Tuesday, November 23, 2021

How Mount Baker's volcanic eruption would impact Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley

Kenneth Chan
Nov 22 2021

SkyTrain Canada Line's main bridge over the Fraser River frames Mount Baker in Washington State, captured using a telephoto lens.
Using a telephoto lens, Mount Baker — located just south of BC’s border with Washington State — certainly appears much closer than it really is.

On a clear day, photographers have to try much harder to capture the ‘perfect shot’ of this volcano from West Vancouver or the Strait of Georgia on BC Ferries, as it certainly does not dominate the downtown Vancouver skyline in the same way that Mount Rainier backdrops Seattle

Mount Baker is still quite close to Metro Vancouver, about 110 km from the City of Vancouver, and even closer to the Fraser Valley — just 23 km from Abbotsford.

Map showing the location of Mount Baker and the distance from urban centres in the Lower Mainland of BC. (US Geological Survey)

Panorama of the Metro Vancouver region, with Mount Baker in the distance on the left and the Lions Gate Bridge and downtown Vancouver on the right. (Shutterstock)

View of Mount Baker from the Sumas Prairie in the Fraser Valley. (Shutterstock)

The close proximity of this 10,781-ft-tall stratovolcano – the youngest in the volcanic field at this part of the world – to one of the largest urban areas of Canada could be problematic. It is active, and this comes with the associated hazards.

However, an eruption of Mount Baker is unlikely to replicate the same destructive force as Mount St. Helens when it erupted in 1980, according to Professor Glyn Williams-Jones, who is a co-director of Simon Fraser University’s Centre for Natural Hazards Research.

Mount Baker photographed using a telephoto lens from a BC Ferries vessel in the Strait of Georgia. (Mark Donovan/Flickr)

Close-up view of Mount Baker and surrounding mountains. (Shutterstock)

He says pyroclastic flows, which is a particle and gas cloud with temperatures of between 200°C and 700°C and rapid speeds of up to 700 km/hr, are unlikely.

The larger concern with Mount Baker is lahars – the Indonesian term for destructive mudflows that have the consistency of wet concrete.

The potential for lahars is significant as Mount Baker has an estimated 1.8 cubic km of glacial ice – more than all of the other volcanoes on the Cascade Volcanic Arc, except Mount Rainier, combined.

Within hours of a volcanic event, lahars and flooding could occur in the Fraser Valley and parts of eastern Metro Vancouver.

Mount Baker during winter. (Shutterstock)

“It is plausible that if there was even a small eruption, a reactivation of the volcano system, a lot of that snow and ice atop the mountain will quickly melt and send mudflows down the valleys all along the flanks of the volcano,” Williams-Jones told Daily Hive Urbanized. “That could impact areas in the Lower Mainland. There are efforts being made to monitor that kind of thing.”

Slow-moving lava flows similar to what has been happening to Lellani Estates on the Big Island of Hawaii in 2018 are unlikely.

Instead, the other major potential impact from Mount Baker is ashfall, which could wreak havoc on flight operations at Vancouver International Airport. This was the case in 2010 when trans-Atlantic flights were significantly disrupted by ash being injected into the jet stream from the eruption of Eyafjallajökull in Iceland.

Mount Eyjafjallajokull erupting in Iceland on May 12 2010. The ash plume ejected into the jet stream caused disruptions to many international flights. (Shutterstock)

“Even a relatively small explosive eruption at Mount Baker with ash over a short distance in the air could lead to delays and cancellations for the airport,” he said.

“You’re dealing with pulverized rock, it should not be confused for a substance like cigarette ash or wood fire ash. It is a combination of the rock of the volcano itself, which is being fragmented and shattered into tiny particles. It’s basically magma, when liquid rock has frozen instantly into volcanic glass.”

Ash stalls plane engines, destroys electrical infrastructure, creates dangerous driving conditions, and severely damages lungs when inhaled. People with respiratory issues will likely have issues and could fill emergency rooms.

Sunrise with Mount Baker and the Lions Gate Bridge. (Shutterstock)

Another issue with ash is when it is mixed with water, it essentially becomes concrete and could threaten the structural integrity of weaker roofs.

“We see a lot of this in Indonesia and the Philippines where simple wood structure buildings would collapse. This is because when you mix that ash with rain, it’s like you just added three or four inches of cement to a roof. It just carpets everything,” Williams-Jones added.

Williams-Jones says the last time Vancouver saw ash scattered on outdoor surfaces was from the Mount St. Helens eruption of 1980. But Metro Vancouver’s general pattern of eastward and southward flowing winds could mitigate some of the ash plume emitted from Mount Baker.

Winds bring ash to Kagoshima, Japan during an eruption of the volcano Sakurajima on June 3, 2010. (Shutterstock)

Mount Baker’s previous eruption was in 1880, and Williams-Jones says it is difficult to predict when it will erupt again.

He points to the example of the April 2015 eruption of Calbuco in Chile when seismometers on the volcano provided just three hours warning prior to the eruption, which scattered ash across nearby cities.

“Sometimes these volcanoes catch you unaware,” he continued. “These systems are complex, and we try to forecast these events, but we need baseline monitoring. If we don’t have that, then we’re kind of blind.”

The male orca known as L95 Nigel surfaces off the shoreline of San Juan Island with Mount Baker in the background. (Shutterstock)

Every now and then, gases are seen rising from Mount Baker’s summit, but Williams-Jones says this is mostly steam from snow and ice sliding into the active crater.

Fortunately, Mount Baker is one of the most monitored and studied volcanoes in the United States due to its accessibility from urban areas and the relatively high level of funding for the US Geological Survey’s volcanology program following the Mount St. Helens eruption.

Two seismometers placed on the volcano by the US Geological Survey create a key early-warning system for an impending eruption, as a swarm of tremors within a short period of time could be a sign that magma is moving upwards.
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As a reminder of Mount Baker’s potency, the latest earthquake detected inside the volcano at the time of writing is a magnitude 1.1 tremor, striking at a shallow depth of 2.8 km, at 5:01 pm on Tuesday, November 16, 2021.

This is the Mount Baker ashfall forecast simulation by the US Geological Survey based on a major eruption during the weather conditions of the evening of Thursday, May 17, 2018. The location of the ashfall entirely depends on the weather of the day:

Mount Baker ashfall forecast if a major eruption were to happen on the evening of Thursday, May 17, 2018. This forecast takes into account meteorological conditions such as wind direction. (US Geological Survey)

Expected ash fall accumulation from a major Mount Baker eruption on the evening of Thursday, May 17, 2018. (US Geological Survey)

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WHAT DO SECRETARIES USE AT WORK?!

Kids, teens believe girls aren't interested in computer science, study shows

by University of Washington

Children as young as age 6 develop ideas that girls are less interested than boys in computer science and engineering—stereotypes that can extend into the late teens and contribute to a gender gap in STEM college courses and related careers.

New research from the University of Houston and the University of Washington, published the week of Nov. 22 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, explores the gender-based beliefs young children and teens hold about interest in STEM fields. The majority of children believe girls are less interested than boys in computer science and engineering, the study shows.

"Gender-interest stereotypes that STEM is for boys begins in grade school, and by the time they reach high school, many girls have made their decision not to pursue degrees in computer science and engineering because they feel they don't belong," said Allison Master, an assistant professor of Psychological, Health and Learning Sciences at the University of Houston and the study's lead author.

The PNAS study involved four different studies—a mix of surveys and designed experiments to capture the beliefs of a racially diverse sample of children and teens in grades 1 through 12. Researchers wanted to focus on interest, building on past studies of stereotypes about ability, to learn how gender-based stereotypes about who likes—not just who is "good" at—computer science and engineering can affect a child's sense of belonging and willingness to participate. Such information can influence a young person's motivation over the long term, researchers point out, and may deter them from trying an activity or taking a class.

As recently as 2019, national statistics reveal that women are underrepresented in some popular and lucrative STEM careers: United States Census Bureau statistics show that only about 25% of computer scientists and 15% of engineers were women.

In the first two studies, researchers surveyed more than 2,200 children and teens to gauge beliefs about computer science and engineering. The surveys used terms and phrases with which the students were familiar at school, such as "computer coding" for computer science or, for engineering, "designing and creating large structures such as roads and bridges."

Researchers found that just over half (51%) of children believed girls are less interested than boys in computer science, and nearly two-thirds (63%) said girls are less interested in engineering. In comparison, 14% of children said girls are more interested than boys in computer science, and 9% said girls are more interested in engineering.

Subsequent lab studies provided a smaller sample of children two different activities from which to choose. The results demonstrated that girls were significantly less interested in a computer science activity when they were told boys were more interested in it than girls (35% of girls chose the activity), compared to one they were told boys and girls were equally interested in (65% of girls chose that activity).

While the surveys showed the pervasiveness of gender-based stereotypes around interest in computer science and engineering, the designed experiments demonstrated how stereotypes can affect a sense of belonging, which can influence motivation, co-author Andrew Meltzoff said.

"The large surveys told us that the kids had absorbed the cultural stereotype that girls are less interested in computer science and engineering. In the experiments we zeroed in on causal mechanisms and consequences of stereotypes," said Meltzoff, a professor of psychology at the UW and co-director of the Institute for Learning & Brain Sciences. "We discovered that labeling an activity in a stereotyped way influenced children's interest in it and their willingness to take it home—the mere presence of the stereotype influenced kids in dramatic ways. This brought home to us the pernicious effect of stereotypes on children and teens"

And that's important, added co-author Sapna Cheryan, a UW professor of psychology, because if fewer girls feel they belong, then fewer might pursue computer science or engineering through school and beyond. That can lead to gender disparities in STEM fields and even worsen the wage gap.

"Current gender disparities in computer science and engineering careers are troubling because these careers are lucrative, high status, and influence so many aspects of our daily lives.

The dearth of gender and racial diversity in these fields may be one of the reasons why many products and services have had negative consequences for women and people of color," Cheryan said.

Teachers and parents can help counteract stereotypes by offering high-quality computer science and engineering activities early in elementary school—and encouraging girls' participation, the authors note.Changing stereotypes key to getting girls interested in computer science

More information: Gender stereotypes about interests start early and cause gender disparities in computer science and engineering, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2021). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2100030118.

Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Provided by University of Washington

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Edited by Yarrow Dunham, Yale University, New Haven, CT, and accepted by the Editorial Board September 10, 2021 (received for review March 8, 2021)

Significance

Societal stereotypes that girls are less interested than boys in computer science and engineering are endorsed by children and adolescents in a large and socioeconomically diverse sample, across multiple racial/ethnic and gender intersections, and as early as age six (first grade). Gender-interest stereotypes may contribute to subsequent gender disparities in the pursuit of these societally important fields. Addressing interest stereotypes may help improve educational equity.

Abstract

Societal stereotypes depict girls as less interested than boys in computer science and engineering. We demonstrate the existence of these stereotypes among children and adolescents from first to 12th grade and their potential negative consequences for girls’ subsequent participation in these fields. Studies 1 and 2 (n = 2,277; one preregistered) reveal that children as young as age six (first grade) and adolescents across multiple racial/ethnic and gender intersections (Black, Latinx, Asian, and White girls and boys) endorse stereotypes that girls are less interested than boys in computer science and engineering. The more that individual girls endorse gender-interest stereotypes favoring boys in computer science and engineering, the lower their own interest and sense of belonging in these fields. These gender-interest stereotypes are endorsed even more strongly than gender stereotypes about computer science and engineering abilities. Studies 3 and 4 (n = 172; both preregistered) experimentally demonstrate that 8- to 9-y-old girls are significantly less interested in an activity marked with a gender stereotype (“girls are less interested in this activity than boys”) compared to an activity with no such stereotype (“girls and boys are equally interested in this activity”). Taken together, both ecologically valid real-world studies (Studies 1 and 2) and controlled preregistered laboratory experiments (Studies 3 and 4) reveal that stereotypes that girls are less interested than boys in computer science and engineering emerge early and may contribute to gender disparities.

Societal stereotypes, shared beliefs linking groups and traits, have numerous negative consequences (1, 2). The prevalence of negative stereotypes about women’s and girls’ abilities contributes to gender disparities in computer science and engineering (3 ⇓⇓⇓⇓–8). Here, we investigate a different and consequential pervasive stereotype: that women and girls have lower interest in computer science and engineering. We define interest stereotypes as beliefs that one social group has lower liking, enjoyment, or predisposition to engage in a particular topic than another group. Interest stereotypes may influence motivation by altering students’ perceptions of themselves, including their sense of whether they would belong with others in that field. The current studies make three primary contributions by demonstrating 1) the existence of gender-interest stereotypes favoring boys among young children and adolescents across multiple racial/ethnic and gender intersections in the United States, 2) that gender-interest stereotypes causally influence subsequent academic motivation (e.g., children’s own interest in pursuing, choice of, and sense of belonging in computer science activities), and 3) that gender-interest stereotypes more strongly predict academic motivation to pursue computer science and engineering than the traditionally studied gender-ability stereotypes. Four studies (n = 2,449, 3 preregistered) combine cross-sectional surveys in schools across a wide range of ages and racial/ethnic groups with controlled experiments in the laboratory to investigate the presence, correlates, and causal effects of gender-interest stereotypes on interest and participation in computer science and engineering activities and classes.

In the United States, the representation of women varies widely across science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields. Computer science and engineering have among the largest gender disparities in college, much larger than mathematics, biology, and chemistry (9 ⇓–11). Gender disparities in computer science and engineering contribute to many societal inequities, including the existence of products and services that overlook and sometimes selectively harm women and children (12). Gender disparities in lucrative fields such as computer science and engineering are also a significant source of the gender wage gap (13). Society would benefit from more girls and women pursuing these fields.

Current Studies

We combine large cross-sectional surveys (Studies 1 and 2, Ns = 733 and 1,544) and controlled preregistered laboratory experiments (Studies 3 and 4) to establish the existence of gender-interest stereotypes and their causal influence on academic motivation and participation. In Studies 1 and 2, we find that young children and adolescents endorse gender-interest stereotypes. These stereotypes negatively predict girls’ interest in pursuing computer science and engineering and sense of belonging in these fields, even when controlling for effects of gender stereotypes about ability. In Studies 3 and 4, we find that girls are significantly less interested in an activity that is marked (through random assignment) by a gender-interest stereotype compared to an activity with no stereotype. We also find that these gender-interest stereotypes favoring boys are sometimes (but not always) positively related to boys’ interest and sense of belonging.

This programmatic series of four studies advances theory by demonstrating that gender-interest stereotypes 1) exist among a racially and socioeconomically diverse group of children and adolescents across multiple racial/ethnic and gender intersections, 2) more strongly predict girls’ motivation to pursue computer science and engineering courses than gender-ability stereotypes, 3) cause girls to be less interested than boys in pursuing novel and computer science-related activities, and 4) cause girls to have a lower sense of belonging which mediates their lower interest in computer science activities. These studies also have several methodological strengths: 1) mixed methods, including large-scale surveys administered in schools and preregistered laboratory experiments, 2) a racially and socioeconomically diverse US sample, 3) intersectional analyses (i.e., effects broken down by race and gender), 4) self-report and behavioral choice outcomes to measure interest and participation, and 5) in-person and online video-conferencing procedures, similar to how the majority of American children experienced learning situations during the COVID-19 pandemic (14).

CONTINUE READING HERE https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2100030118

David Suzuki Foundation disavows Suzuki's warning that pipelines will be blown up if there is no climate change action

A video broadcast of the remarks shows Suzuki wearing a white jacket bearing the David Suzuki Foundation logo

Author of the article:Devika Desai
Publishing date:Nov 23, 2021 •

Environmentalist David Suzuki donned a white jacket with his foundation's logo while speaking to CHEK News. PHOTO BY SCREENSHOT
Article content

The David Suzuki Foundation has distanced itself from environmental activist David Suzuki’s warning that “pipelines will be blown up” if political leaders do not act on climate change.

During an interview with CHEK News on Saturday, Nov. 20, Suzuki warned that “if our leaders don’t pay attention to what’s going on” there will be “pipelines blowing up” without elaborating further.

A video broadcast of the remarks shows Suzuki wearing a white jacket bearing the David Suzuki Foundation logo.

Two days later, on Nov. 22, the foundation, an environmental non-profit headquartered in Vancouver, put out a statement on Twitter denying any involvement in the claims, explaining Suzuki spoke on his own behalf and not for the organization.

Their founder, it said, was not making a “direct threat to destroy fossil fuel infrastructure.”

“David Suzuki has been predicting environmental consequences for decades. Similarly, this comment was a predictive reflection on the escalating stakes and potential for conflict due to the effects of human-caused climate change,” the organization explained in a Twitter thread.

His comments, the foundation said, were a “reflection on the increased frustration” felt by those, on the west coast for example, watching their communities destroyed by heat homes, wildfires, atmospheric rivers while the B.C. government continues to expand fossil fuel infrastructure, including LNG plants and pipelines.

David Suzuki co-founded the non profit in 1990 with his wife Tara Cullis as a solutions-based response to tackle the environmental crisis. The Foundation’s prioritizes ocean health and sustainable fishing, climate change, clean energy and sustainability and partners with local people, especially Indigenous communities to develop alternative and sustainable models of economic and community development.

Cullis currently serves as president of the board of directors overseeing the foundation, while his daughter Severn Cullis-Suzuki is the organization’s executive director.

The Saturday event in Victoria saw hundreds march from Centennial Square to the B.C. Legislature, to urge governments to take action against the ongoing climate emergency in the province.

“We’re in deep, deep doo-doo,” Suzuki said at the protest. “This is what we’re come to. The next stage after this, there are going to be pipelines blown up if our leaders don’t pay attention to what’s going on.”

Reached by the National Post on Monday, Suzuki said violence within the environmental movement is already happening, although he identified police actions against anti-logging protesters and anti-gas pipeline protesters as the culprits.

Asked whether or not he would support the bombing of pipelines, Suzuki said, “Of course not.”

SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

‘It is entirely doable, and it is doable fast’: Experts on how to navigate the energy transition

PUBLISHED MON, NOV 22 2021
CNBC
Sam Meredith @SMEREDITH19
Lucy Handley @LUCYHANDLEY

KEY POINTS

The U.N. has said global fossil fuel use is “dangerously out of sync” with climate goals.

Currently, the world gets around 80% of its primary energy supply from fossil fuels and 3% from renewable sources, per Morgan Stanley analysis.

“A just transition for countries dependent on fossil fuels begins with the recognition that we have to get off of fossil fuels and then you commit the resources to help their economy, to help their workers transition to sustainable alternatives,” Carroll Muffett, chief executive at the non-profit Center for International Environmental Law, told CNBC.

Steam rises from the Niederaussem coal-fired power plant operated by German utility RWE, which stands near open-pit coal mines that feed it with coal, on November 13, 2017 near Bergheim, Germany.
Lukas Schulze | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — The deepening climate emergency underscores the urgent need for policymakers to oversee a rapid transition away from fossil fuels.

How countries navigate this switch, however, is fiercely contested.

The burning of energy sources such as coal, oil and gas, is the chief driver of the climate crisis. Yet, while politicians and business leaders routinely tout their commitment to the energy transition, the world’s fossil fuel dependency remains on track to get even worse.

Climate scientists have repeatedly stressed the best weapon to tackle rising global temperatures is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible.

The Glasgow Climate Pact, an agreement reached at the COP26 summit earlier this month, marked the first time ever that an international climate deal explicitly mentioned fossil fuels. The final agreement called for countries to “phase down” coal use and “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies.

This language has done little to inspire confidence, however, particularly in the wake of research that suggests the vast majority of fossil fuels must be kept in the ground if the world is to have any hope of preventing progressively worse and potentially irreversible climate impacts.

It is entirely doable, and it is doable fast, but it will come with a price tag which will then be repaid forever after in a prosperous and healthy society. So, that’s what it is going to take.
Julia Steinberger
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMIST AT THE UNIVERSITY OF LAUSANNE

The U.N. has said global fossil fuel use is “dangerously out of sync” with climate goals and activists have pushed for governments to dismantle the fossil fuel economy.

Here, experts assess the challenges of decarbonizing the global economy, how quickly it can be achieved and some of the possible interim solutions.

‘We have to get off fossil fuels’

“I come from Kentucky, I worked tobacco growing up,” Carroll Muffett, chief executive at the non-profit Center for International Environmental Law, told CNBC. “I know what the feel of the tar in my nose is, I know what the choking feeling of the tar in your lungs is when you’re stripping tobacco in winter. And the truth is the U.S. began regulating cigarettes more aggressively because it needed to be done.”

“Yes, there are many people employed in these spaces but that was true of asbestos before. These are products that need to be moved out of our economy.”

Muffett said a “fundamental prerequisite” to a just transition would be for policymakers to explicitly acknowledge that a transition needs to happen. He cited the U.S. government and the coal industry pledging “over and over again” to find ways to use coal despite the climate and health impacts.

“We have to get off fossil fuels, we know that. So, a just transition for countries dependent on fossil fuels begins with the recognition that we have to get off of fossil fuels and then you commit the resources to help their economy, to help their workers transition to sustainable alternatives,” Muffett said.

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“We see solar and wind being the cheapest source of new energy for more than two-thirds of the world’s population now and rapidly accelerating. They are increasingly cheaper than new-build coal and gas plants, but they are also cheaper than fossil fuels in existing infrastructure. And I think one of the really important things about those renewable energies, particularly solar, is that they are scalable. They can be deployed at very small scales, including in remote areas, where you don’t have to wait for the grid to arrive.”

What transition?

Earlier this year, the influential International Energy Agency published the world’s first comprehensive roadmap to building a global energy sector with net-zero emissions by 2050.

The world’s leading energy organization said in May that there could be no new oil, gas or coal development if the world is to reach net zero by the middle of the century. It added government pledges at that time fell “well short” of what would be necessary to reach net zero.

To put the total size of the energy market into perspective, global markets for coal and natural gas are both bigger than all metal markets combined — and the oil market is almost double that size, according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley.

The big challenge is ensuring our energy system storage is not diminished in the transition.
Alan Thomson
GLOBAL ENERGY LEADER AT ARUP

Fossil fuels accounted for more than 80% of global energy consumption in 2019, according to data compiled by Our World in Data, while renewables such as wind and solar accounted for 11.4%.

What’s more, while the total amount of renewable energy that’s available is growing, it is still lower than the increase in global energy demand overall.

“Taking into account that the entire energy system is growing as well, the switch from fossil fuels to renewables is not a quick one,” Martijn Rats, chief commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC via email.

“The energy transition will not be realized with start-ups alone,” he added. “We need the major energy companies of the world to make the trillions in investments that are needed over the next few decades. Today’s fossil fuel companies have a role to play in this. With their engineering and project management expertise, and global reach, they are capable of realizing those large infrastructure projects.”
An investment into a livable future

Oil producer group OPEC has said the narrative that the energy transition is from fossil fuels to renewables “is misleading and potentially dangerous to a world that will continue to be thirsty for all energy sources.”

In remarks to assembled delegates at COP26 on Nov. 10, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said a failure to listen to all voices on issues such as reducing emissions, energy affordability and security could lead to unintended consequences. These include market distortions, heightened volatility and energy shortfalls.

To be sure, all of these examples are already evident — and at a time when the global energy mix is still dominated by fossil fuels.

A coalition of major gas exporters, meanwhile, has warned about persistent “reductionism and cancel culture” on hydrocarbons. In a statement to the U.N., the Gas Exporting Countries Forum said it believed gas offered “a complete and balanced” solution to the transition.

“That’s what we call the discourse of climate delay,” Julia Steinberger, ecological economist at the University of Lausanne, told CNBC. “That’s a classic one. We call it fossil fuel solutionism, which is that even though they are the problem, it is still also supposed to be the solution.”

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In a paper published in the journal Global Sustainability last July, economist William Lamb and several other co-authors, including Steinberger, sought to identify the most common messaging from proponents for minimal climate action. These “discourses of climate delay” fall into four main groups: “Redirect responsibility” (someone else should take action first), “push non-transformative solutions” (disruptive change is unnecessary), “emphasize the downsides” (change will be difficult), or “surrender” (it is not possible to mitigate climate change).

Fossil fuel solutionism, Lamb’s team says, is categorized as “push for non-transformative action.” It refers to the messaging that promotes ineffective solutions and draws attention away from more effective measures.

“One of the main arguments here that’s being made is like: ‘Oh, well if you transition overnight then you are going to be in trouble,’” Steinberger said. “We’d love to transition overnight and obviously we can’t, but we have to transition as fast as humanly possible and we’re not trying that. And one of the reasons we’re not trying that is exactly because these industries position themselves as: ‘You’re still going to need us moving forward.’”

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“We basically have to make it explicit, which is again something that hasn’t happened at COP, that every government is trying to avoid fossil fuels. That looks like electrification, it looks like generating renewable energy. All of these things, which are highly technically feasible and cost-effective, it is just that the ramp-up of them is going to be financially painful because it has been waiting so long.”

Steinberger said the decarbonization transition would require “massive” public funds that would likely incur public debt, but this should not be seen as a problem because it is an investment “into a livable future where we don’t destroy the planet and the economy and everybody’s means of life.”

“It is entirely doable, and it is doable fast, but it will come with a price tag which will then be repaid forever after in a prosperous and healthy society. So, that’s what it is going to take.”

‘Green power gap’

“Governments will need to judge the tolerance to fund the transition, which in the long term will lead to cheaper energy. No doubt over the transition period, [prices] are going to go up,” Steve Varley, global vice chair for sustainability at management consultancy EY, told CNBC by phone.

“All governments will be incredibly focused on [avoiding] power cuts and the prices being charged for electricity accelerating — it’s a tough call,” he said of the transition.

EY research suggests there is a “green power gap,” with an additional $5.2 trillion needed to meet IEA’s scenarios for renewable energy development, and there is also a divide between developed and developing nations.

“Specific industry sectors also face a ‘burning platform’ of limited capital and shifting consumer preferences, leaving infrastructure and jobs stranded,” he said.

“If developing countries cannot license, import and scale green technology at a viable price, the incentive to extract and use fossil fuels will remain,” Varley said in an October post on EY’s website. Oil and gas-producing countries such as Angola, Iraq and Libya are likely to suffer, per the International Renewable Energy Agency.

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Alan Thomson, global energy leader at engineering firm Arup, said hydrogen could be part of “low-carbon clusters” in the shift away from fossil fuels.

These are “smaller units of green energy that can be connected to other solutions in time – that spread, multiply and then dominate, increasingly delivering value as they become more and more interconnected,” he told CNBC by email.

That might mean using green hydrogen to fuel a fleet of buses, Thomson said. Clusters can be scaled up, too. “For example, if several neighboring areas of a city were to develop clusters converting domestic gas supplies to hydrogen, they could then be joined together,” Thomson added.

“The greater scale of demand could then make it worth developing the next piece of the jigsaw – for instance, replacing tanker shipments of hydrogen with a pipeline to a larger production facility nearby.”

Will we see energy shortages as the transition happens? For Thomson, energy storage is going to be the issue.

“The big challenge is ensuring our energy system storage is not diminished in the transition. The storage of molecular fuels – for example petrol, natural gas – is relatively straightforward, we have the infrastructure in place, and it has high energy density,” he said.

Hydrogen could provide part of the answer, he added. “Electrification comes with storage challenges – particularly ensuring there is a buffer to ensure that supply and demand are balance. That’s why we think hydrogen, along with electricity is crucial to energy resilience – to make sure there is an easily storable form of energy available, that works with the infrastructure we already have,” he added.

— CNBC’s Anmar Frangoul contributed to this report.

Refinery that supplies estimated one-third of Lower Mainland gas runs out of crude oil

Three of the main ways gas is supplied to the Lower Mainland and elsewhere in B.C. were disrupted by the flooding.

Author of the article:Joanne Lee-Young
Publishing date:Nov 23, 2021 •

A fuel delivery driver fills up the tanks of a gas station in Burnaby on Nov. 20.

PHOTO BY RICHARD LAM /PNG
Article content

A refinery that supplies an estimated one-third of the gas to the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island said Tuesday it has stopped processing operations because it had run out of crude oil due to the Trans Mountain pipeline shutdown after last week’s catastrophic flooding.

Calgary-based Parkland Corp.’s Burnaby refinery is now in “standby mode,” so that it can resume processing quickly once new shipments of crude arrive via the pipeline or rail.

“Parkland maintains some crude-oil storage on-site, so up until today, it has been able to continue operations,” said Kent Fellows, a professor at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

He said there is storage of crude oil as well as gasoline and diesel in the Lower Mainland that can be relied upon in the short run, but he hasn’t been able to find data on how much storage there is or how full it was before the flooding.

Three of the main ways gas is supplied to the Lower Mainland and elsewhere in B.C. were disrupted by the flooding.

“Trans Mountain would also normally be shipping about 27,000 barrels per day of gasoline and diesel from refineries near Edmonton to the Lower Mainland in B.C.,” said Fellows.

U.S. gasoline barges head to Vancouver after floods disrupt supply chains

U.S. imports are still running, but they usually only account for 12 per cent of the total gas supply, an estimate Fellows based on his analysis of information from a recent B.C. Utilities Commission report. It’s a much smaller base amount even as there are reports of barges with gasoline heading to B.C. from the U.S.

While Parkland normally supplies about 33 per cent of the gas to the Lower Mainland and the Island, refineries in Edmonton, shipping via Trans Mountain, usually supply about 32 per cent, and the same refineries, shipping via rail, supply about 23 per cent, said Fellows. He explained these are ballpark figures from his peer-reviewed and published research, but the exact data is often proprietary and not public.

“It’s no small piece of infrastructure” that has been impacted, agreed Toronto-based fuel analyst Dan McTeague, who is president of Canadians for Affordable Energy.

McTeague added there are some small fuel terminals in the Burrard Inlet, but their supply wouldn’t be significant enough to have an impact.

He said that, in terms of U.S. imports, it’s important to remember that while there are refineries in Seattle that can be tapped, the pipeline supplies 150,000 barrels of oil every day for three of the big five refineries in the Puget Sound and Anacortes areas of Washington state.

Some of these refineries do have the option of importing crude from elsewhere if it came to that extreme, said Martin King, a senior analyst who looks at Canadian gasoline supply for Houston-based consulting firm RBN Energy, LLC.

Nevertheless, “these are pretty limited pieces of infrastructure that can’t in themselves make up what the Trans Mountain pipeline does, and the longer that pipeline is out, obviously, the more disruptions you are going to create and the more significant the shortages may come to be,” said McTeague.

Trans Mountain said Tuesday afternoon that “if all planning and work continues to progress and no further issues with the pipeline are assessed, (it) is optimistic that we can restart the pipeline, in some capacity, by the end of the week. Key to successful execution of the restart plan will be access for equipment, fair weather and no new findings of concern.”

jlee-young@postmedia.com

Elon Musk: I Compose Half Of My Tweets On 'A Porcelain Throne'

Phil Hall , Benzinga Staff Writer
November 22, 2021

From the Department of Too Much Information: Tesla

TSLA -4.14% (Get Free Alerts for TSLA) CEO Elon Musk revealed that nearly half of his tweets are composed while he is answering the call of nature.

What Happened: Musk alerted his 64.4 million Twitter
TWTR -0.4% followers on Monday morning that “At least 50% of my tweets were made on a porcelain throne.”

Musk then added a brief explanation of why he pursued this unlikely multi-tasking route: “It gives me solace.”

If this source of inspiration is accurate, perhaps Musk might need more bran in his diet. His Monday morning tweeting included multiple tweets with the message “MOVE TO G!V|EAWAY. BSTREAM dot NET.”

See Also: Live Trading with Benzinga: Jerome Powell Nomination Reaction

Why It Matters: Musk also issued another tweet that told his followers, “I aspire to comedy.”

One person who is not particularly amused by Musk is JPMorgan Chase

JPM +2.35% CEO Jamie Dimon. According to a Wall Street Journal report citing unnamed sources, Dimon and Musk’s chronic ability to establish a friendly relationship created a level of hostility between their companies that culminated last week in a lawsuit filed by the bank that claimed Tesla owes it $162 million from a trade it helped to arrange in 2014.

“We have provided Tesla multiple opportunities to fulfill its contractual obligations, so it is unfortunate that they have forced this issue into litigation,” JPMorgan said last week when announcing the lawsuit.

Musk, however, responded with his trademark flippancy, telling the Journal, “If JPM doesn’t withdraw their lawsuit, I will give them a one star review on Yelp. This is my final warning

Last person born in 1800s dies in Philippines

Queen Victoria was on the throne when Susano was born.

Postmedia News

Nov 23, 2021 •

Francisca Susano, believed to be the oldest person in the world, has died. PHOTO BY SCREENGRAB /City Government of Kabankalan

The last person in the world born in the 1800s has died, according to reports.

Francisca Susano, who was known as Lola, died on Monday in Kabankalan, in the province of Negros Occidental in the Philippines

It’s believed that Susano was 124. Guinness World Records had reportedly been carrying out age verification in September to confirm she was born in the 19th Century, on Sept. 11, 1897.

The cause of death has not yet been determined. Queen Victoria was on the throne when Susano was born.

The oldest person now is Kane Tanaka, a 118-year-old Japanese woman.

It’s been reported there were roughly half a million people over the age of 100 this year.

Gert-Jan Van den Bergh and Maarten Sanders, Dutch lawyers representing Ukraine's interests in Scythian gold case

We believe that Ukraine will also prevail at the Supreme Court level

After seven years of legal war, the Amsterdam Court of Appeal decided to return the exhibits of an exhibition titled "Crimea – the Golden Island in the Black Sea" to Ukraine. The Ukrainian delegation applauded the decision of the Amsterdam court. Dutch lawyers representing Ukraine's interests did not hide their joy and congratulated each other and Ukraine on the victory.

However, the battle for the "Scythian gold" is not over. The Court of Appeal has rendered its judgment but this is not the final verdict. Four Crimean museums - the Central Museum of Tavrida, the Kerch Historical and Cultural Reserve, the Bakhchisaray Historical and Cultural Reserve and the Tauric Chersonese National Reserve - now have the right to appeal the judgment issued by the Amsterdam Court of Appeal at the Supreme Court of the Netherlands. Russia has already called the judgment completely politicized, saying that exhibits from Crimea should return to Crimea. Therefore, Russian representatives do not hide their intention to appeal the decision. The so-called "Russian Crimean museums" have three months to appeal. While the litigation continues, the collection will be stored in the Netherlands, at the Allard Pierson Museum in Amsterdam, at least until the court of cassation issues its ruling.

How many years can the process take before a final decision is made in this case? Ukrinform asked Dutch lawyers who, together with their Ukrainian colleagues from the Ministry of Justice and the Kyiv-based law firm Sergii Koziakov & Partners, represent Ukraine's interests in the Scythian gold case, how they are preparing for the new trial and the chances of Ukraine winning the case at the Supreme Court of the Netherlands.

THE NETHERLANDS NOT RECOGNIZING THE ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA IS A RELEVANT CIRCUMSTANCE FOR THE COURT

Question: What did the victory at the Amsterdam Court of Appeal mean to you?

Mr. Van den Bergh: The Court of Appeal confirmed that Ukraine has control over its own cultural heritage, based on the Ukrainian Museum Law. We applaud the fact that the court found its way in complex issues of Ukrainian cultural heritage law. The court confirmed what Ukraine has stated from the beginning: that the museum objects belong to the state part of the Museum Fund of Ukraine and should be regarded as an integral part of its cultural identity. As a sovereign nation, Ukraine can reclaim its cultural heritage.

Question: Russia said the judgment by the Court of Appeal was politically motivated. What do you think about this statement by Russia?

Mr. Sanders: The Amsterdam Court of Appeal based its decision on legal positions and grounds.

The fact that the State of the Netherlands does not recognize the annexation of Crimea (as most of the international community) is, of course, a relevant circumstance for the Court's decision. The Court of Appeal held that the treasures originate from Crimea, therefore are also to be considered as Crimean heritage and, therefore, are cultural heritage of Ukraine as it exists since 1991. This is a confirmation that the factual annexation by Russia has not had a legal effect in the Netherlands.

INTERNATIONAL LAW FULLY SUPPORTS UKRAINE'S CLAIM

Question: The District Court of Amsterdam ruled in December 2016 that the exhibits should be returned to Ukraine. Representatives of Crimean museums appealed the court's decision. After that, the proceedings started at the Amsterdam Court of Appeal. How difficult has this case been for you over the past seven years? How are you preparing for the trial at the Supreme Court of the Netherlands?

Mr. Sanders: It was a legal challenge also because the courts had to deal with complex legal issues of Ukrainian law and international law. Moreover, one of the judges in appeal was recused after two requests of the State of Ukraine. We subsequently had to explain the entire case again to the Court of Appeal in its new setting.

The Crimea Museums have indicated that they wish to appeal the matter at the Supreme Court of the Netherlands. At that level, only matters of law (not the facts) are relevant. We expect that the museums will dispute the application of the Ukrainian Museum Law. We, on the other hand, will provide supporting arguments for application of the UNESCO Convention 1970. Both Ukrainian law and international law support the return of the treasures to Ukraine. We will prepare our arguments together with a special counsel to the Supreme Court.

Question: In your opinion, what are the chances of "Russian Crimean museums" at the Supreme Court of the Netherlands? Is it possible that the Supreme Court will rule in their favor? How can this trial proceed in The Hague?

Mr. Van den Bergh: Both the District Court in Amsterdam and the Court of Appeal have confirmed that the treasures concern the national cultural heritage of Ukraine. In this respect, the Museum Law of Ukraine as well as international law fully support Ukraine's claim. We believe that it is difficult for the Crimean Museums to get around this principle and therefore we believe that Ukraine will also prevail at the Supreme Court level.

WHAT CRIMEAN MUSEUMS SAID

Question: What was the position of Crimean museums?

Mr. Van den Bergh: The Crimea Museums claimed that the Autonomous Republic of Crimea partly owned the treasures and that the museums had a right to manage the treasures. They argued that this right of 'operative management' of the museums is stronger than the rights of the State of Ukraine. They also claimed that the Allard Pierson Museum in Amsterdam simply guaranteed to return the treasures to the museums and that this contractual obligation should be performed by the Allard Pierson Museum, regardless of politics.

Question: What was the position of Ukraine?

Mr. Sanders: Ukraine's position was that international law dictates the return of the treasures to the country of origin in the current situation and that the State of Ukraine owns the treasures. Furthermore, it was explained that the Museum law granted the power to the Ministry of Culture of Ukraine to determine how the treasures should be temporarily safeguarded, during the period of the temporary annexation of Crimea.

Question: What was the reaction of Crimean museums to Ukraine's victory?

Mr. Van den Bergh: It was stated that the Crimea Museums are victim of a political situation and that the Crimea Museums may try to attack the judgment before the Supreme Court.

UNIQUE CASE IN MODERN LEGAL HISTORY

Question: Can the "Scythian gold" case be called a precedent? How can this experience affect future inter-museum contacts?

Mr. Sanders: It is definitely important that the Court of Appeal confirmed that a state can reclaim its own cultural heritage if there is a risk of loss of such heritage. It would even be better if the court would have said that this also follows from the UNESCO 1970 Convention. This could support exchange of cultural heritage in inter-museum contacts: if museums know that artefacts can always return to the country of origin, this will help museums and states loaning art.

Question: What was the most difficult thing for you in this case?

Mr. Van den Bergh: The fact is that the case is unique in modern legal history. The UNESCO 1970 treaty that we used to support the claim of Ukraine - next to Ukraine law - was never applied in a case like this. However, we are positive that the treaty is meant to solve cases like this.

HOW RUSSIA TRIED TO EXERT INFLUENCE

Question: The Dutch media reported that Russia is trying to intimidate the lawyers of relatives of those killed in the MH17 tragedy. Did you feel any pressure?

Mr. Sanders: We have never felt intimidated and did not have any signals in this regard.
But we are aware that this case is also a matter of great interest for the Russian Federation and that they are following the case closely.

Question: How did Russia try to influence this case?

Mr. Sanders: We have not seen any direct influence from Russia at the Court of Appeal. But the Russian government has made various public statements. It has said that handing over the treasures to Kyiv would be a political act and it has threatened to stop any further loans of cultural objects (such as art from the Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg) to Dutch museums. Obviously, the Court has not been influenced by these statements.

Iryna Drabok, The Hague
Photo credit: Iryna Drabok

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