THE FUTURE IS CALLING

Signals of the future detected by artificial intelligence

KISTI publishes “Emerging Weak Signals 2023 in Science and Technology”

Reports and Proceedings

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

 

IMAGE: COVER PAGE OF REPORT(KISTI DATA INSIGHT NO.24) view more 

CREDIT: KOREA INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION

Following the release of its Weak Signals in Future Technology report and Forecast Report on Weak Signals in Future Technology in Korean last year, the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (President Kim Jaesoo, hereinafter KISTI) has published Emerging Weak Signals 2023 in Science and Technology, and English report on weak signals in science and technology with future potential detected using artificial intelligence.

KISTI developed and released the findings on automated weak signal detection technology which uses data and algorithms to detect early signs of technology with potential for future growth last year. Weak signals- signals containing information about the future even though their significance remains yet to be seen in the present, are one way to explore technologies with potential for future growth.

 

With technological hegemony and economic recession intensifying globally, it is imperative to swiftly and accurately detect early signs of future technologies to actively establish a nation’s strategy for the future that hastens technological innovation and ensures autonomy in future technologies.

 

In response to such demands of the times, KISTI has released the Emerging Weak Signals 2023 in Science and Technology report presenting 439 weak signals in 24 fields of science and technology, which were detected using its independenly developed automated weak signal detection technology. This is a quantitative increase from the 391 weak signals detected in the previous year.

 

Also presented in the same report are findings on weak signal dynamics, comparing and analyzing changes and trends between weak signals in this report and those detected previously. The specific data presented are newborn weak signals appearing for the first time, weak signals that remained unchanged in the span of a year, and weak signals that were largely the same but partially changed in content from the previous year. Weak signal dynamics research will empower a more accurate understanding of the specific qualities of technologies with future potential, facilitating the establishment of a strategy on future technologies.

 

The automated weak signal detection technology developed by KISTI monitors global innovation trends such as the accelerating digital transformation and changing technological and industrial ecosystems in real time, presenting information swiftly and accurately to enable continous horizon scanning※ for understanding the future. It is hoped that the technology will provide digital insights to a wide range of entities performing research on technology innovation.

 

 

※ Horizon scanning - A systematic methodology for detecting early signs and trends in new technologies and social issues that could potentially become threats or opportunities with great influence in the future - Conventionally utilizes expert discussions and qualitative analysis, but attempts to use big data and AI analysis have been growing recently - Horizon scanning is a necessary step in predicting the future and shaping policy, widely utilized in the EU, UK, U.S. and the OECD

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- The Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information(KISTI) a non-profit government-funded institute to develop and support core sicence and technologt information resources and knowledge infrastructure and create an open, shared-data ecosystem, thereby contributing to the innovative growth of Korea and the quality of citizen’s lives.

1. of Report : Emerging Weak Signals 2023 in Science and Technology(KISTI Data Insight Report no.24)

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ARTICLE TITLE

Emerging Weak Signals 2023 in Science and Technology

A study analyses fake interaction services on social media

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSIDAD CARLOS III DE MADRID

A study by the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M) and IMDEA Networks analyses fake interaction services on social media. In addition to cataloguing the fraudulent ecosystem of “likes”, views, followers or online visits, the study points out the economic models that sustain it and the high level of personalisation that these services offer.

“There is an extensive catalogue of services covered by fake interaction resale panels. You can buy any form of interaction from any global or local service,” says one of the study’s authors, Juan Tapiador, a professor in UC3M’s Computer Science Department. Another conclusion reached by the researchers is the level of “customisation” of these services. For example, for many interactions (playing music, watching videos or “likes” on social media) you can choose the geographical origin of the account that will do so and the gender (male or female). “A third interesting finding is the disparity in prices between providers of the same service, which suggests that this is still a developing market where the market value of this service is unknown”, adds Juan Tapiador.

According to the study’s results, the cheapest rates include buying direct traffic to a website, getting “likes” on Instagram or getting views on multimedia platforms. For example, 1000 “likes” on Instagram cost 1.3 euros, while 2 euros can get 1000 views on YouTube or 1000 plays on Spotify. Interestingly, several services are offered for free so customers can check their quality and thus be convinced to invest in different ones. This way, for less than 9 cents you can get 1000 views on TikTok, SoundCloud or Instagram/IGTV. Buying Instagram followers is more expensive: for 4.3 euros you can get 1000. And then there are other more expensive services because they involve some personalisation, such as reviews on Google or TripAdvisor, which range at around 1 euro per text.

As Narseo Vallina-Rodríguez, associate research lecturer at IMDEA Networks and another of the work’s authors,  says, “potential consumers of this type of service can be anyone depending on the type of review: from influencers who want to promote their channels on social media to brands trying to promote the visibility of their products”.

This study, recently published in the scientific journal Computers & Security, is part of a wider research project on the ecosystem of services that provide fake activity and identity services on the internet. The aim of this research is to quantify and analyse the evolution of the global market price of services that (re)sell artificial interactions on social media and content distribution platforms, something that has rarely been studied in academic literature, according to the researchers.

Some platforms regularly provide reports on what they call “inorganic behaviour”, especially to report the volume of deactivated accounts and the purpose they served. However, the total volume of fake interactions on current platforms is unknown.

Is there any way to detect this fraudulent use of social media? “Platform providers can implement proactive measures to detect and identify accounts used to generate fake reviews. In the past, efforts were made to detect fake accounts on social networks such as Twitter, which were very effective and could be implemented to tackle this problem. However, it is a very costly effort”, explains Vallina-Rodríguez. 

To carry out this study, the researchers identified a significant sample of interaction resale panels (more than fifty) and collected data every day for 4 months on their service catalogue and the evolution of their prices. Once all this data was filtered and standardised, it was processed to analyse the service catalogue, the evolution of prices, the factors affecting the latter and the buying and selling activity in specialised forums.

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JOURNAL

Computers & Security

DOI

10.1016/j.cose.2022.103013 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

An Analysis of fake social media engagement services

Social media posts around solar geoengineering ‘spill over’ into conspiracy theories

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

Researchers from the University of Cambridge have analysed more than 800,000 tweets and found that negative emotions expressed about geoengineering – the idea that the climate can be altered using technology – can easily fall into conspiracy.

The researchers analysed tweets 2009 and 2021 tagged with #geoengineering. They used a combination of natural language processing, deep learning and network analysis to explore how public emotions, perceptions and attitudes have changed over a 13-year period.

The researchers found that there is a large amount of ‘spillover’ between geoengineering and conspiracy theories, especially around ‘chemtrails’, a conspiracy theory dating back to the 1990s. The researchers suggest that negative emotions related to geoengineering have a contagion effect, transcending regional boundaries and engaging with wider conspiracies. Their results are reported in the journal iScience.

As the climate crisis worsens, the search for solutions has accelerated. Some potential, albeit untested and controversial, solutions involve geoengineering, where various technologies could be used to alter weather or climate. Solar radiation management (SRM) is one hypothetical geoengineering solution where temperature rise might be addressed by reflecting some sunlight back into space. Possible forms this technology could take include cirrus cloud thinning or spraying aerosols into the stratosphere. But there are few, if any, opportunities for researchers to test these potential solutions.

“The amount of funding that’s been made available for geoengineering research, and especially outdoor experiments, is tiny,” said first author Dr Ramit Debnath, Cambridge Zero Fellow at the University of Cambridge. “When you ask funders why this is, the reason often given is that the research is too controversial.”

“There are significant and well-founded concerns around geoengineering, but fundamentally we’re interested in furthering knowledge in this area,” said senior author Dr Shaun Fitzgerald, Director of the Centre for Climate Repair in Cambridge’s Department of Engineering. “In order to do that, we need to have more informed discussions. We don’t want to dismiss any concerns expressed on social media, but we do want to put them into context.”

“The views expressed on social media don’t necessarily translate directly into wider public views, but there is still a lot we can learn by studying conversations that are happening,” said Debnath. “We wanted to know whether people who were tweeting about geoengineering were in fact, a vocal minority, and if so, what else are these people talking about?”

The researchers analysed a large dataset of more than 800,000 English-language tweets sent in the 13-year period between 2009 and 2021. The researchers used natural language processing techniques to analyse the emotions expressed in the tweets and assigned each tweet a ‘toxicity score’. The researchers then conducted a network analysis to determine how tweets about geoengineering interact with other hashtag networks and conspiracy theories.

“The chemtrail conspiracy theory is particularly popular among conspiracy theorists based in the United States, and our analysis found that tweets about chemtrails are the common link between geoengineering and conspiracies,” said Debnath. “Most of these tweets are sent by American users, but they spill over across regional and national boundaries.”

The ‘chemtrail’ conspiracy theory dates back to the 1990s. Believers in this patently false conspiracy allege that condensational trails (contrails) from aircraft are intentionally seeded with various chemical or biological compounds for nefarious purposes including population control or military testing. Those who believe the chemtrails conspiracy theory also allege that aircraft could be used for intentional weather and climate modification.

The researchers say that the common link between the chemtrails conspiracy and conspiracy theories around geoengineering is the idea that bad actors are ‘weaponising’ the weather with chemicals.

Their analysis also showed that positive emotions rose on global and country scales following events related to SRM governance, and negative emotions increased following the announcement of SRM projects or experiments.

The researchers say their work could help inform future discussions around SRM and other forms of geoengineering by putting social media discussions in context. “It’s a small echo chamber, but it’s quite a noisy one,” said Debnath.

While the controversy around geoengineering will continue on social media, the team say what they really need is quality data and research. “There are risks associated with geoengineering, but how do these compare with the risks of letting climate change continue unabated?” said Fitzgerald. “I worry that knowledge hasn’t progressed in this area. What happens if some rogue entity decides to go for a huge deployment of SRM, and people end up suffering because of it? This is why it’s so important to have informed discussions backed up by quality research.”

The researchers say their study provides a data-driven glimpse into the structure of online climate misinformation that has a strong contagion effect, leading to strengthening of conspiracy theories in the public domain. Understanding such links with respect to climate action is critical for the design of counteraction strategies.

The research was supported in part by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Cambridge Centre for Climate Repair, Cambridge Zero and Quadrature Climate Foundation, and the Google Cloud Climate Climate Innovation Challenge Award. This study is a part of an ongoing project co-lead by Dr Ramit Debnath with Cambridge Zero on improving public understand of climate change.

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JOURNAL

iScience

DOI

10.1016/j.isci.2023.106166 

ARTICLE TITLE

Conspiracy spillovers and geoengineering

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

28-Feb-2023

Sexting found to be associated with negative mental heath

Peer-Reviewed Publication

MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC./GENETIC ENGINEERING NEWS

 

IMAGE: EXPLORES THE PSYCHOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL ISSUES SURROUNDING THE INTERNET AND INTERACTIVE TECHNOLOGIES. view more 

CREDIT: MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC., PUBLISHERS

A new study has shown that sexting was associated with depression, anxiety, sleep problems, and compulsive sexual behaviors. The study is published in the peer-reviewed journal Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking. Click here to read the article now.

Sexting is defined as sending a sexually explicit image of oneself over text messaging. Sexting can include sending only, receiving only or “reciprocal” (sending and receiving) use of messages. 

Nicholas C. Borgogna PhD, from Texas Tech University, and coauthors, found that participants who had only ever sent (but not received) sexts reported more depression, anxiety, and sleep problems than the other groups. They also reported a possible connection between sexting, marijuana use, and compulsive sexual behavior.

“While sexting may not necessarily be a causal factor of negative mental health outcomes or substance use, some meaningful covariation clearly exists,” stated the investigators.

“Over 50% of adults report sending a sext, while women are up to four times more likely than men to report having received nonconsensual sexts.  Many individuals reveal they enjoy consensual sexting and feel it empowers them and builds self-confidence.  Nonconsensual sexts, however, can result in feelings of violation and awkwardness,” says Editor-in-Chief Brenda K. Wiederhold, PhD, MBA, BCB, BCN, Interactive Media Institute, San Diego, California and Virtual Reality Medical Center, La Jolla, California.

About the Journal
Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking is an authoritative peer-reviewed journal published monthly online and in print with Open Access options that explores the psychological and social issues surrounding the Internet and interactive technologies.  Complete tables of contents and a sample issue may be viewed on the Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking website.

About the Publisher
Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. is a global media company dedicated to creating, curating, and delivering impactful peer-reviewed research and authoritative content services to advance the fields of biotechnology and the life sciences, specialized clinical medicine, and public health and policy. For complete information, please visit the Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. website

 

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JOURNAL

Cyberpsychology Behavior and Social Networking

DOI

10.1089/cyber.2022.0312 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Case study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Further Understanding the Correlations Between Sexting and Mental Health: Considerations for Sex and Sexual Identity

Social media provide space for digital cosmopolitanism

What kind of people use social media to advocate for tolerance, human rights, and against authoritarianism?

Peer-Reviewed Publication

JOHANNES GUTENBERG UNIVERSITAET MAINZ

 

IMAGE: DR. ROMAN LIETZ OF MAINZ UNIVERSITY (LEFT) AND DR. FERGAL LENEHAN OF THE UNIVERSITY OF JENA AT A REDICO CONFERENCE IN THE SUMMER OF 2022 view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO/©: JULIA BAUR / JGU

Social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter have repeatedly been the subject of negative news coverage. As a result, the positive aspects associated with digital platforms have been overlooked. In light of this, a recent study has explored the social media activity of a carefully selected group of individuals who use the microblogging platform Twitter. The authors, Dr. Roman Lietz from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) and Dr. Fergal Lenehan from the Friedrich Schiller University of Jena, observe that socially engaged Twitter users share unexpected similarities despite their different backgrounds. "These digital cosmopolitans share similar values and are guided by similar motivations and perspectives on society," explained Dr. Roman Lietz from the Faculty of Translation Studies, Linguistics, and Cultural Studies at JGU.

"Digital cosmopolitanism" only sparsely researched so far

There is hardly a message on social media that does not express some form of criticism. The way in which Donald Trump instrumentalized Twitter in a new manner and the radicalization and networking of far-right terrorists via social media has meant that a special focus on the right-wing populist, agitator potential of platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, Telegram and other platforms has dominated research. Scholars rarely view the other side: Social media as a space for the spread of values such as solidarity and understanding.

In their study "Tweeting the World a Better Place" funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Dr. Roman Lietz and Dr. Fergal Lenehan investigate this digital cosmopolitanism. They examine the motives, biographies, and traits that lead ten different people across Europe to take positions on Twitter in support of human rights and tolerance, against authoritarianism. The qualitative study focuses on regular people rather than popular accounts of influencers.

Parallels between traditional volunteering and social Twitter engagement

The study finds that the Twitter users interviewed – regardless of age, place of residence, and specific interests such as climate protection, the combating of anti-Semitism, or the advocation for LGBT rights – possess surprising similarities in terms of values, motivations, and perspectives on society and on social developments. Furthermore, parallels between traditional volunteering and cosmopolitan Twitter are clearly visible. "We perceive this as a form of digital civic engagement," explained Lietz, describing the results. The study concludes by addressing how this form of commitment and dedication to "the world as a whole" can be accomplished in the sometimes harsh environment of social media.

The study was published in the academic journal Persona Studies as part of the Researching Digital Interculturality Co-operatively (ReDICo) research project.

Related links:
https://redico.eu/ – Researching Digital Interculturality Co-operatively (ReDICo)

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JOURNAL

Persona Studies

DOI

10.21153/psj2022vol8no3art1653 

ARTICLE TITLE

Tweeting the World a Better Place: Motivations and Values Underpinning the Creation of a Digital Cosmopolitan Persona

Estuaries face higher nutrient loads in the future – particularly on the Atlantic coast

Peer-Reviewed Publication

NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY

A new study finds the Atlantic Coast and eastern Gulf Coast of the United States are likely to see significant increases in nutrient loading in coming decades, putting those areas at heightened risk of experiencing harmful algal blooms.

Nutrient loadings are of interest in large part because they are key contributors to algal blooms, which pose risks for both human health and the environment.

Depending on the type of algae, blooms can produce toxins that harm both human and animal life. Algal blooms also contribute to “dead zones,” where there is little oxygen in the water to support a healthy ecosystem. In addition, algal blooms can also increase costs for drinking water treatment and for industrial sectors that rely on clean water. And the risk of algal blooms is increasing due to warmer temperatures, related to global climate change.

“We know the importance of nutrient loadings to ecosystem health, so we wanted to assess estuaries across the 48 contiguous states to determine how vulnerable these estuaries are to increased nutrient loads,” says Lise Montefiore, co-corresponding author of a paper on the work and a postdoctoral researcher at North Carolina State University. “Essentially, our goal was to use predictive modeling to estimate average annual nutrient loads for estuaries between the years 2035 and 2065. We were able to conduct assessments of all major estuaries in the lower 48 states, with the exception of the Mississippi River estuary.”

“One of the drivers for this study is that once an estuary has elevated nutrient loads, it is exceptionally difficult to restore that estuary,” says Natalie Nelson, co-corresponding author of the study and an assistant professor of biological and agricultural engineering at NC State. “It’s more effective to prevent high nutrient loads in the first place than it is to address nutrient loading problems once they’re established. We wanted to help policymakers identify which systems are most at risk and could benefit substantially from conservation efforts to prevent increased nutrient loads.”

For the study, researchers drew on both historical data and existing research that predicted land use and climate conditions for the continental U.S. between 2035 and 2065. This data was then incorporated into a model that predicted the annual average nitrogen and phosphorus loads for 112 estuaries in the lower 48 states.

The researchers applied the model to the time periods spanning the years 1990-2020 and 2035-2065.

“Our goal with this modeling was not to identify what the specific nutrient loads would be for any given estuary – this model is not designed to provide that level of detail,” Nelson says. “Rather, our goal was to identify which estuaries are most likely to see the biggest increases in nutrient loadings. That’s something this model can do well.”

“We found that almost all estuaries will see increases in nutrient loadings,” Montefiore says. “But the highest increases appear to be in the North Atlantic region – which stretches from New England to Virginia – with the greatest increases occurring in coastal regions north of the Chesapeake Bay.”

To help place the modeling results in context, the researchers also assessed the sensitivity of each estuary to increased nutrient loads. The researchers drew on existing research to classify estuaries based on the extent to which their conditions are likely to decline if their nutrient loads went up.

The researchers also evaluated each estuary’s “adaptive capacity,” essentially accounting for the resources available in each estuary that authorities could use to address nutrient loadings in a meaningful way. These factors included things such as state laws and regulations, availability of monitoring data, and the amount of wetlands in the estuary. The more resources available, the higher the estuary’s adaptive capacity score.

“Taking into account sensitivity, adaptive capacity and predicted increases in nutrient loadings offers a more complex – and more complete – assessment of which estuaries are most vulnerable,” Nelson says.

“For example, the North Atlantic region will likely see the greatest increase in nutrient loads,” Montefiore says. “However, estuaries in the North Atlantic region also have a great deal of adaptive capacity. As a result, the region has more resources than many other regions that could be used to reduce the predicted increase in nutrient loading, if authorities in the region choose to take action.”

“In addition, many of the estuaries in the North Atlantic already have high nutrient loads – so it’s not clear whether a further increase would have a significant impact,” Nelson says.

However, this overarching assessment also highlights the vulnerability of estuaries on the South Atlantic Coast and along the eastern coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

“Our modeling suggests that these regions will see significant increases in nutrient loadings, and several states in these regions have relatively low adaptive capacity,” says Montefiore.

“That being said, all of the states in the South Atlantic and eastern Gulf have substantial wetlands, which can be a valuable natural resource for reducing nutrient loadings,” says Nelson. “If these states choose to act and conserve wetlands, they may be able to mitigate the predicted increase in nutrient loads.”

“One of the key takeaways from this work is that land use plays a major role in nutrient loads – perhaps larger than many people would anticipate, when compared to climate change,” says Montefiore. “State and regional officials have limited ability to influence climate change, but they do have authority to control land-use decisions. That means they are in a position to help limit future nutrient loads and protect their water resources.”

The paper, “Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land Use,” is published open access in the journal Earth’s Future. The paper was co-authored by Adam Terando, a research scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and adjunct faculty member at NC State; and by Michelle Staudinger, an ecologist with USGS and adjunct faculty member at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

The work was done with support from the U.S. Geological Survey Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center; a National Climate Adaptation Science Center Science to Action Fellowship under grant number G18AC00336; an Early-Career Research Fellowship from the Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine; and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture Hatch project 1016068.

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JOURNAL

Earth s Future

DOI

10.1029/2022EF002884 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land Use

Targeting wealth managers would cripple Russia's oligarchs

Sanctions on shadowy matrix of financial experts more effective than asset seizure

Peer-Reviewed Publication

DARTMOUTH COLLEGE

 

IMAGE: THIS DATA VISUALIZATION OF NEARLY 80,000 FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES (YELLOW) AND THEIR ULTRA-WEALTHY CLIENTS IN RUSSIA (RED), CHINA (PURPLE), HONG KONG (GREEN), AND THE UNITED STATES (BLUE) SHOWS HOW WEALTH IS CONCENTRATED IN A FEW OFFSHORE WEALTH MANAGERS. RUSSIAN OLIGARCHS ESPECIALLY TEND TO RELY ON EXPERTS WITH SMALLER CLIENT LISTS TO ENSURE SECRECY, WHICH MAKES THEIR FORTUNES MORE VULNERABLE TO SANCTIONS AGAINST A FEW KEY INTERMEDIARIES. view more 

CREDIT: HO-CHUN HERBERT CHANG

From astronomical sums of money to opulent superyachts and lavish villas, the assets of the oligarchs providing the political and financial backing for Russian president Vladimir Putin's military ambitions have been publicly and fervently seized by Western nations since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Yet, the invasion—now in its second year—remains largely unabated as Russia's moneyed elite challenge sanctions in court or simply dodge them.

But a new study led by Dartmouth College researchers exposes a massive vulnerability for the Kremlin's critical cadre of billionaires—the small, secretive network of financial experts who manage their wealth. Published in the journal PNAS Nexus, the paper uses network science based on leaked documents to test the findings of an immersive sociological study of the offshore wealth managers who protect billionaires' fortunes. The results show that sanctions targeting these experts would wreak far greater damage than sanctioning oligarchs one by one.

"Rather than playing whack-a-mole with each individual oligarch, you take out one wealth manager and you effectively take out several oligarchs in one fell swoop," said co-author Brooke Harrington, a professor of sociology at Dartmouth who initiated the study after spending a total of eight years training as a private wealth manager and traveling to tax havens to observe the craft in action.

The researchers mapped the connections between more than 1.9 million wealth managers and their clients from Russia, China, the United States, and Hong Kong, as well as the more than 3.2 million network ties linking them. They relied on the Offshore Leaks Database maintained by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, which identifies wealth management professionals and ultra-rich individuals revealed through high-profile information leaks such as the 2016 Panama Papers, the 2017 Paradise Papers, and the 2021 Pandora Papers.

Mathematical "knockout experiments" revealed that these financial networks can be disrupted to the point of collapse by disabling a few key players, the researchers reported. They also found that wealthy individuals from autocratic nations such as Russia tend to rely on fewer managers with smaller client lists to ensure secrecy. Combined with the concentration of those wealth managers in the United Kingdom and European Union, this makes Russian oligarchs' offshore wealth particularly vulnerable to sanctions that target financial experts.

"Awareness of wealth managers and what they do is still in its infancy in terms of public policy. To end the invasion, there's an urgent need for sanctions informed by systematic evidence of the asset structure supporting Russia's campaign—our paper provides that evidence," Harrington said.

"To use a military analogy, we are providing a financial missile-guidance system for the countries trying to stop the war in Ukraine," she said. "A more targeted use of state-backed sanctions means a shorter war and less loss of life."

First author Ho-Chun Herbert Chang, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Southern California, said that the unique combination of network science with sociology provided a practical map of the relationships between the wealthy and the people who shepherd their assets—one that can be used to enact policy. Chang, who graduated from Dartmouth in 2018, will join Dartmouth as an assistant professor of quantitative social science in fall 2023.

"The combination of ethnographic work and data science generated results that are grounded and precise while still telling a compelling human story," said Chang, who carried out the calculations and data visualizations. Co-authors and Dartmouth professors Feng Fu, an associate professor of mathematics and Chang's former adviser, and Daniel Rockmore, professor of math and computer science, provided the theoretical background and designs for the numerical experiments.

"Our methodology puts equal weights on empirical rigor, pragmatic intervention, and theoretical insight to understand collective human behavior," Chang said. "This allows us to be extremely precise about who and what we can target. We can even estimate the impact of specific sanctions and are developing metrics to identify new targets."

The study in PNAS Nexus serves as a first step toward what the authors hope is a new field of study they call "the complex systems of secrecy" that seeks to understand shadowy webs of power, wealth and corruption.

"Complexity contributes strategically to secrecy. That goes double for highly secretive activities such as offshore wealth management where there was essentially no data to be had unless someone leaked it," Harrington said. "Now that 'Big Data' are available on networks usually shrouded in secrecy, we can examine them properly and better understand them as a scientific phenomenon that we expect is far larger in scope and applies to many different domains of life."

The study in PNAS Nexus demonstrates how collaborations between network and social scientists are essential for extracting the structure of these nebulous systems from reams of data, then applying the findings in ways that effect change, Rockmore said.

"The study of sociological phenomena and social networks was in many ways the origin point of modern network science," he said. "Our work follows that theme but extends it to the secret wealth networks of offshore asset management. If the problem can be described in terms of relationships, then network science can be brought to bear."

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JOURNAL

PNAS Nexus

DOI

10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad051 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Complex Systems of Secrecy: The Offshore Networks of Oligarchs

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

28-Feb-2023

Liquid nitrogen spray could clean up stubborn moon dust

Peer-Reviewed Publication

WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: CRYOCLASTIC FLOW CAUSED BY LIQUID NITROGEN POURED ON LUNAR DUST SIMULANT. view more 

CREDIT: WSU

PULLMAN, Wash – A liquid nitrogen spray developed by Washington State University researchers can remove almost all of the simulated moon dust from a space suit, potentially solving what is a significant challenge for future moon-landing astronauts.

The sprayer removed more than 98% of moon dust simulant in a vacuum environment with minimal damage to spacesuits, performing better than any techniques that have been investigated previously. The researchers report on their work in the journal, Acta Astronautica.

While people have managed to put men on the moon, they haven’t figured out how to keep them clean there. Similar to the clingiest packaging peanuts, moon dust sticks to everything that it touches. Worse than the packing peanuts, the dust is composed of very fine particles that are the consistency of ground fiberglass.

 “Moon dust is electrostatically charged, abrasive and gets everywhere, making it a very difficult substance to deal with,” said Ian Wells, first author on the paper and a senior in WSU’s School of Mechanical and Materials Engineering. “You end up with a fine layer of dust as a minimum just covering everything.”

During the six crewed Apollo missions to the moon in the 1960s and early 1970s, astronauts used a brush to try to remove the dust from their spacesuits, but it didn’t work very well. The abrasive and tiny dust particles can get into engines and electronics. They also got into the spacesuits, destroying their seals and making some of the expensive suits unusable. Astronauts also suffered from “lunar hay fever,” and researchers think that a longer exposure to the dust could cause lung damage similar to that of Black Lung Disease.

“It posed a lot of problems that affected the missions as well as the astronauts once they returned home,” said Wells.  

The NASA Artemis mission aims to land the first woman and first person of color on the moon in 2025 with the hope of eventually setting up a base camp there for further planetary exploration, so they are interested in finding a solution to the moon dust problem.

In their work, the research team demonstrated their technology that uses the Leidenfrost Effect to clean the space suits. The effect can be seen when one pours cold water on a hot frying pan, where it beads up and moves across the pan. Spray the very cold liquid nitrogen at a warmer dust-covered material, and the dust particles bead up and float away on the nitrogen vapor.

The team tested their cleaning method under normal atmospheric conditions and in a vacuum that is more similar to outer space with the sprayer performing better in the vacuum atmosphere.

The liquid nitrogen spray was also much gentler on spacesuit materials than other cleaning methods. While a brush caused damage to the spacesuit material after just one brushing, the liquid nitrogen spray took 75 cycles before damage occurred.

Supported by a NASA grant, the researchers’ innovative cleaning idea took a top prize last year at the agency’s Breakthrough, Innovative and Game-changing (BIG) Idea Challenge. In addition to Wells, undergraduate researchers on the paper included John Bussey and Nathaniel Swets. Jacob Leachman, associate professor in the School of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, led the project. 

The researchers are now working to fully understand and model the complex interactions between the dust particles and liquid nitrogen that allows the cleaning process to work. They are also applying for another grant to further test the technology in conditions that more closely approximate outer space, such as in lunar gravity.

1/6-scale astronaut after dust application (left); after dust application and treatment in a vacuum (center); after dust application, treatment in a vacuum, and spot treatment with a handheld liquid cryogen spray (right).

LNspray [VIDEO] | EurekAlert! Science News Releases

A liquid nitrogen spray developed by Washington State University researchers can remove almost all of simulated moon dust from a space suit, potentially solving what is a significant challenge for future moon-landing astronauts. The sprayer removed more than 98% of moon dust simulant in a vacuum environment with minimal damage to spacesuits, performing better than any techniques that have been investigated previously.

CREDIT

WSU

JOURNAL

Acta Astronautica

DOI

10.1016/j.actaastro.2023.02.016 

ARTICLE TITLE

Lunar dust removal and material degradation from liquid nitrogen sprays