's city government ordered all schools to cancel outside sport and events and advised those with respiratory diseases not to go out

City residents used goggles, masks and hair nets to protect themselves from the choking air, with landmarks including the Forbidden City and the distinctive headquarters of state broadcaster CCTV partly obscured behind an apocalyptic-looking pall of smog.
© GREG BAKER City residents used goggles, masks and hair nets to protect themselves from the choking air

The city government ordered all schools to cancel outside sport and events and advised those with respiratory diseases to stay inside.

The poor air quality was due to a sandstorm from northern Mongolia, carried south by the wind and reducing visibility in Beijing to less than 1,000 metres (3,300 feet), state media reported.

Discussion of the orange haze lit up online discussions -- with more than 54 million views on social media platform Weibo by Monday morning. Some users said the air was reminiscent of the apocalyptic science fiction film "Interstellar."

LEO RAMIREZ The poor air quality was due to a sandstorm from northern Mongolia, according to state media

"This orange red sandstorm makes it looks like the end of the world," said one Weibo user.

Pollution in the city was at "hazardous" levels, according to air quality monitoring website Aqicn.

It said levels of PM 10 large particulate matter were nearly 20 times the World Health Organization's recommended daily maximum exposure.

Smaller PM 2.5 particles, which seep deep into human lungs and cause respiratory illnesses, were also at a hazardous level of 567 on Monday -- more than 20 times the WHO recommended daily limit.

China cut its national average level of airborne PM 2.5 dramatically between 2015 and 2019 and the government has announced an ambitious target to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.

bur-rox/apj/rhb/gle
Temple Grandin and Ros Blackburn speak at global autism conference in Edmonton

Lauren Boothby 
EDMONTON JOURNAL
 3/14/2021

Temple Grandin looked at how astronauts spent their time on a space station to create a routine to help her throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.© Provided by Edmonton Journal NATIONAL POST STAFF PHOTO // TORONTO February 06, 2009--Animal expert Temple Grandin poses for a portrait Marriott Residence Inn, 255 Wellington St. W. Toronto Friday, February 6, 2009. Grandin has designed ways to make livestock more comfortable. Brett Gundlock/National Post (For story by Adam McDowell, Weekend Post section)

Grandin was one of two high-profile autism lecturers, along with Ros Blackburn, who spoke to Edmontonians in a virtual conference by the Children’s Autism Services of Edmonton on Saturday amid COVID-19. They also highlighted what may be a difficult transition for some autistic people post-pandemic.

Getting up, taking a shower and getting dressed for work at the same time every day, regardless of what Grandin had planned for the day, and looking at astronaut’s routines on a space station has helped her cope, she said, and she recommends others do the same. Before the pandemic, she regularly travelled for speaking engagements.


“They have a schedule. They wake up in the morning, they have to get dressed, they can’t be in just whatever they sleep in, do their scientific work, do their maintenance, and then they have a mid-day meal … and then they have their exercise,” she said.

“And then they have time to have fun.”

While many have experienced mental health issues from isolation, a lack of physical and social contact with people, Blackburn said that hasn’t been her personal experience.

“As someone with autism, it’s actually been really quite refreshing to be able to not have to make social contact. I’ve been able to keep myself very occupied as well,” she said at the conference.

But once the pandemic ends, routines will shift again, and the transition may be difficult, she said.

Blackburn said she’s dreading going back into the world and it might be a lot to handle.

“Whether I will have regressed and lost some skills, we don’t know. I’m not going to get worried about it. We will face that if we need to. I think I will be I will feel very overwhelmed, the world will seem huge … it’s daunting,” she said in an interview after the meeting.

“I can’t at the moment envisage being motivated enough to make a huge effort … mix with other people to, to play the social game, as it were.”

The transition back is something she thinks everyone, regardless of if they are autistic or not, will find a challenge to navigate.

Terri Duncan, executive director of Children’s Autism Services of Edmonton, said some autistic children found going between learning in the classroom to distance learning, and back and forth between as rules changed during the pandemic, has been difficult for them and their families.

She said some kids have been overwhelmed with anxiety during the pandemic and struggled with learning online, and have been wanting to spend more time outside.

“COVID has really, really pushed them into a difficult place with their mental health with their anxiety, and COVID has made them so anxious,” she said in an interview after the meeting.

“The regression is something we worry about with our kids, and it is something that we have to keep an eye on.”

While some avoided following the latest COVID-19 developments in the news, both Grandin and Blackburn said they dealt with fear through knowledge, reading a lot of research about the disease and it made them feel less afraid.
Guimet Museum in Paris brings Bamiyan Buddhas back to life, 20 years on

Issued on: 11/03/2021 - 

The Bamiyan Buddhas were sculpted out of a cliff. © France 24

Text by: 
FRANCE 24

Video by:
Andrew HILLIAR|Aurélien PORCHER|Sylvain ROUSSEAU


Twenty years after the destruction of Afghanistan's Bamiyan Buddhas by the Taliban, the Guimet Museum in Paris is paying tribute to the dramatic 6th- and 7th-century sculptures and to the people of Bamiyan, the Hazara Shiites slain by the Taliban at the dawn of this century.

French archaeologists Joseph and Ria Hackin revealed the statues to the Western world nearly a century ago.

A cultural crossroads on the ancient Silk Road, Bamiyan was a centre of Buddhist teaching in the 6th century A.D., when two giant Buddhist statues were sculpted into the rockface of its cliffs. The statues served as a reminder of that golden age until March 11, 2001, when they were blown up by the Taliban, which also ordered the execution of 10,000 Hazara Shiites in the area.

"Bamiyan was the first assassination carried out this century and was the harbinger of other rivers of blood," artist and historian Pascal Convert told FRANCE 24 at the Guimet Museum. "After their destruction on March 11, there was September 11. The twinning of the Buddhas. The twin towers. The twin aspect of the number 11."

FRANCE 24's Sylvain Rousseau, Mandi Heshmati and Aurélien Porcher filed this report, voiced by Andrew Hilliar.

 

Artist Kubra Khademi paints a provocative picture of Afghan womanhood

The stark, sensual lines of her female nudes make for a subversive selection of imagery. In her latest exhibition, Kubra Khademi juxtaposes intimate expressions of women's sexuality with the texts of Persian poet, Rumi. The result is an explicit, playful and idiosyncratic collection of images which challenge the taboos within Afghan society. Living and working in Paris since 2015, Kubra tells us about the performance art that forced her to flee her home country.

Also, 20 years after the destruction of the Buddhas of Bamiyan, we discuss how Afghan cultural heritage has been the victim of years of war and political instability, and the consequences for people living there today.

France's war on drugs: Harsh laws vs. high consumption

In this week's show, we explore illegal drugs in France. Despite having some of Europe’s strictest drug laws, France has the highest rate of cannabis consumption on the continent. So what does the law say? And where is public opinion on the issue? We take a closer look in this edition of French Connections.

A ONE TERM PREMIER
POLLING 338Canada:
A major warning sign for Jason Kenney’s UCP

Philippe J. Fournier 
3/14/2021

Since the Wildrose and PC merger back in 2017, the Alberta NDP didn’t lead in any voting intention polls in the province until late fall of 2020. 

While several polls throughout 2020 clearly indicated that many Albertans were less than enthused with Jason Kenney’s handling of the pandemic, the United Conservative Party (UCP) was still consistently polling either in first place or tied with the NDP, until a poll from Research Co. measured the NDP with a narrow 3-point lead in December. 

Eyebrows were raised, but surely the new year would bring a return to normal?

© Used with permission of / © St. Joseph Communications. 
Kenney holds a COVID-19 briefing in Edmonton on March 20, 2020 (CP/Jason Franson)

In January, Mainstreet Research released its own numbers in the Western Standard which gave the NDP a stunning 17-point lead over the UCP, and a renewed Wildrose Party (now a pro-independence party), rising on the UCP’s right flank. However, it was argued that Mainstreet’s poll had coincided with the several media stories of UCP MLAs and staff who had travelled to sunny destinations during the Holiday break. Perhaps those numbers only reflected a knee-jerk, temporary anti-UCP sentiment that would subside in the following weeks?

Lo and behold: Two additional Alberta polls were released this week from the Angus Reid Institute and Léger, and, although both polls showed radically different numbers, they both confirm the UCP has been bleeding support since the end of 2020:

CLICK ON INFOGRAPICS  TO ENLARGE 
© Provided by Maclean's


First: The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) measured the NDP at 41 per cent province-wide, three points ahead of the UCP. Considering the size of the poll’s sample, this result should be read as a statistical tie between the two parties. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that this represents a 7-point swing in favour of the NDP compared to ARI’s previous Alberta poll in November. The poll’s regional subsamples indicates the NDP is leading in both Calgary and Edmonton, but trailing the UCP in the regions of Alberta. Of note: ARI measures a significant gender gap (which we have observed in previous Alberta polls): Among male voters, the UCP leads 42 to 36 per cent; among women voters, the NDP holds a 12-point lead (46 to 34 per cent).


Second: Léger, one of the top-rated pollsters in the country, released a real head-scratcher for Postmedia this weekend. According to this new poll, the NDP pulls ahead with 51 per cent of voting intentions in the province, a crushing 21-point margin over the UCP among decided and leaning voters. The NDP leads by 40 points in Edmonton, 16 points in Calgary, and, more shockingly, 9 points in the regions of Alberta. Rachel Notley’s NDP is also in first among all age groups—including a 32-point lead among the 18 to 34 year-old demographic. The poll shows no significant gender gap however: the NDP is ahead by 19 points with men and by 23 points among women.

What to make of these diverging numbers? Canadian pollsters as a general rule have had a rough time in recent Alberta elections. In the 2019 provincial Alberta election, Léger underestimated the UCP by five points, and Angus Reid overestimated the NDP by 6 points. Months later in the federal election, although polling firms scored generally well in their national numbers, polls underestimated the federal Conservatives in Alberta by an average of 10 points. Naturally, two occurrences don’t make a rule, but it does at least make us weary that polls may once again be underestimating the right-wing vote in the province.



© Provided by Maclean's



We add these newest polls in the 338Canada Alberta model and present today this updated Alberta projection. A word of warning before going further however: Readers will notice a high degree of uncertainty in these projections. These large confidence intervals are not a bug, but a feature, caused by the significant spread in the latest polls. When data is uncertain, projections are bound to be uncertain as well.

If an election were held in Alberta this week, the NDP and UCP would be projected in a dead heat that could be decided by no more than a handful of districts. The NDP wins an average of 45 seats, including near-sweeps of Edmonton and Calgary. As for the UCP, although it is projected ahead in 45 electoral districts, the fact that it is favoured in all eight “toss up” districts brings the party’s average to 42 seats. The threshold for a majority at the Legislative Assembly of Alberta is 44 seats:



© Provided by Maclean's



As you may notice on the graph below, both probability density curves overlap almost perfectly. The seat projection confidence intervals range roughly from the mid-30s to the mid-50s for both parties:



© Provided by Maclean's



The NDP wins 55 per cent of all 100,000 simulations performed by the 338Canada model, odds barely better than a coin flip. In a hypothetical scenario where numbers such as these are the last ones available before voting day, there would be no clear-cut favourite. The projection would simply be too close to call:



© Provided by Maclean's



Naturally, more polling would be necessary to have a clearer picture of the landscape as the UCP is nearing the mid-point of its mandate. Despite these poor results for the UCP, there are nevertheless some silver linings for Jason Kenney in these numbers.

First, poll after poll in the past six months, Kenney has been among the most poorly rated premier in Canada on his handling of the pandemic (Angus Reid’s had his approval rating at 39 per cent, and Léger at 40 per cent), yet his party is still projected in a dead heat with the NDP. The election is still two years away, so there is, theoretically, plenty of time for the UCP to rebound.

Second, the UCP still enjoys a mathematical seat advantage over the NDP. The projection shows the UCP could potentially lose the popular vote in a general election by as much 3 or 4 points behind the NDP, and still win the most seats. The fact that the NDP runs up the score with urban voters skews the projection in favour of the UCP—in ways similar to the federal Conservatives running up the score in Alberta and Saskatchewan in 2019, only to come up well short in the seat count despite winning the popular vote over the federal Liberals.

Additionally, the Léger poll also measured a high level of undecided and discreet voters (27 per cent). Could conservative voters in Alberta currently unsatisfied with the UCP and Jason Kenney decide to “park” their theoretical vote with undecideds, but still come back into the UCP fold come next election? It certainly is a plausible hypothesis.

Still, this should be a major warning sign to the UCP. Complacency was among the many factors that sank the Progressive Conservatives in the 2015 election, which resulted with a near-perfect split of the right-of-centre vote between the PC and former Wildrose, and allowing the NDP to sneak through both of them. Disgruntled voters tend to vote in lesser droves than motivated ones, and clearly the NDP base appears motivated to regain power in Edmonton in two years—something no political party in Alberta has ever done.

Follow 338Canada on Twitter

* * *

For details on this Alberta projection, visit the 338Canada Alberta page. Find your home riding in this list or use the regional links below:
Calgary
Edmonton
Northern Alberta
Central Alberta
Southern Alberta

The future of Big Oil flaring in the Permian Basin and the climate challenge

Samantha Subin CNBC
3/14/2021

The recent Texas extreme weather events, energy supply shortages and power outages heightened attention to the issue of flaring in the oil and gas industry.

Greenhouse gas emissions through routine natural gas flaring is widespread among energy companies as part of crude oil production.

Global gas flares emit more than 300 million tons of CO2 every year, and some U.S. states have begun targeting the practice through legislation.

© Provided by CNBC Pumpjacks operate in the snow in the Permian Basin in Midland, Texas, U.S, on Saturday, Feb. 13, 2021.

When a raging snowstorm and frigid temperatures hit Texas last month, oil and gas behemoths responsible for producing and processing the lion share of the nation's reserves, including Exxon, Occidental and Marathon Petroleum, shut down production at oil wells and refineries across the state.

For many oil producers in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the shutdown put upstream and downstream operations in a squeeze. Downstream, multiple refining operations flared during shutdowns, releasing air pollutants from processing units. Upstream, as oil drilling came back online, there was risk of needing to flare or halt oil production in the field until the broader energy market, including refining and utility generation, stabilized. Indeed, satellite imagery showed increased flaring at oil and gas production sites in the Permian Basin did take place, according to the Environmental Defense Fund.

But at Occidental, a choice was made to shut down some operations.


"There were a couple of plants that had difficulty coming back online," Occidental's CEO Vicki Hollub said during a recent CNBC Evolve event focused on energy innovation. "We could have put our production back online and just flared the gas. We chose not to do that. We left the production shut down because we didn't want to flare."

The decisions made during the Texas power crisis are part of a broader debate with the oil and gas industry over flaring, the process of releasing greenhouse gas emissions through burning, which has long been a controversial topic for environmental advocates and climate policy experts. The practice, which is commonly used by oil and gas companies to relieve the pressure that builds up during oil production, is responsible for releasing CO2 and methane into the atmosphere.


A more ambitious Big Oil goal


The flaring issue is a global one. According to the World Bank Group, global gas flares burn approximately 140 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, emitting more than 300 million tons of CO2. Hundreds of companies, governments and oil corporations around the world have signed onto the organization's Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 Initiative, which aims to eliminate all routine flaring within the next decade. While flaring is often used in cases where there's safety concerns or maintenance issues, routine flaring means the flaring of gas associated with oil production.

Several big oil and gas companies including Occidental, Chevron and Shell have signed onto the pact. Zubin Bamji, program manager of the World Bank's Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership, said reducing gas flaring is attainable for many of these companies and is a "low-hanging fruit" among other methods to reduce emissions.

Some experts say U.S. companies, specifically, need a more ambitious goal toward stopping routine flaring. The World Bank agreement focuses predominantly on reducing emissions in countries lacking the regulatory capacity and the infrastructure, but some experts say U.S. companies can accomplish the feat by 2025.

"Here in Texas, we're talking about a 100-year-old basin," said Colin Leyden, the director of regulatory and legislative affairs the Environmental Defense Fund. "2030 works on the global framework, but it lacks ambition domestically here in the U.S."

But flaring often remains a cheaper alternative to pushing the gas to market, and flaring often comes down to the fundamentals of supply and demand.
Alternatives to flaring

The process of halting routine flaring, by methods such as rewiring gas for electricity or internal uses, isn't difficult in and of itself, says Gunnar Schade, an atmospheric scientist and associate professor at Texas A&M University who has written extensively on the topic. The technology is there, it's a question of whether the companies want to make the investment and put in the money.

Occidental's New Mexico operations now use a gas gathering system linked to third-party capacity and pipeline supply arrangements which it says reduced 2019 annual carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) flaring emissions by more than 60% versus what would have been emitted otherwise, and that can be used in other upstream oil and gas projects to reduce flaring, the company said in an annual climate report.

As one recent report on flaring stated, "If most associated gas goes to sales, the dilemma about how to manage it becomes largely moot."

Getting natural gas out of the Permian Basin to market is the preferred solution of the industry, but the natural gas market has been marked by oversupply and low prices for years, and for many companies, the economic analysis does not favor a major change in current operations.

There are onsite solutions that could become scalable. Some alternatives include building pipelines to pump gas back into businesses for heat and electricity, or the implementation of vapor recovery units which can collect vapors and reduce emissions.

"The important thing to realize here is that stopping entails investments because flaring is free, you don't have to pay anything for it, the atmosphere is a free sewer," Schade said.

Renewed focus on climate change

If natural gas prices were higher on a consistent basis, the flaring issue would not be as significant, Leyden says, but with a long-term, low-price outlook for natural gas, a new regulatory framework to realign incentives is needed.

Flaring is currently legal, meaning regulatory policies that encourage using gas for other purposes are required. Some states are making progress. New Mexico recently began debating a bill to manage flaring and venting, while advocacy groups and legislatures in Texas are slated to debate two bills which target the practice, one of which would put a 25% tax on gas vented or flared while extracting oil.

Typically, flaring involves burning off the gas atop a large tower or stack. It's often used when oil companies lack facilities or markets available for the leftover gas. While the practice may be more environmentally friendly than venting, a process which releases natural gas straight into the atmosphere, it's still a key source of methane, CO2 and emissions of other problematic compounds which can have drastic effects on human health.

Technological advancements over the years have streamlined the process of flaring and its efficiency, but organizations still say the practice is responsible for a large portion of emissions. According to data from The World Bank, between 2014 and 2018, the United States ranked among the top five flaring countries globally, behind Russia, Iraq and Iran.

In recent years, oil giants have increased focus on emissions reduction, including Exxon, which plans to cut methane emissions by 40% to 50% and flaring by 35% to 45% by 2025. British oil giant BP and Royal Dutch Shell outlined plans toward net zero emissions by 2050. An end to routine flaring is part of these commitments, but the companies need to take the expensive steps now to reengineer their operations.

"There are a lot of different options out there, but the problem is they all come with a cost," Leyden said. "As long as flaring is an option because of a loose regulatory framework, it's going to be difficult for these options to catch on."

Occidental was the first U.S. oil company to sign onto the World Bank no flaring policy by 2030.

Texas energy crisis and new policy


Amid the Texas crisis, companies struggled to procure sources of power generations like natural gas, yet at the same time, companies continued to burn it off as natural gas and electricity prices rose, an issue that left some consumers and industry critics dumbfounded.

"I can tell you, we have flared in the past, we also have to flare sometimes when third party plants go down, but what we're trying best to do is minimize that," Hollub said at the recent CNBC Evolve event.

Many oil and gas companies like Occidental are more sensitive to the environmental issues at the forefront of investor efforts. The world's largest money manager, BlackRock, will require companies it invests in to disclose direct emissions. Earlier this year, President Biden rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement, calling on agencies to review and reinstate regulations dismissed under the Trump administration.

"I would much rather have us, business, do it ourselves and that's one of my big cries out in this letter: we need to do it ourselves before the government does it for us," said BlackRock CEO Larry Fink earlier this year after releasing the company's 2021 letter to CEOs, which called for more climate change disclosure from companies.

VIDEO The future of Big Oil flaring in the Permian Basin and the climate challenge (msn.com)

"We've had a lack of oversight on oil and gas," Leyden said.

The Railroad Commission of Texas, which has jurisdiction over the industry's operations but has not in the past cracked down on it, has recently moved to take a closer look as investors and legislators place more attention on the issue. The recent energy crisis could be a turning point for the self-regulation approach in the state.

"The large amounts of flaring are a microcosm of what can result from self regulation," Leyden said. "The investment community is lining up around 2025. It has to happen rapidly. 2030, that's a decade out and this is one of the easier things they can do from a policy standpoint."

The scale of flaring in the Permian is significant. New markets — and costs such as taxes on flaring or strict permitting requirements for new wells — could incentivize companies to see the economics of flaring differently, combined with the investor focus on ESG.

"If you have a policy that says we won't tolerate routine flaring, that you can't bring an oil well online, can't start pumping until you have destination for the gas, that will change the economics around midstream as well and increase the need to invest in the infrastructure," Leyden said.

2019 analysis from the Baker Institute at Rice University noted that if all flared or vented gas in the Permian was captured and liquefied, it could fill a Q-Max LNG carrier (the world's largest carrier size) every 10 days. The report added, "If that vessel went to China and discharged its cargo into a power plant, it could likely displace approximately 440 thousand tonnes of coal burned to generate electricity."

"Every company that has operations with flaring is now under pressure ... not just pressure from shareholders and employees but the entire world to reduce flaring and I don't see that focus and pressure letting off," said Amy Chronis, leader of Deloitte's U.S. oil, gas and chemicals sector.