Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Hong Kong's Covid divide: Expats get more perks while domestic workers lose their homes

By Michelle Toh and Lizzy Yee, CNN Business
 Tue March 15, 2022

Hong Kong (CNN Business)Maria was just about to start a new job as a domestic worker in Hong Kong last month when she found out she had Covid-19.

She immediately told her employer, who urged her to get to a hospital. But once she was there, she said she was turned away, with staffers explaining there was no room. They advised her to go home and quarantine.

The problem? Her place of work was her home and "my employer didn't want me to come back," said Maria, noting that they had "kids in the house."

"I said, 'I don't know where I can go. We don't have a place,'" she told CNN Business, breaking into tears. She asked not to publish her real name, for fear of reprisals from current or future employers, and to not worry her family abroad. CNN Business agreed to call her "Maria."

Foreign domestic workers are required to live with their employers in Hong Kong, under a longstanding government mandate that has been contested for years.

Maria, who is from the Philippines, returned to the hospital, where she spent the night sleeping on a chair in the emergency room, along with a friend in a similar situation. But the next day, they were told by a nurse more expressly to "go away," she said.
Not knowing what else to do, they set up camp on the street.



In recent weeks, dozens of domestic workers have been cast out on the streets in Hong Kong after testing positive for Covid-19. One worker, not pictured here, said she was not allowed home with her employer over fears of contagion.

"We cannot express what [we] feel [at] that time — just crying only," said Maria.
Maria and her friend eventually found a shelter to stay in, run by the charity HELP for Domestic Workers.

Maria is one of dozens of migrant domestic workers who have been abandoned — and temporarily made homeless — in Hong Kong after testing positive for the coronavirus, according to the charity. Her story, and others like it, shine a light on deep-seated inequalities in the city that are worsening under a devastating fifth wave of Covid-19.


Pets travel in style as their owners race to get them out of Hong Kong 03:20

To be sure, workers across the spectrum are struggling in Hong Kong, given its rigid pandemic measures.

But as top companies give their employees more flexibility and even help pay for expensive hotel quarantines, local businesses are teetering on the brink of collapse. And while some expatriates can command higher salaries for simply agreeing to move to the city, the city's poorest are struggling just to afford food or basic necessities.

Heading for the exits

The widening gap comes at a time when Hong Kong is facing an exodus of expats, despite the additional benefits on offer, which continues to raise questions about its future as a global business hub.

Many foreigners have had enough of the city's unwavering commitment to its "zero Covid" policy, even as cases surge to record highs and cause more fatalities, overloading the health care system and delivering a huge punch to the economy.

Throughout 2020 and 2021, more residents left Hong Kong than came in, according to official population statistics. That marked a reversal from early 2019, when the population was going up.

Last month alone, more than 94,000 people departed the city, while only about 23,000 came in, immigration data showed.

"The recent wave of emigration is leading to a shortage of skilled workers and impacting businesses of all sizes," the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce said in a statement earlier this month.

The group's chairman, Peter Wong, said the city was "facing an exodus of educated workers on a scale not seen since the early 1990s."

"This will have a material knock-on impact on the economy," he added. "There is real cause for concern if we cannot stem the current brain drain."

The city has been largely sealed off from the rest of the world for the last two years, in part because most inbound travelers must quarantine in hotel rooms at their own expense for two weeks. Previously, the requirement was for three weeks.


The issue has increasingly forced companies to rethink where their employees should be based, if only for now.

Last month, Mandarin Oriental (MAORF) CEO James Riley told the Financial Times that the former British colony had become a "very, very poor" base due to the restrictions.
According to the newspaper, the hotel group recently advocated for senior executives to temporarily live abroad, away from its Hong Kong headquarters. Mandarin Oriental declined to comment to CNN Business.

Last year, Cathay Pacific (CPCAY) said that it would consider letting some of its pilots live abroad for a few months as aircrew continued to face arduous self-isolation measures. The carrier later said that its workers spent more than 73,000 nights in government-mandated quarantine in 2021.

French spirits maker Pernod Ricard (PDRDF) has also asked top executives from its Hong Kong office to work abroad for some time, according to unidentified sources who spoke with the FT. The company did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
Meanwhile, other players have moved away entirely.

In November, FedEx (FDX) said it would shut down its crew base in Hong Kong and relocate pilots, citing the city's "pandemic requirements."

From the start of the pandemic through the end of last year, at least 84 companies have either closed or moved their regional headquarters out of Hong Kong, according to CNN Business calculations based on government data.

Asked about the figure, a government spokesperson responded that "Hong Kong remains a competitive city globally and a major regional base for international companies."

The representative also pointed to emerging opportunities in the Greater Bay Area, a zone connecting Hong Kong, the southern Chinese province of Guangdong and the city of Macao as "a market of 86 million people." Many banks have honed in on the area as a key priority in the coming years.

The government, which includes mainland Chinese companies in its annual tally of international businesses in Hong Kong, said that the number had recently "risen to a record high of 9,049."

But the exodus amongst Western players may not slow down this year.

BASF (BASFY), a German chemicals giant, recently relocated its chief for Asia Pacific, excluding Greater China, to Singapore "after careful consideration of her office's strategic location in the region," according to the company.

The decision was based on "the requirement for proximity to relevant stakeholders and markets," it told CNN Business in a statement.

Others may be biding their time. Hong Kong recently brought forward the end of the school year for some institutions to March or April, giving families more time to reevaluate their options before the new term begins in September.

In some sectors, bonus season typically takes place around this period, too.

"I suspect there's a lot of international bankers who may be waiting till then before they decide whether they've had their fill of Hong Kong," said a person working in the finance industry, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Free flights and country clubs

This exodus means that top companies in the city are working extra hard to attract — and retain — skilled workers.

Two senior headhunters in Hong Kong said that job candidates were increasingly pricing in the inconvenience of living in the city — if they were even persuaded to do so.

"Most of them are just kind of immediately saying no," said John Mullally, regional director of Southern China and Hong Kong financial services at recruitment agency Robert Walters.

"You've got a smaller candidate pool, especially when it comes to those with overseas experience."

Mark Tibbatts, managing director of Southern China and Taiwan for the agency Michael Page, described it as "an ongoing battle" that had made it "nigh on impossible" to lure international talent.


A view of Hong Kong's skyline, captured on Wednesday.

The circumstances have revived the so-called "expat package," which had mostly been scrapped in recent years, according to both recruiters.

"Let's go back a couple of decades. Most of the senior expats in Hong Kong were on a pretty juicy package that might have included flights home, and education, and club memberships and all these types of things," said Tibbatts. "Over the last, let's say, 10, 15 years, most of that's been phased out."

Now, some of those deals are "coming back," he added.

Mullally also described a rising view that Hong Kong was becoming "a bit of a hardship posting" for expats, a term that typically refers to a place with hostile living conditions.
That perception was more common from the 1970s to early 1990s, and back then justified more perks for businesspeople, he said.

Now, companies are "going to have to try to bring that back because ... realistically, if you want to attract people, that's kind of the package you'll have to put together."

Nowhere to go

As international executives jump ship, blue-collar workers an
d the city's poorest are being left behind to face the darkening economic outlook.

It's not just in Hong Kong: Inequality around the world has worsened throughout the pandemic, with billionaires making unprecedented gains in wealth as tens of millions of people fall into poverty.

Despite a growing shortage of domestic workers in Hong Kong, "it is not easy to say whether [the pandemic] has as a whole positively or negatively impacted them," said Manisha Wijesinghe, executive director of HELP for Domestic Workers.

"We definitely have seen a number of domestic workers who are being offered higher than statutorily mandated wages due to the shortage of incoming domestic workers," she said.


Hear how restrictions in Hong Kong are affecting their citizens 02:51

"But we have also seen domestic workers being forced to take on salaries lower than the minimum allowable wage ... there is a power imbalance."

From January 2020 to the end of 2021, the city's number of domestic workers dropped from more than 400,000 to roughly 340,000, according to government statistics.
In a recent blog post, Hong Kong Labor Secretary Law Chi-kwong pointed to flight bans from certain countries as a possible reason for the slump, saying that some workers had likely been stranded abroad.

When asked about the plight of domestic workers, authorities told CNN Business that foreign workers who test positive for Covid-19 "will receive support and medical treatment like local people in Hong Kong." And, if unemployed, they will be admitted to community isolation facilities, they said.

A government spokesperson also said that it "has continuously reminded employers of their statutory obligations and requirements" during the pandemic, and "any breach of such requirements will render them ineligible to employ [a domestic worker] for a period of time."

'Zero income'

While big international firms may have the privilege to up and move, most local businesses have no choice but to hunker down.

As many as 50,000 small businesses could shut down over the city's fifth wave of Covid, estimates Danny Lau, chairman of the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises Association.

That's about one in seven such registered entities across the city — and there could be more, he said.

Despite soaring infections, Hong Kong officials have been holding onto the "zero Covid" strategy in recent weeks, introducing social distancing restrictions that have stifled local activity.

Hong Kong is facing an exodus of educated workers on a scale not seen since the early 1990s.
PETER WONG, CHAIRMAN OF THE HONG KONG GENERAL CHAMBER OF COMMERCE

Many places, such as beauty parlors and fitness studios, have been forced to stop operating for months until the current measures end.

"They don't have any income. Zero income," Lau said of those business owners. He added that some had resorted to operating secretly just to keep making a living.
Like elsewhere, small businesses had already been hit hard earlier in the pandemic, especially by the lack of tourists.

These firms were "almost half dead," said Lau, noting that some entrepreneurs had already taken out significant loans or dug into their reserves just to stay afloat.


"The worst thing is you cannot see the future," he added. "We don't know how long these restrictions will last for."

SHARKS SWIM TOGETHER

Toronto lawyer Jeremy Diamond deserves more than a reprimand, tribunal rules


Jeremy Diamond’s misleading advertising misconduct requires more than a reprimand, a Law Society Tribunal has concluded, rejecting a joint submission between the Toronto personal injury lawyer and prosecutors.

Last year, Diamond admitted before a disciplinary panel that between 2013 and 2017 he had improperly marketed personal injury legal services that he did not provide, failing to disclose “clearly and prominently” that Diamond & Diamond referred thousands of potential clients to other lawyers for fees.

In written submissions, Diamond argued his role was “not dissimilar to that of many senior lawyers who focus on business development and firm management, while serving as a mentor for junior lawyers and maintaining some involvement in individual cases.”

Diamond’s legal team, led by Toronto criminal lawyer Brian Greenspan, and law society prosecutors jointly submitted that a reprimand was the appropriate penalty, proposing Diamond pay $40,000 in costs.

However, Malcolm Mercer, tribunal chair, said he was concerned that the proposed reprimand would amount “to a mere slap on the wrist.”

That triggered more hearings, including over Diamond’s attempt to have Mercer removed as panel chair. That failed, and subsequently more arguments were held last fall on whether a reprimand was a sufficient penalty.

Last week, the tribunal released its decision containing detailed reasons why a reprimand — the most lenient penalty available to the tribunal — would be “unhinged from the circumstances of the misconduct in this case.”

“In our opinion, a reprimand is so lenient, in the context of failures of honesty and integrity in communications to very large numbers of potential clients over a lengthy period of time, that a reasonable and informed person would be concerned that the regulation of legal professions does not take honesty and integrity seriously,” the panel wrote.

After the tribunal indicated last year that it wasn’t prepared to go along with the penalty, Diamond filed a motion to withdraw his admissions of professional misconduct.

“I was never aware and I did not contemplate that a potential penalty could exceed a reprimand here,” Diamond said last year. “Had I known that that was a possibility, I would never admitted to the misconduct, and would have had a hearing.”

There are no minimum or maximum penalties for lawyers found guilty of professional misconduct, and the range can include suspension or even disbarment. Past tribunals have not accepted joint submissions on costs and have increased proposed penalties.

Last year, Greenspan said that for a guilty plea to stand, “an accused must be aware of the criminal consequences as well as the legally relevant collateral consequences.” Since that wasn’t the case here, he argued, “we say there is no alternative but to abort this hearing at this stage and go back to square one.”

Greenspan declined to comment but confirmed arguments will be held on the withdrawal motion later this month.

FIDE President Arkady Dvorkovich speaks out against the war in Ukraine

by ChessBase

3/15/2022 – The American magazine "Mother Jones", seven times winner of the "Magazine of the Year" award from the American Society of Magazine Editors, just published interviews with 36 prominent personalities from the world of chess about the war in Ukraine. One of them is FIDE President and former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, who spoke out against the war: "My thoughts are with Ukrainian civilians. ... Wars do not just kill priceless lives. Wars kill hopes and aspirations, freeze or destroy relationships and connections." | Photo: David Llada

Exclusive: Former Top Kremlin Official Who Chairs Global Chess Federation Decries Russia’s War on Ukraine

"My thoughts are with Ukrainian civilians," says Arkady Dvorkovich.

Daniel King

Note: The author is Mother Jones staff editor Daniel King of the United States, not to be mistaken for ChessBase author and popular chess commentator GM Daniel King.

Fight disinformation. Get a daily recap of the facts that matter. Sign up for the free Mother Jones newsletter.

Two weeks ago, the world’s top chess authorities voted to sharply rebuke Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The unanimous decision by the International Chess Federation (FIDE) to ban Russians from competing under their own flag, and strip the country of the Chess Olympiad slated for Moscow this summer, is extraordinary not just because it sidelines Russia from the game it had dominated for half a century, but because of who joined the chess world in repudiating Russia: former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich.

In an interview with Mother Jones, Dvorkovich, who is now president of FIDE, voiced his opposition to the war, becoming one of the very few, or only, former senior Kremlin officials to openly criticize it. "Wars are the worst things one might face in life…including this war," Dvorkovich tells me from Russia, where he says he is "safe with my family and friends."

Dvorkovich, who served at the Kremlin for 10 years, joins scores of chess leaders in decrying Vladimir Putin’s invasion. "My thoughts are with Ukrainian civilians," Dvorkovich tells me. "Wars do not just kill priceless lives. Wars kill hopes and aspirations, freeze or destroy relationships and connections."


Links

 

Two extremes at the same time: Precipitation trends determine how often droughts and heat waves will occur together

Two extremes at the same time
For Central Europe, when using multiple plausible simulations from seven different climate 
models and assuming different precipitation trends, the frequency of compound hot-dry
 events varies. In a future 'dry storyline', these compound events occur significantly more
 frequently than in a future 'wet storyline'. Maps (b) & (c) illustrate this using the example 
of Central Europe: in the case of the 'dry storyline', on average across all simulations, both 
extremes may occur concurrently at least every four years on average, while in the case of
 the 'wet storyline', it is every ten years. In the historical time period from 1950-1980, 
compound hot-dry events occurred every 25 years on average. Credit: UFZ

Prolonged droughts and heat waves have negative consequences both for people and the environment. If both of these extreme events occur at the same time, the impacts, in the form of wild fires, tree mortality or crop losses—to name a few examples—can be even more severe. Climate researchers at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) have now discovered that, assuming a global temperature increase of two degrees in the course of global warming, the future frequency of these simultaneously occurring extreme events is primarily determined by local precipitation trends. Understanding this is important, since it enables us to improve our risk adaptation to climate change and our assessment of its consequences, as they write in the journal Nature Climate Change.

The fact that  will increase temperatures over land masses, increasing the frequency of droughts and heat waves, is a certainty—as is the fact that  will alter the average amount of precipitation on land. However, it has remained unclear until now under what conditions both extreme events will occur together, known as compound hot-dry-events. The UFZ researchers have defined these events as summers in which the average temperature was higher than in 90% of the summers between 1950 and 1980, and precipitation was simultaneously lower than in 90% of those years.

"In the past, periods of drought and heat waves were often considered separately; there is, however, a strong correlation between the two events, which can be seen in the extremes experienced in 2003 and 2018 in Europe. The negative consequences of these compound extremes are often greater than with one single extreme," says UFZ  researcher Dr. Jakob Zscheischler, last author of the study. Until now, however, it was not known what the future simultaneous occurrence of these extremes depends on—the uncertainties in the occurrences estimated via routinely used  were too large to arrive at robust pronouncements.

The researchers have now used a novel model ensemble, comprising seven , to reduce and better understand these uncertainties. Each model simulation was carried out up to 100 times in order to account for natural climate variability. They examined the historical period between 1950 and 1980, comparing the results with those of a potential future climate that is two degrees warmer than preindustrial conditions.

"The advantage of these multiple simulations is that we have a much larger volume of data than with conventional model ensembles, enabling us to better estimate compound extremes," explains Dr. Emanuele Bevacqua, first author and climate researcher at the UFZ. The researchers were able to confirm the previous assumption that the average frequency of compound hot-dry events will increase with global warming: while the frequency lay at 3% between 1950 and 1980, which statistically is an occurrence every 33 years, in a climate that is two degrees warmer, this figure will be around 12%. This would be a four-fold increase compared to the historical period studied.

The  were also able to determine from the simulations that the frequency of compound hot-dry events in the future will be determined not by temperature trends, but by precipitation trends. The reason for this is that, even with a moderate warming of two degrees, local temperature increase will be so great that in the future, every drought anywhere in the world will be accompanied by a , regardless of the exact number of degrees by which the temperature increases locally. The uncertainty in the warming leads to an uncertainty in the prediction of compound hot-dry event frequencies of only 1.5%. This discounts temperature as a decisive factor for uncertainty. For precipitation, however, the researchers calculated an uncertainty of up to 48%.

"This demonstrates that local precipitation trends determine whether periods of drought and heat waves will occur simultaneously," explains Emanuele Bevacqua. For Central Europe, for example, this implies that in the case of a 'wet storyline' with increasing precipitation, concurrent droughts and heat waves will occur on average every ten years, whereas in the case of a 'dry storyline' with decreasing precipitation, they will occur at least every four years. For Central North America, these events would be expected every nine years ('wet storyline') and six years ('dry storyline'). These regional storylines for precipitation trends can be used as a basis for decisions on adaptation (for example, to evaluate best and worst case-scenarios).

However, even if we know that precipitation trends are decisive for the occurrence of concurrent droughts and heat waves, it is still difficult to predict them any more reliably: "Climate change may shift the distribution of precipitation in certain regions. The pattern of  depends on atmospheric circulation, which determines regional weather dynamics through numerous interactions over large parts of the globe," says Emanuele Bevacqua. Since the dynamic of many of these processes is not yet fully understood, it is difficult to reduce these uncertainties any further.

This finding—that a trend in one variable determines the future occurrence of two simultaneous extreme events with a global temperature increase of two degrees—may also be used for other compound extremes. For example, it can be applied to the interaction of tropical storms and heat waves, or of marine  and acidity extremes in the oceans. "In these cases, it is the trend in storm frequency or ocean acidification, respectively, that is the deciding factor which determines the concurrence rates of the two  in the future," says Jakob Zscheischler.Global warming intensifies precipitation extremes in China

More information: Emanuele Bevacqua, Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events, Nature Climate Change (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01309-5. www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01309-

Journal information: Nature Climate Change 

Provided by Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres 

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes | PNAS

IT'S A MYTH
Every tool in the toolbox: Why we need carbon capture, utilization and storage in the fight against climate change

By Jonathan Wilkinson & Steven Guilbeault | Opinion | March 14th 2022

Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson (left) and Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault make the case for carbon capture utilization and storage, a technology with its supporters and detractors. Photos by Alex Tétreault and Josie Desmarais

When it comes to climate change, here’s what we know:

Science tells us that emissions must go down — urgently. Steadily, we have to chart a path to net-zero emissions, meaning we put fewer polluting emissions in the air than we take out. And realistically, this can only happen if we use every tool at our disposal.

Later this month, our government will release a detailed plan for how Canada will cut emissions on the road to net-zero by 2050. This plan will be ambitious — after a devastating year of forest fires, flooding, deadly heat waves and more, Canadians are calling for nothing less. But it will also be achievable. And alongside a whole range of measures to cut emissions, that’s where innovative technologies like carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) come into play.

What is CCUS? Basically, it’s the deployment of technologies that capture carbon dioxide from heavy industries — think cement, steel, fertilizer, oil and gas — and then either permanently store it deep underground by inserting it into rock formations or completely repurpose it to make new products like soap or cement.

Since too much carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air is what drives climate change, taking it out of the air is an intuitive solution. And as Canadian industry shows, it works.

Take for example the cement plant CO2MENT in Richmond, B.C., that uses a CCUS “capture unit” to pipe the airborne pollution through a rotating set of filters that screen out the carbon particles from the air and reuse them for CO2-cured concrete, thus storing it permanently.

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net‐Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario, the scale-up of CCUS needs to be rapid and immense — with 1.6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year captured globally by 2030, rising to 7.6 gigatonnes per year in 2050. This is approximately 15 per cent of total greenhouse gas reductions and 190 times what is captured today. Moreover, the IEA finds that without CCUS, the cost of reaching global 2050 net-zero goals will increase by approximately US$15 trillion.

With our abundance of natural resources and skilled labour, Canada is well-positioned to lead global growth in CCUS. And since Canada is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world, it’s in our national interest to do so. As we continue to use fossil fuels in our cars and in our homes over the short- to medium-term, CCUS needs to be a key part of the transition to a net-zero economy.

Canada is already among the global leaders in this startup industry. We now host five of the world’s 21 CCUS facilities. One out of every six tonnes of CO2 that have been captured globally with CCUS is Canadian. We’re fourth in the number of CCUS patents granted, behind the U.S., China and the European Union. This technology is still in its early stages, but is already employing thousands of Canadians. It has the potential to make a big dent in cutting pollution, while creating sustainable jobs and economic growth across the country.

As a government, we want to make sure we support this innovation. That’s why we’re proposing a tax credit to help drive the growth of Canadian CCUS technologies in industries like concrete, steel, plastics, fuels and hydrogen. The oil and gas industry, which contributes 26 per cent of Canada’s overall emissions but also employs over 70,000 people directly, shouldn’t — and won’t — be excluded. That said, the tax credit cannot be used for CCUS activities designed to extract more petroleum.

In their opinion, carbon capture utilization and storage has the potential to make a big dent in cutting pollution, while creating sustainable jobs and economic growth across the country. By @JonathanWNV and @s_guilbeault. #NetZero

The tax credit is an important part of our plan to mobilize substantial private capital towards clean technologies. To those who view CCUS as being too expensive, the tax credit will accelerate the private investment, driving down costs and encouraging widespread market adoption.

When it comes to climate change, there’s no magic bullet. So let’s use every tool in the toolbox. We have the ambition, the know-how, and the plan to build a bright, healthy future for everyone.

So let’s keep at it.



THE REALITY IS THAT CCS IS NOT GREEN NOR CLEAN IT IS GOING TO BE USED TO FRACK OLD DRY WELLS SUCH AS IN THE BAKAN SHIELD IN SASKATCHEWAN
https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-myth-of-carbon-capture-and-storage.html

ALSO SEE https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=CCS


SMERSH WAS NEVER LIKE THIS
Russian spies in spotlight over Ukraine shortcomings



An aerial view shows the headquarters of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor agency to the KGB, and Lubyanka Square in front of it in central Moscow on February 25, 2021. (AFP/AFP photographer) (AFP photographer)

Stuart WILLIAMS, Didier LAURAS
Mon, March 14, 2022, 12:07 PM·4 min read


The stuttering progress of Russia's invasion of Ukraine has thrown an unwanted spotlight on the Russian intelligence services, who observers say failed to prepare the Kremlin for the realities of the assault.

Several reports have suggested that a shadowy section of Russia's powerful Federal Security Agency (FSB) has come under particular scrutiny with its leader interrogated and reportedly even under house arrest.

This has led several commentators to question if all is well at the ominous headquarters of the FSB on Lubyanka Square in Moscow, once the home of the KGB in the USSR.

Observers believe Russia had expected to make far more rapid progress in the invasion after it was launched on February 24, with forces that were welcomed rather than face fierce resistance from Ukrainians.


"People did not make clear to (President Vladimir) Putin the reality of the situation," said a French intelligence source, who asked not to be named.

"The system is hardening up, bunkering down so that Putin does not receive too much bad news," added the source.

- Claims of arrests -


In a report first carried by Latvia-based Russian news site Meduza, Russian intelligence experts Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan wrote that the first consequences of the espionage failings were now being felt.

The head of the so called 5th Service of the FSB, Sergei Beseda, and his deputy, Anatoly Bolukh, had both been placed under house arrest in an investigation, the report said.

The 5th Service is a hugely powerful branch of the FSB which oversees its operations outside Russia, notably in ex-Soviet states such as Ukraine.

It is distinct from Russia's specialist Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), headed by the longstanding Kremlin insider Sergei Naryshkin.

The head of Russia's national guard Viktor Zolotov was quoted by Russian news agencies this weekend as saying that the invasion was "not going as fast as we would like" but claimed this was in a bid to avoid civilian casualties.

France-based Russian dissident Vladimir Osechkin, who runs the gulagu-net.ru site which has exposed abuses in Russian jails, also reported the house arrests which he said were officially part of an investigation on the embezzlement of funds earmarked for Ukraine.

"But the real reason was the inadequate intelligence and incomplete and false information on the political situation in Ukraine," he said.

Osechkin's site has meanwhile also been publishing a series of letters from a purported whistleblower called "Wind of Change" claiming a climate of fear at the FSB due to its failure to warn of the resistance to the Russian invasion.

"Putin is likely carrying out an internal purge of general officers and intelligence personnel," the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.

"He may be doing so either to save face after failing to consider their assessments in his own pre-invasion decision-making or in retaliation for faulty intelligence he may believe they provided him."

- 'Poor analysis' -


FSB Dosye, an investigative site that specialises in the work of the FSB, said Monday that the reports of a full scale purge were exaggerated. Beseda had indeed been interrogated by investigators but was still in his job and not under arrest.

Bolukh had also been interrogated but had for some years no longer been the number two of the 5th Service, it said.

Beseda, according to FSB Dosye and other reports, was present in Ukraine in 2104 in a bid to assist then president Viktor Yanukovych face down a pro-Western uprising. The leader eventually fled to Russia.

The senior FSB operative was targeted by EU sanctions in July 2014 after the annexation of Crimea and outbreak of fighting in the east of Ukraine with pro-Moscow separatists.

The sanctions order says Sergei Orestovich Beseda, born in 1954, "heads a service which oversees intelligence operations and international activity."

Questions also lurk over the the role of the SVR after its chief Naryshkin was subjected to a bizarre humiliation by Putin on television on the eve of the invasion.

Western sources say it appears incontestable that the strength of Ukrainian resistance and the unwillingness of local populations to welcome Russia took Moscow by surprise.

"Before such an operation, you should start by looking at the state of the population, in what situation you are going to operate," said a high-ranking French official, asking not to be named.

"There was a very poor analysis of the state of the morale of the Ukrainian and Ukraine as a whole," added the source.

dla-sjw/jh/rlp


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMERSH


SMERSH (Russian: СМЕРШ) was an umbrella organization for three independent counter-intelligence agencies in the Red Army formed in late 1942 or even earlier, but officially announced only on 14 April 1943. The name SMERSH was coined by Joseph Stalin. The formal justification for its creation was to subvert the attempts by Nazi German forces to infiltrate the Red Army on the Eastern Front.


https://jamesbond.fandom.com/wiki/SMERSH
  • SMERSH (a portmanteau of the Russian Smyert Shpionam - Смерть Шпионам - which means "Death to Spies") is a fictional Soviet counterintelligence agency featured primarily in the early James Bond novels by Ian Fleming. While modelled on the real SMERSH organisation (which existed 1943-1946), Fleming's SMERSH expa…

COMING FOR KENNEY'S JOB
Brian Jean back in the Alberta Legislature after claiming byelection win



Sean Amato
CTV News Edmonton
Updated March 15, 2022 

The man working to swipe Premier Jason Kenney’s job took a big step towards that ultimate goal Tuesday night, winning a byelection while carrying the United Conservative Party flag.

Former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean won the riding of Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche receiving roughly 60 per cent of the vote.

Jean has been calling for the resignation of Kenney for months, insisting that the first-term premier will lose to the opposition NDP in a general election scheduled for May 2023.

The Fort McMurray-based lawyer and businessman has been rallying people to vote against Kenney in an April 9 leadership review, even turning down door knocking help from UCP MLAs in favour of that cause.

Jean, a former MLA and MP, defeated NDP candidate Ariana Mancini Tuesday.

She also finished second to Jean in the 2015 provincial election. Mancini captured roughly 17 per cent of the vote Tuesday.

Jean resigned as a UCP MLA for the area in 2018 after he lost a leadership vote to Jason Kenney in 2017.

Kenney was asked at a news conference in Edmonton Tuesday morning who he'd be rooting for in the contest.

"Well, obviously the United Conservative Party. And obviously I encourage people to get out and vote," he said, not mentioning Jean by name.

Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman finished third with roughly 11 per cent.

The byelection was triggered when UCP MLA Laila Goodridge resigned to run for a federal seat.

With files from CTV News Edmonton’s Chelan Skulski


Brian Jean after winning Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche byelection on Tuesday March 15, 2022. (CTV News Edmonton/Sean Amato)
WILL FOX WANT THEM TO COME IN
Anxious wait for Ukrainian asylum seekers at Mexican-US border





Ukrainians Sasha and Julia wait at the San Ysidro border crossing in Tijuana in northwestern Mexico hoping to enter the United States
 (AFP/Guillermo Arias)

Mon, March 14, 2022, 

After fleeing Ukraine by train and flying to Mexico via Spain, Natalia Poliakova found herself stuck at the border with the United States 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) from home seeking asylum.

"The US government says 'we'll help you' but now we've been on the street for days," Poliakova told AFP at a border crossing where a dozen Ukrainians and a handful of Russians and Belarusians were waiting.

"We're welcome (in the US) but we are not allowed" to enter, she said.

Poliakova feels the same frustration as the thousands of Central American migrants who are turned away at the southern US border each year.

In 2014, another Russian invasion had forced the 25-year-old graphic designer to leave her native Crimea and take refuge in Kyiv.

Just two months ago she had found a well-paid job in Ukraine, but left in a hurry again when Russia attacked on February 24.

After reaching the Ukrainian border, she continued to Budapest, Barcelona, Bogota and Mexico City before finally arriving in Tijuana, which borders San Diego in California.

Poliakova has used her English to help fellow Ukrainians communicate with US authorities at the San Ysidro border crossing, one of the world's busiest.

In recent days, Tijuana has seen a growing number of Ukrainians arriving to ask US border officials for asylum.

But the wait is long with a trickle of families and adults accompanied by children allowed through.

Poliakova hopes to join an aunt who lives in the United States, but said she planned to return to Ukraine in the future.

"We all want to go back home to rebuild" the country, she said.

Artem, a 23-year-old Ukrainian sailor, was in the Arctic aboard an Italian ship when Russia invaded, so he too traveled to Tijuana hoping to join family in the United States.

"I only came here because my sister lives there. If my sister lived in any other place I'd go there," he said.


A Russian woman waits on the Mexican side of the San Ysidro border crossing in Tijuana to see if she will be allowed into the United States 

Ukrainians talk to a US border officer at the San Ysidro crossing in Tijuana in northwestern Mexico
(AFP/Guillermo Arias)


According to figures from the US Customs and Border Protection, arrivals of Ukrainians at the Mexican-US border have increased in recent months after a drastic drop in 2020 and 2021 amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

In January, 248 Ukrainians crossed the southern US border, according to official data.

A 40-year-old from Russian ally Belarus, who identified himself as Andrei, said that he left his country with his wife on February 7, fleeing political persecution.

He wants to be reunited with relatives in the United States.

"If I go back to Belarus, I go to prison," he said.

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German WWII ghosts loom large in Ukraine crisis



1Parallels with Adolf Hitler have been repeatedly drawn with Vladimir Putin over Russia's invasion of Ukraine (AFP/GEORG HOCHMUTH)
GEORG HOCHMUTH

Deborah COLE
Mon, March 14, 2022, 8:36 PM·4 min read

The war weighs heavy on Ilse Thiele's mind these days as she sits in the floral print armchair in her Berlin living room, the television constantly tuned to the news from Ukraine.

"Of course all the memories come flooding back," the 85-year-old retired manager of an East German post office says, as she watches the streams of exhausted refugees meeting armies of volunteers just minutes away at Berlin's main train station.

"I feel so sorry for all those people, especially the children."

Thiele recalls the biting cold and ache of hunger on her own trek from Lower Silesia in today's Poland in the winter of 1944-45, when she and her mother fled the Russian advance on foot for Thuringia in central Germany.

World War II still looms large in Germans' living memory and public discourse, shaping the perception of the Ukraine invasion and the political debate over how to face the moment.

Germans, proud of their robust democracy, have reacted with outrage at Vladimir Putin's attempts to frame the war as a struggle against "neo-Nazi" aggressors plotting "genocide" on Russia's doorstep.

The Russian president argued in a speech last month that Ukrainian forces aimed "to kill innocent people, just as members of the punitive units of Ukrainian nationalists and Hitler's accomplices did during the Great Patriotic War".



- 'Epitome of evil' -


In a Twitter exchange that went viral earlier this month, Russia's South African embassy claimed Moscow "like 80 years go, is fighting Nazism in Ukraine!".

The German mission in South Africa quickly stepped in, saying it couldn't remain "silent" in the face of such a "cynical" statement while Russia was "slaughtering innocent children, women and men for its own gain".

"It's definitely not 'fighting Nazism'. Shame on anyone who's falling for this. (Sadly we're kinda experts on Nazism.)," the mission added in a tweet that drew 160,000 "likes".

Hedwig Richter, modern history professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, told AFP that Putin was perverting the "overwhelming international consensus" that the Nazis were the "epitome of evil" to make his case.

"It is absolutely absurd, particularly given the Jewish president of Ukraine" Volodymyr Zelensky, she said, noting that many Holocaust survivors associated Ukrainian town names now in the news with atrocities committed by the Germans.

"As a German, I am deeply offended that Putin would abuse the memory of the Germans' crimes in the Nazi period to legitimise his rule," she told AFP.

"What we're observing is how important historical remembrance is, particularly when you see how Russia, by forgetting its Stalinist crimes, is feeding an aggressive nationalism."

She said Germany had been forced to learn that the lesson of its own dark history was "not only a yearning for peace but also, in a crisis, active military defence of human rights".

Anti-war protests across Europe and throughout Germany have deployed a caricature of Putin with a toothbrush moustache in a reference to the Nazi dictator.

Historian Heinrich August Winkler stressed, in a recent essay, the singularity of Hitler's brutal military campaigns and the slaughter of six million Jews in the Holocaust -- a point of consensus in mainstream German thought.

Nevertheless he argued in the weekly Die Zeit in an article titled "What Links Putin with Hitler" that the Russian leader's obsession with a perceived "stab in the back" by the West and ultranationalist rhetoric were important parallels worthy of examination.

"Putin is now confronting Western democracies with the question of how seriously they take their much-espoused values," Winkler said, much like the initially reluctant Allies of World War II.

- 'Nasty pig' -


Historian Gundula Bavendamm told AFP Germans had a visceral response to the invasion of Ukraine due to atrocities against civilians committed by the Nazis, and because every living generation had seen waves of refugees -- after World War II, from Yugoslavia in the 1990s and most recently from Syria.

But she said she found the incessant references to Hitler problematic, not least because they obscured recent historical failings by Germany, including energy reliance on Russia, meagre military spending and "our closeness to Putin -- seeing too late what kind of man this is".

"Constantly invoking our responsibility for World War II may have kept us from important self-criticism in the last 10-15 years," said Bavendamm, who runs Berlin's Displacement, Expulsion, Reconciliation museum.

For Thiele, the Berlin pensioner, the failure to learn from the past rips open old wounds.

"My parents lived through two world wars and I lived through one thanks to that nasty pig Hitler," she said, recalling that her late husband's communist family had been prisoners at the Nazi concentration camp Sachsenhausen.

"Do they want to start a third world war? I just can't understand how, if you know anything about war, you could start one again."

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Paris graffiti legend C215 on his Ukraine mural

Paris graffiti legend C215 on his Ukraine muralC215's mural carries a quote from Zelensky: "I am neither a god nor an icon... hang pictures of your children and look at them whenever you want to make a decision." 
(AFP/JOEL SAGET)


Sandra BIFFOT-LACUT
Tue, March 15, 2022

The huge blue-and-yellow mural covering the side of a Paris apartment block is a reminder, says Paris-based artist C215, of the human cost of the war in Ukraine.

But it is also testament to the talents of a man whose graffiti skills helped him overcome a traumatic youth to become one of France's leading street artists -- a one-time Banksy collaborator who has tagged walls all over the world.

Real name Christian Guemy, the 49-year-old unveiled the huge new portrait of the Ukrainian girl last week in the 13th arrondissement of Paris.

It carries a quote from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said to his staff when he was elected in 2019: "I really don't want my photos in your offices, because I am neither a god nor an icon, but rather a servant of the nation. Instead, hang pictures of your children and look at them whenever you want to make a decision."

"It's a universal message of support," Guemy told AFP at his studio. "It challenges us to think about the ongoing humanitarian drama in Ukraine and the responsibility of politicians to do something. I can't ignore the incursions of big politics into people's daily lives."

- Heroes -


Guemy's pictures are often of regular people, such as the child victims of conflicts from Syria to Kosovo to Rwanda.

He also depicts historical figures -- heroes of French republicanism such as resistance fighters or the Charlie Hebdo journalists murdered in 2015.



In his studio, stencils of Nelson Mandela and Jean-Michel Basquiat are propped up against the walls.

"Perhaps some are too simplistic for the elites, but they are clear enough to reach a very large audience, including in working class areas," he said.

"I want my works to be more important than me, to unite people in a society where everything is divisive."

Born in 1973 in Bondy, a tough suburb on the outskirts of Paris, Guemy was amused by drawing from a young age without expecting anything more from it.

"It was a place totally disconnected from culture," he said. "I grew up in the world of the night: violence, drugs, alcohol."

His mother had him when she was 13 and his grandparents raised him as if they were his parents and she was his sister.

Five years later, his mother killed herself -- a tragedy he says he has now "overcome".

- 'Too tragic' -


Bright and multi-lingual, he landed a job in luxury furniture exports, but after a painful break-up, gave up his job to start doing graffiti in the streets, with no inkling of the success it would bring.

"I started stencilling my daughter's portrait around her house to signal my presence and channel my depression," he said.

He developed a simple method -- cutting out faces in card without any prior drawing then spray-painting them.

That led to portraits of other people -- "generally people who have done a little more than life expected of them".

Soon after he began, he was spotted by members of Banksy's team and ended up collaborating with the British artist and appearing in his 2008 documentary "Exit Through the Gift Shop".

He felt "too French, too tragic" to continue their partnership, but it had opened doors and he found himself travelling the world, putting together exhibitions, publishing books and helping to design video games.

The thing that he is actually proud of, however, is his work in prisons (24 and counting).

"That's the work that I want people to remember. The older I get, the more I realise that caring for the weakest, the most fragile, is what we should constantly be focused on."

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