Column: This GOP-leaning political polling firm has turned into a purveyor of anti-vaccine propaganda

By Michael Hiltzik

Business Columnist 

 Los Angeles Times.

June 19, 2024 

Rasmussen Reports used to be a fairly creditable and credible political polling organization, good enough to be included among the pollsters relied on by services such as FiveThirtyEight to give a broad-spectrum gauge of voter sentiment in the run-up to state and federal elections.

It’s true that Rasmussen had a detectable pro-Republican “house effect,” in polling parlance — but one that was consistent enough to compensate for in published polling averages.

But something has happened to Rasmussen in recent years. Not only have its results become more sharply partisan, favoring Republican and conservative politicians, but it also has increasingly promoted right-wing conspiracy theories on topics such as race relations, election results and — perhaps most troubling — COVID vaccines and COVID origins.

By random chance alone...there will be a large number of people who die within, say, 30 days of being vaccinated even if the vaccine has absolutely nothing to do with their deaths.

— Pseudoscience debunker David Gorski, MD

Earlier this month, Rasmussen tweeted the results of polls it conducted in June 2023 and last month, claiming to find that 1 in 5 Americans believe they know someone who died from a COVID vaccine.

There are many reasons to disregard any such poll asking people what they think about a scientifically validated fact — in this case, that the record shows overwhelmingly that the COVID vaccines widely used in the U.S. are safe and effective.

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But Rasmussen has doubled down on its findings. In a series of tweets on June 9, it declared, first: “If the numbers implied by our COVID polling are correct, the vaccines killed more people worldwide than Jews killed in the Holocaust.”

Then it tweeted: “China lied. Fauci lied. People died.” And followed that with: “The government take over of medicine was as deadly as always predicted.”

In other words, Rassmussen has morphed from a quantifier of public opinion into a participant in the spread of noxious propaganda. It still tries to validate its results by claiming that they’re “relevant, timely and accurate,” citing its “track record.”

But that track record has been sprouting gray hairs. The most recent election polling cited by the web page documenting its track record is from 2010.



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More recently, 538, now owned by ABC News, dropped Rasmussen from its polling averages in March. ABC took that step after Rasmussen failed to respond suitably to a questionnaire 538 submitted asking Rasmussen to explicate its polling methodology. Rasmussen published ABC’s query on its website under the headline, “ABC News: ‘Answer Our Questions -- Or Else!’”

I asked Rasmussen Reports by phone and email to comment on its tweet and its polling, but received no response.

Rasmussen’s veer to the far right has been noticeable for several years. Founded in 2003 by pollster Scott Rasmussen, the firm’s forecasts received high marks for accuracy in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. But it fell short in 2012, predicting victories for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in several states that Obama won.

As my colleague James Rainey observed in the aftermath, the Rasmussen polls had been used by conservative media outlets “to prop up a narrative in the final days of the campaign that Romney had momentum and a good chance of winning the White House.”

In 2013, Scott Rasmussen left the firm due to unspecified business disagreements with its owner, the private equity firm Noson Lawen Partners.

In recent years, the firm has resembled a pollster-for-hire appealing to conservative organizations and authors. During the Trump administration, it became known for “a social media presence that embraced false claims that spread widely on the right,” Philip Bump of the Washington Post observed in March.

The firm’s treatment of the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, in which Democrat Katie Hobbs defeated Republican Kari Lake, is a good example. In March 2023, Rasmussen reported the results of a poll it had conducted four months after the election, purportedly finding (according to a headline on its website) that “most Arizona voters believe election ‘irregularities’ affected outcome.”


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According to Rasmussen, 51% of Arizona voters chose Lake and only 43% voted for Hobbs. The poll placed the election turnout at 92%; actually it was 62.6%.

On Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast, Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen’s lead pollster, said its results showed that “people in Arizona, by and large, think that cheating happened.” That unsupported assertion, of course, is the core of the long, fruitless campaign to overturn the election by Lake — who gleefully cited the Rasmussen results.

Rasmussen polls on COVID vaccines and other such topics aren’t entirely worthless. They may not tell us anything useful about scientific research or electoral results, but they do offer a window into how propaganda and claptrap have penetrated deeply into our political discourse, at least within the right-wing fever swamp.

That brings us back to its polling on COVID and COVID vaccines. Rasmussen’s methodology seems to include wording its questions as if they are stating a fact, no matter how dubious. For its May 2024 poll of 1,250 American adults, for instance, it asked, “Do you know someone personally who died from side effects of the COVID-19 vaccine?” Rasmussen reported that 19% replied in the affirmative; the poll had a margin of error of 3%.

Such questions have obvious flaws. The most important is that most respondents have no way of knowing whether an acquaintance’s death was related to the vaccine; nor does Rasmussen, which conducts its polls with robot calls, have any way of authenticating the respondent’s answer.

Blaming the COVID vaccines for a tide of undocumented injuries and deaths is a popular theme in the anti-vaccine community.

For them, it has the virtue of being suggestive and unverifiable; with nearly 700 million doses of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines having been administered in the U.S. alone, the law of large numbers implies that “by random chance alone ... there will be a large number of people who die within, say, 30 days of being vaccinated even if the vaccine has absolutely nothing to do with their deaths,” in the words of veteran pseudoscience debunker David Gorski.

It’s not unusual for the death or illness of a prominent entertainer or athlete to provoke swarms of anti-vaxxers to assert that the victim must have been recently vaccinated. Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo, who I earlier identified as “the most dangerous quack in America” and a “card-carrying member of the anti-vaccine mafia,” misrepresented published research to claim that the COVID vaccine presented an elevated threat of cardiac problems for young men.


Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo, seen here with his political patron Gov. Ron DeSantis, has promoted the long-debunked idea that the COVID vaccines are more dangerous than the disease.
(Chris O’Meara / Associated Press)

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The research said no such thing; on the contrary, it said that the risk of cardiac death from the vaccines was statistically nonexistent and, indeed, lower than the risk of cardiac death resulting from catching COVID-19 itself.

Despite all that, conjectures by laypersons that the illness or death of acquaintances can be traced to the vaccines are legion. One promoter of the idea, economist Mark Skidmore of Michigan State University, even concluded from an anonymous database of 2,840 respondents compiled by a third-party survey firm that the number of respondents who said they knew someone who had died from the vaccine meant that the number of deaths from the vaccine in the U.S. “may be as high as 278,000.”

Skidmore’s paper citing that statistic was retracted last year by the peer-reviewed journal that had published it.

Rasmussen’s promotion of its vaccine-related balderdash is replete with weasel words, as if the firm is opting for plausible deniability.

In its tweet stating that “If the numbers implied by our COVID polling are correct, the vaccines killed more people worldwide than Jews killed in the Holocaust,” for instance, the word “if” carries a lot of baggage — not that its invocation of the Holocaust is defensible under the circumstances.

Similarly, its tweet, “China lied. Fauci lied. People died” refers to a question on its June 23 poll about COVID, in which it asks respondents to agree or disagree with that phrase. (This is known as “JAQing,” for “just asking questions.”)

As for its tweet stating, “The government take over of medicine was as deadly as always predicted,” that’s cast as a comment on a tweet by the former CBS and Fox reporter-turned-conspiracy-monger Lara Logan. She had written, “Pointing out how [Anthony] Fauci was seen by many as one of the worst mass killers in history — is what got me taken off the air at Fox. It was true then — and it is true now.”

Leave aside that the U.S. government has not staged a “take over of medicine,” much less that government action in healthcare has been “deadly.”

Make no mistake: Rasmussen is responsible for these tweets, and deserves blame helping to foment a mass delusion about the vaccines that may have cost the lives of vaccine resisters. If it ever had a reputation for trustworthiness, it doesn’t have it any longer.

Michael Hiltzik
Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Michael Hiltzik has written for the Los Angeles Times for more than 40 years. His business column appears in print every Sunday and Wednesday, and occasionally on other days. Hiltzik and colleague Chuck Philips shared the 1999 Pulitzer Prize for articles exposing corruption in the entertainment industry. His seventh book, “Iron Empires: Robber Barons, Railroads, and the Making of Modern America,” was published in 2020. His forthcoming book, “The Golden State,” is a history of California. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/hiltzikm and on Facebook at facebook.com/hiltzik.

'A great loss': Yemen bids farewell to one of its last remaining Jews

Residents of Madar, Yahya Ben Youssef's village, say he was beloved and appreciated by the local Muslim community, and he chose to stay despite opportunities to leave; only 5 Jews remain in country

Lior Ben Ari|

Updated:Yesterday | 

Following the death of Yahya Ben Youssef last week, the Jewish community in Yemen has dwindled to just five members, among them his elderly wife, who did not attend his funeral and is feared to have the same illness that claimed her husband’s life.

Yahya, who had no children, was laid to rest by his Muslim neighbors in the village of Madar, north of the capital, Sanaa.

 
Yahya Ben Youssef
(Photo: via social media)
A local source, familiar with the situation, confirmed that only five Jews now remain in Yemen. One of them has been detained since late 2015 for participating in a smuggling operation to deliver a Torah scroll to Israel.
"Yahya was beloved by his village," the source said. "He was a good man. That’s why when he passed away, all the villagers came to bury him and held a funeral for him." A new video from the funeral shows residents carrying Yahya's body, wrapped in a Jewish prayer shawl, to a grave on a hilltop near the village.
Despite some opposition at the burial site, most villagers supported the funeral. "Yahya refused to live in the Amran province’s Al Rida area, where the other Jews reside because he loved Sanaa and his Muslim neighbors there," the source added.


The funeral in Yemen

Yahya had previously moved to Al Rida before 2013, living in the home of a man now residing in the Emirates, but he eventually returned to his childhood village, where he passed away.
The source noted that other Yemeni Jews frequently visited Yahya. "The Jews in Al Rida loved him and always visited him, offering him to move, but he didn't want to leave. They recently offered him to leave Yemen, but he declined, possibly due to his old age. The villagers said his death is a great loss."

OPINION - The extreme-right and European politics: How worried should we be?

The growing electoral appeal of the extreme-right presents a major challenge for liberal democracy and for the European Union (EU). 

The era of stability that saw the emergence and consolidation of the EU is now over

Gerard Delanty |19.06.2024 -

 

People attend a demonstration against far-right and racism under the theme of “A Democratic Europe” in the Deutz district before the European Parliament elections in Cologne, Germany on June 1, 2024.

- The author is a Professor Emeritus of Sociology, University of Sussex, UK. He is the author of Senses of the Future: Conflicting Ideas of the Future in the World Today. (Berlin: De Gruyter, 2024).

-The extreme-right may be at the moment of consolidation in Europe but, arguably, they are also at their highpoint; they are a diverse and volatile group of parties and movements with limited capacity to govern

- If Trump is re-elected later this year, the extreme-right in Europe as elsewhere will find a new source of legitimation; if Russia succeeds in overwhelming Ukraine, the largely pro-Russia extremist parties will gain additional leverage

-If there is a cause for concern, it is less that we will see a takeover by the extreme-right than a failure of governance by the center in the wake of what is increasingly looking like a crisis of governability

ISTANBUL

To understand the outcome of the elections to the European Parliament (EP) it is necessary to see the election in the context of (1) national politics (2) global politics and (3) societal transformation. The extreme-right may be at the moment of consolidation in Europe but, arguably, they are also at their highpoint; they are a diverse and volatile group of parties and movements with limited capacity to govern.

Significant moment in the post-war history of Europe

The recent elections to the European Parliament represent a significant moment in the post-war history of Europe. The growing electoral appeal of the extreme right presents a major challenge for liberal democracy and for the European Union (EU). The era of stability that saw the emergence and consolidation of the EU is now over. The question, however, is how significant the extreme right is and whether we should be worried that what we are witnessing is a dangerous drift towards authoritarianism in Europe in a context of greater instability.

Some contextualization is important. The results of the election, largely expected, can be read in different ways. While ever more voters – and in this instance surprisingly large number of younger voters especially in Germany – supported extreme right-wing parties, the majority of Europeans did not. As is well known, European Parliament elections do not have the same impact as national elections. However, despite the drift to the radical right, it seems that the center ground has prevailed, despite a significant challenge. This does not mean that we can be complacent and think nothing has changed. The extreme right has made significant gains. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), won the second-largest number of votes in Germany, after the center-right opposition. However, the extreme right is not a cohesive bloc, especially in terms of representation in the European Parliament, where it does not speak with one voice.

The Nordic countries, which all experienced a rise in radical right parties, voted for predominately left-green. There is a wide variety of parties across Europe that advocate authoritarianism, from right-wing populist parties to more radical right-wing ones to the harder neo-fascist extreme right. It is a volatile spectrum of forces that has captured much of the ground from established parties of the left and the right, but they are not all neo-fascists.

What is the outlook for the extreme right in European countries?

My sense of the current situation is that we are probably witnessing the highpoint of the extreme right. It may be the case that the extreme right has also reached the point of consolidation, but in view of the volatility of the parties and their electoral support, that is by no means self-evident. Perhaps more clear-cut is the normalization of their political concerns – anti-migration, anti-Green, and anti-EU. However, this normalization is as likely to take place on the national level of the major parties of the right and left who adapt their policies to the extreme right. This may be the ultimate testimony of their influence, leading to a more general drift towards right-wing ideology but not necessarily a shift to the extreme-right taking over. The exception here is Hungary, but then the Fidesz party is more an example of right-wing populism than extreme-right.

If we look at the EU and the wider European area, including the United Kingdom (UK), it is arguably the case that Europe as a whole is more united than divided and that the real divisions are within national countries. Yet, many countries have stepped back from the brink. Poland and Spain have clearly rejected the extreme right in recent national elections. The outcome of the general election in the UK next month will almost certainly lead to a landslide Labour government.

Ireland does not have any significant extreme-right-wing parties. It has instead Sinn Fein, a left-inclined populist party that also is the placeholder for potential radical right-wing voters. Despite the electoral success in the Netherlands of Geert Wilder’s Party For Freedom (PVV) which is more of a right-wing populist party than Extreme Right as such, he was not able to enter government.
France is perhaps the most troubled country. Its large agricultural sector, the source of much discontent, is under threat and probably unsustainable in its present organization. The overall picture is that the extreme right has limited capacity for government while having considerable ideological influence as their agendas are becoming increasingly normalized. The lesson of the monumental failure of Brexit is also all too clearly visible. A product of the radical right-wing politics, it has been a demonstrable failure and a warning to others not to follow.

Why is the extreme right on the rise?

There are two additional considerations. The rise of the extreme right must also be seen in the context of major societal structural change and in the context of global politics. Europe, like much of the rest of the world, is undergoing major societal upheaval as a result of the double transition to the digital economy and the green economy, a transition that is occurring in the context of climate change and now insecurity due to the need for increased military expenditure for defense against Russia. This is all unfolding in the context of major demographic shifts and the collapse of the possibility of an inclusive society. The nation has become a zone of struggle and division.

The other context is the global one whereby the world, at least the Northern Hemisphere, is re-aligning into two blocs, the Western liberal democracies and authoritarian states in Asia, with Russia and China at the center of these. In this shift in the balance of world power, there is much instability and uncertainty. Ukraine and Donald Trump in the United States (US) are such instances of global volatility and reference points for the extreme right, but with unclear consequences how these will play out. If Trump is re-elected later this year, the extreme right in Europe as elsewhere will find a new source of legitimation; if Russia succeeds in overwhelming Ukraine, the largely pro-Russia extremist parties will gain additional leverage.

What happens if the rise of extreme-rights is successful?

The success of the extreme right can be attributed to their ability to express all kinds of social grievances without offering solutions. They are receptacles of discontent that are particularly attractive to voters of authoritarian dispositions. They appeal especially both to those who tend to see their situation as unfavorable – due to falling standards of living, rising cost of living, housing crisis, stagnant wages, and loss of social status – and to those who are prone to resentment regardless of their situation.

The extreme right are product of inchoate anger which easily combines with a cultural backlash against anything that is representative of progress. A characteristic of the politics of resentment is that it is not fixed but is volatile and unpredictable. These parties with their focus on the figure of the migrants are more adept at mobilizing discontent than left-wing parties or those of the center since they don’t have to grapple with the problem of solidarity and the challenges of the Green transition. And there is the simple reality that European societies need migrant workers.

My overall conclusion is that the results of the European Parliament elections are in line with the general rise of the extreme right but this is not a cataclysmic moment; future trends are likely to see the continued influence of the extreme right through the normalization of populist politics as the center parties adapt to them. But there are also countertrends and we may be witnessing the high point of the extreme right. If there is a cause for concern, it is less likely that we will see a takeover by the extreme right than a failure of governance by the center in the wake of what is increasingly looking like a crisis of governability.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu

France’s Macron faces transphobia accusations after criticising left-wing coalition manifesto

French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday faced accusations of transphobia after lashing out at the snap election manifesto of a new left-wing coalition, in particular a proposal allowing citizens to change their gender at the town hall.


Issued on: 19/06/2024 -

Emmanuel Macron visits the island of Sein to commemorate the 84th anniversary of General Charles de Gaulle's June 18th appeal to the French people to refuse to accept defeat in World War II. © Christophe Ena, AFP

The emergence of the New Popular Front, which groups left-wingers from Socialists to Communists, has been an unwelcome development for Macron since he called the snap elections in response to his party's defeat by the far right in European polls.

His ruling alliance is forecast by opinion polls to come only third in the legislative elections on June 30 – followed by a second round on July 7 – behind the RN and the new left-wing alliance.

But Macron said Tuesday on a visit to western France that he "had confidence in the French".

"They see well what is on offer. The RN and its allies offer things which may make people happy but in the end we are talking 100 billion (euros) a year."

"And on the other side, with the extreme left it's four times worse – there is no more secularity, they will go back on the immigration law and there are things that are completely farcical like changing your gender at the town hall," he added.

The left-wing coalition's programme includes a proposal allowing the change of civil status in a town hall. LFI lawmaker Andy Kerbrat told gay magazine Tetu this week that changing gender would be possible by filing a request at the town hall.

Macron's remarks appeared to cause disquiet even in the ranks of his own ruling Renaissance party.

"For trans people, for LGBT people, for everyone... we must reject all stigmatisation in political discourse and advance rights," Renaissance MP Clément Beaune, who is openly gay, wrote on X.

"Emmanuel Macron is using transphobia to attack the programmes of his political opponents," said Julia Torlet of NGO SOS Homophobie.

"The strategy is clear: use minorities in the race for power," she added.

Read moreTwelve days to convince: What outcome to French snap election campaign?
'We got Nero'

His comments also sparked an immediate counter-attack from left-wing opponents.

"We were waiting for Jupiter but we got Nero," sniped Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure.

Macron before becoming head of state in 2017 had said France needed a "Jupiterian" presidency in reference to the Roman king of the gods. Nero was one of the Roman emperors most notorious for tyrannical rule.

"How is it possible that this man who was elected and re-elected to confront the extreme right is in reality repeating the discourse of the extreme right?" Faure told RTL.

Communist Party chief Fabien Roussel told Franceinfo that the comments were a sign Macron was "losing his nerve".

"I sense a bit of febrility," he said.

The comments marked a rare intervention by Macron in the campaign, which is being led for the ruling centrist alliance by 35-year-old Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, with multiple voices within Renaissance encouraging the president to keep a lower profile.

(AFP)

South Korea declares ‘demographic national emergency’

President Yoon Suk Yeol vows to make all-out efforts to tackle ultralow birth rate

PLEASE PHUQUE

Anadolu staff |19.06.2024 -


ANKARA

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday declared a "demographic national emergency" amid a low birth rate and an aging population in the East Asian country.

Announcing the demographic national emergency, President Yoon vowed to make all-out efforts to tackle the country's ultralow birth rate, Seoul-based Yonhap News Agency reported.

"Today, I officially declare a demographic national emergency. We will activate a pan-government comprehensive response system until the low birth rate issue is overcome," the news agency quoted Yoon as saying.

South Korea is facing low birth rates and aging populations as the country recorded a fresh low total fertility rate of 0.72 last year.

According to a report, South Korean couples avoid starting a family and having children for several reasons, including the high cost of housing, education, and long working hours.

However, President Yoon promised to take concrete steps such as increasing parental leave allowances, extending leave for fathers, implementing flexible work hours, and easing the educational burden on parents.

*Writing by Islamuddin Sajid

Seven held after Paris protest against arms company linked to Israel

Reporter remains in custody after refusing to give police access to her phone, says her employer


Seven people have been arrested over a protest at the headquarters of Exxelia in Paris

The National
Jun 19, 2024

Seven people including a journalist remained in custody in Paris on Wednesday, 24 hours after their arrest for participating in a protest at the offices of a company that makes chips for drones sold to Israel, according to the prosecutor's office.

The arrests were confirmed after French media organisation Blast said on X that one of its journalists had been detained while she was covering the protest at the headquarters of weapons company Exxelia.

READ MORE

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The prosecutor's office told AFP that the people were detained for “joining a group with the aim of committing voluntary damage … after entering the site of company Exxelia”.

The reporter, who has not been named, had not been released because she refused to give police access to her phone, said Blast. It is understood that the six other people also remain in detention.

NGO Reporters Without Borders asked for the reporter's immediate release and warned that her sources could be compromised.

The journalist had been working for weeks on an investigative piece on French weapons sales to Israel, which have attracted renewed interest since the start of Israel's military offensive against Gaza in October.

NGOs in a number of European countries have in recent months sued their governments in a bid to halt such sales. In France, 11 NGOS filed three separate cases in front of a Paris court. They were all rejected.

France is one of Israel's weapons providers, though not among the most important. In 2022, it delivered just over €15 million in armaments, according to Amnesty France.

Exxelia has been under investigation since 2018 for complicity in war crimes after the family of three children killed in July 2014 in an Israeli missile attack in Gaza filed a complaint at a Paris court.

Analysis of missile debris found in the house where they died showed it included components made by French company Eurofarad – which was bought in 2015 by Exxelia Technologies – and sold to Israeli company Rafael.

Similar protests against weapons manufacturers that have Israeli clients have taken place across Europe. Footage of protesters from Palestine Action damaging equipment in south-east England was released on Tuesday.

The demonstrators, who wore orange jumpsuits, were shown in the video dismantling three fences to enter the Instro Precision site in the town of Sandwich. They then crawled in through a smashed window and threw stock to the ground and smashed computers with a crowbar.

Palestine Action says Instro Precision is owned by Elbit, one of Israel's largest defence contractors, and produces military-grade electro-optical equipment at the site.

Seven people were arrested and an investigation is under way, Kent Police said in a statement.

Updated: June 19, 2024, 3:27 AM

 

MT MERAPI ON JAVA ISLAND EMITS LAVA, PYROCLASTIC FLOWS, REACHING 1.5 KM

19/06/2024

JAKARTA, June 19 (Bernama) -- Mount Merapi, an active volcano in Central Java and Yogyakarta, has recently emitted lava and pyroclastic flows that reached distances of up to 1.5 kilometres from its summit.

These flows are moving towards upstream rivers nearby, prompting urgent warnings from authorities for residents to avoid the danger zones.

The Yogyakarta Geological Disaster Technology Research and Development Centre (BPPTKG) reported that on Tuesday at 8.55 pm, the flows were observed heading towards the Bebeng River.

"The volcano emitted weakly pressurised white smoke, reaching heights of 25 to 50 metres above the crater," said the BPPTKG.

In its latest report on Wednesday, it stated that there was one pyroclastic flow and 11 lava flows, all directed southwest with a maximum runout distance of 1.5 kilometres.

Current potential hazards include lava and pyroclastic flows in the southwest and southeast sectors, reaching distances between three and seven kilometres towards several nearby rivers.

"Volcanic material projection in the event of an explosive eruption could reach a radius of three kilometres from the summit," the BPPTKG noted, adding that ongoing magma supply could trigger lava and pyroclastic flows within the hazard zone.

Authorities advise vigilance, citing the Alert Level III status since November 2020, and urge preparedness for disruptions from volcanic ash.

-- BERNAMA

Systematic terror, brutal atrocities rife in Myanmar: UN human rights chief

18 June 2024


The UN’s top human rights official said on Tuesday that Myanmar is in “agonizing pain”, suffocated by an illegitimate military regime which uses “horrific war tactics” and commits brutal atrocity crimes.

Addressing the Geneva-based Human Rights CouncilOpens in new window, Volker Türk, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights emphasized that the crisisOpens in new window there is “emblematic of a decades-long legacy of military domination, the stifling of dissent, and division.”

He added that the same dynamics are playing out against the minority Muslim Rohingya and other communities in Rakhine province.

“We are hearing stories of horrific war tactics, such as beheadings. Midnight drone attacks. The burning of homes as people sleep. People being shot at as they flee for their lives.”

‘Forced conscription’

The situation in the southeast Asian nation has been in freefallOpens in new window since Myanmar’s military – known as the Tatmadaw – overthrew the democratically elected governmentOpens in new window and arrested key political and government leaders in February 2021.

Furthermore, fierce fighting has been reported between junta forces, and ethnic armed groups and those opposed to the coup, forcing thousands to flee their homes and worsening humanitarian crisis across the country.

“The military has lost control over a considerable amount of territory. So, it is resorting to increasingly extreme measures. Forced conscription. Indiscriminate bombardment of towns and villages. Brutal atrocity crimes,” Mr. Türk said.

The UN human rights office (OHCHROpens in new window) is investigating several reported attacks against civilians in Rakhine and Sagaing over recent days with large numbers of civilians allegedly killed.

‘Shocking memories’

Mr. Türk also highlighted the dire situation in Rakhine’s Maungdaw town, with the Arakan Army warning residents, including many Rohingya, to evacuate.

“But Rohingya have no options. There is nowhere to flee,” he said, noting that in Buthidaung, a similar pattern of displacement and destruction has occurred.

The military also ordered ethnic Rakhine villages near provincial capital Sittwe to be vacated, conducting mass arrests. In the village of Byaing Phyu, men were separated, tortured, and killed, with women also raped and murdered.

The military also pressured and threatened young Rohingya men to join their ranks, Mr. Türk added, referring to reports that indicate that thousands of Rohingya youth have been conscripted into the same army that killed and displaced hundreds of thousands of their community in 2016 and 2017.

“These tactics have brought back the shocking images and memories from 2017 of systematic terrorizationOpens in new window, persecution and forced displacement of populations,” the High Commissioner said.

‘A future is possible’

High Commissioner Türk informed the Human Rights Council, the UN’s highest body on human rights, of his visit to southeast Asia and meetings with key stakeholders, notably Myanmar’s civil society and its young people.

“These young people have strong expectations of the international community. They seek for the extent of Myanmar’s suffering to be genuinely acknowledged and given the attention it deserves,” he said.

He highlighted their efforts and those of groups within the country against decades of oppression and violence. New local governance structures have emerged, aiding hundreds of thousands of civilians in need and delivering vital protection services in the complete absence of a functioning public system.

“They have risked their lives and livelihoods to help communities in need and resist the repression by the military. And with them, a future is possible.”

Supporters of Myanmar's jailed leader Suu Kyi mark her 79th birthday with a flower-themed protest

Supporters of Myanmar’s imprisoned ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi have carried out peaceful flower-themed protests marking her 79th birthday

ByGRANT PECK 

Associated Press
June 19, 2024, 


BANGKOK -- Supporters of Myanmar’s imprisoned ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi carried out peaceful flower-themed protests marking her 79th birthday on Wednesday, some taking to the streets in defiance of the military government’s repression.

Suu Kyi, a Nobel peace prize winner who led a decades-long struggle against military rule, was detained on Feb. 1, 2021, when the army seized power from her elected government. She is serving a 27-year prison term on what are widely regarded as charges that were contrived to keep her from political activity.

She is one of more than 20,600 people currently detaine d for opposing military rule, according to the independent Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, which documents arrests.

Pro-democracy street protests in Suu Kyi’s honor were held openly Wednesday in parts of the country not under the control of the army, including in Sagaing and Magway regions in central Myanmar, and Tanintharyi in the south, as well as in Kachin state in the north.

Images on social media showed protesters carrying Suu Kyi’s picture and banners reading “Happy Birthday, Steel Rose” and “The steel roses will retaliate against the junta’s oppression without yielding,” referencing one of their hero’s nicknames and adopting the sobriquet for themselves.

Pro-democracy guerrillas in remote areas not under army control also celebrated her birthday.

Myanmar has been in turmoil since the army’s 2021 takeover, which led to nationwide peaceful protests that escalated into armed resistance and what now amounts to a civil war.

However, nonviolent protests continue to be popular, both online and on the ground. They are often coordinated around themes, such as a flower strike.

One common practice is to post online self-portraits along with symbols of the strike or of Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party, but with faces obscured to prevent identification by the authorities.

In the southern region of Tanintharyi, hundreds of demonstrators in Dawei district displayed Suu Kyi’s famous slogan “The only real prison is fear, and the only real freedom is freedom from fear.”


Min Lwin Oo, a leader of the Democracy Movement Strike Committee (Dawei), told The Associated Press that the quote was supposed to inspire people to have courage and no fear in carrying out revolution against military dictatorship.

Young people held more discreet protests in the big cities of Yangon and Mandalay, where it's not unusual for security forces to use force to break up demonstrations and make arrests.

Eleven Media, a news outlet that maintains good relations with the military government, reported that 22 people in Mandalay were arrested for alleged involvement in the flower strike.

Tayzar San, a prominent leader of the opposition’s General Strike Coordination Body that organized the strike, said that people’s participation proved that even after three years under oppressive military rule, the revolutionary spirit couldn't be quelled.

Kim Aris, Suu Kyi’s younger son living in London, had urged people to celebrate his mother’s birthday by supporting humanitarian aid campaigns.

“Currently, people who love her want to give her flowers and cakes as birthday presents, but she is in a situation where she is not allowed to accept it,” he said in a statement posted on his Facebook page on Tuesday.

Consequently, her admirers should do as much as they can to help with humanitarian aid, he said.

“I think this will be my mother’s most desired birthday present,” Aris said.

The United Nations has estimated that at least 3 million people in Myanmar have been made homeless by conflict in the last three years and are in desperate need of assistance.

Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party, which the military government declared dissolved last year, released a statement on Wednesday on its Facebook page calling for the release of all the detained political prisoners including Suu Kyi.

Several Western embassies posted pictures of roses and jasmine on their social media pages, with some also issuing statements calling for her and all political prisoners to be released.

 

Myanmar’s junta takes desperate measures to stem capital flight

The hard-hit middle class is searching for a place to park what’s left of their assets after three years of war.

A commentary by Zachary Abuza
2024.06.16

 Illustration by Amanda Weisbrod/RFA

The rumors were everywhere: A politically connected crony, U Thein Wai, better known as Serge Pun, was called in for questioning. 

While he was not arrested, the military’s questioning of the CEO of Yoma Bank and eight directors of other subsidiaries under his control is another indicator of just how dire Myanmar’s economic situation is. 

The 71-year old Sino-Burmese tycoon sits atop a massive business empire of some 50 different interrelated companies. The most important of these are First Myanmar Investment Company (FMI), Serge Pun and Associates (SPA), and, of course, Yoma Bank. 

While largely invested in real estate through Yoma Land, SPA is one of the largest conglomerates in the country, with investments in real estate, construction, banking and financial services, Suzuki automobile assembly, the KFC franchise and healthcare. 

Yoma Bank is one of the largest private banks in Myanmar and has been in important overseas conduit, especially after the US government sanctioned two state banks in June 2023.

Yoma Bank has ties to the military, lending to both the military-owned Mytel and Pinnacle Asia, which is owned by Min Aung Hlaing’s daughter, Khin Thiri Thet Mon.

Yoma Bank CEO U Thein Wai, also known as Serge Pun, smiles as electronic trading commences during the opening day of trading at Yangon Stock Exchange, March 25, 2016. (Gemunu Amarasinghe/AP)

In November 2022, the State Administrative Council, as the junta is formally called, bestowed on him the honorific Thiri Pyanchi, granted for outstanding performance. 

Pun’s ties to the military are deep enough that the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation divested their 4.55% equity stake in Yoma Bank in December 2022, selling it to FMI.

This is not to say that Pun has been completely pro-military. Compared to other cronies, he’s been much less so. He’s hedged his bets and incorporated holdings in Singapore and Hong Kong. Arguably he would be a lot wealthier were it not for the coup, but he’s worked within the reality of the coup.

So what prompted the Office of the Chief of Military Security Affairs, the feared military intelligence service, to come calling?

In short, facilitating capital flight. 

Real estate roadshow

In late May, a group of five executives of a real estate firm, Minn Thu Co., held an unauthorized roadshow, selling Bangkok condominiums. Minn Thu had allegedly established unauthorized bank accounts in Thailand to facilitate the sales. 

Thai real estate is being pitched to Burmese as a safe investment at a time when the kyat has fallen to a record low of over 5,000 kyat per dollar, while soaring inflation eats into the currency’s purchasing power. 

Gold has reached record rates: 5.8 million kyat per tical (15.2 grams, .54 oz) – 4.5 times the pre-coup rate of 1.3 million kyat. Over 20 gold dealers have been arrested recently, accused of engaging in speculation. 

The beleaguered middle class is desperately searching for a place to park what’s left of their assets after more than three years of conflict.

Four of the five businessmen who staged the roadshow have been arrested, and one other executive is at large. 

A customer waits to withdraw money at Yoma Bank in Yangon, June 17, 2013. (Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters)

To serve as a deterrent to others, the junta arrested three people who purchased the condos, having illegally transferred assets overseas.

Yoma Bank is believed to have assisted in financing the purchases by  transferring assets to Bangkok in violation of the junta’s currency controls.

Military intelligence officials are also investigating whether Yoma Bank is offering what are de facto mortgages for overseas real estate, as an investment vehicle, in contravention of Myanmar law.

In recent days, the junta has expanded their investigation into over 100,000 private bank transfers.

Capital flight began immediately after the coup. Radio Free Asia reported the purchase of THB2.5 billion (US$69 million) and THB 3.7 billion (US$100 million) in Thai real estate in 2022 and 2023, respectively. 

In the first quarter of 2024, Burmese were the second largest group of foreign nationals to invest in Thai real estate, according to the Bangkok Post, having purchased at least 384 units, worth THB2.2 billion ($60 million).

Estimates, though, are far higher, as many properties are believed to have been purchased using Thai nominees. 

Focus on funds

And of course, the revelation that junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s own children have moved their own assets to Thailand was a huge embarrassment for the regime. Aung Pyae Sone owns a condominium worth around $1 million in Bangkok, while Khin Thiri Thet Mon has two accounts at Siam Commercial Bank. 

Reports are emerging that Khin Sri Thet Mon purchased a condo in the ultra swank SCOPE Langsuan, which was completed in May 2023, and where a three bedroom unit sells for $4.2 million to over $15 million.

The SAC has deployed uniformed personnel to both public and private banks since mid-2021 to block transfers to the civil disobedience movement, the National Unity Government, and ethnic resistance organizations. But soon after that, they also began monitoring capital flight.

The junta is increasingly cracking down on the informal banking sector, known as hundi, that is used by at least 40 percent of overseas workers.

In early June, the regime froze the accounts of 39 additional hundi dealers, following the crackdown on 20 others in January. 

The hundi system keeps desperately needed foreign exchange out of the formal banking system, where people and companies are forced to convert it to kyat at artificially low exchange rates.

Given the state of the economy, capital flight is the rational choice for Burmese with the means..

Myanmar junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing and his wife, Kyu Kyu Hla, visit a Buddhist monastery in Thailand in February 2018. (Myanmar military)

The World Bank has reported on the dire state of the economy, which has shrunk by nearly 20% since the coup. The poverty rate is now 32%, while 2024 GDP growth estimates have been halved to 1%. 

The NUG estimates that the junta has printed 30 trillion kyat (US$11.5 billion) since the coup, a leading – though not the only – cause of inflation, which is now at 30%. The kyat has lost 22% of its value.

Public debt is soaring. Currently at 63% of GDP, compared to 42% under the ousted Aung San Su  Kyi  government, and it is expected to worsen as revenue collection is collapsing. 

A recent report by the Special Advisory Council-Myanmar shows that only one of 51 townships that have border crossings is under stable junta control, with four more under their proxy militias, which has led to a loss of significant amounts of customs duties. 

Pinching trade

More importantly, the junta has restricted the volume of trade that can be transacted in local currencies. The World Bank reported that exports fell by 13% and imports by 20% in the first six months of 2024, but that cross border exports, except for gas, fell by 44%, while imports fell by 71%. 

In early June, the junta announced further restrictions and controls on importers to stop the outflow of hard currency. 

Military losses have forced the Ministry of Oil and Gas Enterprise to abandon two oil fields. Oil and gas production generates some $1.5 billion, half of the regime’s foreign exchange earnings.  

Meanwhile, attempts to increase the number of tourists have largely faltered.

A vendor sells food from her stall during an electricity blackout in Yangon on April 26, 2024. (Sai Aung Main/AFP)

The junta has burnt through its foreign exchange reserves to support its war effort. 

At the time of the coup, those reserves stood at $6.8 billion. Immediately after the coup, the United States government froze $1.1 billion. The NUG estimates reserves to be just over $3 billion, further imperiling any hope of macroeconomic stability.

The dire state of the economy comes as the military needs additional resources to build up their arsenal, induct 5,000 conscripts a month, and recruit demobilized soldiers, in order to resume the offensives in the next dry season. 

Lacking an economy to support a sustained conflict, the junta appears set to match its desperate crackdown on tycoons with drastic steps to dramatically turn the military tide. 

Under the Tatmadaw doctrine, this means intensified targeting of civilians.

Zachary Abuza is a professor at the National War College in Washington and an adjunct at Georgetown University. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of the U.S. Department of Defense, the National War College, Georgetown University or Radio Free Asia.