Thursday, May 02, 2024

Misinformation rampant on social media as India goes to the polls

"I don't think I can trust in the people that are governing my country."



- An Indian laborer at a building construction site watches election trends on a mobile phone in Gauhati, India, Misinformation about India’s election is surging online as the world’s most populous country votes. The country has a huge online ecosystem, with the largest number of WhatsApp and YouTube users in the world. 
(AP Photo/Anupam Nath, File)

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
PUBLISHED: May 2, 2024 at 4:54 p.m. | UPDATED: May 2, 2024 at 4:54 p.m.


By David Klepper and Krutika Pathi | Associated Press

NEW DELHI — Bollywood stars seldom weigh in on politics, so videos showing two celebrities criticizing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — and endorsing his main opposition, the Congress party — were bound to go viral.

But the clips of A-list actors Aamir Khan and Ranveer Singh were fake, AI-generated videos that were yet another example of the false or misleading claims swirling online with the goal of influencing India’s election. Both actors filed complaints with police but such actions do little to stanch the flow of such misinformation.

Claims circulating online in India recently have misstated details about casting a ballot, claimed without evidence that the election will be rigged, and called for violence against India’s Muslims.

Researchers who track misinformation and hate speech in India say tech companies’ poor enforcement of their own policies has created perfect conditions for harmful content that could distort public opinion, spur violence and leave millions of voters wondering what to believe.

“A non-discerning user or regular user has no idea whether it’s someone, an individual sharing his or her thoughts on the other end, or is it a bot?” Rekha Singh, a 49-year-old voter, told The Associated Press. Singh said she worries that social media algorithms distort voters’ view of reality. “So you are biased without even realizing it,” she said.

In a year crowded with big elections, the sprawling vote in India stands out. The world’s most populous country boasts dozens of languages, the greatest number of WhatsApp users as well as the largest number of YouTube subscribers. Nearly 1 billion voters are eligible to cast a ballot in the election, which runs into June.

Tech companies like Google and Meta, the owner of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram, say they are working to combat deceptive or hateful content while helping voters find reliable sources. But researchers who have long tracked disinformation in India say their promises ring hollow after years of failed enforcement and “cookie-cutter” approaches that fail to account for India’s linguistic, religious, geographic and cultural diversity.

Given India’s size and its importance for social media companies, you might expect more of a focus, say disinformation researchers who focus on India.

“The platforms are earning money off of this. They are benefiting from it, and the whole country is paying the price,” said Ritumbra Manuvie a law professor at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. Manuvie is a leader of The London Story, an Indian diaspora group which last month organized a protest outside Meta’s London offices.

Research by the group and another organization, India Civil Watch International, found that Meta allowed political advertisements and posts that contained anti-Muslim hate speech, Hindu nationalist narratives, misogynistic posts about female candidates as well as ads encouraging violence against political opponents.

The ads were seen more than 65 million times over 90 days earlier this year. Together they cost more than $1 million.

Meta defends its work on global elections and disputed the findings of the research on India, noting that it has expanded its work with independent fact-checking organizations ahead of the election, and has employees around the world ready to act in case its platforms are misused to spread misinformation. Nick Clegg, Meta’s president of global affairs, said of India’s election: “It’s a huge, huge test for us.”

“We have months and months and months of preparation in India,” he told The Associated Press during a recent interview. “We have teams working around the clock. We have fact checkers in multiple languages operating in India. We have a 24-hour escalation system.”

YouTube is another problematic site for disinformation in India, experts say. To test how well that video-sharing platform was doing in enforcing its own rules, researchers at the nonprofits Global Witness and Access Now created 48 fake ads in English, Hindi and Telugu with false voting information or calls for violence. One claimed India raised its voting age to 21, though it remains 18, while another said women could vote by text message, though they cannot. A third called for the use of force at polling places.

When Global Witness submitted the ads to YouTube for approval, the response was disappointing, said Henry Peck, an investigator at Global Witness.

“YouTube didn’t act on any of them,” Peck said, and instead approved the ads for publication.

Google, YouTube’s owner, criticized the research and noted that it has multiple procedures in place to catch ads that violate its rules. Global Witness removed the ads before they could be spotted and blocked, the company said.

“Our policies explicitly prohibit ads making demonstrably false claims that could undermine participation or trust in an election, which we enforce in several Indian languages,” Google said in a statement. The company also noted its partnerships with fact-checking groups.

AI is this year’s newest threat, as advances in programs make it easier than ever to create lifelike images, video or audio. AI deepfakes are popping up in elections across the world, from Moldova to Bangladesh.

Senthil Nayagam, founder of an AI startup called Muonium AI, believes there is growing demand for deepfakes, especially of politicians. In the run up to the election, he had several inquiries on making political videos using AI. “There’s a market for this, no doubt,” he said.

Some of the fakes Nayagam produces feature dead politicians and are not meant to be taken seriously, but other deepfakes circulating online could potentially fool voters. It’s a danger Modi himself has highlighted.

“We need to educate people about artificial intelligence and deepfakes, how it works, what it can do,” Modi said.

India’s Information and Technology Ministry has directed social media companies to remove disinformation, especially deepfakes. But experts say a lack of clear regulation or law focused on AI and deepfakes makes it harder to squash, leaving it to voters to determine what is true and what is fiction.

For first-time voter Ankita Jasra, 18, these uncertainties can make it hard to know what to believe.

“If I don’t know what is being said is true, I don’t think I can trust in the people that are governing my country,” she said.

AP journalists Matt O’Brien in Providence, Rhode Island, and Rishi Lekhi in New Delhi contributed to this report.
Palestinian journalists win World Press Freedom Prize for Gaza war coverage

UNESCO pays tribute to "courage" of journalists facing "dangerous circumstances" in besieged Gaza where Israel has killed more than 140 journalists since October last year.



Israel’s war on besieged Gaza has become the deadliest, most dangerous conflict for journalists in recent history, UN experts say. / Photo: AA

UNESCO — the UN body that promotes world peace and security — has awarded its World Press Freedom Prize to all Palestinian journalists covering the war in Gaza, where Israel has launched a brutal invasion for more than six months, killing tens of thousands of civilians and turning the tiny enclave into the "deadliest" place for journalists in recent history.

"In these times of darkness and hopelessness, we wish to share a strong message of solidarity and recognition to those Palestinian journalists who are covering this crisis in such dramatic circumstances," Mauricio Weibel, chair of the international jury of media professionals announced on Thursday.

"As humanity, we have a huge debt to their courage and commitment to freedom of expression," he added.

Audrey Azoulay, director general at UNESCO, said the prize paid "tribute to the courage of journalists facing difficult and dangerous circumstances."



Last week a Palestinian journalist was killed in an Israeli air strike in Gaza, taking the death toll to 142 media personnel since October 7, 2023, according to Anadolu Agency.

Salem Abu Toyor, a reporter for Al-Quds TV, and his son lost their lives when Israeli fighter jets struck their home in the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza, the TV station said.

The pair were buried in the central city of Deir al Balah.



'No journalist in Gaza is spared'

The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) — a global body that promotes press freedom worldwide — says journalists in Gaza face particularly high risks as they try to cover the conflict during the Israeli assault, including devastating Israeli airstrikes.

Christophe Deloire, the secretary general of Reporters Without Borders, Paris-based non-governmental organisation focused on safeguarding the right to freedom of information, said, "If the numbers show anything, it is that since October 7, no place in Gaza is safe, no journalist in Gaza is spared, and the massacre has not stopped. We reiterate our urgent appeal to protect journalists in Gaza."



Only UN prize for journalists

World Press Freedom Prize honours an outstanding contribution to the defence and/or promotion of press freedom anywhere in the world, especially when this has been achieved in the face of danger.

It is the only such prize awarded to journalists by the UN.

The ongoing Israeli war on Gaza has resulted in devastating casualties. Israeli military has killed at least 34,596 Palestinians, with a staggering 70 percent being babies, children, and women, Palestinian officials say.

Additionally, more than 77,816 individuals have been wounded, while over10,000 people are feared buried under the debris of bombed structures.

SOURCE: TRTWORLD AND AGENCIES



 

70% of environment journalists report attacks, threats, pressure: UN

Seventy percent of environmental journalists from 129 countries, polled in March, reported experiencing attacks, threats or pressure related to their job, UNESCO said Thursday.

Of those, two in five subsequently experienced physical violence, it said in a report released on World Press Freedom Day. More than 900 reporters were questioned for the poll.

The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization warned of an increase in violence against and intimidation of journalists reporting on the environment and climate.

“Without reliable scientific information about the ongoing environmental crisis, we can never hope to overcome it,” UNESCO director general Audrey Azoulay said in a statement.

“And yet the journalists we rely on to investigate this subject and ensure information is accessible face unacceptably high risks all over the world, and climate-related disinformation is running rampant on social media.”

UNESCO said at least 749 journalists and news media outlets reporting on environmental issues were “targeted with murder, physical violence, detention and arrest, online harassment or legal attacks” between 2009 and 2023.

More than 300 of those attacks occurred between 2019 and 2023 –- a 42 percent increase on the preceding five-year period.

“The problem is global, with attacks taking place in 89 countries in all regions of the world,” the agency added.

– ‘Fear of being attacked’ –

At least 44 environmental journalists have been killed for their work in the past 15 years, with convictions in only five cases, said the report.

On top of hundreds of reported physical attacks, “a third of journalists surveyed said they had been censored,” it added.

“Almost half (45 percent) said they self-censored when covering the environment due to fear of being attacked, having their sources exposed, or due to an awareness that their stories conflicted with the interests of concerned stakeholders.”

At a press freedom conference in Chile this week, UNESCO will announce the launch of a grants program to provide legal and technical support to over 500 environmental journalists facing persecution, said the statement.

 Injured Reporter Says Georgian Police Used Rubber Bullets Against Protesters

   
More than a dozen people in Tbilisi sought treatment for injuries on May 2 following the latest round of protests over the controversial "foreign agents" bill. One reporter showed wounds that he said were caused by rubber bullets, but Georgia's Interior Ministry denied that its forces used projectiles to disperse the crowds.



Governments urged to call for an end to the prosecution of Jimmy Lai on World Press Freedom Day



Today is World Press Freedom Day, established by the United Nations General Assembly in 1993 to celebrate the principles of the freedom of the press and to protect the media from attacks on press freedom. To commemorate World Press Freedom Day, Hong Kong Watch Patron Lord Alton of Liverpool hosted the event, World Press Freedom Day: Hong Kong in the Shadow of Article 23, in the House of Lords on Wednesday.

Lord Alton of Liverpool was joined on a panel by Caoilfhionn Gallagher, KC, head of Jimmy Lai’s international legal team, Steve Vines, former Hong Kong journalist, Carmen Lau, International Advocacy and Programme Associate at Hong Kong Democracy Council (HKDC) and former Hong Kong District Councillor, and Benedict Rogers, co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of Hong Kong Watch.

The panel focused on the further erosion of the freedom of the press and other fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong following the recent enactment of the Safeguarding National Security Bill, which is implemented under ‘Article 23’ of the Basic Law of Hong Kong. Lord Alton of Liverpool opened the discussion by providing an overview of Article 23, saying: “The passage of Article 23 has led us here today, where we consider the commemoration of World Press Freedom Day in the shadow of the Hong Kong authorities and other authoritarian regimes around the world which continue to crack down on the free press.”

Benedict Rogers highlighted the work of Hong Kong Watch in response to the passage of Article 23, including our joint statements signed by 90 parliamentarians and over 85 civil society organisations condemning the legislation, as well as our joint statement from 16 experts of freedom of religion or belief raising concerns about Article 23’s implications on religious freedom in Hong Kong.

Mr Rogers emphasised Hong Kong Watch’s calls to action, including calling on the UK government to impose sanctions on Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee, declare Article 23 as a breach of the Sino-British Joint Declaration following the first application of the law, expand the British National (Overseas) (BNO) visa scheme to enable the children of BNO passport holders born before 1 July 1997 to apply for the visa scheme independently of their parents, grant home fees status to BNO visa holders, review the special privileges of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in London, and protect Hong Kongers in the UK from increasing threats of transnational repression.

Steve Vines spoke to his experience as a journalist in Hong Kong and to the dismantling of the free press in Hong Kong. “Journalism has become a very dangerous occupation in Hong Kong. Many of our colleagues are now on trial or awaiting sentencing, meaning if you want to be or even dare to be an independent journalist in Hong Kong, it is a terrible risk that you are taking,” said Mr Vines. Carmen Lau shared how the new security legislation is negatively impacting the freedom of the press in the city, and the greater Hong Kong diaspora around the world.

Raising the case Jimmy Lai, a British citizen facing prosecution for crimes of subversion allegedly committed in his role as the owner of pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, Caoilfhionn Gallagher, KC, head of Jimmy Lai’s international legal team, said:

“The numbers of political prisoners and prisoners of conscience in Hong Kong is astonishing, and only comparable to those of Belarus and Myanmar. What we are seeing in the case of Jimmy Lai is a dangerous trend of trying to wipe out independent journalism in Hong Kong. ‘Be silent, or you'll be next’ is the dangerous message his trial is trying to send.

On Friday, you will see the hashtag #JournalismIsNotACrime. In Hong Kong, journalism is a crime. This World Press Freedom Day, it is vitally important that we call out Hong Kong, because unlike other places where it is clear that journalism is a crime, Hong Kong is masquerading that it isn’t.”

Benedict Rogers, co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of Hong Kong Watch, said:

“On this World Press Freedom Day, Hong Kong Watch again calls for the immediate and unconditional release of and to cease prosecution against Jimmy Lai, and all political prisoners in Hong Kong who are behind bars for daring to publish the truth. Governments around the world must place pressure on the authorities in Beijing and Hong Kong to uphold their international legal obligations until those who continue to be jailed and prosecuted for exercising their rights are freed. Today and every day, it must be made clear that journalism is not a crime.”
World Press Freedom Day

2024 election year: EU Secretary General urges governments to protect journalists to safeguard democracy

STRASBOURG, 2 MAY 2024



In a statement to mark World Press Freedom Day on 3 May, Council of Europe Secretary General Marija Pejčinović Burić said: “As millions of citizens in Europe and other continents vote in crucial elections in 2024, we must recall the critical role that journalists and quality media play in ensuring access to pluralist and reliable information and diverse opinions and ideas, so that we can make informed choices when exercising our democratic rights.

“Without diverse, free, and independent media and journalists, true democracy decays and can perish. They are a pillar of democracy, and we should never forget that their freedom is also ours. However, for media and journalists to play their essential democratic role, they need to be able to work in a safe environment.

“As the 2024 annual report of the Council of Europe’s Platform to promote the protection of journalism and the safety of journalists shows, media freedom continues to be under constant attack in Europe. These threats include the unlawful deployment of spyware and abusive lawsuits against journalists, physical attacks, intimidation, detention, restrictive legislation, media capture and attacks on public service media.

“To address these challenges, Council of Europe member states should implement the Committee of Ministers Recommendation on the protection of journalism and safety of journalists and other media actors and develop national action plans as part of the Council of Europe Campaign “Journalists Matter”. A welcome development is that some member states have taken the first steps to roll out this initiative.

“Regarding, specifically, the growing practice of abusive lawsuits aiming to harass and silence journalists, media, and other watchdogs, member states should adopt legislative frameworks that enable everyone to participate in public debate and public affairs in safety and without fear. As a priority, they should implement the recently adopted Committee of Ministers Recommendation on the use of strategic lawsuits against public participation (SLAPPs).”
Brittney Griner says she considered suicide in Russian jail

Phoenix Mercury star Brittney Griner spoke for the first time about her detention


Patrick T. Fallon/Agence France-Presse via Getty Images US basketball player Brittney Griner, of the Phoenix Mercury, speaks during a news conference at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona on April 27, 2023.
 (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP) 

By ASSOCIATED PRESS | ap@dfmdev.com
PUBLISHED: May 2, 2024 

If you or someone you know is struggling with feelings of depression or suicidal thoughts, the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline offers free, round-the-clock support, information and resources for help. Call or text the lifeline at 988, or see the 988lifeline.org website, where chat is available.

PHOENIX (AP) — WNBA star Brittney Griner said she thought about killing herself during her first few weeks in a Russian jail after her 2022 arrest on drug-related charges.

Griner spoke for the first time about her monthslong detention in Russia during an hourlong interview that aired Wednesday night on ABC. Her memoir, “Coming Home,” is set to be released on May 7.

Griner was detained after arriving at a Moscow airport after Russian authorities said a search of her luggage revealed vape cartridges allegedly containing oil derived from cannabis.

“I wanted to take my life more than once in the first weeks,” Griner told interviewer Robin Roberts. “I felt like leaving here so badly.”

She decided against it in part because she was afraid the Russian authorities wouldn’t release her body to her family.

Her plight unfolded at the same time Russia invaded Ukraine and further heightened tensions between Russia and the U.S., ending only after she was freed in exchange for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout.

Griner said before she was released, she was forced to write a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“They made me write this letter. It was in Russian,” she said. “I had to ask for forgiveness and thanks from their so-called great leader. I didn’t want to do it, but at the same time I wanted to come home.”

She was disappointed when she got on the plane for the trade and that Paul Whelan, another American who has been detained in Russia, wasn’t with her.

“I walked on and didn’t see him, maybe he’s next. Maybe they will bring him next,” she said. “They closed the door and I was like, are you serious? You’re not going to let this man come home now.”

Griner plays for the Phoenix Mercury. The WNBA season begins on May 14.
Russian troops operating out of same base in Niger that hosts some US troops, 2 officials say

The development comes as the U.S. worries of rising Russian influence in Africa.

US discusses plans to withdraw troops from Niger

There are more than 1,000 military personnel stationed at an American drone base near the Nigerien city of Agadez.

By Anne Flaherty
May 2, 2024

Russian military personnel are operating out of an air base in Niger that is still hosting a small number of American troops, two U.S. officials tell ABC News.

The officials said the presence of Russians at Niger's "Airport 101" near the capital of Niamey did not present an immediate security concern to U.S. troops.

The Russian troops were operating out of a hangar at a location far away from U.S. forces and not on any property owned or being used by the United States, the officials said Thursday.


In this April 16, 2018 file photo a U.S. and Niger flag are raised side by side at the base camp for air for...Show more
Carley Petesch/AP, FILE

Still, the development -- first reported by Reuters -- speaks to U.S. concerns that Russia is aggressively trying to gain a foothold in West Africa, specifically Niger, where U.S. troops have been asked to leave after building a remote $150 million counterterrorism drone base in Agadez.

Following a coup in July 2023, the ruling junta in Niger demanded the exodus of U.S. troops. After talks between the two countries broke down this spring, the Pentagon said it would comply by withdrawing forces but didn't say how soon.

MORE: US to withdraw troops from Niger after military deal revoked

A U.S. official declined to say how many American troops remained at Airport 101 within proximity of the Russian forces there, but said the footprint was minimal.

The Biden administration had already begun consolidating troops in the region last fall as a precautionary measure, relocating troops at Airport 101 to the U.S. drone base in Agadez some 571 miles away.


 

Moscow Fearful Of Losing Its Military Bases In Armenia And Tajikistan – Analysis

Russia's 201st Military Base in Tajikistan. Photo Credit: mil.ru, Wikipedia Commons

By 

Since Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his team—who come from a generation formed not in Soviet times and do not speak Russian as a native language—took power in Yerevan six years ago, Armenia has been turning away from Russia and toward the West.

Moscow has supported the domestic opposition to Pashinyan’s team and has even tried to overthrow him in response to this turn and because of its interest in maintaining influence in the Caucasus. Moscow has used the tactic of divide-and-rule politics, currying favor with Azerbaijan to develop its much-ballyhooed north-south trade corridor (Profile.ru, December 19, 2023).

Despite treaty obligations to support Armenia in 2020 and again in 2022 when Azerbaijan restored control over Karabakh and adjoining territories, Moscow’s failure to follow through infuriated most Armenians and gave Pashinyan additional reasons for turning away from Moscow and toward the West. Yerevan has been hopeful that Western countries could provide it with the assistance Russia has not.

Yerevan’s agreement two weeks ago to return four villages to Azerbaijan as part of the peace process sparked new protests not only in border regions, but in the capital itself (see EDM, April 23). Moscow saw a new chance following this decision to exploit Armenian discontent with Pashinyan, which has increased even more since his government demanded that Russian border guards leave the region where the protests originated. This most recent round of protests continue and have similarly had echoes in Yerevan as well (Kavkaz Uzel, May 2). Once again, Moscow’s hopes that it can use unrest for its own ends have thus far gone unrealized. Still worse from the Kremlin’s point of view, Yerevan is now reportedly mulling demands for the closure of the Russian military base at Gyumri (Ekho Kavkaza;RITM Eurasia, April 20).

That consideration might raise the stakes for Moscow on its own, but more importantly, this move from Armenia may prompt other former Soviet states to reconsider the presence of Russian forces in their own countries. Some Russian security analysts suggest that the government of Tajikistan, already outraged by Moscow’s treatment of Tajik migrant workers in the wake of the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack, is being “infected” by such Armenian thinking and may demand that Moscow close its military base in Tajikistan. This move would, in the minds of some Russian writers, represent the wholesale collapse of Russian influence in the former Soviet space. These analysts suggest that this is the direct result of Moscow’s obsessive focus on Ukraine—to the neglect of developments elsewhere across the “near abroad” (T.me/sytosokrata, April 28; reposted at Charter97, April 29).

Lest the situation develops in that direction, Moscow has stepped up its pressure on the Armenian government to block such a demand. The closure of Moscow’s military bases in Armenia and Tajikistan, however, is probably unlikely in the near term, given that both Yerevan and Dushanbe have long-term agreements concerning these bases, the first until 2044 and the second until 2042.


Even if there is little likelihood Moscow would agree to withdraw, however, any open discussion of this possibility in Armenia and Tajikistan would create problems for the Kremlin. Russia has less leverage in Armenia today than history might suggest. Armenians have long been angry about the Gyumri base and the behavior of Russian officers there, as well as about how the bilateral accord regarding the base does not place any restrictions on the number of soldiers Moscow can place there (Novaya Gazeta, December 10, 12, 2023).

The influence of the Russian Orthodox Church in Armenia is minimal, thus reducing Moscow’s ability to play on any Armenian interest in having the support of another nominally Orthodox Christian country (Window on Eurasia, March 10). Additionally, the new ethnic Russian diaspora in Armenia, which arrived after 2022, is far more liberal and Europe-oriented than the one Moscow has exploited in neighboring Georgia, and is anything but supportive of Moscow’s position (Window on Eurasia, June 3, 2023).   

That leaves Russia with its three traditional options. First, ally itself with domestic opponents of Pashinyan, as it has been doing since 2018 (see EDM, April 8). Second, disseminate an active program of propaganda and disinformation (see EDM, October 5, 2023). Third, declare that Armenia is about to be destroyed economically and politically by its leaders and claim that only Moscow can prevent that from happening (see EDM, March 5, 14; VPO Analytics, May 1).

So far, as even some Moscow analysts admit, these threats have not worked (Vzglyad, April 27). Pashinyan and his government have parried these challenges with remarkable success. They have used a combination of tough police action against demonstrators both in the border villages and in Yerevan and numerous meetings with the protesters to prevent the demonstrations from spreading (Vestnik Kavkaza, April 28; Kavkaz Uzel, May 2). They have challenged Russian propaganda about the border, highlighting that any concessions are intended to leave Armenia with internationally recognized and secured borders, and argued that Armenia’s rapprochement with the West in no way threatens Russia.  Rather, Yerevan has indicated that Armenia remains interested in having good economic and even political relations with Moscow (Vestnik Kavkaza, April 30).

Such declarations have been so fervent that some Russian writers argue they represent an Armenian effort to “make peace” with Russia (Vestnik Kavkaza, April 28). That view finds some support in the wake of Armenian Foreign Minister Tigran Balayan’s declaration that “Russia has nothing to fear from the European Union in the South Caucasus,” given that Armenia’s location means that “historically and practically it has so many links to Russia,” and that anyone who thinks Armenia can break all of them is living in a fantasy world (Politico.eu, April 28). 

Vestnik Kavkaza, however, says that “if Yerevan really wants to calm Moscow, it should give guarantees that there will be no spread of any military presence of the European Union, the United States, and NATO [the North Atlantic Treaty Organization] onto the territory of Armenia and not waste time talking about that in the media” (Vestnik Kavkaza, April 28). Given Moscow’s attitude, tensions between Russia and Armenia are likely to grow. Moscow can be expected to use the resources it has, including ties with the Armenian opposition, to try to force Pashinyan to change course, lest he be ousted.

That conclusion is all the more likely because Moscow now has the additional concern that what Armenia is doing is serving as “a bad example” to Tajikistan. Some Russian outlets report that Dushanbe’s consideration of closing of the Russian base on its territory utilizes exactly the same language Armenian officials are using about Gyumri (Infoshos.ru, April 28; VPO Analytics, May 1). Such reports are likely to prompt Moscow to use what resources it has to step up the pressure not only on Armenia but on Tajikistan as well, a move certain to trigger new and broader conflicts in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Ukraine Military Situation: Russian Forces Make Significant Battlefield Advances And Tactical Gains – Analysis


Ukrainian soldiers. Photo Credit: Ukraine Defense Ministry


May 3, 2024 
Hudson Institute
By Can Kasapoğlu

1. Battlefield Assessment

Last week, Moscow’s widening artillery advantage and Kyiv’s stumbling mobilization efforts allowed Russian forces to make significant battlefield advances and tactical gains on multiple fronts. In the meantime, Russian air and missile strikes continued to pound major Ukrainian population centers.

Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in heavy clashes and positional fighting in Ukraine’s south and east. Open-source intelligence and satellite imagery show that the most intense combat in the east occurred around Bakhmut, Spirne, Avdiivka, and Chasiv Yar. The latter remains under the most intense pressure. In the south, Russia continued to focus on dismantling Ukrainian positions in the Robotyne bulge, Kyiv’s most significant gain from last year’s counteroffensive, and Krynky, the site of Ukraine’s bridgehead across the Dnipro River.

Available indicators also suggest that Russia has been increasing its troop concentrations in Donetsk Oblast at an alarming rate. Russian engineering units, meanwhile, have been working to connect existing trenches with new fortifications extending to Belgorod Oblast in the east and Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the south.

The Kremlin supplemented its ground offensives with drone and missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This week the Ukrainian Air Force reported interception rates of approximately 60 percent against these missile salvos. Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy, meanwhile, revealed that Russian strikes significantly damaged facilities in southern and western Ukraine, including in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv.

Kyiv also continued to conduct counteroffensive measures against targets inside Russia. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) struck two oil refineries and a critical airbase in Krasnodar Krai. Visual evidence from the impact site indicates that these strikes caused significant damage to a warehouse and depot that Russia uses to store UMPK guided bombs. The UMPK, humorously referred to as the “JDAMski” for its similarity to the American Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), is a wing-equipped guidance kit that transforms dumb munitions into guided smart bombs. This innovation transforms legacy weapons, such as the FAB-500 and FAB-1500, into more lethal assets and enables frontal bomber aircraft to release munitions from safer distances.

2. It Is ATACMS Happy Hour for Ukraine, but Kyiv Still Needs the German Taurus Missile


The United States is sending Ukraine a new $1 billion aid package that includes air-defense interceptors, armored vehicles, anti-tank weapons, cluster munitions, and other artillery rounds. This suggests that relief is on the horizon for Kyiv and indicates that Washington may have awakened to the grim possibility of a Russian victory in Ukraine.

Press sources last week noted another important transaction, which went unreported for over a month. In March 2024, the United States allegedly provided Kyiv with additional Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missiles, including the longer-range variant that is effective up to almost 200 miles. Washington funded this undercover transfer with savings from other arms contracts, disguised it in another $300 million aid package, and delivered the missiles before the US Congress passed its recent $60 billion supplemental assistance bill. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainehas already used the ATACMS to strike occupied Crimea.

The design philosophy that informs the ATACMS prioritizes hitting the rear area of an adversary’s critical assets and sharpens deep battle capabilities. The system’s baseline has evolved into several variants in the decades since its combat debut in the Desert Storm campaign of the early 1990s; the most impressive of these is arguably the ATACMS Block 1A unitary warhead configuration, which poses a robust threat against hardened targets. The ATACMS family offers a balanced and much-needed response to the deep-strike weapons that Russia currently employs thanks to transfers from Tehran and Pyongyang.

But Ukraine still lacks the weapon best-suited for use against strategic targetslike the Kerch Bridge, which connects the Crimean Peninsula to mainland Russia: the German Taurus missile. The Taurus’s advanced fuse configuration possesses smart-void sensors that allow the weapon to estimate the time required to penetrate different layers of a target after initial impact. This unique feature gives the Taurus an advantage over the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG missiles Ukraine has acquired from Britain, France, and, recently, Italy. If Berlin wishes to arm Ukraine for victory, it should consider supplying Kyiv with the Taurus missiles it needs.

3. Ukraine Struggles in the Battle for Ocheretyne


In recent days, Russian forces focused overwhelming offensive efforts on Ocheretyne, a small rural town in eastern Ukraine.

Since the early stages of the conflict, Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade has assumed an essential role in the country’s defensive combat efforts. Kyiv has empowered the brigade to turn the tide in the fiercest battles, including in the prolonged fight for Avdiivka, which eventually ended with a full Ukrainian withdrawal from the city.

The soldiers of the 47th Mechanized Brigade are currently tasked with holding the line in Ocheretyne, alongside individual battalions of other brigades. But these units face growing losses. During a recent rotation that some analysts allege was deeply flawed, Ukrainian troops failed to properly man the front line, leaving a critical gap that Russian combat formations—in particular the 30th Motor Rifle Brigade—swiftly exploited. Open-source intelligence suggests that the 47th Mechanized may be approaching exhaustion, paving the way for what could be one of the quickest Russian victories in months. The 115th Brigade’s efforts to relieve the 47th have not yet succeeded against of the overwhelming Russian push.

4. Ukraine’s Innovative Drones Continue to Trouble Russia


Ukraine’s expanding defense technological and industrial base has been rapidly inventing new solutions. Kyiv’s new long-range, fixed-wing kamikaze drone, the RAM II, follows concepts of operations akin to those of Russia’s Lancet loitering munitions.

The RAM II is part of a broader burden-sharing system fueling the proliferation of Ukraine’s drone program. Under this system, longer-range strategic drones conduct deep strikes on critical Russian military assets like military bases, while swarms of smaller, first-person-view (FPV) drones hunt Russian armored vehicles, main battle tanks, and infantry.

The RAM II has an even more interesting job. The drone operates over air defense zones and preys on Russian surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, clearing the way for the Ukrainian Air Force to conduct strike missions. The RAM helps minimize risk for Ukrainian pilots while eliminating Russian air defense assets.

Military-grade balloons have also aided Kyiv’s efforts in the skies. Reports from the battlefield suggest that Ukraine, mimicking an earlier Russian tactic, is now bolstering its strike packages with weather balloons that drop mortars. Controlled with commercial electronics and software that calculate wind dynamics for optimal performance and navigation, these assets provide Kyiv with a cheap and effective asymmetrical impact at the tactical level. Ukraine’s armed balloons can fly deep into Russian territory and strike critical targets miles behind the front lines.


About the author: Can Kasapoğlu is a Senior Fellow (Nonresident)
Source: This article was published by the Hudson Institute
Hudson Institute is a nonpartisan policy research organization dedicated to innovative research and analysis that promotes global security, prosperity, and freedom.

WWIII

Macron floats Ukraine troop deployment if frontline breached

French President Emmanuel Macron said the question of sending Western troops to Ukraine would “legitimately” arise if Russia broke through Ukrainian front lines and Kyiv made such a request, in an interview with the Economist published Thursday.

Macron in the interview doubled down on his comments from earlier this year of not ruling out sending troops to Ukraine, which sent shockwaves through Europe and unsettled allies including Germany. Most of France’s allies said at the time they would not send any forces.

The Economist said Macron gave the interview after delivering a keynote speech last week, in which he declared that Europe is “mortal” and could “die” partly due to the threat posed by Russian aggression after its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

“Absolutely. I’m not ruling anything out, because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out,” said Macron when asked if he stood by his earlier comments made on February 26.

Macron said “if Russia decided to go further, we will in any case all have to ask ourselves this question” of sending troops, describing his refusal to rule out such a move as a “strategic wake-up call for my counterparts”.

His latest comments come as some analysts believe that Russia could be on the verge of launching a major new offensive in Ukraine. Russia said Thursday it had captured another village in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow’s forces have been making advances for days. 

– ‘Clear strategic objective’ – 

Macron described Russia under President Vladimir Putin as “a power of regional destabilisation” and “a threat to Europeans’ security”.

“I have a clear strategic objective: Russia cannot win in Ukraine,” Macron said.

“If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe. 

“Who can pretend that Russia will stop there? What security will there be for the other neighbouring countries, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and the others?” he asked.

Macron pointed out that while the Kremlin preferred to use the term “special military operation” early in its invasion, “now Russia itself uses the word ‘war’ and acknowledges it. 

“It has broken all the frameworks and has basically returned to a logic of total war,” he said.

He suggested that Moscow’s war machine was not sustainable over the long term.

“Devoting a third of its budget to defence is not sustainable for a country whose gross domestic product is lower than that of France, Germany or the United Kingdom,” he said.

Hungary, whose Prime Minister Victor Orban is seen as the strongest supporter of Putin within the EU, took issue with Macron’s latest statements.

“If a NATO member commits ground troops, it will be a direct NATO-Russia confrontation, and then it will be World War III,” Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said.

Following Macron’s initial comments on possible troop deployments, most of France’s European allies said they would not send any.

But Macron said Europe faced not just a military and security risk but also “an economic risk for our prosperity” and  “an existential risk of internal incoherence and disruption to the functioning of our democracies.” 

“Things can fall apart very quickly,” the French president added.

Ahead of the European Parliament elections next month, he warned voters against voting for nationalists. 

“I say to Europeans: Wake up… All European nationalists are hidden Brexiteers. It’s all the same lies,” he said, referring to those in Britain who backed its exit from the European Union.

“Make no mistake. If you entrust the keys to people who think like they do, there is no reason why Europe should become a great power,” he said.

By Stuart Williams / Francesco Fontemaggi