Saturday, May 13, 2023

Explainer-What you need to know about Thailand's election

Story by By Chayut Setboonsarng and Martin Petty • REUTERS 
YESTERDAY 

Pheu Thai's supporters attend a campaign event for the upcoming general election in Bangkok© Thomson Reuters

By Chayut Setboonsarng and Martin Petty

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand holds an election on May 14 after nearly a decade of a government led or backed by its royalist military after a coup in 2014.

Below is a rundown of what to expect.

WHAT'S BEING DECIDED?

Roughly 52 million of Thailand's 65 million population are eligible to cast votes for members of a new 500-seat house of representatives for the next four years.

Voters have two ballots, one for a local constituency representative and the other for their preferred party on a national level. There are 400 seats for winning constituency candidates and 100 party seats allocated on a proportional representation basis.

HOW WILL A LEADER BE CHOSEN?

Parties winning more than 25 seats can nominate their prime ministerial candidate, although it is likely parties will strike deals between them to back certain candidates.

Those candidates will be put to a vote, likely in August, of the bicameral legislature comprised of a newly elected 500-seat lower house and a 250-seat Senate comprised of members appointed by the military following its 2014 coup.

To become prime minister, the winning candidate must have the votes of more than half of the combined houses, or 375 members.

Related video: Mahidol University's Punchada on Thai Elections 
(Bloomberg)   Duration 4:40   View on Watch


WHO ARE THE MAIN CONTENDERS?


The election will be the latest bout in a long-running battle between parties backed by a conservative establishment with connections to the military and key institutions, and a progressive, pro-business opposition with a track record of wooing working class voters and winning every election in the past two decades.

Pheu Thai, a party controlled by the billionaire Shinawatra family, has a big lead in opinion polls as it did in previous elections, followed by another opposition party, Move Forward, which is seeking to mobilise youth voters.

They will go up against two parties led by former army chiefs involved in coups, incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha of the newly formed United Thai Nation party, and his mentor Prawit Wongsuwan, of the ruling Palang Pracharat party.

Both parties draw backing from the urban middle classes and are regarded as representing the interests of Thailand's nexus of old money aristocrats and military elites who have long influenced politics.

An important contender is Bhumjaithai, a regional heavyweight whose seats could be crucial in determining who forms a government. The party's stature has grown with its successful push to make Thailand Asia's first country to legalise the sale of cannabis.

WHEN WILL THE RESULTS BE KNOWN?

Voting ends at 5 p.m (1000 GMT) local time on Sunday and the election commission says unofficial results should be released that same evening. It aims to certify 95% of the votes or 475 of the 500 seats, within 60 days, or by July 13.

The commission and an alliance of media organisations are expected to provide updates on the vote count in the hours after polling stations close.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT?

It might be weeks, possibly several months, before Thailand gets an idea of what it's next government will look like, depending on the outcome of the election.

An outright majority or even a landslide may not be enough to form a government and alliances with other parties will most likely be required.

Thailand's constitution was re-drafted by the military in 2017 in what many experts say was an attempt to neuter the power of parties that win elections. It prescribed an appointed Senate, of which the majority of members have sided in votes with the ruling, military-backed parties.

(Editing by Kim Coghill)

Thai voters could drive out pro-military party in pivotal vote Sunday

Story by Salimah Shivji •  CBC - TODAY

The cheers from the crowd were irrepressible at a large Pheu Thai Party rally in Chiang Mai in the final days of Thailand's general election campaign, just as polls widely indicate the largest opposition party's candidate for prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is poised to potentially unseat the incumbent former army chief.

It would be a triumphant return for the country's most famous political family, after Paetongtarn's exiled father Thaksin was ousted from power in a coup d'etat in 2006.

His various political parties have won the most seats in every Thai election since 2001, but those wins were either quashed by the military establishment aligned with the monarchy or the parties were dissolved.

But with voting day approaching on Sunday, this election is shaping up to be a once-in-a-generation battle to oust Thailand's pro-military government and bring democratic reforms to a country that's endured nearly a decade of military rule, following another coup in 2014.



Supporters of the Pheu Thai Party wave banners and listen to candidate speeches in Chiang Mai, ahead of the general election on May 14.© Salimah Shivji/CBC

A second, more progressive pro-democratic party, Move Forward, is also surging in the polls, galvanizing young Thai voters with calls for an overhaul of the country's political structure and military dominance, even going so far as to propose a rethink of the sweeping power of Thailand's monarchy, a once-taboo topic.

The Pheu Thai party has been more evasive in its stance on curtailing the monarchy, preferring to focus on the push for democracy, but it still commands large crowds at rallies, and is a widely popular choice among rural and working-class voters.

"We will together bring back democracy," Shinawatra has told campaign rally after campaign rally.

"Vote for Pheu Thai in a landslide," she exhorted the crowd at another rally, before the 36-year old gave birth to a baby boy on May 1 and briefly halted her campaigning duties.



Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, gestures as she attends a major rally event ahead of the upcoming election in Bangkok on Friday.© Jorge Silva/REUTERS

Why a landslide matters

At the rally on Wednesday before Election Day in Chiang Mai, the Pheu Thai Party's historic heartland where its rural base is located, the enthusiasm for the Shinawatra political dynasty was unwavering.

"I love Thaksin," 55-year old Nikom Mahawong said with a big grin, showing off the red t-shirt he was wearing, with Paetongtarn Shinawatra's face on it.

"I think she will be a good leader. She will bring Thailand to a better place," he said.

Other supporters were also keen to see Shinawatra take power.

"I've always had faith in the Pheu Thai Party," said Wichapat Siraksa, 43. "I want them to push Thailand forward," she added. "I want Pheu Thai to win by a landslide."



Nikom Mahawong, a big Thaksin Shinawatra fan, attends a Pheu Thai Party rally in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand, in the week leading up to what observers are calling the most pivotal Thai election in a generation.© Salimah Shivji/CBC

Complex election rules in the country, implemented after the coup, mean the pro-democratic parties would need a sweeping landslide win to overcome the system that's skewed in favour of pro-military candidates.

Related video: Thailand election: Leading parties, personalities, key issues (WION)
Duration 1:54  View on Watch

The junta appointed 250 senators who, along with Parliament's lower house, vote on who becomes prime minister. They're expected to overwhelmingly support pro-military candidates, as they did in the last election in 2019, which voting watchdog groups described as "heavily tilted" to benefit the military junta.

Calls for structural reform


It's system that infuriates the young voters flocking to a Move Forward event in Bangkok on May 9, to promote marriage equality and gay rights.

While some spoke of concerns about election rigging, others were more optimistic about the prospect of democratic reforms coming to Thailand.

"The Move Forward party, it's a new party and it brings our hope back," said 18-year old Supanid Phumithanes, who will be voting for the first time on Sunday.

"This time I want to see the real people who want to do something better for Thailand…. A whole new government," she added.

Her friend, Patita Wattananupong, 19 and also a first-time voter, nodded vehemently in agreement, saying that a few years ago, she had little hope that change would come to her country but that her "hope now is greater and greater."

In 2020, after an earlier incarnation of the Move Forward Party was dissolved, pro-democracy protests erupted, with tens of thousands of young people taking to the streets to demand change. The government crushed the movement, responding with mass arrests before the demonstrations fizzled as the pandemic raged.



Thailand's government clamped down on the youth-led anti-government protests in 2020 with mass arrests, although some demonstrations continued into the following year, like this one in Bangkok on March 24, 2021. The Constitutional Court eventually ruled that demands for reform of the Thai monarchy were unconstitutional and ordered an end to all movements.
© Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP via Getty Images

Pinda Puropakanonda, 32, told CBC News that Thai "society is broken." She said people have now "woken up from the narrative that they've been told all their lives, how they should respect the monarchy."

The incumbent prime minister, Prayuth Chan-o-cha, a former army chief who led the 2014 military coup, directly addressed the surge of support for structural reform at a campaign rally two days ahead of Sunday's vote.

"We do not want change that will overturn the country," Chan-o-cha said. "Do you know what kind of damage it would do? We cannot suddenly change all at once because we don't know what lies on the side."

There is still support for the conservative military establishment, particularly among the older generation.

"I love Prayuth's party. They love the king and love the nation," Muay Sae-Ue, 77, told CBC News moments after she warmly greeted the local conservative candidate outside her fresh egg stall in Bangkok's old town.

She feels that the younger generation doesn't like the King and that "will bring our country down."


Muay Sae-Ue, 77, has been running her fresh egg stall in Bangkok since she was a child. She is a supporter of incumbent prime minister and former army chief Prayuth Chan-o-cha, because he loves 'the king and the nation.'
© Salimah Shivji/CBC
'That's enough'

For political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the "rise and red-hot momentum" of Move Forward is a game-changer that's made this election more consequential than ever.

Pongsudhirak thinks the war over which party can be more populist is over, and the new political battleground that demands attention is deep, structural reform of Thailand's institutions: the military stranglehold on power, the judiciary's role in maintaining the status quo, and the dominant monarchy.

"The democratic process in Thailand has always been crooked, suppressed, subverted. And now some people are saying that that's enough," said the professor of politics and international relations at Chulalongkorn University.


Political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak rates this election as unlike any other Thailand has seen because of the progressive parties forcing issues like reforms to the monarchy's power to the fore.
© Salimah Shivji/CBC

The big question is what will happen after the vote: whether the pro-democratic parties will be able to form government if they win big, or whether the military establishment will move against them.

"I think a military coup would be the last resort," Pongsudhirak said, because it would be difficult to rationalize and explain to the rest of the world.

"Short of a coup itself, we've seen party dissolution, so they might go there again," he speculated. But if that happens, "you can bet that the [young supporters] will rise up and you'll see them in the streets," Pongsudhirak added.

"If [the military establishment] is hunkering down for another fight … then we'll see more tension and confrontation, as we've seen over the last two decades."

A tumultuous two decades in Thailand's politics
Story by Reuters • Yesterday 

Move Forward Party supporters show the three-finger salute during an upcoming election campaign event in Bangkok
© Thomson Reuters

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand has seen two coups, three prime ministers brought down by court rulings, intermittent violence and crippling colour-coded street demonstrations during two decades of political instability.

Below are key events leading up to Sunday's election.

2001 - Billionaire telecommunications tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra is elected prime minister on a populist platform. He is hugely popular, widely regarded as a mould-breaking premier who oversaw economic growth, prioritised the rural poor and courted foreign investors with plans for modernisation.

2005 - Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party wins another election in a landslide, the first Thai party to win re-election.

2006 - Allegations of Thaksin's corruption, cronyism, neptotism and abuse of power take hold, worsened by the tax-free sale of his family's Shin Corporation to Singapore state investor Temasek for 73 billion baht ($2.16 billion). His enemies orchestrate massive demonstrations against him, donning yellow shirts, the colour of the monarchy, and accusing him of disloyalty to the king. Thaksin denies wrongdoing.

The royalist military ousts Thaksin while he is in New York and he takes temporary refuge in Britain. Thai Rak Thai is dissolved for violating election law and Thaksin and party executives are banned from politics for five years.

2007 - Thai Rak Thai is re-launched as the People Power Party (PPP) and wins an election. Former Bangkok governor Samak Sundaravej becomes prime minister.

2008 - Thaksin returns to Thailand in February. Samak is disqualified as premier for appearing in a TV cooking show and Thaksin's brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, takes over as prime minister.

Yellow Shirts seize Bangkok's two international airports for 10 days and the blockade ends when a court dissolves PPP for electoral fraud. The Pheu Thai Party is created in its place.

A new coalition government is formed with the opposition Democrat Party at the helm. Thaksin leaves Thailand into self-imposed exile before a court convicts him of a conflict of interest and sentences him to two years in prison.

Related video: Thailand General Elections May See End to Junta Rule - TaiwanPlus News (TaiwanPlus)
Duration 3:16 View on Watch


2009 - A "red shirt" movement of Thaksin's mostly rural supporters hold weeks of rallies in Bangkok against the Democrat-led government, calling it unelected and illegitimate.

Red shirts storm an international summit in the seaside town of Pattaya, forcing leaders of China, Japan and Southeast Asian countries to flee. In Bangkok, rioting and arson ensues after confrontations between demonstrators and the military.

2010 - Red shirt protests resume and demonstrators set up camp in Bangkok's commercial heart for 10 weeks, paralysing business. Army efforts to disperse the protests turn deadly on several occasions, with more than 90 people killed, mostly protesters, the worst political violence in nearly two decades.

2011 - Pheu Thai wins an election in a landslide. Thaksin's popular but politically inexperience sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, becomes prime minister.

2013 - Anti-government protests resume in Bangkok after Yingluck's government introduces an amnesty bill that could have led to Thaksin’s return. The bill fails but the protests go on for months. Yingluck calls a snap election.

2014 - Elections are held but invalidated due to disruption. Protests intensify, the seat of government is breached but Yingluck's government stands firm. Martial law is declared to prevent bloodshed.

Yingluck steps down after a court finds her guilty of abuse of power. The military calls a meeting between the government and protesters to chart a way out of the crisis, during which army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha announces the talks have failed and the military is taking power in a coup.

2016 - King Bhumibol Adulyadej dies after a 70-year reign. He is succeeded by his son, King Maha Vajiralongkorn.

2017 - Yingluck flees Thailand ahead of a verdict against her over her government's rice subsidy scheme and jail term of five years. A military-drafted constitution is approved in a referendum.

2019 - Elections are held, Prayuth's army-backed Palang Pracharat party wins fewer seats than Pheu Thai but forms the government, with Pheu Thai in opposition. Prayuth is elected prime minister in a vote by the lower house and the junta-appointed Senate. Opposition parties say the process was rigged, which Prayuth denies.

2020 - A court dissolves the opposition Future Forward Party. Its billionaire founder Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit is banned from politics. Student-led protests begin and for the first time demand reform of the monarchy.

2021 - Protests die down as COVID-19 restrictions intensify. Legal cases against protest leaders mount.

2023 - Prayuth calls an election for May 14. Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra is named a Pheu Thai candidate for prime minister.

Just a few days away from the election, Thaksin says he is seeking to end his 17 years in exiled and return.

(Compiled by Chayut Setboonsarng; Editing by Martin Petty, Robert Birsel)

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