KURDISTAN BY ANY OTHER NAME

All Hopes Are Dashed For International Oil Companies In North Iraq

By Simon Watkins - Aug 08, 2022, 

• IOCs get blacklisted from operating in Iraqi Kurdistan.
• 
  
• Two landmark legal rulings made in February by the Supreme Court of the Federal Government of Iraq in Baghdad paved the way for blacklisting the IOCs.
• 
  
•  The withdrawal from parliament of Moqtada al-Sadr and his 73-member power bloc has caused chaos in Baghdad.

Any hopes held by international oil companies (IOCs) that the Baghdad-based Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) was just bluffing about blacklisting IOCs operating in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq have been dashed. A letter sent on 12 June by Hassan Muhammad Hassan, the deputy director general of the state-run Basra Oil Company (BOC) called on ‘all lead contractors and sub-contractors’ of IOCs working in Iraqi Kurdistan to pledge that they would no longer work in Kurdistan and that any current contracts should be terminated within three months. This has been followed up in the last few days with an order from the BOC director general, Khalid Abbas, to ‘all lead contractors’ that orders them to ‘suspend dealing with the following subcontractors and never invite them to any future works or projects in BOC oil fields as per the licensing contracts signed with your companies.’ According to local reports, multiple oil companies working in the northern Iraq Kurdistan region (including DNO, Western Zagros, Gulf Keystone, Genel Energy, and ShaMaran Petroleum received a letter on 19 May summoning them to appear at the Commercial Court in Baghdad on 5 June), whilst the most notable of the four IOCs blacklisted a few days ago was U.S.-Irish oilfield services giant, Weatherford International, according to Iraq news sources.

These moves were all presaged by two landmark legal rulings made in February by the Supreme Court of the Federal Government of Iraq in Baghdad, analysed in depth at the time by OilPrice.com. The first of these is that sales of oil and gas by the government of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq (the KRG), based in Erbil, done independently of the central government in Baghdad, is unconstitutional and that the KRG must hand over all oil production to the Federal Government of Iraq, represented by the Ministry of Oil. The second ruling, and an even greater direct threat to all oil and gas operations of IOCs operating in the northern region, is that the Ministry of Oil has the right to: “Follow up on the invalidity of oil contracts concluded by the Kurdistan Regional Government with foreign parties, countries and companies regarding oil exploration, extraction, export and sale.” 

Legally, the issue of what oil (and gas) resources the Kurdistan region in the north or the Federal region in the south owns is unclear. According to the KRG, it has authority under Articles 112 and 115 of the Iraq Constitution to manage oil and gas in the Kurdistan Region extracted from fields that were not in production in 2005 – the year that the Constitution was adopted by referendum. In addition, the KRG maintains that Article 115 states: “All powers not stipulated in the exclusive powers of the federal government belong to the authorities of the regions and governorates that are not organised in a region.” As such, the KRG maintains that as relevant powers are not otherwise stipulated in the Constitution, it has the authority to sell and receive revenue from its oil and gas exports. The KRG also highlights that the Constitution provides that, should a dispute arise, priority shall be given to the law of the regions and governorates. However, the FGI in Baghdad and Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) argue that under Article 111 of the Constitution oil and gas are under the ownership of all the people of Iraq in all the regions and governorates. 

A practical solution to this enduring legal problem was agreed on by both sides in November 2014 and the agreement was that the KRG in the north would export up to 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from the northern region of Kurdistan’s oilfields and Kirkuk via the Baghdad-based SOMO in the south. In return, Baghdad would send 17 percent of the federal budget after sovereign expenses (around US$500 million at that time) per month in budget payments to the Kurds. Although apparently fair to both sides, the agreement rarely functioned as it should, with the KRG frequently, and accurately, being cited by the FGI in Baghdad of selling oil independently of SOMO, as per the agreement, and the FGI in Baghdad being cited frequently, and accurately, by the KRG of not dispersing the requisite funds from the budget on time or in the correct amounts. This already difficult situation was complicated further by the involvement initially of Iran and then of Russia after it effectively took control of the northern Iraq oil sector in 2017, as analysed in-depth in my latest book on the global oil markets. The unwillingness of the FGI in Baghdad to upset Iran in the first instance, given the ongoing influence that Tehran exerted over Baghdad via its military, economic, and political proxies, and then not to offend Russia, given its deadly build-out of influence across the region from that point in 2017, meant that no effective substitute deal for the 2014 agreement was made. 

Two key events, though, have conspired to give Baghdad the confidence to take the harder line on the KRG that the oil market is now seeing. The first of these was the U.S.’s ‘end of combat mission’ in Iraq in December 2021, and its similar withdrawal from Afghanistan a few months earlier – seen together by many leaders in the Middle East (and China and Russia) as a signal of a broader retreat by Washington from long-running political, economic, and military missions without a clear end-goal in sight. Indeed, former U.S. President Donald Trump had said as much not long before: “We are restoring the fundamental principles, that the job of the American soldier is not to rebuild foreign nations but defend and defend strongly our nation from foreign enemies. We are ending the era of endless wars. In its place is a renewed, clear-eyed focus on defending America’s vital interests. It is not the duty of U.S. troops to solve ancient conflicts in faraway lands that many people have never even heard of. We are not the policemen of the world.” The second factor that has emboldened Baghdad has been Russia’s increasing marginalisation in the global geopolitical mix since it invaded Ukraine in February.

These two factors together appear to have catalysed Baghdad’s resolve to move to consolidate all of Iraq’s oil and gas industry into one countrywide hydrocarbons sector from now on, administered from Baghdad, regardless of any considerations relating to the KRG in the north. The marginalisation of both the U.S. and Russia, at least overtly and at least for the time being, also appears to be a key factor behind the withdrawal from parliament of Moqtada al-Sadr and his 73-member power bloc, the largest in the legislative body. His calls for new elections are part of what he regards as a no-lose situation for him, according to a senior Iraq political source spoken to by OilPrice.com last week. “On the one hand, if they go ahead, then he can expect his bloc to gain even more seats, but if they don’t then there is no head of government, which means he [al-Sadr] still calls the shots,” he said.

Precisely what al-Sadr wants longer-term is difficult to pin down, the source added, but – despite the firebrand cleric leading countless bloody and effective assaults against U.S. troops from 2003 to 2008 and opposing several Iranian initiatives in Iraq – it may be that he is more of a pragmatist than is widely assumed. “Fundamentally, he does believe in one Iraq - and one Iraq only - not beholden to any other country, and free from any such external political interference, but he is clever and pragmatic, and he knows how to make deals with those who can sponsor him to the top leadership position for a long period of time, and that is where we are now,” the source concluded.

By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com

Iraq's Sadr sets deadline to dissolve parliament

AFP , Wednesday 10 Aug 2022

Iraq's powerful Shia Muslim leader Moqtada Sadr on Wednesday called on the judiciary to dissolve parliament by the end of next week, urging his supporters to keep up a sit-in outside the legislature.

Supporters of Moqtada Al Sadr outside the Iraqi parliament. AFP

Iraq, which has been without a new government in the wake of elections last October, has been facing a deepening political crisis after Sadr's supporters stormed parliament late last month.

They have since shifted their sit-in, held in opposition to a rival Shia bloc's nomination for premier, to outside the legislature in Baghdad's normally high-security Green Zone, home to government and diplomatic buildings.

Sadr has demanded the dissolution of parliament and early elections.

"Some may say that the dissolution of Parliament requires a parliamentary session," Sadr said in a statement on Twitter.

Preferring to stay in power and preserve "corruption", some blocs do not want to "give in to the people's demand", he charged.

Addressing the "competent judicial authorities", Sadr called for the dissolution no later than "the end of next week".

Doing so, he said, would allow the president "to set the date for early elections, under conditions that we will announce later".

Sadr justified his calls for judicial action by noting that constitutional deadlines for appointing a new president and prime minister have been missed following last year's legislative elections.

Sadr's Shia rivals from the Coordination Framework, a coalition of influential, pro-Iran factions, have conditionally accepted the firebrand cleric's call to dissolve parliament and hold new polls.

The Coordination Framework includes lawmakers from the party of former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, a longtime Sadr foe, and the Hashed al-Shaabi, a pro-Iran ex-paramilitary network now integrated into the security forces.

Maliki earlier this week had called for parliamentary sessions to resume in order to study a possible dissolution of the body.

Under the constitution, a vote passed by an absolute majority is required to dissolve parliament.

A vote can be requested by a third of lawmakers, or by the prime minister with the president's approval.

Sadr's bloc emerged from the last elections as parliament's biggest, but still far short of a majority.

In June, his 73 lawmakers quit in a bid to break the logjam.

On Wednesday, he invited those MPs and his supporters to take legal action to demand parliament be dissolved.

Related
Iraq’s Al-Sadr eyes leadership of Shia Arabs
What is Iraqi cleric Sadr's latest political endgame?
Iraq's Sadr demands new polls as political crisis escalates

 

France Looks To Keep Nuclear Power Plants Running Despite Heatwave

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Aug 08, 2022, 

• French authorities have allowed five nuclear power plants in France to continue operations and discharge hot water in rivers.
• 
  
• Power giant EDF has warned that it might have to reduce nuclear power generation this summer because of environmental regulations.
• 
  
• France's nuclear power generation accounts for around 70 percent of its electricity mix.

French authorities have allowed five nuclear power plants in France to continue operations and discharge hot water in rivers even during another heatwave as the country looks to keep its electricity generation stable and conserve natural gas for the coming winter.

Power giant EDF has warned that it might have to reduce nuclear power generation this summer because of environmental regulations as the water levels of rivers are low and water temperatures high. Water from rivers is typically used to cool reactors, while environmental regulations usually set limits on nuclear power output because hot water re-entering rivers could endanger the local flora and fauna.

However, under exceptional circumstances this year, the French nuclear energy regulator, ASN, said on Monday that it is temporarily changing the rules on hot water discharge at the nuclear power plants Blayais, Bugey, Golfech, Saint-Alban, and Tricastin.

The regulator thus prolonged the waivers for those plants, considering that the government has requested that nuclear power generation be maintained at as high levels as possible, in view of preserving gas and hydropower for the autumn and the winter, ASN said.

France's EDF has warned for weeks that nuclear power generation in France would be reduced as high temperatures of rivers Rhone and Garonne make them too hot to cool reactors.  

France has had issues with its nuclear power generation this year, which has reduced the available electricity supply in France and Europe and sent French power prices for next year surging. Half of all reactors EDF is operating are currently offline for planned maintenance or repairs.

France's nuclear power generation accounts for around 70 percent of its electricity mix, and when its reactors are fully operational, it is a net exporter of electricity to other European countries. Prolonged maintenance at several nuclear reactors this year, however, means that France—and the rest of Europe—have less nuclear-generated power supply now.   

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Arson Suspected As Huge French Wildfire Reignites

By Bertille LAGORCE with Nathalie ALONSO in Bordeaux
08/10/22

Thousands of hectares of pine forest have been destroyed in the Landiras blaze since Tuesday

Awildfire that officials thought was under control in southwest France has reignited amid a record drought and extreme heat, possibly the result of arson, officials said Wednesday.

More than 6,000 hectares (15,000 acres) of tinder-dry forest have burned in just 24 hours in the so-called Landiras blaze, the largest of several that scorched the region last month.

It had been brought under control -- but not fully extinguished -- after burning nearly 14,000 hectares, before flaring up on Tuesday, forcing the evacuation of some 6,000 people.

No one has been injured but 16 homes were destroyed or damaged near the village of Belin-Beliet, and officials said six fire-fighting trucks had burned.

"The risks are very high" that parched conditions will allow the fire to spread further, said Martin Guespereau, prefect of the Gironde department.

"The weather is very unfavourable because of the heat, the dry air, the record drought and the fact that there is a lot of peat in the ground... the fire didn't go out in July, it went underground," he told journalists.

Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said more than 1,000 firefighters were now battling the blaze, adding that investigators suspected arson may be involved.

"There were eight fires that erupted between 8:00 and 9:00 am (0600 and 0700 GMT) that erupted at intervals of a few hundred metres, which is extremely unusual," he said in Mostuejouls, north of the Mediterranean city of Montpellier, where another fire was raging in the Grands Causses natural park.

He also told reporters that Sweden and Italy would send fire-fighting aircraft to France within 24 hours to help.

"It's a major fire... much more intense and fast-moving" than at the height of the Landiras blaze last month, Marc Vermeulen of the regional fire-fighting authority told journalists.

"I opened the door last night and there was (a) red wall in front of us, the sky was roaring like the ocean," said Eliane, a 43-year-old at a temporary shelter for evacuees in Belin-Beliet.


For Christian Fostitchenko, 61, and his partner Monique, waiting at a martial arts dojo in nearby Salles, it was their second evacuation of the summer from their home in Saint-Magne.

"This time we were really scared -- the flames were less than 100 metres (328 feet) from the house," he said.

The fire was spreading toward the A63 motorway, a major artery linking Bordeaux to Spain, with thick smoke forcing the road's closure between Bordeaux and Bayonne.

France has been buffeted this summer by a record drought that has forced water-use restrictions nationwide, as well as a series of heatwaves that many experts warn are being driven by climate change.



On Wednesday, officials in western France said a wildfire near Angers and Le Mans has burned 1,200 hectares since Monday as nearly 400 firefighters struggle to contain it.

Study: Even modest climate change may lead to sweeping changes in northernmost forests

Published On:August 10, 2022

Contact:Jim Erickson

Even relatively modest climate warming and associated precipitation shifts may dramatically alter Earth’s northernmost forests, which constitute one of the planet’s largest nearly intact forested ecosystems and are home to a big chunk of the planet’s terrestrial carbon.

Study: Even modest climate change may lead to major transitions in boreal forests (DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05076-3)

That’s the main finding from a unique five-year experiment, led by a University of Michigan ecologist, that used infrared lamps and soil heating cables to study the projected impacts of near-term climate change on thousands of seedlings from nine tree species found in far northern forests, which are known as boreal forests.

North America’s boreal forests contain mostly conifers such as spruce, fir and pine. They are found mainly in Canada and Alaska but also occur in parts of northeastern Minnesota, a tiny bit of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, and northern Maine. The boreal forests are bounded on the north by tundra and on the south by temperate forest.

University of Michigan forest ecologist Peter Reich of the School for Environment and Sustainability checks the power supply and warming control box. Infrared lamps and soil cables warm experimental plots in northeastern Minnesota. Image credit: David Hansen, University of Minnesota

In the experiment, young trees at two University of Minnesota forest sites in northeastern Minnesota were warmed around the clock, from early spring to late fall, in the open air without the use of greenhouses or growth chambers. Two levels of potential 21st-century climate warming were used: roughly 1.6 degrees Celsius (about 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit) and roughly 3.1 C (about 5.6 F) above ambient temperatures.

In addition, movable tarps were positioned above half the plots before some storms to capture rainwater and mimic precipitation shifts under a changing climate. As a control, some of the trees were grown at ambient temperatures and moisture levels.

The study found that even modest (1.6 C) climate warming produced major problems for many species, including reduced growth and increased mortality. In addition, reduced rainfall amplified the negative effects of warming on the survival of several boreal species.

“Our results spell problems for the health and diversity of future regional forests,” said U-M forest ecologist Peter Reich, lead author of the study published Aug. 10 in the journal Nature.

“Present-day southern boreal forest may reach a tipping point with even modest climate warming, resulting in a major compositional shift with potential adverse impacts on the health and diversity of regional forests,” said Reich, director of the Institute for Global Change Biology at the University of Michigan’s School for Environment and Sustainability.

“Those impacts could reduce the capacity of our forests to produce timber, to host other plant, microbial and animal diversity, to dampen flooding, and—perhaps most important of all—to scrub carbon out of the air and hold it in wood and soil.”

According to scientists, mid- to high-latitude plants are likely to experience both positive and negative effects of 21st-century climate change. In some places—especially the far north—a longer growing season may boost tree growth when moisture is abundant.

In other locations, warmer and drier conditions could lead to declines in tree growth and survival. Observational studies show that both positive and negative trends in boreal forest survival and growth are already happening.

But direct experimental tests of the effects of climate warming on boreal forests across a range of soil moisture conditions are rare and have generally been limited in size, scope and duration, according to the authors of the new study.

Researchers measure saplings growing on an experimental plot at a University of Minnesota field site in northeastern Minnesota. Photo was taken in July 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Image credit: Raimundo Bermudez, University of Minnesota

The Nature report fills many of those knowledge gaps. The study used joint manipulation of temperature and rainfall to examine the likely effects of near-term climate change on juvenile tree mortality and growth at the two field sites.

“In the experiment, we are subjecting forest plots to temperatures that we won’t see for another 40 or 50 or 60 years to understand what those oncoming temperatures will do,” Reich said.

The researchers found that warming alone, or combined with reduced rainfall, increased juvenile mortality of all nine tree species and severely reduced growth in several northern conifer species—balsam fir, white spruce and white pine—that are common in boreal forests.

At the same time, modest warming enhanced the growth of some broadleaved hardwoods, including some oaks and maples, which are scarce in the boreal forest but much more common in temperate forests to the south.

However, the new study concludes that hardwoods are likely too rare in the southern boreal forest to rapidly fill the void left by vanishing conifers. Therefore, near-term projected climate change will likely shift present-day boreal forest into “a new state” of altered composition.

“That new state is, at best, likely to be a more impoverished version of our current forest,” Reich said. “At worst, it could include high levels of invasive woody shrubs, which are already common at the temperate-boreal border and are moving north quickly.”

The experiment was conducted at two University of Minnesota field stations. Reich, who joined the U-M faculty in 2021, maintains a joint affiliation at Minnesota and continues to collaborate on the forest-warming project.

For the experiment, more than 4,500 seedlings of nine native tree species—five broadleaf and four needleleaf species—were planted into existing herb, shrub and fern vegetation at the study sites. The nine tree species are balsam fir, white spruce, jack pine, white pine, red maple, sugar maple, paper birch, bur oak and red oak.

The movable tarps resulted in about a 30% lower rainfall total at randomly selected plots over the course of the growing season. Because rainfall was higher than average over the five years of the experiment, the low rainfall treatment actually represented average dry years over the past century, and the control treatments represented typically wet years over the same period. Hence, the low rainfall treatments were in no way extreme.

The other authors of the Nature paper are Raimundo Bermudez, Rebecca Montgomery, Karen Rice, Sarah Hobbie and Artur Stefanski of the University of Minnesota, and Roy Rich of the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center. The research was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, National Science Foundation, Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station and University of Minnesota.

Antarctica's 'Sleeping Giant' Might Flood the World. Here's How to Stop It

Tony Ho Tran
Wed, August 10, 2022 

David Merron via Getty

Are you a fan of the 1995 film Waterworld starring Kevin Costner? Great news: There’s a distinct possibility that it’ll become a reality in the future if humanity can’t get its act together to prevent climate catastrophe!

In a new paper published August 10 in the journal Nature, a team of Australian scientists found that sea levels could rise a staggering five meters by the year 2500 if we fail to meet the goals set in the Paris Climate Agreement. Specifically, the ice melt would come from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), one of two massive ice sheets on the southernmost continent that scientists have ominously dubbed a “sleeping giant” due to its potential to wreak havoc on sea level rise.

The Paris Agreement’s goal is to limit global temperature rise to two degrees Celsius or below (ideally 1.5 degrees Celsius). If it rises any higher, things could get very dicey, very quickly.


“The EAIS is 10 times larger than West Antarctica and contains the equivalent of 52 meters (170.6 feet) of sea level,” Nerilie Abram, an earth scientist at Australia National University and co-author of the paper, said in a press release. In other words, the ice shelf has more than enough water to flood the world well into “Waterworld” territory if it completely melts.

“If temperatures rise above two degrees Celsius beyond 2100, sustained by high greenhouse gas emissions, then East Antarctica alone could contribute around one to three meters (three to 10 feet) to rising sea levels by 2300 and around two to five meters by 2500,” Abram explained.

There is some glimmer of hope, though. If we manage to keep global warming in check and meet the Paris Agreement targets, then the sleeping giant ice shelf is only expected to contribute less than half a meter of sea level rise by 2500. That’s not nothing, but it’s certainly a lot less than the 16 feet rise that would spell disaster to coastline communities and ecosystems across the globe.

An illustration showing regions of the Americas that would be completely flooded if sea levels rose by five meters.
ROWLEY ET AL. 2007

The Inflation Reduction Act, which was passed on August 7, is also expected to be the largest investment by the U.S. in fighting global warming to date. With a $369 billion investment in clean energy, it’s slated to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. By the end of the decade, emissions could be reduced by as much as 50 percent.

However, our timeline to accomplish this is shrinking faster than an ice cube under the summer sun. In fact, compounding issues related to climate change including sea level rise due to ice melt elsewhere and warming ocean waters are exponentially increasing the chances of the EAIS melting faster.

“We used to think East Antarctica was much less vulnerable to climate change, compared to the ice sheets in West Antarctica or Greenland, but we now know there are some areas of East Antarctica that are already showing signs of ice loss,” Abram said. “This means the fate of the world’s largest ice sheet very much remains in our hands.”

Fate of the world's biggest ice sheet is in our hands, scientists say

by Durham University

Mountains protruding above the surface of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Credit: Jan Lenaerts

The fate of the world's biggest ice sheet still rests in our hands if global temperature increases are kept below the upper limit set by the Paris Agreement on climate change.

A new study led by Durham University, UK, shows that the worst effects of global warming on the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) could be avoided if temperatures do not rise by more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Staying below this limit would see the EAIS—which holds the vast majority of Earth's glacier ice—contribute less than half a meter to sea level rise by the year 2500, the researchers say.

However, they add that if warming continues to increase beyond the 2°C limit, we could potentially see the EAIS contribute several meters to sea-level rise in just a few centuries.

The research team, which included scientists from the UK, Australia, France and the U.S., has published its findings in the journal Nature.

To assess the sensitivity of the EAIS, they looked at how the ice sheet responded to past warm periods, as well as examining where changes are currently occurring.

They then analyzed a number of computer simulations made by previous studies to examine the effects of different greenhouse gas emission levels and temperatures on the ice sheet by the years 2100, 2300 and 2500.

Scientists overlooking the edge of Mawson Glacier, East Antarctica. Credit: Richard Jones

Lead author Professor Chris Stokes, of the Department of Geography, Durham University, UK, said: "A key conclusion from our analysis is that the fate of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet remains very much in our hands.

"This ice sheet is by far the largest on the planet, containing the equivalent of 52 meters of sea level and it's really important that we do not awaken this sleeping giant.

"We used to think East Antarctica was much less vulnerable to climate change, compared to the ice sheets in West Antarctica or Greenland, but we now know there are some areas of East Antarctica that are already showing signs of ice loss. Satellite observations have revealed evidence of thinning and retreating, especially where glaciers draining the main ice sheet come into contact with warm ocean currents."

The team's analysis shows that if warming continues beyond 2100, sustained by high emissions, then East Antarctica could add several meters to global sea level rise over the coming centuries. This would add to the substantial contributions from Greenland and West Antarctica and threaten millions of people worldwide who live in coastal areas.

Iceberg towers calved from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Credit: Nerilie Abram

Professor Stokes added: "Restricting global temperature increases to below the 2°C limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement should mean that we avoid the worst-case scenarios, or perhaps even halt the melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, and therefore limit its impact on global sea level rise."

When world leaders met at the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, they agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C.

According to the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, published last year, human activity has already increased global mean temperatures by about 1.1°C since pre-industrial times.

The Durham-led study showed that with dramatically reduced greenhouse gas emissions and only a small rise in temperature, the EAIS might be expected to contribute around two centimeters of sea level rise by 2100—much less than the ice loss expected from Greenland and West Antarctica. Indeed, some research shows that snowfall has increased over East Antarctica in the last few decades and, if this continues, it will offset some of the expected ice losses over the next century.

Scientists drilling a shallow ice core at the surface of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. 

Credit: Nerilie Abram

If the world instead continues on a pathway of very high greenhouse emissions, the researchers could not rule out the possibility of the EAIS contributing nearly half a meter to sea levels by 2100, but viewed this as very unlikely.

If emissions remain high beyond 2100 then the EAIS could contribute around one to three meters to global sea levels by 2300, and two to five meters by 2500.

Crucially, if the target of the Paris Agreement is met, significant ice loss from East Antarctica could be reduced or even prevented, with the EAIS's contribution to sea-level rise remaining below half a meter by 2500.

The researchers also reviewed how the ice sheet responded to past warm periods, when carbon dioxide concentrations and atmospheric temperatures were only a little higher than present.

They said that unlike the very rapid and extreme warming that we have experienced over the last few decades, that can only be explained by greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, past warming occurred over much longer timescales and was largely caused by changes in the way the Earth orbits the Sun.

A field camp on the surface of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, Princess Elizabeth Land.

Credit: Nerilie Abram

For example, the last time that carbon dioxide concentrations exceeded the current value of 417 parts per million was during a period known as the mid-Pliocene, around three million years ago. Temperatures were only 2-4°C higher than present at that time—in the range of the temperature changes we could experience later this century—but global mean sea level eventually reached 10-25 meters higher. Worryingly, evidence from sea-floor sediments around East Antarctica indicates that part of the ice sheet collapsed and contributed several meters to sea level rise during the mid-Pliocene.

Even as recently as 400,000 years ago, not that long ago on geological timescales, there is evidence that a part of the EAIS retreated 700 km inland in response to only 1-2°C of global warming.

Sky over Vanderford Glacier, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica. Credit: Richard Jones

Professor Nerilie Abram, a co-author of the study from the Australian National University in Canberra, said: "A key lesson from the past is that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is highly sensitive to even relatively modest warming scenarios. It isn't as stable and protected as we once thought.

"We now have a very small window of opportunity to rapidly lower our greenhouse gas emissions, limit the rise in global temperatures and preserve the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

"Taking such action would not only protect the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, but also slow the melting of other major ice sheets such as Greenland and West Antarctica, which are more vulnerable and at higher risk.

"Therefore, it's vitally important that countries achieve and strengthen their commitments to the Paris Agreement."

The terminus of Vanderford Glacier, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica. Credit: Richard Jones

The research was led by Durham University working with King's College London, and Imperial College, London (UK); the Australian National University, University of New South Wales, University of Tasmania and Monash University (Australia); Université Grenoble Alpes (France); the University of Colorado Boulder, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Columbia University (U.S.).Antarctic ice's deep past shows it could be more vulnerable to warming

More information: Chris Stokes, Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change, Nature (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04946-0. www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04946-

Journal information: Nature 

Provided by Durham University 

East Antarctic Ice Sheet could raise sea levels by up to 16 feet

Fiona Jackson For Mailonline - 

An ice sheet that holds about 80 per cent of the world's glacier ice has the potential to cause global sea levels to rise by up to 16 feet (five metres) by 2500.

Scientists have predicted that melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) will result in this increase if temperatures continue to rise at the current rate.

This warming of about 0.32°F (0.18°C) per decade is the result of humanity's increase in greenhouse gas emissions since the Industrial Revolution.

Researchers from Durham University modelled the effects different temperatures and levels of emissions would have on the ice sheet in the next few centuries.

If no change is made to slow the warming, the EAIS could contribute up to ten feet (three metres) to global sea levels by 2300.

The melting could be limited significantly if emissions targets are met that see global temperature rise limited to 3.6°F (2°C) above pre-industrial levels.

The EAIS could then only contribute about 0.8 inches (two centimetres) of sea level rise by 2100, and 1.6 feet (0.5 metres) by 2500.


Thickness of ice in Antarctica, showing the location of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (red outline), which holds the equivalent of 52 metres of sea level rise (alongside the UK and Ireland at the same scale). Wilkes Land (highlighted) has been referred to as East Antarctica’s ‘weak underbelly’, where some glaciers appear to be thinning, retreating and losing mass due to warm ocean currents


Scientists have predicted that melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) will result in this increase if temperatures continue to rise at the current rate. Pictured: Ice cliff at the terminus of Vanderford Glacier, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica

WHY IS CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING DIFFERENT TO HOTTER PERIODS IN HISTORY?

Previous periods of warming, that are similar to what the Earth is experiencing today, occurred over hundreds of thousands of years.

About 300,000 years ago, during the mid-Pliocene, temperatures were only between 1.3°F and 3.6°F (2°C and 4°C) higher than present.

This period of warming occurred gradually over 300,000 years and is thought to have been caused by changes in the way the Earth orbits the sun.

However, evidence of today's global warming indicates it just under 200 years ago.

The Earth's average surface temperature has increased rapidly by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) since the late 1800s.

This can be explained by the increase in our greenhouse gas emissions since the industrial revolution.

Lead author Professor Chris Stokes said: 'We used to think East Antarctica was much less vulnerable to climate change, compared to the ice sheets in West Antarctica or Greenland, but we now know there are some areas of East Antarctica that are already showing signs of ice loss.

'Satellite observations have revealed evidence of thinning and retreating, especially where glaciers draining the main ice sheet come into contact with warm ocean currents.

'This ice sheet is by far the largest on the planet, containing the equivalent of 52 metres of sea level and it's really important that we do not awaken this sleeping giant.'

Ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica were already predicted to lose ice in the centuries to come.

Greenland is far away from the North Pole so is exposed to warm air, and West Antarctica is affected by warm ocean currents as it sits below sea level.

However the EAIS is home to the staggeringly cold South Pole, and it is located on land that shields it from the sea's warmth, so it was widely assumed to be more solid.

But in 2020, evidence was found that a part of the EAIS retreated 435 miles (700 km) inland just 400,000 years ago - not that long ago on geological timescales.

This was in response to only 1.8-3.6°F (1-2°C) of warming.

In the study, published today in Nature, researchers from the UK, Australia, France and the USA examined how the EAIS responded to periods of warmth and high carbon dioxide concentrations in the past.

Around three million years ago, during the mid-Pliocene, temperatures were only between 3.6°F and 7.2°F (2°C and 4°C) higher than present.

This range of temperature change is one we could experience later this century.

However, global sea levels in the mid-Pliocene were between 33 and 82 feet (10 and 25 metres) higher than they are now.

Evidence from sea-floor sediments around East Antarctica indicates that part of the ice sheet collapsed and contributed several metres to this.

Carbon dioxide concentrations in that period also only slightly exceeded the current value of 417 parts per million.

This period of warming occurred over a very long timescale - about 300,000 years according to NASA - and is thought to have been caused by changes in the way the Earth orbits the sun.

However current global warming has only been felt for the last few decades, which can only be explained by greenhouse gas emissions from human activity.

Next, the team analysed computer simulations made by previous studies to examine what effects different levels of emissions and temperatures would have on the ice sheet.

If warming continues at its current rate, sustained by high greenhouse gas emissions, the EAIS could contribute nearly half a metre to sea levels by 2100.

Additionally, if it continues beyond 2100, it could contribute around three to ten feet (one to three metres) to global sea levels by 2300, and 7 to 16 feet (two to five metres) by 2500.

This would add to the substantial contributions from Greenland and West Antarctica and thermal expansion of the ocean, threatening millions of people worldwide who live in coastal areas.

In 2020, evidence was found that a part of the EAIS retreated 435 miles (700 km) inland just 400,000 years ago - not that long ago on geological timescales. This finding suggested it was at risk to retreating further as a result of current climate change. Pictured: Scientists drilling a shallow ice core at the surface of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet


 Professor Nerilie Abram, from the Australian National University, said: 'We now have a very small window of opportunity to rapidly lower our greenhouse gas emissions, limit the rise in global temperatures and preserve the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

However, in 2015 new targets were agreed upon by world leaders that attended the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris.

They agreed to limit global warming to well below 3.6°F (2°C) and pursue efforts to limit the rise to 2.7°F (1.5°C) by reducing their countries' greenhouse gas emissions.

The international researchers found that, if these targets are met, the worst effects of global warming on the world's largest ice sheet could be avoided.

The EAIS might be thus expected to contribute only about 0.8 inches (two centimetres) of sea level rise by 2100 and 1.6 feet (0.5 metres) by 2500.

Some research shows that snowfall has increased over East Antarctica in the last few decades and, if this continues, it will offset some of the expected ice losses over the next century.

However the researchers say sea levels will still rise due to unstoppable ice losses from Greenland or West Antarctica.


If the Paris Agreement targets for global temperature increase are met, the worst effects on the world's largest ice sheet could be avoided. The EAIS might be thus expected to contribute only about 0.8 inches (two centimetres) of sea level rise by 2100 and 1.6 feet (0.5 metres) by 2500. Pictured: Iceberg towers from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

Professor Nerilie Abram, a co-author of the study from the Australian National University in Canberra, said: 'A key lesson from the past is that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is highly sensitive to even relatively modest warming scenarios. It isn't as stable and protected as we once thought.

'We now have a very small window of opportunity to rapidly lower our greenhouse gas emissions, limit the rise in global temperatures and preserve the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

'Taking such action would not only protect the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, but also slow the melting of other major ice sheets such as Greenland and West Antarctica, which are more vulnerable and at higher risk.

'Therefore, it's vitally important that countries achieve and strengthen their commitments to the Paris Agreement.'

Professor Stokes added: 'A key conclusion from our analysis is that the fate of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet remains very much in our hands.'

Startling satellite images show 'spike melt' of ice in Greenland over three days


Greenland experienced a 'spike melt' from July 15 through 17, which saw its massive ice sheet lose enough water to fill 7.2 million Olympic-sized swimming pools.

The dramatic event was captured in a satellite image that reveals how 18 billion tons of runoff water completely changes the landscape.

The European Union's Copernicus satellite captured the the climate change-induced melt that shows areas of blue water flowing along the bedrock surface.

It was due to a heatwave gripping the country that enveloped the area in a steady 60 degrees when temperatures are typically no more than 50 degrees around this time of year, according to CNN that first reported on the matter.

Although there have been numerous melts in previous years, the recent one is two times the larger than normal and experts warn it has greatly contributed to an increase in the global sea level.

Read more here

Greenland's dramatic melt that took place on July 15-17 was captured in a satellite image. The shades of blue are actually melted ice that is making its way through the bedrock surface and out to sea