Thursday, May 16, 2024

Javier Milei’s extreme experiment in Austrian economics is sailing dangerously close to the wind

Milei
Milei

Javier Milei has started his libertarian economic experiment to transform Argentina. In a series of dispatches, The Telegraph’s International Economy Editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard travels through what used to be one of the world’s richest nations to examine whether “shock therapy” can work.

The world’s first and only libertarian experiment in Austrian economics has confounded its critics in one respect. Five months into the most violent fiscal shock ever attempted in a modern developed economy, President Javier Milei remains astoundingly popular.

His poll ratings have hardly moved since he won a landslide victory last November, vowing to take a chainsaw to the deformed Argentine state and chase the eternal Peronist casta from public life. A general strike has been and gone. Nothing seems to hurt him.

“Most analysts in December didn’t think this government would last three months,” said Martin Castellano, Latin America chief at the Institute of International Finance.

Milei has bet everything on crushing inflation by means of a budget surplus, asking the nation to endure a short but violent economic shock in return for sunlit uplands.

“It had to be a tremendously abrupt adjustment. There was no alternative. Weekly wholesale price inflation was running at 17,000pc in December and we were going into hyperinflation,” said the president.

“We had the worst inheritance in Argentina’s history. When a country has a budget deficit of 4pc of GDP, that is a yellow warning. When it’s 8pc, that is a red warning. Ours was 17pc, once you throw in the central bank deficit,” he said.

He can claim a win. The monthly rate is expected to drop below 5pc in May, far sooner than most thought possible. Listed prices are appearing again in groceries. Bread, rice, fruit and vegetables are falling. The food and drinks basket has been flirting with deflation.

His second win is to reach a fiscal surplus, or at least the statistical illusion of a surplus.  “This is the only basis to end the hell of inflation once and for all. If the state stops spending more than it brings in, and stops printing, there is no inflation,” he said.

Scratch deeper and the Austrian story starts to unravel. The rhetoric is a blend of Hayek’s Road to Serfdom and Friedman’s Money Mischief but the policies so far are a Latin American stew of state meddling. Plans to abolish the central bank and dollarise the economy have been shelved.

“Milei is doing the opposite of what he said would do. He sold everybody liberalism but he is actually pursuing highly-interventionist policies,” said professor Roberto Cachanovsky, author of the Argentine Syndrome.

Inflation has been repressed by controls and a badly overvalued exchange rate – or, to be precise, thirteen different exchange rates. Buenos Aires is now more expensive than Tokyo. That is not an export-led growth strategy. It is not how tiger economies take off.

Whatever the original intention, the Milei experiment is following a very different course from the German plan of Ludwig Erhard in 1948, which eliminated Nazi and Allied price controls and created a credible Deutsche Mark almost overnight.

The ‘Argentina trade’ has been a windfall for hedge funds since November. Stanley Druckenmiller, founder of Duquesne Capital, said he took the plunge after hearing Milei’s paeans to raw capitalism in Davos.

“I called up and said ‘give me the five most liquid ADRs [American depository receipt] in Argentina’. I followed the old Soros rule, invest and then investigate. So far it’s been great,” he told CNBC’s Squawk Box.

Portfolio Personal Inversiones says the Merval equity index is up 80pc in dollar terms and the average return on Argentine bonds has been 70pc. Goldman Sachs and UBS warn that the snap-back rally is largely over, code for ‘take your profits and get out’.

“Global investors have given Milei the benefit of the doubt that Argentina may not have to default after all. They were pricing in a 30pc return on debt restructuring and now it is around 48-50pc,” said Claudia Calich, head of emerging markets debt at M&G.

“What he has done on a cash accounting basis is remarkable, so hats off to him. But that alone is not enough to bring boom times. We haven’t seen the recovery in foreign direct investment,” she said.

Indeed not. The Argentine economy is close to cardiac arrest. The industrial collapse in March was hair-raising: cars -24pc, metals and machinery -37pc, furniture -40pc,  steel -42pc, and tarmac -69pc.

“Never since they started measuring the data has there ever been such a fall across the board, not even during the pandemic,” said research group Fundar.

This is what happens when you cut off funding for 2,000 public infrastructure projects, cut fiscal transfers to the regions by 98pc, stop paying state debts owed to private contractors, and cut pensions in real terms by two fifths.

“Public works are practically paralysed. We expect 100,000 people to be laid off, and each one of them hits a whole universe of other people,” said Gustavo Weiss, head of the Chamber of Construction.

The recession itself is now shrinking the tax base, causing a 13pc fall in real tax revenues in April. In a fit of libertarian rapture the president chose this moment to urge business leaders to evade taxes if they could get away with it.

“The dodgers are heroes who know how to escape the claws of the state. If you buy dollars on the black market, even better, because then you don’t have to pay a lot of stupid fees,” he said.

Unless the economy hits bottom soon and Argentina starts to feel the rocket thrust of Milei’s V-shaped recovery – so far looking like a stretched U at best – this fiscal overkill could start to become self-defeating, setting off a vicious circle of rising deficits requiring yet further cuts akin to the waterboarding of Greece a decade ago.

“We’re heading into an economic depression,” said Carlos Rodriguez, a Chicago school monetarist and ex-rector of the Centre of Argentine Macroeconomic Studies.

“There is no economic strategy. The austerity plan is simply not to pay any money to anybody. There has been a brutal reduction in state spending that doesn’t seem to follow any logic. At some point the roads and the trains are going to fail,” he said.

“Milei came out like a rockstar and the people believed him. But his remedies are as old as the hills. If the plan is just to freeze public spending in nominal terms, Milei is going to become the most hated man in the country,” he told La Nacion.

The second danger for Milei is that the exchange rate will blow up in his face. The peso is effectively fixed. A crawling peg slides by at 2pc a month but internal prices have doubled in the meantime.

“All the benefits of the devaluation in December have been eaten away by inflation. Currency overvaluation has always ended in tears in Argentina and I’m not convinced that this is going to be any different,” said Todd Martinez, head of sovereign ratings for Latin America at Fitch.

It is the lesson of the Asian crisis in 1998, and the UK’s ERM crisis in 1992. It is the lesson of Argentina’s own crisis in 2000-2001, which ended in the spectacle of president Fernando de la Rua being lifted from the roof of the Casa Rosada by helicopter as an insurrection gathered below.

“If the government has got any sense it will do what the International Monetary Fund and every economist in Argentina is telling them to do, and start to devalue a little more each day,” said Domingo Cavallo, the economic tsar of the 1990s and survivor of the de la Rua disaster.

“If they fall in love with an overvalued exchange rate, they are going to endanger the competitiveness of every sector of the Argentine economy,” he said.

One can understand why Milei has chosen to buck the market and rig the country’s most important price signal. He inherited a central bank with negative foreign exchange reserves, and a sobering calendar of debt payments, including tranches owed to the IMF and a $4.9bn (£3.9bn) swap loan from China that expires in June. It was deemed too dangerous to open the capital account.

He is now caught in a trap. The peso has decoupled so far from economic fundamentals that markets are already anticipating another large devaluation. Grain farmers are withholding much of the harvest until they receive a better dollar rate. It is a supply strike. Ludwig Erhard would have seen the threat immediately.

“People are voting with their feet. There is an invasion of Argentines in Chile and Brazil buying clothes and shoes because it’s much cheaper there,” said Hector Torres, a former IMF executive director.

“Argentines think in dollars. Nobody is going to believe anything the central bank says until it has been building substantial foreign reserves for at least three or four years,” he said.

The reserves have been rising – chiefly due to the ferocious economic downturn – but are still barely above net zero and may already be levelling out. The longer that Milei holds onto his exchange rate anchor, the worse the next devaluation will have to be, leading to another spike in inflation that will puncture his authority.

Milei’s team have been pleading with the IMF for a new package of $15bn but the Fund has had its fingers burned too many times. Argentina is already the institution’s largest borrower with $32bn of outstanding debt.

“I can say with certainty that my old colleagues at the IMF are not going to lend us $15bn to defend an overvalued exchange rate. It is likely to be a third of that at best. And they don’t want to be blamed for Milei’s shock therapy either. They want quality cuts, not indiscriminate liquidation,” said Torres.

Javier Milei’s free market revolution will remain a pious wish until he learns how to coexist with a hostile congress and with governors from opposing parties in every state. He has been able to cut through some red tape by decree power. The rental market has been opened up.

But decree power cannot be for radical change without provoking a dangerous backlash. Salvador Allende tried pushing through his neo-Marxist revolution in Chile by circumventing parliament, and it ended very badly.

Milei has yet to pass any legislation. He has sent an omnibus law to congress – dedicated “to the delinquents who tell you the state is efficient” – that would in theory give him the legal powers to slash the Argentine state to its 19th Century pre-welfare functions.

“I have 1,000 reforms coming, and after that another 3,000, and if they are passed, Argentina is going to climb 90 points up the global competition league,” he said.

“It is not good enough for me to match Germany. I want us to be like Ireland, that went from being the most miserable country in Europe to a per capita income 50pc higher than the EU average.” he said.

One wants to whisper in his ear that Ireland invested strategically in public education as far back as the 1980s. The Celtic Tiger is a vindication of the policies that he has repudiated in his own country.

Milei has disfunded anything deemed woke. The equalities institute (INADA) and the art and films body (INCAA) have been gutted. The schools, universities, and hospitals are on iron rations.

“You feel like everything is collapsing like a house of cards,” said Marcel Melo, head of the hospital at the University of Buenos Aires.

“We’ve cut surgery by 70pc and we’re down to dealing only with emergencies because we can’t buy basic supplies.”

Previous waves of liberal reform in Argentina – Alfonsin, Menem, Macri – were aimed at shutting down wasteful pockets of the state. The goal was efficiency. They were, if you like, Thacherite.

Aerial view of protesters at Plaza de Mayo Square during the first demonstration against the new government of Javier Milei
Milei's government has faced fierce opposition from day one but a broad-brush approach to cuts risks galvanising opponents - JUAN MABROMATA/AFP via Getty Images

Milei’s declared war of annihilation against the public sector is of a different character. Nobody knows what is theatre and what is real, or how far he really intends to go.

The practical limit is that Milei lacks the votes to pass his laws, and his game of political chicken against congress can only take him so far.

He is learning in the school of hard knocks that you have to do deals. He has already acquiesced as 60 articles of his labour reform are reduced to 16, with another four more are likely to go in the senate.

My guess is that Milei will in the end adapt to the tactics of his professed idol, Margaret Thatcher, who knew when to fight, and when to yield, and had a healthy respect for the uses of the state. But he will do so only after wasting much of his political capital.

The Argentine economy defies normal economic analysis. It has a thriving underground sector. People stash dollars hidden in the proverbial mattress. The country has bounced time and again from circumstances that would seem to be hopeless through a European or American lens.

The commodity supercycle will lift the Argentine economy off the reefs as it has done through so many cycles before, this time turbo-charged by the shale reserves of Vaca Muerta and the Lithium Triangle in the high Andes.

Once the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, a fresh global credit cycle will set off a wave of investment into emerging markets as it always does. Some of this excess global capital will make its way to Argentina, so long as rational policies prevail.

Will anything be left of Milei’s experiment in Austrian economics? Perhaps something, if he plays his cards cleverly. But you don’t change the anthropological DNA of a nation by tilting at windmills.

Over 80,000 Illinois people banned from owning guns still keep them, report shows

JOHN O'CONNOR
Thu, May 16, 2024 

Cook County, Ill., Sheriff Tom Dart speaks on Nov. 13, 2023, in Maywood, Ill. In Illinois, there are 110,000 people banned from owning guns because of legal run-ins or mental health issues. And three-quarters of them have not surrendered their firearms, according to data Dart will present Thursday, May 16, 2024, in seeking a more robust effort to collect them. 
AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast


SPRINGFIELD, Ill. (AP) — In Illinois, 114,000 people are banned from owning guns because of legal tangles or mental health issues — three-quarters of them haven't surrendered their firearms, according to data the Cook County sheriff will present Thursday.

Sheriff Tom Dart is seeking $10 million from state lawmakers to tackle what he calls in naming the report “A Firearm Regulation Crisis." The money would train and equip more door-knocking officers to retrieve or ensure the safe storage of weapons from those who have had their state Firearm Owners Identification cards rescinded.

The aim would be reducing the chance potentially volatile people would exhibit the type of violence seen when a shooter who wasn't allowed to own a firearm carried out a massacre at Henry Pratt Co. in a Chicago suburb.

Otherwise, the menace of revocations of FOID cards from noncompliant gun owners will spiral beyond law enforcement’s control, the Democratic sheriff told The Associated Press in releasing the report in advance. Dart scheduled a news conference Thursday morning to release his findings.

“I wish I was making this up. I wish I had someone pull my argument apart and say, ’You’re exaggerating. You’re being dramatic,'” the Dart told the AP in an interview Wednesday. “No. Do the math. At this rate, two years from now, we’re going to have 100,000 revoked FOID card owners, and there will be no contact with them to ensure they’ve had their guns properly dealt with.”

Legislation pending in Springfield would increase fees on weapons purchases to fuel enforcement, but just two weeks remain in the spring legislative session.

There are 2.42 million FOID card holders in Illinois. They are rescinded when a gun owner is convicted of a felony, is the subject of an order of protection, is dealing with other mental health or cognitive issues, or is deemed a “clear and present danger” to themselves or others by police, school administrators, or medical professionals. Notified gun owners are required to turn over their weapons for storage or transfer them to a trusted person possessing a FOID card, an action certified with the completion of a Firearm Disposition Record.

Too many don't. Historically, the approach was for local law enforcement to repeatedly send letters informing the recipient of the obligation to do so.

Dart's report found that of nearly 114,000 repealed FOID card holders, 74% — approximately 84,000 — have never accounted for surrendering weapons.

The issue came to a bloody, devastating head in February 2019 when a man dismissed from his job at the Henry Pratt Co. in Aurora pulled and fired a gun he wasn’t allowed to have, killing five employees and wounding half-a-dozen others. The gunman bought the weapon in 2014 when a background check failed to identify a 1995 conviction for aggravated assault in Mississippi. When authorities became aware of it, they revoked the man’s FOID, but he never surrendered the weapon.

The same year, a DuPage County man whose FOID had been revoked for an aggravated battery charge but who had not turned over any weapons shot and killed his 18-month-old son, then himself, Dart's report notes.

Dart's efforts in the area predate the Aurora incident. He formed a unit in 2013 of eight officers trained to deal with tense environments, including those involving mental illnesses. His staff says the office has closed 9,200 cases, collected 4,000 FOID cards, taken 1,517 weapons for storage and allowed the safe transfer of several thousands of other weapons.

“It isn’t like trying to draw some type of conclusion and be a mind reader on who’s about to commit an offense,” Dart said. “We literally have the name and address of someone who has a gun and shouldn’t have it.”

Legislation signed in 2021 created a program for funding revocation enforcement teams. The Illinois State Police has granted local police departments — including Dart's and the Chicago city police — about $1 million a year.

Illinois State Police started tracking revocation enforcement in May 2019 and through 2022 reported bringing 4,300 people into compliance with the law.

Despite recent efforts, the backlog hasn't changed since state police reported it in the days following the Aurora disaster.

Dart has a sympathetic ear in the capital, and one particularly sensitive to the subject. Rep. Bob Morgan, a Democrat from the Chicago suburb of Deerfield, was marching with constituents in Highland Park's 2022 July 4th parade when a gunman opened fire, killing seven and wounding at least 30.

Morgan's proposal would increase the $2 fee on firearm purchases or transfers to $10, with $4 of that earmarked for the Illinois State Police's revocation enforcement fund. Morgan said the legislation has yet to be reviewed by the House task force on firearms.

Despite the steep increase in the transfer charge, Morgan said many states charge more than Illinois, from $15 in New Jersey to $25 in Nevada.

“We just have tens of thousands of these weapons that are floating out there from people who have had their FOID card legally and finally revoked,” Morgan said. “We need to do better.”

'The world's fault': Zelenskyy speaks out amid Russian assault

THE WORLD BEING THE U$A


JAMES LONGMAN and OLEKSIY PSHEMYSKIY
Thu, May 16, 2024 

The situation in Ukraine is so serious that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had to cancel a planned trip to Spain and come straight to Kharkiv -- the country’s second largest city, which is again in real danger from the Russian advance.

With exclusive access, ABC News joined Zelenskyy on a tour of a hospital in the city, with Zelenskyy, where he met soldiers injured in the northern defense, and presented them with medals of valor.

“It’s really important for me to be here,” he told us, as we walked the corridors.

In each ward, he stopped as an officer read out the names of each injured soldier. He approached each bed and presented them with a medal. But this was a very rushed visit. The president’s safety is always a concern, but this trip to Kharkiv was a risk and his team moved quickly around the building.


PHOTO: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with ABC News Foreign Correspondent James Longman in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on May 16, 2024. (ABC News)

MORE: Putin shakes up cabinet, replacing defense minister as war in Ukraine grinds on: ANALYSIS

“The situation is very serious,” Zelenskyy said. “We cannot afford to lose Kharkiv.”

As he stood near the injured soldiers, he was very clear that the delay in U.S. aid has had a direct impact on the war, and the situation along the northeastern border. Hundreds had lost their lives or been wounded in the last few days, he said. Many were soldiers from this region, so it was important for him to be there, supporting them, he said.

Is it America’s fault, we asked him, what’s happening now in Kharkiv?

“It’s the world’s fault,” he replied. “They gave the opportunity for Putin to occupy. But now the world can help."

He’s always careful not to criticize the U.S. But this was a slightly more frank Zelenskyy than we usually see.

We asked how he felt the visit this week by Secretary of State Antony Blinken had gone. The U.S.'s top diplomat on Wednesday announced an additional $2 billion in aid, adding to the $60 billion promised in late April. Zelenskyy paused. I could sense his frustration.

PHOTO: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with ABC News Foreign Correspondent James Longman in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on May 16, 2024. (ABC News)

MORE: Blinken promises US arms on the way, says allies won't leave Ukraine's side

“Dialogue is good,” he said. “But we need help now.”

There’s a sense here, near the brutal fighting on the front line, that the visit wasn’t much more than a show of support.

“All we need are two Patriot systems,” he said. “Russia will not be able to occupy Kharkiv if we have those.”

I told him many Americans are worried about how much money is being spent on Ukraine. And in this election year it’s going to be an issue that American voters pay attention to.

PHOTO: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with ABC News Foreign Correspondent James Longman in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on May 16, 2024. (ABC News)

“That money is not given to Ukraine,” he said. “It’s money spent in American factories, creating American jobs… And we are not just fighting for our freedom. If not Ukraine, it would be another country.”

After the president left, we returned to some of the soldiers he’d visited.

Maxim, who nearly died in Vovchansk on Wednesday, had his leg raised with three huge metal pins keeping it straight. These are the men protecting Kharkiv. He didn’t seem too bothered with his medal.

“It’s an honor,” he told me. “But I’d prefer to award this to the men who saved my life.”



Zelenskyy canceled all his foreign trips, a sign things are critically bad for Ukraine right now

Mia Jankowicz
Thu, May 16, 2024 

Ukraine's president abruptly canceled foreign trips in the face of critical threats to his country.


Russia's new assault on the Kharkiv region has put further strains on Ukraine's defenses.


The situation could become desperate — at least until Western aid arrives.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has postponed all of his upcoming international trips, in a further sign that Ukraine is at a critical moment of jeopardy in the war with Russia.

Zelenskyy's press secretary, Sergii Nykyforov, made the announcement in a Facebook post on Wednesday, saying new dates would be worked out in the future.

Nykyforov did not provide any reason for the postponements, but unnamed diplomatic sources told Spanish news agency EFE that arrangements to meet King Felipe VI of Spain had been canceled due to the complexities of Ukraine's military situation on the front.

Zelenskyy had also been due to visit Portugal, the outlet reported.

The situation for Ukraine right now appears bleak.

In a comment piece for The Telegraph on Wednesday, former British tank regiment commander Hamish de Bretton Gordon said that Russia could defeat Ukraine within a matter of months.

"In the worst case scenario, Russia could make significant gains this summer and terminally unsettle Ukraine's defense," he wrote.

Zelenskyy's hasty travel cancellations only point to the seriousness of the situation, he added.

De Bretton Gordon blamed the US and NATO's "indecision and procrastination" for emboldening Russian President Vladimir Putin in his offensive.

For months, Ukraine has defended 620 miles of front line on what Institute for the Study of War analyst George Barros told Business Insider in April is a "starvation diet" of military aid.

Ukrainian rear defensive lines are thinned almost to nonexistence in some parts of the Donetsk frontline hotspots of Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar, the Associated Press reported earlier this month.

This has given Russian forces the chance to make small but steady gains.

And Russia's newest push — in the northern region of Kharkiv — adds a new headache for Ukraine.

"All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar," Ukraine's head of military intelligence, Kyryo Budanov, told The New York Times this week of the Kharkiv offensive.

"I've used everything we have," he added. "Unfortunately, we don't have anyone else in the reserves."

Earlier this week, a Ukrainian commander told the BBC that key fortifications had been missing in the Kharkiv town of Vovchansk, and blamed the shortfall on negligence or corruption. "The Russians just walked in," he said.

Vovchansk is not far from the border with Russia and is about 25 miles from Kharkiv city's outer limits.

It's one of 30 settlements that have seen heavy bombardment by Russian forces, Kharkiv Governor Oleh Syniehubov said on Monday. More than 5,700 civilians have been evacuated from the region, he added.

Zelenskyy wrote on social media on Thursday that he had sat down with his commanders to discuss the region's situation — described as extremely difficult — which he nonetheless said Ukrainian forces had begun to stabilize.

The Institute for the Study of War earlier assessed that Russia would need a significantly larger force to take Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, and that the offensive there may simply be a way to draw Ukrainian capabilities away from their positions in the east.
Holding on until Western aid comes

Meanwhile, chronic delays in Western support has left Ukraine badly under-supplied in ammunition.

Months of prevarication in Ukraine over the passing of a new conscription law has also thinned out its fighters.

Unable to move aggressively on the front line in recent months, Ukraine has had to "think in more 3D terms about the battle space," RAND analyst Ann Marie Dailey earlier told BI.

A ferocious drone strike campaign — largely conducted with a homegrown device — has been waged on Russian oil refineries since the start of the year, and shows signs of pressuring the country's oil economy.

Ukraine has also seen success in subduing Russia's once-feared Black Sea Fleet with drone and cruise missile strikes.

But these successes have little immediate, direct impact back on the front.

The current situation has led to increased calls for Ukraine's allies to contemplate crossing long-held red lines.

Ukrainian officials have renewed their pleas to be allowed to use US-supplied weapons on Russian soil, saying they had watched helplessly without being able to strike when Russian forces massed at the border for their Kharkiv advance, Politico reported.

And some observers are echoing French President Emmanuel Macron's assertion that NATO countries should reconsider their hardline stance against the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, even if it's simply to dent Putin's confidence.

"Too many Western leaders have ruled this out," de Bretton Gordon wrote.

This critical moment for Ukraine may also be short-lived.

US officials, speaking anonymously to The New York Times, said that once the US military aid package starts to filter through — estimated at around July — it's possible Ukraine will be able to reverse some of Russia's gains.

"This year represents a window of opportunity for Russia," military analyst Michael Kofman told the Times.

"But if the Russian military is not able to turn these advantages into battlefield gains and generate momentum, there's a fair chance that this window will begin to close as we enter 2025."
Analyst updates S&P 500 price target after CPI inflation surprise

Martin Baccardax
Wed, May 15, 2024,

U.S. stocks hit a fresh all-time high on May 15, powered in part by a softer-than-expected April inflation report that has reignited bets on a fall Federal Reserve rate cut and triggered some big changes in Wall Street forecasts.

The S&P 500 has clawed back all of its April decline, while powering to a year-to-date gain of around 12%, despite a host of warnings from Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, that interest rates are likely to remain elevated until inflation is seen moving definitively toward the central bank's 2% target.

The Commerce Department's April CPI report provided the first real piece of evidence that price pressures in the world's biggest economy could see their final leg of easing into the summer months and beyond.

Headline inflation fell for the first time this year, easing to a year-on-year rate of 3.4%, while so-called core prices slowed to 3.8%, the lowest in nearly three years.

"Looking ahead, the case for expecting a further slowdown in core CPI inflation remains compelling," said Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics. "Supply chains have normalized, wage growth is weakening, and corporate margins are flat but still hugely elevated, indicating clear scope to fall ahead."
Rate-cut foundations 'are in place'

"The foundations, therefore, are in place for a further deceleration in the core CPI this summer, enabling the Fed to start easing in September," he added.

Following the data report, rate traders immediately repriced bets on a September Fed rate cut, while still expecting no change in the current rate of 5.25% and 5.5% over the next two policy meetings, in June and July.

CME Group's FedWatch now pegs the odds of a quarter point cut in September at 52.1%, with the overall chance of any move now trading at 68.8%.

Related: S&P 500 aims for biggest gain in Fed interest rate pause history

In between, of course, comes the Fed's June policy meeting, which will include fresh growth and inflation projections — and a new set of dot plots, the Fed officials' rate projections — for the back half of the year.

That said, the prospect of lower Fed rates, alongside better-than-expected corporate profits and a resilient domestic economy, has not only lifted stocks to the recent all-time peaks. It has also compelled some Wall Street analysts to overhaul their end-of-year price targets for the broadest benchmark of U.S. stocks.



“It has become clear to us that we underestimated the strength of the market momentum," said BMO Capital Markets' chief investment strategist, Brian Belski, in a note that lifted the bank's S&P 500 price target by 500 points, to 5,600 points, the highest on Wall Street.
Market momentum is strong

"The market is behaving in a similar fashion to 2021 and 2023, years where we did not give enough credit to the strength of market momentum, something we are trying to avoid this time around," Belski and his team said.



Earlier this week, data from two closely tracked Wall Street surveys also suggested investors are seeing a clear path to new all-time highs, even if the Fed keeps to its word and holds rates steady until year-end.

S&P Global's Investment Manager Index, published May 14, showed equity-risk appetite surged to a two-and-a-half-year high this month, citing S&P 500 earnings potential over rate cut optimism.

Related: Stocks on inflation watch as S&P 500 tests record

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting tool, a real-time tracker of the U.S. economy, suggests a current-quarter GDP growth rate of 3.8%, more than twice the 1.6% pace the Commerce Department published for its recent first-quarter estimate.

LSEG data, meanwhile, estimate collective first-quarter profits for the S&P 500 rose 7.4% from a year earlier to $467.9 billion, a $5 billion improvement since the start of the reporting season.

Looking into the three months ending in June, LSEG sees that year-on-year growth rate improving to 10.6%, with profits rising to a share-weighted $495 billion.
Big fund managers are bullish

Bank of America's monthly survey of global fund managers, meanwhile, suggests investors are the most bullish they've been since November 2021. But it notes that 80% of respondents expect at least two rate cuts in order to support that optimism.


Source: Bank of America's monthly Fund Managers' Survey

Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, also notes that the Commerce Department's April retail sales report, which showed a marked slowdown in spending, also aligns with the modest downtick in inflation pressures.

"April’s retail sales and CPI reports may have just threaded the needle for what stock market bulls and the Fed needed to see," Kenwell said. "Consumer spending is the lifeblood of the U.S. economy, so no one wants to see it fall off a cliff.

"However, some weakness on the economic front could nudge the Fed toward its first rate cut, especially if it comes alongside progress on inflation."
US suggests possibility of penalties if production of Chinese electric vehicles moves to Mexico


Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, left, United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai, second from left, and Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, third from left, listen as President Joe Biden speaks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, May 14, 2024, announcing plans to impose major new tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment and medical supplies imported from China. 
(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

JOSH BOAK
Updated Tue, May 14, 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration is suggesting the possibility that additional penalties could be put in place if the Chinese makers of electric vehicles try to move their production to Mexico to avoid newly announced import taxes.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday directed the office of the U.S. Trade Representative to impose a total tariff in excess of 102% on Chinese EVs, as well as directing new tariffs on other products including steel, aluminum, computer chips and solar cells.

But Chinese EV company BYD has previously indicated that it was looking at factory sites in Mexico for the Mexican market. That raises the possibility that Chinese companies could use Mexico as a backdoor into the U.S. market.

Asked at the White House news briefing on Tuesday about new tariffs, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said, “Stay tuned.”

Tai said any penalties if China should follow through on factories would require a “separate pathway” from the Section 301 review of the Trade Act of 1974. That four-year review led to the tariffs on $18 billion worth of Chinese imports announced on Tuesday.

Tai said that China using Mexico as a workaround was “something we are talking to our industry, our workers and our partners about.”

The U.S. Trade Representative's office after Tai's remarks said that it could provisions within the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement to address unfair subsidies and efforts to avoid import duties.

‘They have crossed a line’: Australian university orders pro-Palestinian protesters to leave building

Hilary Whiteman, CNN
Thu, May 16, 2024 

Pro-Palestinian protesters occupying a building at the University of Melbourne have been told to leave by university officials, who say they’ve “crossed a line” by entering the building and disrupting class for thousands of students.

“Students have a right to protest but that is not a blank check,” said the university’s Deputy Vice Chancellor Michael Wesley in a video message distributed to media on Thursday.

“They have crossed a line when they have occupied the Arts West building … the university’s patience is now at an end.”


On Wednesday, students at the university were among thousands who rallied across the country to remember the 1948 al-Nakba or “catastrophe,” when around 700,000 Palestinians fled or were expelled from their homes by armed Jewish groups seeking to establish the state of Israel.

Dana Alshaer, from UniMelb for Palestine, said after the rally a smaller group of students “independently” decided to occupy the Arts West building, and others supported them.

Several banners have since been hung around the room, including one renaming the building “Mahmoud’s Hall” after Mahmoud Alnaouq, a Palestinian student who had won a scholarship to study in Australia but was killed in Gaza last October.

Around 1:30pm on Wednesday, Deputy Vice Chancellor Pip Nicholson addressed the group inside the building on a loudspeaker, telling them their choices that afternoon would have “serious consequences.”

According to a video posted online, she said: “In the event that you are not out of here within an hour … the university will make decisions that will regrettably and unavoidably escalate the tension.”

Students renamed the building "Mahmoud's Hall" after a prospective University of Melbourne student, who died in Gaza. - Martin Keep/AFP/Getty Images

On the video, protesters said they wouldn’t leave until the university responded to their demands, which include divesting from weapons companies and condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza.

“We come in peace,” a protester said off-camera. “We came here to learn, to study, to make an impact on the world, and the fees that we’re paying are going towards companies committing an act of genocide right now. Speak to us about that.”

By Thursday, more than 150 classes had been cancelled, affecting 6,000 students and staff, the university said. Victoria Police said it was monitoring the protest activity and hadn’t been asked to intervene.

Alshaer denied reports students had blocked the building’s doors and said the university had disabled them.

“The people here are opening the doors for anyone, students and uni staff to come in and out whenever they want. It’s not closed. It’s not barricaded,” she said.
Tension building after weeks of protest

Since the first tents appeared at universities in Australia over three weeks ago, more students have joined the protest action, demanding the institutions cut ties with weapons companies linked to Israel’s attacks.

More than 35,000 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched a war against Hamas after its October 7 attack in southern Israel, according to health officials. The Hamas attack killed 1,200 people and saw some 250 others taken hostage. Around 100 are still in captivity and Hamas’ top leadership is still at large despite the Israeli onslaught.

Protests in support of both sides have flared around the world, with a widespread pro-Palestinian movement launching demonstrations at university colleges.

The University of Melbourne says student protesters "crossed a line" by occupying the building. - Martin Keep/AFP/Getty Images

So far, protest sites in Australia have remained relatively peaceful, unlike sister sites in the United States, where police violently evicted some students amid clashes with counter-protesters.

Other universities in Melbourne and Canberra have put students on notice to leave.

Protesters at Deakin University said Thursday they’d received a second order to dismantle their camp on Thursday, in a letter shared with CNN that warned that failure to comply may constitute an act of student misconduct.

Jasmine Duff, from Students for Palestine Victoria, told CNN the students had no intention of leaving.

“We refuse to obey the directives of a university which is profiting from weapons research during a genocide,” she said.

Meanwhile, at least seven student protesters at Australian National University (ANU) in Canberra have received letters from the university telling them to leave the site by the end of Friday.

In the letter, shared with CNN by the university, students were told the institution had received “reports regarding the negative impact of the encampment on the wellbeing and safety of the broader University community,” without specifying what they were.

In a statement, ANU said it supports students’ right to protest but said “these activities must be safe and not cause unnecessary harm or damage to our campus or community.”

One of the letter’s recipients, Nick Reich, said he and others are weighing their options.

“We have to make the decision about how much and to what extent we participate in the protests against the university’s investments in arms companies supplying Israel, but we can be certain that the encampment itself is going to remain set up and will continue to fight this fight,” he said.

In his video message distributed by the University of Melbourne, Wesley called on protesters to “peacefully end the occupation.”

“Red lines have been crossed,” he said. “The occupation is now seriously disruptive and seriously intimidating for the vast majority of our staff and students who have nothing to do with the protests and are not interested in the protests.”

University of Melbourne cancels classes as pro-Palestinian activists defy orders to disband encampments


Maroosha Muzaffar
Thu, May 16, 2024 

University of Melbourne cancels classes as pro-Palestinian activists defy orders to disband encampments


The University of Melbourne cancelled classes on Thursday as pro-Palestinian students blockaded an arts building following weeks of campus tensions.

Protesters spent the night in tents inside the Arts West building at the Parkville campus, disregarding the university’s request to vacate on Wednesday afternoon.

The Victoria police said the University of Melbourne was “presently managing the situation” and has not asked it “to intervene or to remove these protesters”.

“Victoria police is liaising with Melbourne University to provide assistance when and if that is required,” they said in a statement on Thursday morning.

On Wednesday, pro-Palestinian protesters renamed the Arts West building “Mahmoud’s Hall” in honour of Mahmoud Alnaouq, a Palestinian killed in an airstrike on Gaza in October. Reports said Alnaouq was meant to start his studies at the university before he was killed.

The sit-in marked an escalation of an encampment on the university’s south lawn that has been ongoing since Anzac Day and is one of the several protests about the war on Gaza that have heightened tensions at Melbourne’s universities. Anzac Day is observed on 25 April every year and honours members of the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (Anzac) who lost their lives in foreign conflicts.

Callers to Australia’s radio station 3AW reported that classes on Thursday had been cancelled due to safety concerns. One said: “(The notification from the university) said the activity at the building was too unsafe.”

The university said in a statement there was no access to the Arts West building on Thursday due to the disruption and “safety issues” caused by the protesters. “Classes will therefore not take place in that building,” the statement added.

“The safety and wellbeing of our students and staff is our priority and we are working closely with the appropriate authorities to address this matter as soon as possible and to ensure the safety of everyone involved,” a university spokesperson was quoted as saying by ABC News.

“This week we expressed our deep concern about the disruptive intent of some external visitors to our Parkville campus and made clear that, where there are instances of unacceptable behaviour, we will investigate and take appropriate action,” the spokesperson said.

At least 6,500 students have been affected by the cancellation, The Guardian reported.

On Thursday morning, signs that read, “Uni Melb stop supporting genocide! Cut ties with Israel now!” were affixed to the glass at the Arts West building:

The entrance of the building was also graffitied with “Mahmoud Hall”.

The protest is aimed at the university’s relationship with aerospace and defence manufacturer Lockheed Martin.

The university said in a statement on its website: “Since 2016, the University of Melbourne has received $3.5m in funding from Lockheed Martin Australia to support PhD scholarships and research projects in areas such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, resource allocation and optimisation, and quantum sensing. Student projects have been in areas such as powerline safety monitoring and simplified drone control for first responders (ie fire-fighting).”

“This is indefinite. This is about disclosing and divesting and nothing will change until the demands are met,” Gemma O’Toole, an arts student involved in the occupation, was quoted as saying by The Age.

“We don’t want to be at a university that funds research for war,” she noted.

Executive Council of Australian Jewry CEO, Alex Ryvchin, said the protest camps should be disbanded.

“It’s time for all encampments to go. The time for indulging and appeasing insolent children running amok has passed.

“If the university can’t ensure the immediate safety and security of all students and staff, the police need to.”

Meanwhile, students have vowed to continue their occupation until the university ends its research agreement with companies supplying defence technology to Israel.

The protest coincides with Nakba Day on 15 May, which commemorates the displacement of Palestinians during the founding of Israel​.

University of Melbourne’s acting provost, Prof Pip Nicholson, had earlier warned that there would be “serious consequences” if protesters remained on site.

She said on Wednesday afternoon that if the students did not vacate the building, “the university will make decisions that will regrettably and unavoidably escalate the tension”.

“The choices you make this afternoon will have serious consequences,” she added.

Victorian liberal senator James Patterson said: “Vice chancellors have been far too accommodating with these protests for far too long, and they need to take action. It is not acceptable what is happening at Melbourne University.

“The university must take action, must call in the police, and must ensure that the campus and the buildings on the campus are open to all students, not just extremists.”

Among students, the class cancellations evoked mixed responses. “I think it is just and it is right. It’s a part of protecting and standing for humanity,” University of Melbourne student Eartha Davis, who had her philosophy class cancelled on Thursday, told ABC News.

“So, if we have to surrender one class for what is good and what is right then there’s no complaints on my end.”

In Melbourne, nine students at Monash University are facing potential suspension or expulsion following clashes between pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli groups.
Walmart to lay off, relocate hundreds to corporate workers

Story by Ehren Wynder • 1d • 

A view of the Walmart Marketplace sign on display during the 2023 SEMA Show, at the Las Vegas Convention Center. The company on Tuesday announced it will ask many remote employees to relocate to Bentonville, Ark., where it is building a nearly 350-acre corporate campus, complete with 12 office buildings, fitness center, daycare and other amenities
© by James Atoa/UPI

May 14 (UPI) -- Walmart said Tuesday it will layoff hundreds of corporate employees and relocate many others to its Arkansas headquarters.

In a memo sent to employees Tuesday, Chief People Officer Donna Morris said the decision was made to bring more remote workers back into the office since the COVID pandemic.

"We believe that being together, in person, makes us better and helps us to collaborate, innovate and move even faster," Morris said. "We also believe it helps strengthen our culture as well as grow and develop our associates."

The big-box retail chain is asking the majority of employees working remotely and at offices in in Dallas, Atlanta and Toronto to relocate to its corporate headquarters in Bentonville, Ark.

Some will have the option to relocate to offices in Hoboken, N.J., or the San Francisco Bay Area.

The company will allow corporate employees to work part-time remotely as long as they are in office for the majority of the work week.

"In addition, some parts of our business have made changes that will result in a reduction of several hundred campus roles," Morris said in the memo. "While the overall numbers are small in percentage, we are focused on supporting each of our associates affected by these changes."

Walmart officials said they already have spoken with affected employees and will "work closely with them in the coming days and months to navigate the best path forward." The company did not specify how many employees were affected.

In another cost-cutting measure, Walmart last month said it decided to shutter all 51 Walmart Health clinics in Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois and Texas.

The clinics, which offered doctor, dentist and therapy appointments, were part of a broad effort by Walmart in 2019 to offer a low-cost alternative in the health care industry, but the company decided to shutter the business after determining it was not financially sustainable.

Walmart's 4,600 pharmacies and over 3,000 vision centers will remain open.

Walmart said workers affected by the health center closures will be able to transfer to any other Walmart or Sam's Club store. Employees will be paid for 90 days unless they transfer to another store or leave the company.

While Walmart has made several operational cuts, it is investing in a nearly 350-acre corporate campus in Bentonville, which will includes 12 office buildings, a hotel, fitness center and daycare once complete.

WSJ: Walmart to lay off hundreds, tell many workers to move to Bentonville


Walmart supplier hiring over 1,000 PH factory workers

© Provided by Inquirer

MANILA, Philippines — Garment firm Welively Inc. is looking to hire at least a thousand workers for its factories in the Philippines, expanding its workforce by almost 50 percent, according to a local trade association of apparel exporters.

Foreign Buyers Association of the Philippines (Fobap) president Robert Young said that the company, which supplies garment goods to American retail chain Walmart Inc., is hiring for its factories in Clark, Pampanga, Cabuyao, Laguna, and Batangas.

“They are expanding and orders are coming in due to the United States and China conflict. Walmart is getting away from China and shifting its orders to other countries,” Young said in a phone interview with the Inquirer.

Young, whose trade group is buyers and exporters of garment and textile products, said that the company currently has 2,000 local employees.

READ: Garment exporters await better 2024

The company also exports about $200 million to $300 million worth of garment products annually to the United States.

The Fobap official said this would hopefully offset job cuts at other local garment makers, citing the loss of thousands of jobs at Luenthai Philippines, which manufactures apparel and other wearables for well-known international brands such as Ralph Lauren, Dillard’s, Adidas, Uniqlo, Victoria’s Secret, Coach and Michael Kors.
Absorbing the displaced

“[Welively] will now have the chance to hire all the displaced workers for the plants in Clark and Cabuyao,” Young said.

Young hopes that this positive development will allay concerns from overseas buyers that the garment sector will soon disappear.

READ: Garment exporters call for construction of textile mills

He also appealed to the government to ensure that its incentives scheme, particularly the provision of tax holidays for registered exporting companies, would be made clear for both local and foreign investors.

The Fobap official said some of their members were experiencing unwarranted audits from the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), noting that some interactions were “bordering on extortion.”

“Our factory owners have told them that they are eligible for tax holidays. So why are these BIR officials persisting to bother us and [asking] us to pay back taxes?” he asked.

 INQ

Walmart's strong forecast sparks stock surge to record high

Updated Thu, May 16, 2024 
By Ananya Mariam Rajesh and Siddharth Cavale

(Reuters) -Walmart raised its full-year forecast and reported better-than-expected quarterly results on Thursday, betting that easing inflation will drive stronger sales of groceries and non-essential merchandise like clothing and electronics, sending its shares to a record high in their biggest one-day gain in four years.

Some U.S. retailers in recent weeks have fanned concerns that consumer spending is waning, but behemoth Walmart is not one of them.

The largest U.S. retailer sounded uniformly positive in its outlook Thursday - sending shares up 7% to an all-time high of $64.22. The rally was the sharpest single-day gain for Walmart's stock since March 2020, and it helped lift the Dow industrials past 40,000 for the first time.

U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in April, but domestic demand has shown signs of cooling as Americans struggle with higher rents, gas prices and car insurance premiums. In the 12 months through April, the consumer price index was up 3.4%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Wednesday, though far below the 9.1% pace hit in June 2022.

"These are not inflation-driven results," Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on a post-earnings call.

Results were driven by more visits to stores and the website by wealthier shoppers and the price gaps it is maintaining against rivals, McMillon said.

In Thursday's report, Walmart said total U.S. comparable sales rose 3.9%, excluding fuel, in its first quarter ended April 30. The average bill at the cash register was flat but the number of transactions rose. Analysts expected those sales to rise 3.15%, according to LSEG.

Online sales in the United States surged 22%, surpassing the 17% growth Walmart posted during the typically robust holiday season.

Growth was driven by Walmart's pickup & delivery services and increased sales of items like men's, women's and children's apparel through its third-party marketplace, which now offers more than 420 million items of mostly discretionary products. Walmart attributed much of the online gains to households earning more than $100,000 per year.

While Americans have generally managed to navigate through higher prices, prolonged inflation has sparked worries that lower-income consumers might be more pressured and potentially slow down an anticipated recovery in spending.

Walmart executives said that lower-income consumers maintained their spending habits in the quarter but tended to prioritize less-expensive items. They also noted that the price gap between eating at home and dining outside had increased, boosting its grocery business, which accounts for about 60% of total revenues.

A 45% increase in the number of food and consumables items it offered on discounts, which it calls rollbacks, in April resonated strongly with shoppers.

"As we continue to work closely with our suppliers to lower cost, we're managing our ... competitive price gaps and customers are responding favorably, resulting in sustained sales growth and higher gross margins," Walmart's finance chief John David Rainey said.

Gross margins rose about 0.4%, helped by newer business such as advertising and Walmart+ membership, Rainey said.

Telsey Advisory analyst Joseph Feldman said Walmart's strong results could bode poorly for the rest of retail as its performance indicates it is taking market share. Target reports results on May 22.

The retailer reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of 60 cents per share, easily beating the 52-cent average forecast. Total revenue of $161.51 billion also topped estimates.

For its fiscal year ending January 2025, Walmart expects sales to rise at the high end or slightly above its prior forecast of 3% to 4% growth, and adjusted profit per share to be at the high end or slightly above its prior estimate of $2.23 to $2.37.

(Reporting by Ananya Mariam Rajesh in Bengaluru and Siddharth Cavale in New YorkEditing by Nick Zieminski and Will Dunham)



Walmart Posts Sales Growth, Raises Earnings Outlook for the Year

© Provided by The Wall Street Journal

Walmart’s sales continued to grow as American shoppers kept flocking to its stores for inexpensive everyday necessities.

U.S. comparable sales, or those from digital channels and stores operating at least 12 months, rose 3.8% in the quarter ended April 26. That was slower growth than last year, when comparatively higher prices sent sales soaring.

In the U.S., more people shopped at Walmart and bought more products, but the average amount spent per visit was flat compared with the same quarter last year. The retailer is gaining market share among higher-income households, a group it defines as households earning $100,000 or more a year, especially in grocery, executives said. The company raised its sales and profit expectations for the full year.

Walmart shares rose over 6% to $64 in morning trading. The company split its stock earlier this year.

“We are certainly a beneficiary of the overall economic environment where people are looking for value,” said Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey in an interview. At the same time, more shoppers are thinking about Walmart for convenience as well, he said. The company’s U.S. e-commerce sales grew 22% in the quarter, slightly higher growth than in previous quarters, driven by online orders fulfilled by stores in store parking lots or through home delivery.

Related video: Walmart beat quarterly earnings and revenue estimates (CNBC)
Duration 3:40  View on Watch


Bloomberg
1:52

CNBCCFRA: 
Walmart is gaining significant market share in grocery and general merchandise
3:11


0:56


While retail prices remain high compared with a few years ago, they are cooling, Rainey said. “Pricing is kind of in check,” he said. Shoppers continue to spend cautiously on nonfood items, he said, and more are gravitating to store brand products. In addition, inventory is lean, all of which has helped push sales and profit higher.

“These are not inflation-driven results,” said Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon on a call with analysts Thursday. Shoppers are coming for more than low prices, said McMillon. “Whether the environment is inflationary or deflationary, whether customers have more money or less money, if we’re doing a good job on the items and prices and the service we provide,” the company will continue to grow, he said.

Walmart said one-third of the quarter’s revenue growth came from new sources of non-retail business such as advertising and data.

Walmart has grown steadily throughout the pandemic, first as shoppers rushed to stores in search of toilet paper and other basics, then as inflation sent shoppers looking for relative deals on groceries.

Some other retailers have struggled to increase sales without a pandemic boost. Earlier this week Home Depot said comparable sales fell 2.8% in the most recent quarter as high interest rates push customers to delay larger renovations and focus on smaller projects.

U.S. inflation eased slightly in April, the Labor Department said this week, following three months in which consumer prices rose more quickly than expected. Overall U.S. retail sales were flat last month, compared with the previous month. At Walmart, sales growth slowed slightly in April, said Rainey, as the Easter holiday fell earlier in March this year and weather hurt sales. So far, May sales are in line with the most recent quarter overall, he said.

Walmart executives have been focused on increasing spending beyond groceries and everyday necessities to grow. In addition, earlier this year Walmart said it has plans to build new stores, its first major store expansion in nearly a decade. It also reached a $2.3 billion deal to buy television maker Vizio, a major bet to make ad sales a new revenue source. And last month Walmart launched a line of premium foods in a bid to draw new shoppers and encourage current customers to spend more.

Walmart’s net income hit $5.1 billion in the quarter, up from $1.67 billion in the same period last year, including equity investments. Walmart is cutting costs in some areas. This week Walmart told workers it would cut hundreds of corporate jobs and ask most remote workers to move to offices. Last month Walmart said it would close all 51 of the health clinics it has opened over the past five years.


Walmart said full-year net sales are likely to come in at the high end or slightly above its previously expected range of a 3% to 4% increase. Operating income will also likely hit the high end or slightly above its previously expected range of a 4% to 6% increase, the company said Thursday.

Write to Sarah Nassauer at Sarah.Nassauer@wsj.com

China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversification

BUYS GOLD




Masaki Kondo and Iris Ouyang
Wed, May 15, 2024, 


(Bloomberg) -- China sold a record amount of Treasury and US agency bonds in the first quarter, highlighting the Asian nation’s move to diversify away from American assets as trade tensions persist.

Beijing offloaded a total of $53.3 billion of Treasuries and agency bonds combined in the first quarter, according to calculations based on the latest data from the US Department of the Treasury. Belgium, often seen as a custodian of China’s holdings, disposed of $22 billion of Treasuries during the period.

China’s investments in the US are garnering renewed investor attention amid signs that tensions between the world’s largest economies may worsen. President Joe Biden has unveiled sweeping tariff hikes on a range of Chinese imports, while his predecessor Donald Trump said he might impose a levy of more than 60% on Chinese goods if elected.

“As China is selling both despite the fact that we are closer to a Fed rate-cut cycle, there should be a clear intention of diversifying away from US dollar holdings,” said Stephen Chiu, chief Asia foreign-exchange and rates strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “China’s selling of US securities could speed up as US-China trade war resumes” especially if Trump returns as president, he said.

With China selling dollar assets, its holdings of gold have risen in the nation’s official reserves. The share of the precious metal in the reserves climbed to 4.9% in April, the highest according to central bank data going back to 2015.

China and countries with close ties to it have increased their holdings of gold in foreign-exchange reserves since 2015, while countries in the US bloc have kept them broadly stable, Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said in a speech this month. “This suggests that gold purchases by some central banks may have been driven by concerns about sanctions risk,” she said.

--With assistance from James Mayger.
US Supreme Court sides with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, spurning a conservative attack


The U.S. Supreme Court is seen, April 25, 2024, in Washington. 
(AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib, File)


MARK SHERMAN
Updated Thu, May 16, 2024, 

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a conservative-led attack that could have undermined the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The justices ruled 7-2 that the way the CFPB is funded does not violate the Constitution, reversing a lower court. Justice Clarence Thomas wrote the majority opinion, splitting with his frequent allies, Justices Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch, who dissented.


The CFPB was created after the 2008 financial crisis to regulate mortgages, car loans and other consumer finance. The case was brought by payday lenders who object to a bureau rule that limits their ability to withdraw funds directly from borrowers' bank accounts. It's among several major challenges to federal regulatory agencies on the docket this term for a court that has for more than a decade been open to limits on their operations.

The CFPB, the brainchild of Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, has long been opposed by Republicans and their financial backers. The bureau says it has returned $19 billion to consumers since its creation.

Unlike most federal agencies, the consumer bureau does not rely on the annual budget process in Congress. Instead, it is funded directly by the Federal Reserve, with a current annual limit of around $600 million.

The federal appeals court in New Orleans, in a novel ruling, held that the funding violated the Constitution’s appropriations clause because it improperly shields the CFPB from congressional supervision.

Thomas reached back to the earliest days of the Constitution in his majority opinion to note that “the Bureau's funding mechanism fits comfortably with the First Congress' appropriations practice.”

In dissent, Alito wrote, “The Court upholds a novel statutory scheme under which the powerful Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) may bankroll its own agenda without any congressional control or oversight.”

The CFPB case was argued more than seven months ago, during the first week of the court’s term. Lopsided decisions like Thursday's 7-2 vote typically don't take so long, but Alito's dissent was longer than the majority opinion, and two other justices, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, wrote separate opinions even though they both were part of the majority.

Consumer groups praised the decision, as did a bureau spokesman.

“For years, lawbreaking companies and Wall Street lobbyists have been scheming to defund essential consumer protection enforcement," bureau spokesman Sam Gifford said in a statement. “The Supreme Court has rejected their radical theory that would have devastated the American financial markets. The Court repudiated the arguments of the payday loan lobby and made it clear that the CFPB is here to stay.”

While the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and some other business interests backed the payday lenders, mortgage bankers and other sectors regulated by the CFPB cautioned the court to avoid a broad ruling that could unsettle the markets.

In 2020, the court decided another CFPB case, ruling that Congress had improperly insulated the head of the bureau from removal. The justices said the director could be replaced by the president at will but allowed the bureau to continue to operate.

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