It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Monday, October 19, 2020
Obamacare premiums decline for 3rd year in a row as Trump seeks to take down the landmark law
The average premium for the benchmark plan will drop by 2% next year in the 36 states using the federal exchange, the third year in a row of declines, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services announced Monday. Premiums have declined a total of 8% since 2018.
Also, many consumers will have a greater choice of plans. Some 22 more issuers will offer coverage next year, when considering states that are also participating in the federal exchange this year. That brings the total to 181. The share of counties with only one participating insurer will drop to 9% next year, down from 50% in 2018.
The trend is a marked turnaround from the early days of the Affordable Care Act exchanges, which launched in 2014. Many insurers underestimated the health needs of enrollees and priced their plans too low, causing them to suffer big losses. Some left the market, while others raised rates by double digits to stem the bleeding.
Also, President Donald Trump's efforts to undermine the health care law in the first year of his administration were a factor in carriers raising the average premium for the benchmark plan by 37% in 2018.
Since then, the market has stabilized and become more attractive, drawing insurers back into the exchanges and prompting new carriers to offer policies. In addition, the Trump administration has approved more than a dozen state requests to enact reinsurance programs, which lower premiums by shielding insurers from high-cost patients.
The average monthly cost of the benchmark plan next year will be $379 for a 27-year-old and $1,486 for a family of four. However, those who qualify for federal subsidies will pay less than 10% of their income. Some 88% of enrollees on Healthcare.gov receive assistance. For next year, an individual earning less than $51,040 and a family of four making less than $104,800 are eligible for subsidies.
Open enrollment starts November 1 and runs through December 15 in the states using the federal exchange. Pennsylvania and New Jersey are leaving Healthcare.gov next year, joining 12 other states and the District of Columbia in running their own exchanges.
About 11.4 million people signed up for coverage on the exchanges for 2020, down from a high of 12.7 million in 2016.
The Affordable Care Act remains in effect while its future is decided in the courts. The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in a case seeking to overturn Obamacare on November 10.
Retirees rally in Belarus against authoritarian president
KYIV, Ukraine — About 3,000 retirees rallied in the Belarusian capital of Minsk for a third straight Monday to demand the resignation of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko as mass protests of a disputed election continue to roil the country.
They marched through the streets of Minsk carrying flowers and chanting for Lukashenko to “Go away!” after the Aug. 9 balloting that was widely seen as rigged.
“How many grandmas should it take to oust one grandpa?” said one banner held by the protesters, referring to the 66-year-old president.
Pro-Lukashenko pensioners also rallied in the capital. Some 2,000 people — many of whom were men in military and security forces uniforms — came to Independence Square with national flags and banners that said, “For peace, prosperity and traditional values." Local media reported that some had been bused to the rally in what appeared to be an organized effort.
Lukashenko, who has run the country for 26 years, was declared the winner of the election with 80% of the vote. His main opponent, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, got only 10% and refused to recognize the results as valid, saying they had been manipulated.
Tens of thousands have been regularly protesting in Minsk and other cities since the vote, demanding that Lukashenko step down, with the largest rallies drawing up to 200,000 people.
The authorities tried to disperse the mostly peaceful crowds with truncheons, stun grenades and water cannons, and they have made mass detentions. On Monday, the country’s Interior Ministry threatened to use firearms against them “if need be,” saying the rallies “have become organized and extremely radical.” However, the demonstrations have continued despite the crackdown.
More than 50,000 people gathered in Minsk on Sunday for a traditional anti-government march, according to the Viasna human rights centre, and smaller protests also took place in other cities. The Interior Ministry reported that 280 demonstrators were detained on Sunday, 215 of them in Minsk. The ministry estimated the crowd in the capital at 7,000.
According to Viasna, nearly 14,900 people have been detained since the election, and 91 of them have been declared political prisoners.
Several journalists who covered the protests for Belarusian online media outlets were sentenced Monday to 13-15 days in jail.
Tsikhanouskaya, who is in exile in Lithuania after leaving the country in fear for her safety, has threatened to call a nationwide strike unless Lukashenko resigns, releases political prisoners and stops the crackdown on protesters.
“If our demands aren’t fulfilled by Oct. 25, the entire country will peacefully take to the streets,” she said in a statement last week. “On Oct. 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state-owned stores will collapse.”
She said authorities have released Ilya Salei, a lawyer for her top associate, Maria Kolesnikova, from detention.
Kolesnikova was jailed last month on charges of undermining state security, which could bring a five-year prison term if convicted. Salei also was detained on the same charge.
On Monday, authorities released from jail Vitaly Shklyarov, a Russian political consultant who also holds Belarusian citizenship, and Lilia Vlasova, a prominent member of the opposition's Coordination Council formed to push for a transition of power. Both were detained earlier this year and will remain under house arrest.
The council, whose prominent members were either arrested or forced to leave the country, said in a statement that all those recently released “remain political prisoners” because the charges against them haven't been dropped.
“Only freeing of all political prisoners and ending persecution of people for their political views can be a step towards the beginning of resolving the political crisis,” the statement read.
“The authorities are trying to mobilize their supporters and divide the opposition by ramping up repressions against some and releasing the others,” independent political analyst Alexander Klaskousky said.
Neither approach works, he added.
“For the third month, the protests are not dying down and the political crisis deepens still, leaving the authorities less room to manoeuvr,” Klaskousky said.
The Associated Press
BETA
Chile police arrest 600 after protests as referendum looms AFP Police arrested nearly 600 people after demonstrations to mark the anniversary of Chile's social protests turned violent as rioters torched two Catholic churches, the government said Monday.
Police stations were attacked as the authorities recorded 107 serious incidents nationwide while violence continued overnight, interior ministry undersecretary Juan Francisco Galli told reporters.
The demonstration came just a week before Chileans vote in a referendum on whether to replace the dictatorship-era constitution -- one of the key demands when the protest movement began in October 2019
Galli said streets were barricaded amid "looting and attempted looting" of stores.
The violence erupted after around 30,000 protesters flocked to Santiago's central Plaza Italia for a peaceful demonstration, the government said.
But as the afternoon wore on, clashes broke out on the periphery of the square, more than 300 meters from the main, peaceful, demonstration.
The official said there was a "very clear distinction in how the day evolved" after it began with a peaceful demonstration but ended with serious acts of violence.
The most serious incidents occurred when hooded men attacked two churches and set them alight.
One church close to Plaza Italia was burned to the ground as hooded protesters cheered, while a second place of worship was looted and also suffered fire damage.
The small Church of the Assumption, which was destroyed in Sunday's violence, is known as the "artists' parish," according to local press. The building dated back to 1876.
- Nationwide clashes -
Clashes also occurred in other neighborhoods of Santiago and in cities around the country, resulting in 580 arrests, 287 in the capital alone, Galli said.
"In these events, there is no demonstration, there is no demand that is acceptable," he said.
Firefighters managed to get that blaze under control.
There were clashes between groups of football hooligans in one Santiago neighborhood, while protesters in Plaza Italia doused a statue with red paint.
Interior and Security Minister Víctor Perez, said on Sunday that the violence had come from a "minority" of protesters.
The images of the blazing churches was a stark reminder of the months of violent protests that broke out in Santiago last October 18, initially over a rise in metro fares.
The unrest quickly broadened into generalized protests against the country's stark inequalities and left some 30 dead and thousands wounded.
Demonstrators on Sunday also called for their countrymen to vote to "approve" the proposed constitutional change.
"This is the opportunity to say 'enough!' We're here and we're going to vote for 'Approve,'" Paulina Villarroel, a 29-year-old psychologist, told AFP.
On October 25, more than 14 million Chileans will decide whether to amend the constitution.
The referendum to decide whether to change the constitution established under the military rule of General Augusto Pinochet (1973-90) was originally due to take place in April but had to be postponed as the country of 18 million reeled from the deadly coronavirus pandemic.
For those supporting a yes vote -- notably the leftist opposition -- a new constitution would allow for the establishment of a new and fairer social order in one of the Latin American countries most marked by economic and other forms of inequality.
pa/dga/db/ft
Hand signals only: How (MILLENIAL) Thais are marshalling mass protests
Pro-democracy protesters attend an anti-government demonstration, in Bangkok
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Hands point above head = need umbrella; Hands held over head = need helmet; Hands crossed over chest = enough supplies here.
Thai protesters are learning a whole new language, developed within days to coordinate among crowds of thousands of people at demonstrations that have swollen in defiance of a government ban and despite the arrest of many protest leaders.
"Everyone has been helping each other out," said 19-year-old Riam, who like most protesters would only give one name. "At first, we had to work out what people were saying, but with the gestures, it's pretty easy to guess."
Some of the words in the Thai hand signal vocabulary are the same as those used by protesters in Hong Kong. Some they made up themselves and have now gained common usage.
Three months of protests in Thailand have sought to bring down Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a former junta leader, and to curb the powers of the monarchy of King Maha Vajiralongkorn
.
They gained added momentum last week with a government crackdown that brought the arrest of several of the highest profile protest leaders and saw police using water cannon for the first time on Friday
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That has also meant a need to be able to quickly move protective equipment and other supplies from point to point so that everyone can be prepared.
Police spokesman Kissana Phathanacharoen noted that the protest situation was "very dynamic" and that people should understand their presence there was illegal.
Since Friday, police have not tried to break up protests, but protesters are taking no chances.
Their new language only took shape at the weekend - when groups started to teach and practice the moves together. Some messages are still passed down human chains by shouting them in a form of Chinese whispers that are anything but whispered.
"Everyone is well educated and learns how to survive without the leaders," said 20-year-old Tangmae as she demonstrated some of the signs. "We should communicate so the protest can happen in an orderly way."
(Editing by Matthew Tostevin, William Maclean)
Millennials get little satisfaction from (CAPITALI$T) democracy: Cambridge study
LONDON (Reuters) - Young people are less satisfied with democracy and more disillusioned than at any other time in the past century, especially in Europe, North America, Africa and Australia, a study by the University of Cambridge has found.
Millennials, or those born between 1981 and 1996, are more disillusioned than Generation X, those born between 1965 and 1981, or Baby Boomers born between 1944 and 1964 and the Interwar Generation of 1918-1943.
"Across the world, younger generations are not only more dissatisfied with democratic performance than the old, but also more discontented than previous generations at similar life stages," the Cambridge study found.
The picture is bad in the United States, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, France, Australia and the United Kingdom.
But satisfaction has increased in Germany, South Korea and many of the post-Communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
The main reason behind the disillusion with democracy among young people was inequality of wealth and income, the report said, citing figures showing that Millennials make up around a quarter of the U.S. population but hold just 3% of the wealth. Baby Boomers held 21% of the wealth at the same age.
The Cambridge Centre for the Future of Democracy delved into data from over 4.8 million respondents collected across 160 countries between 1973 and 2020.
For a link: http://www.cam.ac.uk/youthanddemocracy
(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Mark Heinrich)
All-female scientific coalition calls for marine protected area for Antarctica Peninsula
Plus other ways to help penguins, whales, and seabirds
IMAGE: THE PARTICIPANTS OF HOMEWARD BOUND COHORT 4, THE LARGEST ALL-FEMALE EXPEDITION TO ANTARCTICA. view more
CREDIT: WILL ROGAN
The Western Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming places on earth. It is also home to threatened humpback and minke whales, chinstrap, Adélie and gentoo penguin colonies, leopard seals, killer whales, seabirds like skuas and giant petrels, and krill - the bedrock of the Antarctic food chain.
With sea ice covering ever-smaller areas and melting more rapidly due to climate change, many species' habitats have decreased. The ecosystem's delicate balance is consequently tilted, leaving species in danger of extinction.
Cumulative threats from a range of human activities including commercial fishing, research activities and tourism combined with climate change is exacerbating this imbalance, and a tipping point is fast approaching.
Dr Carolyn Hogg, from the University of Sydney School of Life and Environmental Sciences, was part of the largest ever all-female expedition to the Antarctic Peninsula, with the women in STEMM initiative, Homeward Bound, in late 2019. There, she witnessed the beauty and fragility of the area, and the negative impacts of climate change and human activity on native species, first-hand. As part of the Homeward Bound program she learnt about the science, conservation and governance of Antarctica.
In a new commentary piece published in Nature, Dr Hogg and her colleagues from the expedition outline these threats, and importantly, offer ways to counter them. More than 280 women in STEMM who have participated in the Homeward Bound initiative are co-signatories to the piece.
A global initiative, Homeward Bound 'aims to elevate the voices of women in science, technology, engineering mathematics and medicine in leading for positive outcomes for our planet'.
Women are noticeably absent in Antarctica's human history, which is steeped in tales of male heroism. Female scientists are still a minority in the region's research stations.
"Now, more than ever, a broad range of perspectives is essential in global decision-making, if we are to mitigate the many threats our planet faces," said Dr Hogg.
"Solutions include the ratification of a Marine Protected Area around the Peninsula, set to be discussed on 19 October, at a meeting of a group of governments that collectively manage the Southern Ocean's resources," said Dr Hogg. "The region is impacted by a number of threats, each potentially problematic in their own right, but cumulated together they will be catastrophic."
Decreasing krill affects whole ecosystem
The Peninsula's waters are home to 70 percent of Antarctic krill. In addition to climate change, these krill populations are threatened by commercial fishing. Last year marked the third largest krill catch on record. Nearly 400,000 tonnes of this animal were harvested, to be used for omega-3 dietary supplements and fishmeal.
"Even relatively small krill catches can be harmful if they occur in a particular region, at a sensitive time for the species that live there," said Dr Cassandra Brooks, a co-author on the comment from the University of Colorado, Boulder. "For example, fishing when penguins are breeding lowers their food intake, and affects their subsequent breeding success. A Marine Protected Area will conserve and protect this unique ecosystem and its wildlife, and we need to implement it now."
Climate change is fundamentally altering the Western Antarctic Peninsula:
temperatures reached a record 20.75°C in February 2020
the average daily temperature that month was two degrees higher than the mean over the past 70 years
almost 90 percent of the region's glaciers are receding rapidly
in spring 2016, sea-ice levels reached their lowest since records began
if carbon emissions keep climbing, within 50 years the area of sea-ice will almost halve, and the volume of ice-shelves will decrease by one quarter
As sea ice recedes, populations of larval and juvenile krill, which use the ice for shelter and to feed off the algae it attracts, decline.
A warmer climate and less sea-ice cover will also give opportunities to invasive species, which can enter the territory via international ships, including those carrying tourists.
The lasting tourism and research footprint
Tourism's footprint is growing. The Peninsula is the most-visited region in Antarctica, owing to its proximity to South America, dramatic beauty and rich marine ecosystem.
Tourist numbers have more than doubled in the past decade, with 74,000 visiting last year compared to 33,000 in 2009.
"Ships can pollute the ocean with micro-plastics, oils and ship noise," said Dr Justine Shaw, another co-author from the University of Queensland.
While the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO), a self-regulating association that advocates for safe and environmentally responsible travel, provides guidelines for cruise ships and tourists, "an increasing number of vessels that are not IAATO members and that carry up to about 500 passengers have begun visiting the region, and this is concerning as it adds greater pressure," Dr Shaw said.
While the collection of data and knowledge is important, research activities can also potentially damage the Antarctic Peninsula's sensitive environment, the team stated.
The Peninsula hosts science facilities belonging to 18 nations - the highest concentration on the continent. New stations and expansions are ever-present.
While these scientific endeavours can increase our understanding of native species', there can be negative impacts on the region if not properly managed. Dr Shaw explained: "Buildings and infrastructure displace wildlife and vegetation."
Three ways to protect the Peninsula
1. A Marine Protected Area (MPA) designation for the waters
The authors endorse a proposed MPA for the western Antarctic Peninsula. Led by Chile and Argentina, this is due to be discussed during a two-week meeting commencing 19 October by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), a group of governments that collectively manage the Southern Ocean's resources.
The MPA would reduce commercial fishing in ecologically sensitive areas, helping preserve the food chain and ensuring greater sustainability for the future in surrounding areas.
A comparable MPA for the Ross Sea, in southern Antarctica, was agreed to in October 2016 to global celebration.
2. Protect land areas
Only 1.5 percent of Antarctica's ice-free terrain enjoys formal protected status. Much unprotected land is adjacent to research and tourist areas and is therefore vulnerable to human-generated risks like pollution and invasive species.
The authors call for a greater extent and variety of landscapes to be protected.
"Globally, parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity have agreed that 17 percent of land should be protected to ensure conservation of biodiversity. This is a good starting point for Antarctica," Dr Hogg said.
3. Integrate conservation efforts
For conservation efforts to be effective, they have to be collaborative. Dr Shaw furnished examples: "The Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs (COMNAP) must work to limit the expansion of research infrastructure. Tour operators' body IAATO and parties to the Antarctic Treaty System should cooperate to better manage tourist activity - ensuring all tour operators abide by IAATO regulations regardless of whether they are IAATO members."
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What is the Anthropocene? – current definition and status
The ‘Anthropocene’ is a term widely used since its coining by Paul Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer in 2000 to denote the present geological time interval, in which many conditions and processes on Earth are profoundly altered by human impact. This impact has intensified significantly since the onset of industrialization, taking us out of the Earth System state typical of the Holocene Epoch that post-dates the last glaciation.
The ‘Anthropocene’ has developed a range of meanings among vastly different scholarly communities. Here we examine the Anthropocene as a geological time (chronostratigraphic) unit and potential addition to the Geological Time Scale, consistent with Crutzen and Stoermer’s original proposal. The Anthropocene Working Group (AWG) is charged with this task as a component body of the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy (SQS) which is itself a constituent body of the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS).
Phenomena associated with the Anthropocene include: an order-of-magnitude increase in erosion and sediment transport associated with urbanization and agriculture; marked and abrupt anthropogenic perturbations of the cycles of elements such as carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and various metals together with new chemical compounds; environmental changes generated by these perturbations, including global warming, sea-level rise, ocean acidification and spreading oceanic ‘dead zones’; rapid changes in the biosphere both on land and in the sea, as a result of habitat loss, predation, explosion of domestic animal populations and species invasions; and the proliferation and global dispersion of many new ‘minerals’ and ‘rocks’ including concrete, fly ash and plastics, and the myriad ‘technofossils’ produced from these and other materials.
Many of these changes will persist for millennia or longer, and are altering the trajectory of the Earth System, some with permanent effect. They are being reflected in a distinctive body of geological strata now accumulating, with potential to be preserved into the far future.
The Anthropocene is not currently a formally defined geological unit within the Geological Time Scale; officially we still live within the Meghalayan Age of the Holocene Epoch. A proposal to formalise the Anthropocene is being developed by the AWG. Based on preliminary recommendations made by the AWG in 2016, this proposal is being developed on the following basis:
It is being considered at series/epoch level (and so its base/beginning would terminate the Holocene Series/Epoch as well as Meghalayan Stage/Age);
It would be defined by the standard means for a unit of the Geological Time Scale, via a Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP), colloquially known as a ‘golden spike’;
Its beginning would be optimally placed in the mid-20th century, coinciding with the array of geological proxy signals preserved within recently accumulated strata and resulting from the ‘Great Acceleration’ of population growth, industrialization and globalization;
The sharpest and most globally synchronous of these signals, that may form a primary marker, is made by the artificial radionuclides spread worldwide by the thermonuclear bomb tests from the early 1950s.
Analyses of potential ‘golden spike’ locations are underway. The resultant proposal, when made, would need supermajority (>60%) agreement by the AWG and its parent bodies (successively the SQS and ICS) and ratification by the Executive Committee of the International Union of Geological Sciences. The success of any such proposal is not guaranteed.
Broadly, to be accepted as a formal geological time term the Anthropocene needs to be (a) scientifically justified, i.e. the ‘geological signal’ currently being produced in strata now forming must be significantly large, clear and distinctive; sufficient evidence has now been gathered to demonstrate this phenomenon (b) useful as a formal term to the scientific community. In terms of (b), the currently informal term ‘Anthropocene’ has already proven highly useful to the global change and Earth System science research communities and thus will continue to be used. Its value as a formal geological time term to other communities continues to be discussed
The Anthropocene has emerged as a popular scientific term used by scientists, the scientifically engaged public and the media to designate the period of Earth’s history during which humans have a decisive influence on the state, dynamics and future of the Earth System. It is widely agreed that the Earth is currently in such a state. The term has also been used in a non-chronostratigraphic context to be an informal term to denote a broader interpretation of anthropogenic impact on the planet that is markedly diachronous, reaching back many millennia. In geology, such an interpretation is already encompassed by lithostratigraphy, in which the character of stratified rocks is based solely on their physical features and not by age. Such an interpretation represents a concept sharply distinct from the Anthropocene as a chronostratigraphic unit, though it can be complementary with it
Syvitski, J. et al. (in press). Extraordinary human energy consumption and resultant geological impacts beginning around 1950 CE initiated the proposed Anthropocene Epoch. Communications Earth & Environment. Zalasiewicz, J., Waters, C. and Williams, M. (in press). Chapter 31: The Anthropocene. In: Gradstein, F., Ogg, J., Schmitz, M. and Ogg, G. (eds.) A Geologic Time Scale 2020.
2019
Williams, M. et al. 2019. Underground metro systems: a durable geological proxy of rapid urban population growth and energy consumption during the Anthropocene. In Craig Benjamin, Esther Quaedakers and David Baker (Eds.) Anthropocene: The Routledge Handbook of Big History (Routledge Companions). Oxon: Taylor & Francis. Zalasiewicz, J., Gabbott, S.E. and Waters C.N. 2019. Chapter 23: Plastic Waste: how plastic has become part of the Earth’s geological cycle. In: Trevor M. Letcher and Dan A Vallero (eds.) Waste: A Handbook for Management, 2nd edition. Elsevier, New York, 443-452. Zalasiewicz, J. et al. 2019. A formal Anthropocene is compatible with but distinct from its diachronous anthropogenic counterparts: a response to WF Ruddiman’s ‘three flaws in defining a formal Anthropocene’. Progress in Physical Geography, 43(3): 319-333. Zalasiewicz, J, Waters, CN et al. (Eds.) (2019). The Anthropocene as a Geological Time Unit. CUP.The Anthropocene, a term launched into public debate by Nobel Prize winner Paul Crutzen, has been used informally to describe the time interval during which human actions have had a drastic effect on the Earth and its ecosystems, including anthropogenic climate change. This book presents the underpinning geological evidence for defining the Anthropocene as a geological epoch, written by the high-profile international team tasked with analysing its potential addition to the Geological Time Scale. It discusses Anthropocene stratigraphy and ongoing changes to the Earth system, including the climate, oceans and biosphere. The evidence for the Anthropocene is examined in detail, ranging from chemical signals arising from pollution, to physical changes to the landscape associated with urbanisation and biological changes associated with species invasion and extinctions. The scale, manner and rate of global environmental change is placed within the context of planetary processes and deep geological time, allowing the reader to appreciate the scale of human-driven change to the Earth system, and compare the global transition taking place today with major transitions in Earth history. Key aspects of the geological background are explained, providing an authoritative review of the Anthropocene for graduate students and academic researchers across a broad range of scientific, social science and humanities disciplines.
A new study coordinated by CU Boulder makes clear the extraordinary speed and scale of increases in energy use, economic productivity and global population that have pushed the Earth towards a new geological epoch, known as the Anthropocene. Distinct physical, chemical and biological changes to Earth's rock layers began around the year 1950, the research found.
Led by Jaia Syvitski, CU Boulder professor emerita and former director of the Institute of Alpine Arctic Research (INSTAAR), the paper, published today in Nature Communications Earth and Environment, documents the natural drivers of environmental change throughout the past 11,700 years--known as the Holocene Epoch--and the dramatic human-caused shifts since 1950. Such planetary-wide changes have altered oceans, rivers, lakes, coastlines, vegetation, soils, chemistry and climate.
"This is the first time that scientists have documented humanity's geological footprint on such a comprehensive scale in a single publication," said Syvitski, former executive director of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System, a diverse community of international experts from who study the interactions between the Earth's surface, water and atmosphere.
In the past 70 years, humans have exceeded the energy consumption of the entire preceding 11,700 years--largely through combustion of fossil fuels. This huge increase in energy consumption has then allowed for a dramatic increase in human population, industrial activity, pollution, environmental degradation and climate change.
The study is the result of work by the Anthropocene Working Group (AWG), an interdisciplinary group of scientists analyzing the case for making the Anthropocene a new epoch within the official Geological Time Scale, characterized by the overwhelming human impact on the Earth.
The word Anthropocene follows the naming convention for assigning geologically defined lengths of time and has come to embody the present time during which humans are dominating planetary-scale Earth systems.
In geological time, an epoch is longer than an Age but shorter than a Period, measured in tens of millions of years. Within the Holocene epoch, there are several Ages--but the Anthropocene is proposed as a separate Epoch within Earth's planetary history.
"It takes a lot to change the Earth's system," said Syvitski. "Even if we were to get into a greener world where we were not burning fossil fuels, the main culprit of greenhouse gases, we would still have a record of an enormous change on our planet."
Unambiguous markers of the Anthropocene
The 18 authors of the study compiled existing research to highlight 16 major planetary impacts caused by increased energy consumption and other human activities, spiking in significance around or since 1950.
Between 1952 and 1980, humans set off more than 500 thermonuclear explosions above ground as part of global nuclear weapons testing, which have forever left a clear signature of human-caused radionuclides--atoms with excess nuclear energy--on or near the surface of the entire planet.
Since about 1950, humans have also doubled the amount of fixed nitrogen on the planet through industrial production for agriculture, created a hole in the ozone layer through the industrial scale release of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), released enough greenhouse gasses from fossil fuels to cause planetary level climate change, created tens of thousands more synthetic mineral-like compounds than naturally occur on Earth and caused almost one-fifth of river sediment worldwide to no longer reach the ocean due to dams, reservoirs and diversions.
Humans have produced so many millions of tons of plastic each year since the middle of the 20th century that microplastics are "forming a near-ubiquitous and unambiguous marker of Anthropocene," according to the study.
Not all of these planetary level changes may define the Anthropocene geologically, according to Syvitski and her co-authors, but if present trends continue, they can lead to markers in the rock record that will.
Syvitski credits her time as director of INSTAAR from 1995 to 2007 for enabling her to bring together scientists from the different environmental disciplines needed for the study, including geology, biology, geography, anthropology and history.
In a similar way, she sees a need for people of different backgrounds and experiences around the world to come together to work toward solutions.
"We humans collectively got ourselves into this mess, we need to work together to reverse these environmental trends and dig ourselves out of it," said Syvitski. "Society shouldn't feel complacent. Few people who read the manuscript should come away without emotions bubbling up, like rage, grief and even fear."
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Co-authors of this publication include Colin Waters, Jan Zalasiewicz and Mark Williams, University of Leicester; John Day, Louisiana State University; John Milliman, College of William and Mary; Colin Summerhayes, Scott Polar Research Institute; Will Steffen, Australian National University; Alejandro Cearreta, University of the Basque Country -- UPV/EHU; Agnieszka Ga?uszka, Jan Kochanowski University; Irka Hajdas, ETH Zu?rich; Martin Head, Brock University; Reinhold Leinfelder, Freie Universitat Berlin; J. R. McNeill, Georgetown University; Clement Poirier, Normandie University; Neil Rose, University College London; William Shotyk, University of Alberta; and Michael Wagreich, University of Vienna.
The number of sea turtles spotted along the coasts of the UK and Ireland has declined in recent years, researchers say.
University of Exeter scientists studied records going back more than a century (1910-2018) and found almost 2,000 sea turtles had been sighted, stranded or captured. Recorded sightings increased dramatically in the 1980s and 1990s - possibly due to more public interest in conservation, and better reporting schemes. Numbers have dropped since 2000, but the reasons for this are unclear.
"Lots of factors could affect the changing of numbers of sea turtles sighted," said Zara Botterell, of the University of Exeter and Plymouth Marine Laboratory. "Climate change, prey availability and environmental disasters such as the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill could all influence turtle numbers and behaviour.
"However, sea turtle populations in the North Atlantic are largely stable or increasing, and the apparent decrease may represent reduced reporting rather than fewer turtles in our seas. One reason for this could be that fewer fishing boats are at sea now than in the past - and fishers are the most likely people to see and report turtles."
The most common turtles spotted off the UK and Ireland are leatherbacks - making up 1,683 of the 1,997 sightings since 1910. Leatherbacks are thought to be the only sea turtle species that "intentionally" visits these waters, with adults arriving in summer in search of their jellyfish prey.
Meanwhile, juvenile loggerheads (240 since 1910) and Kemp's ridley turtles (61) are more often spotted in winter - likely carried on currents and finding themselves stranded in cold waters.
There are seven sea turtle species in total, and the others are much rarer in UK and Irish waters. Only 11 green turtle sightings were found in the records (all from 1980 to 2016), while just one hawksbill (Cork, Ireland in 1983) and one olive ridley (Anglesey, Wales in 2016) have been recorded. The only species never recorded in UK or Irish waters is the flatback, which is only found around Northern Australia, Southern Indonesia and Southern Papua New Guinea.
Most of the recorded sightings of turtles in the UK and Ireland were along western and southern coasts. Of the 1,997 turtles sighted, 143 were "bycatch" (caught accidentally) in fishing lines, nets and ropes - and the large majority of these were released alive.
The study used the TURTLE database, operated by Marine Environmental Monitoring.
The research team thanked the many members of the public who have reported turtle sightings and strandings, and noted the "pivotal role" of the UK Cetacean Strandings Investigation Programme (CSIP) and Scottish Marine Animal Stranding Scheme (SMASS), funded by UK governments.
"We have been lucky to analyse this unique dataset that exists because Britain and Ireland are a real hotbed of engaged citizen science, where members of the public report their sightings in schemes supported by conservation charities and government bodies," said Professor Brendan Godley, who leads the Exeter Marine research group.
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The paper, published in the Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, is entitled: "Long-term insights into marine turtle sightings, strandings and captures around the UK and Ireland (1910-2018)."
Hesitancy about a COVID-19 vaccine is linked to beliefs about origin of the virus
IMAGE: FIGURE. PERCENTAGE OF PARTICIPANTS WHO RESPONDED "YES " TO THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THEY WOULD VACCINATE THEMSELVES AND THEIR CHILDREN FOR COVID-19 IN TURKEY (N= 3936) AND THE UK (N= 1088)... view more
CREDIT: DR GUL DENIZ SALALI
More than a third of people (34%) in Turkey and one sixth of people (17%) in the UK are 'hesitant' about a COVID-19 vaccine, according to a study by UCL and Dokuz Eylul University in Turkey.
The research, published in the journal Psychological Medicine, asked over 5,000 participants in Turkey and the UK about their willingness to vaccinate for a potential COVID-19 vaccine and beliefs on the origin of the novel coronavirus. The findings show concerning levels of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.
Lead author, Dr Gul Deniz Salali, an evolutionary anthropologist at UCL, said: "From an evolutionary point of view, natural selection should favour a bias towards making the least costly decision when there is uncertainty. This is why when people face a choice between taking a specific action or doing nothing, they sometimes prefer to do nothing. This cognitive bias, called the omission bias, may kick in when people make vaccination decisions."
The researchers examined the factors that are associated with acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine. One of the key factors that explained the probability of vaccine acceptance was a person's belief on the origin of the novel coronavirus.
Odds of vaccine acceptance were 26% higher in Turkey and 63% higher in the UK if a person believed in the natural origin, compared to those who were not sure about the virus origin. In Turkey, participants who believed in the artificial origin of the virus (i.e. SARS-Cov-2 was human-made) were 54% more likely to be vaccine-hesitant.
The research is led by Dr Salali and conducted in collaboration with a social psychology doctoral researcher, Mete Sefa Uysal at Dokuz Eylul University in Turkey.
The study reported several other behavioural and demographic factors that influenced vaccination and origin beliefs. Participants who had higher levels of pandemic related anxieties, such as being more worried about catching or passing on the virus, were more likely to accept COVID-19 vaccination. Compared to women, men in Turkey were more likely to accept a COVID-19 vaccine and believe in the natural origin of the virus.
Dr Salali said "From an evolutionary perspective, emotions can be seen as detectors helping us to avoid death or promote reproduction, especially under uncertainty. The positive correlation between COVID-19 related anxiety and vaccine acceptance can be rooted in the adaptive function of anxiety in decreasing mortality risk."
"Because women are more likely to take healthcare decisions for their children, they may also be more likely to seek out information about vaccines and be exposed to online anti-vaccination content. Moreover, women score higher on disgust sensitivity which is associated with vaccine hesitancy."
Much research effort is focused on developing an effective vaccine for combatting COVID-19. Vaccine development itself, however, will not be enough given that a sufficient amount of people will need to be vaccinated for widespread immunity. The study findings point at a concerning level of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, especially in Turkey, and suggest that wider communication of the scientific consensus on the origin of the novel coronavirus with the public may help future campaigns targeting COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.
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Scientists improve model of landslide-induced tsunami
MIPT researchers Leopold Lobkovsky and Raissa Mazova, and their young colleagues from Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University have created a model of landslide-induced tsunamis that accounts for the initial location of the landslide body. Reported in Landslides, the model reveals that tsunami height is affected by the coastal slope and the position of the land mass before slipping. The highest and most devastating waves result from onshore landslide masses. This realization will make future predictions of tsunamis more accurate, as well as providing deeper insights into past events.
The recent decades have seen unusually large tsunamis that had on-shelf sources and were not always accompanied by seismic events. Instead, the underlying cause may be a fully or partially underwater landslide.
Researchers come up with models to predict wave runup onto the shore following a landslide on an underwater slope. The challenging part is to account for the nonlinear nature of wave runup and rundown, as well as the complex shelf zone geometry. Another important factor at the heart of the models is the technique used to compute landslide mass movement.
A number of landslide-induced tsunami models have been developed, with two of them used the most. The so-called rigid-block models assume a solid state perspective on the motion of the landslide, with shallow-water equations governing the generation of surface water waves. Models of the other type -- referred to as viscoplastic -- rely on shallow-water equations to describe both surface wave generation and landslide movement.
Despite a number of refinements accounting for some features of landslide mass movement, the models have so far remained hydrodynamic in their nature. This means they are not helpful for analyzing the detailed structure of the landslide body or the characteristics of its constituents during the slip. But unless the actual physical properties of the landslide mass are considered, modeling its movement is problematic.
The study reported in this story employs an elastoplastic model presented in 2000 by Igor Garagash and Leopold Lobkovsky. It accounts for the detailed structure of the landslide body and the mechanical characteristics of the land mass constituents during the slip, as well as incorporating the processes occurring in the landslide body. The model implementation in the study relied on the programming code called FLAC 3D, which enables calculations under an explicit finite-difference scheme for solving three-dimensional problems of continuum mechanics.
The researchers found that wave runup onto the shore varied considerably depending on the initial position of the landslide body on the shelf slope, even when the other parameters were fixed.
"In contrast to other models, where the tsunami wave climbs the original coastal slope, here the slope surface is continuously transformed during the landslide motion," study co-author Raissa Mazova from MIPT explained. "In other words, at each moment of time, the tsunami runup occurs onto a new surface of the coastal slope, which leads to a complex displacement of the shoreline. Such an effect has not been obtained before, and it is impossible to obtain within the framework of the movement of a landslide as a solid body or within the framework of a viscous model."
The role of the sediment layer on the slope also proved substantial. The numerical simulation predicts maximum runup on the slope for tsunamis induced by landslide masses initially located on a dry shore.
"Rather than attempting to implement a novel methodology for calculating a landslide model, we used a familiar model, introducing additional boundary conditions," commented Leopold Lobkovsky, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the head of the MIPT Laboratory of Geophysical Research of the Arctic and Continental Margins of the World Ocean. "Our findings demonstrate that shoreline dynamics significantly depend on the initial location of the landslide body, with the shoreline point potentially shifting. This feature may enable us to infer some information about the location of the submarine landslide by solving the inverse problem after a tsunami has taken place."
"However, the inverse problem is fairly difficult to solve, even when determining the location of the seismic source of a tsunami, and it is not always possible to achieve adequate results. That said, we have already begun a study to that end, and hope to estimate the locations of the landslides and gain insights into their nature," the researcher added.
