Another pulse crop option for growers?
Lupins offer high protein and resistance to aphanomyces root rot

By Treena Hein
Published: November 26, 2021

Seed multiplication will continue in 2022, with a goal of crop commercialization in 2023. 

Photo: Lupin Platform

Move over soybeans, canola and yellow peas — another high-value crop is in development in Canada to meet the demands of the rapidly evolving plant-based food product market — lupin. It may also represent a strong option for the local and export livestock feed markets.

Grown in ancient times for both food and feed, today lupin is almost all grown for livestock feed, mostly in Australia. Only four per cent of the global 2020 crop was consumed by humans. But recently, in Canada and beyond, lupin flour (made from the high-protein seeds) has begun to be included in baked goods and snacks. Loblaw’s President’s Choice brand has offered a lupin-wheat pancake mix, and in late August 2021, Nabati Foods Global of Edmonton launched a plant-based liquid “egg” product that contains lupin and pea protein. “Nabati Plant Eggz” will soon be available at Sobeys in Quebec and Whole Foods across B.C. and Ontario.

Even if market demand is not yet strong in Canada, lupin’s future looks rosy. It’s a nitrogen-fixing pulse crop that produces comparable yields to peas, with a protein content of 35 to 40 per cent compared to an average of 24 per cent for peas, says Tristan Choi, director of Lupin Platform, an Alberta-based lupin development firm. In addition, the company’s two varieties (bred in Europe) are resistant to aphanomyces root rot, which can reduce yield in some other pulse crops. Lupin Platform has registered a white lupin (Lupinus albus) called Dieta, and a blue (L. angustifolius, also known as narrow-leaved lupin) called Boregine.

The Lupin Platform team plans to market both varieties for food and feed, but each has a focus related to market access. Dieta production will be focused in Manitoba due to its longer growing season and proximity to initial industry customers in Canada and the U.S. Boregine, which has undergone trials involving Alberta Agriculture for most of the last decade, is well-adapted to various areas of Alberta. However, the Parkland areas will be the focus in order to keep transport costs low to the main market livestock feed in Asia.

Crop requirements

Gordon Butcher, CEO Of AgCall, a firm contracted by Lupin Platform to assist with research and commercialization, says a soil pH at or below 7.2 is needed for their blue lupin and less than 7.8 for their white. This is based on information provided by the breeders in Europe.

“Soil pH is considered a default indicator for soil calcium level, with calcium being higher the higher the soil pH. High soil calcium levels negatively affect nodule formation and if high enough, will cause iron deficiency in lupin. And high iron levels in the soil will not compensate or prevent this deficiency.”

A 10-per cent higher protein content may make the lupin price competitive with peas. photo: Lupin Platform

Dieta should be planted the last week of April up to the end of the first week in May and needs about 125 days to maturity, similar to soybean. Boregine’s planting window is similar to Dieta but it matures in 110 to 115 days. Nitrogen requirement is low when the proper inoculant is applied to the seed. A liquid inoculant is now registered because the equipment of Prairie growers is set up for liquid and because it provides improved seed coverage over powder.

Regarding weed control, Butcher says “Registered broadleaf herbicides are still an issue but research is underway and will continue next year. We hope to have a number of new options of registered products when large-scale commercial production gets underway in 2023. With respect to crop insurance, we’re working with insurance companies, but it will take a couple of years of commercial production for crop insurance to move forward.”

Butcher adds that “We know we need to be competitive with peas in order for farmers to be interested. Because lupins have about 10 per cent higher protein than peas, we expect the price to be higher than peas when we get commercial production.”

Outlook for 2022

Butcher says that due to the severe drought in Manitoba this year, Lupin Platform’s seed multiplication has been low and hopefully will increase in 2022.

Next year, a few commercial farmers in Manitoba will also grow a limited acreage of 20 to 40 acres each. Due to the drought, there will not be any certified seed for Alberta growers in 2022.

This year in Manitoba, Red River Seeds and JS Henry and Son Ltd. are multiplying Dieta, and in Alberta, Galloway Seeds, Lindholm Seed Farm and Brian Ellis Seed are doing the same for Boregine.

Lupin Platform is also partnering with Hensall Co-op and two farmers in Ontario to investigate agronomic/economic fit for Dieta.

Grown in ancient times for both food and feed, lupin today is grown almost entirely for livestock feed, and mostly in Australia. photo: Lupin Platform

Although 2021 has been challenging, Choi, Butcher and their colleagues say they are excited about continued development of the value chain from variety development and seed and grain production to the development of value-added processing technologies and end-use markets. “We want Canada to be the supplier of choice for the highest-quality lupin available worldwide,” says Choi.

For more information visit lupinplatform.com.

A grower’s experience

Dane Lindholm of Lindholm Seed in New Norway, Alta., grew 88 acres of Boregine for Lupin Platform this year.

It was the first year for lupins on the farm, and the area had below-average rainfall and extreme heat in the early part of the growing season. The seed was treated with Vibrance Maxx and powdered inoculant (which is being replaced by liquid). Lindholm says there was quick emergence, and “You want to have it in early. We planted April 27. And you don’t want to seed too deep.”

For harvest, Lindholm says the best desiccation timing needs to be worked out so that the stalk and pods are ready at the same time.

“Overall, we were happy with how the plants looked, and there’s definitely a fit for them here,” Lindholm sums up.“Lupins are going to work ... harvest stability is the main issue at this point in my view.”

The forgotten oil ads that told us climate change was nothing

Since the 1980s, fossil fuel firms have run ads touting climate denial messages – many of which they’d now like us to forget. Here’s our visual guide

Illustration: Guardian Design
Climate crimes

by Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes

Supported by

Thu 18 Nov 2021

Why is meaningful action to avert the climate crisis proving so difficult? It is, at least in part, because of ads.

The fossil fuel industry has perpetrated a multi-decade, multibillion dollar disinformation, propaganda and lobbying campaign to delay climate action by confusing the public and policymakers about the climate crisis and its solutions. This has involved a remarkable array of advertisements – with headlines ranging from “Lies they tell our children” to “Oil pumps life” – seeking to convince the public that the climate crisis is not real, not human-made, not serious and not solvable. The campaign continues to this day.

As recently as last month, six big oil CEOs were summoned to US Congress to answer for the industry’s history of discrediting climate science – yet they lied under oath about it. In other words, the fossil fuel industry is now misleading the public about its history of misleading the public.

We are experts in the history of climate disinformation, and we want to set the record straight. So here, in black and white (and color), is a selection of big oil’s thousands of deceptive climate ads from 1984 to 2021. This isn’t an exhaustive analysis, of which we have published several, but a brief, illustrated history – like the “sizzle reels” that creatives use to highlight their best work – of the 30-plus year evolution of fossil fuel industry propaganda. This is big oil’s PR sizzle reel.
Early days: learning to spin

Humble Oil (now ExxonMobil) was not self-conscious about the potential environmental impacts of its products in this 1962 advertisement touting “Each day Humble supplies enough energy to melt 7 million tons of glacier!”

Life Magazine, 1962
Advertisement


The truth behind the ad: Three years earlier, in 1959, America’s oil bosses had been warned that burning fossil fuels could lead to global heating “sufficient to melt the icecap and submerge New York”.

Their knowledge only grew. A 1979 internal Exxon study warned of “dramatic environmental effects” before 2050. “By the late 1970s”, a former Exxon scientist recently recalled, “global warming was no longer speculative”.’
‘Reposition global warming as theory (not fact)’

In 1991, Informed Citizens for the Environment, a front group of coal and utility companies announced that “Doomsday is cancelled” and asked, “Who told you the earth was warming … Chicken Little?” They complained about “weak” evidence, “non-existent” proof, inaccurate climate models and asserted that the physics was “open to debate”.




Both ads from the Informed Citizens for the Environment, 1991

The truth behind the ads: Instead of warning the public about global heating or taking action, fossil fuel companies stayed silent as long as they could. In the late 1980s, however, the world woke up to the climate crisis, marking what Exxon called a “critical event”. The fossil fuel industry’s PR apparatus swung into action, implementing a strategy straight out of big tobacco’s playbook: to weaponize science against itself.
Advertisement


A 1991 memo by Informed Citizens for the Environment made that strategy explicit: “Reposition global warming as theory (not fact).”
‘Emphasize the uncertainty’

Mobil and ExxonMobil ran one of the most comprehensive climate denial campaigns of all time, with a foray in the 1980s, a blitz in the 1990s and continued messaging through the late 2000s. Their climate “advertorials” – advertisements disguised as editorials – appeared in the op-ed page of the New York Times and other newspapers and were part of what scholars have called “the longest, regular (weekly) use of media to influence public and elite opinion in contemporary America”.

Left: New York Times, 1984. Right: New York Times, 1993

Between 1996 and 1998, for instance, Mobil ran 12 advertorials timed with the 1997 UN Kyoto negotiations that questioned whether the climate crisis is real and human-made and 10 that downplayed its seriousness. “Reset the alarm,” one ad suggested. “Let’s not rush to a decision at Kyoto … We still don’t know what role man-made greenhouse gases might play in warming the planet.”

Left: New York Times, 1997. 

Right: New York Times, Wall Street Journal and other publications, 2000

The truth behind the ads: “Exxon’s position”, instructed internal strategy memos from 1988-89, was to “extend the science” and “emphasize the uncertainty in scientific conclusions” about the climate crisis. Or as a 1998 “Action Plan” by Exxon, Chevron, API, utilities companies and others declared: “Victory will be achieved when average citizens” and the “media ‘understands’ (recognizes) uncertainties in climate science”.

ExxonMobil continued to fund climate denial through at least 2018. One of their 2004 advertorials claimed “scientific uncertainties” precluded “determinations regarding the human role in recent climate change”. That was untrue. Nine years earlier, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had concluded a “discernible human influence on global climate”. ExxonMobil’s chief climate scientist was a contributing author to the report.
Economic scaremongering

“Don’t risk our economic future,” implored the Global Climate Coalition, a front group for utility, oil, coal, mining, railroad and car companies. This 1997 ad also targeted the Kyoto negotiations and was part of a $13m campaign that was so successful that the White House told GCC: President Bush “rejected Kyoto, in part, based on input from you”.

Global Climate Coalition, 1997
Advertisement


The truth behind the ad: Put “emphasis on costs/political realities”, instructed a 1989 Exxon strategy memo. Just as the fossil fuel industry funded contrarian scientists to deny climate science, it also touted the flawed economic analyses of industry-funded economists.

The best predictors of fossil fuel industry ad spending are media scrutiny and political activity. Today, economic scaremongering has gone digital, with huge spikes in television and social media ad spending by oil lobbies each time climate regulations loom. In the runup to the 2018-20 US midterm and presidential elections, ExxonMobil spent more on political advertising on Facebook and Instagram than any other company in the world (except Facebook itself).
It’s not our fault, it’s yours

From 2004 to 2006, a $100m-plus a year BP marketing campaign “introduced the idea of a ‘carbon footprint’ before it was a common buzzword”, according to the PR agent in charge of the campaign. The targets of this campaign were the “routine human activities” and “lifestyle choices” of “individuals” and the “average American household”. In 2019, BP ran a new “Know your carbon footprint” campaign on social media.




Both ads were published in various publications from 2004 to 2006.
Advertisement

The truth behind the ads: Big oil’s rhetoric has evolved from outright denial to more subtle forms of propaganda, including shifting responsibility away from companies and on to consumers. This mimics big tobacco’s effort to combat criticism and defend against litigation and regulation by “casting itself as a kind of neutral innocent, buffeted by the forces of consumer demand”.
Greenwashing: talk clean, act dirty

“We’re partnering with major universities to develop the next generation of biofuels,” said Chevron in 2007. This is also a top talking point of BP, ExxonMobil and others.

The New Yorker, 2007
Advertisement


ExxonMobil has been trumpeting its research into algae biofuels for more than a decade – from black-and-white print ads (2009) to digital commercials (2018-21).



New York Times, 2009


New York Times, 2018

The truth behind the ads: Greenwashing confers companies with an aura of environmental credibility while distracting from their anti-science, anti-clean energy disinformation, lobbying and investments. The goal is to defend what BP calls a company’s “social license to operate”.

One way fossil fuel companies give themselves a green sheen is to establish – then boast about – what a 1998 API strategy memo termed “cooperative relationships” with reputable academic institutions. Big oil’s colonization of academia is pervasive. Shell’s ongoing sponsorship of the London Science Museum’s climate exhibition comes with a gagging clause prohibiting the museum from discrediting the company’s reputation.

As for algae: America’s five largest oil and gas companies spent $3.6bn on corporate reputation advertising between 1986 and 2015. ExxonMobil has spent more on advertising than on algae research.
‘We’re part of the solution!’

BP “developed an ‘all of the above’ strategy” for marketing energy from 2006 to 2008, “before any presidential candidates spoke of the same”, according to BP’s PR lead.

Big oil continues to promote this narrative of “fossil fuel solution-ism’, including its “all of the above” language, on social media, in Congress and in paid-for, pretend editorials in the Washington Post. To make this spin stick, fossil fuel companies have been calling methane “clean” since at least the 1980s. “Natural gas is already clean,” said API Facebook ads and billboards last year.

One of BP’s many ‘all of the above’ ads grouping oil and natural gas with renewable sources


American Petroleum Institute native advertising in the Washington Post, 2021
Advertisement


The truth behind the ads: In contradiction to the science of stopping global heating, big oil asserts that fossil fuels will be essential for the foreseeable future. The “all of the above” energy mantra was – as BP’s advertising creative put it – “co-opted by politicians in 2008” and became a centerpiece of the Obama administration’s energy policies. The campaign also positioned methane as a “clean bridge” fuel.

Like “clean coal”, calling methane “clean”, “cleanest” or “low-carbon” has been deemed false advertising by regulators.

Distorting reality in the 2020s and beyond

A Shell TV ad last year featured birds in the sky, fields of wind and solar farms, the CEO of a Shell renewables subsidiary saying she’s “made the future far cleaner and far better for our children”, and not one reference to fossil fuels.

The truth behind the ad: Between 2010 and 2018, 98.7% of Shell’s investments were in oil and gas. Such misrepresentations are industry-wide.

Today, we’re all inundated with ads that leverage a combination of narratives, including those illustrated above, to present fossil fuel companies as climate saviors. It’s way past time we called their bluff.

The narratives highlighted here are a selection of “discourses of climate denial and delay” previously identified by the authors and other researchers. The advertisements selected to illustrate these discourses were identified by the authors based on a review of dozens of peer-reviewed studies, journalistic investigations, white papers, ad libraries, newspaper archives, social media reports and lawsuits.

Australia’s spy agency predicted the climate crisis 40 years ago – and fretted about coal exports

A composite image showing former Australian PM Malcolm Fraser and pioneering scientist 

Graeme Pearman Composite: Getty/Supplied


In a taste of things to come, a secret Office of National Assessment report worried the ‘carbon dioxide problem’ would hurt the nation’s coal industry


Graham Readfearn
THE GUARDIAN
Sat 27 Nov 2021 
The report was stamped CONFIDENTIAL twice on each page, with the customary warning it should “not be released to any other government except Britain, Canada, NZ and US”.

About 40 years ago this week, the spooks at Australia’s intelligence agency, the Office of National Assessments (ONA), delivered the 17-page report to prime minister Malcolm Fraser.

The subject? “Fossil Fuels and the Greenhouse Effect”.

Michael Cook, the agency’s director general, wrote in an introduction how his team had looked at the implications of rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere “with special reference to Australia as a producer and exporter of coal”.

Cook wrote: “Scientists now agree that if such emissions continue it will some time in the next century lead to a discernible ‘greenhouse effect’ whereby the Earth’s atmosphere becomes measurably warmer with related climatic changes.”

Graeme Pearman, a former CSIRO scientist who was doing work to measure CO2 in the early 1970s. Photograph: Supplied

The agency had several warnings for the Fraser government, but central to the concerns was the potential for the country’s coal exports to be affected.

Those concerns from high levels of government show that from the beginning, the country was seeing the climate change issue through the prism of its fossil fuels.

There were “potentially adverse implications” for the “security of Australia’s export markets for coal beyond the end of the century”.


'What could I have done?' The scientist who predicted the bushfire emergency four decades ago

About 16 years after the ONA report, the Howard government signed the Kyoto protocol to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

John Howard, who was treasurer when the ONA report was released, later refused to ratify that Kyoto deal, saying it would damage the country’s industries, including coal.

ONA was predicting in 1981 that tensions were likely. Sooner or later the “carbon dioxide problem” would “arouse public concerns and so engage the attention of governments”.
Advertisement

If there wasn’t cost-effective technology “to reduce the carbon dioxide problem” by the end of that century, then concerns could “culminate in pressure for action to restrict fossil fuel usage”.

There was no “anti-fossil fuel lobby” yet that could be compared to “anti-nuclear groups” but some environmental organisations were starting to express concern.

Public attention was only going to increase as more scientific results were published “and are sensationalised by the press and others”.

But in a concluding sentence that could be commenting on the Morrison government’s current defence of fossil fuels from a distance of four decades, the report says: “Australia could well find its export market particularly vulnerable to international policies aimed at limiting the use of coal.”

Dr Robert Glasser, head of the climate and security policy centre at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said: “It’s the job of intelligence agencies to anticipate these long-term threats and then alert the government.

“In that respect, they were doing their job.”

Former Australian prime minister John Howard refused to ratify the Kyoto deal. Photograph: Mark Baker/REUTERS

The existence of the ONA report – sent to Fraser on 25 November 1981 – is still not widely known.

Scientists working on the issue at the time said they had never seen it until the Guardian sent them a copy. Australia’s longest-serving science minister, Barry Jones, who took up his ministerial role in 1983, also said he had no recall of it.

Glasser says those who have followed the science over decades might not be surprised that Australia’s intelligence was exercised by climate change 40 years ago.

“The science has been clear in terms of a general direction ever since the 1970s – a decade before this report. But we now know the impacts.”

But he says despite the country’s intelligence agency first engaging with the issue 40 years ago, Australia is still “way behind” on the security risks being posed by climate change.

“We are failing to assess the climate and security risks generally, not just in Australia where we can see these simultaneous record-setting compounding events, but even in the region it’s a major security issue.”

Download original document

One of the first people outside government to see the document was likely Prof Clive Hamilton, who says he was handed it by a “senior public servant” while he was researching his 2007 book Scorcher on the “dirty politics of climate change”.

“The document was amazingly prescient and remains accurate in its essentials,” said Hamilton

“It was one of those extraordinary things a researcher occasionally stumbles upon. Almost no one seemed aware of the report. It was just gathering dust on a shelf somewhere.”

As well as forecasting problems for the country’s coal industry, the ONA report included qualified forecasts of the potential impacts on the climate.

The area where cyclones could hit could extend as the tropics expand. Sea levels could rise, plants might grow quicker and the polar regions would warm much faster.

There would be global winners and losers, the report said. Canada’s wheat-growing belt could grow, gaining area from the USA as the climate shifted. A loss of permafrost in the USSR and Canada could deliver more agricultural land (permafrost is now melting, with concerns about the release of large amounts of greenhouse gases that could further raise temperatures).

If CO2 levels doubled in the atmosphere, then the ONA thought this could cause between 2C and 3C of warming. That estimate – from 40 years ago – is within the range of the UN’s latest assessment.
Emerging science

But the science and the concerns among Australia’s top scientists had been building well before the ONA report dropped on Fraser’s desk.

Some of the data in the report was drawn from the work of Dr Graeme Pearman and colleagues at CSIRO. Pearman is a pioneering climate scientist who started working on the issue in the early 70s and remembers speaking to ONA staff at the time.

‘I knew they were aware of the issues’: Graeme Pearman in Melbourne last week. Photograph: Darrian Traynor


“I knew they were aware of the issues but I didn’t know how they would play that game,” says Pearman, who is now aged 80 but who saw the report for the first time this week.

“The report does reflect pretty well the state of our scientific understanding at that time. Where it perhaps falls down is that there seems to be no real attempt to evaluate the risks associated with what may unfold.”

The CSIRO had started measuring CO2 levels in the air using instruments in a wheat field in Rutherglen, Victoria, in 1971.

The following year, Pearman and colleagues had put air-sampling equipment on planes – some commercial and some government-owned. More than 3,500 samples were taken.

Pearman was curious about CO2 measurements that had been taken continually since 1958 in Hawaii by pioneering climate scientist Charles David Keeling, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California.

To Pearman’s amazement, the amounts of CO2 in the air above the wheat field and from the aircraft instruments were almost identical to Keeling’s findings from Hawaii

In 1974, Pearman took the Australian air samples in six steel flasks across the world, visiting Keeling’s laboratory in California as well as other scientists doing CO2 measurements in Sweden, Canada, American Samoa and New Zealand.

In 1976, the Australian Academy of Science published a Report of a Committee on Climatic Change that mostly dealt with natural variations in the climate.

But that report included a chapter on “man’s impact on climate”. All past climate changes had been due to natural events “on an astronomic or global scale,” the report said. But then came this sentence: “Human activities are now developing in ways that could have an appreciable effect on the climate within decades.”

Graeme Pearman with a book about climate change that he edited in 1988. 

Photograph: Darrian Traynor
Advertisement

Four years later, and one year before the ONA report, Pearman edited a book – Carbon Dioxide and Climate: Australian Research that summarised the work going on in Australia. How were the levels of CO2 changing? What could this mean for rainfall? How would plants respond?

“The potential significance of a CO2-induced climatic change is large,” wrote Pearman, but so too were the uncertainties. A lot more work needed to be done.

Pretty ordinary or prescient?

“It is fascinating and remarkable to read how this was being viewed [by the intelligence agency] only 10 years after we started our CO2 and climate work at CSIRO,” says Pearman.

Australia’s longest-serving science minister from 1983 to 1990, Barry Jones, could not recall ever seeing the ONA report, but he wasn’t particularly impressed.


Australia was ready to act on climate 25 years ago, so what happened next?

“I think it’s pretty ordinary,” says Jones, whose latest book is called What Is to be Done: Political Engagement and Saving the Planet.

“They imposed on themselves a very narrow terms of reference,” he said, and was puzzled why the report mentions other greenhouse gases but ignored methane.

Prof Ian Lowe was lecturing students on the future of energy supply at Griffith University in the early 1980s. He also hadn’t seen the ONA report before.

A Queensland coal-fired power station during construction, circa 1980. Australia has been worried about climate change’s implications for fossil fuels for decades. Photograph: Peter Righteous/Alamy

“It’s stamped confidential top to bottom. I was surprised how accurate it was though,” he said.

“The spy agency thought it was important enough to draw it to the attention of our political leadership largely because of what they saw as the commerce implications for the Australian export markets for coal.

“But what’s politically interesting is there was absolutely no response to this warning, even though the expansion of fossil fuels was tragically compromised.”

Author and academic Dr Jeremy Walker, of UTS in Sydney, is researching the history of climate science and energy policy. He’s been reviewing the ONA report as part of a wider project.

“What’s interesting to me is that this was being considered at the highest levels of government, but the security issue is being interpreted in terms of the profitability of the fossil fuel industry. The fossil fuel industry is central to the government’s response – then and now.”

Magnus Carlsen embraces chaos in gripping draw with Ian Nepomniachtchi

Carlsen admits that a blunder almost cost him the game

Draw leaves the 14-game match between the pair level at 1-1


Magnus Carlsen (left) had one particularly dicey moment against Ian Nepomniachtchi, but rode it out. Photograph: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images

Sean Ingle at the Dubai Exhibition Centre
@seaningle
Sat 27 Nov 2021

Magnus Carlsen diced with danger in an entertaining second game of the world chess championships in Dubai before recovering to secure a 58-move draw. It leaves his 14-game match with Ian Nepomniachtchi level at 1-1 going into Sunday’s third encounter.

It was a seesawing struggle, with Carlsen surprising his opponent early before missing a move that left him considerably worse off. However, his Russian opponent failed to find his wave through the thicket of variations and the game ended with a handshake, and a long post-mortem, as the players tried to fathom what happened. “The game was crazy, I had no idea what was going on,” said Nepomniachtchi. “During the game I thought: ‘We both are playing not so well’. But now I start thinking it was just very interesting and very chaotic.”

Carlsen and Nepomniachtchi draw in Game 2 of World Chess Championship – as it happened

Carlsen, who has held the world title since 2013, signalled his fighting intentions by playing the rare move, Ne5, on move eight. It sacrificed a pawn but also meant his opponent was on new ground in a tricky position. Understandably, he was soon behind on the clock. Not only was he playing the Norwegian but also his computer preparation.

“It was a really nice idea, not the most popular, and I had a lot of trouble,” admitted Nepomniachtchi. However, he was able to weave his way through the complications without too much damage and, when Carlsen made a mistake with 20. Rb1, he was left staring at a worse position where he was rook for bishop down.

“At some point I blundered because I didn’t intend to sacrifice quite as much material as I actually did,” admitted Carlsen, who looked visibly the more tired. “After that, I was trying to hang in there, not to lose. The position was very, very interesting.”

But with Carlsen on the ropes, Nepo then gave up a pawn for little compensation and the position became a theoretical draw. “The games have been a bit atypical for both of us,” added the Norwegian. “They are not following any specific pattern. It’s just a fight.”

Nepomniachtchi carefully considers a move.

 Photograph: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images

The result means there have now been 16 draws in a row in world championship games played at classical time controls, dating back five years to game 11 of Carlsen’s match against Sergey Karjakin in November 2016.

That is partly down to the time controls, which currently give players two hours for their first 40 moves and another hour for their next 20. Carlsen has long lobbied for shorter games in his world title matches, arguing that with less time to think there will be even more drama. But for now, at least, the Fide president, Arkady Dvorkovich, is sitting on the fence.

“It’s an interesting dilemma,” he told the Observer. “We started experimenting with shorter controls of 45 minutes at the women’s world team championship and it was very dynamic and exciting. But when it comes to controls for classical chess, we will see.

“On the one hand, it’s exciting to watch shorter games,” he added. “On the other hand when talking about the best players, I would prefer just a few mistakes – while in shorter games you have many.”

A Chess Player Almost Won A Chess Game

By Oliver Roeder
Filed under Chess

NOV. 27, 2021

On the eighth move, Magnus Carlsen ventures a rare play: knight to e5.

ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT

This article is part of our 2021 World Chess Championship series.

The auditorium in Dubai hosting the 2021 World Chess Championship is reminiscent of the American Museum of Natural History in New York City. Each features a grand, darkened room with a glowing diorama, filled with motionless drama. And in both, a squid and a whale remain deadlocked in their boxes, caught in the middle of a grueling battle.

Magnus Carlsen of Norway, the longtime world No. 1, is defending his title against challenger Ian Nepomniachtchi of Russia, the world No. 5. On Saturday, the two played a roller coaster of a draw in 58 moves over 4.5 hours. They split the point, and the best-of-14 match sits level, 1-1. It has been more than five years since anyone won a regulation game in the World Chess Championship.

Here’s how the computer has seen the ebbs and flows of the games thus far this year:

Carlsen commanded the white pieces in the glass box on Saturday, moving first, with a cream-colored blazer to match. Before the game, the chesserati buzzed, wondering just how he would begin. In the 2018 world championship, Carlsen displayed a fun little pattern across his white games, opening with pawns to d4, c4, e4, d4, c4 and e4, which I assume sounds cool if you play it on a piano.

As it happened, Carlsen played d4 and for the second game in a row sacrificed a pawn to gain an early attacking initiative — perhaps counter to expectations against his famously aggressive Russian opponent. The players entered the Catalan opening. The Catalan is a “clash of concepts,” as explained by former world champion Viswanathan Anand on the official match broadcast: Which is more valuable, black’s extra pawn or white’s budding attack and bishop controlling the board’s longest diagonal?

Two moves later, Carlsen rode his knight into enemy territory, onto the e5 square — a rare, sharp move. When Nepomniachtchi responded, the position they had created had never before appeared on the tournament boards of top-level grandmasters. Shortly thereafter, Carlsen and Nepomniachtchi both walked away to take a brief rest, leaving the novel chess position sitting alone on a table in the box, like a still life in a museum display.

Expert observers admired Carlsen’s attacking chances but knew they wouldn’t come easy. “The position is dangerous and complicated, but it’s not one where white can immediately attack,” said Fabiano Caruana, the American No. 1, on Chess.com’s livestream. “It’s more long-term pressure.”

Despite the complexity, Carlsen appeared comfortable, likely well within his pregame preparation. He played quickly and opened a large time advantage — perhaps counter to expectations against the famously fast Nepomniachtchi.

But the clash of concepts eventually favored the pawn rather than the position, and the long-term investment never paid off. Nepomniachtchi defended and counterattacked with great precision. Around the 20th move, Carlsen sacrificed even more material, trading his rook for Nepomniachtchi’s knight to forestall a Russian equine invasion. On his 24th move, by this point heavily favored by the computer, Nepomniachtchi faced the position below:

The computer suggested the moves pawn-to-g6 or queen-to-e7, or taking the pawn on a4. Instead, Nepomniachtchi moved his pawn to c3, evidently a mistake, allowing Carlsen to reclaim some of his material deficit in the moves that followed. The game simplified (relatively!) after that — the position was roughly level for some 30 moves as pieces quickly left the board. The squid and the whale — I remain agnostic as to who is which — agreed to a draw with a rook and two pawns each.

“I thought I was doing well,” Carlsen said after the game, before admitting that he had simply overlooked the knight invasion that gave him so much trouble.

Nepomniachtchi also recalled the moment: “I thought, ‘Wow, suddenly it’s getting very nice for black.’”

But in the end, another day, another draw, another deadlocked diorama. “In general it was a very puzzling game,” Nepomniachtchi added. “It was very interesting and very chaotic.”

Game 3 begins Sunday at 7:30 a.m. Eastern. We’ll be covering the entire match here and on Twitter, and we’re excited to be puzzled as we stare into the glass box.

For even more writing on chess and other games, check out Roeder’s new book, “Seven Games: A Human History,” available in January.

Oliver Roeder was a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight. @ollie

El Salvador Bitcoin City: ‘Absurd Political Stunt by a Delusional Dictator’, Says Steve Hanke

By Jeffrey Gogo27 November 2021, 11:30 GMT+0000
Updated by Ryan James27 November 2021, 11:20 GMT+0000

Steve Hanke questioned the wisdom of funding the construction of a Bitcoin city in a country of abject poverty and inadequate social amenities.

Amidst the criticism, President Bukele revealed that the country added another 100 bitcoins to its growing stash.

Gold analyst Dan Popescu said El Salvador fits perfectly with the definition of a "banana republic governed by an authoritarian regime."

The Trust Project is an international consortium of news organizations building standards of transparency.



El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele announced on Nov. 20 that he plans to build a city that runs entirely on bitcoin. The city will be constructed at the base of Conchagua volcano in the country’s south-east.

El Salvador, a poor country in Central America, recently became the first nation-state to use bitcoin (BTC) as an official currency, alongside the U.S. dollar. While the global bitcoin community is excited about the development, the project has not been a runaway success.
Sponsored

Hanke, a professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University, questioned the wisdom of funding the construction of a crypto city in a country with searing poverty and inadequate social amenities, according to a tweet posted on Nov. 26.

“Dictator Bukele has announced plans to build a Bitcoin city…this is an absurd political stunt by a delusional dictator. Why doesn’t [he] focus on what Salvadorans actually need, like access to healthcare?” quipped the popular bitcoin skeptic.
‘Casino finance’

As part of the Bitcoin city funding plan, El Salvador is expected to issue $1 billion in bonds backed by the cryptocurrency in 2022. Half of the money raised will be used to buy BTC, and the remainder will go toward energy and bitcoin mining infrastructure.

Hanke criticized the plan sharply. He said:

This type of casino finance is bound to put Bukele in very hot water with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The IMF previously raised concern with El Salvador using bitcoin as legal tender. The financial institution cautioned that plans by the country to buy more of the digital asset required “very careful analysis” of the implications for its financial stability.

But as the price of bitcoin declined to multi-week lows of around $55,000 this week, President Bukele revealed on Nov. 26 that the country added another 100 bitcoins to its growing stash.

El Salvador “bought the dip”, he says, referring to a practice in financial investment of buying an asset after it drops in price, believing that to be a bargain.

In an earlier tweet, Hanke ranted about El Salvador’s falling dollar-denominated bonds, suggesting that Bukele intended to “replace” these with bitcoin bonds.

“But, a bitcoin bond would offer lower yields despite carrying greater risk. Looks like Bukele is trying to invent a new financial arithmetic,” he opined.

‘Banana republic’

While the economist routinely throws shade at bitcoin and crypto in general, he is not the only one to rail at Bukele’s Bitcoin city plans.

Gold analyst Dan Popescu said El Salvador fits perfectly with the definition of a “banana republic governed by an authoritarian regime.” Popescu took issue with the presence of foreign cryptocurrency firms in the Latin American country.

He alleged “economic exploitation” as foreign bitcoin entities “conspire with local corrupt government officials.” El Salvador is working with Blockstream, a crypto and blockchain tech firm based in Canada, in its $1 billion bitcoin bond raise.

According to Bukele, the Bitcoin city will take on the sign of the cryptocurrency in shape and will be powered by geothermal energy from the Conchagua volcano. Apart from value added tax of 10%, residents of that city will not pay any other taxes.

WALES

‘Hostile Conservative govt:’ Plaid Cymru members green light co-operation deal with Labour

“In the face of the pandemic and a hostile Conservative government in Westminster – a government determined to do everything it can to undermine our long-contested national institutions – it is in our nation’s interests for the two parties to work together for Wales.”

 by Joe Mellor
2021-11-28 09:06


Members of Wales’ nationalist party Plaid Cymru have voted to pass the Senedd co-operation deal with Welsh Labour.

On Saturday, the last day of the party’s annual conference, 94% of members decided in favour of the three-year deal.

The wide-ranging deal covers 46 policy areas including providing free school meals for all primary school children, the establishment of a free-at-point-of-need national care system and building a north-south railway.

It does not amount to a coalition, meaning Plaid will not enter government, and party leader Adam Price has assured members and supporters the party will remain in opposition.

Following the vote, Mr Price said: “The co-operation agreement will bring immediate, tangible and long-term benefit for the people of Wales.

“From feeding our children to caring for our elderly, this is a nation-building programme for Government which will change the lives of thousands of people the length and breadth of our country for the better.”

Self-government

He added: “Almost a quarter of a century ago, people in Wales voted for self-government for Wales, with a promise of a new type of politics. They placed their trust in a new democracy with an instruction to work differently – inclusively and co-operatively.

“In the face of the pandemic and a hostile Conservative government in Westminster – a government determined to do everything it can to undermine our long-contested national institutions – it is in our nation’s interests for the two parties to work together for Wales.”

Mr Price had addressed the conference on Friday saying the agreement, if passed, would be “a down-payment on independence” – the party’s main goal.

Discussions between the two parties were announced in September, months after Labour won 30 of the 60 seats in the Welsh Parliament, allowing it to remain in government but without a majority.

Plaid Cymru gained an extra seat in the election, bringing its total to 13, but dropped to third behind the Conservatives.

A deal was reached by the parties’ executive committees on November 21, which also proposed expanding the Welsh parliament, rent controls, and local tourism taxes, as well as a pledge to move the net zero target from 2050 to 2035.

Related: Mark Drakeford secures ‘radical programme’ for Wales containing many Corbyn policies

Coronavirus: Omicron cases found in four European countries, South Africa says it’s being ‘punished’

South Africa said the decision of several nations to ban flights from the country was ‘akin to punishing it for its advanced genomic sequencing’.

Scroll Staff

Travellers arriving at London's Heathrow airport will now have to take RT-PCR tests upon arrival. | Tolga Akmen/AFP

Cases of the Omicron strain of the coronavirus were reported in the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and the Czech Republic a day after it was declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization, The Guardian reported on Saturday.

The B.1.1.529 or the Omicron variant was first discovered in South Africa on November 24 with cases gradually occurring in Botswana, Israel, and Hong Kong. The virus variant has some concerning mutations, according to the World Health Organization, that suggest an increased risk of reinfection.

On Saturday, two cases of the Omicron variant were detected in the United Kingdom and Germany each, while one patient in Italy and another in Czech were infected with the new strain, The Guardian reported.

The two Omicron cases in the United Kingdom were connected to travel to southern Africa, British Health Minister Sajid Javid said, according to Al Jazeera. The country has now asked all travellers to take an RT-PCR test once they arrive in the United Kingdom.

Currently, the country has banned travellers from ten countries. The nations are South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Angola.

Meanwhile, Germany had isolated two of its citizens who were infected with the Omicron variant. However, the health ministry has not yet revealed where the citizens had travelled to.

The Italian government has also isolated the person infected with the variant. They had travelled to Mozambique, the country’s National Health Institute said, according to Al Jazeera.

Apart from European nations, no Omicron cases were detected in other countries till Sunday morning. However, countries such as Australia and India have called for rigorous testing of travellers from South Africa at the airport.

On Saturday, health officials in Sydney started urgent testing at the airport after two travellers on a flight from southern Africa tested positive for the coronavirus, Reuters reported.

Being punished, says South Africa

South Africa on Saturday said it was being “punished” for detecting the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, AFP reported. The country’s foreign ministry, in a statement, called out the countries that have banned flights from South Africa.

It said that the decision to ban flights from southern Africa “is akin to punishing South Africa for its advanced genomic sequencing and the ability to detect new variants quicker”.

“Excellent science should be applauded and not punished,” the foreign ministry said.

Currently, along with the United Kingdom, Germany, France Italy, Singapore and Israel have banned flights from South Africa. The United States will ban most travellers from eight countries of southern Africa from November 29.

Hong Kong confirms two cases of virulent new COVID-19 variant, one of which travelled from Canada

Global authorities around the world have already reacted with alarm Friday to the new coronavirus variant, dubbed Omicron, detected in South Africa


Stephanie Nebehay
Publishing date:Nov 26, 2021 • 

People leave the Regal Airport Hotel at Chek Lap Kok airport in Hong Kong on November 26, 2021, where a new Covid-19 variant deemed a 'major threat' was detected in a traveller from South Africa and who has since passed it on to a local man whilst in quarantine. 

PHOTO BY PETER PARKS / AFP
Article content

Two cases of the new COVID-19 strain raising alarm in parts of southern Africa and unnerving financial markets worldwide have been found in travellers in compulsory quarantine in Hong Kong.

A traveller from South Africa was found to have the variant — B.1.1.529, dubbed Omicron — while the other case was identified in a person who had travelled from Canada and was quarantined in the hotel room opposite his, the Hong Kong government said late Thursday. The traveller from South Africa used a mask with a valve that doesn’t filter exhaled air and may have transmitted the virus to his neighbour when the hotel room door was open, a health department spokesperson said Friday.

Twelve people who were staying in rooms close to the two Hong Kong cases are now undergoing compulsory 14-day quarantines at a government facility, according to the statement out Thursday.

Global authorities around the world have already reacted with alarm Friday to the new coronavirus variant detected in South Africa. The EU and Britain were among the first to tighten border controls as researchers seek to determine whether the mutation was vaccine-resistant

Canada is now closing its borders to all foreigners who have recently been to southern Africa. The ban and new testing and quarantine requirements for Canadians returning home applies to people who have been to South Africa, Mozambique, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Eswatini in the last two weeks.

The United States will restrict entry to travellers from eight southern African nations, President Joe Biden said on Friday. The policy does not ban flights or apply to U.S. citizens and lawful U.S. permanent residents, a Biden administration official said.

The U.S. restrictions will be effective Monday and apply to South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi.

The World Health Organization (WHO) on Friday classified the B.1.1.529 variant detected in South Africa as a SARS-CoV-2 “variant of concern,” saying it may spread more quickly than other forms.

Preliminary evidence suggested there is an increased risk of reinfection and there had been a “detrimental change in COVID-19 epidemiology,” it said in a statement after a closed meeting of independent experts who reviewed the data.

“This variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning. Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other (variants of concern), it said.

Omicron is the fifth variant to carry such a designation.

“This variant has been detected at faster rates than previous surges in infection, suggesting that this variant may have a growth advantage,” the WHO said.

Current PCR tests continue to successfully detect the variant, it said.

Earlier, the WHO cautioned countries against hastily imposing travel restrictions linked to the variant of COVID-19, saying they should take a “risk-based and scientific approach.”

The head of the UN World Tourism Organization called for a quick decision.

“It depends on WHO recommendations, but my recommendation will be to take decisions today, not after one week, because if it continues to spread as we are expecting then it will be late and will make no sense to apply restrictions,” organization chief Zurab Pololikashvili told Reuters.

One South African scientist expert labelled London’s ban a symptom of “vaccine apartheid,” though European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said the EU also aimed to halt air travel from the region and several other countries toughened curbs, including India, Japan and Israel.

“It is now important that all of us in Europe act very swiftly, decisively and united,” von der Leyen said, calling for EU citizens to get vaccinated and improve their protection with booster jabs. “All air travel to these countries should be suspended until we have a clearer understanding about the danger posed by this new variant.”

The new cases of the new variant may also prompt Hong Kong to further tighten what is already one of the toughest quarantine regimes in the world, with travellers from some places isolated in hotels for up to 21 days.

The city is one of the few places in the world that’s yet to have a recorded community outbreak of delta, the contagious variant first detected in India that has now become the dominant virus strain worldwide. The mutation has forced some countries who were able to keep COVID-19 out through quarantines and border curbs in 2020 to abandon that approach, instead pivoting to treating the virus as endemic.

David Hui, a professor of respiratory medicine at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and a member of the city’s COVID advisory panel, told local radio Friday that Hong Kong should ban all returnees from Africa because of the variant, according to thestandard.hk.

South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said on Friday that preliminary studies suggest a new COVID-19 variant detected in his country may be more transmissible, but the decision of other countries to impose travel restrictions is “unjustified.”

Phaahla told a media briefing that South Africa was acting with transparency, and that travel bans contravened the norms and standards of the WHO.

The WHO said it would take weeks to determine how effective vaccines were against the variant , which was first identified this week.

The news pummeled global stocks and oil amid fears about what new bans would do to the global travel industry and already shaky economies across southern Africa.

The variant has a spike protein that is dramatically different to the one in the original coronavirus that vaccines are based on, the UK Health Security Agency said, raising fears about how current vaccines will fare.

“As scientists have described, (this is) the most significant variant they’ve encountered to date,” British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps told Sky News.

WHO spokesperson Christian Lindmeier told a UN briefing that it would take several weeks to determine the variant ‘s transmissibility and the effectiveness of vaccines, noting that 100 sequences of it had been reported so far.

In this file photo taken on November 01, 2021 passengers walk with their luggage upon their arrival at Ben Gurion Airport near Lod, as Israel reopens to tourists vaccinated against COVID-19. PHOTO BY JACK GUEZ / AFP

South African sport began to shut down on Friday, with the imposition of travel bans forcing international rugby teams and golfers to scramble to leave.

Belgium identified Europe’s first case, adding to those in Botswana, Israel and Hong Kong. Denmark has sequenced all COVID-19 cases and found no sign of the new mutation, Danish health authorities said on Thursday.

Israel imposed a travel ban covering most of Africa.

“We are currently on the verge of a state of emergency , ” Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said in a statement. “Our main principle is to act fast, strong and now.”

One epidemiologist in Hong Kong said it may be too late to tighten travel curbs.

“Most likely this virus is already in other places,” said Ben Cowling of the University of Hong Kong.

European states had already been expanding booster vaccinations and tightening curbs as the continent battles a fourth COVID-19 wave, with many reporting record daily rises in cases.

Discovery of the new variant comes as Europe and the United States enter winter, with more people gathering indoors in the run-up to Christmas, providing a breeding ground for infection.

Italy imposed an entry ban on people who have visited southern African states in the last 14 days, while France suspended flights from southern Africa and Bahrain and Croatia will ban arrivals from some countries.

India issued an advisory to all states to test and screen international travelers from South Africa and other “at risk” countries, while Japan tightened border controls.

The coronavirus has swept the world in the two years since it was first identified in central China, infecting almost 260 million people and killing 5.4 million.

Omicron: How Dangerous Is The B.1.1.529 Variant Found In South Africa?

On Nov 26, 2021
By Adam Vaughan

A new variant of SARS-CoV-2, known first as B.1.1.529 and now named omicron, has an unusually high number of mutations and appears to have triggered a recent surge in cases in South Africa.

When was omicron first identified?

It was first detected on 23 November in South Africa using samples taken between 14 and 16 November. Joe Phaahla, South Africa’s health minister, said on 25 November that he believes the variant is behind an exponential daily rise in covid-19 cases across the country in recent days. The same day, the UK Health Security Agency (HSA) designated it a variant under investigation, triggering travel restrictions for people travelling to the UK from South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini, Zimbabwe and Namibia. The World Health Organization had listed B.1.1.529 as a variant under monitoring, but its Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution decided on 26 November to class it as a variant of concern. The WHO has now named it omicron after the Greek letter.

What is happening in South Africa?

National daily cases have gone from 274 on 11 November to 1000 a fortnight later. While the rate of growth has been fast, absolute numbers are still relatively low compared with the UK, which saw 50,000 cases on 26 November. More than 80 per cent of South Africa’s cases are currently in the country’s Gauteng province. All of the 77 cases sequenced in the province between 12 and 20 November were identified as being caused by the variant. The estimated reproduction number, the average number of people that an individual is likely to infect, is almost 2 in Gauteng compared with nearly 1.5 nationally.

What do B.1.1.529’s mutations tell us?

The variant has a “very unusual constellation of mutations”, says Sharon Peacock at the University of Cambridge. There are more than 30 mutations in the spike protein, the part of the virus that interacts with human cells. Other mutations may help the virus bypass our immune systems, make it more transmissible and less susceptible to treatments, according to the HSA. But the body notes that “this has not been proven”.

What the mutations mean is currently theoretical and based on experience of past mutations of SARS-CoV-2 rather than lab tests. Wendy Barclay at Imperial College London says “we don’t really know” if it will reduce the effectiveness of vaccines. Nonetheless, she adds that, in theory, the number of changes across the antigenic sites on the variant’s spike means the effectiveness of antibodies produced by covid-19 vaccines would be compromised.

Mutations on a part of the virus known as the furin cleavage site are similar to those seen in the alpha and delta variants, which could help the variant spread more easily. Barclay says “it’s very biologically plausible” that B.1.1.529 has greater transmissibility than delta.

The mutations also mean that the new variant is likely to be more resistant to antibody treatments such as those developed by Regeneron, which have been shown to save lives. “That is really a cause for concern,” says Barclay. One small bright spot is that, to date, there are no signs that the variant causes more severe disease.

How far has it spread?

Genomic sequencing has found the variant in South Africa, Botswana and Hong Kong. There are also reported cases in Israel, apparently originating from a traveller from Malawi, and in Belgium, from someone who had travelled from Egypt. UK health secretary Sajid Javid said it is “highly likely” that the variant has spread to other countries. As of 27 November, two cases had been detected in the UK, where about a fifth of positive cases are sent for genomic sequencing. Even in countries with low levels of sequencing, it may be possible to get early warning signs, because the variant is linked to a mutation called S-gene dropout, which is picked up by PCR tests, says Jeffrey Barrett at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Hinxton, UK.

How have other places responded?

The UK and EU have both imposed restrictions on people travelling from countries in southern Africa, with Javid saying the variant is of “huge international concern”. Prime minister Boris Johnson announced further travel restrictions on 27 November.

Is it a given that this will outcompete the delta variant?

We don’t know. “We don’t have definitive evidence at the moment that this is more transmissible, but there are hints there that it may be,” says Peacock, pointing to the growth in South Africa and the higher R number in Gauteng. Some earlier variants have failed to get a toehold in certain countries because of the competition from other variants: beta hasn’t become established in the UK, for example, while alpha spread from Europe but never reached high levels in South Africa. “If this variant is not as transmissible as delta that would be good news for sure,” says Barrett.

What can I do?

All the usual measures of social distancing, handwashing, mask-wearing, getting vaccinated and having a booster shot still apply. The emergence of such a potentially worrying variant is, however, a reminder of the risk of uneven vaccination rates globally – only 24 per cent of people are fully vaccinated in South Africa.

How much do we really know about this variant?

Most of our knowledge is from the Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa, and the South African government, both of which have been praised by researchers for acting fast to share information on the variant. But there is more that we don’t know than we do. Tulio de Oliveira at Stellenbosch University, South Africa, said yesterday that the full significance of the variant’s mutations “remain uncertain.” Peacock adds: “It’s important to stress how much we don’t know this new variant.“

How vaccine makers plan to address the new COVID-19 omicron variant


November 27, 2021
NPR
DUSTIN JONESTwitter

A gas station attendant stands next to a newspaper headline in Pretoria, South Africa, on Saturday. The new omicron variant has spread from South Africa to parts of Europe, and as far as Hong Kong.

Denis Farrell/AP

A new strain of COVID-19 first discovered in South Africa was declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization on Friday. Here's how the pharmaceutical industry plans to address the latest coronavirus curve ball.

Vaccine makers are already pivoting their efforts to combat the new variant: testing higher doses of booster shots, designing new boosters that anticipate strain mutations, and developing omicron-specific boosters.

In a statement sent to NPR, Moderna said it has been working on a comprehensive strategy to predict variants of concern since the beginning of 2021. One approach is to double the current booster from 50 to 100 micrograms. Secondly, the vaccine maker has been studying two booster vaccines that are designed to anticipate mutations like those found in the omicron variant. The company also said it will ramp up efforts to make a booster candidate that specifically targets omicron.

"From the beginning, we have said that as we seek to defeat the pandemic, it is imperative that we are proactive as the virus evolves," said Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel. "The mutations in the Omicron variant are concerning and for several days, we have been moving as fast as possible to execute our strategy to address this variant."


The omicron variant spreads across Europe as new travel bans take effect

Pfizer and BioNTech told Reuters that it expects more data about the omicron variant to be collected within two weeks. That information will help determine whether or not they need to modify their current vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech said that a vaccine tailored for the omicron variant, if needed, could be ready to ship in approximately 100 days.

Johnson & Johnson said in a statement sent to NPR that it too is already testing its vaccine's efficacy against the new variant.

The omicron variant was first reported to the WHO on Nov. 24, the WHO said. Preliminary evidence indicates the variant poses an increased risk for reinfection due to the large number of mutations. Until recently, cases across South Africa have predominantly been from the delta variant, an earlier strain that has pushed health care systems to the max since early summer. But omicron infections have been on the rise in recent weeks, the WHO reported.

More concerning, omicron cases have emerged across the globe. Al Jazeera reported that cases have been confirmed in the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, Belgium, Israel and Hong Kong.

News of the rapidly spreading variant led to a new set of air travel restrictions from South Africa and seven other countries, implemented by President Joe Biden, that go into effect Monday. The president made the announcement the day after Thanksgiving, one of the busiest travel periods of the year.

Unlike last year, when millions of people traveled against the advice of health experts, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and chief medical advisor to the president, Dr. Anthony Fauci, more or less condoned Thanksgiving get-togethers for vaccinated Americans. And, according to an American Automobile Association travel forecast, over 53 million people were expected to travel for Thanksgiving — an 18% jump compared to last year — including more than 4 million by air.

As of Friday, the CDC said that no cases of the omicron variant had been identified in the United States. However, Fauci said on Saturday that he would not be surprised if the variant is already here.

"We have not detected it yet, but when you have a virus that is showing this degree of transmissibility and you're already having travel-related cases that they've noted in Israel and Belgium and other places ... it almost invariably is ultimately going to go essentially all over," he said in an interview on the Today show.

As Americans prepare to transition from one busy holiday to the next, the CDC is predicting that coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths will increase over the next four weeks. More than 776,000 people in the U.S. have died of COVID-19 to date, according to Johns Hopkins University's tracker, and the country is projected to surpass 800,000 deaths by Christmas.

PRO LIFE USA
Murder Is A Leading Cause Of Death In Pregnancy In The US

“We have shouted it out for years, but no one is really paying attention," one expert said.

Dan Vergano BuzzFeed News Reporter
Posted on November 24, 2021

Kali9 / Getty Images

A woman in Houston who showed an ultrasound to her boyfriend, a mother of five who was carrying a sixth child, and a pregnant woman coming home from a baby shower were all recent victims of homicide, a top cause of death for pregnant people in the US.

Pregnant people are more than twice as likely to be murdered during pregnancy and immediately after giving birth than to die from any other cause, according to a nationwide death certificate study. Homicide far exceeds obstetric causes of death during pregnancy, such as hemorrhage, hypertension, or infection.

Nationwide, there were around 10,000 homicides reported last year, according to FBI statistics, and only 1 in 5 victims were female. But pregnant women face a risk of being murdered 16% higher than women the same age who are not pregnant, the recently released Obstetrics & Gynecology journal study concludes. (The paper focused on people identified as female based on their death certificate.)

This new nationwide analysis was enabled by a change in how death certificates are recorded. As of 2017, certificates in all states now have a checkbox for “pregnancy.”

Investigators looked at all deaths among women ages 10 to 44 held in a federal database from 2018 and 2019. They found 273 homicides of pregnant women, which make up almost 6% of all murdered women in the US. Most of them were shot at home; guns were involved in 7 out of 10 such homicides, an increase from past decades.

“It is surprising to many people,” said study author Veronica Gillispie-Bell, medical director of the Louisiana Perinatal Quality Collaborative. An earlier finding that homicide was a leading cause of death for pregnant people in her state, followed by overdoses and car crashes, led the study’s team to look nationwide. “We wanted to see if pregnancy, in and of itself, was a more dangerous time, and it was.”

Though it is well understood by victims of domestic violence, the danger that pregnant people face — often from their partners — receives little public notice.

"We have shouted it out for years, but no one is really paying attention," Jacquelyn Campbell, an intimate partner violence researcher at the Johns Hopkins School of Nursing, told BuzzFeed News. "We have to do a better job of assessing the lethal risks to pregnant women."

According to the study, homicide rates were particularly high among pregnant women 24 and younger, and for pregnant Black women, who were three times more at risk than their white counterparts. That mirrors the overall risk of dying during pregnancy from all causes, including obstetric ones, which is about 2.5 times higher for Black people, pointing to an overall lack of access to healthcare and, in turn, screening for domestic violence. The racial gap in US wealth also plays a role, as studies have found a link between poverty and intimate partner violence.

“All of this means we need to look beyond the hospital for what is really a risk to women,” Gillispie-Bell said. Simply screening for domestic violence doesn’t help if there aren’t resources to assist with jobs, housing, and other reasons that people stay in dangerous relationships.

The homicide finding mirrors two decades of past reports, Campbell said, and it’s still likely a conservative estimate because death records are often incomplete. Part of the reason that the murder statistic is relatively unknown, she added, lies in the way that maternal deaths are reported in the US. Medical causes such as hemorrhage are considered "related" to pregnancy, while homicide, overdose, and suicide, other leading causes of death in pregnant people, are merely "associated" with pregnancy in federal statistics.

Causes of death that are “related” and “associated” with pregnancy are reported separately, and medical boards tend to focus on the former, believing they can be solved by medical professionals.

A general explanation for the higher homicide risk that pregnant people face at this time is that their relationships face heightened stress, which might exacerbate an already dangerous situation. “Nobody who works in intimate partner violence will be surprised by this finding,” said Penn State’s Penelope Morrison, an assistant professor of biobehavioral health. However, she added, specific risk factors for homicide during pregnancy beyond a history of intimate partner violence aren’t well established.

“Sadly, we cannot hear from the women what happened,” she said.

The US homicide rate rose by 30% in 2020, which has experts worried about the trend for pregnant people in the pandemic.

“We expect that domestic violence has only gotten worse during the pandemic, with people more confined,” Gillispie-Bell said. “We expect we will see this has only gotten worse.”


MORE ON THIS
Domestic Violence Survivors Are Turning To Social Media After Gabby Petito’s Death To Support Each Other And Pass On The Warning Signs Nicole Fallert · Oct. 21, 2021
A Man Who Killed His Girlfriend And Five Members Of Her Family Was Angry He Wasn't Invited To A Party, Police Said Stephanie K. Baer · May 11, 2021
Angelina Jolie Has Advice For Anyone Experiencing Abus e larryfitzmaurice · Dec. 8, 2020
Photos Show The Devastating Long-Term Effects Of Domestic Assault Kate Bubacz · Nov. 28, 2020


Dan Vergano is a science reporter for BuzzFeed News and is based in Washington, DC.
Contact Dan Vergano at dan.vergano@buzzfeed.com.

Got a confidential tip? Submit it here.