ALBERTA USA, KENNEY A TRUMP MINI-ME
A spiral out of control': Doctors call for more action from Alberta government as COVID-19 rates spike
The Alberta government isn’t doing enough to curb the spread of COVID-19 as case rates surge across the province, according to some Alberta doctors
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© Shaughn Butts
Dr. Lynora Saxinger, associate professor in the University of Alberta department of medicine, division of infectious diseases, on July 17, 2019.
Alberta reported 919 new infections of the novel coronavirus Saturday , easily setting a new single-day case record for the province. Before Oct. 29, Alberta had never exceeded 600 cases in a single day.
The province announced some new measures Friday, including expanding a limit on social gatherings at 15 people to all regions under COVID-19 watch, as well as making a “strong request” to Calgarians and Edmontonians to stop inviting friends to their homes.
But some doctors say they’re frustrated by what they see as insufficient action in flattening the pandemic and preserving the capacity of Alberta’s health-care system.
“To me, it reads like a spiral out of control,” said Dr. Lynora Saxinger, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Alberta.
“We have this high per cent positivity, we have this high rate of unknown transmission, so we don’t know for sure where it’s coming from. We now have the inability to contact-trace . So it feels like we’re flying blind in a really bad situation.”
On Friday, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney rejected the idea of invoking a lockdown to beat down cases, similar to what the province had enacted during the first wave of the pandemic.
“We’ve seen other jurisdictions implement sweeping lockdowns, indiscriminately violating people’s rights and destroying livelihoods. Nobody wants that to happen here in Alberta,” Kenney said.
Alberta reported 919 new infections of the novel coronavirus Saturday , easily setting a new single-day case record for the province. Before Oct. 29, Alberta had never exceeded 600 cases in a single day.
The province announced some new measures Friday, including expanding a limit on social gatherings at 15 people to all regions under COVID-19 watch, as well as making a “strong request” to Calgarians and Edmontonians to stop inviting friends to their homes.
But some doctors say they’re frustrated by what they see as insufficient action in flattening the pandemic and preserving the capacity of Alberta’s health-care system.
“To me, it reads like a spiral out of control,” said Dr. Lynora Saxinger, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Alberta.
“We have this high per cent positivity, we have this high rate of unknown transmission, so we don’t know for sure where it’s coming from. We now have the inability to contact-trace . So it feels like we’re flying blind in a really bad situation.”
On Friday, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney rejected the idea of invoking a lockdown to beat down cases, similar to what the province had enacted during the first wave of the pandemic.
“We’ve seen other jurisdictions implement sweeping lockdowns, indiscriminately violating people’s rights and destroying livelihoods. Nobody wants that to happen here in Alberta,” Kenney said.
(IRONICALLY HE IS REFERING TO ONTARIO RUN BY HIS OLD CONSERVATIVE PAL DOUG FORD)
But for medical experts including Saxinger and Dr. Shazma Mithani, an Edmonton emergency room doctor, a lockdown is precisely what is being called for — specifically, a short, severe lockdown that can act as a “circuit breaker” and allow transmission rates to drastically decrease.
The strategy has been deployed in some other jurisdictions worldwide, including in Melbourne, Australia, where no cases have been detected for eight consecutive days following a severe, state-ordered lockdown.
“(It’s) like throwing a blanket over the whole, spiralling mess,” Saxinger said.
Dr. Tehseen Ladha, an Edmonton pediatrician, said she wasn’t advocating for a full lockdown like the one imposed earlier this year, but said the longer the province waits to implement more measures, the more likely it will be that a lockdown becomes the only option.
She said Alberta’s doubling rate for new cases is about two weeks, meaning the province could see 2,000 daily cases by the end of November if trends don’t change. To date, four per cent of Albertans diagnosed with COVID-19 have ended up requiring hospital treatment, meaning the spike could result in 80 new hospitalizations each day.
“There’s no way our health system can deal with that many hospitalizations,” Ladha said. “What we’re seeing is an illness that we can prevent, but with the numbers going up at such a high rate, there are going to be an increased number of deaths, and not just in the elderly but in the young, as we’ve seen, and not just in people with comorbidities.”
To date, seven Albertans under the age of 50 have died of COVID-19, including a man in his 20s from Central Alberta .
Mithani said she’s seen first-hand the impacts of recent cases on Alberta’s health-care system.
She said the number of patients she is seeing admitted to hospital with COVID-19 has “drastically increased” in the three weeks, a shift she said could impact care across the board.
“It’s a palpable change that’s happened in the emergency department,” Mithani said. “If we’re already at capacity or over capacity because of COVID, that has an impact on all the other medical and surgical conditions that come in as well. It already feels stressed. We already feel stretched in terms of our capacity.”
In the Alberta Health Services Edmonton zone, 30 per cent of non-essential surgeries have been postponed as the region deals with elevated coronavirus infection rates.
Calgary physician Dr. Raj Bhardwaj said it wasn’t a matter of if Alberta’s health system would become overwhelmed, but when. He worried that patients with and without COVID-19 would suffer as a result.
Bhardwaj said he thinks Albertans are generally trying to “do the right thing” but said bending the curve will need some government intervention. He said messaging could be improved, including by clearly outlining criteria that could result in new measures if reached.
“That sort of thing would go a long way in helping people understand there are consequences for them for doing things like going out to bars or going to restaurants and sitting with people who are not part of the same cohort,” he said.
The current trajectory is causing stress for doctors across Calgary, Bhardwaj said.
“I see myself and I see my colleagues becoming demoralized and frustrated by the lack of leadership that this government showed,” he said.
But for medical experts including Saxinger and Dr. Shazma Mithani, an Edmonton emergency room doctor, a lockdown is precisely what is being called for — specifically, a short, severe lockdown that can act as a “circuit breaker” and allow transmission rates to drastically decrease.
The strategy has been deployed in some other jurisdictions worldwide, including in Melbourne, Australia, where no cases have been detected for eight consecutive days following a severe, state-ordered lockdown.
“(It’s) like throwing a blanket over the whole, spiralling mess,” Saxinger said.
Dr. Tehseen Ladha, an Edmonton pediatrician, said she wasn’t advocating for a full lockdown like the one imposed earlier this year, but said the longer the province waits to implement more measures, the more likely it will be that a lockdown becomes the only option.
She said Alberta’s doubling rate for new cases is about two weeks, meaning the province could see 2,000 daily cases by the end of November if trends don’t change. To date, four per cent of Albertans diagnosed with COVID-19 have ended up requiring hospital treatment, meaning the spike could result in 80 new hospitalizations each day.
“There’s no way our health system can deal with that many hospitalizations,” Ladha said. “What we’re seeing is an illness that we can prevent, but with the numbers going up at such a high rate, there are going to be an increased number of deaths, and not just in the elderly but in the young, as we’ve seen, and not just in people with comorbidities.”
To date, seven Albertans under the age of 50 have died of COVID-19, including a man in his 20s from Central Alberta .
Mithani said she’s seen first-hand the impacts of recent cases on Alberta’s health-care system.
She said the number of patients she is seeing admitted to hospital with COVID-19 has “drastically increased” in the three weeks, a shift she said could impact care across the board.
“It’s a palpable change that’s happened in the emergency department,” Mithani said. “If we’re already at capacity or over capacity because of COVID, that has an impact on all the other medical and surgical conditions that come in as well. It already feels stressed. We already feel stretched in terms of our capacity.”
In the Alberta Health Services Edmonton zone, 30 per cent of non-essential surgeries have been postponed as the region deals with elevated coronavirus infection rates.
Calgary physician Dr. Raj Bhardwaj said it wasn’t a matter of if Alberta’s health system would become overwhelmed, but when. He worried that patients with and without COVID-19 would suffer as a result.
Bhardwaj said he thinks Albertans are generally trying to “do the right thing” but said bending the curve will need some government intervention. He said messaging could be improved, including by clearly outlining criteria that could result in new measures if reached.
“That sort of thing would go a long way in helping people understand there are consequences for them for doing things like going out to bars or going to restaurants and sitting with people who are not part of the same cohort,” he said.
The current trajectory is causing stress for doctors across Calgary, Bhardwaj said.
“I see myself and I see my colleagues becoming demoralized and frustrated by the lack of leadership that this government showed,” he said.
STOP PARTYING IS NOT A CURE
OPINION | Kenney still hoping Albertans will take 'personal responsibility' as COVID case count soars
Graham Thomson
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© CBC Alberta Premier Jason Kenney speaks at a news conference Monday. Kenney said the single biggest thing Albertans can do to stop the spread of COVID-19 is stop having private parties and social gatherings.
Graham Thomson is an award-winning journalist who has covered Alberta politics for more than 30 years. This column is an opinion. For more information about our commentary section, please read our FAQ.
He is our own harbinger of doom.
When Premier Jason Kenney turns up at one of Dr. Deena Hinshaw's regular pandemic updates nowadays, we know we're in trouble.
On Friday, for the first time in many weeks, Kenney shared the podium with Alberta's chief medical officer of health to discuss the rising number of COVID-19 cases in the province.
When the pandemic first hit in the spring, Kenney was a regular at the briefings but his appearances dropped as the crisis dragged on. He popped up now and again during the summer when there was relatively good news to announce such as a program to distribute free masks or plans to reopen the economy or to start the new school year.
But he has studiously avoided taking part in the daily news conferences, unlike other premiers such as Ontario's Doug Ford who is literally front and centre at his province's regular briefings.
So, when Kenney's office announced he would be at Friday's briefing to discuss the province's alarming number of new COVID cases that hit 800 on Wednesday and topped 600 on Thursday, we expected him to announce the kind of lockdown we're seeing in other provinces.
That's not what happened.
After telling Albertans that "we must take this seriously," Kenney made a point of saying he will not follow the lead of other provinces that are enacting restrictions such as closing casinos and ending in-person dining in restaurants and bars.
"We've seen other jurisdictions implement sweeping lockdowns, indiscriminately violating people's rights and destroying livelihoods," said Kenney, in a statement that sounded more like a political speech than a health update. "Nobody wants that to happen here in Alberta."
It's certainly fair to say nobody wants their rights violated and their livelihoods destroyed but nobody wants the pandemic to run out of control and overwhelm our health care system.
Difficult balance
That's where Kenney is walking a peculiarly Albertan tightrope trying to balance his government's laissez-faire philosophy with the need to limit personal freedoms during a pandemic.
It's a wobbly journey, made all the more unstable by Alberta's predicament as arguably the hardest hit province in Canada with the triple whammy of pandemic, recession and an oil price that went negative at one point.
Kenney's mantra since last year's election has been jobs, the economy and pipelines.
However, the province's unemployment rate is the second highest in the country, the economy continues to struggle and the Keystone XL pipeline expansion to the U.S. is in jeopardy after the outcome of the American presidential election.
Kenney is afraid that following the crackdown in other provinces would further weaken Alberta's economy. He's hoping Albertans will do the right thing and take "personal responsibility" to stop the spread of COVID by, among other things, wearing a mask indoors in public settings, practising social distancing and, as of Friday, voluntarily stop holding extended family gatherings at home.
"If we don't take these kinds of simple measures and make these sorts of modest sacrifices to social life, the cases will continue to grow to a point where they may grow out of control and where the only options we have will be far more impactful on people's lives and livelihoods," he said.
Graham Thomson is an award-winning journalist who has covered Alberta politics for more than 30 years. This column is an opinion. For more information about our commentary section, please read our FAQ.
He is our own harbinger of doom.
When Premier Jason Kenney turns up at one of Dr. Deena Hinshaw's regular pandemic updates nowadays, we know we're in trouble.
On Friday, for the first time in many weeks, Kenney shared the podium with Alberta's chief medical officer of health to discuss the rising number of COVID-19 cases in the province.
When the pandemic first hit in the spring, Kenney was a regular at the briefings but his appearances dropped as the crisis dragged on. He popped up now and again during the summer when there was relatively good news to announce such as a program to distribute free masks or plans to reopen the economy or to start the new school year.
But he has studiously avoided taking part in the daily news conferences, unlike other premiers such as Ontario's Doug Ford who is literally front and centre at his province's regular briefings.
So, when Kenney's office announced he would be at Friday's briefing to discuss the province's alarming number of new COVID cases that hit 800 on Wednesday and topped 600 on Thursday, we expected him to announce the kind of lockdown we're seeing in other provinces.
That's not what happened.
After telling Albertans that "we must take this seriously," Kenney made a point of saying he will not follow the lead of other provinces that are enacting restrictions such as closing casinos and ending in-person dining in restaurants and bars.
"We've seen other jurisdictions implement sweeping lockdowns, indiscriminately violating people's rights and destroying livelihoods," said Kenney, in a statement that sounded more like a political speech than a health update. "Nobody wants that to happen here in Alberta."
It's certainly fair to say nobody wants their rights violated and their livelihoods destroyed but nobody wants the pandemic to run out of control and overwhelm our health care system.
Difficult balance
That's where Kenney is walking a peculiarly Albertan tightrope trying to balance his government's laissez-faire philosophy with the need to limit personal freedoms during a pandemic.
It's a wobbly journey, made all the more unstable by Alberta's predicament as arguably the hardest hit province in Canada with the triple whammy of pandemic, recession and an oil price that went negative at one point.
Kenney's mantra since last year's election has been jobs, the economy and pipelines.
However, the province's unemployment rate is the second highest in the country, the economy continues to struggle and the Keystone XL pipeline expansion to the U.S. is in jeopardy after the outcome of the American presidential election.
Kenney is afraid that following the crackdown in other provinces would further weaken Alberta's economy. He's hoping Albertans will do the right thing and take "personal responsibility" to stop the spread of COVID by, among other things, wearing a mask indoors in public settings, practising social distancing and, as of Friday, voluntarily stop holding extended family gatherings at home.
"If we don't take these kinds of simple measures and make these sorts of modest sacrifices to social life, the cases will continue to grow to a point where they may grow out of control and where the only options we have will be far more impactful on people's lives and livelihoods," he said.
COVID confusion
Kenney did announce one new restriction on Friday. He has extended the 15-person limit on public gatherings — that up until now applied to just Calgary and Edmonton — to any community on the province's watchlist. Kenney said some Edmontonians and Calgarians had been circumventing the cities' 15-person rule by driving to the bedroom communities to hold large public gatherings. It would seem some people just can't be trusted to take personal responsibility. Or perhaps they're confused.
Kenney himself might be adding to the confusion by sending out mixed signals.
"Let's put this in perspective," he said on Friday. "While we have to take the COVID threat very seriously, it is currently projected to be the 11th most common cause of death in Alberta this year. To date, we've lost approximately 340 lives sadly to COVID-19. In a typical year 16- to 17,000 people pass away in Alberta. And so currently this represents a tiny proportion of the deaths in our province."
This is the kind of misleading argument you see online from people who dismiss the dangers of COVID-19. COVID has overwhelmed hospitals in other parts of the world and could do so here.
In the past, Kenney has also called the virus "an influenza of this nature." Again, this is the language of those who diminish the hazard of COVID. It is not the flu but a novel coronavirus more contagious and more deadly than the flu. There is no vaccine. And people who are sick enough to end up in hospital but don't die might suffer lifelong health problems.
Kenney is no doubt hoping his appearance at Friday's COVID update will provide something of a verbal slap in the face to Albertans who have become inured to the daily monotony of pandemic updates. Let's hope so.
But it would help if he used his harbinger-of-doom appearances at those updates to impart a clear message about the dangers of COVID without also diluting the warning with apples-to-oranges statistics that only serve to diminish the dangers and confuse people.
He gained a wider audience in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin
