Canada tops two million COVID-19 cases; concerns raised about lack of Alberta data over holidays

'It's a sad state of affairs when we have to get COVID data from the black market'


Michael Rodriguez
Publishing date:Dec 27, 2021 •

The drive-thru COVID testing clinic at the Richmond Road Diagnostic and Treatment Centre in Calgary was busy on Monday, Dec. 20, 2021.

 PHOTO BY DARREN MAKOWICHUK/POSTMEDIA

Canada has officially logged more than two million reported cases of COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic as health-care workers brace for a possible post-holiday spike driven by the fast-spreading Omicron variant.

The government of Canada’s health website says the total case count was 2,000,976 as of Boxing Day. The website wasn’t updated over the holiday period.

As high as the official figures are, health-care analysts have said the real number of infections is likely far higher. Several provinces have asked people to get tested only if they have symptoms as hospitals and centres have reached their testing limits. Alberta has suggested most people should be using rapid antigen tests instead of booking an appointment for a PCR test to conserve supply for high-risk individuals.

While Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba each reported thousands of new cases on Monday, Alberta hasn’t released COVID-19 data since Dec. 23, which has some doctors and politicians crying foul.

“There are rumours floating of more than 6,000 COVID cases over the past four days,” Alberta Opposition Leader Rachel Notley tweeted on Monday.

“We need to know that these figures are right and then we need a plan to get through this. Time for real leadership today. We can’t afford to wait any longer.”

The talk is stemming from a Twitter account called BedHuntersAB , which has posted case numbers via data it received from what it only refers to as a “verified source” every day since Dec. 23. The account has reported 6,718 cases of the virus over the four days. On Monday, it stated 324 people are hospitalized with the virus, of whom 54 are in ICU.

“It’s a sad state of affairs when we have to get COVID data from the black market,” tweeted emergency physician Dr. Chuck Wurster on Sunday.

“It’s even worse that these figures are certainly a huge underestimation of actual cases, as our government has told Albertans to use unobtainable rapid tests instead of PCR swabs.”

Some are saying that those “whisper numbers” will likely be in line with the official ones set to be revealed on Tuesday by Alberta’s chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw.

“I trust the numbers that they’re getting,” said Calgary-based emergency physician Dr. Joe Vipond.

“Reality-wise, if you have symptoms of COVID, you probably have COVID now.”

Vipond said the numbers are a mixed bag. He said it’s good news that hospitalizations and ICU patients aren’t going up, but the case counts are “a disaster.”

The latest available official data from the province, released Dec. 23, showed 8,359 active cases of COVID-19 in Alberta. Of those, 318 were hospitalized, 64 of whom were in intensive care. Of almost 12,000 tests completed on Dec. 22, 1,625 were positive, for a positivity rate of 13.6 per cent.

The uptick in cases noted across the country has renewed concern over beleaguered health-care systems’ ability to handle an influx of sick patients.

Linda Silas, head of the Canadian Federation of Nurses Unions, said the “big bump” is usually seen two weeks after exposure to the virus, and expressed worries that holiday gatherings could lead to hospitals becoming overwhelmed with new cases.

“We are all bracing for that with fear, and with our fingers and toes crossed,” she said in an interview Monday.

Two live updates from Alberta health and government officials are scheduled for this week, on Tuesday and Thursday, but new case data won’t be posted online until Dec. 29. Regular reporting will resume on Jan. 4.

— With files from The Canadian Press

There's no place for a Palestinian consulate in Jerusalem, Bennett says

"Jerusalem is the capital of one state, the State of Israel – period," the prime minister stressed.

By TOVAH LAZAROFF
Published: DECEMBER 28, 2021

A man places a Palestinian flag on a fence surrounding the U.S. consulate during a rally in support of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' bid for statehood recognition in the United Nations, in Arab East Jerusalem September 21, 2011

(photo credit: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun)

Israel is opposed to the re-opening of the United States' consulate for Palestinians in Jerusalem, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told the Knesset on Monday night.

"The government under my leadership has repeatedly clarified its position that there is no place for a Palestinian consulate in Jerusalem," Bennett said.

"Jerusalem is the capital of one state, the State of Israel – period," he emphasized.

At issue is a Biden administration promise that it would reopen America's former Jerusalem Consulate-General that had serviced the Palestinian Authority and was considered to be a de-facto embassy for the Palestinians

.

PRIME MINISTER Naftali Bennett holds a press conference about the Omicron variant last week in Jerusalem. (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)

Former US President Donald Trump closed the consulate in 2019. Close to a year into his presidency, however, President Joe Biden has yet to make good on the reopening pledge, which would require Israel's consent.

Israel has opposed the move, which it believes gives the PA a foothold in Jerusalem and authenticates its claim that east Jerusalem is the future capital of a Palestinian state.

On Monday, MK Nir Barkat, Jerusalem's previous mayor, issued a scathing speech against Bennett in the Knesset on the issue of a Palestinian consulate in the capital.

"I want to announce here, from the Knesset podium, that Jerusalem is still in danger," Barkat said.

He charged that Israel, under Bennett's leadership, had promised the Biden administration it could re-open the US Consulate-General in Jerusalem, but then reneged on that pledge.

"In a recent conversation with a number of Congressional members, I was explicitly told that Tom Nides, the incoming ambassador of the United States, had told them, and I quote: Israel gave its consent to the opening of the Palestinian consulate, and then retracted it," Barkat said.

Israel asked the Biden administration to wait to re-open the consulate until after the budget was approved in November so as not to destabilize the government, Barkat said.

On that basis the Biden administration publicly announced, including in the media, that it would open the consulate, he said, adding that it "instructed Ambassador Nides to prepare for it" and that funding for it was included in a congressional budget.

Barkat then claimed that he personally worked with Congress and non-governmental groups to thwart the opening of the Consulate-General.

There were "36 senators who submitted a bill" against it and 200 congressional members who sent a special letter to Biden to ask that he shelve plans for the consulate, the former mayor said.

"How did you dare to make the Americans think they could divide Jerusalem?" he challenged Bennett, charging that it was a mistake that created "a serious diplomatic crisis with the US."

Now that the Biden administration believes the government could approve a Palestinian consulate in Jerusalem, it will continue to pressure Israel to make that concession, Barkat said.

The Biden administration "will continue to test the strength of our commitment here in Jerusalem and make tempting suggestions," he said.

Bennett dismissed the allegations with respect to Jerusalem as a campaign ploy, to strengthen Barkat's credentials for Likud leadership and replace former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Bennett said he wished both men luck and that normally, "I would have no special opinion on the internal struggles within the Likud."

Barkat, he said, had clearly been advised by a political consultant to go to Washington and generate attention on a large issue such as the consulate.

The prime minister said that the aspiring Likud leader had chosen to turn the Jerusalem consulate into a campaign that is "simply not good for Israel" to do so.

"We do not want to harm Israel," Bennett said, but that otherwise he was determined "to take the issue off the table," a move that was best done quietly.

Israeli forces raze two-story house south of Hebron

Israel demolishes Palestinian houses and structures almost on a daily basis as a means to achieve “demographic control” of the occupied territories.

HEBRON, Tuesday, December 28, 2021 (WAFA) - Israeli forces today razed a Palestinian house in Sendas locality, south of the West Bank city of Hebron, according to eyewitness.

They told WAFA correspondent that a sizable military unit escorted a bulldozer into the area, where the heavy machinery demolished a 150-square-meter two-story house belonging to Mohammad al-Atrash.

The demolished house is located adjacent to the settler-only bypass Road No. 60.

Israel demolishes Palestinian houses and structures almost on a daily basis as a means to achieve “demographic control” of the occupied territories.

Israel denies planning permits for Palestinians to build on their own land or to extend existing houses to accommodate natural growth, particularly in Jerusalem and Area C, which constitutes 60 percent of the occupied West Bank and falls under full Israeli military rule, forcing residents to build without obtaining rarely-granted permits to provide shelters for their families.

In contrast, Israel argues that building within existing colonial settlements is necessary to accommodate the “natural growth” of settlers. Therefore, it much more easily gives the over 700,000 settlers there building permits and provides them with roads, electricity, water and sewage systems that remain inaccessible to many neighboring Palestinians.

K.F.

Six Palestinians injured in Israeli raid in West Bank

3 Palestinians detained during raid

 December 28, 2021

File photo

Six Palestinians were injured and three others arrested in an Israeli raid in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday, according to local residents.

Clashes erupted when Israeli forces raided Tubas city in the northern West Bank to detain three Palestinians, the residents said.

Israeli forces used tear gas canisters, rubber-coated bullets and live ammunition to disperse angry Palestinians.

One of the injuries was in critical condition, medical sources at the government-run Turkish Hospital in Tubas city.

The Israeli army frequently carries out wide-ranging arrest campaigns across the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem on the pretext of searching for “wanted” Palestinians.

Writing by Ahmed Asmar in Ankara

Afghan women protest against Taliban killings of ex-soldiers

By AFP
Published December 28, 2021

Afghan women hold placards during a protest in Kabul to demand an end

 to the extrajudicial killings by the Taliban - 

Copyright AFP Mohd RASFAN

A crowd of women marched through the Afghan capital on Tuesday, accusing Taliban authorities of covertly killing soldiers who served the former US-backed regime.

Around 30 women gathered near a mosque in the centre of Kabul and marched a few hundred metres chanting “justice, justice” before they were stopped by Taliban forces, an AFP correspondent saw.

The Taliban also tried to prevent journalists from covering the march, organised against the “mysterious murders of young people, particularly the country’s former soldiers”, according to social media invitations.

Taliban fighters briefly detained a group of reporters and confiscated equipment from some photographers, deleting images from their cameras before returning them.

Since the hardliners returned to power in August they have effectively banned unsanctioned protests and frequently intervene to block demonstrations against their austere brand of Islam.

The protest comes weeks after separate reports by the United Nations, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch said there were credible allegations of more than 100 extrajudicial killings by the Taliban since their takeover.

“I want to tell the world, tell the Taliban to stop killing. We want freedom, we want justice, we want human rights,” said protester Nayera Koahistani.

In a statement read aloud by protester Laila Basam, the demonstrators called on the Taliban “to stop its criminal machine”.

The statement said former soldiers and government employees of the old regime are “under direct threat”, violating a general amnesty announced by the Taliban in August.

The protesters also aired objections to the ratcheting restrictions women are facing under Taliban rule.

The government issued new guidelines at the weekend banning women from travelling long distances unless escorted by a close male relative.

“Women’s rights are human rights. We must defend our rights,” said Koahistani.

Video footage posted online on Tuesday showed another women’s protest held elsewhere in the capital that also called for women to be allowed education and work opportunities.

Read more: https://www.digitaljournal.com/world/afghan-women-protest-against-taliban-killings-of-ex-soldiers/article#ixzz7GOyU3l2G

© JURIST

Afghanistan dispatches: Taliban shoots and kills young civilian prompting protests in Panjshir province

JURIST Staff

DECEMBER 27, 2021 

Law students and lawyers in Afghanistan are filing reports with JURIST on the situation there after the Taliban takeover. Here, a Staff Correspondent for JURIST in Kabul reports on the shooting death of a young civilian by Taliban forces and the protests, marked by anti-Taliban chants, that followed. For privacy and security reasons, we are withholding his name. The text has only been lightly edited to respect the author’s voice.

Residents of the Panjshir province in Afghanistan took to the streets Sunday after a young civilian was shot to death by Taliban forces. A number of women participated in the protests as they continued on to Monday. The protestors and the family of the deceased young man have urged the Taliban to find the perpetrators and bring them to justice.

The young man’s mother stated in a video that her son was a civilian with no ties to the former government’s military. Another video posted on social media showed a group of women protesting alongside the men, one of whom was giving a speech to a gathering of the other women. In her speech, the woman said that although the Taliban announced a general amnesty, no one in Panjshir or any other province was safe from Taliban.

There have been several reports in the last five months of the Taliban arresting and killing young men. Additionally, several reports regarding illegal searches, arrests and other killings by the Taliban have surfaced from UN agencies, Human Rights Watch, and the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission. The Taliban is yet to provide a convincing response to the allegations in these reports.

As to this specific killing in Panjshir province, the Taliban stated that an investigation has been launched, but I am skeptical that these words will lead us anywhere. The Taliban has made a lot of similar commitments in the past but they are yet to take any action against their own.

 

UN rights expert calls for investigation of civilian killings in Myanmar

Amala Govindarajan | School of Law Christ U., IN

DECEMBER 27, 2021 

The UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths issued a statement Sunday calling Myanmar authorities to investigate a reported attack against civilians in the state of Kayah on Friday.

Griffiths confirmed that the reports of the killings of at least 35 civilians, including at least one child, were credible. The victims were allegedly forced from their vehicles, killed, and then burned. Two humanitarian workers from Save the Children were also caught up in the incident while returning from a nearby community and remain missing.

Myanmar is presently under the control of the military junta, which overthrew the democratically elected government of former leader Aung San Suu Kyi by a coup d’état in February 2021. Human Rights Watch claims that the military and police authorities in Myanmar have killed over 1,300 people and detained 10,000 more since the coup.

Griffiths condemned the incident and all other attacks on civilians in the country, “which are prohibited under international humanitarian law.” He asked the authorities in Myanmar to immediately commence a thorough and transparent investigation into the incident and take all measures to protect civilians.

Myanmar state media reported that the Myanmar army had shot and killed an unspecified number of “terrorists with weapons” who were in vehicles and had not stopped for the military. State media did not mention anything about civilian deaths.

Both the UN and Save the Children have expressed their commitment to continue providing help in the country.

 

Environmentalists warn over oil and gas ‘consultation’

by Agency Reporter | Dec 28, 2021 | Briefing

THE UK GOVERNMENT has announced a new consultation on its ‘Climate Compatibility Checkpoint’ which will assess the impact of future offshore oil and gas developments on the climate crisis.

Friends of the Earth warns the new mechanism is unfit for purpose, because it will fail to stop new climate-wrecking projects being approved.

Under the plans launched on 20 December 2021, only new licensing rounds for offshore oil and gas will be assessed using the checkpoint. However, projects that have so far been licensed but not yet approved for development will not be considered. This goes against the checkpoint’s aim of ensuring the UK complies with global efforts to curb climate breakdown.

In October, Friends of the Earth revealed that 30 licensed offshore projects were expected to receive a decision on development consent before 2025. Collectively, these developments are projected to emit around a billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent if given the green light. However, as part of the new process outlined by the government today, they do not qualify for assessment. This is in spite of the overwhelming scientific evidence that no new oil and gas developments can be approved if global heating is to be limited to 1.5 degrees.

Reacting to the announcement, Danny Gross, climate campaigner at Friends of the Earth, said: “The idea that a new oil or gas project can ever be ‘climate compatible’ is pure fantasy. Scientists have told us repeatedly that approving new developments is inconsistent with limiting global heating to 1.5. Yet our leaders continue to say one thing and do another, with puffed-up announcements that offer little on close inspection.

“If this new checkpoint leaves the door open to future oil and gas licenses, the UK will fall catastrophically behind on climate and importantly, phasing out fossil fuels. Considering the government holds the COP presidency until late next year, the coming months are ripe with opportunity for the UK to set a good example. This approach is half-baked and undermines the UK’s climate credibility.”

By introducing the new checkpoint, the UK remains ineligible to join a new coalition called the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) as a full member. Launched at last month’s climate talks, the coalition includes Ireland and Wales as members. To join as a full member, the UK would be required to make a commitment to end all new licensing rounds, as well as phase out oil and gas production in line with the Paris Agreement.

The government is also consulting on whether to include a test to assess the ‘end-use’ emissions caused by potential new sites. ‘End-use’ refers to the emissions created when the oil and gas is burned. It is vital that the government includes this test as part of the checkpoint.

The consultation on the Climate Compatibility Checkpoint is scheduled to last until 28 February 2022.

* Read and respond to the Consultation here.

* Source: Friends of the Earth

 

International community must hold Israel to account for occupation

by Agency Reporter | Dec 27, 2021 | Briefing

THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY must hold Israel to account for its 54-year occupation of Palestine, a UN human rights expert said on 23 December 2021, five years after the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for an end to all settlement activities in Palestinian territories.

“On the fifth anniversary of the adoption of Resolution 2334 by the United Nations Security Council, the international community has to take its own words and its own laws seriously,” said Michael Lynk, the UN Special Rapporteur for the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967.

“Without decisive international intervention to impose accountability upon an unaccountable occupation, there is no hope that the Palestinian right to self-determination and an end to the conflict will be realized anytime in the foreseeable future”, Lynk said.

Resolution 2334, adopted by the Security Council on 23 December 2016, stated that Israeli settlements constitute “a flagrant violation under international law” and said that all settlement activities in the occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem, must “immediately and completely cease.”

The resolution said the expansion of settlements threatens the viability of a two-State solution and international law must govern the occupation and the relations between Israel and the Palestinians. It also called on States to distinguish between the territory of the State of Israel and the territories Israel has occupied since 1967.

“If this resolution had been actually enforced by the international community, and obeyed by Israel, we would most likely be on the verge of a just and lasting peace”, the Special Rapporteur said. “Instead, Israel is in defiance of the resolution, its occupation is more entrenched than ever, the violence it employs against the Palestinians to sustain the occupation is rising, and the international community has no strategy to end the world’s longest military occupation.”

The Special Rapporteur noted that “in the 20 reports delivered to the Security Council since the Resolution was adopted, the Secretary-General or his representative have stated on each occasion that Israel has not complied with any of the directions of the Security Council,” Lynk said. “Is it not clear by now that the Israeli political leadership has no interest, and no incentive, to end the occupation?”

“One statistic above all illustrates the remarkable unwillingness of the international community to enforce its own directions respecting the Israeli occupation”, the UN expert said. “In 2016, when Resolution 2334 was adopted, there were an estimated 400,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank and 218,000 in East Jerusalem. Five years later, there are 475,000 settlers in the West Bank and 230,000 in East Jerusalem, an increase of 12 per cent. This dynamic reality on the ground is racing far ahead of the international community’s tepid criticism of Israel’s unlawful conduct.”

The Special Rapporteur called upon the international community to develop a rights-based approach to Middle East peace-making, and to employ the plentiful tools of accountability measures to bring Israel back into compliance with international law.

“Only an approach based on accountability, equality and full rights for all can create the possibility of a prosperous and shared future for Palestinians and Israelis alike.”

* Source: Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights

At the same time, the Federation Council declares that the Russian Federation has no intentions to conduct a military operation against Ukraine

28 December 2021


Konstantin Kosachev, Russian diplomat
Kommersant

Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev said that Russia does not intend to initiate a military operation against Ukraine, but has the right to promptly use its armed forces to protect Russian citizens abroad in the event of an attack on them as Interfax reported.

"No, and again no, Russia is not hatching plans of its own free will to carry out a military operation against Ukraine," Kosachev said.

In his opinion, there is no point in conducting "some kind of proactive military operation against Ukraine."

“Russia has never attacked anyone first. I think that this will not happen in the future,” the senator said.

Related: Level of threat increased: Ukraine’s Foreign Minister about risk of full-scale Russian invasion

At the same time, he noted, Russia sees how the situation around Donbas is escalating, "how Ukraine is being pushed to try to solve the problems of the South-East by military means."

According to him, one of the grounds on which the Russian Armed Forces can be operatively used abroad is the "protection of Russian citizens" outside its territory in the event of an armed attack on them.

On December 25, more than 10,000 Russian troops were returning to their permanent bases after month-long drills near Ukraine.

At the same time, Bloomberg reported that Russia keeps on amassing the military forces next to the Ukrainian border. According to this data, in November, the Russian command brought tanks, artillery and anti-aircraft defense units to the regions adjacent to the border with Ukraine.

A Resurgent MbS Hits Back at Biden With Oil Prices


by Sami Hamdi | Dec 28, 2021

With soaring oil prices, rapprochement with European capitals, and the regional diplomatic tide turning in his favor, an emboldened MbS is increasingly confident he can force Biden to acknowledge him.

Gasoline prices displayed at a station in Huntingdon Valley, PA, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo Matt Rourke)

When it became clear that Trump would not win a second term, there was deep consternation in Riyadh. His successor Joe Biden had been vocal in his criticism of Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (MbS) and had vowed to take a tougher stance on his human rights abuses. There were also promises that a CIA report on the murder of Jamal Khashoggi would be released.

Such was the discomfort in Riyadh that MbS decided to swiftly end the blockade on Qatar that had been imposed in 2017 and drag his bewildered allies in Abu Dhabi, Cairo, and Manama into a reconciliation process with Doha. Qatar’s Emir Tamim was welcomed in Saudi Arabia’s Al-Ula with pomp and exuberance as MbS sought to temper Qatar’s relentless media coverage of his transgressions which could further exacerbate tensions with Biden.

Joe Biden had been vocal in his criticism of MbS and had vowed to take a tougher stance on his human rights abuses.

Saudi officials also put out exaggerated statements of praise for the US President as Riyadh braced for a difficult period in bilateral relations. But Biden went on to humiliate MbS regardless by releasing a damning CIA report that concluded the Crown Prince had ordered Khashoggi’s capture and murder. He then announced that he would only communicate with King Salman as the head of state, and not the Crown Prince, even though the latter is the de facto ruler.

Biden’s disdain for MbS was so pronounced that even US policy on Yemen has centered on pressuring Riyadh instead of the Houthis who toppled the internationally recognized government in their seventh armed attempt at seizing the country by force.

Biden announced an end to US support for Saudi Arabia’s military campaign. Worse for Riyadh was the withdrawal of US anti-missile installations that was then compounded by a US reluctance to deliver what the Saudis insisted were much-needed Patriot missile defense systems to counter the Houthis’ relentless targeting of key facilities within Saudi territory.

Biden has also steamrolled Riyadh in his pursuit of a new nuclear deal with Iran. Despite protestations that a deal would entrench Iran’s proxy militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, the Biden administration has insisted that allies must fall in line. Not even Tel Aviv has been able to dissuade Biden from his course. Riyadh has therefore found itself begrudgingly forced to engage in talks with Tehran knowing full well that the Iranians will cede nothing.

The deterioration in relations between Washington and Riyadh was so evident that an article entitled: “Saudi-US Relations: Divorce or Reconciliation?” was published in the kingdom’s largest domestic newspaper on September 12. The column argued that Washington was misguided in believing that it could deprioritize its relations with the kingdom and rely instead on smaller Gulf states to facilitate US interests.

Biden’s behavior has infuriated and frustrated Riyadh even as European capitals are believed to have privately expressed interest in the Crown Prince’s reforms and his Public Investment Fund. However, they have been hesitant to proceed due to reputational issues and decided to wait until the public scrutiny eases.

The view in Riyadh is that the longer Biden continues to express scorn and disrespect, the longer it will take for a constructive environment that is conducive for European capitals to move publicly.

Yet, MbS has been unable to push back against Biden due to the absence of any leverage. Instead, Riyadh has had to settle for an awkward policy of appeasement, carefully ensuring that it is not seen to be hampering Biden’s aims in the region.

Washington still needs Riyadh, and the latter remains indispensable however much Biden might wish otherwise.

That has all changed recently with the dramatic surge in oil prices. As COVID restrictions have eased globally, oil demand has soared. For the US, this means gas prices at the pump have increased around 40% since Joe Biden’s inauguration. Suddenly, his administration begins to reckon with a jarring reality: Washington still needs Riyadh, and the latter remains indispensable however much Biden might wish otherwise.

The shift in the Biden administration’s attitudes became more evident when Biden sent his National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to Riyadh in September. In October, Biden’s Climate Adviser John Kerry publicly praised MbS’s hosting of a Climate Change summit after personally meeting with the Crown Prince.

Yet, these visits appeared to do little to abate the disgruntlement and anger in Riyadh at Biden’s cold shoulder. An emboldened MbS refused to boost production in order to bring down oil prices. Biden’s frustration with MbS’s stubbornness was clear when he remarked at the G20 summit in Rome that: “The idea that Russia and Saudi Arabia and other major producers are not going to pump more oil so people can have gasoline to get to and from work, for example, is not right.”

Biden is aware of what MbS wants in exchange for concessions on oil production. In late October, Biden stated frankly in a townhall meeting that “there are a lot of Middle Eastern folks who want to talk to me… I’m not sure I’m going to talk to them.” Yet, in the same statement, Biden also acknowledged that negotiations were ongoing on the issues of oil prices and production output, thereby implicitly confirming the US President’s active attempts to convince the Crown Prince to raise production.

Biden appears adamant not to communicate directly with MbS as he is wary of alienating his voter base and his party.

Biden appears adamant that he does not want to communicate directly with MbS as he is wary of alienating many in his voter base and his own party. Indeed, the Democrats feel strongly about US relations with human rights abusers and are keen not to draw any comparisons between their party and the former Trump administration.

Biden’s decision not to sanction MbS after the release of the CIA report that indicted the Crown Prince in the murder of Khashoggi was evidence of Biden’s attempt to tread the fine line between maintaining a working relationship with US allies while upholding the image of the US as a defender of human rights.

Such is Biden’s insistence on not being seen to publicly associate with MbS that in late November, he announced that the US would release some of its domestic oil reserves into the market. In other words, Biden would rather tap into US reserves than yield to MbS’ demand for a direct conversation. However, the impact of these reserves on oil prices has been negligible and emphasizes just how important MbS remains to the oil markets and, for the time being, to the US economy.

From MbS’s perspective, Biden is clearly buckling as he continues to send high-level delegations to Riyadh that are pleading for Saudi assistance on oil prices and output. More importantly, Biden’s own Western allies are less inclined to follow his lead on isolating MbS.

The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson sent his Foreign Secretary Liz Truss to Riyadh to convey UK sentiments that they were prepared to engage with the Crown Prince on bilateral issues relating to investments and security.

French President Emmanuel Macron became the first Western Head of State since the Khashoggi murder to visit MbS personally in Riyadh on a state visit as he sought to capitalize on regional discontent with Washington to advance French interests.

A beleaguered Turkish President Erdogan is chasing reconciliation and exerting strenuous efforts to woo a cold Riyadh into a rapprochement that might help enhance market sentiment towards Turkey. Ties with Oman are improving rapidly while Qatar appears very receptive to expanding ties.

Lebanon’s minister for media George Kardahi, who criticized Saudi Arabia’s conduct in the war in Yemen, has been forced to resign and MbS has succeeded in rallying Gulf states to his side on the issue.

MbS’ stubbornness is not solely due to a desire to spite Biden for his open antagonism.

Yet, MbS’ stubbornness is not solely due to a desire to spite Biden for his open antagonism. There is also a sense in Riyadh that the kingdom has been forced far too many times over the last decade to sacrifice its economic and oil interests for the sake of an insincere ally in Washington. US attempts to advance its shale oil industry in the past, and its propensity to take advantage of OPEC production cuts by pumping more of its own oil to incrementally acquire more market share have incensed OPEC states.

Moreover, there are legitimate economic arguments for Saudi Arabia to resist the pressure from Biden. Riyadh is seeking to rapidly diversify its economy by introducing a number of mega projects that require significant financing. With the stuttering in foreign direct investment caused predominantly by reputational damage and exacerbated by Biden himself, the rise in oil price provides much-needed relief to the kingdom’s treasury and restores to some extent a financial buffer that has been battered over the past decade by low oil prices.

With the windfall from the surge in oil prices, there is the potential to cushion the more painful aspects of diversification that are already causing concern among ordinary Saudis, and to soften the blow from the emergency measures taken in 2020 that included large amounts of borrowing and tax hikes to counter the crash in oil price.

Still, this does not mean MbS is averse to increasing production to ease Biden’s economic woes. However, the Crown Prince’s condition is clear. MbS wants Biden to publicly acknowledge and recognize him and speak to him personally for the world to see. If the history of US pragmatism suggests anything, it is that this could well happen soon regardless of how Biden might feel about it. The US President may soon conclude that elections are inevitably won over the economy, and never over foreign policy.



ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Sami Hamdi  is the Editor-in-Chief of the International Interest, an experienced foreign policy adviser, and seasoned consultant who has advised governments and global companies on the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. @SALHACHIMI