Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Dominique Méda: The case for an ecological reconversion

“We need a more democratic Europe, with a Parliament that has more power, no longer yields to the Commission and refuses to accept petty deals between states. We have nothing to gain from a return to haggling between nation-states, or agreements made in secret, as happened with the latest social directives,” says Dominique Méda, French sociologist and philosopher, author of important works on ecological change and labor reform. Her book Democratize Work: The Case for Reorganizing the Economy (translated into Italian as “Il manifesto del lavoro. Democratizzare. Demercificare. Disinquinare”, ed. Castelvecchi) was released in English in 2022.

We interviewed her in Florence, where she is currently a visiting researcher at the Scuola Normale’s Ciampi Institute.

Mario Draghi says that a paradigm shift is needed. Europe should finance an “eco-digital” transition, military security and economic and social security. What do you think about this?

I fully agree with the analysis about the need for a paradigm shift. But I think the paradigm we need is more radical. For my part, I use the notion of ecological reconversion, which means that we have to, on the one hand, undergo a form of conversion, a radical change in our representations, and, on the other hand, organize the restructuring of our economies. I think the fight against climate change and biodiversity loss has to become an absolute priority. I’m not sure Mario Draghi is on the same wavelength.

How so?

It would require European and national-level planning, a radical reduction in material consumption, a renunciation of GDP growth, the protection of national and European products through a form of protectionism and a revision of World Trade Organization rules, priority given to the public sector over the private sector, an organized distribution of raw materials.

Such policies seem to me to be the opposite of the neoliberal policies that animate the European Union.

Yes, but the idea of an ecological crossroads has run through the history of European institutions. In 1972, after reading the report “The Limits to Development,” European Commission Vice President Sicco Mansholt proposed to Commission President Franco Maria Malfatti to launch a comprehensive program of ecological change. I highly recommend reading this program. Unfortunately, over the past 50 years, the institutions and elites have lost the memory of these struggles.

Today, major European leaders insist on the need to finance the military industry. Doesn’t it seem to you that Europe is changing towards an even more unjust model?

Yes, that’s true. On the one hand, there are many threats from outside empires, and, unfortunately, we have to be ready to face them. On the other hand, Europe’s temptation to close in on itself is in complete contradiction to what we should be doing: organizing global cooperation to devote all our forces to fighting the enormous ecological threat that has begun to make the world uninhabitable. Besides diverting public attention from this serious problem, the current military and trade wars are exacerbating climate change and mobilizing enormous human and financial resources that should be devoted to environmental investments.

Some say that a green transition in production would result in job losses.

That is a possibility, but it’s not the only one. I am behind the idea that, if we manage to get it right, the ecological crossroads could be a tremendous opportunity to create jobs and change work. Most of the research we have shows that the ecological conversion could create a lot of jobs, because the sectors to be closed down or reduced are less labor-intensive than those to be developed (transportation infrastructure, building insulation, organic farming, renewable energy, etc.). In addition, we will need more human labor because we will have to rely less on CO2-generating, energy-consuming machines. But this conversion is complicated.

Why?

The industrial restructuring of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s was a failure in Europe. The workers in industries undergoing conversion were laid off or forced into early retirement. If we aren’t able to anticipate, organize and support future restructuring, there will be strong resistance to change. But if we can organize these changes together with the social partners and workers – democratizing the governance of business and the economy – then, in addition to creating jobs, we will be able to change work by making it less labor intensive and restoring meaning to it.

You advocate a “post-growth model.” What does that mean?

I started working on this issue in the late 1990s and published Qu’est-ce que la richesse?, a critique of the equation between a society’s wealth and progress and GDP growth. The GDP does not take into account activities that are essential for the reproduction and smooth functioning of society; it is not affected by inequalities in production, consumption or income; it fails to take into account in any way the degradation of our natural heritage or social cohesion. We must adopt other goals: meeting the essential needs of all while respecting the planet’s limits, and thus use other indicators.

Which ones?

I’ll use the following image, if I may: this would mean enclosing GDP – production – within two other indicators: the carbon footprint, in order to stay within the physical limits of the planet, and the social health index, developed by my colleague Florence Jany-Catrice. This index takes into account social welfare, which is not always linked to an increase in GDP.

Many people are talking about “green growth.” Don’t you get the impression that this concept prevents us from understanding that it is capitalism that impedes taking a different path?

I absolutely agree with that. It is just a trick that makes us think that dirty, bad growth can be turned into clean growth with a wave of a magic wand. Certainly, some progress has been made in terms of decoupling: we now produce GDP points with less CO2, but to do it properly we would need radical decoupling, which, for the moment, seems possible only with the help of disruptive technologies that are either not available or whose effects could be even worse. The only available path is through reduced material consumption and sobriety.

Your feminist approach highlights the often overlooked but essential role of women’s work. What role can they play in the transformation you envision?

One of the first researchers to highlight the causes of the radical change in representations and values that occurred in the 17th and 18th centuries was a woman: Carolyn Merchant. In an extraordinarily important book, The Death of Nature, published in 1980, the author showed the extent to which the scientific revolution that accompanied modernity determined the trajectory of the Anthropocene. In particular, she highlighted the way Francis Bacon promoted the exploitation of nature and the forcible extraction of its secrets, including through violence. That’s also what I was saying to my students before having read Merchant.

Perhaps it is because women are more sensitive to this form of domination?

They are, but not because they are inherently different, but because they have been and continue to be dominated and negatively valued. Women are in a better position to call for the implementation of a paradigm shift: from the current one of exploitation, conquest and forcible extraction to one of care. This allows us to rethink work, no longer as an activity aimed at development and exploitation, but as an activity that allows subsistence while respecting the land that allows us to obtain it. This is a very interesting line of thinking that several researchers are exploring. And that is a good thing.

Il manifesto global


ICYMI

Climate change funding talks stuck ahead of COP29

By Reuters
June 14, 2024
A representational image showing the emission of gases by burning fossil fuels in an oil exploration facility. — AFP/File

BONN: With just five months to go before this year’s UN climate summit, countries cannot agree on the size of a global funding bill to help the developing world fight climate change -- let alone how to split it.

The decision is set to dominate the COP29 climate talks in Azerbaijan in November, where nearly 200 countries need to agree on a new annual financing target for helping poorer countries cut their emissions and protect their societies in a harsher, hotter world.

The new target will replace the yearly $100 billion that rich countries had pledged in climate finance from 2020. That goal was met two years late.But preliminary talks this week in Bonn, Germany, have yielded no major breakthroughs. Instead, the talks ending on Thursday have again exposed the unyielding rifts among the world’s biggest economies over who should be paying most to fight climate change -- and how much.

Representatives from climate-vulnerable nations said it was hard watching wealthy nations fall late with past payments of climate finance while quickly approving new funds for military responses to war or spending billions subsidising CO2-emitting energy sources.

“It seems like money is always there when it’s a more ‘real’ national priority for the country,” Michai Robertson, negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, told Reuters.“It’s really tough to see that,” he said.

GETTING THE NUMBER RIGHT

The new financing target is the core tool that global climate talks can deliver to fund projects that reduce planet-warming emissions -- such as renewable energy or low-carbon transport.With all countries due to update their national climate targets next year, negotiators fear failure could lead to weaker efforts.

“How are you going to move forward if there’s no financing?” said South African climate negotiator Pemy Gasela. Her country is among many developing nations warning they cannot afford to cut emissions faster without more financial support -- in South Africa’s case, to swap a heavy reliance on CO2-emitting coal for clean energy.

Yet wealthy countries are wary of setting a target too high and risking it going unmet. The missed $100 billion target became politically symbolic in recent UN climate talks, stoking mistrust between nations as developing countries argued the world's economic powers were abandoning them.

Diplomats in Bonn have circled the issue of how much money to put on the table.While countries agree $100 billion is too low, there is little chance they would agree to summon the $2.4 trillion per year that the UN climate chief in February said was needed to keep the world’s climate goals within reach.

Neither the European Union or the US have suggested a number for the goal, although both acknowledged this week that it must exceed $100 billion. The 27-country EU is currently the biggest provider of climate finance.The elephant in the negotiation rooms, some diplomats told Reuters, was the upcoming US presidential election, in which Donald Trump is seeking to return to office.

The previous Trump administration pulled the world’s biggest economy out of the Paris climate agreement. Negotiators said they worry a future Trump administration could halt US climate finance payments, leaving it to other wealthy nations to meet the annual pledge.

But some countries in Bonn have made suggestions.India, and a group of Arab countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, have said the overall financing target should exceed $1 trillion per year, to reflect the spiralling needs of poorer countries as climate change worsens.

The Arab countries propose that rich nations provide $441 billion in public funding per year in grants, to leverage a total $1.1 trillion per year from broader sources.

Small island countries vulnerable to climate change have also pushed for stricter rules on what counts toward the target, suggesting preventing loans with interest rates above 1.0 per cent, to avoid adding to poor nations' already-high debts.Most public climate funds provided by developed nations are loans, according to the OECD.

DECIDING WHO SHOULD PAY

Countries are also at odds over who should contribute.There are about two dozen, long-industrialized countries currently obliged to contribute to UN climate finance. That list was decided during UN climate talks in 1992, when China’s economy was still smaller than Italy’s.

The EU wants China -- now the world’s biggest CO2 emitter and second biggest economy -- and high wealth-per-capita Middle Eastern countries to contribute for the new goal. The US has also argued for adding more countries in the donor base.

However, the Arab countries and China firmly opposed this idea, with Beijing reiterating China’s status as a ‘developing country’ under the UN climate convention.

“We, the developing countries, have no intention to make your number look good or be part of your responsibility, as we are doing all we can do to save the world,” China’s negotiator told other diplomats during negotiations on the finance target in Bonn on Tuesday.

Neither camp of countries has compromised on who should pay, said Joe Thwaites, who tracks climate finance negotiations for the non-profit Natural Resources Defense Council.“Negotiations were difficult and things are moving slowly,” he said.

As talks continue beyond Bonn, some negotiators said government ministers could raise the issue at higher level meetings such as G20 ministers’ gatherings in Brazil ahead of COP29.
Same-sex marriage rights around the world


While the right to marry has already been legalised in 35 other countries, homosexuality remains banned in many parts of the world. — AFP pic

Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 

PARIS, June 18, —With Thai lawmakers voting to legalise same-sex marriage Tuesday, we look at the situation across the globe.

While the right to marry has already been legalised in 35 other countries, homosexuality remains banned in many parts of the world.

Europe, gay marriage pioneers

On October 1, 1989, for the first time in the world, several gay couples in Denmark tied the knot in civil unions, giving their relationships a legal standing but falling short of full marriage.

It was the Netherlands that first allowed same-sex marriages in April 2001.

Since then another 20 European countries have followed suit: Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Britain, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.

Some European states have authorised same-sex civil union but without having legalised gay marriage, including Italy, Hungary, Croatia, Cyprus, Latvia, Czech Republic and the principalities of Liechtenstein and Monaco.

The European Court of Human Rights in 2023 found Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Russia and Ukraine guilty of failing to recognise same-sex couples.

Progress in the Americas

Canada was the first American country to authorise same-sex marriage in 2005.


In 2015 the US Supreme Court legalised gay marriage nationwide at a time when it was banned in 14 out of 50 states.

However the United States’ first gay marriage actually took place in 1971, when a Minnesota couple obtained a marriage licence thanks to a legal loophole.

The marriage was eventually recognised in March 2019, after a five-decade legal battle.

In Latin America nine countries allow same-sex marriages: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico and Uruguay.

Bolivia recognises civil unions between people of the same sex but not marriage.

Taiwan, first in Asia

In May 2019 Taiwan became the first territory in Asia to allow gay marriage.

Nepal’s Supreme Court last year issued an interim order allowing all same-sex and trans couples to register their marriages, and in November, an LGBTQ couple acquired a marriage certificate.

Other couples have followed in their footsteps.

Challenges remain, however. The court order directed the government to establish a separate temporary register until laws are formulated.

Japan is the only G7 member not to authorise marriages or civil unions for all. But several local administrations have begun to officially recognise people of the same sex living together as couples.

Australia (2017) and New Zealand (2013) are the only places in the wider Asia-Pacific region to have passed gay marriage laws.

Vietnam decriminalised gay marriage celebrations in 2015 but stopped short of full legal recognition for same-sex unions.

In the Middle East, where LGBTQ people face grave rights abuses, Israel leads the way, recognising same-sex marriages that are sealed elsewhere although not allowing such unions in the country itself.

Several countries in the conservative region still have the death penalty for homosexuality, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Africa: marriage in one country

South Africa is the sole nation on the African continent to allow gay marriage, which it legalised in 2006.

Around 30 African countries ban homosexuality, with Mauritania, Somalia and Sudan having the death penalty for same-sex relations.

 — AFP



Finland must reject deportation bill aimed at stopping migration: Human rights chief

Draft law raises ‘significant human rights concerns,’ says Council of Europe's commissioner for human rights

Leila Nezirevic |18.06.2024 - 


LONDON

The Council of Europe's Commissioner for Human Rights, Michael O'Flaherty, has urged the Finnish government to reject a bill aimed at stopping “instrumentalized” migration, saying the draft legislation raises several significant “human rights concerns," local media reported Monday.

Helsinki introduced a draft law that would enable it to stop migrants coming from Russia to its eastern border and from seeking asylum in what it says could be a basis for a European-level solution.

If the bill passes, the government could decide to block the entry of asylum seekers on its border and deport them to a place where “applications for international protection are accepted,” Prime Minister Petteri Orpo recently told reporters.

Last Tuesday, the government announced that the bill has been given to parliament for consideration.

The law proposal would need the support of five-sixths of MPs and would be in force for a one-year period and once backed by lawmakers, would enable Finland to open border checkpoints on the European Union’s and NATO’s longest frontier with Russia, according to national broadcaster YLE.

Since last November, Finnish authorities have reputedly accused Moscow of carrying out a suspected "hybrid attack" and purposefully assisting undocumented migrants in crossing into the Nordic country, which Russia denied.

Following the accusations, the border crossing points on the land between Finland and Russia remain closed until further notice.

O'Flaherty said the proposed legislation "raises a number of significant human rights concerns, including with regard to the principle of non-refoulment, collective expulsion and effective remedies, among others," YLE reported.

The commissioner emphasized that the bill relies on national security grounds, but he also pointed out that "such grounds can never be invoked to justify refoulment."

"While member states are given a certain margin of appreciation with regard to the restriction of certain rights on grounds of national security, invocation of national security cannot be used as a carte blanche," O'Flaherty was quoted as saying by the broadcaster.

The human rights chief also warned that if Helsinki was to adopt the draft law, it would set a precedent for other countries, "including those with a less developed practice of upholding human rights."

In a letter sent to the government, he asked Finnish MPs not to adopt the bill and to instead deal with the issue of instrumentalized migration by engaging with domestic and international partners, according to YLE.

Last month, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) criticized Helsinki’s deportation law, which it said would set a dangerous precedent.

The UNHCR warned that preventing people seeking international protection from entering the country violates refugee and human rights rules.

"As we have witnessed at several European borders, pushback procedures put people at risk, too often leading to serious injuries or even death," Philippe Leclerc, the UNHCR's Regional Director for Europe, said in a press release.

Finland, which shares a 1,340-kilometer (832-mile) border with Russia and has eight official border crossings, became the 31st member of NATO in April last year, ending decades of military non-alignment as a result of Russia's war in Ukraine, which began on Feb. 24, 2022.

Orban regime interfered in high-profile tax fraud case, claims former tax investigator

Orban regime interfered in in high-profile tax fraud case, claims former tax investigator
Lajos Tiszolczi says he was told informally that he posed a risk to national security. / bne IntelliNewsFacebook
By Tamas Csonka in Budapest June 18, 2024

A former tax investigator of the Hungarian Tax Office (NAV) says that high-level political orders led to the halt of an investigation against a prominent businessman, who months later established an alleged spoiler political party to further divide the opposition in the 2022 general elections.

Opposition parties say the case exposes the inner workings of the Orban regime and how the government intervenes directly in the work of investigative bodies to undermine the rule of law.

The investigation against Gyorgy Gattyan was unexpectedly terminated in the autumn of 2021 despite being close to prosecution, Lajos Tiszolczi told Hungary’s leading online political news channel Partizan on June 17.

Gattyan, who was recently ranked as Hungary’s fifth-wealthiest person with a net worth of €1bn, had a tax debt of HUF20bn (€50mn).

In the interview, the former tax official said that he learned from at least two separate sources that three people with very close government connections intervened in favour of Gattyan, who had for years fought the tax office in court after his assets were frozen in Hungary when he was ordered to pay tens of billions of tax debts. The businessman relocated much of his businesses to Luxembourg in the mid-2010s, but he continued to challenge the tax office in court. 

Tiszolczi and others working on the case were sidelined before the case was finally closed.

A few months later, Gattyan announced the launch of a new political movement, Megoldas Mozgalom (Solution Movement) running on a quasi-centrist platform with a focus on boosting digitalisation in Hungary, allegedly to lure undecided voters away from opposition parties.

Polls at the end of 2021 suggested a tight race ahead of the 2022 general elections, as the opposition ran on a joint ticket against the incumbent conservative nationalists for the first time. A number of bogus parties popped up before the election to distract voters, but unlike small, fringe parties, Megoldas Mozgalom put significant amounts of funding into its campaign.

The ruling party also unleashed an unprecedented pre-election spending splurge, including the refund of personal income tax to families and the payment of the 13-month payments to secure its victory.

Fidesz seemed to have overestimated the threat posed by the joint opposition, as it won by the biggest margin since first sweeping to power with a two-third majority in 2010. Gatttyan's fringe party barely passed the 1% threshold, which meant it did not have to reimburse hundreds of millions of campaign money.

The former NAV official also recalled that Finance Minister Mihaly Varga dismissed high-ranking NAV officials in the summer of 2021, including the head of the tax authority.

After leaving NAV, Tiszolczi applied for a job at the Integrity Authority, the anti-fraud body tasked with overseeing EU funds set up by the government in late 2022 to meet demands set by Brussels to access locked development funds. The job post was withdrawn and he was told informally that he posed a risk to national security.

After the publication of the interview, the party chairman of Megoldas Mozgalom tendered his resignation and journalists working at a small online news site, financed by Gattyan, were dismissed.

The businessman is also involved as a financier of Teqball, invented by members of Gattyan's party. It combines the elements of football and table tennis, played on a special curved table. Teqball is gaining popularity worldwide and is even aiming for inclusion in the Olympics. Gattyan had secured state grants to help the expansion of the innovation abroad.

A Political Landslide in Hungary Challenges Orbán’s Regime and the EU


Dr. András Rácz
Jun 18, 2024

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Viktor Orbán, expecting a far-right surge, previously framed the recent European Parliament election as a “revolutionary moment for Brussels.” Instead, it turned out to be a revolutionary moment against him at home. The new Tisza party of Péter Magyar, a former ruling party appointee, practically eradicated the traditional opposition forces in Hungary and weakened Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz. This has consequences not only for the country’s domestic politics but also its role in the EU.
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DGAP Memo No. 13, June 18, 2024, 3 pp.
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On June 9, European Parliament (EP) elections were held in Hungary together with municipal ones. According to the results, Péter Magyar’s Tisza party fundamentally reshaped the political landscape and swept away most of the traditional opposition parties. Tisza gained 29.69 percent of all votes cast in the EP elections, ranking second behind the 44.62 percent of Fidesz, the worst result of Fidesz in any EP elections. Meanwhile, other opposition parties got a lot weaker. Some – like the Socialists; the liberal Momentum; the right-centrist, formerly radical Jobbik; and several smaller formations – lost practically all their EP voters. This forecasts that these parties will hardly survive the upcoming 2026 national elections, which may well be a bipolar struggle between Orbán’s Fidesz and its main challenger, Péter Magyar’s Tisza.

On the municipal and local level, Tisza participated only to a very limited extent because the short time of its existence did not permit it to have enough candidates. Yet the general trend there was the same: significant parts of the population turned away from both Viktor Orbán and traditional opposition parties and instead favored non-systemic forces. In Budapest, the incumbent opposition mayor, Gergely Karácsony, preserved his position. It should be noted, however, that he only won very narrowly over Dávid Vitézy, a candidate who ran as an independent although he was supported by Fidesz. In the Budapest assembly, the Tisza party gained ten seats, equal to Orbán's Fidesz.

These were the first elections in which Péter Magyar’s newly institutionalized political force, the Tisza party, participated. Tisza is an acronym, composed of parts of the Hungarian words “respect” (tisztelet) and “freedom” (szabadság), as well as the name of the country’s second-largest river. The party has a right-centrist political agenda with a strong focus on anti-corruption. It employs an often-populist rhetoric about the need to replace the old political elites of both the government and the opposition. This agenda resonates extremely well among large segments of the Hungarian population and managed to activate at least half a million voters who had previously been politically passive and disillusioned. The formerly dormant party, taken over by Péter Magyar in April 2024, is on the rise throughout the entire country with a rapidly growing number of activists.

Hungary Shifting to the Right in the European Parliament

The most important change after the June election is that the entire Hungarian representation in the European Parliament shifted toward the Right. Hungary holds 21 seats there. According to the final results, Viktor Orbán’s coalition, the Fidesz-Christian Democrats, will have 11 of them in the new EP. Although this is two mandates fewer than the 13 they gained in 2019, Fidesz is still the absolute winner among Hungary’s political parties.

The Tisza party received seven mandates, which is an unprecedentedly strong result from a newly established party. The leftist-populist Democratic Coalition party of former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány lost half of its previous four seats. Neither the Socialist party nor the Jobbik passed the five percent threshold. This was also true for the liberal Momentum, which had two seats between 2019 and 2024. Instead, the far-right, anti-Western, and pro-Russian Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) party made it into the EP by gaining one seat.

Regarding their membership in the political groups of the new European Parliament, the European People’s Party (EPP) is already negotiating with Péter Magyar about the Tisza party joining its ranks. Manfred Weber, its president, openly invited Magyar into the EPP.

The loss of the seats of the two members of European Parliament (MEPs) from Momentum fits into the trend of liberal political parties getting weaker in this election. The fallout also extends to Renew Europe, the parliamentary group to which Momentum belongs. Meanwhile, the MEP from the far-right Our Homeland party will most probably join the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, thus contributing to the strengthening of forces hostile to the EU and NATO. Still, the rightist-conservative “revolution” in the EP that Orbán expected did not materialize. This election only made his own Fidesz party weaker.

It is not yet clear which political group Orbán’s party will join. Now having 11 MEPs, Orbán is a comparatively less valuable partner to any political group than he was in 2019 when he had two mandates more. Hence, his ambitions about forging a united Euroskeptic political group in the EP under his leadership were made even more unrealistic than they already had been. This is particularly true because Orbán has not become any less toxic as a coalition partner. Not only does Hungary have prevailing rule of law problems, but it also maintains close ties to Russia and China, the latter illustrated by the 3-day visit of China’s President Xi Jinping to Budapest in mid-May. Hence, it is far from evident that the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), dominated by Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, would risk losing other members for the sake of Orbán’s 11 seats. Meanwhile, if Orbán joined the ID, where the extreme-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) sat until May 2024 and intends to return, he would risk further damaging Hungary’s already strained ties with Berlin. If not invited by the ECR, it may well happen that Orbán waits out the end of the Hungarian Presidency of the Council of the European Union in December 2024 before starting to push for joining any other political groups to avoid any unnecessary tensions.
 
Hungary Is Preparing for a Low-Profile, Constructive EU Presidency

The reshuffling of the Hungarian political landscape does not affect the plans of the upcoming Hungarian EU Presidency. Unlike in France or Belgium, the relative weakening of the government did not result in early elections. Hence, the Hungarian government will continue to prepare for taking over the EU presidency in July 2024 and conducting it in an orderly manner.

In Hungary’s political system, EU affairs are run by a separate ministry that is led by János Bóka, an experienced, constructive technocrat. Bóka has served as Viktor Orbán’s “EU sherpa” for years and enjoys the prime minister’s trust. The fact that EU affairs belong to a dedicated ministry may well help mitigate the problems originating from the unusually close ties of Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Péter Szijjártó, with Russia.
 
Rule of Law Procedure Will Become More Complicated


In the longer run, the restructuring of Hungary’s political representation in the European Parliament may still complicate the EP’s work related to Budapest. The reason is that the incoming MEPs from Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, unlike the previous MEPs from the Socialists and Momentum whom they are replacing, are fairly critical of the rule of law procedure. One of their core objectives is to restart the flow of EU funds to Hungary – a goal that they share with the agenda of Orbán.

Therefore, it will become more complicated for the EP to rely on the work of Hungarian MEPs in maintaining and supporting the rule of law procedure with continuous updates and assessments. In the previous EP, the two Momentum MEPs, Anna Donáth and Katalin Cseh, played a pioneering rule in doing so. In the new setup, however, there will be no Hungarian MEP able or willing to continue this work.

Germany Needs to Prepare for the Erosion of the Orbán System

The sudden rise of the Tisza party is another indicator of the gradual weakening of Viktor Orbán’s regime. Hungary’s low economic growth paired with its still high inflation, high budget deficit, and low wages stands in sharp contrast with how the elites close to Orbán keep accumulating wealth by misusing state funds. In addition to being challenged by the country’s economic troubles, the regime lost two prominent politicians this spring in an unprecedentedly serious scandal related to pedophilia. Consequently, both President Katalin Novák and Minister of Justice Judit Varga had to resign – the latter had been tapped to lead the EP list of Fidesz. These EP elections again demonstrated that resistance is growing against Orbán and his party within Hungarian society and that, despite the regime’s overwhelming domestic propaganda apparatus, it is less and less able to defuse these tensions.

Still, the Hungarian political system has been designed for prioritizing stability. The next parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in spring 2026. Hence, unless Orbán decides to go for early elections – which he is unlikely to do, as he would most probably lose his current constitutional supermajority – Hungary will still be run by the Fidesz government for at least two more years. Growing domestic, economic, and foreign policy tensions are unlikely to reach any explicit breaking point; instead, a continued, gradual degradation is likely in the overall efficiency of governance in Hungary. The weakening Orbán system is highly likely to keep leveraging on its remaining veto positions in the European Union to demonstrate power at home and possibly get much-needed financial concessions from the EU. This will make Budapest an increasingly complicated partner in matters of common EU foreign policy.


BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA

Rácz, András. “A Political Landslide in Hungary Challenges Orbán’s Regime and the EU.” DGAP Memo 13 (2024). German Council on Foreign Relations. June 2024. https://doi.org/10.60823/DGAP-24-40836-en.
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Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia


Dr. András Rácz
Senior Research Fellow, Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russ…

Meloni has not-so-quietly continued her crusade against women’s and LGBT rights

The guests got the royal treatment: breathtaking locations, renowned chefs, all Italian style. And so did the hostess: it seems we are willing to turn a blind eye (or both) when it comes to the finer details of Giorgia’s (mother and Christian) version of “Italian style.”

The text backtracking on abortion and LGBTQ+ rights was eventually signed by the G7 gathered in Puglia with hardly a care, despite initial resistance from the U.S. and Macron’s “regret.” So we should simply pretend that nothing has changed from the text signed in Hiroshima last year: this suits everyone, each with their own domestic troubles. It especially suits the Italian premier, who gets a win by not having to back down. It’s an old story, one that keeps repeating.

One might recall that on September 11, 2023, the website of the Prime Minister’s office announced that “on the occasion of her visit to the State of Qatar,” Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with Emir Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani to “strengthen the excellent bilateral and personal relations” between them. During their talk, they spoke about “the major opportunities for collaboration for our businesses.”

And yet, just two years before, in July 2021, the same Giorgia Meloni – of course, before she was triumphantly installed as Prime Minister – had some accusatory words: “In the Draghi government, there is great inconsistency and hypocrisy on the issue of the fight against homophobia. I will present a bill in Parliament in which I will ask the government to stop any form of trade agreement with countries where homosexuality is a crime, such as Qatar. Hypocrisy bothers me a lot.”

The contradictions that political leaders fall into when they move from opposition to government are a well that never runs dry. However, the current Prime Minister must hold the record on hypocrisy. Hiding behind whataboutism is a specialty for her and her ministers (“But what about the Khmer Rouge?”).

The truth is that in June 2021, the Draghi government had added its signature to a declaration by 13 European countries against the Hungarian anti-LGBTQ+ law, which banned so-called “homosexual propaganda” in schools, advertising and TV programs aimed at minors. This was the actual impulse behind Meloni’s reaction, which amounted to “What about Qatar?” Then, during the electoral campaign, the FdI’s Federico Mollicone readily embraced the Orbán doctrine with his own “What about Peppa Pig?” (a polar bear with two mothers appeared in one episode of the very popular cartoon).

It’s hardly worth mentioning that the Meloni government (together with Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic and Slovakia) did not support the EU Commission’s subsequent appeal against the Hungarian law. Ursula von der Leyen had called the law “disgraceful” because it “puts homosexuality and gender reassignment on a par with pornography” and “uses the protection of children … as an excuse to severely discriminate against people because of their sexual orientation.”

On LGBTQ+ issues, the Meloni government has cut an unmistakable figure on several occasions, in Italy and across Europe: the crusade against the two mothers in the Peppa Pig cartoon during the electoral campaign was matched by the war against the real-life children of same-sex couples, against social transition in schools and against drugs for transgender teenagers. Sexual and emotional education remain taboo.

In May, Italy was among the several European countries (not quite the most enlightened bunch on the issue) that refused to approve the declaration on the advancement of human rights for LGBT+ people prepared by the Belgian rotating presidency of the EU Council, presented on the occasion of the International Day against Homophobia, Transphobia and Biphobia. It’s certainly a way to stand out.

And now, Italy offered its guests at Borgo Egnazia yet more revealing images, right on the eve of the Pride march in Rome. Giorgia’s FdI have been very worried these days because the fisticuffs in Parliament risked damaging the country’s pristine image in front of the world’s bigwigs. It’s a shame that the right-wing physical violence in Parliament simply reflects the cultural, social and political backwardness of the party led by the country’s first woman premier.

Italy refused to sign the European declaration on LGBT+ rights for the same reason it decided to water down the final document of the G7 in Puglia compared to the one in Hiroshima. It’s because the previous year’s text contained (same as the failed Zan decree) something Meloni & co. cast as their greatest enemy, “gender identity,” at the basis of the fictitious “gender ideology” invented by reactionary right-wingers across the world to justify homophobic and transphobic impulses and reassure the most backward and nostalgic part of their base and electorate (and it’s not just old timers, as the Fanpage investigation shows). Similarly, the word “abortion” and the reference to the role of education also disappeared from the final document of the Puglia G7.

Of course, the premier is claiming this is all fake news: no backtracking on abortion (even though pro-life groups are now being allowed into clinics), no wavering on LGBT rights. This is Giorgia Meloni, not some Vannacci, after all. And that’s clearly good enough for the outgoing president of the EU Commission, who, with her goal of a second mandate at the helm of the Union in sight, doesn’t seem worried about the Orban-like tendencies of one of her major partners in dialogue.

Is that self-contradiction? Hypocrisy? Sudden alarm at the supposed encroachment of “gender theory”? Or fear of the return of Peppa Pig causing her to miss out on a second term?

Il manifesto global


G7 Summit 2024: A Critical Analysis

The recent G7 summit in Italy concluded with an official statement that underscored
key takeaways and ongoing challenges.
Image source: X @GiorgiaMeloni


The recent G7 summit in Italy concluded with an official statement that underscored key takeaways and ongoing challenges. While the summit aimed to address pressing global issues, it was evident that underlying political dynamics and strategic objectives, particularly regarding China and Russia, played a significant role. This analysis highlights the successes and shortcomings of the summit, as well as the broader geopolitical implications.

Key Takeaways from the G7 Summit

Focus on AI and Technology Regulation:

Italy, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, prioritized the regulation of artificial intelligence (AI). Pope Francis, a former chemist, made an unprecedented appearance to advocate for AI regulation, emphasizing its potential harms.

Italy’s temporary ban on ChatGPT in March 2024 showcased its proactive stance on AI scrutiny.

Outreach to Non-Western Nations:

The G7 attempted to broaden its engagement beyond Western democracies by inviting leaders from India, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Algeria, Kenya, and Mauritania. This move aimed to bridge the “West vs. the Rest” gap, especially concerning the Ukraine crisis. It was an attempt to expand blocks beyond West and take some other emerging powers on board.

Financial Sanctions on Russia:

A core issue was the proposal to use dividends from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. This proposal, initiated by Washington, faced opposition from European members and Japan. The debate highlighted the complexities of international financial sanctions and the geopolitical tug-of-war over their implementation. Some of the US allies were of opposite views and President Joe Biden failed to convince them.

Failures and Criticisms

Geopolitical Motives and US Hegemony:

The summit’s agenda appeared heavily influenced by the US’s strategic objectives to counter China and Russia, raising concerns about the G7 being used as a tool for US geopolitical dominance.

The exclusion of Russia since the 2014 G8 shrinkage to G7 and the recent focus on isolating China reflect a shift from economic cooperation to big-power rivalry.

Out of 7, six leaders were having domestic issue at home and were not strong enough to make a solid contribution at the Summit. President Biden, who is going to have a tough election by the end of this year, was losing his popularity within American voters. He might face very tough competition from former President Trump. He is equally unpopular globally for his irrational support to Israel and genocide in Gaza. Furthermore, during his tenure, Afghan debacle, Ukraine War, Gaza Genocide, and de-dollarization happened, making his presidency a weak and failure. French President is also going for election soon. Canadian Prime Minister, who is very much popular globally, but, may face very tough completion at home from opposition. Japanese Prime Minister is one of the weakest prime Minister in the history of Japan. German Chancellor is also facing domestic issues. I think only Italian Prime Minister was strong and enjoying full support of his people. Under this scenario, the six leaders were not in a strong position to contribute something solid at the G-7 summit.

Divisions Among G7 Members:

The inability to reach a consensus on using Russian assets for Ukraine highlighted fractures within the G7. European and Japanese resistance to US pressure revealed underlying tensions and differing priorities among member states.

The lack of agreement on this financial issue demonstrated the limits of G7’s cohesion and effectiveness in addressing complex global challenges. Some of the US allies were of opposite views and President Joe Biden failed to convince them.

Perception of Selective Human Rights Advocacy:

The summit’s approach to Russia’s financial assets raised questions about the selective application of human rights and international law. Critics argue that such actions undermine the credibility of Western institutions and set a dangerous precedent for future geopolitical conflicts.

The G7’s stance risks alienating non-Western countries, especially those involved in BRICS, by demonstrating a willingness to violate international norms for strategic gains.

Emerging Counterbalance: The Rise of BRICS

Expansion and Single Currency:

The BRICS bloc is gaining momentum as a counterbalance to the G7. The upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan, chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin, aims to expand membership and create a single currency to facilitate economic relations amidst Western sanctions.

The development of an independent payment system for BRICS countries reflects a strategic move to reduce reliance on Western financial systems and mitigate the impact of sanctions.

Diverse and Open Partnership:

BRICS emphasizes an inclusive and non-bloc partnership, contrasting with the G7’s perceived elitism. This approach is attracting numerous countries, with around 30 seeking BRICS membership, indicating a shift towards a more multipolar global order.

Challenge to Western Hegemony:

The BRICS initiative to create a viable structure for economic cooperation and resilience against Western pressure signifies a growing challenge to US and Western hegemony. The group’s focus on mutual interests and equal dialogue contrasts sharply with the G7’s current trajectory.

Navigating Uncharted Waters

The G7 summit in Italy highlighted the group’s attempts to address global issues while navigating complex geopolitical landscapes. However, the summit also exposed the inherent contradictions and challenges within the G7, particularly its alignment with US strategic interests and the resulting divisions among members. The movement for European Sovereignty is gaining momentum too. As BRICS continues to emerge as a formidable counterbalance, the international community faces a shifting dynamic where traditional Western-led institutions must adapt to a more multipolar world order. There are almost 100 countries interested to join BRICS in the near future. The future of global cooperation will depend on the ability of these blocs to reconcile their differences and work towards inclusive, sustainable solutions.


Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan
Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.


Meloni gets her way at the G7: war, Mattei Plan and ‘sovereign rights’

 Analysis. While the situation on the ground in Ukraine is more and more difficult, the document put together by the seven used the same watchwords we have often found in their speeches.

At the G7 meeting, Ukraine was the number one issue, as shown by the special role given to President Zelensky, the bilateral meeting between him and Joe Biden, and the summit’s focus on Russian aggression.

It was the same with the seven leaders’ final statement: “We reaffirm our unwavering support for Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

Then again, Ukraine is the only point of the document on which the seven – and especially the host, Giorgia Meloni – have any concrete achievements to show: the €50 billion loan covered by the interest on frozen Russian sovereign wealth funds – dubbed “Era: Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine” – and the 10-year bilateral agreement with the United States. Complementing all this was the condemnation of Russia’s “brutal and unjustifiable war of aggression,” and its “irresponsible” appeal to nuclear rhetoric.

While the situation on the ground in Ukraine is more and more difficult, the document put together by the seven used the same watchwords we have often found in their speeches in recent days, which seem to highlight rather than dispel a serious underlying concern about the future course of the conflict. Thus, we read insistent assurances that it’s not true that “time is on Russia’s side,” that “destroying infrastructure and livelihoods has no consequences for Russia,” or that “Russia can prevail by causing Ukraine to fail economically.”

The not-so-subtle threats against China, which is supplying technology to Moscow that is being used to build weapons, were a recurring theme, both in the long chapter on Kyiv as well as in the entire chapter on the Indo-Pacific, which, in the diplomatic language used on these occasions, Beijing is framed as the source of instability throughout the region, from Taiwan to the Philippines and North Korea – with the exception of Myanmar’s military junta, which was deemed to deserve blame all on its own.

Of course, there was no chance that the persecution of Muslims by the newly re-elected Indian government led by Narendra Modi would make it into the document, on the day the Indian prime minister came to Borgo Egnazia (and held a bilateral meeting with Meloni in the evening) along with the other leaders invited as part of the so-called “outreach” – trumpeted for days as proof that the G7 is not a private club intended only for the rich and predominantly white – including Turkey’s Erdogan, Argentina’s Javier Milei and Brazil’s Lula.

The second-most-prominent theme in the final document was Gaza. However, after the dutiful condemnation of the Hamas massacre, the words used in defense of the rights of civilians in the Strip, as well as in the Occupied Territories, were more milquetoast than those already uttered on several occasions by the president of the United States in an attempt to stem Benyamin Netanyahu’s murderous and unscrupulous advance into the Gaza Strip, where almost nothing remains standing.

“We fully endorse and will stand behind the comprehensive deal outlined by President Biden,” the document reads, “that would lead to an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all hostages, a significant and sustained increase in the flow of humanitarian assistance throughout Gaza, and an enduring end to the crisis, with Israel’s security interests and safety for Palestinian civilians in Gaza assured.”

That, of course, would be the panacea for all ills. “We are deeply concerned by the consequences on the civilian population of the ongoing ground operations in Rafah,” the seven lamented as the offensive has already been underway for weeks, “and the possibility of a full-scale military offensive that would have further dire consequences for civilians.” They also tut-tutted at settler violence and paid the usual fealty to a two-state solution. There are also a few sentences on the fears of the conflict widening, from the Houthi-patrolled Gulf of Aden to Lebanon and Iran: Tehran “must cease its destabilizing actions.”

In third place, Meloni managed to put her own pet project, the Mattei Plan for Africa, under the heading “Fostering Partnerships with African Countries”: “We will reinforce mutually beneficial and equitable cooperation with African countries and regional organizations.” Accordingly, the G7 “welcome the Mattei Plan for Africa launched by Italy.” The counterpart, and counterpoint, could be found several pages further, in the “Migration” section.

The G7 leaders reiterated the same vague three-point recipe as always: “focus on the root causes of irregular migration” (sounding as ambitious as ever), “efforts to enhance border management,” and “safe and regular pathways for migration.”

However, the real core of the policy shines through further down: “we will step up our efforts to prevent and address irregular migration, counter the illegal activities that facilitate it, and tackle the challenges it poses to individuals and societies. We affirm the sovereign right of states to control their borders, as well as their prerogative to govern migration within their jurisdiction.”

The stress on the “sovereign right” is another achievement by Meloni, while Biden is reeling from the consequences of his disgraceful executive order shutting down the southern border of the United States, abandoning countless promises in the process. All in all, the Italian prime minister had her way on all fronts.

Il manifesto global