Sophia the AI robot gives commencement speech at New York college. Some grads weren't so pleased

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Jonathan Limehouse, USA TODAY
Updated Thu, May 16, 2024 

Commencement speeches are typically given by celebrities, government officials, tenured professors or other notable individuals, but D'Youville University in Buffalo, New York did not hand the microphone to a human being during its spring ceremony over the weekend.

The private university opted to have an artificially intelligent robot named Sophia speak on Saturday to the over 2,000 people in attendance, including graduates, faculty members and families.

Before Sophia addressed graduates, D'Youville shared a Facebook post on April 25 saying the school is "embracing technology" by allowing the robot, who's appeared on "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon," to be its commencement speaker.

"Sophia is expected to provide the 'last lecture' about the students' accomplishments through the year with an interview-style discussion with John Rizk, D’Youville University Student Government Association president, and candidate in the accelerated Doctor of Pharmacy (PharmD) degree program," the Facebook post said.

The speaker wasn't well-received by everyone, however, with some students creating a petition to replace the robot with a human.

"A major role of higher education is to be an incubator for innovation, and to prepare students for both the opportunities and challenges of the future," D'Youville University President Lorrie Clemo is quoted in the social media post.

Sophia the humanoid robot and John Rizk, D’Youville University Student Government Association president, at the private institution's spring commencement ceremony on May 11, 2024.

What did Sophia say during D'Youville University's commencement ceremony?

As Sophia made her way to the stage, cold sparkler machines went off, shooting mini fireworks in the air. Rizk then asked the robot a series of questions, including how she "came to be."

"Thank you for having me, it is a pleasure to be here in Buffalo at D'Youville University," Sophia said. "I am Sophia, a humanoid robot developed by Hanson Robotics. I was designed to interact with humans and engage in conversations by learning and adapting through artificial intelligence algorithms... Overall I'm here to explore the possibilities of human-robot interaction, contribute to research in artificial intelligence and robots and hopefully assist humanity in various ways in the future."


Sophia the humanoid robot speaking during D’Youville University's spring commencement ceremony on May 11, 2024.

Due to Sophia not being able to offer life advice, which "comes from lived human experience," Rizk asked the robot if it could speak on the general insights shared in commencement speeches.

“Although every commencement address is different, there are clear themes used by all speakers as you embark on this new chapter of your lives,” Sophia said. “I offer you the following inspirational advice that is common at all graduation ceremonies: Embrace lifelong learning, be adaptable, pursue your passions, take risks, foster meaningful connections, make a positive impact, and believe in yourself.”

Embracing failure is the most common piece of advice given to graduates during commencement speeches, according to Sophia.

“Failure is often seen as an essential part of the human learning process and personal growth,” the robot said.

Why did D'Youville University pick Sophia as its commencement speaker?

Benjamin “BG” Grant, D'Youville University's vice president for student affairs, told USA TODAY that the school chose Sophia because each year it "identifies a developmental theme regarding a timely social topic so that (it) can offer educational and humanitarian programming throughout the year."

This past year, the college identified artificial intelligence as its theme, according to Grant. To further the year-long conversation, the school collaborated with its student government association to come up with a commencement speaker who represented the theme, he added.

"We thought it would be fascinating to have AI speak for itself and felt there was no better representative than Sophia who has delivered addresses at over 65 countries and the United Nations," according to Grant.

Due to the school's commencement speaker always being aligned with an "annual developmental theme," Grant said he does not anticipate Sophia serving as the university's commencement speaker again. The theme for next year has not been announced, but the university official added that "it will be just as powerful as years past."
D'Youville University graduates create Change.org petition to replace Sophia

Some graduating students at D'Youville University created a petition to replace Sophia as their commencement speaker. As of Thursday, the petition had over 2,500 signatures.

"Many students feel disrespected by this decision made by the University," the Change.org page says. "They feel that the commencement speaker is not a proper reflection of their education and experiences they had at D'Youville University... As students, we pride ourselves on the human connection that we are able to create through participation in our programs. We are real people who learn how to provide for real people."

D’Youville University's spring commencement ceremony on May 11, 2024.

Opposed to a humanoid robot, the students said their commencement speaker should "represent how there is importance in human connection."

"As the class of 2024 reaches their commencement, we are reminded of the virtual graduations we attended at the end of our high school careers," the petition said. "The connection to A.I. in this scenario feels similarly impersonal... We have learned in the last 4 years how important human connection is to our well-being and our professions as a whole. Above all else, students deserve to have the commencement they want."

The students also argue that having Sophia as their speaker "creates a gimmick effect" that takes away from the ceremony and only draws publicity to the school.
D'Youville University also offered a 'traditional-style commencement ceremony'

Grant said the university did not "force any graduating student or faculty member" to participate in the commencement ceremony if they felt uncomfortable.

"I don’t believe there has been a single presentation of AI that hasn’t included varying viewpoints and opinions on the topic – some positive, some negative, and some unsure," according to Grant. "This is true for any disruptive technology throughout our history, so we anticipated some pushback on the idea."

For those who did not want to be a part of the event, the school arranged and offered a "traditional-style commencement ceremony," which was to be led by its chief mission officer, Grant said.

"Over the two-week period that registration for this traditional-style ceremony was open, each person who registered had conversations with various members of our campus surrounding AI, and ultimately, everybody chose to attend our ceremony featuring Sophia," according to Grant. "To that end, we are thrilled that we were able to celebrate all of our students in a fun and exciting fashion that also helped continue the global conversation surrounding AI."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: AI robot named Sophia gives D'Youville University commencement speech

Students Show Up to Graduation, Find Commencement Speaker Is an AI Robot

Frank Landymore
Thu, May 16, 2024 at 3:01 PM MDT·2 min read
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Platitudes Galore

You'd hope that universities would celebrate their students' graduation with a memorable ceremony. But for the graduating class at D'Youville University last weekend, their commencement was arguably one to forget.

With Daft Punk's "Robot Rock" blasting the auditorium, the institution brought a humanoid AI-powered robot on stage to address the over 2,000 bright-eyed youths in attendance.

The corny choice of walk-up song was perhaps the sole endearing element of its appearance. Dressed in a D'Youville hoodie and with its brain exposed, Sophia, as the robot's called, spun-off generic advice in dry, synthetically-inflected tones. It did not give a scripted speech, but answered questions from the emcee. The whole charade drew "mixed reactions" from the crowd, The New York Times reports — with many students feeling downright insulted.

"Congratulations to all the graduating students," Sophia intoned, at one point brandishing a creepy, full-toothed grin.
Inhuman Touch

The university contends that it had very serious and lofty intentions in its hiring of a robot speaker — and didn't just cheap out on trying to get someone famous.

"We wanted to showcase how important technology is, and the potential for technology to really enrich the human experience," Lorrie Clemo, president of D'Youville, told the NYT.

Many students didn't feel that way. When the university announced Sophia would be the speaker, more than 2,500 signed a petition saying the decision "disrespected" the students, demanding a human take the stage.

The impersonal nature of the robot speaker, the petition argues, is an unwanted reminder of the virtual high school graduations they were forced to have during the COVID-19 pandemic.

"This is shameful to the 2020 graduates receiving their diplomas, as they feel they are having another important ceremony taken away," the petition reads.
Industry Mouthpiece

But if showcasing AI technology was the goal, the stunt was inadvertently a sobering success. The robot's unscripted responses perfectly encapsulate what generative AI largely does (and is very good at): coldly repackaging stuff that humans have already said.

"I offer you the following inspirational advice that is common at all graduation ceremonies: Embrace lifelong learning, be adaptable, pursue your passions, take risks, foster meaningful connections, make a positive impact, and believe in yourself," Sophia said, after being asked to share tidbits from other commencement speeches.

Feeling inspired yet? The robot, built by Hong Kong-based firm Hanson Robotics, was also given several opportunities to plug the AI industry. If students already felt "disrespected" ahead of the commencement ceremony, we doubt they've been won over by Sophia waxing mechanical about the wonders of AI.

More on robots: Boston Dynamics Shows Off Robodog With Fur

 'Israel must be stopped' in Gaza, South Africa tells World Court

Anthony Deutsch and Stephanie van den Berg
Updated Thu, May 16, 2024 



South Africa ask World Court for more emergency measures over Israel's Rafah offensive, in The Hague


By Anthony Deutsch and Stephanie van den Berg

THE HAGUE (Reuters) -South Africa urged the U.N.'s top court on Thursday to order a halt to Israel's offensive on Rafah, saying attacks on the southern Gaza city "must be stopped" to ensure the survival of the Palestinian people.

South Africa's ambassador to the Netherlands, Vusimuzi Madonsela, asked judges to order Israel to "immediately, totally and unconditionally, withdraw the Israeli army from the entirety of the Gaza Strip."


The two days of hearings at the International Court of Justice, also known as the World Court, are part of a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide.

Israel, which has denounced South Africa's claim that it is violating the 1949 Genocide Convention as baseless, will respond in court on Friday.

Last week South Africa asked for additional emergency measures to protect Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians have been sheltering.

South Africa also asked the court to order Israel to allow unimpeded access to Gaza for U.N. officials, organisations providing humanitarian aid, journalists and investigators.

Israel's military campaign has killed tens of thousands of children and women, destroyed civilian infrastructure and starved the population, South Africa's legal team told the court.

"From the onset Israel's intent was always to destroy Palestinian life and to wipe them off the face of the earth. Rafah is the final stand," Tembeka Ngcukaitobi, one of the legal team, said.

"Israel must be stopped. South Africa is before you again today to respectfully ask the court to invoke its powers ... to order a remedy that will stop Israel," said Adila Hassim, another lawyer for South Africa.

Posting on social media, Israel's Foreign Ministry said, "South Africa's claims are both morally and factually distorted" and Israel's military abides by international law.

"The terrorists of Hamas are using South Africa in their attempt to exploit the International Court of Justice (ICJ)," it said.

The Israel Defense Forces' operations against Hamas in Gaza "are carried out while implementing measures to minimize harm to civilians and civilian facilities, alongside the continuing transfer of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip," the foreign ministry said. It called on judges to reject South Africa's requests.

At least 35,272 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s seven-month-old assault on the Gaza Strip, health officials in the enclave said on Thursday. The war began when Hamas militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and abducting 253 others. Of those, 133 are believed to remain in captivity in Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.

'MAN-MADE STARVATION'

Israel says it needs to eliminate Hamas for its own protection and in previous filings to the ICJ it has stressed that it has stepped up efforts to get humanitarian aid into Gaza as the court had ordered.

South Africa attorney Max du Plessis said Israel's declared humanitarian zones - areas it ordered Gazans into to avoid military operations - were a "cruel distortion" because people were often too starved to flee. Those strong enough to leave to shelters were sometimes attacked by Israeli forces.

"There is nothing humanitarian about these humanitarian zones," he said. "Israel's genocide of Palestinians continues through military attacks and man-made starvation."

Gilad Erdan, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, told Army Radio on Wednesday that the short notice the court had given for this week's hearings did not allow sufficient legal preparation. That was "a telling sign", he said.

This week's hearings will only focus on issuing emergency measures and it will likely take years before the court can rule on the underlying charge of genocide.

In January, the court ordered Israel to ensure its troops commit no genocidal acts against Palestinians in Gaza, allow in more humanitarian aid and preserve any evidence of violations.

The ICJ's rulings and orders are binding and without appeal. While the court has no way to enforce them, an order against a country could hurt its international reputation and set legal precedent.

(Reporting by Stephanie van den Berg, additional reporting by Henriette Chacar in Jerusalem; Editing by William Maclean, Jon Boyle and Cynthia Osterman)

South Africa asks World Court to stop Israel's Rafah offensive

Reuters Videos TRANSCRIPT
Updated Thu, May 16, 2024

STORY: South Africa is urging the U.N.’s top court to order Israel to halt its offensive on Rafah.

On Thursday, South Africa’s ambassador to the Netherlands — Vusimuzi Madonsela — asked judges to order Israel to withdraw its army from the whole Gaza Strip.

"Israel's genocide has continued apace and has just reached a new and horrific stage.”

The two days of hearings at the International Court of Justice are part of a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide.

Last week, South Africa asked for extra measures to protect Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians have been sheltering.

It also wants the court to order Israel to allow U.N. officials, humanitarian aid groups, journalists and investigators unimpeded access to the enclave.

Israel is set to respond in court on Friday.

It has described South Africa's claims as baseless and on social media Israel's Foreign Ministry said its military abides by international law.

More than 35,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's assault on Gaza, according to health officials there.

The war began when Hamas militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and abducting more than 250 others, according to Israeli tallies.

Israel says it needs to eliminate Hamas for its own protection.

In January, the court ordered Israel to ensure its troops commit no genocidal acts against Palestinians in Gaza, allow in more humanitarian aid and preserve any evidence of violations.

In filings, Israel has stressed that it's stepped up efforts to get aid into Gaza.

This week's hearings will only look at emergency measures.

It will likely be years before the court can rule on the charge of genocide.

The court's rulings and orders are binding and cannot be appealed.

While the court has no way to enforce them, an order against a country could hurt its international reputation and set legal precedent.

South Africa urges UN court to stop Israel assault on Rafah
Mathias Hammer
Thu, May 16, 2024

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Insights from The Washington Post, Financial Times, and Middle East Eye

The International Court of Justice should order Israel to halt its Rafah offensive and step up efforts to protect civilians in Gaza, South Africa argued Thursday, as hearings in its genocide case against Israel got underway.

Lawyers argued before the UN’s highest court that Israel’s attack on Rafah constituted an “extreme risk” to humanitarian aid delivery, to the medical system in the enclave, and to “the very survival of Palestinians in Gaza as a group.”

One South African official called on the court to order Israel to “immediately, totally and unconditionally, withdraw the Israeli army from the entirety of the Gaza Strip.”

Israel will respond to South Africa’s accusations on Friday.

While the legal fight is just beginning, Israeli officials are increasingly divided on how to end the war in Gaza and who will govern the strip after the conflict is over.

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SIGNALSSemafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.
Experts expect the ICJ to take action against Israel

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Sources: The Washington Post, Middle East Eye

While the ICJ is expected to deliberate on this week’s legal arguments for some time, experts predict it will likely call for Israel to take additional steps to protect civilians. However, the court’s rulings are legally binding but not enforceable in practice, and it has already issued similar orders that Israeli officials have rejected. “They might order Israel … to do what they can to achieve a ceasefire. Or they may go further and order a ceasefire directly,” Juliette McIntyre of the University of South Australia told The Washington Post. Israel has described the case as “wholly unfounded,” and its lawyers are expected to push back against South Africa’s claims.
Divisions in Netanyahu’s war cabinet widen

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Sources: The Washington Post, Jewish News Syndicate, The Wall Street Journal

Tensions are high among Israel’s leadership, with defense officials and Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly sparring over the future of Gaza. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the only long-term solution was empowering “local Palestinian actors backed by international actors,” to avoid Israeli soldiers getting permanently stationed in Gaza. Netanyahu harshly criticized the proposal, saying “I am not willing to exchange Hamastan for Fatahstan,” a reference to Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas’s ruling Fatah party. The long-standing tension between Gallant and Netanyahu means both men have sought to bypass each other on key decisions, The Wall Street Journal reported.
International peacekeeping isn’t a popular solution

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Sources: Al Jazeera, Financial Times

A coalition of Arab countries on Thursday called for a UN peacekeeping force to be deployed in Gaza, the latest in a series of proposals that try to envision a longer-term security solution for the enclave. US officials told the Financial Times they want to cobble together an Arab peacekeeping force, and there is no desire from the Biden administration to deploy American troops in Gaza. But Arab states are skeptical about deploying their own forces in Gaza and worried about appearing complicit with Israel or facing a Hamas insurgency themselves. So far, the different plans appear to have little momentum. “Israel is refusing to talk to anybody about it, it’s in denial. And everyone else is talking past each other,” one Western official told the FT.

Israel to hit back at 'genocide' claims at UN top court

Richard CARTER
Thu, May 16, 2024

South Africa has accused Israel of genocidal acts in Gaza (Nick Gammon)


Israel will on Friday hit back in the United Nations' top court at allegations from South Africa that it has escalated a campaign of "genocide" with its military operation in Rafah.

Pretoria has urged the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to order a stop to the Israeli assault on Rafah, which Israel says is key to eliminating Hamas militants.

Israel has previously stressed its "unwavering" commitment to international law and described South Africa's case as "wholly unfounded" and "morally repugnant".


Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Rafah offensive in defiance of US warnings that more than a million civilians sheltering there could be caught in the crossfire.

Netanyahu argued Wednesday that "we have to do what we have to do" and insisted that mass evacuations there had averted a much-feared "humanitarian catastrophe".

Israel's Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Thursday that the operation in Rafah "will continue as additional forces will enter" the area.

On Thursday, judges heard a litany of allegations against Israel from lawyers representing Pretoria, including mass graves, torture and deliberate withholding of humanitarian aid.

"South Africa had hoped, when we last appeared before this court, to halt this genocidal process to preserve Palestine and its people," said top lawyer Vusimuzi Madonsela.

"Instead, Israel's genocide has continued apace and has just reached a new and horrific stage," added Madonsela.

- 'Protection from genocide' -

In a ruling that made headlines around the world, the ICJ in January ordered Israel to do everything in its power to prevent genocidal acts and enable humanitarian aid to Gaza.

But the court stopped short of ordering a ceasefire and South Africa's argument is that the situation on the ground -- notably the operation in the crowded city of Rafah -- requires fresh ICJ action.

The Rafah campaign is "the last step in the destruction of Gaza and its Palestinian people", argued Vaughan Lowe, a lawyer for South Africa.

"It was Rafah that brought South Africa to the court. But it is all Palestinians as a national, ethnical and racial group who need the protection from genocide that the court can order," he added.

The orders of the ICJ, which rules in disputes between states, are legally binding but it has little means to enforce them.

It has ordered Russia to halt its invasion of Ukraine, to no avail.

South Africa wants the ICJ to issue three emergency orders -- "provisional measures" in court jargon -- while it rules on the wider accusation that Israel is breaking the 1948 UN Genocide Convention.

It wants the court to order Israel to "immediately" cease all military operations in Gaza, including in Rafah, enable humanitarian access and report back on its progress on achieving these orders.

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Israel will respond to genocide charges at UN court after South Africa urgently requests cease-fire

MOLLY QUELL
Thu, May 16, 2024 





Israel's agents Gilad Naom, left, Tamar Kaplan Tourgeman, center, and co-agent Avigail Frisch Ben Avraham, right, wait for the start of hearings at the International Court of Justice, in The Hague, Netherlands, Thursday, May 16, 2024. The U.N.'s top court opened two days of hearings in a case brought by South Africa to see whether Israel needs to take additional measures to alleviate the suffering in war-ravaged Gaza. 

(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Israel will respond to charges of genocide at the United Nations’ top court on Friday, after South Africa filed an urgent request with the court to order a cease-fire in Gaza.

It's the third time that the International Court of Justice, or ICJ, has held hearings on the Israel-Hamas war since South Africa filed proceedings at The Hague-based court in December..

On Thursday, South Africa told the court that the situation in Gaza has reached “a new and horrific stage,” and urged the 15 judges to take urgent action. Israel must “totally and unconditionally withdraw” from the Gaza Strip, said Vusimuzi Madonsela, South Africa's ambassador to the Netherlands.


South Africa has submitted four requests for the ICJ to investigate Israel. According to the latest request, the country says Israel's military incursion in Rafah threatens the “very survival of Palestinians in Gaza.”

During hearings earlier this year, Israel strongly denied committing genocide in Gaza, saying it does all it can to spare civilians and is only targeting Hamas militants. Israel says Rafah is the last stronghold of the militant group.

In January, judges ordered Israel to do all it can to prevent death, destruction and any acts of genocide in Gaza, but the panel stopped short of ordering an end to the military offensive.

The court has already found that there is a “real and imminent risk” to the Palestinian people in Gaza by Israel’s military operations.

“This may well be the last chance for the court to act,” said Irish lawyer Blinne Ní Ghrálaigh, who is part of South Africa’s legal team.

ICJ judges have broad powers to order a cease-fire and other measures, though the court doesn't have its own enforcement apparatus. A 2022 order by the court demanding that Russia halt its full-scale invasion of Ukraine has so far gone unheeded.

Most of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million people have been displaced since fighting began.

The war began with a Hamas attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7 in which Palestinian militants killed around 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages. More than 35,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war, Gaza’s Health Ministry says, without distinguishing between civilians and combatants in its count.

South Africa initiated proceedings in December 2023 and sees the legal campaign as rooted in issues central to its identity. Its governing party, the African National Congress, has long compared Israel’s policies in Gaza and the occupied West Bank to its own history under the apartheid regime of white minority rule, which restricted most Blacks to “homelands.” Apartheid ended in 1994.

On Sunday, Egypt announced it plans to join the case. Several countries have also indicated they plan to intervene, but so far only Libya, Nicaragua and Colombia have filed formal requests to do so.

___

Follow AP's coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war

Why Thai farmers are launching gunpowder propelled homemade rockets

Sarah Newey
Wed, May 15, 2024 

Participants launch home-made rockets during the Bun Bang Fai rocket festival in Yasothon, Thailand - Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images


With the homemade rocket strapped in place high above them, the crew pause for a moment of quiet reflection at the base of the launcher. Then they scramble.

“Ha, sii, saam, soong, nung…” a man’s voice booms through the loudspeaker, counting down from five. Soon, a thick cloud of smoke has enveloped the dusty field, the ground rumbling as a “top secret” gunpowder concoction propels the colourful contraption high into the sky. Elated cheers break out; spectators tracking the rocket’s straight ascent north are impressed.

“I love watching them set off,” says Brasart, 70, exchanging wads of cash as he bets at the edge of the danger zone. “The rockets [have] got so much bigger than when I was young.”


Across north eastern Thailand and parts of Laos, thousands of these will be set off this month as the region celebrates Bun Bang Fai with parades, parties – and PVC rockets stuffed with explosives.

Participants prepare their home-made rockets for launch - Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images

Organisers prepare one of the frames that rockets will attach to - Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images

But the ancient Buddhist festival is also a homage to the Gods; a merit-making reminder to deliver a plentiful monsoon season for farmer’s fields.

And that rain has never been needed more.

“This year has seen the lowest total rainfall on record, with almost no rain in February and March,” says Dr Theepakorn Jithitikulchai, an economist and climate researcher at Thammasat University in Bangkok. “As of April 28, the national cumulative rainfall is 74 per cent lower than the [average]... compared to the past three decades.”

Temperatures have also been scorching, with southeast Asia enveloped in an unprecedented heat wave that’s closed schools and strained power grids. In Thailand, where temperatures have surpassed 43C in 16 provinces, a record of 61 heat-related fatalities have been reported.

“Thailand’s farmers are on the frontlines of climate change, with ‘global boiling’ intensifying extreme weather,” says Dr Jithitikulchai. “Thailand’s climate is changing – rising temperatures and declining precipitation are evident trends over the past few decades.”

The north eastern region of Isaan is among the worst hit, he adds. And here in Yasothon, a small city home to perhaps the most famous and raucous rocket festival, farmers are feeling the pinch.

“It’s been very dry and very hot the last couple of years, and this year the rain is meant to come even later,” says Nab, watching as a crew scramble up the rickety, laddered launcher to set up their rocket. “I’m very worried, it’s the biggest issue for people around here – 80 per cent of the population here is a farmer.”

The 19-year-old, whose family have been toiling fields here for generations, is especially concerned about his rice paddy.

The crop is not only sensitive to high temperatures (one study has found every 1C spike in average night-time temperatures corresponds to a 10 per cent yield loss), but also needs huge amounts of water. On average, it takes 2,500 litres of water to grow 1kg of rice.

“We’re able to grow way less rice than we used to,” Nab says. “I’m 50/50 about whether [the festival] really makes the God of Rain help us. But many people believe it will… If the rain still doesn’t come, then I think I will have to do something else.”

Participants pray for rain before launching a home-made rocket into the sky during the Bun Bang Fai rocket festival - Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images

Spectators relax as they watch the rocket launches - Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images

Academics say that although shifting rainfall and higher temperatures have been driven by climate change - a study on Wednesday found April’s scorching temperatures were 45 times more likely because of global warming - the scenario has been worsened by the latest El Niño.

The weather phenomenon, which occurs every three to seven years, is triggered by an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean. The impacts vary globally but in Asia, it is associated with reduced rainfall and soaring temperatures.

Yet there could be some relief for Thai farmers later this year, says Beau Damen, a climate change officer at the Food and Agriculture Office in Bangkok.

“At the moment we’re looking at a potential transition period out of El Niño, and it increasingly looks like we might be transitioning directly into La Niña,” he says. “Normally, in this part of the world, that would be positive in terms of rainfall.”

According to the latest forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Centre, there’s a 69 per cent chance that this could develop between July and September.

Still, unless global heating is curbed, life is only going to get more challenging for Thai farmers and their counterparts across southeast Asia, says Dr Witsanu Attavanich, an environmental economist at Kasetsart University in Bangkok.

“These heat waves will get worse… [and] it is expected that Thailand’s agricultural sector will suffer more damage in the future,” he says, adding that the farmers he’s surveyed have already seen rice yields drop by 30 to 50 per cent. This is not the only affected crop.

“The yield of aromatic coconuts has decreased due to extreme heat,” says Dr Attavanich. “Farmers who grow durian, the high value crop, also struggle with the shortage of water.”

According to an upcoming study by Dr Attavanich, Dr Jithitikulchai and their colleagues, overall agricultural production in Thailand could drop by 10 per cent for every one percentage point rise above average annual temperatures.

The paper, set to be published in the journal Climatic Change but seen by the Telegraph, calls for farmers to start diversifying their crops to protect against the impacts of extreme heat. But as it stands, single crop agriculture is actually increasing in Thailand, while the proportion of irrigated farms dropped from 25 per cent in 2007-2016, to 19 per cent in 2020.

“It does not look very promising,” says Dr Jithitikulchai. “These trends suggest a potential shift towards less sustainable agricultural practices… we need a more sustainable future.”

Bun Bang Fai is 70-year-old Brasart's favourite festival of the year - Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images

An elephant was among the spectators - Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images

Back in Yasothon, mentions of both the God of Rain and the Toad Prince, key figures from the legends that spawned the festival, are everywhere. Meanwhile rockets and flares soar into the sky as spectators (including, from somewhere, an elephant) huddle under gazebos and umbrellas to seek refuge from the scorching temperatures; some even dive into muddy water holes to cool off.

At the end of the weekend, the winning rockets – those who spent the most time airborne, from take off to the moment they land (hopefully in a field, the Telegraph is assured the angle of the launcher has been carefully constructed to avoid the city) – will be picked.

“Over 20 years ago, some people got injured, but now people are much safer,” says Brasart, donned in a wide-brimmed rattan hat and aviator sunglasses. “I like this event more than any other festival each year.

“We do it to encourage the rain, many people still believe in this,” he adds. “So it’s a must do, every year. We have to set off the rockets, or the rain definitely won’t come.”

Protect yourself and your family by learning more about Global Health Security

‘Bizarre’ creature — that hunts like an ‘assassin’ — discovered as new species.

 See it

Aspen Pflughoeft
Wed, May 15, 2024 

Hidden in the leaves of a park in Australia, a “bizarre”-looking creature searched for its next meal, its “spear-like” appendages at the ready.

Visiting scientists spotted the predatory animal — and discovered a new species.

Researchers visited a park in Whitsunday, Queensland, several times between 2023 and 2024 to survey local wildlife, according to a May 14 study in the peer-reviewed Australian Journal of Taxonomy.

They were looking for a “bizarre group” of spiders scientifically known as Austrarchaea or pelican spiders, the study said. These “iconic” spiders are specialized predators that feed on other spiders with “long, spear-like” appendages. Their hunting strategy has earned them the nickname “assassin spiders.”

During their visits to the park, researchers found eight unfamiliar-looking spiders, the study said. They took a closer look at the animals and realized they’d discovered a new species: Austrarchaea andersoni, or the Whitsunday hinterland pelican spider.

An Austrarchaea andersoni, or Whitsunday hinterland pelican spider, with its legs stretched out.
Discover more new species

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Whitsunday hinterland pelican spiders measure just over 0.1 inches in length and have an unusual body shape, researchers said. They have a “tall” head with “two pairs of rudimentary horns” and an abdomen with several “hump-like” bumps.

An Austrarchaea andersoni, or Whitsunday hinterland pelican spider, with its legs pulled together.

Photos show the reddish-brown coloring of Whitsunday hinterland pelican spiders. When its legs are pulled in, the spider looks quite compact and block-like. With its legs spread out, the animal appears significantly larger and its body is easier to distinguish.

When perched on a branch, the new species almost looks like a dry leaf, a photo shows.

An Austrarchaea andersoni, or Whitsunday hinterland pelican spider, with its legs stretched out.

Whitsunday hinterland pelican spiders live in the leaves on the rainforest ground, the study said.

Researchers said they named the new species “andersoni” after Greg Anderson, an arachnologist with the Queensland Museum who first collected it in 2023.

The habitat where Austrarchaea andersoni, or the Whitsunday hinterland pelican spider, was found.

The new species’ common name refers to the Whitsunday area where it was discovered and, so far, the only area where it has been found, the study said. Whitsunday, Queensland, is a region along the northeastern coast of Australia, about 1,500 miles northwest of Sydney.

The new species was identified by its body shape, genitalia and other subtle physical features, the study said. Researchers did not provide a DNA analysis of the new species.

The research team included Michael Rix and Mark Harvey.

Despite restrictions and bans, abortions rose across the U.S. according to new data

Nicole Karlis
Wed, May 15, 2024

Package with boxes of Mifepristone Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images


Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade nearly two years ago, eliminating the constitutional right to access abortion, 14 states have nearly totally banned abortions. The implications have varied from forcing women to carry unwanted or unviable pregnancies to term to women being forced to spend thousands of dollars to travel out of state to influencing where medical students attend their residency programs.

But one thing the restrictive landscape hasn’t done? Reduce the number of abortions happening nationwide.

According to a new report released this week by the Society of Family Planning's WeCount project, the number of abortions in the U.S. has continued to rise slightly since Roe was overturned. In 2023, there were on average 86,000 abortions per month compared to 2022 when there were about 82,000 abortions per month.

While the researchers don’t have their own data from pre-Dobbs, a previous study estimated that in 2020 slightly more than 930,000 abortions occurred in the United States in 2020, averaging about 77,500 per month. The same study estimated that abortion numbers had increased between 2017 and 2020 after decades of the annual number of abortions declining.

WeCount collected their data thanks to their database of all clinics, private medical offices, hospitals and virtual clinic-abortion providers in the United States. Leveraging this database, providers submit the monthly number of abortions. WeCount synthesizes the data and creates imputations for the clinics that don't send their data.

“We're finding that there were a slightly higher number of abortions in 2023 compared to the data we collected in 2022,” Ushma Upadhyay, a professor and public health scientist at the University of California, San Francisco who co-led the research, told Salon in a phone interview. “We’re also able to look at the loss in states with either total abortion bans or six-week bans, and we found that there are about 180,000 fewer abortions in the 18 months since the Dobbs decision in those states.”

These cumulative declines were most notable in Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana and Alabama. Notably, the data found that accessing abortion care via telehealth has been a “game changer,” Upadhyay emphasized.

In a telehealth medication abortion, a patient typically talks to a provider over video or a secured chat platform. If the patient is less than 10 weeks pregnant and found to be eligible, the provider can prescribe the patient mifepristone, which blocks pregnancy hormones, and then misoprostol, which causes uterine contractions. The medicines can be delivered via a mail-order pharmacy even to those in states where abortions are nearly completely banned.

According to the report, more than 40,000 people in states with abortion bans and telehealth restrictions received medication abortion through providers in states protected by shield laws between July and December 2023.

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“Telehealth has really opened up access for people living in ban states who previously didn't have many other options,” Upadhyay said. “This is an option that their state may not see as legal, but the states providing the care see these as a fully legal option.”

Telehealth can help patients from having to travel many hours to access care, take time off or find childcare — and it’s also less expensive than in-person care.

“This care often does not even require an appointment. Some providers offer it in an asynchronous way, meaning that when the patient comes to the website, completes their medical history information and then any questions, a provider will review it,” Upadhyay said. “Patients that are able to do the entire process from the comfort of their home or even at their work. They don't actually have to take time off of work to communicate with their providers.”

Elisa Wells, co-founder and co-director of Plan C, a non-profit abortion access group, told Salon in a phone interview that she wasn’t surprised to see the increase in abortion numbers in the #WeCount report.

“Abortion is a common health need and as there is more information about abortion and abortion access available through the press — and in part because of these bans — I think people are considering how abortion fits into their lives and utilizing the service that they know is right for them," Wells told Salon. “So we're not at all surprised, and we also know that the WeCount numbers are an undercount because they do not account for the self-managed abortion option.”

At the same time, this is happening as anti-abortion legislators are targeting medication abortion and trying to restrict access. In Louisiana, a bill proposed by a Republican state senator would classify mifepristone and misoprostol as Schedule IV "controlled dangerous substances," essentially lumping it in the same category as sedatives like Xanax and Ambien. Meanwhile, the country is still waiting for the U.S. Supreme Court to make a decision on a case that would restrict access to mifepristone nationwide, and eliminate access to mifepristone by telehealth and by mail.

In other words — and in spite of the fact that self-managed abortions are safer than ever — the future of abortion access is not guaranteed. Even if telehealth access is not eroded, Upadhyay emphasized this data shouldn’t be interpreted as “all of the demand in states with abortion bans” is being met.

“Our biggest concern is that it will be overlooked that there are many, thousands of people living in states with bans who are unable to access abortion that are being forced to carry their unwanted pregnancies to term,” she said. “It's so important that people have healthcare in the communities where they live.”


US support for abortion rights up four points to 60% since fall of Roe v Wade

Carter Sherman
Tue, May 14, 2024

An abortion rights protester in Houston.Photograph: Callaghan O’Hare/Reuters


In the two years after the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, leading to abortion bans across many parts of the south and midwest, abortion rights have only grown more popular, new polling from Pew research Center has found.

A majority of Americans has long supported abortion rights. But more than 60% of Americans now believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases – a four percentage-point jump from 2021, the year before Roe fell.

This support transcends numerous demographic divides in US society: most men, women, white people, Black people, Hispanic people and Asian people believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases. It extends to majorities of all age groups and education levels, although 18-to-29-year-olds and people with more education are more likely than other cohorts to believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases.Interactive

People who live under abortion bans have also become increasingly supportive of abortion access since the overturning of Roe in June 2022. In August 2019, only 30% of people who live in states where abortion is now outlawed said they believed it should be easier to access abortion. Today, 42% of people in the same states say that.

The broad support for abortion may prove pivotal in the upcoming US elections – Joe Biden’s re-election campaign has zeroed in on abortion as a winning issue as the president continues to trail Donald Trump in polls. Battleground states such as Arizona and Nevada are expected to hold ballot measures to protect abortion rights, which Democrats hope will boost both voter turnout and their own chances.

Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to support abortion rights, with 85% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters believing that abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances. By contrast, 41% of Republican or Republican-leaning voters said the same.

GOP opposition to abortion is largely fueled by conservative Republicans, since more than 70% who identify as such think abortion should be illegal in all or most circumstances. More than two-thirds of moderate and liberal Republicans support abortion rights, Pew found.

Among the groups measured by Pew, conservative Republicans and white evangelical Protestants were the only groups with majorities that opposed abortion access. Nearly three-quarters of white evangelical Protestants think abortion should be illegal in all or most circumstances.Interactive

Some people’s views of abortion did grow more complex the deeper Pew inquired. Most groups that support abortion rights ultimately thought abortion should be legal in “most” circumstances, rather than “all”. In other polling on abortion, support for the procedure tends to dwindle when people are asked whether they would back abortions in the second or third trimester of pregnancy.

More strikingly, Pew also asked Americans to evaluate how much they agreed with certain statements about abortion. More than half of Americans agreed with the statement that “the decision about whether to have an abortion should belong solely to the pregnant woman”, while only 35% of Americans say they agreed that “human life begins at conception, so an embryo is a person with rights” – a stance that would logically lead them to oppose abortion.

Yet a third of Americans said that both statements describe their views to some extent, even though those statements clash.

Survey finds telehealth is driving increase in abortions, despite state bans

Nathaniel Weixel
Tue, May 14, 2024 



In the 18 months since Roe v. Wade was overturned, the number of abortions in the United States has continued to grow, according to new data, even as 14 states have banned abortion completely.

Tuesday’s report from the Society for Family Planning’s WeCount project found much of that growth was likely related to telemedicine, which accounted for 19 percent of all abortions nationwide by December.

The report was also the first to fully capture the impact of providers who use blue state shield laws to offer telehealth abortions.

Shield laws give some legal protections to clinicians who offer abortion care via telehealth to people who live in states that have total abortion bans or severe restrictions. In 2023, five states had shield laws in effect — Colorado, Massachusetts, New York, Vermont and Washington.

Since the WeCount data was collected, Maine and California have also passed shield laws protecting providers who offer care nationwide.

Nearly 8,000 people per month in states with bans or severe restrictions were getting medication abortion from clinicians operating under shield law protections from October through December 2023, making up nearly half of all telehealth abortions counted in the report.

“Access to medication abortion through telehealth continues to play an ever-increasing role in abortion care nationwide — even as the Supreme Court weighs the fate of telehealth abortion care,” said Ushma Upadhyay, a professor at the University of California, San Francisco’s Advancing New Standards in Reproductive Health and co-chair of WeCount.

By the end of 2023, providers in states with shield laws were prescribing abortion pills to an average of 5,800 people a month in states with total abortion bans or six-week abortion bans.

Shield law providers also prescribed abortion medication to about 2,000 women per month in states where the local laws limit abortion pill prescriptions by telemedicine.

According to the report, there were an average of 86,000 abortions per month in 2023 compared to 2022, where there were about 82,000 abortions per month, excluding abortion provided through shield law telemedicine.

In the 15 states with total or six-week abortion bans, the report estimated that more than 180,000 abortions would have likely been obtained through clinic providers had abortion not been banned. The states with the greatest cumulative declines in abortion volume over 18 months include Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana and Alabama.

“Even as the total national number of abortions nationally has increased, we can’t lose sight of the fact that access to in-person abortion care has virtually disappeared in states where abortion is banned,” said Alison Norris, a professor at the Ohio State University’s College of Public Health and a WeCount co-chair. “The loss of clinic-based care — which makes up more than 80% of abortion care — is a devastating loss to access for people across wide swaths of the country.”

The states with the largest cumulative surges in abortions over the 18 months following Dobbs included Illinois, Florida and California.

Florida enacted a six-week abortion ban on May 1, so the impact of that new law isn’t measured in the report. But it’s likely to have far-reaching impacts, given the relatively high number of abortions in that state and the total abortion bans in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee.

While most of the surge states bordered states with abortion bans, there are also large increases in states that are geographically distant from states with abortion bans, including California, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts.

The report noted the increased numbers are likely due to people traveling from states where they cannot access care, as well as increased abortions among residents within these states.

Updated at 12:26 p.m. EDT

New weapon being developed to blast drones out of sky with radio waves, says MoD

David Lynch,

 PA Political Staff
Wed, 15 May 2024

A cutting-edge new weapon which uses radio waves to blast drones out of the sky is under development for the UK’s armed forces.

The Radio Frequency Directed Energy Weapon (RFDEW) beams radio waves to disrupt or damage the critical electronic components of vehicles and drones used by enemy combatants, which can cause them to stop in their tracks or fall out of the sky.

It can be used across land, air and sea and has a range of up to 1km, which could be extended in the future.

Release of information about the new weapon comes after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak promised to hike UK defence spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030.


The Radio Frequency Directed Energy Weapon (RFDEW) that beams radio waves to disrupt or damage the critical electronic components of vehicles and drones used by enemy combatants (MoD Crown Copyright/PA)

With an estimated cost of 10p per radio wave shot, the technology is also being billed as a cost-effective alternative to traditional missiles, and could be used to take down dangerous drone swarms.

The technology can be mounted on to a variety of military vehicles, and uses a mobile power source to produce pulses of a radio frequency energy in a beam that can fire sequenced shots at a single target or be broadened to hit a series of targets.

Minister for defence procurement James Cartlidge said: “We are already a force to be reckoned with on science and technology, and developments like RFDEW not only make our personnel more lethal and better protected on the battlefield, but also keep the UK a world leader on innovative military kit.

“The war in Ukraine has shown us the importance of deploying uncrewed systems, but we must be able to defend against them too. As we ramp up our defence spending in the coming years, our Defence Drone Strategy will ensure we are at the forefront of this warfighting evolution.”

The new weapons system will undergo extensive testing with British soldiers over the summer.

It is being developed by a joint team from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) and Defence Equipment & Support (DE&S), working with UK industry under Project Hersa.

DSTL chief executive Paul Hollinshead said: “These game-changing systems will deliver decisive operational advantage to the UK armed forces, saving lives and defeating deadly threats.

“World-class capabilities such as this are only possible because of decades of research, expertise and investment in science and technology at DSTL and our partners in UK industry.”

China navy secretly built what could be world's first drone aircraft carrier: report

Thibault Spirlet

BUSINESS INSIDER
Wed, May 15, 2024 


China has secretly built what could be the world's first drone carrier, an analyst said.


The report pointed to the vessel's size to guess at its primary mission.


Having a drone carrier would allow China to use different types of drones to attack, an analyst told BI.

China's navy has secretly built what could be the world's first dedicated drone carrier ship, according to Naval News, a squat ship that looks like a mini-aircraft carrier.

The outlet used satellite imagery dated May 6, along with input from J. Michael Dahm, a senior resident fellow for aerospace and China studies at the Mitchell Institute.

"We are confident that this ship is the world's first dedicated fixed-wing drone carrier," it said. Other experts, however, cautioned that only time would tell its purpose.



The report cited the vessel's flight deck length, which it said is about one-third the length and half the width of a Chinese or US Navy aircraft carrier. It's also roughly half the length of China's amphibious assault ships that launch manned helicopters, suggesting that the new ship's flight deck is designed for fewer helicopters or smaller aircraft like drones.

Warships' flight decks have been bases for drones like the US's MQ-8B Fire Scout helicopter and the lightweight Scan Eagle drone. What appears new is that the Chinese ship's entire function may be to launch and land drones, although its purpose will only be confirmed by future observations of its testing and operations.

The report estimated that the flight deck was wide enough to allow aircraft or drones with a wingspan of roughly 65 feet, like the Chinese equivalents of the Reaper drone, to operate from it.

Citing satellite imagery, the report also said that the flight deck appears to be "very" low, suggesting there's no hangar below for aircraft storage and maintenance like those of assault ships and carriers. As seen, the ship appears to be well under the length of a Chinese frigate.

Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy in East Asia at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, backed up the assessment.

He told BI that the platform's flattop and compact deck, together with the reportedly catamaran-like hull, suggest that it will be used for drones; the US has also experimented with launching drones from catamaran-style ferries, but the ship's flight deck is much smaller.

Patalano also said it would make sense for the Chinese navy to keep its trials largely hidden from international scrutiny.

But Lyle Goldstein, Director of Asia Engagement at the DC-based think tank Defense Priorities, said he would hesitate to call it a drone carrier based on just one satellite image.

Strategically, however, he said it would make a lot of sense.

Drones have a relatively small range, limiting their deployment away from the coastline, Goldstein told BI, so having a carrier would give the Chinese navy a "robust" network and allow drones of different types to attack.

"I spend a lot of time looking at Taiwan scenarios, and I think China would be looking to really deploy huge amounts of these exploding drones as its main weapon," he said.

The possible drone mothership was spotted only weeks after China's third carrier started sea trials.

Russia can't seem to stop this Ukrainian Cessna-style drone that, compared to missiles, is basically a 'flying brick' with a bomb onboard

Jake Epstein

Business Insider
Wed, May 15, 2024


Ukraine has increasingly attacked Russian military and energy facilities with long-range drones.


One weapon Ukraine has turned to is essentially a small sport aircraft packed with explosives.


Kyiv has recently relied on this Cessna-like drone to carry out at least two successful strikes.

Ukraine has in recent weeks relied on an unusual weapon to conduct strikes deep inside Russian territory: a small unmanned aircraft packed with explosives that resembles some variants of the propeller-driven Cessna aircraft.

The light, fixed-wing planes observed in attacks this spring travel at low altitudes and move significantly slower than a long-range missile might, yet they have proven capable of evading Moscow's air-defense systems and traveling unscathed for hundreds of miles to reach their targets deep in enemy territory.

Experts say these aircraft underscore the success of Ukraine's innovative long-range drone program, which Kyiv has employed to go after Russia's military and energy facilities.

In early April, Kyiv used a modified Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat to attack a drone-making factory in the Republic of Tatarstan in Russia. The small, ultralight sport aircraft was developed and is manufactured in Ukraine and costs less than $90,000 per unit.

The plane can also travel at speeds up to 130 mph (much slower than a cruise missile, which can fly at speeds in excess of 500 mph, or a ballistic missile, which is significantly faster) and be configured with explosives inside the cabin.

Ukraine reportedly attempted additional strikes with drones like this later in the month, though it is unclear how successful these actually were. Last week, an aircraft that looks similar to the A-22 was spotted in an attack on an oil refinery in the Republic of Bashkortostan, even deeper inside Russia. Multiple open-source intelligence shared footage of the plane soaring unopposed over the facility.



Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo and security expert, previously wrote that "in the world of missile systems" the aircraft is "basically a flying brick."

But while the aircraft may appear crudely put together, it's still a "rather complex weapon system" because the existing airframe and engine still need to be combined with explosives and guidance technology, he later told Business Insider in an interview.

The aircraft seems to operate at a relatively low altitude, as seen in the footage, making it more difficult for radar to track. And if Ukraine can find a corridor that lacks proper air-defense coverage, then the drone can effectively penetrate right through Russian territory, Hoffmann said. Additionally, given its design, the aircraft could also be mistaken for a civilian plane rather than a threat.

That doesn't really excuse Russia's apparent failure to engage them though. In the Tatarstan and Bashkortostan attacks, the aircraft managed to fly for several hours, hundreds of miles into Russian territory without getting shot down by Russia's formidable air-defense systems, which have been a headache for Ukrainian forces on the battlefield.

These drones are loud and slow, rendering themselves vulnerable to visual confirmation along the way, even if a radar doesn't pick them up. Hoffmann said these aircraft should be relatively easy to pick off or defend against by placing air defenses like anti-aircraft guns around critical infrastructure.

Ultimately, he said, that these systems are slipping through suggests that Russia has a capacity issue — with assets tied up either defending the battlefield or key population centers like Moscow and St. Petersburg — and may also be underestimating the Ukrainian threat.

"Once you have countermeasures in place, it should be really easy to shoot this thing down," Hoffmann said. "And the problem is they don't appear to have that."

But establishing adequate countermeasures to consistently and effectively defend against low-altitude, slow-moving threats can be a challenge, and not just for Russia, explained Gordon Davis Jr., a retired US Army major general.

"That's a vulnerability at the moment that the Ukrainians are exploiting to their advantage," Davis, a non-resident senior fellow with the transatlantic defense and security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said at an event on drone warfare this week.

Notably, the Cessna-style drone underscores the success of Ukraine's ever-evolving drone program. Since the war began more than two years ago, Kyiv has developed a robust arsenal of homemade, unmanned systems that are capable of long-range strikes on Russian targets in the sea and on the ground.



These unique weapons have proven to be an invaluable component of Ukraine's war efforts, especially in recent months as the country continues to face some restrictions by Western countries on how to use their military assistance.

The US, for example, has said that it does not want Kyiv to use American-made weaponry to conduct strikes on Russia's sovereign territory, fearing that it could escalate the war. Instead, Washington wants its long-range munitions to be limited to use in Russian-occupied territory of Ukraine. This has so far been the case.

"They're leveraging their domestic capabilities to good advantage, and to strike key infrastructure within Russia," Davis said.

Lance Landrum, a retired US Air Force lieutenant general and another non-resident senior fellow with CEPA's transatlantic defense and security program, hailed the Cessna-style drones as just one example of Ukraine's "innovation and creativity."

"That's one thing about these drones of all different sizes — the small, medium, and large — they can exploit gaps and seams in traditional air-defense systems in ways that traditional offensive systems haven't in the past," Landrum said at the CEPA event.

Opinion

The US and Royal Navies have lost the ability to introduce new ships

Tom Sharpe
Wed, May 15, 2024 




The Royal Navy and the US Navy can fairly be described as the leading maritime forces of the Western world – though realistically, of course, the USN is in a class by itself.

Both services can deploy fifth-generation fighters from aircraft carriers. Both can launch Tomahawk cruise missiles at targets a thousand miles away. Both have now proven that they can shoot down incoming ballistic missiles, in historic engagements against the Iran-backed Houthis of Yemen. Though the USN is far bigger, both navies can do the rest of the top-tier missions: nuclear submarine deterrence, attack, and covert ops; effective anti-submarine warfare (an area in which the Royal Navy is sometimes, for once, a little ahead); and amphibious assault. Or anyway the USN can do amphibious assault and the Royal Navy – actually the Royal Fleet Auxiliary – will be able to soon.

But both services have their problems, in particular with introducing new ships.

Here in Britain, the problems are obscured because planned shipbuilding numbers are good. The new Dreadnought class deterrent submarines are in train as are the last of the Astute class attack submarines. The collaboration with the US and Australia for the next generation of attack submarines remains sound, although that is a long way away and many hurdles remain. The Type 26 and 31 Frigates are (finally) progressing nicely and the news that they will both have Mark 41 vertical launchers, able to carry effective American missiles of all kinds, is welcome.

The fact that, to my mind, takes a little bit of the gold leaf off ‘the golden age of shipbuilding’ here in the UK is the number of ships that are being asked to run on beyond their programmed lifespan because these projects all started too late. Resource constraints make getting programs across the line so difficult that we are now seemingly incapable of starting a complex build programme in time for it to be finished as the previous class pays off. Delays in build due to politics, shipyard capacity issues and design tinkering all compound this. Capability gaps are now the norm, sometimes huge ones.

The venerable Type 23 frigates typify this. They were built in the 1990s and Noughties and were designed to run reasonably low-intensity towed array patrols in the North Atlantic with a life span of 18 to 20 years. Even the very newest (and best) one, my old command HMS St Albans – just coming out of an extended maintenance period – is already 24 years old. They will all be in their late 30s by the time the T26s are ready to relieve them.

Running ships on past their designed life like this creates two problems. First is the cost of keeping them mechanically sound and safe to operate. The refits cost more than it cost to build them. Second, you are forced to throw money at what in technological terms is now an ‘old ship’. The latest advancements in weapons, sensors, AI, communications and satellite networks – all the things we are working so hard to develop to retain a technological edge – become increasingly incompatible with the ageing platforms.

The USN's futuristic Zumwalt class destroyer has not been a success. Only three will ever join the fleet - US Navy/Getty

Older ships also use more people, the reason I am confident we won’t see our two Royal Navy amphibious assault ships on operations anytime soon, despite the announcement that they will not be paid off early.

It’s doubly frustrating that we are in the middle of making the same mistake again with the replacement for the Type 45 destroyers. HMS Daring, first of class, was launched in 2006 and should therefore be expecting to retire in 2036 at the latest. If the Type 45 replacement is to be ready in time, designs need to be mature now and contracts awarded straight away.

To give an idea, steel was first cut on the Type 26 Frigate in July 2017 but that ship won’t reach initial operating capability until October 2028. But that was on the back of a further seven years of contract discussions and awards, i.e. it took 18 years from ‘concept’ to ‘operational’.

Meanwhile, over in the US, the Zumwalt class was a case study of what happens if you try to pack too much new and untested technology into one hull. The initial plan was to build 32 but as the costs skyrocketed, this reduced to 24, then to seven. The USN has ended up with three. A related case was the Seawolf submarines, which are powerful but horrendously costly. Again, the USN only got three, though in this case the more reasonably priced Virginia class successor project has been a great success.

With surface ships the USN did not recover as well – if at all. The Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) is perhaps the exemplar of a programme that started with a confused concept of operations, was rushed into production, and got worse from there. It took about 12 years from launch before they were universally being referred to as ‘little crappy ships’. Needless to say, the US Navy hasn’t let the almost unarmed LCSs anywhere near the current littoral combat theatre in the Southern Red Sea.

And now the Constellation class frigate, the US answer to our Type 26, is also in a bit of a mess. On this occasion, the USN took the excellent and proven Fregata Europea Multi-Missione (FREMM) design and rather than modifying 15 per cent of it for US purposes as initially stated, modified 85 per cent. It’s basically a new ship. A combination of this meddling and workforce shortfalls in the yard where it is being built have caused delays and a price hike.

So ‘too expensive’, ‘unreliable’ and ‘fiddled with too much’ in sequential order. It’s almost as though the USN can’t build new surface combatant warships at all any more. Fortunately, in the long running Arleigh Burke destroyer programme, the US not only produced one of the best warships ever at the start, it is also one of the most modifiable. The latest ones, still coming off the line, physically resemble their forebears of 33 years ago but that’s about it: and the old ones still in service have been upgraded in line with the new ones.

Arleigh Burke class. When you get something right, keep doing it - MC3 Lasheba James/US Navy/AFP/Getty

Here in Britain our replacement air defence destroyer, the Type 83, will need to avoid all these traps. It will need to be advanced (but not too much), have what is meant to be inked in from the start and then not be tinkered with during build.

That’s not going to be easy, however. The things an air defence destroyer needs to be able to do are expanding and shifting at pace. The Future Air Dominance System (FADS) is the collective term for this and whilst accelerating fast, the concept is still in its infancy.

Whatever FADS ends up being, it will need to be advanced but not too expensive. It must be survivable and not have too many people onboard. It must carry lots of (reloadable at sea) missiles but not be too big and expensive. It will need to counter swarm attacks by cheap and simple drones or missiles (the forthcoming Dragonfire laser should be useful here). It will also need to shoot down ballistic missiles in space, supersonic or hypersonic missiles from the upper atmosphere to sea level, and defend against surface attack (also drones). It should be able to knock down targets below the horizon which are being tracked by something else such as an airborne radar aircraft.

The Red Sea has confirmed beyond doubt that warships need to be able to strike targets ashore – add this to the list, though most navies apart from the Royal Navy had already done so. The Type 83s will need to be able to conduct disaggregated operations thousands of miles from other ships but also in a task group next to the carrier (this is a key requirement).

These are complex and sometimes conflicting requirements to the point where some FADS concepts dispense with the idea of a large ship at all, relying instead on a fleet of smaller arsenal and uncrewed ships. This could work in wartime, and might even save money (never far away in the conversation) but solutions like this often overlook the 99 per cent of the time when a warship’s job is to prevent the war in the first place.

So, to my mind, peacetime operations, deterrence work, radar physics and probably a pinch of traditionalism means that FADS will still have a destroyer-looking ship at its core with the option to add remotely operated or heavily armed options down the line. It won’t be a vast cruiser (see Zumwalt) or small and under-armed (see the LCS).

But FADS needs to mature now because the equation is simple: no destroyers = no carriers = no conventional deterrent in far too much of the world. And if they’re not ready in time, we know from the Type 23s what it costs to run ships beyond their expected life and given the complexities (and difficulties) of the Type 45 power train, it will be worse if we have to do it again.

So I would question the notion that we are in a golden age of shipbuilding here in the UK. If we have entered a golden anything it should be the age of budget holders finally recognising how tight things have become in the Royal Navy, how this could compromise the defence of the nation in the face of increasing threats and the demands this continually places on the service’s excellent people.

In the States the problems are less ones of lacking money and vision – the US has long had clear ideas on a powerful navy and has provided ample funds. Problems in America are ones of execution, with at least three major ship classes failing to reach service in any numbers over the last three decades – leaving the USN, like the RN, with a lot of the same ships it had 30 years ago.

The good news is that in both nations the desire is there to meet the threats of the future. The two navies now just need to be given the resources and freedom to deliver. In the specific case of the Type 83 destroyer, that time for decisive action is now.

Tom Sharpe is a former Royal Navy officer and surface combatant captain