Monday, January 20, 2020

Counting the cost of Australia’s raging inferno

Bushfire damage could be as high as $9 billion and trim .5% off GDP with worst of blazes still to come
Australia’s economy will take years to recover from the bushfires that have devastated four states since September, with the damage bill already estimated at A$5 billion (US$3.4 billion) and the worst of the blazes still to come.
There could also be a significant political cost, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s indecisive response and adamant refusal to acknowledge a climate change link to the fires have seen his popularity and support nosedive.
Twenty-eight people have been killed and at least 2,300 homes destroyed as the fires burned through 8.4 billion hectares (50,000 square kilometers) of mostly rural land in New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, South Australia and Queensland — a geographical area bigger than the entire territory of Denmark.
Losses will continue to rise, as the peak period of bushfire activity does not start until February, the hottest month in southeastern Australia. It is expected to drag on well into March unless there is rainfall; some areas have had heavy falls in recent days, but not enough to end the fiery crisis.
With insurance claims of A$1 billion ($690 million) already submitted for damage to private property, Westpac bank’s economics unit has calculated that the fires will trim between 0.2-0.5% off growth in 2020 alone.
A burnt-out car is seen on property razed by bushfires in Bargo, southwest of Sydney, on December 21, 2019. Photo: AFP/Peter Parks
“That would put the cost in terms of insured and uninsured losses at around $5 billion,” the bank said in a report, noting that the total bill from disasters is generally about double the losses from insured claims.
AMP Capital earlier forecast economic losses amounting to 0.25-1% of gross domestic product (GDP), or a range of A$3-13 billion ($2-9 billion), which could give Australia zero or even negative growth this quarter.
To date the most damaging bushfires were a 2009 inferno that ripped through southeastern Victoria, costing the state A$4.4 billion ($3 billion).
Westpac noted that affected areas this time, mostly on the south coast of NSW and the same region of Victoria burned out a decade ago, account for only 1% of the economy. However, they are major producers of fruit and vegetables, beef, seafood, timber and wine. They are also big tourism areas.
The tourist industry lost at least A$1 billion ($675 million) during the crucial Christmas holiday period due to cancellations— 100% in many destinations — and there is no doubt more to come.
About 60% of bookings in areas unaffected by the bushfires were also scrapped due to adverse media coverage worldwide.
A kangaroo trying to move away from nearby bushfires at a residential property near the town of Nowra in the Australian state of New South Wales. Photo: AFP/Saeed Khan
“People have basically stopped travel,” Simon Westaway, executive director of the Australian Tourism Industry Council, told Reuters news agency. “And that’s absolutely understandable: human nature kicks in.”
Damage to telecommunications, power supplies, roads, bridges and other infrastructure is still being evaluated but will also account for millions of dollars, as will the loss of inventories and profits for thousands of small businesses.
Moody’s Analytics economist Katrina Ell said air pollution, which has affected 30% of the population, would result in reduced worker productivity, increased health spending, and lower crop yields. Moody’s, a ratings agency, has said the fires have been more destructive than the 2009 blazes.
Morrison’s conservative government, which staunchly backs fossil fuel use for power generation and rejects claims that climate change has aggravated the fires, was slow initially to respond to the disaster, though it has now offered more than A$2 billion ($1.3 billion) in emergency and reconstruction aid.
The prime minister left for a holiday to Hawaii as NSW was burning, returning only after a media outcry. He was then heckled by victims of the fires on the NSW south coast and criticized by state legislators in his own party.
A Newspoll survey, the first conducted since the worst fires began, found that 59% of respondents were dissatisfied with Morrison’s performance and only 37% satisfied. He now trails Labor’s Anthony Albanese by four percentage points, the survey showed.
Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison visits a wildflower farm in an area devastated by bushfires in Sarsfield, Victoria state on January 3, 2020. Photo: AFP/James Ross/Pool
Labor, the main opposition party, leads the governing coalition 51% to 49% in two-party preferred terms two years out from the next election. That spread could widen depending on Morrison’s perceived performance in handling the fires’ aftermath.
Morrison contends that it is not his government’s job to fight fires, but conceded that he “could have handled on the ground much better.” Now he has agreed to call a royal commission — the highest level of official inquiry — into the government’s response, providing more fuel to his critics.
Even as the summer fires are quenched, Morrison will continue to feel the political heat. Indeed, there are already rumblings that he may face a leadership challenge among his own ranks in the months ahead
Fires, then floods: How much can a koala bear?
A veterinary surgeon offers gum leaves to a mother and joey koala rescued from bushfires. Other koalas have had to be rescued from floods. Photo: AFP/Paul Crock

Fires, then floods: How much can a koala bear?

Koalas which were under threat from bushfires last week have now had to be rescued from a flood
One week ago, koalas at an Australian wildlife park were in the path of raging bushfires. On Friday, they were soaking wet and being carried to safety from flash floods.
Months of drought that have contributed to Australia’s catastrophic bushfire season have this week given way to huge downpours in some of the blaze-ravaged areas.
At the Australian Reptile Park on the nation’s east coast near Sydney, heavy rains on Friday morning sent torrents of water through its bushland setting.
Images released by the park showed soaking wet koalas clinging to gum trees, and a zookeeper carrying two of the marsupials to safety through rushing waters.
Water levels in the lagoon for the park’s alligators also rose up close to the top of the fence.
A zookeeper is seen leaning over the fence and trying to push an alligator back down with a broom as it stretches up in an apparent bid to escape.
“This is incredible, just last week, we were having daily meetings to discuss the imminent threat of bushfires,” park director Tim Faulkner said.
“Today, we’ve had the whole team out there, drenched, acting fast to secure the safety of our animals and defend the park from the onslaught of water.
“We haven’t seen flooding like this at the park for over 15 years.”
The bushfires, which began in September, have claimed 28 lives and are estimated to have killed more than a billion animals across eastern and southern Australia.
The wet weather this week has given exhausted firefighters a huge boost, helping to reduce or contain some blazes.
But dozens of fires remain out of control, and authorities have warned the crisis could worsen again with Australia only halfway through its summer.
“The contrast between the current bushfire crisis and this sudden flooding is striking,” Faulkner said.
“But we are well aware that a huge part of Australia is still burning, and millions of animals are still under threat.”
– AFP

NASA shows off next step in search for Martian life

Members of the public were invited to walk the clean-room floor at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, on December 27 to glimpse the Mars 2020 rover and speak with experts working on the mission. It was the public’s only opportunity to see the rover from inside the clean room prior to its shipment to Cape Canaveral, Florida, in February.
The Mars 2020 rover is one step closer to having its own name as the competition to name it has entered the home stretch, with NASA culling the field from 28,000 student entries to 155 semifinalists. The public will be able to vote for their favorite of the nine finalist names starting late this month. This public vote will be one factor considered in the selection of the final name, which will be announced in early March. You can find all semifinalists on the Mars 2020 rover naming-contest website.
The Mars 2020 rover mission is part of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program, a long-term effort of robotic exploration of the Red Planet. The mission addresses high-priority science goals for Mars exploration, including key questions about the potential for life on that planet. It takes the next step by not only seeking signs of habitable conditions on Mars in the ancient past, but also searching for signs of past microbial life itself.
The mission is timed for a launch opportunity in July this year when Earth and Mars are in good positions relative to each other for landing on Mars. That is, it takes less power to travel to Mars compared with other times when the two planets are in different positions in their orbits.
To keep mission costs and risks as low as possible, the rover design is based on NASA’s successful Mars Science Laboratory mission architecture, including its Curiosity rover and proven landing system.

This artist’s concept depicts NASA’s Mars 2020 rover on the surface of the Red Planet. Photo: NASA via Wikipedia

The rover is car-sized, about 3 meters long, 2.7 meters wide, and 2.2 meters tall. But at 1,050 kilograms, it weighs less than a compact car. In some sense, the rover parts are similar to what any living creature would need to keep it alive and able to explore.
To maximize its chance of unearthing traces of ancient life, Mars 2020 will land in a long-dried-up delta called Jezero. The site, selected after years of scientific debate, is a crater that was once a 500-meter-deep lake. It was formerly connected to a network of rivers that flowed some 3.5 billion to 3.9 billion years ago. The crater measures just under 48 kilometers across, and experts hope it may have preserved ancient organic molecules.
The Mars 2020 rover, which NASA plans to launch on July 17 and for touchdown on Mars on February 18 next year, will not only search for traces of ancient life, will but pave the way for future human missions. The trip will take about seven months. If all goes according to plan, the rover will come to life in February 2021 in the ancient river delta in the Jezero Crater. Its mission is expected to last two years.
The Mars 2020 rover will feature a drill that can collect core samples of the most promising rocks and soils and set them aside in a “cache” on the surface of Mars. Throughout the mission, it will collect soil and rock samples and leave them on the surface for collection by a future Earth-return mission. That would help scientists study the samples in laboratories with special room-sized equipment that would be too large to take to Mars.
Where the vehicle at the heart of the US$2.5 billion exploration will really stand apart, however, is in its ability to analyze and process samples, then drop them into tubes for pickup by another Mars mission expected to launch in 2026. Samples will be carried inside the rover until they are deposited in individual tubes or in a bunch on the planet’s surface. Only when the samples are returned to Earth will scientists be able to determine whether definitive signs of ancient life are present.
The mission also provides opportunities to gather knowledge and demonstrate technologies that address the challenges of future human expeditions to Mars. The Mars 2020 rover will help prepare for future human exploration of Mars with a technology for extracting oxygen from the Martian atmosphere, which is 96% carbon dioxide. This demonstration of new technology will help mission planners test ways of using Mars’ natural resources to support human explorers and improve designs for life support, transportation, and other important systems for living and working on Mars.
Though the rover is nearly complete and will be ready to be shipped to Florida in about a month, installing the sample tubes will be one of the final steps as another protection from contamination. It is part of a larger program that includes missions to the moon as a way to prepare for human exploration of the Red Planet.
Charged with returning astronauts to the moon by 2024, NASA will establish a sustained human presence on and around the moon by 2028 through the agency’s Artemis lunar exploration plans.
The ambitions come as a new space race heats up, with Beijing increasingly vying to threaten US dominance. China on December 27 launched a Long March 5 heavy lift rocket in a major step forward for its own planned mission to Mars in July or August this year.
Kent Wang

Kent Wang is a research fellow at the Institute for Taiwan-America Studies (ITAS), a conservative Washington-based think tank focusing on those aspects of the United States-Taiwan relations, and is broadly interested in the United States-Taiwan-China trilateral equation, as well as in East Asian security architecture. His writings have appeared in The Asia Times, The Diplomat, The Hill, The Roll Call, The National Interest, and numerous other venues. Wang has also worked for more than three decades in aeronautics science and has published widely in academic journals in the key technologies of guidance, navigation and control system design for spacecraft and space exploration.


Fighting Fire With Fire Found to be Effective in Reducing Wildfires

Prescribed fires bring the same ecological benefits as naturally occurring wildfires.


By Donna Fuscaldo  January 20, 2020


FrozenShutter/iStock

With no end in sight to the devastating wildfires that ravaged Australia, researchers at Stanford University are testing new solutions and one that holds promise is to fight fire with fire.

A team of researchers at Stanford University explained in a paper that was published in journal Nature Sustainability that prescribed burns in combination with thinning vegetation enables the fire to climb up the tree and reduce the risk of wildfires.

RELATED: SMOKE FROM AUSTRALIAN WILDFIRES DETECTED BY SATELLITES OVER SOUTH AMERICA

California needs prescribed burns on 20% of land area

These prescribe fires rarely spread beyond the boundaries set for them and bring the same ecological benefits that naturally occurring fires do including reducing disease and insects in the forest.

The researchers estimate that in California there needs to be prescribed burns or thinning vegetation on around 20 million acres, which amounts to about 20% of the land area in the state, in order to have an impact on reducing the wildfires. Over the years plans for prescribed burns have risen but half the acres that were supposed to be burned were not over concerns about smoky air, "outdated regulations" and limited resources, the researchers said in a press release announcing the results of their work.

“Prescribed burns are effective and safe,” said study co-author Chris Field, the Perry L. McCarty Director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment and Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies. “California needs to remove obstacles to their use so we can avoid more devastating wildfires.”
More needs to be done on the government level

While California is taking steps to pick up the pace of prescribed fires the researchers argued more needs to be done and called for consistent funding for wildfire prevention, federal workforce rebuilding, and training programs to increase the number of prescribed burn crews and the establishment of standards for approving prescribed burns. Their suggestions would require a multi-year commitment by both the executive and legislative branches of the government but would be well worth it if it reduced the number of wildfires.

“As catastrophic climate impacts intensify, societies increasingly need to innovate to keep people safe,” said study co-author Katharine Mach, an associate professor at the University of Miami who was director of the Stanford Environment Assessment Facility and senior research scientist in the Stanford School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences at the time of the research. “Much of this innovation is conceptually simple: making sure the full portfolio of responses, prescribed burns and beyond, can be deployed.”

A Novel Way to Prevent Wildfires

A primer on wildfires and the future of wildfire prevention with spray-on gels.


By Kashyap Vyas December 29, 2019

Scott L/Wikimedia Commons


If you have been following international news, then you know that the occurrences of wildfires have increased significantly in recent years. This is not entirely surprising to scientists who have been studying the effects of climate change, as they've sort of been expecting it, but it is still as damaging.

Wildfires are uncontrolled fires in areas covered by vegetation such as forests or bushes and grasslands. They are alternately known as forest fires or bush fires.

RELATED: ARCTIC WILDFIRES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON OUR PLANET

For all purposes, they can be called disasters.

The problem is that we cannot anticipate these fires, and even if we could, there's not much we could do to prevent them. But that’s about to change with this recent discovery.

Before we get to that, let us take a brief look at what causes wildfires and the effects of wildfires.

What causes wildfires?

Wildfires can be natural or human-made.

Human-made causes are mostly as a result of carelessness and account for 90% of forest fires. An unattended campfire or an unextinguished cigarette butt can cause these fires.

Other common man-made causes are burning debris, fireworks, and accidental or intentional arson.

Naturally, a fire can rise from erupting volcanoes or lightning. When lightning strikes trees, power cables, or any other combustible material, it can lead to wildfires.

Once the fire starts, it spreads rapidly based on the concentration of the flammable vegetation, topography, and weather conditions. A wildfire can spread quickly, sometimes reaching speeds up to 6.7 miles an hour in forests and 14mph in grasslands.

Where are wildfires most common?

Wildfires occur in some parts of every continent, with the exception of Antarctica. They are common in the forests of the United States and Canada, as well as Australia and South Africa globally.

In Europe, Portugal sees the most numbers of wildfires. Greece and Russia are also prone to fires as well.

These are usually areas with enough moisture and rainfall to support the growth of forests that also feature long periods of dry heat. California wildfires took the headline in 2018.

It was replaced by the Arctic fires in 2019.

The effects of wildfire

Wildfires can have a devastating impact on the nation. The primary loss that comes to mind is that of human lives.

Even though the premises in nearby areas are usually vacated, and the fire is contained, there is an imminent risk to lives. The California fires of 2018 claimed 85 human lives.


There is also the loss of property, which is enormous. Thousands are left homeless due to the destruction, and many more houses get damaged.

Also, huge capital goes into trying to control these fires. The number is as high as $2 billion annually just in the US.

Lastly, the loss of habitat and forest destruction is massive. 149,000 acres of forest were consumed in the forest fire. This not only destroys important natural habitats, but it also consumes thousands of trees and releases hazardous levels of pollutants into the atmosphere.

But wildfires aren’t necessarily bad for the environment. Naturally occurring wildfires can be seen as nature’s way of returning resources trapped in the dead or diseased matter to return to earth.

They also kill disease-carrying plants and harmful insects.

How are wildfires stopped?

There are two significant ways of stopping the fires from spreading outwards. One way is to use water and other retardants to douse the fire with hopes of extinguishing it.

Depending on the conditions, specific areas may be given priority if it is estimated that they will accelerate faster and might get difficult to control later on.

If the fire is too big for that, we may clear the surrounding area of the forest by removing any possible fuel source. This way, the fire gets contained within the region.

This cleared-out line is known as the control line. Ironically, sometimes firefighters may use fire to create a control line that is big enough to contain the fire.

Water bodies such as rivers can act as naturally occurring control lines. Moreover, having one around means planes and helicopters can carry water from them and drop it on top of the fire.

Once the fire begins to clear, the firemen make sure that there are no embers that are still burning as they may spark a fire again. Fighting a wildfire requires active strategizing and action.

Spray-on gels

As children, we’re taught that it's better to prevent than to cure. The exact saying applies to wildfires as well. There have been many chemicals employed to do just this.

Unfortunately, they get washed away or decay into constituents. But a group of researchers at Stanford might have just made a breakthrough, as reported in a study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The newly discovered gel-like fluid can be sprayed to make the retardants last longer. It is expected to be environment-friendly, and the initial tests have returned positive results.

They are stable enough to last entire seasons, where chances of wildfires are at the peak. If approved, it could save millions of dollars in the prevention and control of wildfires.

The technology is a cellulose-based gel-like fluid that is resistant to the effects of wind, rain, and other harsh environments, making it better suited as a preventive substance than the currently used suppressants and retardants, which act for much shorter durations.

This solution is considered “more proactive, rather than reactive,” to quote Eric Appel, the study’s senior author.

The simple idea is that the majority of wildfires break out at the same hotspots like roadsides, campgrounds, and remote electrical lines. If the forests around these areas are sprayed with this solution, the fires will get contained and easily manageable, thus saving the state millions in both damages and counter-measures.

The researchers are working with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire) to test their solution. So far, it has been tested on grass and chamise and found to work even after half an inch of rainfall.

Thus, it is established to have better resistance to rains. The next test is to see its viability in high-risk roadside areas.

RELATED: NASA SAYS AMAZON FIRES WERE ALSO FUELLED BY WATER-STRESSED PLANTS

It is said that necessity is the mother of invention. There is a huge necessity for a solution like this, particularly in high-risk areas such as California. At the same time, our unscrupulous behavior that led to these situations in the first place, calls for a solution, and preventive measures have to be taken one way or another.


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Color Out of Space (film) - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Color_Out_of_Space_(film)

Color Out of Space is an upcoming 2020 horror film directed by Richard Stanley, based on the short story "The Colour Out of Space" by H. P. Lovecraft. It stars ...
Budget‎: ‎$12 million
Music by‎: ‎Colin Stetson
Production company‎: ‎XYZ Films‎; ACE Pictures ...
Cinematography‎: ‎Steve Annis
Plot · ‎Production · ‎Release

 Rating: 6.2/10 - ‎1,556 votes
Scarlett Amaris, H.P. Lovecraft (based on the short story by) | 1 more credit » ... Nicolas Cage and Joely Richardson in Color Out of Space (2019) · Nicolas Cage ...