David Staples: COVID threatens to take out Jason Kenney and his greatest political achievement, the UCP
It's no easy thing to hold on to the job of premier of Alberta. The previous four premiers, Ed Stelmach, Alison Redford, Jim Prentice and Rachel Notley, were all turfed before winning a first or second term
Author of the article:David Staples • Edmonton Journal
Publishing date:Sep 24, 2021 •
Premier Jason Kenney standing in front of Jason Copping the newly appointed Minister of Health during a news conference in Edmonton, September 21, 2021.
UCP members face a few big questions in deciding Kenney’s fate: How much of the problem is simply COVID presenting a unique political challenge to all conservative parties? And how much of the UCP’s problem comes from Kenney’s own blunders?
There’s no doubt COVID presents a nasty political dilemma for conservatives. Kenney himself is well aware of it. On Tuesday, he pointed out how COVID cut into Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole’s vote in the federal election. In Alberta, 7.4 per cent of voters went for the one anti-lockdown, anti-vaccine party, the People’s Party of Canada. “It was a largely a statement against public health restrictions and the vaccine program,” Kenney said, noting this group is “very angry.”
As for his own UCP, Kenney said: “It’s no secret that there are a lot of supporters of my party who don’t like public health restrictions. There are others who don’t like our very focused efforts to increase vaccination.”
But along with COVID’s tricky politics for conservatives, Kenney’s leadership has been hammered by his own mistakes and shortcomings.
I go by the “nine lives rule” when it comes to assessing leaders in highly contested arenas, from professional sports to big league politics. After a leader makes nine major mistakes — errors that many of his own supporters admit were errors or are widely perceived by a majority of the general public as errors — he or she is in big trouble.
As I see it, Kenney has used up his nine lives.
1. His government invested in the Keystone XL pipeline in April 2020, essentially making a bet that pro-pipeline U.S. president Donald Trump would be re-elected. It was a poor bet.
2. The UCP put forward a K-6 curriculum with a social studies curriculum that had sections deemed offensive by a great many Albertans. If this wasn’t bad enough, the controversy undermined the entire curriculum rewrite project, even as the new UCP curriculum will bring in excellent improvements to huge problem areas in Alberta education, K-6 teaching in math, computer sciences and reading and writing.
3. Kenney was slow to recognize how poorly having his staff and MLAs travel at Christmas played with the public, especially with that faction of his supporters who hated strict lockdown measures. They blamed Kenney for imposing restrictions and were gobsmacked that his own people would travel to places such as Hawaii and England.
4 & 5. When major COVID waves brewed up in Alberta in November and this past month, Kenney was slow both times to bring in strict measures to help slow the outbreak. Nor did he do a strong job explaining the nature of his COVID policy dilemma. Those of us who recognize the grave harms of lockdowns give credit to Kenney for mentioning them as much as any premier, but he hasn’t effectively sold that message to Albertans, many of whom still act as if there are no dire consequences to lockdown and still believe his slowness to act comes down to “ideology,” instead of this complicated balancing of harms.
6. In early June, photos were taken of Kenney and his ministers on the Sky Palace patio relaxing with drinks, and not properly social distancing. It blew up big, but mainly because Kenney was slow to apologize for a relatively minor social distancing infraction.
7. Kenney’s base firmly supports investigating the foreign funding of environmental groups, but how many of them support the years it’s taking for the Allan Inquiry to issue a report?
8. Alberta’s “Open for Summer” policy turned out to be an over-reach, but that mistake was greatly compounded by Kenney’s over-enthusiastic messaging this summer about the pandemic being over once and for all.
9. At the start of the pandemic, Kenney continued to have a cold attitude towards health-care workers over ongoing pay disputes. It was no time to engage in such fights but, again, Kenney was slow to realize it.
It’s no easy thing to hold on to the job of premier of Alberta. The previous four premiers, Ed Stelmach, Alison Redford, Jim Prentice and Rachel Notley, were all turfed before winning a first or second term.
Adding COVID to the mix increased the degree of difficulty for Kenney from a double to a quadruple jump.
The only thing that might save him? COVID ICU rates dropping fast pronto and not coming back, taking COVID off the table as a major issue.
I don’t like those odds.
And if the virus continues to roll over us, the UCP is likely to formally fracture into warring camps.
Carson Jerema: Jason Kenney was never in danger of being overthrown by the party he created
But the premier remains unpopular and the health system is still in crisis
Author of the article: Carson Jerema
Publishing date:Sep 24, 2021 •
Jason Kenney greets supporters at the United Conservative Party 2019 election headquarters in Calgary on Tuesday, April 16, 2019.
PHOTO BY JIM WELLS/POSTMEDIA
Article content
To call Alberta’s would-be rebels disorganized would be a compliment. The handful of MLAs who reportedly spoke against Premier Jason Kenney’s leadership at a Calgary caucus meeting on Wednesday had complaints ranging from too many COIVD restrictions, to not enough, to personal grievances, to concerns over the United Conservative Party’s electability. Yet after days of agitating for the premier to resign, they dropped their knives as soon as they drew them.
This is how it was always destined to end. Kenney bears responsibility for a crashing health-care system when his “open for good” plan backfired after a wave of unvaccinated COVID-19 patients filled the province’s already-expanded intensive care spaces. But the UCP is Kenney’s party. It isn’t that much of an exaggeration to say he willed it into existence. Who on earth would this disparate group replace him with? Who would even want the job?
After the province introduced a vaccine passport last week, the group of malcontents succeeded in leaving the impression that there was a crisis of leadership to match the crisis in Alberta’s overflowing hospitals. The push to remove Kenney was, we now know, either an exaggeration or embarrassingly haphazard. Enough MLAs supported the UCP leader at the meeting, or as the Calgary Sun’s Rick Bell put it, were “willing to kiss the premier’s ring.” An anticipated motion of non-confidence was dropped.
That proposal was brought by R.J. Sigurdson, a southern Alberta MLA who’s opposed to restrictions. The others who spoke against Kenney haven’t been publicly confirmed, but unruly MLAs haven’t exactly been quiet. Sigurdson was among 15 members who signed a letter criticizing health measures back in April. The signatories also included Angela Pitt, who advises her constituents to “do their own research” on vaccines, and Jason Stephan, one of the MLAs caught up in the travel controversy over Christmas.
Former culture minister Leela Aheer told the Calgary Herald’s Don Braid after Health Minister Tyler Shandro was shuffled to a new post Tuesday, that, “The only thing that should have happened today is that the premier says he had failed and is stepping down.” Aheer, unlike the others, has been an advocate for stronger health measures, but she may hold a grudge after being kicked out of cabinet earlier this year. Richard Gottfried, one of the few members left over from the former Progressive Conservative party, also favours more restrictions and has been complaining publicly.
Never mind Alberta, is there anyone on the planet who could satisfy this group if they succeeded in turfing Kenney? What appeared to be a caucus in turmoil seems no more than the consequence of Kenney allowing MLAs a freer hand to say what they want, which is novel in Canada, where parties tend to whip their members into compliance.
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To call Alberta’s would-be rebels disorganized would be a compliment. The handful of MLAs who reportedly spoke against Premier Jason Kenney’s leadership at a Calgary caucus meeting on Wednesday had complaints ranging from too many COIVD restrictions, to not enough, to personal grievances, to concerns over the United Conservative Party’s electability. Yet after days of agitating for the premier to resign, they dropped their knives as soon as they drew them.
This is how it was always destined to end. Kenney bears responsibility for a crashing health-care system when his “open for good” plan backfired after a wave of unvaccinated COVID-19 patients filled the province’s already-expanded intensive care spaces. But the UCP is Kenney’s party. It isn’t that much of an exaggeration to say he willed it into existence. Who on earth would this disparate group replace him with? Who would even want the job?
After the province introduced a vaccine passport last week, the group of malcontents succeeded in leaving the impression that there was a crisis of leadership to match the crisis in Alberta’s overflowing hospitals. The push to remove Kenney was, we now know, either an exaggeration or embarrassingly haphazard. Enough MLAs supported the UCP leader at the meeting, or as the Calgary Sun’s Rick Bell put it, were “willing to kiss the premier’s ring.” An anticipated motion of non-confidence was dropped.
That proposal was brought by R.J. Sigurdson, a southern Alberta MLA who’s opposed to restrictions. The others who spoke against Kenney haven’t been publicly confirmed, but unruly MLAs haven’t exactly been quiet. Sigurdson was among 15 members who signed a letter criticizing health measures back in April. The signatories also included Angela Pitt, who advises her constituents to “do their own research” on vaccines, and Jason Stephan, one of the MLAs caught up in the travel controversy over Christmas.
Former culture minister Leela Aheer told the Calgary Herald’s Don Braid after Health Minister Tyler Shandro was shuffled to a new post Tuesday, that, “The only thing that should have happened today is that the premier says he had failed and is stepping down.” Aheer, unlike the others, has been an advocate for stronger health measures, but she may hold a grudge after being kicked out of cabinet earlier this year. Richard Gottfried, one of the few members left over from the former Progressive Conservative party, also favours more restrictions and has been complaining publicly.
Never mind Alberta, is there anyone on the planet who could satisfy this group if they succeeded in turfing Kenney? What appeared to be a caucus in turmoil seems no more than the consequence of Kenney allowing MLAs a freer hand to say what they want, which is novel in Canada, where parties tend to whip their members into compliance.
Carson Jerema: Alberta travel controversy makes Jason Kenney even more vulnerable on the right
Whatever one’s opinions of the Alberta NDP’s policies, former premier Rachel Notley’s four years in government were relatively drama free thanks to party discipline — a trait that has also made it effective in opposition. The NDP has been relentless in highlighting every COVID failure and has mobilized an army of supporters on social media. Notley always appears in control.
Even if Kenney has subdued this most recent challenge, and even if he survives a leadership review in the spring, he remains unpopular in Alberta. A Leger survey from late July had the NDP leading, with 45 per cent support among decided voters, compared to 33 per cent for the UCP. The lead holds in all areas of the province and among most age groups.
A more recent poll from Maru Public Opinion has Kenney’s approval rating at 32 per cent, the lowest among provincial premiers, and over 20 points below his rating after winning the 2019 election. Speculation abounds about whether the premier will step down on his own terms to save the party.
Alberta’s handling of the pandemic has ranged from disappointing to truly tragic. Just this week, the head of Alberta Health Services said that beds freeing up from dying patients is partly what’s keeping hospitals from overloading entirely. Restrictions were lowered or eliminated as quickly as possible and the government resisted bringing them back until it was forced to impose stricter rules than it otherwise might have. This was the case last fall, and is the case again today.
Kenney has tried to govern as if there was no pandemic, bringing in an aggressive legislative agenda throughout 2020, introducing a controversial school curriculum overhaul and scheduling a referendum on equalization for later this fall.
He kept his promise to cut corporate taxes by 40 per cent, which made sense before the pandemic, IT DID NOT MAKE SENSE EVEN THEN
but has failed to attract the investment it might have under normal circumstances. The removal of restrictions over the summer seemed as much foolish optimism as an attempt to fix rifts within his party and the province.
Kenney is now losing support to the left and the right, with a newly formed independence party garnering eight per cent support, despite having almost no profile.
The premier spent years campaigning in Alberta, first winning the Progressive Conservative leadership despite much hostility from within that party, then merging it with the Wildrose and finally winning government. All the while, Kenney preached the gospel of free markets, limited government, low taxes, good jobs and personal choice. He was often angry, but he had a clear vision. He presented himself as a rebel, despite being a career politician.
The rebels that have now come for Kenney definitely lack his drive. Will the voting public prove more determined?
Kenney is now losing support to the left and the right, with a newly formed independence party garnering eight per cent support, despite having almost no profile.
The premier spent years campaigning in Alberta, first winning the Progressive Conservative leadership despite much hostility from within that party, then merging it with the Wildrose and finally winning government. All the while, Kenney preached the gospel of free markets, limited government, low taxes, good jobs and personal choice. He was often angry, but he had a clear vision. He presented himself as a rebel, despite being a career politician.
The rebels that have now come for Kenney definitely lack his drive. Will the voting public prove more determined?
Don Martin: Jason Kenney's political fate is in the ICU - and failing fast
Don Martin Contributor
@DonMartinCTV
Voters dump political leaders for strange reasons; be it dithering (Paul Martin), poor House of Commons attendance (Michael Ignatieff), botched TV interviews (Stephane Dion) or simply because they’re tired of them (Stephen Harper).
But Kenney is confronting a full-throated justification for a pink slip thanks to his chronic tone-deafness during the pandemic, incredulously topped off by taking a two-week vacation in Europe this month as Albertans were dying from the consequences of his policies.
He’s lurched from pathetically bribing the vacillating unvaccinated with $100 to get their shot to now unleashing his Restriction Exemption Program, which is essentially the vaccine passport he promised to never introduce.
He’s shown more enthusiasm in funding a $30-million Ministry of Truth to attack those who tarnish the oil industry’s halo than he has refuting the epidemic of fake news driving vaccine hesitancy in Alberta.
And he couldn’t contain his own out-of-step ideology early in the pandemic by taking on doctors over their compensation scheme, triggering some to exit the province in its hour of greatest need.
If his leadership survives the party membership vote - a huge IF in my view - Kenney has two years to resurrect the UPC fortunes before facing the voters.
Now, lest we forget, Jason Kenney can change a lot in two years.
Kenney performed his version of Ralph Klein’s Miracle on the Prairie when he quit being an MP to claim the Alberta PC leadership, to merge that party with the Wild Rose Party, to clinch the leadership of the reunited Conservatives to winning a legislature seat to becoming premier, all of that in under three years.
But it’s now almost a given Kenney will enter the Alberta history books as a one-term blunder.
This week his negative influence was partly blamed for giving federal Liberals and the NDP a combined four-seat stake in their Alberta dead zones.
And there are concerns his raging unpopularity could contagion into Saskatchewan, Ontario and even New Brunswick if all conservative premiers are unfairly tarred as vaccine-hesitant and passport-adverse.
Jason Kenney, one of the most successful federal cabinet ministers under Stephen Harper, has become the Canadian textbook on how to do things wrong in a pandemic.
It’s been almost 30 years since Kenney’s star first started to shine as the anti-tax advocate who confronted then-premier Klein over the province’s lucrative MP pension plan.
Klein smelled a political threat from the articulate youngster, admitted it was too rich and cancelled the MP pension plan outright while asking voters to forgive him for being human.
The pugnacious Kenney, who dodges blame for his many mistakes and delivers cold shoulders better than empathy, would never consider going full reverse-thrust into such drastic change - and couldn’t successfully sell it even if he did.
That’s why the un-Klein of Alberta is in rapid decline with no Miracle on the Prairie repeat in sight.
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney answers questions at a news conference where the provincial government announced new restrictions because of the surging COVID cases in the province, in Calgary, Alta., Friday, Sept. 3, 2021.
Don Martin Contributor
@DonMartinCTV
September 24, 2021
OTTAWA -- All that was missing were pitchforks and torches when the United Conservative government MLAs gathered this week to decide the fate of their dead-premier-walking.
The caucus was seething - and fearing for their political lives – as fourth-wave case counts went tsunami, forcing the province to go bended-knee to the feds to help with ICUs filled to cattle-car capacity by the ventilated and the unvaccinated.
But then came a sign you should probably never underestimate Jason Kenney.
The premier pre-empted the kill-Kenney mood in the room by offering a leadership review next year so he could build the party back from the grave. If that vote tilted against him, he pledged to quit quietly and leave the party in recovery mode for his successor.
And then sources say a strange thing happened - Kenney stayed mostly silent for about five hours as MLAs vented at his failed coronavirus containment measures, which have made Alberta’s viral spread the worst in the country.
This is not normal Kenney behaviour. He’s a lousy listener, particularly in his caucus, and reacts harshly when challenged.
But despite slipping the noose until next year, a reprieve where he will no doubt use next month’s provincial referendum on ending equalization (which will never happen) to whip up anti-Ottawa hysteria, his reign as premier is in extreme peril.
OTTAWA -- All that was missing were pitchforks and torches when the United Conservative government MLAs gathered this week to decide the fate of their dead-premier-walking.
The caucus was seething - and fearing for their political lives – as fourth-wave case counts went tsunami, forcing the province to go bended-knee to the feds to help with ICUs filled to cattle-car capacity by the ventilated and the unvaccinated.
But then came a sign you should probably never underestimate Jason Kenney.
The premier pre-empted the kill-Kenney mood in the room by offering a leadership review next year so he could build the party back from the grave. If that vote tilted against him, he pledged to quit quietly and leave the party in recovery mode for his successor.
And then sources say a strange thing happened - Kenney stayed mostly silent for about five hours as MLAs vented at his failed coronavirus containment measures, which have made Alberta’s viral spread the worst in the country.
This is not normal Kenney behaviour. He’s a lousy listener, particularly in his caucus, and reacts harshly when challenged.
But despite slipping the noose until next year, a reprieve where he will no doubt use next month’s provincial referendum on ending equalization (which will never happen) to whip up anti-Ottawa hysteria, his reign as premier is in extreme peril.
Voters dump political leaders for strange reasons; be it dithering (Paul Martin), poor House of Commons attendance (Michael Ignatieff), botched TV interviews (Stephane Dion) or simply because they’re tired of them (Stephen Harper).
But Kenney is confronting a full-throated justification for a pink slip thanks to his chronic tone-deafness during the pandemic, incredulously topped off by taking a two-week vacation in Europe this month as Albertans were dying from the consequences of his policies.
He’s lurched from pathetically bribing the vacillating unvaccinated with $100 to get their shot to now unleashing his Restriction Exemption Program, which is essentially the vaccine passport he promised to never introduce.
He’s shown more enthusiasm in funding a $30-million Ministry of Truth to attack those who tarnish the oil industry’s halo than he has refuting the epidemic of fake news driving vaccine hesitancy in Alberta.
And he couldn’t contain his own out-of-step ideology early in the pandemic by taking on doctors over their compensation scheme, triggering some to exit the province in its hour of greatest need.
If his leadership survives the party membership vote - a huge IF in my view - Kenney has two years to resurrect the UPC fortunes before facing the voters.
Now, lest we forget, Jason Kenney can change a lot in two years.
Kenney performed his version of Ralph Klein’s Miracle on the Prairie when he quit being an MP to claim the Alberta PC leadership, to merge that party with the Wild Rose Party, to clinch the leadership of the reunited Conservatives to winning a legislature seat to becoming premier, all of that in under three years.
But it’s now almost a given Kenney will enter the Alberta history books as a one-term blunder.
This week his negative influence was partly blamed for giving federal Liberals and the NDP a combined four-seat stake in their Alberta dead zones.
And there are concerns his raging unpopularity could contagion into Saskatchewan, Ontario and even New Brunswick if all conservative premiers are unfairly tarred as vaccine-hesitant and passport-adverse.
Jason Kenney, one of the most successful federal cabinet ministers under Stephen Harper, has become the Canadian textbook on how to do things wrong in a pandemic.
It’s been almost 30 years since Kenney’s star first started to shine as the anti-tax advocate who confronted then-premier Klein over the province’s lucrative MP pension plan.
Klein smelled a political threat from the articulate youngster, admitted it was too rich and cancelled the MP pension plan outright while asking voters to forgive him for being human.
The pugnacious Kenney, who dodges blame for his many mistakes and delivers cold shoulders better than empathy, would never consider going full reverse-thrust into such drastic change - and couldn’t successfully sell it even if he did.
That’s why the un-Klein of Alberta is in rapid decline with no Miracle on the Prairie repeat in sight.
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney answers questions at a news conference where the provincial government announced new restrictions because of the surging COVID cases in the province, in Calgary, Alta., Friday, Sept. 3, 2021.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Todd Korol
DON MARTIN CTV NATIONAL POLITICAL AFFAIRS REPORTER CAME FROM CALGARY, HE WROTE A BIOGRAPHY OF RALPH KLEIN
Braid: Tears, grief and anger over the UCP's epic COVID-19 collapse
Author of the article: Don Braid • Calgary Herald
Publishing date: Sep 24, 2021
Calgary ICU staff working on patients in a crowded ICU.
PHOTO BY SUPPLIED BY AHS
Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt choked up while doing an interview. Dr. Verna Yiu, the head of Alberta Health Services, looked like she was about to cry as she said deaths are keeping the ICUs below capacity.
Coun. Jeff Davison, a candidate for mayor, told council that his six-year-old daughter had her vital kidney surgery postponed by AHS.
It’s unthinkable — a little child, denied crucial treatment because COVID-19 is spreading havoc through the whole health-care system.
So dire is the crisis that very sick patients may soon be “triaged” — a cold euphemism that means they will not get care.
A year ago, worried as we were by the pandemic, nobody would have dreamed the collapse could be so complete.
The government vowed then that its key goal was to protect the hospitals and health system, so that no Albertans would be denied service.
That promise — the very heart of the UCP’s whole pandemic policy — lies shattered, along with nearly every other health initiative.
The UCP backed away from a three per cent pay cut for nurses, but still wants a two per cent reduction, even as Quebec will give nurses a $15,000 bonus to stay on the job.
The government is locked in animosity with doctors 17 months after unilaterally cancelling their pay agreement.
The entire health system is filled with people who see the government that claims to support them as their sworn enemy.
It’s a toxic environment that I don’t believe can ever be cleared by this government, under this premier.
The UCP has inflicted on Albertans the worst policy and political failure since conservatives were first elected in this province in 1971.
I have some personal knowledge of Alberta government bungles going back to 1978 and can confidently say that no problem — not one political, social or economic uproar — comes close to this disaster that is killing people and wrecking a health-care system.
Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt choked up while doing an interview. Dr. Verna Yiu, the head of Alberta Health Services, looked like she was about to cry as she said deaths are keeping the ICUs below capacity.
Coun. Jeff Davison, a candidate for mayor, told council that his six-year-old daughter had her vital kidney surgery postponed by AHS.
It’s unthinkable — a little child, denied crucial treatment because COVID-19 is spreading havoc through the whole health-care system.
So dire is the crisis that very sick patients may soon be “triaged” — a cold euphemism that means they will not get care.
A year ago, worried as we were by the pandemic, nobody would have dreamed the collapse could be so complete.
The government vowed then that its key goal was to protect the hospitals and health system, so that no Albertans would be denied service.
That promise — the very heart of the UCP’s whole pandemic policy — lies shattered, along with nearly every other health initiative.
The UCP backed away from a three per cent pay cut for nurses, but still wants a two per cent reduction, even as Quebec will give nurses a $15,000 bonus to stay on the job.
The government is locked in animosity with doctors 17 months after unilaterally cancelling their pay agreement.
The entire health system is filled with people who see the government that claims to support them as their sworn enemy.
It’s a toxic environment that I don’t believe can ever be cleared by this government, under this premier.
The UCP has inflicted on Albertans the worst policy and political failure since conservatives were first elected in this province in 1971.
I have some personal knowledge of Alberta government bungles going back to 1978 and can confidently say that no problem — not one political, social or economic uproar — comes close to this disaster that is killing people and wrecking a health-care system.
Calgary ICU team check a screen to help intubate a patient.
PHOTO BY SUPPLIED BY AHS
The government caused the crisis through ideological rigidity, political influence on pandemic measures and the arrogant belief that men of power can simply declare COVID-19 over (“The pandemic is ending. Accept it.”) when scientists everywhere warned that it was not
The usual political scandals — ex-premier Alison Redford’s travels, for instance — can be highly emotional, but they rarely touch people’s lives at a deep level.
Most of all, they don’t cost lives. Today, death, misery and primal fear of a failed health system are making grown people of genuine empathy (a quality that seems lacking in leadership) weep with sadness and anger.
It is maddening, frankly, to hear Premier Jason Kenney try to diminish this crisis by stating Alberta has done well by national standards.
There was some truth to the claim through the third wave. But now Alberta is rivalled only by Saskatchewan, distantly, in the depth of defeat by the fourth wave.
When Kenney and his cabinet committee declared the pandemic over and done, there seemed to be no thought to the consequences of being wrong — lives lost, families grieving, medical staff exhausted to the point of collapse.
Kenney even managed to tie Open for Summer to the start of Stampede. This annoyed people elsewhere in the province who thought health care was being usurped by a Calgary rodeo.
Then the politicians went on holiday. The government started transferring people from COVID-19 duties to other areas. They were stripping staff even as the virus was gathering strength in plain sight.
One UCP insider told me that when Kenney was away (very likely in Europe, although he has never confirmed that), there was no place to go for advice or direction. Ministers and staffers just froze in place or went on vacation themselves.
The top leaders are like wartime generals who send the troops home on leave, and then watch helplessly as the enemy pours across the borders.
It’s tragic. And one day this government, when it finally faces the voters, may also come to tears.
Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Calgary Herald.
The government caused the crisis through ideological rigidity, political influence on pandemic measures and the arrogant belief that men of power can simply declare COVID-19 over (“The pandemic is ending. Accept it.”) when scientists everywhere warned that it was not
The usual political scandals — ex-premier Alison Redford’s travels, for instance — can be highly emotional, but they rarely touch people’s lives at a deep level.
Most of all, they don’t cost lives. Today, death, misery and primal fear of a failed health system are making grown people of genuine empathy (a quality that seems lacking in leadership) weep with sadness and anger.
It is maddening, frankly, to hear Premier Jason Kenney try to diminish this crisis by stating Alberta has done well by national standards.
There was some truth to the claim through the third wave. But now Alberta is rivalled only by Saskatchewan, distantly, in the depth of defeat by the fourth wave.
When Kenney and his cabinet committee declared the pandemic over and done, there seemed to be no thought to the consequences of being wrong — lives lost, families grieving, medical staff exhausted to the point of collapse.
Kenney even managed to tie Open for Summer to the start of Stampede. This annoyed people elsewhere in the province who thought health care was being usurped by a Calgary rodeo.
Then the politicians went on holiday. The government started transferring people from COVID-19 duties to other areas. They were stripping staff even as the virus was gathering strength in plain sight.
One UCP insider told me that when Kenney was away (very likely in Europe, although he has never confirmed that), there was no place to go for advice or direction. Ministers and staffers just froze in place or went on vacation themselves.
The top leaders are like wartime generals who send the troops home on leave, and then watch helplessly as the enemy pours across the borders.
It’s tragic. And one day this government, when it finally faces the voters, may also come to tears.
Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Calgary Herald.
How Alberta's Jason Kenney survived a possible caucus revolt — and what's next
'The premier is still a shrewd political operator'
Author of the article:Tyler Dawson
Publishing date:Sep 24, 2021 •
Premier Jason Kenney speaks at the daily COVID-19 update with Alberta's chief medical officer of health, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, on March 13, 2020.
PHOTO BY ED KAISER /Postmedia, file
Article content
EDMONTON — Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, having survived the possibility of a caucus revolt, now has roughly six months to prepare for a spring leadership review that has the potential to throw the United Conservative party into chaos prior to the next election.
In recent weeks, Kenney’s position has looked increasingly tenuous, while progressive Albertans, including the Opposition New Democrats, hammer the government for its handling of the pandemic.
But with no election immediately on the horizon, the most pressing threat to Kenney’s leadership has come from within his own party. With rumours swirling that Kenney could face removal by his caucus, sources floated names to reporters about potential replacements as UCP leader and premier, such as Finance Minister Travis Toews or Ric McIver, the transportation minister, and news reports detailed unhappiness within the ranks.
Alberta is no stranger to palace coups — similar plotting plagued premiers Ralph Klein, Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford — and political circles were aflame with gossip this week that yet another was about to unfold.
For now, though, Kenney has secured a stay on his political future.
“Going into that meeting, it was unclear whether or not we would see him come out as the leader of a united caucus or whether or not there would be some kind of move to express non-confidence in the leadership, and perhaps departures from caucus, either ejections or voluntarily,” said Matt Solberg, with New West Public Affairs, who also worked on the creation of the UCP. “The fact that none of that happened, I think is a demonstration that, first off, the premier is still a shrewd political operator.”
On Wednesday, when the caucus met in Calgary and over video link from Edmonton, an expected no-confidence motion on Kenney’s leadership never materialized.
Later in the evening, a letter was sent out to the party brass: Kenney had requested a review of his leadership to take place in the spring of 2022, at the party’s annual general meeting.
In a letter obtained by the National Post, Ryan Becker, the president of the UCP, said that would be the best way for the party’s grassroots to have their say about Kenney’s leadership.
“We are all aware that recent government decisions on responding to the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic have caused anger and frustration among some party members and there is a growing desire to hold a leadership review,” Becker’s letter said.
Kevin Wilson, the president of the Airdrie Cochrane constituency association, said this move “absolutely” takes some of the wind out of the sails of angry grassroots Albertans and members of the legislature.
“We’re in the fourth wave of the pandemic, it’s the worst we’ve ever seen it, do we want to change captains now? I don’t think so,” Wilson said. “The leadership review in the spring, I think, is the right move.”
For both sides — those who support Kenney, and those who do not, both inside and outside government — the leadership review “gives people a date to work towards,” Solberg said.
Kenney has made no secret of the fact that there are people within his caucus, and people who voted for his party, that have been angry about public-health restrictions and, more recently, the province’s vaccine passport system.
Wilson said any time the UCP does something, they’re looking at 80 per cent in favour to 20 per cent opposed within the party, and the pandemic has been no different. Nor has the internal fight over Kenney’s future.
“That 20 per cent seem to have the most noise,” Wilson said. “So what you’re hearing is ‘Yup, we want him to be removed as leader,’ but, again, that’s the 20 per cent.”
When reporters asked about his leadership, Kenney has said his focus is on the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and not internal politics. On Tuesday, Kenney shuffled Tyler Shandro from the health portfolio, moving Jason Copping from labour into the role.
“Right now, 100 per cent of my attention and that of my team and the whole government has to be focus on a life and death crisis that we’re facing,” Kenney told reporters after the shuffle.
On Thursday, a Kenney spokesman reiterated in an email that the premier remains focused on dealing with the fourth wave, and not internal politics.
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EDMONTON — Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, having survived the possibility of a caucus revolt, now has roughly six months to prepare for a spring leadership review that has the potential to throw the United Conservative party into chaos prior to the next election.
In recent weeks, Kenney’s position has looked increasingly tenuous, while progressive Albertans, including the Opposition New Democrats, hammer the government for its handling of the pandemic.
But with no election immediately on the horizon, the most pressing threat to Kenney’s leadership has come from within his own party. With rumours swirling that Kenney could face removal by his caucus, sources floated names to reporters about potential replacements as UCP leader and premier, such as Finance Minister Travis Toews or Ric McIver, the transportation minister, and news reports detailed unhappiness within the ranks.
Alberta is no stranger to palace coups — similar plotting plagued premiers Ralph Klein, Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford — and political circles were aflame with gossip this week that yet another was about to unfold.
For now, though, Kenney has secured a stay on his political future.
“Going into that meeting, it was unclear whether or not we would see him come out as the leader of a united caucus or whether or not there would be some kind of move to express non-confidence in the leadership, and perhaps departures from caucus, either ejections or voluntarily,” said Matt Solberg, with New West Public Affairs, who also worked on the creation of the UCP. “The fact that none of that happened, I think is a demonstration that, first off, the premier is still a shrewd political operator.”
On Wednesday, when the caucus met in Calgary and over video link from Edmonton, an expected no-confidence motion on Kenney’s leadership never materialized.
Later in the evening, a letter was sent out to the party brass: Kenney had requested a review of his leadership to take place in the spring of 2022, at the party’s annual general meeting.
In a letter obtained by the National Post, Ryan Becker, the president of the UCP, said that would be the best way for the party’s grassroots to have their say about Kenney’s leadership.
“We are all aware that recent government decisions on responding to the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic have caused anger and frustration among some party members and there is a growing desire to hold a leadership review,” Becker’s letter said.
Kevin Wilson, the president of the Airdrie Cochrane constituency association, said this move “absolutely” takes some of the wind out of the sails of angry grassroots Albertans and members of the legislature.
“We’re in the fourth wave of the pandemic, it’s the worst we’ve ever seen it, do we want to change captains now? I don’t think so,” Wilson said. “The leadership review in the spring, I think, is the right move.”
For both sides — those who support Kenney, and those who do not, both inside and outside government — the leadership review “gives people a date to work towards,” Solberg said.
**
Kenney has made no secret of the fact that there are people within his caucus, and people who voted for his party, that have been angry about public-health restrictions and, more recently, the province’s vaccine passport system.
Wilson said any time the UCP does something, they’re looking at 80 per cent in favour to 20 per cent opposed within the party, and the pandemic has been no different. Nor has the internal fight over Kenney’s future.
“That 20 per cent seem to have the most noise,” Wilson said. “So what you’re hearing is ‘Yup, we want him to be removed as leader,’ but, again, that’s the 20 per cent.”
When reporters asked about his leadership, Kenney has said his focus is on the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and not internal politics. On Tuesday, Kenney shuffled Tyler Shandro from the health portfolio, moving Jason Copping from labour into the role.
“Right now, 100 per cent of my attention and that of my team and the whole government has to be focus on a life and death crisis that we’re facing,” Kenney told reporters after the shuffle.
On Thursday, a Kenney spokesman reiterated in an email that the premier remains focused on dealing with the fourth wave, and not internal politics.
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney during a news conference regarding the surging COVID cases in the province on Sept. 15.
PHOTO BY AL CHAREST / POSTMEDIA
Within caucus, there has been a small, but noisy, contingent in opposition to pandemic restrictions. Their activities culminated in April with a letter, signed by 16 UCP MLAs, that said they did not support reintroduced restrictions in the third wave.
Roughly a month later, two UCP MLAs, Todd Loewen and Drew Barnes, were kicked out of caucus for “undermin(ing) government leadership,” according to caucus whip Mike Ellis. Loewen had called on Kenney to resign, and Barnes has been a persistent critic of the government’s public-health restrictions throughout the pandemic.
But they were far from the only UCP MLAs who desire fewer restrictions.
There are also caucus members who have criticized Kenney’s approach for being too lax. Among them are Calgary MLA Richard Gotfried and Chestermere MLA Leela Aheer. Last week, Gotfried wrote in a Facebook post that he was “deeply apologetic” for the government’s sloth in introducing fourth wave restrictions.
“Nothing was done while we lacked any leadership at the helm,” Gotfried wrote. “It will cost us lives and I am gutted by the lack of responsiveness to unequivocal advocacy and clear warning signs.”
The day before Wednesday’s caucus meeting, Aheer told the Calgary Herald that Kenney should resign. “We need leadership that cares deeply about the human beings in this province,” she said.
Gotfried declined to comment and the National Post was unable to reach Aheer.
Prior to Wednesday’s meeting, sources close to Kenney, while seemingly frustrated with the agitating, seemed fairly confident the whole affair was going to blow over — and that’s what happened.
Within caucus, there has been a small, but noisy, contingent in opposition to pandemic restrictions. Their activities culminated in April with a letter, signed by 16 UCP MLAs, that said they did not support reintroduced restrictions in the third wave.
Roughly a month later, two UCP MLAs, Todd Loewen and Drew Barnes, were kicked out of caucus for “undermin(ing) government leadership,” according to caucus whip Mike Ellis. Loewen had called on Kenney to resign, and Barnes has been a persistent critic of the government’s public-health restrictions throughout the pandemic.
But they were far from the only UCP MLAs who desire fewer restrictions.
There are also caucus members who have criticized Kenney’s approach for being too lax. Among them are Calgary MLA Richard Gotfried and Chestermere MLA Leela Aheer. Last week, Gotfried wrote in a Facebook post that he was “deeply apologetic” for the government’s sloth in introducing fourth wave restrictions.
“Nothing was done while we lacked any leadership at the helm,” Gotfried wrote. “It will cost us lives and I am gutted by the lack of responsiveness to unequivocal advocacy and clear warning signs.”
The day before Wednesday’s caucus meeting, Aheer told the Calgary Herald that Kenney should resign. “We need leadership that cares deeply about the human beings in this province,” she said.
Gotfried declined to comment and the National Post was unable to reach Aheer.
Prior to Wednesday’s meeting, sources close to Kenney, while seemingly frustrated with the agitating, seemed fairly confident the whole affair was going to blow over — and that’s what happened.
At Wednesday’s meeting, out of the 60-member UCP caucus, only around seven spoke up against Kenney’s leadership, a source with knowledge of the meeting told the National Post.
“The cabal was small, and then they … were nowhere near as aggressive as they were building up,” the source said.
“Jason was just like, ‘Cool, you know, let’s go around the room, let’s have a conversation, like, to be quite honest, I’m not afraid of this conversation.'”
“I think he actually believes he’s got to see Alberta through COVID and there’s nothing more politically important than that,” the source said.
Around 40 MLAs spoke in favour of the premier’s continued leadership, two sources told the Post, and the premier and cabinet ministers had to stop some of them from going after detractors, one source said.
It quickly became clear, sources said, there wasn’t enough momentum in the room to unseat Kenney, with just a few bullish and isolated anti-Kenney MLAs pushing the idea that Kenney needed to go. Once everyone spoke, it became clear that a silent majority were still backing Kenney, and that going forward with such a move would just end up destabilizing the party and province.
But caucus infighting is just one side of the story.
The other: the restive grassroots membership. And that’s where the leadership review comes into play.
Samantha Steinke, president of the Central Peace-Notley constituency association, said the local groups aren’t giving up — they want the review prior to March 1, 2022. Her board, she said, asked for an immediate review, back in spring 2021, to be held at the November 2021 convention.
“I think that the premier needs to resign,” Steinke said. “I’ve supported this party from the beginning, and I know that we’re founded on great things, but I don’t think Jason Kenney’s the guy that moves this conservative movement forward.”
**
While different people have different starting points for their discontent with Kenney’s leadership, much of the recent anger stems from a June 18 announcement: “On July 1, Alberta isn’t just open for summer, but I believe we will be open for good,” said Kenney.
Obviously, that hasn’t happened.
In fact, there has been considerable backtracking on that openness, and the severity of the fourth wave led the Kenney government to break one of its firmest promises: that there would be no vaccine passport. Paul Hinman, who’s now the leader of the Wildrose Independence Party, left in July 2020. Vaccine passports may have been the “straw that broke the camel’s back,” he said.
“But the camel has been kicking and biting for a long time,” Hinman said.
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and Minister of Health Tyler Shandro update Albertans on a new lottery to help encourage everyone to get full COVID-19 vaccinations,
June 14, 2021. PHOTO BY CHRIS SCHWARZ/GOVERNMENT OF ALBERTA
Steinke said her board was done with Kenney long before vaccine passports, but the flip-flop was still critical.
“When your premier comes out and says ‘No, there’s no way we’ll ever do that, it’s illegal, we don’t support that,’ and then all of a sudden it’s like, ‘Actually we are going to do that,’ I mean, it makes people upset and it’s just another nail in the coffin for him of things he’s gone back on and another reason people don’t trust anything he says,” said Steinke.
Some, like Loewen, had called for Kenney’s resignation prior to the announcement of vaccine passports; an April letter circulated among party members sought signatures in a call for Kenney to resign.
In the case of Brian Hildebrand, who resigned from the constituency association in Taber Warner, one of the most conservative areas of the province, this was because of the perception there had been a centralization of power and the rejection of grassroots input.
Still, said Hildebrand, for many, the passports were the last straw.
“I’ve been very amazed at how compliant the population has been, at least up to this point. People have been very patient, in a lot of ways, (but) people’s patience does have an end,” Hildebrand said. “For there to be a demand to show your barista your vaccination papers, yet the premier refuses to disclose where he went on vacation, is a bizarre inconsistency for a lot of people.”
In August, COVID-19 case counts began to rise, rapidly outpacing any other Canadian jurisdiction in their severity.
As cases and hospitalizations climbed, Kenney was on holidays. Shandro, then the health minister, hadn’t been seen since July, and Dr. Deena Hinshaw, the province’s chief medical officer of health, had given just one press appearance since July. In other words, there was the widespread perception in Alberta that the government simply wasn’t doing anything.
When the leaders did actually finally return to the public eye on Sept. 3, it was as the crisis was reaching a critical point. By Sept. 22, Alberta had more than 20,000 active cases, and is adding roughly 1,500 cases per day. There are more than 1,040 people in hospital, including 230 in intensive care; over roughly the past week, Alberta has logged, on average, just shy of 14 deaths per day.
New health measures were announced on Sept. 3, including a mask mandate, and a $100 gift card for those who got their vaccinations — a policy proposal meant to encourage the vaccine hesitant, but that was perceived by some as rewarding people for not doing the right thing earlier.
Among a number of constituency associations, there have been calls for a leadership review. As it stands, said Steinke, if 22 constituency associations call for an earlier leadership review, they should get it. Meetings are ongoing this week about that question.
If the ongoing push among constituency associations to have an earlier leadership review fails, there’s plenty of time between now and the spring. The perception is that it’s still Kenney’s race to lose — if he even still wants to stay on as leader.
“There’s a safe assumption that the premier will put together a strong campaign and a strong pitch for the membership for why he should continue to lead the party and lead it into that next election,” said Solberg. “He will put every ounce of his energy into trying to secure his leadership, I think that’s just who he is, that’s what has made him incredibly successful in his career to date.”
With files from the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal
• Email: tdawson@postmedia.com | Twitter: tylerrdawson
Steinke said her board was done with Kenney long before vaccine passports, but the flip-flop was still critical.
“When your premier comes out and says ‘No, there’s no way we’ll ever do that, it’s illegal, we don’t support that,’ and then all of a sudden it’s like, ‘Actually we are going to do that,’ I mean, it makes people upset and it’s just another nail in the coffin for him of things he’s gone back on and another reason people don’t trust anything he says,” said Steinke.
Some, like Loewen, had called for Kenney’s resignation prior to the announcement of vaccine passports; an April letter circulated among party members sought signatures in a call for Kenney to resign.
In the case of Brian Hildebrand, who resigned from the constituency association in Taber Warner, one of the most conservative areas of the province, this was because of the perception there had been a centralization of power and the rejection of grassroots input.
Still, said Hildebrand, for many, the passports were the last straw.
“I’ve been very amazed at how compliant the population has been, at least up to this point. People have been very patient, in a lot of ways, (but) people’s patience does have an end,” Hildebrand said. “For there to be a demand to show your barista your vaccination papers, yet the premier refuses to disclose where he went on vacation, is a bizarre inconsistency for a lot of people.”
In August, COVID-19 case counts began to rise, rapidly outpacing any other Canadian jurisdiction in their severity.
As cases and hospitalizations climbed, Kenney was on holidays. Shandro, then the health minister, hadn’t been seen since July, and Dr. Deena Hinshaw, the province’s chief medical officer of health, had given just one press appearance since July. In other words, there was the widespread perception in Alberta that the government simply wasn’t doing anything.
When the leaders did actually finally return to the public eye on Sept. 3, it was as the crisis was reaching a critical point. By Sept. 22, Alberta had more than 20,000 active cases, and is adding roughly 1,500 cases per day. There are more than 1,040 people in hospital, including 230 in intensive care; over roughly the past week, Alberta has logged, on average, just shy of 14 deaths per day.
New health measures were announced on Sept. 3, including a mask mandate, and a $100 gift card for those who got their vaccinations — a policy proposal meant to encourage the vaccine hesitant, but that was perceived by some as rewarding people for not doing the right thing earlier.
Among a number of constituency associations, there have been calls for a leadership review. As it stands, said Steinke, if 22 constituency associations call for an earlier leadership review, they should get it. Meetings are ongoing this week about that question.
If the ongoing push among constituency associations to have an earlier leadership review fails, there’s plenty of time between now and the spring. The perception is that it’s still Kenney’s race to lose — if he even still wants to stay on as leader.
“There’s a safe assumption that the premier will put together a strong campaign and a strong pitch for the membership for why he should continue to lead the party and lead it into that next election,” said Solberg. “He will put every ounce of his energy into trying to secure his leadership, I think that’s just who he is, that’s what has made him incredibly successful in his career to date.”
With files from the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal
• Email: tdawson@postmedia.com | Twitter: tylerrdawson
Raffi Cavoukian
Raffi_RC
Alberta friends on my mind. when will @jkenney resign? he’s broken the province’s health system, caused many preventable deaths. friends consider him criminally negligent. grounds for removal. #vaccinated #WearAMask
Twitter
Jesse Hawken
jessehawken
I wonder sometimes what Jason Kenney's long game was on reopening the province for July 1...did he truly think Alberta was the only place in North America where the pandemic had been conquered? Was there really not one medical health expert to emphatically tell him he was wrong?
Twitter
Joe Ceci
joececiyyc
Well done, @jkenney, your catastrophic decisions have made it into the New York Times. "Alberta’s ‘Best Summer Ever’ Ends With an Overwhelmed Medical System." The UCP: Disastrous for our province. Disastrous for our reputation. #ableg #COVID19AB www.nytimes.com/2021/09/24/world/canada/canada-alberta-covid-cases.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimesworld
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Rachel Notley
RachelNotley
Jason Kenney declared over and over that Alberta was “Open For Summer” and “Open For Good.” Then, in July, it became obvious his declaration was wrong and the data was indicating a very bad fourth wave of COVD-19 was coming. 1/3 #ableg #abhealth
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