The push to cashless transit fare leaves some riders behind

Reports and Proceedings

PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY

Our multi-year study on automated transit fare collection offers a key finding that won't surprise you: Despite the convenience, the rush toward cashless fare systems has created barriers for lower-income riders seeking to use transit. Results from focus groups, surveys, and a review of current transit agency practices suggest that continuing to accept cash is a crucial way to keep transit accessible. However, dealing with cash has drawbacks: it’s time intensive and expensive. Using a detailed cost-benefit model, the researchers explored the costs for agencies to maintain some cash options and found that some simple approaches can be quite effective. The best bang for the buck? Cash collection on board buses.

Launched in 2019, the research project "Applying an Equity Lens to Automated Payment Solutions for Public Transportation" was supported by a Pooled Fund grant program from the National Institute for Transportation and Communities (NITC) and conducted at three universities: Portland State University (PSU), the University of Oregon (UO), and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK). The other funding partners were City of Eugene, OR, City of Gresham, OR, Lane Transit District, Clevor Consulting Group, and RTD (Regional Transportation District) Denver.

Aaron Golub of PSU served as the principal investigator, with co-investigators Anne Brown of UO, Candace Brakewood of UTK and John MacArthur of PSU.

WHY STUDY CASHLESS TRANSIT FARE?

Automated payment technologies can smooth operations and improve data collection, but the added convenience for the agency and some riders comes at a price: those systems require riders to have access to private internet, smartphones, and banking/credit services. Access that is decidedly not universal. What happens to the riders who are left behind?

Fare payment systems have a long history in significant equity challenges - both in fare amounts, but also in how and where fare can be purchased and stored. The final report “Applying an Equity Lens to Automated Payment Solutions for Public Transportation” (PDF) is a detailed exploration of how transit riders pay for their fare, based on 2,303 intercept surveys and three focus groups with transit riders in Colorado and Oregon. Researchers looked at the use of cash, and focused on riders who may be excluded if cash options are removed as new fare payment systems are implemented in the coming years. The research team also interviewed employees at ten transit agencies to find out how their fare payment has been modernized in the past 5 years, how those agencies have evaluated the equity implications of these changes, and what programs they have deployed to mitigate the equity impacts.

Andrew Martin, Development Planner at Lane Transit District, served on the project's technical advisory committee. "Around the same time as this study, we were in the middle of purchasing and implementing our first electronic fare collection system. We had already decided to take a more customer-centric approach: instead of going completely cash-free, we determined that we were going to take on the costs of making sure our service remained accessible to all riders. It was good to see, in the research, a lot of the things that we were intuitively feeling turned out to be true. The cost-benefit analysis shows that the cost isn't as great as you think; by doing the equity mitigations, you might end up with higher ridership and offset the revenue loss," Martin said.

SOME KEY FINDINGS

Researchers found that a significant number (around 30%) of transit riders still rely heavily on paying cash on-board buses. Older and lower-income respondents had less access to smartphones and internet. 

Of those who do own smartphones, many are concerned about reaching data limits, and some depend solely on public Wi-Fi for internet connectivity. 

A small but significant number of riders (around 7%) have no access to formal banking services.

The researchers worked with transit organizations in three case cities: Eugene, OR (population 247,421); Denver, CO (population 2,374,203); and Portland, OR (population 1,849,898). The cost-benefit model can be used by any size agency to implement new fare payment technology.

"One thing that would be really helpful to a lot of agencies is the cost modeling [the researchers] did. It estimates the general cost to put new technologies out there, like ticket vending machines. A lot of smaller agencies may not have things like that, and they're really useful for customers. So even aside from the equity focus, there is a lot of good info on costs of implementing a system," said Martin.

COST BENEFIT MODEL

Researchers constructed a quantitative cost-benefit model that combines first-year capital investments along with 10 years of maintenance, operations and capital replacement into a single total cost estimate. This approach creates an overall reflection of the lifecycle costs of the fare payment system, meaning it enables us to understand the total cost from both the initial costs, as well as the recurring annual costs.

They then used the model to explore and compare four scenarios along with an additional base (no-cash) case. Scenarios are based on the feedback received from transit agencies and a review of best practices nationally: 

• Base - (No cash accepted anywhere) 
• Scenario 1 - No cash anywhere, adds retail network 
• Scenario 2 - Cash on board, not at TVMs, no retail 
• Scenario 3 - Cash only at TVMs, no retail 
• Scenario 4 - Cash accepted everywhere

"The heart of this cost-benefit model is, how many riders cannot ride under the different scenarios? We were able to study more than 2,000 riders, and, in the fully no-cash base case, we knew that about 8% of riders could not ride, based on our surveys. Their answers to how they would  ride with different configurations of ticket vending machines and cash on board informed this model," Golub said.

SELECTING MITIGATION STRATEGIES

Any of the above scenarios 1-4, above the no-cash baseline, can mitigate some of the equity implications of going cashless. Which scenario is best for a particular setting depends greatly on how many riders are potentially excluded by a cashless fare system, and on which options those riders would most likely use, given the opportunity to pay with cash. Based on the results of the cost-benefit analysis for each of the three case cities, researchers developed some general principles that agencies should keep in mind, when choosing strategies to help keep transit accessible. 

"When you're looking at 10 different systems and you've got to justify to the board, the general manager, the community, why you're spending money a certain way – it's really helpful to have research like this that shows that the costs are not some huge amount. When equity is cheap to obtain, it's really easy to justify doing that," Martin said.

Larger agencies spend less to collect fare. This impacts the cost-benefit calculation of adding additional capabilities. Small agencies, the researchers suggest, should seriously consider going fare-free. The Eugene case study (the smallest agency) shows that, across the board, fare collection consumes a large part of fare revenues - in the full cash scenario, about 40% of revenue is spent on collecting fare. 

Retail is a low-cost option: Accepting cash payments at retail locations is by far the lowest cost option to add cash capabilities in terms of total cost, net costs, and in terms of cost to accommodate potentially excluded riders. It is also the most commonly used mitigation, according to interviews with agencies. However, the retail network still poses significant geographical barriers for many riders, and does not offer the kind of coverage and access that cash collection on-board would offer.

Simple cash collection on buses could be an important bridge: According to the ridership survey data, in addition to being a low-cost option for agencies, this mitigation also added significant ridership. Accepting cash at ticket vending machines was found to be much more expensive than accepting cash on board.

When larger numbers of riders are excluded, equity mitigations are cheaper. The larger number of riders that are excluded, the bigger impact equity mitigations have and the cheaper they are per additional rider, and per additional fare collected. The Portland-Gresham case study showed relatively few riders were excluded when cash was eliminated compared to the other properties. That meant that adding retail cash collection cost $0.27 per new boarding. In Denver and Eugene, larger populations of riders were potentially excluded by cashless fare, and adding retail capabilities only cost 14 and 1.9 cents per boarding, respectively.

"Within the 10-year transition, some of the worst effects could be avoided by using some of these mitigations,” Golub told NextCity in a May 25, 2021 article: What Happens When Cash Fares Are Eliminated?

This research was funded by the National Institute for Transportation and Communities; the City of Eugene, OR, City of Gresham, OR, Lane Transit District, Clevor Consulting Group, and RTD (Regional Transportation District) Denver.

ABOUT THE PROJECT

Applying an Equity Lens to Automated Payment Solutions for Public Transportation

Aaron Golub and John MacArthur, Portland State University; Anne Brown, University of Oregon; Candace Brakewood, University of Tennessee, Knoxville

• Download the Final Report (PDF)
• Download the Project Brief (PDF)
• Read a 2020 blog post by Aaron Golub: The Hidden Costs of Removing the Option to Pay for Transit With Cash?
• Watch the recorded webinar from May 11, 2021
• Download the cost-benefit model (Excel spreadsheet)

RELATED RESEARCH

To learn more about this and other NITC research, sign up for our monthly research newsletter.

• New Mobility For All: Can Targeted Information And Incentives Help Underserved Communities Realize The Potential Of Emerging Mobility Options?
• National Scan of Bike Share Equity Programs
• The Connection between Investments in Bus Stops, Ridership, and ADA Accessibility

The National Institute for Transportation and Communities (NITC) is one of seven U.S. Department of Transportation national university transportation centers. NITC is a program of the Transportation Research and Education Center (TREC) at Portland State University. This PSU-led research partnership also includes the Oregon Institute of Technology, University of Arizona, University of Oregon, University of Texas at Arlington and University of Utah. We pursue our theme — improving mobility of people and goods to build strong communities — through research, education and technology transfer.

 

Scrap the nap: Study shows short naps don’t relieve sleep deprivation

Peer-Reviewed Publication

MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: RESEARCHERS FOUND THAT SHORT NAPS OF 30 OR 60 MINUTES DID NOT SHOW ANY MEASURABLE EFFECTS ON MITIGATING EFFECTS OF SLEEP DEPRIVATION. view more 

CREDIT: CREATIVE COMMONS VIA PXHERE

EAST LANSING, Mich. – A nap during the day won’t restore a sleepless night, says the latest study from Michigan State University’s Sleep and Learning Lab.

“We are interested in understanding cognitive deficits associated with sleep deprivation. In this study, we wanted to know if a short nap during the deprivation period would mitigate these deficits,” said Kimberly Fenn, associate professor of MSU, study author and director of MSU’s Sleep and Learning Lab. “We found that short naps of 30 or 60 minutes did not show any measurable effects.”

The study was published in the journal Sleep and is among the first to measure the effectiveness of shorter naps — which are often all people have time to fit into their busy schedules.

“While short naps didn’t show measurable effects on relieving the effects of sleep deprivation, we found that the amount of slow-wave sleep that participants obtained during the nap was related to reduced impairments associated with sleep deprivation,” Fenn said.

Slow-wave sleep, or SWS, is the deepest and most restorative stage of sleep. It is marked by high amplitude, low frequency brain waves and is the sleep stage when your body is most relaxed; your muscles are at ease, and your heart rate and respiration are at their slowest.

“SWS is the most important stage of sleep,” Fenn said. “When someone goes without sleep for a period of time, even just during the day, they build up a need for sleep; in particular, they build up a need for SWS. When individuals go to sleep each night, they will soon enter into SWS and spend a substantial amount of time in this stage.”

Fenn’s research team – including MSU colleague Erik Altmann, professor of psychology, and Michelle Stepan, a recent MSU alumna currently working at the University of Pittsburgh - recruited 275 college-aged participants for the study.

The participants completed cognitive tasks when arriving at MSU’s Sleep and Learning Lab in the evening and were then randomly assigned to three groups:  The first was sent home to sleep; the second stayed at the lab overnight and had the opportunity to take either a 30 or a 60 minute nap; and the third did not nap at all in the deprivation condition.

The next morning, participants reconvened in the lab to repeat the cognitive tasks, which measured attention and placekeeping, or the ability to complete a series of steps in a specific order without skipping or repeating them — even after being interrupted.

“The group that stayed overnight and took short naps still suffered from the effects of sleep deprivation and made significantly more errors on the tasks than their counterparts who went home and obtained a full night of sleep,” Fenn said. “However, every 10-minute increase in SWS reduced errors after interruptions by about 4%.”

These numbers may seem small but when considering the types of errors that are likely to occur in sleep-deprived operators — like those of surgeons, police officers or truck drivers — a 4% decrease in errors could potentially save lives, Fenn said.

“Individuals who obtained more SWS tended to show reduced errors on both tasks. However, they still showed worse performance than the participants who slept,” she said.

Fenn hopes that the findings underscore the importance of prioritizing sleep and that naps — even if they include SWS — cannot replace a full night of sleep.

(Note for media: Please include the following link to the study in all online media coverage: https://academic.oup.com/sleep/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/sleep/zsab152/6307588)

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Michigan State University has been working to advance the common good in uncommon ways for more than 165 years. One of the top research universities in the world, MSU focuses its vast resources on creating solutions to some of the world’s most pressing challenges, while providing life-changing opportunities to a diverse and inclusive academic community through more than 200 programs of study in 17 degree-granting colleges.

 

For MSU news on the Web, go to MSUToday. Follow MSU News on Twitter at twitter.com/MSUnews

---

JOURNAL

SLEEP

DOI

10.1093/sleep/zsab152

ARTICLE TITLE

Slow-wave sleep during a brief nap is related to reduced cognitive deficits during sleep deprivation

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

22-Jun-2021

Closer encounters: How UFOs became a target for US intelligence again

    

Tourists waiting outside the gift shop near Area 51, a US Air Force facility said to host an alien spacecraft that has become a popular destination for alien enthusiasts.

 © John Locher, AP

Text by: Sébastian SEIBT

A hotly anticipated US government report on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) was released on Friday. After decades of mysterious reported sightings, the Pentagon had too little data to accurately determine the nature of these flying objects. But the fact that the report even exists is a marvel in itself, dating back to events from 1947.

While Doctor Who, The X-Files and ET fuel our imaginations with the possibility of alien life on earth, they remain works of fiction. But the nine-page report on UFOs, released by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Pentagon last Friday, is very much real.

The document discloses 144 observations of what the government calls “unidentified aerial phenomenon” (UAP) dating all the way back to 2004, most of which were reported by US Navy personnel. Mysterious flying objects, described in the report as a “potential threat” to US national security, were said to “probably lack a single explanation”.

Although the nature of these UFOs is still unknown, the document’s publication is a climactic moment in the decades spent analysing sightings. The US military has been tracking, deflecting and debunking observations of UFOs and “flying saucers” since the 1950s.

The truth is still out there

Bizarrely enough, efforts to disclose intelligence on UFOs wouldn’t have been possible without Donald Trump and the Covid-19 pandemic. In December 2020, just before leaving the White House, Trump signed a $2.3 trillion (€1.9tn) coronavirus relief bill into law. The bill included a clause ordering the US Department of Defense to tell Congress everything they knew about UFOs. And they had six months to do so.

The news ignited excitement among alien enthusiasts, eagerly waiting for the report to be released. But to their dismay, there was little evidence to confirm or deny any intergalactic visitations. Possible explanations for UAP included birds, drones, atmospheric phenomena like ice crystals, innovative developments by US government entities and unchartered technologies by adversaries such as Russia or China. However, the report clearly stated a “lack [of] sufficient information” in its dataset “to attribute incidents to specific explanations”.

Only one of the reported sightings was fully accounted for. Classified as airborne clutter, it was identified “with high confidence” as a large, deflating balloon. “The others remain unexplained,” the report said.

There is still hope for enthusiasts, though. In the next three months, the Pentagon will develop a new strategy for collecting and tracking information on potential sightings.

“It is critical that the United States maintain operations security and safety at DoD ranges,” Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks wrote in a memo released on Friday. “To this end, it is equally critical that all US military aircrews or government personnel report whenever aircraft or other devices interfere with military training. This includes the observation and reporting of UAPs.”

UFOs: a bipartisan fascination

But a lack of conclusive evidence is precisely what could fuel more theories of otherworldly visitations, to which the US government is clearly not immune. The surprising decision to publish the report was described by the BBC as “a cultural shift that saw the US military and US political leadership go from extra-terrestrial-sceptic to ET-curious”.

In fact, UFOs have become a rare unifying topic across political lines. “After this last year, it’s kind of nice to see something that’s bipartisan,” Robert Powell, an executive board member of the Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies, told the Washington Post.

On the left, former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton’s chief of staff John Podesta and former Democratic Senate leader Harry M. Reid all expressed an interest in researching unidentified aerial phenomenon. Former President Barack Obama also chimed in, acknowledging in May 2021 that “there’s footage and records of objects in the skies that we don’t know exactly what they are”.

In the search for greater transparency, the top Republican on the Senate intelligence committee Marco Rubio said in May that despite the “stigma on Capitol Hill” resulting in “giggles” from his colleagues, the issue was worth investigating. He was joined by Fox news host Tucker Carlson, who referred to UFOs as a “very big issue”.

From the margins to the centre-stage

Often relegated to fringe, unscientific and even conspiratorial theories reserved for “ufologists”, it’s the first time since the 1950s that the topic has been taken seriously by the US government. After the pilot of a small plane reported seeing several “saucer-like” objects flying near Mount Rainier in Washington state in a 1947 newspaper headline, ordinary citizens followed suit. Sightings of “flying saucers” started exploding in numbers.

In the summer of that same year, theories circulated that an alien spacecraft had crashed near a military site in Roswell, New Mexico. US military officials visited the crash site and said they found remnants of a crashed weather balloon, but their findings weren’t enough to quell what had already become a national sensation.

Because of the Cold War, the US military wasn’t as worried about coming face to face with an alien as it was about discovering a Soviet machine more technically advanced than their own. So in 1953, a CIA advisory panel of experts was formed to officially investigate unidentified flying objects, saying they posed a potential threat to national security.

In a lengthy investigation on the relationship between UFOs and the Pentagon published by the New Yorker magazine in April 2021, journalist Gideon Lewis-Kraus wrote: “The Cold War made it crucial that the US government be perceived to have full control over its airspace.”

What ensued was a vast media campaign in the 1960s, orchestrated by the US government to try to dissuade the population from tracking down “flying saucers”. For a period of about 40 years, the US government was entirely silent on the issue. This never stopped ufologists from pilgrimaging across the “Extraterrestrial Highway” in the Nevada desert to Area 51, a US Air Force facility said to host an alien spacecraft that has become a popular tourist destination.

Later on in 2017, the New York Times published an article about the Pentagon’s mysterious UFO programme and the subject came back into the limelight. The article explained that sightings had frequently come from the US military itself, shattering the myth that the government considered civilian reports to be nonsense spewed by conspiracy theorists.

Since then, US media outlets have been able to access several videos and audio recordings of US Air Force pilots who have come face to face with unidentifiable objects flying at supersonic speeds, their movements hard to replicate.

Playing politics with Blink-182

Months before the report on UAP was ordered by Trump, the US Department of Defense formally released three Navy videos showing unidentified aerial phenomena blurrily moving against dark backdrops. Unintentionally stoking ufologists hopes that extra-terrestrial life exists, the Pentagon’s intention was to “clear up any misconceptions”.

The videos were first released between December 2017 and March 2018 by To The Stars Academy of Arts & Sciences, a private company co-founded by former Blink-182 member Tom DeLonge.

As to the question of why UFOs are coming back into the spotlight now, many speculate it could be tied to tense US-Russia relations. Just like in the beginning of the Cold War, the US once again feels its military and technological superiority is under threat.

David Clarke, an associate professor at Sheffield Hallam University in the UK, told the Washington Post: “My sort of view of this is UFOs are a product of the Cold War.” He said he found it “interesting that UFOs should once again come into public prominence” as they have today.

This article was adapted from the original in French.

German sports giant Adidas to sell Reebok

Adidas had owned Reebok for 15 years but was unable to revive the ailing brand. The German sporting goods behemoth saw its stock surge with the announcement of the sale.



High-profile stars like Victoria Beckham, Cardi B and Ariana Grande tried to help revive the brand

German sportswear firm Adidas said Thursday it will sell the brand Reebok to a US company, in a deal worth €2.1 billion ($2.5 billion).

Authentic Brands Group (ABG) will be Reebok's new owner, after Adidas failed to lift the fortunes of a brand it acquired in 2006.

The large US firm owns a number of brands including fashion retailers JCPenney, Forever21 and Brooks Brothers, as well as the magazine Sports Illustrated.

"Reebok has been a valued part of Adidas, and we are grateful for the contributions the brand and the team behind it have made to our company," Adidas CEO Kasper Rorsted said in a press release.

"With this change in ownership, we believe the Reebok brand will be well-positioned for long-term success," Rorsted said.

A struggling brand

ABG chief Jamie Salter said it was an "honor" to carry Reebok's legacy forward. "We look forward to working closely with the Reebok team to build on the brand's success," Salter said.

Boston-based Reebok was acquired by Adidas 15 years ago for €3.1 billion ($3.8 billion), as the German sports giant sought to take on US rival Nike.

Despite high-profile collaborations with the likes of Victoria Beckham, Cardi B and Ariana Grande in recent years, the brand struggled.

While Adidas said the sale of Reebok would have "no impact" on its financial outlook in the coming year, the company saw its stock price rise 1.6% after announcing the sale.

jcg/rs (Reuters, dpa)

German rail union warns of more possible action as strike bites

A union representing German train drivers has warned of further strike action after a walkout that crippled passenger services.

Passengers were left seeking alternatives as the majority of services were canceled


The German Train Drivers Union (GDL) said it retains the possibility of strike action next week if its demands are not satisfied.

A 48-hour passenger rail strike that started on Wednesday left travelers across Germany scrambling to make alternative arrangements.

Only about 25% of long-distance trains are operating as normal. Some 40% of regional routes are in service.

What is the union saying?

The GDL has said it will only make its decision on possible further strikes next week.

GDL vice-chairman Norbert Quitter said officials first wanted to assess the DB executive board's reaction to the initial strike.

A strike involving rail freight began on Tuesday evening, with the passenger train strike taking effect in the night going into Wednesday morning.

GDL has said it plans to end the strike Friday at 2 a.m. (0000 GMT).

What does management say?

Deutsch Bahn (DB) spokesman Achim Stauss described the strike as "completely excessive" and called on the GDF to desist from industrial action and resume negotiations.

Stauss said both sides are already "relatively close" at the negotiating table, he told national broadcaster ZDF.

"What there is to discuss must be clarified there and not at the expense of the passengers," said Stauss.

Watch video02:27 German floods destroy rails and train stations

What is the strike all about?

The GDL announced the strike after the collapse of wage talks with the DB management.

Union officials said representatives had failed to reach any agreement with DB over pay raises, bonuses, benefits, job security, and retirement for the GDL's 37,000 members.

The GDL is demanding a wage increase of around 3.2% by 2022, as well as the payment of a one-time coronavirus allowance of 600 euros ($700).

10 THINGS GERMANS GENERALLY KNOW ABOUT TRAINS

Did you get that?

There's a loudspeaker announcement while you're waiting for a train, but you barely distinguish a single word? The acoustics of any train station are generally bad, so instead of worrying too much about what you've missed, here's a German idiom for the unexceptional occasion: "Ich verstehe nur Bahnhof" — literally, "I only understand train station" — which means you didn't understand a thing. 12345678910

DB says its position on pay is "quite close" to the union's – conceding to the 3.2% demand but asking for an extra year to pay it out.

The company says that, after losing billions of pounds in revenue amid the coronavirus pandemic, it needs the delay.

Meanwhile, the even larger EVG train drivers union which has already reached an agreement with DB — has said it plans to renegotiate its contract if the GDL gets a better offer.

How Mekong River is turning into a new flashpoint in Indo-Pacific

Experts view the South China Sea as the most probable area of conflict in Asia. Their attention now has also turned to the Mekong River, where the economic and environmental stakes are arguably much higher.

China, one of Laos' closest political allies and trade partners, is a key investor in Mekong River projects

For several years, US politicians have adopted the Japanese slogan of a "free and open Indo-Pacific," calling for international law to apply over disputes in the South China Sea, where China is accused of acting aggressively.

Earlier this month, during the East Asia Summit foreign ministers' meeting, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for "a free and open Mekong."

The latest slogan points to the Mekong River's importance to peace and stability in mainland Southeast Asia, as well as China's alleged ambition to gain geopolitical advantage from riparian disputes.

The Mekong River begins in China's Tibetan Plateau and runs through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand and Cambodia before exiting in Vietnam's delta region. Hundreds of hydropower dams have been built up and down the river since 2010, and most of them are in China and Laos.

Laos, the poorest member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc and a landlocked state without much of a manufacturing sector, has recorded a 7% GDP growth on average for much of the past decade, thanks in large part to exporting hydropower-generated electricity.

Environmental catastrophe overshadowed by political agenda

However, dam-building has resulted in environmental destruction and accusations of forced evictions and land-clearing across the region.

When part of a dam collapsed in southern Laos in 2018, at least 40 people were killed and hundreds of households in the region were affected by flooding.

The Mekong River begins in China's Tibetan Plateau and runs through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand and Cambodia before exiting in Vietnam's delta region

Thailand and Vietnam now also say they are experiencing unusual flooding and droughts because of damming on upstream parts of the Mekong.

Pianporn Deetes, the Thailand and Myanmar campaigns director for International Rivers, a global NGO, argues that an increased American and Chinese interest in Mekong has made the debate "more politicized and polarized."

The concerns of riparian communities, she adds, are "being overshadowed or sidelined by political agenda."

Critics say that China could threaten to intentionally hold back much of the river's water upstream, producing extreme droughts in Thailand and Vietnam, as a way of pressuring Bangkok and Hanoi to accept Beijing's geopolitical aims. In late July, Chinese hackers allegedly stole data on the Mekong River from Cambodia's Foreign Ministry servers.

On the other hand, increased funding from US and China-led initiatives to governments and institutions in the region has "contributed to greater public attention and debate on issues critical to the future of the Mekong River and its people," Deetes told DW.

Can the US and China cooperate?

On August 2, US Secretary of State Blinken co-hosted the second ministerial meeting of the Mekong-US Partnership, created in 2020 to expand the work of a previous forum, the Lower Mekong Initiative. The Beijing-led Lancang-Mekong Cooperation forum was formed in 2016.

"The US emphasis on transparency and inclusivity as part of its Mekong-US Partnership is enabling productive outcomes in the Mekong region and decreasing China's accountability gap in its own backyard," said Brian Eyler, director of the Stimson Center's Southeast Asia program.

There are even claims that despite the conflict, the Mekong River could be one issue on which Beijing and Washington see eye-to-eye. "Environmental conservation of the Mekong is actually a major area of alignment for both the US and China," Cecilia Han Springer, a senior researcher with the Global China Initiative at the Global Development Policy Center, told DW.

Tensions within Southeast Asia

Susanne Schmeier, an associate professor in Water Law and Diplomacy at IHE Delft, identifies two main tensions between China and the Southeast Asian states, and among the Southeast Asian states themselves.

"The data shows that Thailand is the biggest investor in hydropower dams in Laos, building four times as many dams as China," said Eyler

Watch video 03:18 Mekong River threatened by dams and climate change

Thailand is also the biggest importer of electricity generated by Laos' hydropower dams. But there is already an excess of power generated by the dams in Laos, so Vientiane has "a tall order ahead" to find markets for that power, Eyler added. "It would be wise to pause future dam building until this supply-demand problem is worked out."

Deetes said, "As a key financier and buyer of electricity from Mekong mainstream and tributary dams in Laos, Thailand has a key role to play to reduce impacts on the Mekong and its people."

In February 2020, the Thai government ended the China-led Lancang-Mekong Navigation Channel Improvement Project over its possible social and environmental impacts.

In January this year, Thai authorities rejected the new technical report issued by the Chinese developers of the $2 billion (€1.7 billion) Sanakham dam project in Laos, arguing it didn't assess the environmental impact of downstream communities, mostly those in Thailand itself.

"Thailand should be more proactive in addressing the impacts of the Lancang cascade, including working with other Mekong countries, to advocate for the changes in the ways the dams are operated to reduce impacts on the river and communities downstream," said Deetes.

Economic dependence on China

But how much influence other Southeast Asian states have over Laos remains in doubt. The bigger problem is whether Laos, as the so-called battery of Asia, could wean its economy off reliance on hydropower investments and exports.

Unlike its neighbors, Laos doesn't have a large low-cost manufacturing sector. Its exports to the US and the European Union are negligible. The EU imported just €300 million worth of goods from Laos last year, according to European Commission data. Instead, the Lao economy remains heavily dependent on hydropower exports, mining and farming.

Watch video 07:27 Cambodia: Dam threatens Mekong's dolphins

"I do not think Laos is likely to divert from its current strategy as the export of hydropower to neighboring countries provides a reliable and promising source of income," said Schmeier.

Neither, Schmeier adds, does Laos' government have many incentives to diversify its economy. The development of dams provides various opportunities for "additional personal income" for government officials and other actors, she noted.

And China, one of Laos' closest political allies and trade partners, is a key investor in these projects.

Concerns have been expressed that Laos' considerable debt to China puts it at risk of Beijing's alleged "debt-trap diplomacy," which could force it to sell important state assets away to China in lieu of repayments.

In 2020, a Chinese firm effectively took control of Laos' domestic electricity grid.

After cataloguing the 100 largest hydropower projects in the Mekong region, Springer found that most of the hydropower projects in Laos plan to export up to 90% of electricity generated abroad. However, she adds, other renewable sources of energy, such as wind and solar, "can meet much of Laos' electricity demand with similar revenue streams and less capital investment than if the current hydropower pipeline was built."

Dozens detained after Syrian shops attacked in Turkey

Police in Ankara use tear to dispurse a crowd attacking shops believed to be owned by Syrian families STR AFP

Issued on: 12/08/2021 - 
Ankara (AFP)

Turkish police detained dozens of people on Thursday after a mob of angry men smashed up shops and cars believed to belong to Syrian migrants in the capital Ankara.

The unrest broke out late Wednesday in response to a fight between locals and migrants in which one Turkish national was stabbed to death.

Images on social media showed dozens of shouting men breaking through police cordons and then attacking cars and shops believed to be owned by Syrian families.

They smashed windows with stones and crowbars and tore down the metal grill of one store before breaking in and ransacking its shelves.

Images obtained by AFP showed police firing tear gas to dispurse the crowds as the violence raged late into the night.

One showed a young man trying to break into the apartment of a building by dislodging the metal wiring of its ground floor window.

Turkish Red Crescent chief Kerem Kinik tweeted an image of a child with streams of blood running down their face who he said had been hurt in the unrest.

"When did stoning houses at night become part of our tradition?" Kinik asked.

"Many refugees contacted us. They are worried for the safety of their children. They are scared."

The Ankara police said they had detained 76 people who were either suspected of involvement in the violence or of disseminating incendiary social media posts.

A young man trying to break into the apartment of a building by dislodging the metal wiring of its ground floor window STR AFP

The Anadolu state news agency said two "foreign nationals" also have been arrested and charged with homicide over the deadly fight.

- Anti-migrant sentiment -

The unrest in Ankara comes with polls showing anti-migrant sentiments riding high among many Turks.

Turkey has become home to 3.6 million Syrians under a deal it struck with the European Union in 2016 to help avert the continent's migrant crisis.

The sides are currently working on updating the terms.

Ankara has received billions of dollars in exchange for setting up camps in the southeast that are now home to more than four million people.

Turkey's main opposition party last month made waves by vowing to send Syrians "back home" if it came to power in a general election scheduled for 2023.

Angry crowds after unrest in response to a fight between locals and migrants in which one Turkish national was stabbed to death STR AFP

Analysts link some of the resentment to economic instability that accelerated in Turkey with the coronavirus pandemic.

The Teyit fact-checking platform has been debunking numerous negative social media posts about migrants -- many of them Afghan -- this week.

The issue is gaining added attention because of sweeping gains being made by Taliban fighters in Afghanistan, with some fearing a mass exodus from the war-torn country.

Turkey is on one of the main transit routes for Afghans seeking shelter in Europe.

© 2021 AFP

Is Morocco's 'Arab Spring' moment finally here?

After a fiery suicide by a cart driver, hundreds of Moroccans protested against their government. But this is not the first such case and it probably won't be the last.


The coronavirus pandemic has impacted the Moroccan economy and fueled angry protests

Earlier this week, hundreds of Moroccans protested the death of Yassine Lekhmidi, a 25-year-old man in the city of Sidi Bennour.

In July, local police confiscated a food cart Lekhmidi was driving because he wasn't wearing a face mask to protect against COVID-19. Despite paying a fine for the infraction, police refused to return his cart.

Distraught over the loss of an important source of income for his family, Lekhmidi set himself on fire. The young man was hospitalized with third-degree burns on July 28 and died of his injuries on August 6.

Over the past week, hundreds of locals in Sidi Bennour have taken to the streets to demand justice for Lekhmidi and his family. Moroccans elsewhere in the country were cautiously sympathetic to the cause.


"I think the citizens have the right to protest but they should do it legally," Imad, a 27-year-old student from Rabat, told DW.

"There have been a few protests here recently. It's the negative impact of the coronavirus," added Abdullah, a 40-year-old clothing retailer from Salé. "The way I see it, that's normal. People have a right to call for social justice."

Today in Tunisia, street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi is celebrated

Return of the Arab Spring?

The protests in Sidi Bennour have subsided over the past few days. Still, international observers quickly wondered whether Lekhmidi's death might spark wider protests, with many drawing parallels between his self-immolation and that of Mohamed Bouazizi.

A Tunisian street vendor, Bouazizi's 2010 death in similar circumstances is widely believed to have ignited popular revolution against Tunisia's dictatorship in 2011, which in turn inspired the so-called Arab Spring protests.

But in fact, Lekhmidi's death is not the first such case in Morocco to have sparked anti-government protests. Over the past decade, there have actually been several incidents in which injustice after a brush with authorities brought Moroccans to the streets.

That includes 2012, when five unemployed university graduates set themselves on fire outside a Ministry of Education building during anti-government protests in the capital Rabat. One person died in the incident.

In 2017, thousands of Moroccans protested the deaths of two brothers trapped in an abandoned coal mine in the town of Jerada. The unemployed men had been extracting coal from the dangerous mines then selling it to local "coal barons," some of whom held government positions.

The protester's hashtag, Grind Him, became popular on Morrocan social media after fishmonger Mouhcine Fikri's death

Objects of contempt

Possibly the best known — and most gruesome — event occurred in 2016, when police confiscated several tons of swordfish from a fishmonger, Mouhcine Fikri, in the coastal town of Hoceima.

Desperate to get his valuable wares back, Fikri jumped into the back of a garbage truck the fish had been thrown into.

Although local authorities later denied it, a government official reportedly told the operator of the truck to "grind him." Fikri was crushed to death in the back of the vehicle while officials stood by.

In the days that followed, thousands of locals demonstrated for justice for Fikri and his death is thought to have started the local Hirak al-Shaʿbi protest movement in Morocco's marginalized Rif region.

The thing these incidents have in common is "hogra," which is defined as "a feeling of being the object of contempt, structural injustice and humiliation," associated with "state officials who make life unlivable," explains the Arab Studies Institute, a US-based think tank, in an online lexicon defining terms coming out of protest movements in North Africa.

Morocco's King Mohammed VI

Under surveillance

Morocco has an elected parliament and is a constitutional monarchy. But in reality, it is King Mohammed VI, who's been on the throne for over 22 years now, who wields most political and economic power.

In the recent past, the country's authorities have been quick to deal with anti-government protests and strikes. They allow some demonstrations to go ahead but react quickly to serious challenges. For example, in the case of the ill-fated fishmonger, the king promised an investigation. Within days, several alleged perpetrators had been arrested.

But then, in other situations, dissenting voices, investigative journalists and protesters are policed, sometimes harshly. For instance, in late 2017, following outrage over the fishmonger's death, a law was passed that enabled Moroccan authorities to more ruthlessly suppress the Hirak al-Shaʿbi movement.

That is part of the reason related protests remain isolated in Morocco and have failed to grow into any kind of nationwide revolutionary moment according to locals.

"When you have a security system like this, it's really hard to go on the street to protest or make demands," a civil society activist in Rabat — who requested anonymity for fear of retribution — told DW. "Everybody knows somebody working in the security apparatus. It's so widespread and so large. That really discourages people from going out on the streets."

Pandemic pressure

Additionally, the opposition is splintered. "It's always difficult to know when a protest movement will escalate — or go nowhere," said Jacob Mundy, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and associate professor focusing on the Middle East and Maghreb at Colgate University in New York. "The last major wave of protests in Morocco became entangled in separatist ethnic issues in the north of the country, a politics that most Moroccans don't share. If the protests in Morocco become widespread throughout the country, then that could be a sign that something is different this time."

It has been suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic might be making that difference, as the health crisis is putting pressure on what observers describe as Morocco's "benevolent authoritarianism narrative."

In 2018, Morocco had the highest income inequality in North Africa

Lockdowns, a lack of tourism and the resulting impact on the economy has widened pre-existing income inequalities, which, according to a 2018 report by the OECD, were already worse in Morocco than in any other North African nation.

As social pressure has built inside the country, locals say there has also been more suppression of dissenting opinion. They tout recent revelations about the Moroccan government's use of the digital spyware Pegasus to target human rights lawyers and journalists as proof, as well as the arrest of independent journalists often on unrelated and disputed charges.

Morocco on a 'slippery slope from bad to worse'

"The effects of the coronavirus pandemic risk diminishing the monarchy's capacity to subdue the population and limit political dissent … politically, the health crisis has reinforced the regime's authoritarianism," experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace confirmed in a July 2020 commentary.

Moroccans protest against the incarceration of two journalists in 2021

"Even two years ago doing an interview like this would not have been a problem," the Rabat activist concluded, "but now it's much harder to voice demands, no matter who you are."

"A lot of people here work in the informal economy or day-to-day, as laborers," the activist told DW. "The pandemic has shut all that down. So it's harder and harder for people to make a living. For the first time ever, I heard about people going hungry in some of Morocco's bigger cities. And then there also seem to be systematic attempts not to let people speak about it openly. It feels like we are on a slippery slope," the activist concluded, "and going from bad to worse."

Algeria and Tunisia wildfires reinforce IPCC findings on Africa

A damaging heat wave is sweeping across North Africa in the wake of the release of the IPCC findings on climate change. Some experts in Africa say the panel hit the right tone and the onus to act is on the continent too.



The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report outlines the severity of the global climate crisis. According to the UN body, the crisis poses not only a policy problem but a global political challenge.

Some analysts have been quick to question the difference between the latest IPCC assessment and those over three decades. But experts in Africa see a distinct change of tone as what used to be the reality for the continent now becomes a global reality.

Europe and the US are dealing with extreme climatic conditions and this has generated a new degree of urgency, said Oladosu Adenike, a Nigerian climate activist, eco-feminist and the initiator of the Fridays for Future movement in Nigeria.

"With extreme weather everywhere, climate change is now a global reality… in Africa, climate change is no longer a threat but a reality,” she told DW.

"Many are still in denial. Some people tried to criticize the whole thing but now these reports have made it clear and even clearer that it is now a reality in Africa, Europe, Asia and every part of the world."

Watch video02:59 Greece wildfires: Devastation on Evia island

No time

Dickens Kamugisha, the CEO of the Africa Institute for Energy Governance (AFIEGO) says the latest IPCC report has a sense of urgency.

"This report is unique in the way it is presented because it clearly shows that we no longer have any time to wait before we change. It is showing that each and every one must commit if we are to save this world," Kamugisha told DW.

"So, if you compare this report with previous reports, in a way this report is very precise that we are now almost beyond the limit.”

Previous IPCC reports had clearly articulated the dangers of climate change, with the commitments to act set for some time in the future.

Watch video02:05 IPCC report: Climate crisis 'code red' for humanity

Do more

The argument has been that developing countries contribute very little to climate change and environmental degradation and the onus should therefore be on the West to take decisive action. Experts are now increasingly challenging that perspective and arguing that Africa needs to act because the continent is feeling climate change the most.

"We have got to redouble our own efforts to build resilience, to invest in inclusive, resilient cities," said Wanjira Mathai, the vice-president and regional director for Africa at the World Resource Institute.

"And that's really important even as we put pressure on developed countries and some of the big emitters in the globe that have been responsible in many ways for this sort of doomsday scenario we are facing."

That would mean that African countries take the intiative and lead with practical solutions. Are African leaders ready to take action?

"We can take that lead if we really want to. If Africa can take the lead, I assure you that other countries will be serious. They will know that we are ready for business but not business as usual,” Oladosu Adenike, the Nigerian eco-feminist explained.

The AFIEGO CEO Dickens Kamugisha has a similiar view and said he believes the time is past for African nations to be making excuses.

"It is very true that Africa contributes about 3% of the greenhouse gases that are causing climate change. I think we should not use it as an excuse that we are contributing little and end up destroying the forests, wetlands and all the nature that is supposed to help us at least reduce the gases that are going to the sky," Kamugisha told DW.

Watch video03:43 Time for action on Africa's Great Green Wall

Pay up

A report by the NGO Oxfam states that many recent climate commitments from companies have not been backed by detailed plans and are likely going to rely on land-based carbon offset efforts. Some experts have warned that this would create the conditions for land grabs.

Furthermore, pledges from oil and gas companies such as BP, Eni, Shell, and Total Energies would require large-scale foresting to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

"Why do we have to wait for 2030 or 2050 before we can act or get to climate neutrality? Not listening or not taking action is a crime against humanity,” Adenike said.

The argument that African nations need to do more in no way suggests that the biggest contributors to climate change should be absolved of responsibility, say experts.

Wanjira Mathai of the World Resource Institute is of the view that more needs to be done to ensure that those who have either caused or benefited from the climate crisis, pay more.

"We absolutely have to put pressure on those countries and those economies that have benefited from this emission with heavy industrialization to pay up and to support with the commitments that were made in the Paris Agreement. There was a very clear commitment to $100 billion a year and we are 10 years in, and that money has not been seen at that scale," Mathai said. "We've got to get serious about climate finance."

Wanjira Mathai also chairs of the Wangari Maathai Foundation and previously chaired the Green Belt Movement in Kenya.

Act now

The overriding sentiment among experts is that African countries need to start taking concrete action on climate change and environmental degradation, according to Mathai.

"In Nairobi today, we have developments that are going on that are really concerning. We have entire walkways being ploughed of the trees that exist, trees that have been standing there for four decades. And instead of us thinking through how we are going to plan around them, plan for pedestrian walkways that are inclusive of green vegetation, we are cutting them down. That has got to change,” Mathai told DW.

This position is supported by others who say the latest IPCC assessment is a call for everyone including Africans to take action.

"The report clearly calls upon everyone in the world including developed countries to ensure that they stop the challenges of climate change," says Dickens Kamugisha.

"Here in Uganda, you have really huge projects of oil –1,400 metres of pipeline. And the project will be producing around 102 million metric tons of carbon. We've seen in Nigeria, Chad, Angola, companies just continue the projects – however risky they are – and the unfortunate thing is that these projects do not benefit those communities.”

A new project will see oill from Uganda pumped to Tanzania after the first extraction planned for 2025

The urgency of the climate crisis for Africa and the rest of the world is not only because of the effects on weather patterns, according to IPPC and Africa's experts agree.

"They have been seeing how it's fueling refugee crises, migration, insecurity and other kinds of crises,” Oladosu Adenike explained.

In 2007, the UN attributed the Darfur conflict in Sudan to climate change. Some two years later, the then US president Barack Obama highlighted that "there is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing, we will face more drought, more famine, more mass displacement – all of which will fuel more conflict for decades."

What is the future for fossil fuel investments?

With the IPCC's latest report warning that time is running out to avoid climate catastrophe, the world's reliance on fossil fuels is increasingly untenable. Investors are starting to look for green alternatives.

The latest IPCC report presented 'undisputed' evidence that carbon pollution is causing profound changes to our climate


Fossil fuels have built the world as we know it today, powering our global economy and generating most of the world's electricity. But over the last 170 years, humans have burned through so much oil, gas and coal that the earth's average temperature is now warmer than at any point in the past 125,000 years.

And we're already suffering the consequences, according to the latest assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The long-awaited report starkly presented "undisputed" evidence that carbon pollution and greenhouse gases from human activity are causing profound changes to our world: more extreme heat waves and fires, increased rainfall and floods, longer droughts and a shrinking Arctic.

Watch video 02:05 Climate crisis 'code red' for humanity

Energy systems need to adapt

The IPCC report didn't directly mention fossil fuels, but that hasn't stopped other leading organizations from calling them out. Earlier this year, G7 leaders agreed to start phasing out fossil fuel financing overseas and end support for unabated coal power. And in May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a landmark report that called for a complete stop on new investments in oil, gas and coal supply after this year — despite the growing number of countries making net-zero emissions pledges for the coming decades.

"This gap between rhetoric and action needs to close if we are to have a fighting chance of reaching net zero by 2050," said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director. "Doing so requires nothing short of a total transformation of the energy systems that underpin our economies."

Part of that transformation will come from investors seeking to protect the future value of their assets. Sarah Brown, an electricity transition analyst at UK-based energy think tank Ember, told DW that investors and insurers are increasingly facing risk — from extreme weather events, the energy transition or changing regulations.

"The recent findings of the IEA and IPCC reports should not have come as a surprise, and there are multiple existing national policies and global commitments that mean investment in new fossil fuel assets does not make economic sense and has not for quite some time," she said.

Brown highlighted several planned coal power plant projects across Europe which have been canceled just in the last few months, including in Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Turkey. "Utilities, financial institutions, engineering companies and governments are all seeing there is no future for coal-fired electricity generation," she said.
'Fossil fuels aren't going to disappear overnight'

But Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the US research group Brookings Institution, doesn't think investors will be so quick to drop fossil fuels. She pointed out that despite advances in renewable energy, the world still hasn't found a reliable substitute for oil and natural gas, which she has called the "lifeblood of the modern economy."

"We're definitely seeing pressure from a lot of different camps to move away from fossil fuel investments," she told DW. "And I don't disagree with the sentiment. The challenge will be that fossil fuels aren't going to disappear overnight."

Gross said oil and gas have more energy per weight than other fuel sources, making them crucial for industrial processes that need very high heat, or for sectors like aviation, shipping and long-haul trucking, where electric vehicles aren't yet up to the task. Not to mention the fact that more than three-quarters of the world's electricity is still produced by fossil fuels, according to the latest analysis by oil giant BP.

"You're not going to see a sudden halt in all investments in fossil fuels. But I think what you'll see is that more expensive and more risky investments will start to go away first. And I think that process is certainly beginning," said Gross.

She believes the industry is nearing a "tipping point" on carbon-intensive processes like oil sands development or fracking, with some investors now shifting instead to inexpensive renewables with good rates of return.

"[This is] something that investors are doing because there's money to be made in it. That's how things really get done. Seems a little crass, but it's true," she said.
Climate changes at Exxon, Chevron

While the trend to make greener investments has been more visible in Europe, with retirement funds in countries like the UK, Sweden and Norway taking steps to limit climate-related exposure, there's been some movement in the US as well — and not just with pensions.

On May 26, 61% of Chevron shareholders backed a proposal asking the oil company to cut its total greenhouse gas emissions. That same day, small activist hedge fund Engine No. 1 took three seats on the board of Exxon Mobil after a monthslong campaign that stressed the oil giant's fossil fuel focus represented an "existential risk."


In May, a Dutch court ordered Shell to reduce its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2019 levels

Speaking with investors in July, CEO Darren Woods said Exxon Mobil was aiming to play "a key role in the energy transition while continuing to grow shareholder value," highlighting developing markets for carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and biofuels. However, Woods — who had campaigned against Engine No. 1 — warned they shouldn't expect "huge shifts in strategy."

Nevertheless, said Gross, "it's quite stunning what they were able to do," underlining the significance that it was the investors who had pushed for change, rather than external pressure. "Nothing against NGOs, but when the investors start talking, they listen."

Fight to stay relevant

But some companies are still fighting to delay the inevitable fossil fuel phaseout and profit losses. German utilities RWE and Uniper, for example, announced in April their intention to sue the Dutch government over its plan to end coal-fired power generation by 2030, citing billions in damages.

Fossil fuel messaging is also playing its part. InfluenceMap, a think tank which studies how corporate lobbying impacts climate policy, revealed in 2019 that the five largest publicly traded oil and gas companies — Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, BP and Total — have spent more than $1 billion (€853 million) to campaign against climate policies or buy misleading ads since the 2015 Paris Agreement. The aim is to promote oil and gas as part of the solution to the climate crisis, along with new technologies, to keep them in the energy mix as long as possible.

"Many big energy companies look to be very focused on transition pathways that only modestly adapt their current business models, relying heavily on carbon capture and storage [CCS] to mitigate their emissions or produce blue hydrogen from natural gas," said Brown, adding that these approaches also have significant climate and financial risks.

Watch video 08:07 Can carbon capture actually work? 

IF YOU HAVE TO ASK  YOU KNOW THE ANWSER IS NO 

While acknowledging the potential for greenwashing, Gross said companies using these transitional technologies could potentially have skills that would help further develop renewable energy like geothermal power or offshore wind farms.

"Certainly, some companies understand that this is the way the future is going. They want to continue to be relevant in the energy industry, and so they're focusing on how they can be relevant in an industry that has a different shape than the one we have now," said Gross. "They understand which way the wind is blowing and are trying to move accordingly."

IN PICTURES: DEADLY EXTREME WEATHER SHOCKS THE WORLD

Fierce flash floods in Europe

Unprecedented flooding — caused by two months' worth of rainfall in two days — has resulted in devastating damage in western Europe, leaving at least 209 people dead in Germany and Belgium. Narrow valley streams swelled into raging floods in the space of hours, wiping out centuries-old communities. Rebuilding the ruined homes, businesses and infrastructure is expected to cost billions of euros.

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