Ecuador chooses its economic future in presidential runoff
By Alexandra Valencia 

4/10/2021

© Reuters/SANTIAGO ARCOS The second round of presidential election in Ecuador

QUITO (Reuters) -Ecuadoreans voted in a presidential runoff on Sunday to decide whether to maintain the pro-market policies of the last four years or return to the socialism of the preceding decade as the Andean country seeks to revive its stagnant economy.

© Reuters/STRINGER Second round of the presidential election in Ecuador

Left-wing economist Andres Arauz won the first round of the election in February, garnering almost 33% of the vote, on promises of generous cash handouts and a resumption of the socialist policies of his mentor, former President Rafael Correa.

Arauz's rival, banker and third-time presidential candidate Guillermo Lasso, is promising to create jobs through foreign investment and financial support for the agricultural sector. Lasso won just shy of 20% of the first-round ballots.

Pollsters say the results will hinge on a relatively high percentage of undecided voters.

"At the last minute I decided on Lasso, I think he is the only option," said Margarita Alvarado, 42, a manicurist voting at a school in Quito. "I don't want to go back to the arrogance, to the corruption, to the handouts of the past decade."

The elections council said the vote was proceeding without incident and that citizens were respecting social distancing measures meant to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Results are expected on Sunday night. The new president will take office on May 24.

The oil-exporting nation's economy was already weak due to low crude prices when the coronavirus outbreak started. The pandemic has pushed a third of the population into poverty and left half a million people unemployed.

President Lenin Moreno, who did not seek re-election, imposed painful austerity measures as part of a $6.5 billion financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund, but was unable to kick-start the economy.

© Reuters/SANTIAGO ARCOS The second round of presidential election in Ecuador

Indigenous activist Yaku Perez, who narrowly lost out to Lasso for a slot in the runoff, is calling on supporters to spoil their ballots to protest what he called electoral fraud in the first round.

© Reuters/SANTIAGO ARCOS The second round of presidential election in Ecuador

"I don't trust either of the candidates, they have both been corrupted by the usual political parties," said Mirella Parraga, 43, a homemaker, after voting null at a polling station in central Guayaquil, the country's biggest city.

"I don't want to give my vote to someone who will make the situation in this country worse."

Arauz, 36, has offered to give $1,000 to a million families as soon as he takes office, as well as provide benefits to young people such as free internet access.

His plans are being closely watched by foreign investors who hold Ecuadorean bonds, some of whom have expressed concerns about heavy spending plans in the face of the government's delicate finances.

Lasso has tried to soften his conservative image by promising to fight discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and boost protection of animal rights.

Both candidates are calling on supporters to "take care of the votes" and denounce irregularities on voting day and during the vote tallying process.

(Reporting by Alexandra Valencia; Additional reporting by Yury Garcia; Writing by Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Paul Simao and Daniel Wallis)

'You cannot claim any more:' Russia seeks bigger piece of Arctic Ocean seabed

In a statement, a spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada said Canada "remains firmly committed to exercising in full its sovereign rights in the Arctic" according to international law.

IQALUIT, Nunavut — Russia wants to stretch out imaginary lines on the ocean floor — and below it — and that has one northern security expert worried about consequences for other Arctic countries like Canada.

 

© Provided by The Canadian Press

Last week, Russia filed a submission to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf to extend a claim to the Arctic Ocean seabed.

The UN still has to review the submission but, if it's approved, Russia would have exclusive rights to resources in the seabed and below it, but not in the water.

The new submission would push Russia's claim all the way up to Canada's exclusive economic zone, an area 200 nautical miles from the coastline, in which Canadians have sole rights to fish, drill and pursue other economic activities.

Philip Steinberg, a political geography professor at the University of Durham in the United Kingdom, estimates Russia's submission expands its original claim by about 705,000 square kilometres.

Robert Huebert, a political science professor at the University of Calgary, said Russia's request gets as close to Canada's 200-mile limit as possible.

"This is a maximalist submission. You cannot claim any more," said Huebert, an Arctic security and defence analyst with the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies.

Countries have sovereignty over their zones but can submit scientific evidence to the UN to claim control over the soil and subsoil of the extended continental shelf.

Russia's amended submission overlaps with those from Canada and Denmark, but does not extend into the north of Alaska.

"In effect, they’re claiming the entire Arctic Ocean as their continental shelf in regards to where their Arctic comes up against Canada’s and Denmark's." Huebert said.

The claims from Canada, Denmark (on behalf of Greenland), and Russia already overlap at the North Pole, but the amended claim goes beyond that, Huebert said.

"We haven’t seen a country before that’s extended over its neighbours. Here’s a situation where they’re claiming the entire Canadian and Danish continental shelf as part of their continental shelf."

Huebert noted there have been recent reports of an increased Russian military presence on the Ukrainian border over the last two weeks.

"If the Russians reinvigorate the conflict with Ukraine, that is going to spill into all of this." he said.

“I don’t think anyone should assume that Russia will do anything less than pursue its maximum foreign policy interests."

Whitney Lackenbauer, a professor at Trent University who specializes in circumpolar affairs, disagrees.

"Russia is playing by the rules. And for those of us who are concerned about Russia’s flouting of the rules-based order, I actually take a great deal of comfort in seeing Russia go through the established process in this particular case," Lackenbauer said.

He believes Russia's submission signals eventual talks between the three countries to determine the limits of their continental shelves.

"Setting out to negotiate where the outermost limits would be was something that was always in the cards," Lackenbauer said.

"I’m not worried about Russia’s actions as an Arctic coastal state seeking to determine the outermost limits of its extended continental shelf."

Nor is he concerned about potential conflict, since Russia has submitted the required scientific evidence.

"You can’t sit on a continental shelf and claim squatter’s rights to it."

In a statement, a spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada said Canada "remains firmly committed to exercising in full its sovereign rights in the Arctic" according to international law.

The statement also said Russia's revised outer limit "does not establish new rights for Russia over the newly created overlap areas."

It said Canada is studying Russia’s revised claim on its outer limits to prepare an appropriate response.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 11, 2021.

___

This story was produced with the financial assistance of the Facebook and Canadian Press News Fellowship

Emma Tranter, The Canadian Press

Lake Baikal: The bitter battle over tourism at Russia's 'Sacred Sea'
Lake Baikal, Russia's 'Sacred Sea,' has been a lifeline for inhabitants of southern Siberia for thousands of years, thanks to its pristine water and rich fauna.

© Provided by CNN

© CNN Olkhon Island

The gigantic ancient lake, bigger than all of the Great Lakes of North America combined, encompasses about 23% of the planet's freshwater reserves and is home to over 2,000 species.

It is also the site of a bitter battle between the state, residents, and environmentalists trying to strike a balance between a population dependent on tourism and mass development infringing on a fragile ecosystem.

'It can't hold more people'

On seeing Baikal for the first time, it's hard to believe it's a lake. The crescent-shaped Baikal -- 400 miles long and a mile deep -- completely freezes in the winter, creating a mirror-like surface of clear ice with no horizon in sight.

The stillness of nature and swathing silence, only disrupted by low-pitched groans of cracking ice, is overwhelming. But that serenity is getting harder to find these days, as swarms of tourists encroach ever further.

From dusk till dawn, local drivers race on a makeshift ice highway to get their groups to the next scenic spot at the lake's biggest island, Olkhon, before others take over.

© CNN Vitaly Ryabtsev

A man in a neon-colored snowboarding suit spreads his arms to pose for a picture near a rock formation: an Instagram hit dubbed Dragon's Tail. A group of women a few feet back yell at him to get out of the way, furious he cut the line and blocked the view.

While visitors take selfies, guides gather to divide up areas of clear ice, the tourists' most sought-after backdrop.

In the last decade, Baikal has become Russia's biggest tourism sensation, especially among travelers from Asia, with visitor numbers growing from hundreds of thousands to almost 2 million in 2019, according to official data.

Even amid the coronavirus pandemic, the Russian government encouraged domestic travel to boost the economy, and this winter, the numbers flocking to Baikal doubled compared to previous seasons.

The infrastructure, however, is unprepared for this influx. Most areas lack the basic necessities -- such as centralized sewage and treatment facilities -- necessary to cope with mass tourism.

Despite that, illegal hotels have sprung up here -- aided by crippling corruption and lack of oversight -- bypassing environmental assessments, driving up real estate prices and forcing out locals. An investigation resulted in charges against a local official in 2020, and regional prosecutors periodically crack down on illegal construction, shutting down multi-room hotels registered as private houses. Few are being demolished, however.

© CNN Construction ruins from an illegal hotel

Places like the village of Listvyanka -- on a narrow strip of land sandwiched between the lake and a mountain -- welcome visitors with half-constructed hotels and crooked storefronts nesting on top of each other.

"What we have as a result is pollution. All this waste water falls into the cesspool and from there goes directly into Baikal," said environmentalist Vitaly Ryabtsev, pointing to a massive yellowish stain on a frozen river in Listvyanka, right where it flows into the lake.

Ryabtsev, who has spent the past 40 years trying to preserve Baikal, says he doesn't recognize the place anymore, largely because humans have driven out entire species of animals in a matter of a couple of decades.

"This is not the place for mass tourism," Ryabtsev said. "I'd say that the most important measure would be to impose a ban on the further construction of hotels and tourist centers, at least until the existing tourist facilities are put in order."

The results of unregulated human activity are not just an eyesore -- they've had a very real impact on the lake's dwellers.

Around a decade ago, scientists with the local branch of the Limnological Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences noticed some odd changes along the shoreline. Spirogyra, a kind of algae that is not typically found in Baikal, began to grow next to some of the most popular tourist spots and spread fast.

© CNN Waste water in Listvyanka

The scientists quickly saw the algae suck out the life out of other living creatures, harming organisms responsible for cleansing Baikal's water and covering its bed with green slime.

In just a few years, spirogyra covered most of the lake's bed near places like Listvyanka, prompting the experts to conclude its appearance was a direct result of unfiltered sewage being dumped from new properties.

"This alga is like a parasite in a human body, and its massive growth is a clear sign of the disease in this great lake's ecosystem," Oleg Timoshkin, a hydrobiologist with the Limnological Institute, said in a lecture.

© CNN

He and his team worry that huge parts of Baikal will be affected if the process accelerates, jeopardizing the lake's purity.

Video: 'There is not enough space': Welcome to a town that many say can't take on more people (CNN)

A heritage site under threat

For Russians, Baikal has long been a part of their national identity and a source of pride. In 1996, the lake was designated a UNESCO World Heritage Site because of its unique flora and fauna and "outstanding value to humanity."

© CNN Waste containers at the Baikalsk Pulp and Paper Mill

Russian President Vladimir Putin called Baikal's preservation "a government priority" after a 2017 visit to address pollution issues.

But like many other heritage sites, Baikal is facing an array of environmental threats, and some locals question if Russia is prioritizing tourism revenues over conservation.

Last New Year's Eve, Russian environmentalists woke to an unwelcome gift as the authorities issued new legislation rolling back some key protections for the lake.

The international coalition Rivers without Boundaries, which took part in a year-long discussion with the state about its proposals, said it was shocked by the eventual legislation. Among other concerns, it allows development in previously untouched areas within Baikal's municipal zones.

"We see that our government, instead of restricting anthropogenic activity around Baikal, moves in a completely different direction," said the group's ecologist, Alexander Kolotov. "All recent legislation aims to weaken its environmental protection status."

The group, together with Greenpeace, sent a petition to UNESCO, arguing that Baikal's protections have been significantly weakened due to "consistent lobbying efforts" from companies looking to expand their businesses around the lake.

A large part of Baikal falls under the jurisdiction of the Irkutsk region. In a 2020 government report, the regional tourism body outlined measures to reduce the negative impact of tourism on the environment. But the same report also said "the presence of special environmental restrictions" was a "systematic" problem hindering the tourism industry.

Russia's largest bank, the state-owned Sberbank, is also spearheading an ambitious investment program aiming to build more hotels around Baikal and attract more than 3 million tourists a year by 2024.

The new regulations have sent ripples through local communities divided over the benefits and dangers of the tourism boom.

Gala Sibiryakova moved away from overcrowded Listvyanka over 15 years ago and settled in the remote village of Khuzhir on Olkhon Island, which has a current population of around 1,600.

She remembers Khuzhir to be a quiet place, where locals lived at one with nature and enjoyed unobscured views of majestic Baikal from their small houses. That soon changed.

"All this development, construction on all the corners we used to go and loved taking pictures of once -- now all of these places are fenced off [by hotels]," Sibiryakova says while walking a pack of white Samoyed dogs. "And the saddest thing is that we used to drink the very tasty Baikal water, but now we cannot drink it; it is no longer clean."

For Sibiryakova, the changes tourism brought into her community are also personal. Her husband Fedor is a native Buryat, belonging to one of the two largest indigenous groups in Siberia. Their eldest daughter is one of the very few people on Olkhon who can still speak and write in the native language.

The most sacred place on Olkhon is the Shaman Rock, where many come to make wishes and shamans perform rituals following spiritual practices linking the power of nature and spirits. For a long time no one was allowed close to the rock, but now tour guides have set up portable toilets around it to cater to tourists.

"Because of this tourist boom, the land became so expensive, and often locals could not compete with Moscow and foreign entrepreneurs, with Chinese entrepreneurs," she said. "So we had this displacement of the indigenous people, the local culture disappeared along with local traditions and customs."

At the same time, tourism has undeniably become a source of income for many on Olkhon, especially since the local fish factory was shut down and fishing outlawed.

Anna, a street vendor in Khuzhir who refused to give her last name, said she disagreed with the "green" activists and welcomed the easing of restrictions.

"We had nothing here just 20 years ago, and now we have electricity, internet, and a steady stream of income. If that's all taken away, what are we going to do? Where will we work?"

In 2019, several hundred Khuzhir residents took to the streets to protest their village's incorporation into the lake's existing national reserve zone, worried they'd have to give up their land and businesses because of stricter regulations. Many of them have now welcomed the relaxation of restrictions, hoping it will ease the burden of bureaucratic hurdles.

Ryabtsev said the conflict between locals shocked by the impacts of mass tourism and those relying on it to survive has gotten so bad that he now avoids the topic in conversations with Olkhon locals.

Sibiryakova believes the anti-green sentiment stems from misinformation.

"People were afraid they would be evicted and left with nothing, so they came to protest without really understanding the laws," she said. "For a long time you couldn't build a private house but gigantic hotels for some reason had been allowed to build, so they thought it would help, but locals are not better off now."

"I think there just should be some balance. Of course, you can't totally abolish tourism, Baikal is beautiful, and people need to see it; it would be wrong to deprive them of it," Sibiryakova added. "But now, for such a huge number of people, there is just not enough space."

Baikal's ticking bomb

Russia has tapped into many of its natural reserves for profit, and its history with Baikal is no exception.

In the 1960s, the Soviet government set up Baikalsk Paper and Pulp Mill, which specialized in pulp chemical bleaching, a process known to cause significant environmental damage if its byproducts are released in waterways.

Its construction is believed to have sparked the Soviet ecological movement, with activists working for decades to shut down the plant considered the lake's main polluter.

The Russian government long conceded the mill was polluting the lake, but the fear of unrest in Baikalsk, a town born along with the factory and fully dependent on it, kept it alive for years.

The outrage over the harmful industry carried over into modern Russia, and the plant was eventually shut down in 2013, but ecological reasons hardly drove the decision. The mill amassed debts, and the business was deemed unviable.

The huge dilapidated buildings now stand silent and abandoned, but the danger to Baikal, however, remains. According to the Russian state news agency TASS, the factory's reservoirs have over half a century accumulated at least 6.5 million tons of dangerous toxic waste -- contained to this day in rusty tanks and man-made ponds.

Scientists worry that since its abandonment, the mill has become even more dangerous to Baikal, with polluted waste water stretching two kilometers into the lake, compared to about 200 meters seven years ago.

"As soon as the storage ponds overflow, streams run into Baikal," Alexander Suturin, a head scientist with the Limnological Institute of the Russian Academy of Science, told TASS. "Secondly, there is a large amount of accumulated waste water sitting under the site. When the plant was operating, the water was pumped out and discharged to treatment facilities, now there are no treatment facilities, but the contamination remains and is leaking into Baikal."

Local authorities have made efforts to contain tanks or even remove waste water altogether, swapping several contractors, but have so far struggled to find a long-term solution. The latest subcontractor has been tasked with eliminating the waste by 2024, state media reported.

Environmentalists like Ryabtsev and Kolotov worry that Russia's inconsistent environmental policy won't get to grips with what the past few decades of human activity have already done to unique places like Baikal, which after more than 25 million years of existence could be on a path of irrevocable decline.

"We are extremely concerned about this invasion into untouched lands and the UNESCO heritage sites," Kolotov said. "Russia signed up to protect these sites, but in reality ... it turns out these sites sometimes need protection even from those who were supposed to protect them."

A California city is paying its homeless population to clean up their tent sites as the state fights a homelessness crisis

insider@insider.com (Katie Canales) 

4/10/2021
 

© Provided by Business Insider Echo Park Lake Thursday, March 25, 2021 in Los Angeles, CA. Francine Orr / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

The California town of Elk Grove is paying its homeless population $20 gift cards to clean tent sites.

The year-long program has saved the city thousands of dollars.
California has long been racked by a homelessness crisis, exacerbated by a housing shortage.

Officials in the California town of Elk Grove are paying those who are homeless in its city to keep their encampment sites clean, according to CNN.


Elk Grove, which sits about 15 miles south of Sacramento, appears to have started the pilot program about a year ago. The city's housing and public services manager, Sarah Bontrager, told CNN that the public works team distributes trash bags and visits the homeless encampment every two weeks. If they arrive and those living there have trash bagged, she said they are eligible for $20 gift cards to grocery stores.

Per the report, whoever receives the gift cards can use them on anything except cigarettes and alcohol, and most end up using the credit on food or personal hygiene products.

Bontrager said the most common complaint they receive regarding the city's homeless population is the volume of trash. The city is "saving thousands of dollars" by paying those who are homeless to clean their encampments instead of using public workers, she told CNN.

Bontrager said it costs $1,000 in labor and equipment each time public workers have to clean up an encampment site, per CNN. But since the program stood up, the city has only used $10,000 of a $15,000 budget.

California has long endured a crushing homelessness crisis, exacerbated by a housing shortage and a lack of affordable living. More than a quarter of the unhoused population in the US is comprised of the state's homeless community, according to a March 2020 report from The Guardian.

California has the third-largest homeless population in the US, with over 128,000 people living unhoused in the state, per CBS Los Angeles.

Blockchain could play an important role in future agriculture and food security

Global food supply chains proved brittle during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading for calls to boost the resilience of global food supply chains through improved efficiency in production, distribution and consumption of nutritious food. How could technologies like blockchain that provide data to producers, distributors and consumers be part of the solution?  

© (Shutterstock) Technological advances can help manage more efficient, sustainable and accountable farming practices.

Big data applications may present opportunities to address inefficiencies from farm to table and improve global food security.

Blockchain, a linked decentralized database that stores auditable data throughout entire supply chains, may change the game for food producers across the globe.

With global-scale food systems such as seafood, nearly 40 per cent of which is traded globally, data transparency and traceability through technologies like blockchain are important for socially and environmentally conscious decision making and to facilitate trust among stakeholders.
Gathering information

Blockchain technologies can be used to consolidate information on the quality of the seed, track how crops grow and record the journey once it leaves the farm. In Canada, for example, Grain Discovery - an online blockchain marketplace - is an example of data being leveraged by those involved in the food system to grow and market globally competitive crops.

The data could enhance transparency in supply chains by providing immutable records from production to consumption. Such data have the potential to facilitate information transfer throughout every step of the supply chain. And if blockchains are implemented with proper validation, it can prevent illegal and unethical production and distribution that undermines sustainability and community food security.

For example, Wal-Mart, Tsinghua University and IBM’s chain-based food traceability platforms have aided in tracing pork and mango in China and U.S. respectively, with positive results in creating trust and transparency in the supply chains.

This transparency also means consumers could make informed decisions to protect vulnerable producers and the environment. Access to product data may allow consumers to reward producers who employ good practices, such as rural smallholder farmers and fishermen who are among the most food-insecure groups.
Tracking pathways

Currently, there is little evidence supporting the claim that blockchain and big data technologies are contributing to global food security. Even though the average farm is projected to generate 4.1 million data points by 2050, up from 190,000 data points in 2014, increases in global food security have not been impressive.

Part of the challenge is how blockchains have been implemented until now. The corporate control of blockchains and big data platforms could even undermine food security.

For example, IBM and Walmart have teamed up to track produce from farm to fork. Producers and processors along the supply chain are required to input information into IBM’s blockchain for the process to be entirely transparent to consumers.

However, there is skepticism around IBM’s definition of blockchain, as privately owned blockchains can be tampered with more easily and are less secure. This is because security of private blockchains are still highly dependent on permissions and controls set by private organizations.

Corporate-owned, centralized databases of information do not meet the traditional definition of a blockchain, which is based on democracy and trust.

Traditional blockchains are decentralized and democratized in order to ensure trust between users. Corporate control of supply chain information could also leave out small-scale farmers that lack the required size, scale and technological know-how to participate. This division between large and small food producers can contribute to global food insecurity, and many researchers believe that small, as well as large farms, are required to feed the world’s growing population.
Data and food futures

Before blockchain and other data technologies can help address food security, a number of challenges need to be addressed.

The implementation of blockchains must be be decentralized to include small farmers and rural people. This will enable sustainable and equitable food systems and allow consumers to make informed decisions.

However, as blockchains place additional responsibility on the end users, challenges such as limited digital literacy among the world’s poor and infrastructure constraints may undermine true decentralization.

Also, they must be integrated into broader food security promotion strategies to make them sensitive to social and environmental values critical to tackling food insecurity among diverse groups.

The untapped potential of harnessing big data through a transparent and decentralized food distribution system may support sustainable food production and provide accountability for food production.

This is crucial for efficient food systems and food security in the future. But it is important that these innovations are deployed equitably so that all stakeholders along the value chain may benefit.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Evan Fraser Professor in the Dept. of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Guelph, 

Abdul-Rahim Abdulai, PHD Student, Geography, Environment and Geomatics/Arrell Food Institute, University of Guelph, 

Sarah Marquis, PhD Student, Environmental Sustainability, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa, 

Carling Bieg, PhD Candidate, Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph 

Abdul-Rahim Abdulai receives funding from the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph and the International Development Research Centre, Canada.

Carling Bieg receives funding from NSERC.

Evan Fraser receives funding from the Canadian Government, the Ontario Government and George Weston Ltd. He is affiliated with the Maple Leaf Centre for Action on Food Security.

Sarah Marquis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

The US has a chance fix its broken climate risk disclosure system

Tim McDonnell 

QUARTZ

4/10/2021

© Provided by Quartz Floods and other climate change impacts pose risks to global supply chains, but it's often difficult for companies to get a good forecast of their risk.

Government and investors are quickly moving to quantify the risks posed by climate change and make that part of their financial decision-making. But many companies remain unsure how to measure the threat of climate change to their business, and whether or how to report those risks to investors and the public.

Financial regulators in the US are grappling with that question now. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) opened a 90-day public comment period in March that will inform the first update to federal climate risk disclosure guidelines in a decade. Shareholder groups and asset managers like BlackRock (CEO Larry Fink wrote in February that “climate risk is investment risk”) are pressuring boardrooms to improve corporate transparency around climate risks. Without better disclosure, corporate managers have little incentive to avoid plowing capital into assets and supply chains that could collapse after natural disasters and dump massive costs on insurers, investors, customers, and the global economy.

Right out of the gate, some climate scientists are raising a major red flag. Politico reported in March that the computer models used to forecast physical climate risk—where, when, and how severely impacts like drought and sea level rise are most likely to appear—aren’t very good. Scientists contend they fail to accurately answer crucial questions for investors such as which supplies chains will face shortages or which coastal warehouses are most prone to flooding.

But scientists and federal regulators now have a chance to make better tools available to more companies. In the meantime, more companies should be able to start with information they already have—or lose credibility with investors and face legal repercussions.

Why it’s so hard to measure a company’s climate risk

Companies face two kinds of climate change risk. Transitional risk—how a company’s business model could be disrupted by the global shift away from fossil fuels—can be analyzed through carbon footprint accounting, said Lihuan Zhou, a finance researcher at the World Resources Institute (WRI). The more emissions a company emits, the greater risk it faces from economic opposition to fossil fuels (oil companies and airlines, for example, are at high transitional risk).

Physical risk is much harder to pin down. Assessing the climate risk to facilities or supply chains requires complex modeling of the interaction of geophysical forces such as temperature and ocean currents for decades into the future. Predicting likely weather phenomena in a location is even harder. In a Feb. analysis in the journal Nature Climate Change, Australian climate scientists concluded that while the gold-standard computer models developed to evaluate scientific theories about the climate may reliably predict long-term global trends, the hyper-local predictions needed for a rigorous assessment of financial risk are beyond their reach. The difference of just a degree or two of latitude, or a few inches of sea-level rise, for example, may put a company’s warehouse in, or out, of harm’s way.

The tricky business of measuring climate risk

Nevertheless, a number of private consulting firms will, for a few hundred thousand dollars, produce custom physical climate risk evaluations for a company or government agency. These firms use proprietary models whose underlying data and internal assumptions are not always clear to prospective end users or subject to independent scientific scrutiny.

Their forecasts, says Upmanu Lall, a senior scientist at Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, should be taken with a big grain of salt. “Most climate scientists in academia will put a lot of caveats on every projection on climate change,” Lall said. “But by the time [a projection] gets to these companies, all the caveats get thrown away.”

Nonprofits like the Carbon Disclosure Project and the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures have also laid out voluntary risk disclosure guidelines that companies can follow to measure and disclose risk on their own. But a Feb. report by Zhou and his colleagues at WRI found numerous discrepancies between these guidelines, including which hazards are addressed (sea level rise, usually; extreme precipitation, sometimes; hail, never) and how they suggest companies measure them. That’s a problem, Zhou said, because “especially if we want companies to disclose this information to investors, it needs to be comparable.”

Rich Sorkin, CEO of the risk assessment firm Jupiter, said in an email that the company stands by its models, which were developed in consultation with independent academic experts, and is “committed to accessible, transparent, useful, relevant, and credible information to all our partners and customers.” But he agrees that standards for climate risk disclosure are still lacking: “The metrics of quality, the form that is relevant, actionable and easy to use, and the pathway to affordability are all emergent and evolving in the early days.”

Make the scientific literature accessible to companies

The path to better climate risk disclosure, Zhou said, starts with turning scientific jargon into language the corporate sector understands. A good model is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations-supported group of leading global climate scientists. Every few years, it produces a major summary of the latest research. IPCC reports are the most authoritative source on projected climate impacts, and they always contain a summary of their findings designed for policymakers—but not one for the private sector, leaving companies to parse through hundreds of pages of dense scientific text and data on their own. The IPCC and other research groups should do more to make the business-relevant parts of that data available through free public resources like WRI’s Resource Watch, he said.

“The academic literature is there, but not in formats that companies are comfortable with or can access easily,” he said.

That task will be easier if the SEC provides more clarity about which, and how much, data a company needs to disclose on its risks, said Madison Condon, a professor of environmental law at Boston University who co-authored a Feb. report on the SEC’s climate oversight. The SEC could also give better guidance to companies in different sectors about which information—how much water a specific mine uses, for example—they can keep proprietary.

“What’s material in one industry may not be material in another,” Condon said. “The regulators have not figured out how to get investors the data they really need.”

The SEC should also set uniform standards for risk modeling, selecting the best parts of the existing voluntary guidelines, and ensure that they are kept up to date with the latest science, Zhou said. And the agency can step up its enforcement of whatever rules it settles on; since 2010, when it first issued guidelines for climate risk disclosure, its crackdown on shoddy reporting has amounted to just 58 finger-wagging “comment letters” to companies, according to Condon’s report. “They should press harder on companies ignoring obvious risks,” she said, possibly pursuing fraud charges for the worst offenders.

Acting now to head off corporate climate risk

Companies needn’t wait for the SEC to finish its guidelines. Even without precise long-term modeling, Condon said, many sectors like construction, manufacturing, and food and agriculture can identify physical assets at risk from worsening climate conditions. Managers have more incentive to tackle short-term risks than those decades away, she said. “You can do so much just with recent historical weather data to exposure latent risk to corporate supply chains,” she said. “Companies don’t need to hire a climate modeler to do that. Many aren’t prepared for risks that they can reasonably forecast using the back of an envelope.”

Emilie Mazzacurati, global head of climate solutions at the analytics firm Moody’s and a founder of Four Twenty Seven, a risk modeling agency acquired by Moody’s last year, said the agency is upfront with clients about the limits of global climate model forecasts, and uses historical data on storms, elevation, and hydrology to fill in local gaps. As modeling firms proliferate in the coming years, she said, they need to be transparent with the scientific community about their methodology.

“Cutting-edge advancements in representing future climate conditions should undergo a rigorous public peer-review process,” she said. “Further academic review and third-party audits of existing climate service provider methodologies would help strengthen the credibility of the climate services industry.”

Companies that do opt to work with modeling firms should ask questions about the model’s assumptions and data sources, and be prepared for forecasts that are framed as probabilities rather than certainties. Companies will also need to get comfortable being more transparent about their assets. The most important thing, Condon said, is for more companies to take climate risk seriously, and study it with whatever tools are available.

“The biggest concern is that we are unprepared,” she said, “and not thinking about climate risk at all.”

New infrastructure isn't seen as priority by Americans

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN 

4/10/2021

President Joe Biden is pushing his infrastructure bill, the American Jobs Plan. This bill strays from what has helped him maintain an approval rating above 50% so far during his presidency because, even though the plan polls fairly well, it's not clear that Americans actually think it's all that important.

PENNY PINCHING SELFISHNESS AVOIDING PREVENTATIVE MAINTANENCE FOR 50 YEARS

© Evan Vucci/AP President Joe Biden speaks during an event on the American Jobs Plan in the South Court Auditorium on the White House campus, Wednesday, April 7, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Numerous polls have asked Americans about their priorities and infrastructure comes out low.

Just 32% said improving the country's roads, bridges and public transportation systems should be a top priority for Biden and Congress, according to a January Pew Research Center poll. That ranked second to last among 19 items asked about in the poll. For comparison, strengthening the economy and dealing with the pandemic were first and second, respectively.

A January Monmouth University poll came to a similar finding. It tested 15 areas for the federal government to address, and a mere 17% said transportation and energy infrastructure was extremely important. That was dead last in the poll. Again, the pandemic and the economy were at or near the topic of the list.

Now, this isn't to say the infrastructure plan will necessarily hurt Biden's popularity. Right now, more Americans support than oppose the bill.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken last week showed that 45% backed the bill, while 27% opposed it. A lot of folks (28%) simply were undecided.

An average of polls on the topic does find support a bit higher, with 54% favoring the bill to 23% opposing it. Nearly a quarter of the electorate was neither in favor nor opposed.

A 54% opening favorability for a bill is good, but it's not close to the type of support Biden was getting for his coronavirus relief package. It's also about equal to Biden's overall job approval rating of around 55%.

Among these same pollsters, Biden's Covid relief bill was far more popular than he was, with an average of 66% support to 19% opposition, with just 15% undecided.

The higher number of undecideds in the infrastructure bill makes sense. Unlike with coronavirus relief, infrastructure is not at the top of most Americans' minds. The higher number of undecideds may also be an indication that opinions on the subject may be less entrenched than they were when it came to Biden's Covid relief bill.

Moreover, the data suggests that those who are undecided are disproportionately Republican. This could mean that opposition might jump up as Republicans speak out against the bill.

The good news for Biden is he may not need any GOP votes to pass his infrastructure package. Democrats control the House, and the Senate parliamentarian is of the belief that they could potentially use reconciliation (i.e. needing a simple majority of Senate votes) to pass future bills. If they are able to use it for the infrastructure bill, Democrats have the votes in the House and Senate, as long as they don't have any defections.

That's why it'll be important to watch more moderate Democratic senators to see whether they waver. The lack of import that most voters are putting on infrastructure could work to their advantage.

If most Americans aren't basing their votes on whether this infrastructure bill passes or not, there's likely a better chance that Democrats will toe the party line on a package important to the President.

Singh faces 2nd leadership review as NDP policy convention enters final day
CBC/Radio-Canada 1 hour ago

  

© Justin Tang/The Canadian Press NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is set to face his second leadership review today as the NDP's virtual policy convention enters its third and final day.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will stare down his second leadership review later today when more than 2,000 convention delegates decide whether they should trigger a leadership race within the party.

The NDP is gearing up for the final day of its virtual policy convention, which has been beset by technical glitches, missing accessibility services at times, and has been slowed by a flurry of points of order and points of privilege from delegates.

On Saturday, delegates passed a controversial resolution calling for Canada to suspend arms sales with Israel and impose sanctions on Israeli settlements deemed illegal under international law.

"The measures are similar to what human rights organizations have called for, and I think there is good merit in what they are calling for," Singh said Sunday on Rosemary Barton Live.

"If we want to get peace, it's going to require some pressure, and I think that's important," he said, when pushed by CBC chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton on whether he would adopt the resolution as a position of his party.

Other resolutions passed include a proposal to make long-term care part of Canada's health-care system and a pledge to support Indian farmers protesting that country's new agricultural laws.

On Sunday afternoon, Singh will deliver a speech to assembled delegates, which will be followed by a secret ballot vote to determine whether a leadership race should be called. If more than half of delegates vote in support of a race, an election must take place within a year.

Singh breezed through 2018 review

NDP deputy leader Alexandre Boulerice said Singh shouldn't be too worried ahead of today's review.

"The caucus is united. The feeling, the mood with the activists, the members, the volunteers, is quite good. There's no questioning of the leadership right now. We are ready to go with Jagmeet in an election any time."

In 2018, Singh coasted through his first review at the NDP's policy convention, with 90.7 per cent of delegates voting against holding a race.

Former leader Jack Layton obtained around or above 90 per cent during his reviews, similar to the outcome achieved during Tom Mulcair's first vote in 2013. Three years later with Mulcair still at the helm, more than half of party delegates voted in favour of a leadership election — an unprecedented result for a federal party leader.

While Boulerice feels assured of Singh's chances, he doesn't believe the leader — who handily won the party's top job in 2017 — should get too comfortable.

"His challenges are the challenges of a lot of federal leaders," Boulerice said.

"He needs to connect with areas of the country he knows a little bit less, maybe like the Maritimes ... to have good knowledge about the different realities."

Singh also needs to brush up on his French, Boulerice said. The MP holds the party's only seat in Quebec, a province where the NDP is hoping to make gains.

"He's generally good. But a couple of days without speaking French ... you can feel that."

Membership has strong opinions: Masse

Longtime Ontario MP Brian Masse said it's never good to assume someone will survive a leadership vote.

"If he's not [worried], then that's a problem. I don't think that it's something that he needs to dwell on ... but he has to be cognizant that we have a diverse membership that has strong opinions on a lot of different issues, and he's the person who represents the face of that at the end of the day."

Meanwhile, former NDP campaign manager Brad Lavigne said the NDP's overall performance throughout this minority, pandemic Parliament bodes well for Singh.

"He's led the caucus through a very difficult time in this country. He kept the focus on people and their needs with things like those relief programs," Lavigne said.

"The membership should be rewarding Mr. Singh with overwhelming support to continue on as leader."

Singh to address supporters before review

The NDP's push for pandemic supports is expected to factor heavily into the leader's speech on Sunday.

The leader is also expected to signal that the party is ready for a pandemic election should one be called.

The party cleared its multimillion-dollar campaign debt earlier this year and is prepared to spend up to $24 million for its next election run.

The NDP is currently facing criticism from some grassroots members for keeping 100 per cent of all Elections Canada campaign expense reimbursement, funds that usually go to candidates and benefit electoral district associations or ridings.

Liberal, NDP insiders weigh in on the battle to win the progressive vote

Raisa Patl  CBC 4/10/22021

  

© Sean Kilpatrick / Canadian Press NDP leader Jagmeet Singh meets

with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Parliament Hill in 2019.

As the Liberals and New Democrats staged duelling party policy conventions today, party insiders said they also signalled they're going to be battling each other over many of the same ideas — and voters.

Proposals to implement a universal basic income (UBI), to make the wealthy pay more in taxes and to create a national pharmacare program were just some of the overlapping progressive policy pitches both parties advanced this week as they looked ahead to their election platforms.

"I think it tells you that most of the country, and most of the thinking that's going on around the economy, is focusing on activist government solutions," David Herle, a longtime Liberal strategist and partner at The Gandalf Group, told CBC Radio's The House.

"That's where people's heads are and that's where the experts are in terms of looking at what kind of role government needs to play, whether it's in the provision of child care or greater income security for gig workers. This is post-pandemic."

NDP national director Anne McGrath told The House this isn't the first time Liberals have absorbed some of her party's ideas.

"There has been a history of the Liberals adopting and promoting some fairly progressive proposals, but then not necessarily delivering. And I think that that's really the job for Jagmeet Singh and the NDP in the next election campaign," McGrath said.

"The question, I think, for a lot of voters is going to be, 'Who is actually likely to do anything on these things?'"

Resolutions don't always dictate platforms

On Saturday, delegates at the Liberal convention endorsed resolutions on establishing UBI in Canada and creating a national pharmacare program, but rejected proposals to hike the capital gains tax and place an "inheritance tax" on assets over $2 million.

NDP delegates have yet to vote on UBI or pharmacare, but voted overwhelmingly Friday in favour of a resolution calling on Ottawa to ensure that "the wealthiest Canadians pay their fair share through a tax on wealth."

Passing a resolution does not necessarily mean that policy becomes part of a party's election platform.

"Some [issues] may make it into a platform for an election, whenever that election should be. If it doesn't make it into something in the immediate term, it doesn't get lost. It moves forward," Liberal Party president Suzanne Cowan told The House host Chris Hall in a separate interview.

"This is an ongoing discussion that takes place between conventions."
'The real competition is on the left'

Cowan also rejected the suggestion that progressive proposals wouldn't typically fall under her party's umbrella.

"I am not at all surprised that it is a progressive agenda because we are a progressive party," she said.

"So I think that ... these are Canadians priorities. I would not say that these are NDP issues that we are talking about now. These are our issues."

According to the CBC's Canada Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, the Liberals are leading with 35.8 per cent support nationwide. The Conservatives are in second with 29.8 per cent and the NDP is in third with 18.1 per cent.

Overlapping policies won't help either party, said Herle, who predicted the Conservatives will bump up their support and narrow the Liberals' lead.

"If the Conservatives are at a more normal number, then the NDP number ... becomes very damaging to Liberal chances of victory," he said. "So I actually do think that the real competition is on the left."

Herle and McGrath both said that while some party priorities dovetail, it's equally important to put forward distinct identities.

"It's important to point out the contrast with the Liberal government," McGrath said. "And so we have been working hard on making sure that that context is there."

RUN TO THE LEFT GOVERN FROM THE RIGHT
Liberal delegates endorse a universal basic income, reject capital gain tax hike
John Paul Tasker 

4/10/2021

© Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press The WE controversy that has been dogging the Liberals is expected to continue to follow Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government after Trudeau's appearance before a House of Commons committee Thursday…

Liberal delegates to the party's policy convention have overwhelmingly endorsed a resolution calling for the establishment of a universal basic income (UBI) in Canada, while also rejecting a call to hike the capital gains tax.

By a vote of 77 per cent, Liberal members on hand for the policy plenary today backed a call to permanently implement an income program similar to the Canada emergency response benefit (CERB), which kept millions of people afloat with monthly cheques during the first wave of the pandemic.

With 8.7 per cent of Canadians living below the poverty line and thousands more struggling to make ends meet, backers of this policy say a UBI would "ensure that communities at risk (including Indigenous peoples) are able to feel financially secure."

"Given the success of the CERB program, a UBI will assist seniors and low-income Canadians maintain an adequate standard of living, regardless of working status," the resolution reads.

Speaking to delegates assembled online, Alex Spears of the Young Liberals of Canada said a UBI would ensure the country's "strong and robust social safety net is adapted to the 21st century," adding that a program to send cheques to all families is "completely consistent with our values as a party."

He said the program would "put more cash in the hands of working Canadians and families" and could lift millions out of poverty.

"UBI is not a silver bullet and it ought to be done in conjunction with many other progressive policies, but it is a critical step," he said.

Would a UBI work?

The resolution does not say how such a costly program would be designed and implemented.

Few jurisdictions around the world have successfully enacted programs that make regular payments to all citizens without means tests or work requirements.

The parliamentary budget officer last week concluded that a universal basic income could almost halve Canada's poverty rate in just one year, but at a steep cost: $85 billion in 2021-22, rising to $93 billion in 2025-26.

While the resolutions are non-binding — the government ignored a 2018 convention vote to decriminalize all illicit drug use, for example — the policy endorsements could help inform future government spending and the Liberal Party's election platform.

The government has said it's preparing to spend up to $100 billion this year to kick start the post-pandemic economy even after it reported a record-high deficit of $381 billion in the last fiscal year.

While the idea of a UBI has gained traction in progressive circles — supporters maintain the massive price tag of such a program could be offset by dismantling existing provincial social welfare schemes — academics who study poverty reduction are split on its value.

A 529-page report authored by researchers at the University of British Columbia, Simon Fraser University and the University of Calgary concluded after a three-year investigation that a basic income for all is not the best way to address poverty and other social problems.

Instead, the report said, governments should boost existing social support programs for vulnerable groups through improved disability assistance, dental care programs and more money to help the working poor pay rent. A more targeted approach to help the disadvantaged, as opposed to a universal program like UBI, would do more to lift people out of poverty, the report concluded.

Conservative MP Ed Fast, the party's finance critic, said pursuing a UBI would be a "risky and unknown experiment that will leave millions more Canadians behind."

He said the Liberal Party is trying to "reimagine" the Canadian economy while the country is still struggling with the pandemic.

Video: Trudeau comments on U.S. treasury secretary's push for minimum global corporate income tax (Global News)

"The fact that UBI was supported at the convention this weekend is par for the course with Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. Instead of focusing on creating jobs, they are fixated on implementing risky, expensive and untested economic policies," Fast said.
Delegates endorse pharmacare, 'green new deal'

Liberal delegates also supported other progressive policies, such as the creation of a national pharmacare program and a "green new deal" to dramatically lower greenhouse gas emissions.

B.C. members backing the new green-friendly policies say Canada needs a "10-year national mobilization" plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 because "a changing climate threatens human life, healthy communities and critical infrastructure."

While this proposal is also light on specifics, its supporters are calling for an "urgent, transparent and inclusive consultation process" with workers, labour unions and businesses affected by the shift to cleaner fuel sources. Delegates agreed there should be a "just transition" for energy workers who will lose their jobs as a result of move to renewable energy.

Inheritance tax, capital gains hike rejected

At a time when all levels of government are searching for new revenue streams to offset the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic, Liberal delegates rejected a resolution from the party's Ontario chapter to hike the capital gains tax.

Currently, when an investment is sold — a stock, a mutual fund or any one of a number of other assets — 50 per cent of any increase in value is taxed as income.

For example, if a person buys a share in a publicly traded company for $20 and sells it for $40 at a later date, then $10 will be added to a person's income for tax purposes; the other $10 earned goes untaxed.

This preferential tax treatment is designed to encourage people to make investments to drive economic growth and provide companies with easy access to capital. Critics maintain this unfairly benefits the rich.

The Ontario chapter proposed reducing the capital gains tax exemption to zero — meaning all investment gains would be taxed as income.

As part of the same proposal, the Ontario chapter pitched an "inheritance tax" on all assets over $2 million. That proposal did not specify the rate at which these assets should be taxed, or how and when such a system would take effect. Delegates rejected the idea along with the suggestion to increase the capital gains tax by a 62-38 margin.
'Please make me pay more taxes'

One delegate, Jake Landau, the president of the Don Valley West Young Liberals, said he considers himself "upper middle class" and he believes the current system is tilted toward the wealthy.

"I am asking everyone, please make me pay more taxes. I want to pay my fair share," he said.

Another delegate named Linda — who also did not give her last name — said she worries that a change to the capital gains tax might open the door to the federal government taxing the sale of primary residences.

In the last election, the Conservative Party warned that a Liberal government would look to cash in on rising home values by levying a capital gains tax on home sales to raise funds — a charge the Liberals have denied.

Right now, sales of primary homes are exempt from capital gains taxes — meaning the owners don't have to pay taxes on any increase in a home's value when it's sold. The same rules do not apply to secondary, seasonal or investment properties, which are taxed like other investments.

"My concern with this is it is a blanket resolution," said Linda. "There are many people relying on capital gains in their home in order to retire and not live in poverty."

'Long-term care can be a nightmare'

Party members also overwhelmingly backed a policy proposal — with 97 per cent in favour — to reform the country's long-term care home system, which has been hit hard with death and disease throughout this pandemic.

"The pandemic has shown us that long-term care can be a nightmare," said one unnamed Liberal delegate. "Seniors will do anything they can to stay out."

The policy calls on the federal government to introduce new legislation to set "enforceable" national standards to prevent a repeat of the COVID-19 outbreaks in long-term care facilities that have claimed the lives of thousands.

Kathleen Devlin of the Senior Liberals' Commission said Canadians have been "horrified" by the conditions reported in long-term care homes throughout this health crisis.

She said the Canadian Armed Forces report last summer from the pandemic front lines "embarrassed us all." Soldiers reported that residents in some long-term care homes were bullied, drugged, improperly fed and in some cases left for hours and days in soiled bedding.

"While it's a provincial responsibility to deliver it, there needs to be federal leadership to give all Canadians equity when they're at their most vulnerable," Devlin said. "Sometimes we need a crisis to face what we already know."

According to the resolution, these new standards would address accommodation conditions, staffing levels, qualifications and compensation. The proposed legislation also would demand greater transparency in how homes are operated "and public accountability through random inspections and annual public reporting."