It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thursday, September 02, 2021
SCHADENFREUDE Former CIA officer turned Q-Anon conspiracy theorist dies of COVID-19 while on anti-vax speaking tour of Florida
Robert David Steele was a former CIA officer who became a big supporter of conspiracy theories
He had become a devotee of QAnon and was in the midst of a tour decrying coronavirus vaccines when he was hospitalized with the virus
He has since died, his friend Mark Tassi announced on Instagram on Sunday
Steele bragged that he was the first person to call the coronavirus a hoax
He had also claimed that child slaves were being sent to Mars, forcing NASA to issue a denial, and said 5G was a weapons system designed to kill humans
A former CIA officer who became infamous for his embrace of conspiracy theories had died of COVID-19 - while on an anti-vax tour of Florida.
Robert David Steele had bragged that he was the first person to declare the COVID-19 pandemic a hoax, and refused to believe in the virus until the end.
Steele was in the midst of his Arise USA! tour across the country to 'awaken the nation in truth', promoting his anti-vaccine message and his conspiracy theories.
But he was hospitalized earlier this month after testing positive for the virus, and his death was confirmed by a friend on Sunday.
In his final blog post on August 17, he wrote: 'I will not take the vaccination, though I did test positive for whatever they're calling 'COVID' today, but the bottom line is that my lungs are not functioning.
'The good news is that I will survive with a few days off. I should be back up and at least functional soon.
'This is been a near death experience, very much like a new death experience the whole country is going through right now.
'We will never be the same because now we know that we've all been lied to about everything.'
Robert David Steele, who called himself the first person to describe COVID-19 as a hoax, has died in Florida from the virus. In his final blog post, he said his lungs had failed
Steele's final blog post was published on August 17. His friend announced his death on Sunday
On Sunday his friend Mark Tassi, a fellow conspiracy theorist, confirmed his death. Tassi alleged without evidence that Steele's illness may have been linked to the attention his speaking tour had received
On Sunday his friend Mark Tassi, a fellow conspiracy theorist, confirmed his death.
'Robert has died, and the whole thing is very suspicious,' Tassi said in an Instagram post.
Tassi alleged without evidence that Steele's illness may have been linked to the attention his speaking tour had received.
In a 14-minute video Tassi speculated that Steele was the victim of an 'attack' by a 'vile faction that will go to any length to stop that movement'.
He went on to claim that Steele had got sick in Florida as part of a plot to undermine Republican governor Ron DeSantis.
He said: 'They are trying to make Florida look bad. Why? Because DeSantis is not going along with agenda so they are targeting Florida. Open your eyes.'
Steele was a former CIA analyst, but had in recent years become a prominent supporter of QAnon and other conspiracy theories.
He began issuing warnings that child slaves were being sent to Mars - prompting NASA to issue a denial - and claimed that 5G technology was a weapons system designed to kill humans.
He had a history of antisemitism, and once called for all Jews who are not sufficiently 'loyal to the Republic' to be jailed, Vice reports.
Steele was also a frequent guest on Alex Jones' Infowars show.
QUACK, QUACK, QUACK
Ivermectin Is Anti-Vaxxers’ Latest COVID Drug Of Choice. A Study Promoting It Has Suspect Data. An influential study from Argentina has been used to argue that ivermectin prevents COVID 100% of the time — but its inconsistencies have led experts to question if it could have actually happened as advertised.
BuzzFeed News / Getty Images / Todo Noticias via YouTube
For anti-vaccine activists, the clinical trial results couldn’t have been better. The drug ivermectin, scientists in Argentina announced last year, prevented 100% of COVID-19 infections.
That glowing finding helped spark a craze for the decades-old medication, which is normally used to delouse people and deworm livestock, and drive the perception that it is a silver bullet against the pandemic.
“If you take it, you will not get sick,” an ivermectin-boosting physician told a Senate committee in December, describing it as a “wonder drug” and citing in part the trial “from Argentina.”
But there are signs that at least some of the experiments — as written up in a paper published in November — didn’t happen as advertised. After BuzzFeed News raised questions about how the study’s data was collected and analyzed, a representative from the Journal of Biomedical Research and Clinical Investigation, which published the results, said late Monday, “We will remove the paper temporarily.” A link was removed from the table of contents — but was reinstated by Thursday. The journal’s explanation, provided after this story was published, was that the author “informed us that he has already provided the evidence of his study to the media.”
The numbers, genders, and ages of the study’s participants were inconsistent. A hospital named in the paper as taking part in the experiments said it has no record of it happening. Health officials in the province of Buenos Aires have also said that they also have no record of the study receiving local approval.
And the researcher overseeing the project, Hector Carvallo, a retired endocrinologist and professor of internal medicine at the University of Buenos Aires, has declined to widely share his data — including with one of his own collaborators, emails show.
Todo Noticias via YouTube / Via youtube.com Hector Carvallo
In short, independent experts told BuzzFeed News, the oft-cited study has so many red flags that it is, at best, unreliable.
Carvallo, 64, said the study was real. “We would never make up a study because it’s not ethical,” he told BuzzFeed News.
In an interview, Carvallo said he supports vaccines and that he himself is immunized. “What I want for ivermectin is to be considered as another possibility among the repurposed drugs. Not the best one, not the only one, just another one,” he said from Buenos Aires province. “And not to be considered a challenge to vaccines. That would be stupid because they are different.”
But others say that at a time of a global crisis, when vaccination rates are slumping in the face of a relentless virus, Carvallo’s research is being used to give desperate people false, and potentially dangerous, hope about the miraculous properties of a drug proven only to help kill parasites.
“The thing that really worries me is it’s being explicitly used as an alternative to vaccines by some people,” Sheldrick said.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the independence of the 5 Central Asian Republics (hereby, CARs) of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, both India and China established diplomatic relations with the nations in the Central Asian region, but the latter, due to its geographical proximity and economic strength, has fared much better than the former. With a rise in its neo-colonial practices, China has used economic coercive methods to utilise the resources the CARs have to offer. From laying Belt and Road projects in the region, to providing loans that, upon non-repayment, would lead China to usurp Central Asian resource-bases in return, China’s unchecked influence in the region has led to growing sentiments of opposition among the masses. Historically, the Soviet Union and the post-1991 Russia did have great relations with and a similar undue influence upon the CARs, but now, as Russia’s relations with China have grown closer, it has become more of a backseat power in Central Asia. Moreover, Russia’s fate in the region was sealed for the worse when it faced sanctions from the west on its annexation of Crimea in 2014, and its aggressiveness with Ukraine. The Kremlin did attempt to reassert its dominance amidst its increasing unease at Beijing’s massive influence in the region, especially through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) – an organisation focusing on counterterrorism and military preparedness in the region. But this overall strategic push has not veiled the western resentment and the diminishing economic strength faced by Russia today. It’s now safe to say that there’s not much Russia can do about hegemonic Chinese ambitions in the region.
India, on the other hand, still endeavours to make the most of its relations with the CARs. The under-utilised potential lies in energy, trade and cultural ties, as well as in India’s performance in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The SCO, of which India became a permanent member in 2017 with support from Russia and the CARs, can be the negotiating table India needs to come together with China and Pakistan and shape the future of the region. Other initiatives that need immediate attention are energy pipelines that are underway – the Turkmenistan– Afghanistan–Pakistan–India Pipeline, for instance, connecting Central Asia with India through Pakistan, or a new pipeline endeavour that can provide India a route that doesn’t require it to deal with Pakistan – for example, through the Chabahar port in Iran. Another initiative is the International North-South Transport Corridor, which, although ambitious and a tough competition to China/ BRI-centered trade routes, has progressed unsatisfactorily. While there exists geographical distance, cultural closeness can easily be furthered between India and the CARs through historical ties involving soft-power diplomacy, and much more.
First, we must understand China’s stake in the region, and the responses its involvement has incited. Central Asia is an important resource-centre for China, being naturally rich in oil and gas. China’s alternative sources for energy-producing elements like gas have become increasingly unstable (especially the Middle East, which has been in constant turmoil since the 2011 Arab Spring, and now increasingly due to the ill-effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic). China shares a border with three Central Asian nations – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – and stability in the Central Asian region therefore, becomes important for China so as to avoid spillovers of instability, violence, and refugees into its Xinjiang Province. The Xinjiang province is infamous for Chinese internment camps targeting Uighur muslims, and for China to protect its borders from illegal crossing, which may lead to a diplomatic blunder, becomes essential. For this, Central Asian nations bordering China agreed to ban Uighur groups in 1997. In return, China has offered to them, over the years, huge investments. For example, in Kazakhstan, Chinese investments and contracts today have crossed the US $50 billion mark, and have exceeded US $2-3 billion in the other four CARs. Chinese BRI projects have integrated Central Asia into the nexus of global trade more comprehensively. For example, the New Eurasian Land-Bridge corridor links China to Europe (Poland and Germany) via Russia and Kazakhstan. Chinese is building border military posts, especially in collaboration with Tajikistan, for personnel training and security. Amidst the Pandemic, Central Asian hydrocarbon exports to Central Asia have lowered, but a boost has been created by China, in that it gave Central Asian commodities limited access to its own markets. These especially opens China for imports of Central Asian foodstuffs and agricultural produce.
In recent times, citizens of the CARs have shown growing resentment towards Chinese presence in the region. They feel that their governments need to look beyond politico-economic considerations to take harsher steps in dealing with Chinese neo-imperialism. The inhumane treatment of Uighur muslims, that has sparked worldwide condemnation, has also been a matter of concern for the Central Asians, as various families of Uighur muslims have Kazakh and Kyrgyz origins – people belonging to a land called East Turkestan. While East Turkestan became part of mainland China after it fell into the hands of Chinese warlords in 1911, the current and emerging East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM for short), an Islamic fundamentalist initiative to radicalise the Uighurs, has raised a new diplomatic and security challenge for China. Central Asians also launched protests in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan over issues like Chinese companies giving more pay to their own workers than those from the CARs, or China usurping land and resource-blocs when there was non-repayment of loans by the governments. In this light, India has the opportunity to revive its image and interests, establishing friendly political and trade relations with the CARs.
India’s 2012 ‘Connect Central Asia’ and ‘Eurasia’ Policies highlight the significant stake India holds in the region. Two major projects for enhanced connectivity, in this regard, are the TAPI pipeline and the INSTC, both of which have immense potential in terms of tapping Central Asian energy resources, and establishing a freight corridor free of Pakistani and Chinese interventions respectively, but have been taking too long to develop and operationalise. This must be overcome with greater fervour if India is to take its connectivity with the CARs more seriously. Historically, India and Central Asia have engaged in trade and cultural-diasporic exchanges, by virtue of the Silk Road. Shared religious ideals (especially of Islam and Buddhism), a love for folklore and food culture, and an adoration for Bollywood, are striking soft diplomacy tools at India’s hand. The most important aspect of the religious ties would be a revival of the ‘Naqshbandi’, which is an Indo-Islamic way of life that emerged with the interactions of the Mughal empire in India with the Sufi mysticism of Central Asia.
The Afghanistan issue and the recent de-facto takeover of Taliban over the country is a destabilizing matter for the region, and both India and the CARs are stakeholders in the Afghani peace process. While the new US-guided quad, comprising of the United States, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan, has left India out, India can use the SCO to earn favour and support of the CARs in bringing peaceful resolution to Afghani infighting, considering both the parties have supported power-sharing between the Taliban and the government, and are afraid of the violent repercussions and the refugee crisis that the Taliban takeover is causing.
The India-China rivalry can be the next big thing in Central Asia, when the dust of the Afghani peace process settles – and India must be ready for it. As the world prepares for reforming post-Pandemic supply chains, and in that context, the India-Central Asia relations can either become better, or decline in the presence of alternatives. Hence, the time for India to a hard look into the Central Asia policy mirror is now.
Russian Far East and Arctic: Emerging Arenas for India-China Competition?
In a speech this year in Moscow, Indian Foreign Secretary highlighted the three strategic geographies- Eurasia, Indo-pacific and the Russian Far East (RFE), and the Arctic, which will be the key emerging theatres of geopolitics that upcoming diplomats will be engaged in throughout their careers. He further stressed that not only is Russia crucial to all the three regions, but there is also an inherent need of multi-polarity for the security and prosperity of these regions. Also, a multipolar world and a multipolar Asia is not possible without India and Russia.
Did the Foreign secretary underline the increasing Chinese ambitions in these regions and the need for countering these ambitions by pointing towards the necessity of multipolarity in Asia? Several questions arise when we take in consideration the recent rejuvenation in the relationship between India and Russia, and the narrative that strategic hedging against China is the main motive behind this rejuvenation.
For answering these, one needs to understand why China is interested in these regions and what has been China doing in these key areas. Further, what are India’s stakes in these regions and whether India can think of competing with China here. Moreover, how Russia looks at the competition if it exists. This piece tries to analyze these questions and highlight the ongoing geopolitical dynamics in the RFE and Arctic and the pertaining Indian and Chinese foreign policies, in their past, present, and future goals. Importance of RFE and Arctic
Geographically, RFE comprises of the Far Eastern Federal district that is the easternmost territory of Russia sandwiched between eastern Siberia and the Pacific Ocean. The district shares land borders with Mongolia, China, and North Korea to the south and shares maritime borders with Japan to its southeast and with the US to its northeast.
Having never known serfdom, this region has been culturally, religiously and politically different from Moscow and the Russian heartland for a major part of history, by virtue of more entrepreneurism and autonomy. Today there exists an additional dimension to this ‘difference’ between the RFE and the center. In the Soviet period, the region was tied to Europe economically but in past decade it has become increasingly clear that several of the Far Eastern krais and oblasts (units of governance in Russian political system like districts), especially those bordering China are now economically dependent more on Asia than on European region. This situation is compounded by migration related demographic issues. For more than a decade now the region has witnessed exodus of ethnic Russian population and seen a growing influence of Chinese businesses and migrants. The extent of this phenomenon is widely visible as over the years large tracts of land in this region have been leased to Chinese for farming, infrastructure projects and energy exploration, with a low tax regime and a considerable amount of autonomy over the activities. As a result, the region has witnessed emergence of Chinese run farms which look like fortresses, surrounded by high fences and red flags.
The Arctic is deemed as the northernmost region on Earth. While most part of this region used to remain covered with snow for a major part of the year, this phenomenon has been on a downfall due to changes being purported by climate change. The Arctic region not only contains plethora of mineral resources but is extremely important from strategic point of view. During the cold war era, the Arctic held a prominent place in the political and military standoffs between the two superpowers- US and USSR. The region observed a drop in the geopolitical and geostrategic relevance in the 1990s and remained of ‘low tension’ due to commitments made by the Arctic states to keep the Arctic a zone of peace.
The unfreezing of snow makes way for the possibility of opening of the Northern Sea Route which can provide a cost-effective and shorter duration alternative for global shipping routes. Also, scientific developments taking place in hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation can lead to full-scale utilization of the resource base of the Arctic in near future. Moscow’s Approach
Since the rise of Vladimir Putin at the helm of Russian Federation, Moscow’s approach towards development of the RFE has been to inject money into existing industries which according to many analysts of the field has not worked due to the lacunae in addressing the problems of infrastructure and regional integrity. Moscow desires to integrate the region with the broader Asia-Pacific region to solve the problems of development, investment, and connectivity.
In last few years, Moscow has taken decisions like encouraging the return of Russian ‘compatriots’ from Central Asia to accelerate large scale projects. It has also created Special Economic Zones with low tax regimes, focused on modernizing the ‘Trans-Siberian railway’ network, and emphasized on plans to invite investments in the region from nations like India and Japan, beyond the biggest investor in the region- China.
It has to be noted that any developments in the RFE cannot be in isolation from that in Arctic. With the aim of developing both the regions in concurrence, Moscow created the ‘Ministry of the RFE and the Arctic’ which is now working on creation of a corporation in order to supervise the economy and to assume control over elements like ports and exchanges. For the Arctic, Russia rolled out its ‘Strategy for Developing the Russian Arctic Zone and Ensuring National Security through 2035’ in October last year, which aims to advance the development of the region’s abundant resources (especially oil and gas), and improve living conditions for the population. As a long-term objective, Russia hopes to establish the Northern Sea route as a new global shipping lane. These aims and policies need to be considered while understanding Chinese and Indian policies and ambitions and the emerging geopolitical triangle between the three countries, resulting in both cooperation and competition.
The India-China Competition
The perception of China has seen a rise and fall in the last three decades in Russian society. Unlike the 1990s, when there was much skepticism regarding a rise in Chinese immigration, Russia became less wary of engaging with China when relations with the west deteriorated in the aftermath of conflicts in Georgia in 2008 and in Crimea in 2014. Gradually, China became the leading source of foreign direct investment in the region as well as the leading exporter to the districts at the Russia-China border. The extent of asymmetry in terms of trade resulted in a situation where while the exports from this region are diversified among the three northeast Asian states- South Korea, China and Japan, the imports are heavily dominated by China, mainly consisting of machinery, equipment and metals. This imbalance has been further aggravated by factors such as sanctions by the west- leading to declining investment from European nations, and the dramatic rise of China in realm of manufactured goods- which has led to stagnant conditions for the local industries of these regions which are now dependent on export of mainly raw materials and minerals.
As observed by some experts, Beijing’s interest in the region increased after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 when the Chinese investment was followed by an influx of Chinese migrants in the five districts at Russia-China border, namely- Amur oblast, Jewish autonomous region, Primorsky Krai and Khabarovsk Krai. From amongst these regions, Amur oblast has the largest gold reserves in Russia, while in another near-border district of Oktyabrsky, there are large Uranium deposits. Adjoining Amur is Sakha (or Yakutia), which carries the world’s largest diamond deposits.
However, mineral resources are not the only source of motivation for Chinese investment in the region. RFE contains huge potential for infrastructure development in realm of power generation (where Chinese electric companies have already shown interest to gain foothold), and upgradation of railway infrastructure which can connect the RFE, Northeast China and Japan with Europe with a land-based network and thus reduce the sea-dependence. Invariably, there has been an increasingly accepted reality that like the Russian Asia-Pacific policy, the policy in RFE too might become lopsided due to the factor of overdependence on China.
Kremlin on its part remain aware of the increasing dependence on export of raw materials to China. China on the other hand is working actively in diversifying its own energy imports and is now seeking to compete with Russia in realm of exports to traditional Russian markets for weaponry and technology. Ideas like temporary placement of skilled manpower from India in RFE are being explored. Besides this, the pledge by India for a $1 billion Line of Credit for development of the RFE highlights the importance being placed by the two countries to make this region a source of renewed cooperation. For now, the plans have been in phase of conceptualization and once the implementation stage arrives, China’s stance towards the potential competition here will be interesting to observe.
Unlike the case of RFE, the changing dynamics and increasing Chinese interests in the Arctic region have been debated and speculated much more in the global geopolitical arena. In the last two decades, not only has Beijing accumulated memberships in all Arctic-related regional associations in some form, but Beijing has also made it a surety that China actively participates in all international organizations whose responsibilities cover the Arctic Ocean and laws related to it. To this end in the past decade, Beijing has started projecting its interest and speaking up on issues pertaining to Arctic. The extent of this activism can be verified by the aims and objectives mentioned in the white paper published by China on 26 January 2018, titled ‘China’s Arctic Policy’. This policy paper very explicitly states that China will participate in regulating and managing the affairs and activities relating to the Arctic, and that ‘respect’ is the key basis for China’s participation in Arctic affairs.
Beijing has made it clear that it has formulated policies and have interest in every realm in the Arctic, ranging from development of shipping routes, exploration and exploitation of oil, gas and minerals, conservation and utilization of fisheries, tourism, as well as strengthening her leadership credentials by having a say in Arctic governance. In totality, if RFE is a region for China’s increasing influence in Russia’s domestic landscape, Arctic is much more of an opportunity to put on display the increasing clout and aspirations for being accepted as a ‘great power’ who now has interests in every corner of the world. India, even if starting to present itself as an alternative to China in the RFE, will find it difficult to match the Chinese position in the Arctic.
In January this year, India rolled out a draft Arctic policy of its own and highlighted that India seeks to play a constructive role in Arctic by leveraging its vast scientific pool and expertise in Himalayan and polar research. India remains aware that Arctic might be becoming an arena of increasing power competition. But beyond planning, goal setting, and utilizing the existing mechanisms for scientific development, in coming years, the economic base of India will not let New Delhi go all-out for claiming a position on the Arctic high table. This is bound to increase tensions in Moscow who would not want a challenge to its hegemony in the Arctic by an increasingly ambitious China. Conclusion
On its part, Moscow has taken several steps to develop the RFE region to reduce its overdependence on China. However, remoteness of the region, outmigration and difficult business environment are some other issues which append the complex dynamic of the region. Beijing is aware of the benefits available due to scarce ethnic Russian labor, lack of investment from other sources for Russia, the geographical difficulties for nations like India for smooth access, and the absence of deep pockets like China for other nations. In case of the Arctic, Beijing is going for proactive diplomacy and wooing the smaller states. Although Beijing would not want to come to blows with Washington or Moscow in any ways, creating a discourse where China starts being seen as a ‘Arctic’ and not just a ‘Near-Arctic’ state will be a big win for China even before any other advantages as mentioned above are realized. India while looking to initiate presence in RFE can be deemed capable to some extent, but the credentials in case of Arctic region seems no match to that of China. Russia on her part, will want India to at least think about trying to punch above its weight and rise to the task of providing Moscow a way for hedging against Chinese hegemonic ambitions. Recently, India has expressed interest in cooperating with other nations like Japan in these key strategic areas. How Moscow responds to these plans by New Delhi will shape the geopolitical dynamics between Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi in these two emerging regions which look all set to witness a competition in the coming years.
Beijing ready to invest in Afghanistan, help rebuild country, says Taliban spokesman
Attribution: China's Foreign Ministry
02/09/2021
ROME (AA) – China will be the Taliban’s “main partner” and help rebuild Afghanistan, according to a spokesman for the group.
“China will be our main partner and represents a great opportunity for us because it is ready to invest in our country and support reconstruction efforts,” Zabihullah Mujahid said in an interview published by Italian newspaper La Repubblica on Wednesday.
He said the Taliban value China’s Belt and Road Initiative as the project will revive the ancient Silk Road.
He said China will also help Afghanistan fully utilize its rich copper resources and give the country a path into global markets.
The Taliban also view Russia as an important partner in the region and will maintain good relations with Moscow, he added.
Speaking about the Kabul airport, Mujahid said the facility is fully under Taliban control but has been seriously damaged.
Qatar and Turkey are leading efforts to resume operations at the airport, he told the Italian publication.
“The airport should be clean within the next three days and will be rebuilt in a short time. I hope it will be operational again in September,” he said.
On relations with Italy, Mujahid said the Taliban hope Italy will recognize their government and reopen its embassy in Kabul.
The Taliban took control of Afghanistan on Aug. 15, forcing President Ashraf Ghani and other top officials to flee the country.
The group has been working to form a government and an announcement is expected on Friday.
Chinese Firms Don’t Want to Pay Afghanistan’s Costs
FOREIGN AFFAIRS August 29, 2021
Despite Beijing’s huge war chest of yuan and a tested comfort for dealing with dictators, the United States has little to fear in a Chinese foray to turn its western neighbor into a client state. Far more likely, Beijing would suffer the same fate as many other empires that tried to shape Afghanistan in its own image. The economic, political, and strategic contexts all work against Beijing.
The United States is paying a heavy cost for the messy way in which it is withdrawing from Afghanistan, but an equally serious concern for many analysts has been the long-term prospects of China filling the vacuum left by the United States and expanding its geopolitical influence farther into the Eurasian landmass. When viewed through the lens of the growing rivalry between Washington and Beijing, it’s not hard to imagine seeing Afghanistan now being painted red and falling into China’s camp.
The United States is paying a heavy cost for the messy way in which it is withdrawing from Afghanistan, but an equally serious concern for many analysts has been the long-term prospects of China filling the vacuum left by the United States and expanding its geopolitical influence farther into the Eurasian landmass. When viewed through the lens of the growing rivalry between Washington and Beijing, it’s not hard to imagine seeing Afghanistan now being painted red and falling into China’s camp.
Despite Beijing’s huge war chest of yuan and a tested comfort for dealing with dictators, the United States has little to fear in a Chinese foray to turn its western neighbor into a client state. Far more likely, Beijing would suffer the same fate as many other empires that tried to shape Afghanistan in its own image. The economic, political, and strategic contexts all work against Beijing.
Whatever normal economy existed has all but been decimated after four decades of war. According to the World Bank, Afghanistan’s total economy in 2020 was valued at only $19.8 billion, making it smaller than every single Fortune 500 company. For a country of 39.9 million people, that translates into a meager per capita income of only $509—or barely above subsistence.
There was great fanfare a decade ago when U.S. officials estimated Afghanistan had a $1 trillion treasure trove of minerals, including the ever-hyped lithium and rare earths. Some have tripled that estimate. That is likely just hype, but even if true on paper, Afghanistan lacks the infrastructure, political stability, and skilled labor to effectively exploit these resources—as was amply shown during the U.S. era. There are many other locales with the same resources but far better conditions for foreign investors.
With few productive assets, the country’s economy was already deeply dependent on the United States’ provision of dollars for conducting international transactions and foreign aid for many basic necessities. In the wake of the Taliban victory, the United States, Great Britain, and the International Monetary Fund have frozen much of the government’s reserves and accounts. Consumer fears have reportedly driven inflation to more than 50 percent. Perhaps most importantly, despite the current bottleneck and bombings at Kabul’s airport, the mass exodus of Afghanistan’s best and brightest individuals—whether during the U.S. evacuation or fleeing the country through other means—will further deplete the country of critical talent needed for sustainable development and good governance.
China’s economic opportunities are thus quite meager. Afghanistan’s total external trade in 2020 was a paltry $7.83 billion and two-way foreign direct investment a mere $50 million, barely a rounding error for most of its neighbors, let alone China.
Nor has Beijing particularly laid the groundwork for an expanded presence. Despite some reports, China is a minor player in Afghanistan’s economy. It ranks no better than the country’s sixth largest trading partner, trailing Pakistan, India, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and the United States, according to the data supplied by its partners to the IMF. According to the U.N. Comtrade Database, China’s top exports to Afghanistan would have been impressive—in the 1960s: tires, basic telecom equipment, motorcycles, mopeds, and fabrics. (The United States’ exports are no less odd, as they were almost all war-related: special-purpose vehicles, fighter aircraft, military aircraft parts, telecom equipment, and tanks.)
Equally telling, although Afghanistan signed up for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, there only two BRI projects totaling $3.4 billion; by contrast, China has poured at least $87 billion into 122 BRI projects in neighboring Pakistan.
Afghanistan is one of the least wired countries in the world. With only 11.5 percent of Afghans online, by World Bank data, and a decrepit road system, Alibaba, Tencent, or any other Chinese retailer would have a hard time making an afghani there. And given the limited infrastructure and security risks, the notion that Chinese mining ventures in search of lithium will be the first through the door as the U.S. departs—and make a real run of it—is fanciful.
The obstacles presented by Afghanistan’s sheer poverty are rivaled by the political challenges China would have to overcome to bring the country under its thumb. China has had success in several authoritarian countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, but it is most comfortable interacting with centralized regimes where economic growth, even via corruption, is prized and resources are easy to procure.
Afghanistan is the exact opposite: a highly fragmented political system now overseen by a deeply conservative theocracy in many ways opposed to the basic elements of modernization. Beijing is used to dealing with corruption, but it’s not just a case of bribery but who to bribe effectively. The depth of local knowledge and number of interlocuters needed to get projects in Afghanistan moving would create astronomical costs. In such an environment, it is hard to see how Chinese investments would generate extensive new economic activity that yields new customers or makes the country highly dependent on Beijing.
To make matters worse, China’s most innovative private firms, who would be best positioned to come up with novel solutions in Afghanistan, are currently being eviscerated and scared silly by an aggressive campaign to trim their sails and bring their executives to heel. Given the risks, fewer firms than usual will be willing to venture abroad. That leaves the more obedient but less agile and old-fashioned state-owned enterprises to do Beijing’s bidding. They certainly can build highways—but quite often to nowhere. And even they may not want to handle the blowback that would come from possible terror attacks on their staff, especially from an increasingly Islamophobic Chinese public; scattered incidents in Pakistan have already caused disquiet in China.
The icing on this bitter cake is the stormy geostrategic context. Like dictator Kim Jong Un’s North Korea, the Taliban will be international pariahs deprived of easy access to the global banking system and international markets. Given the likelihood of being slapped with Western sanctions, the chance of multinationals from China or elsewhere wanting to insert a landlocked Afghanistan into their global supply chains is amazingly small. On top of that, an assertive China would very well draw negative attention—and countermoves—from surrounding larger powers, including Pakistan, India, Iran, and Russia. There may be no tougher neighborhood in which to do business.
For all of those reasons, if China attempts to fill the vacuum, its investors and businesses there would be rapidly starved of commercial oxygen and come racing back across the border, humbled by their experience.
However, where the British, Russians, and Americans have failed, perhaps Beijing will have the magic touch. If by some miracle China manages to turn things around, laying down infrastructure that is then effectively utilized by producers and consumers—all overseen by a restored civil service—this might provide the country a thin foundation of stability. That wouldn’t be a catastrophe for Washington. A developing Afghanistan, even if on Beijing’s dime and under its influence, would likely be far less of a haven for terrorism toward anyone than a country beset by endemic poverty.
Regardless of what Beijing does—whether it gets bogged down (the most likely outcome) or somehow pulls a rabbit out of a hat—Washington would benefit either way. Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s your turn.
Child sex abuse takes place in almost all major UK religions, inquiry finds
2 September 2021
Religious groups in UK have failed children over sex abuse, report finds. Picture: Alamy
By Emma Soteriou
An inquiry into child sexual abuse says it has found "shocking failings" of religious organisations to protect children.
The Independent Inquiry said child sexual abuse had been found in most major UK religions and described the 'blatant hypocrisy' of those claiming to teach right from wrong.
Victim-blaming, an absence of discussion around sex and sexuality, abuse of power by religious leaders and discouraging external reporting are among the "shocking failures" outlined in the report from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA).
The Child Protection In Religious Organisations And Settings report examined evidence from 38 religious organisations with a presence in England and Wales.
The report, based on 16 days of public hearings held during March, May and August 2020, said there was likely to be a significant under-reporting of child sexual abuse in religious organisations and settings.
These included Jehovah's Witnesses, Baptists, Methodists, Islam, Judaism, Sikhism, Hinduism, Buddhism, and non-conformist Christian denominations.
The IICSA had already held separate investigations into the Roman Catholic Church and the Anglican Church, the two largest religious groups in the country.
It found that what marks religious organisations out from other institutions is "the explicit purpose they have in teaching right from wrong; the moral turpitude of any failing by them in the prevention of, or response to, child sexual abuse is therefore heightened".
However, there was "significant diversity" between religious organisations as to whether they had adequate child protection policies in place and the extent to which they effectively follow them.
"Religious believers can find it difficult to accept that members of their congregation or religious leaders could perpetrate abuse," the report said.
"As a result, some consider that it is not necessary to have specific child protection procedures or to adhere strictly to them."
An example was given of four people who were sexually abused when they were approximately nine years old whilst they were being taught the Koran by a teacher in a mosque.
In 2017, the perpetrator was convicted and sentenced to 13 years' imprisonment, the report said.
Another example given was of a girl who was sexually assaulted by a church volunteer when she was 12 years old. She disclosed the abuse to her mother, who reported it to the police.
After being made aware of the allegations, a church minister told her mother that the abuser was "valued" and must be considered "innocent until proven guilty".
The report said it later became known that the abuser had previously been dismissed from a police force following charges of unlawful sexual intercourse with a minor.
Professor Alexis Jay, chairwoman of the Inquiry, said: "Religious organisations are defined by their moral purpose of teaching right from wrong and protection of the innocent and the vulnerable.
"However when we heard about shocking failures to prevent and respond to child sexual abuse across almost all major religions, it became clear many are operating in direct conflict with this mission.
"Blaming the victims, fears of reputational damage and discouraging external reporting are some of the barriers victims and survivors face, as well as clear indicators of religious organisations prioritising their own reputations above all else.
"For many, these barriers have been too difficult to overcome.
"We have seen some examples of good practice, and it is our hope that with the recommendations from this report, all religious organisations across England and Wales will improve what they do to fulfil their moral responsibility to protect children from sexual abuse."
Richard Scorer, a specialist abuse lawyer who acts for seven victim and survivor groups in the inquiry, said children had been "catastrophically failed" by some religious groups with non-existent safeguarding policies.
He added: "This is simply unacceptable. It is clear from the report that too many religious organisations continue to prioritise the protection, reputation and authority of religious leaders above the rights of children."
There are an estimated 250,000 children in England and Wales who receive "supplementary schooling" or "out-of-school provision" from a faith organisation, the report revealed.
That said, there is no reliable information on how many settings there are, and as there is no requirement for such schools to be registered with any state body, they have no supervision or oversight in respect of child protection.
The report provided two recommendations moving forward: that all religious organisations have a child protection policy and that the government should legislate to amend the definition of full-time education to bring any setting that is the pupil's primary place of education within the scope of a registered school.
In response to the inquiry, the Methodist Church said it "welcomes" the findings.
"While it will take time for us to study today’s report, early indications are that it includes many areas where religious organisations are still failing their members and we are truly sorry for where this happens in our churches," a statement from the secretary of the Conference of the Methodist Church, Rev Dr Jonathan Hustler, read.
It went on to say: "There can be never be any excuse for failings in safeguarding and it is the responsibility of everyone connected with the Methodist Church to uphold the highest standards in order to protect children and vulnerable people."
Meanwhile, the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) said the abuse inquiry report "makes for difficult reading and underlines the importance of education centred around the wellbeing of children".
It added: "The protection of children is rooted in our religious traditions and should be at the centre of all Muslim institutions. This includes child safeguarding policies and regular on-going training.
"Crucially, children must feel confident in reporting any concerns they have.
"The MCB is committed to providing resources and support for our affiliated organisations, and to sharing good practice already out there, to foster safe and nurturing environments for children in religious settings."
Children's charity NSPCC said the report highlighted "a host of fundamental, reoccurring safeguarding flaws" that left children vulnerable.
A spokesman said: "As a result, many young people have suffered terrible abuse and then found there is no-one willing to listen to them and provide help and support.
"A significant barrier to tackling child sexual abuse within religious settings has been a failure of members to prioritise safeguarding and make it a serious issue that requires substantive attention and action."
The charity recognised that, although the safeguarding of children and young people in their community should always be prioritised, "it is important to recognise the shortage of support and advice for religious organisations seeking to improve their safeguarding policies and procedures".
NEW REPORT
UK religions display 'Blatant hypocrisy and moral failing' due to lack of lack of child safeguarding policies
Child sexual abuse has been found in most major UK religionous organisations, according to a new report by the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse.
The Child Protection in Religious Organisations and Settings investigation examined child protection policies and safeguarding cultures in religious organisations in England and Wales. These included Jehovah’s Witnesses, Baptists, Methodists, Islam, Judaism, Sikhism, Hinduism, Buddhism and non-conformist Christian denominations.
Religious organisations play a central and even dominant role in the lives of millions of children in England and Wales. The report highlights the 'blatant hypocrisy and moral failing of religions' purporting to teach right from wrong and yet failing to prevent or respond to child sexual abuse.
The report found many religious organisations and settings do not consistently undertake DBS checks of those who may have contact with children, an essential prerequisite for adequate child protection.
Throughout the investigation, the Inquiry heard of 'shocking failings' across a number of religious organisations, and cases of child sexual abuse perpetrated by their followers.
One victim was sexually assaulted by a church volunteer when she was 12 years old. Another disclosed the abuse to her mother, who reported it to the police. After being made aware of the allegations, a church minister told her mother that the abuser was “valued” and must be considered “innocent until proven guilty”.
Further victims were all sexually abused when they were approximately nine years old whilst they were being taught the Qur’an by a teacher in a mosque. In 2017, the perpetrator was convicted and sentenced to 13 years’ imprisonment.
The report finds that organisational and cultural barriers to reporting child sexual abuse within religious organisations and settings are numerous, varied and difficult to overcome.
These include victim-blaming, an absence of discussion around sex and sexuality, and discouraging external reporting, thus prioritising the organisation’s reputation above the needs of victims of sexual abuse.
Comprehensive child protection policies and procedures are essential to ensuring that children are protected against sexual abuse. Whilst the Inquiry found that some organisations do have effective policies implemented, in some settings not even basic child protection procedures are in place, despite serving large congregations.
The report highlights that an estimated 250,000 children in England and Wales receive ‘supplementary schooling’ or ‘out-of-school provision’ from a faith organisation. However, there is no reliable information on how many settings there are, how many children attend them and for how many hours, what activities are provided and who runs them.
As there is no requirement for such schools to be registered with any state body, they have no supervision or oversight in respect of child protection.
Professor Alexis Jay, Chair of the Inquiry said: “Religious organisations are defined by their moral purpose of teaching right from wrong and protection of the innocent and the vulnerable. However when we heard about shocking failures to prevent and respond to child sexual abuse across almost all major religions, it became clear many are operating in direct conflict with this mission.
“Blaming the victims, fears of reputational damage and discouraging external reporting are some of the barriers victims and survivors face, as well as clear indicators of religious organisations prioritising their own reputations above all else. For many, these barriers have been too difficult to overcome.”
“We have seen some examples of good practice, and it is our hope that with the recommendations from this report, all religious organisations across England and Wales will improve what they do to fulfil their moral responsibility to protect children from sexual abuse.”
Analysis of the data from Operation Hydrant, which examines cases of non-recent sexual abuse, indicates that from early 2015 to January 2020 of all known institutions where offending had taken place, 11 percent (443 instances) were committed within a religious organisation or setting; and 10 percent of suspects (726 people) were employed by, or somehow linked to, a religious organisation or setting.
The report makes two recommendations. Firstly, that all religious organisations should have a child protection policy and supporting procedures.
And, secondly, that the government should legislate to amend the definition of full-time education to bring any setting that is the pupil’s primary place of education within the scope of a registered school, and provide Ofsted with sufficient powers to examine the quality of child protection when undertaking inspection of suspected unregistered schools.
Child sexual abuse inquiry raises serious alarm about illegal schools
September 2nd, 2021
The Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA) has today published its report on child protection in religious organisations and settings. Its report substantially focuses on issues related to out-of-school settings, particularly illegal schools. The report provides significant evidence of widespread abuse in these settings, and makes the argument that such abuse is enabled due to the lack of regulation. This is because of loopholes in the law. Closing these loopholes is one of the report’s two recommendations.
Humanists UK has been campaigning for the last seven years for action to close illegal schools. It has called today’s report a wake-up call that must be taken seriously by the Government and at last lead to swift action.
Humanists UK Education Campaigns Manager Ruth Wareham commented:
‘For far too long the Government has been mulling over how to shut down illegal schools. In the meantime, thousands of children are being badly let down. This includes not only a failure to make sure they receive a suitable education but, as today’s report outlines, also extends to child sexual abuse and corporal punishment.
‘It is long past time that action is taken to close such settings for good. The Department for Education must now bring forward legislation as a matter of urgency.’
The report’s findings
The report explains that there are as many as half a million children attending out-of-school settings, around half of which are religious. A substantial number of these are so-called ‘unregistered schools’, also known as illegal schools. Such settings exploit loopholes in the law that mean that settings that only provide religious instruction do not meet the minimum definitions of a school and are therefore able to evade regulation. The report quotes Ofsted as saying that ‘this leads to a perverse situation where, “As the law stands, the more inadequate the educational provision, the more likely a setting is to be exempt from regulation.”’
Today’s report outlines how this lack of regulation also results in a consequential lack of any oversight when it comes to child safeguarding. Settings have evaded child safeguarding procedures that would otherwise apply to them, and evidence of child sexual abuse and corporal punishment is widespread. The report sets out in huge detail the history of failure to tackle these issues over the last six years.
The report concludes, ‘Respect for a diversity of beliefs is a hallmark of a liberal democracy. However, freedom of religion and belief can never justify or excuse the ill-treatment of a child, or a failure to take adequate steps to protect them from harm.’ Its second of two recommendations is that ‘The government should introduce legislation to: change the definition of full-time education, and to bring any setting that is the pupil’s primary place of education within the scope of the definition of a registered educational setting; and provide the Office for Standards in Education, Children’s Services and Skills (Ofsted) with sufficient powers to examine the quality of child protection when it undertakes inspections of suspected unregistered institutions.’
Notes:
For further comment or information, please contact Humanists UK Education Campaigns Manager Ruth Wareham at ruth@humanists.uk or phone 020 7324 3000 or 0772 511 0860.
Humanists UK is the national charity working on behalf of non-religious people. Powered by 100,000 members and supporters, we advance free thinking and promote humanism to create a tolerant society where rational thinking and kindness prevail. We provide ceremonies, pastoral care, education, and support services benefitting over a million people every year and our campaigns advance humanist thinking on ethical issues, human rights, and equal treatment for all.
In 2021, Humanists UK is celebrating its 125th anniversary with a renewed focus on its history. The new website Humanist Heritage is a rich new web resource that uncovers the untold story of humanism in the UK – a story of people, groups, objects, places, movements, publications, and ideas.
Child abuse inquiry criticises religious groups’ “egregious failings”
Posted: Thu, 02 Sep 2021
There are "egregious failings" in the way various religious organisations have handled child abuse, with a variety of cultural factors contributing to the problem, an inquiry has said.
The report drew on evidence concerning 38 religious organisations of varying size and character, including the Jehovah's Witnesses, Islam, Judaism and others.
It said the organisations in question had "significant or even dominant influence on the lives of millions of children".
The inquiry has previously published reports on the handling of abuse in the Anglican and Catholic churches.
Key findings
The report identified a range of factors that may impede the reporting and effective management of abuse allegations.
These included the fear that exposure would damage organisations' reputation or be seen as a betrayal of a community. Some organisations encouraged internal reporting, rather than disclosure to state bodies.
The report also said barriers included:
Cultures of victim blaming, shame and honour
Religious taboos around the discussion of sexuality
Abuse of power by religious leaders
Mistrust of police and child protection agencies
Male-dominated leadership making it less likely that women and children would report abuse.
It added that the concept of forgiveness was "misused" in some religious settings, both to put pressure on victims not to report allegations and to justify religious leaders' failures to take appropriate action.
It also said there was "likely to be a significant under-reporting of child sexual abuse in religious organisations and settings".
Recommendations
The report made two recommendations. It said all religious organisations should have a child protection policy and supporting procedures.
It also said the government should legislate to protect children in out-of-school educational settings, and to ensure Ofsted had sufficient power to examine child protection in unregistered schools – which are often run by religious organisations. The National Secular Society has long campaigned for similar measures.
"It is axiomatic that neither the freedom of religion or belief, nor the rights of parents with regard to the education of their children, can ever justify the ill-treatment of children or prevent governmental authorities from taking measures necessary to protect children from harm."
It did not make a recommendation on whether there should be mandatory reporting of child abuse. The inquiry is set to consider this in its final report.
Comment
NSS chief executive Stephen Evans said the report highlighted "an all too familiar pattern of religious groups prioritising the protection of their reputation over the welfare of children".
"The significant failures outlined in this report, along with those on the Church of England and the Catholic Church, point to the need for independent oversight.
"And a mandatory reporting law is needed, to compel institutions to report safeguarding concerns to the statutory authorities – without providing an exception for religious institutions.
"Deference to religion, or fear of upsetting religious sensitivities, mustn't stand in the way of efforts to protect children from abuse and harm."
Richard Scorer, a specialist abuse lawyer who acted for victims in the inquiry and is also an NSS vice-president, said: "Today's report confirms that some religious groups have catastrophically failed to protect children in their care and that many have patchy or non-existent safeguarding policies and support for victims and survivors of abuse. This is simply unacceptable.
"It is clear from the report that too many religious organisations continue to prioritise the protection, reputation and authority of religious leaders above the rights of children.
"In the light of today's report, the arguments for mandatory reporting and independent oversight of religious bodies are overwhelming."
Criticism of inquiry
In a blog for the NSS website last week, former Jehovah's Witnesses elder Lloyd Evans raised concerns that the inquiry had failed to gather the evidence needed to root out abuse within the Witnesses.
In this report, two recommendations were made concerning the ABI. The first recommendation called on the Local Government Association and the ABI to produce codes of practice for responding to civil claims of child sexual abuse.
In a statement published online, the ABI said: ”The ABI and its members are grateful for the opportunity to engage with and work with the Inquiry to ensure that, to the extent that they are involved in the provision of redress to victims and survivors of child sexual abuse, there is a fair, just and clear process for all.”
The new code is effective for new and ongoing child sexual abuse claims from the 17 August 2021, which was the publication date for this code.
The code applies to ABI member firms that provide, or have previously provided, insurance which covers civil claims for child sexual abuse. It will be reviewed where appropriate, updated periodically and may be withdrawn if the ABI considers it appropriate to do so.
The ABI initially sent a letter to the Inquiry on 18 March 2020, followed a further letter dated 22 February 2021, providing it with an update on the ABI’s work to progress the proposed recommendations
. ABI code of practice
The ABI’s code was designed by a working group of insurer representatives with expertise in handling child sexual abuse cases.
The code includes guidance on all four areas contained in the Inquiry’s recommendation. The four areas suggested by the IICSA are that:
Claimants should be treated sensitively throughout the litigation process.
The defence of limitation should only be used in exceptional circumstances.
Single experts jointly instructed by both parties should be considered for the assessment of the claimants’ psychiatric, psychological or physical injuries.
Wherever possible, claimants should be offered apologies, acknowledgment, redress and support.
The ABI’s code ensures that insurers will:
• Recognise that pursuing a civil child sexual abuse claim can be intimidating and distressing for victims and survivors, so insurers should handle such claims appropriately and with sensitivity.
• Not seek to defend child sexual abuse claims on the basis of limitation or consent other than in exceptional circumstances.
• Seek to resolve the claim without the need for the claimant to undergo assessments by multiple medical experts.
• Never prevent or discourage policyholders from apologising to a claimant and will never require a claimant to agree to confidentiality terms as a condition of settlement of a child sexual abuse claim. National register
The second recommendation from the IICSA’s report suggested that the Department for Work and Pensions should work with the ABI to introduce a national register of public liability insurance policies.
This register should provide details of the relevant organisations, the name of the insurer, all relevant contact details, the period of cover and the insurance limits - these requirements should apply to policies issued and renewed after the commencement of the register and for those against which a claim has already been made.
The IICSA also said that the FCA should make the necessary regulatory changes to encourage insurers that provide public liability insurance to retain and publish details of all current policies.
