Sunday, February 21, 2021

Northrop Grumman Antares rocket launches Cygnus cargo ship to space station for NASA

 

Research shows impact of seasonal temperature changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused tremendous upheaval, leading to more than 2.3 million deaths worldwide and 465,000 in the United States. Understanding the impact of seasonal temperature changes on transmission of the virus is an important factor in reducing the virus's spread in the years to come.

SARS-CoV-2 belongs to a large family of human coronaviruses, most of which are characterized by increased transmission in cooler, less humid months and decreased transmission in warmer, more humid months. With this understanding, researchers at the University of Louisville's Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, the U.S. Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center and others theorized that atmospheric temperature also would affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

The researchers compared daily low temperature data and logged cases of COVID-19 in 50 countries in the Northern Hemisphere between Jan. 22 and April 6, 2020. Their research, published this week in PLOS ONE, showed that as temperatures rose, the rate of new cases of COVID-19 decreased.

The data analysis showed that between 30 and 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a 1-degree Fahrenheit increase in daily low temperature was associated with a 1% decrease in the rate of increase in COVID-19 cases, and a 1-degree decrease in temperature was associated with an increase in that rate by 3.7%. By analyzing data from early in the pandemic, the results were obtained without significant influence by lockdowns, masking or other social efforts to contain the virus.

Although COVID-19 is an infectious disease that will have non-temperature dependent transmission, our research indicates that it also may have a seasonal component. Of course, the effect of temperature on the rate of transmission is altered by social interventions like distancing, as well as time spent indoors and other factors. A combination of these factors ultimately determines the spread of COVID-19."

Aruni Bhatnagar, Ph.D., Co-Author and Director, Brown Environme Institute

The researchers concluded that summer months are associated with slowed transmission of COVID-19, as in other seasonal respiratory viruses. This seasonal effect could be useful in local planning for social interventions and timing of resurgence of the virus.

In the United States, sharp spikes in COVID-19 were seen over the summer, but the researchers noted that based on the data they analyzed, cooler summer temperatures may have resulted in an even higher number of cases. The data also indicates that the correlation between temperature and transmission was much greater than the association between temperature and recovery or death from COVID-19.

"This understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 temperature sensitivity has important implications for anticipating the course of the pandemic," said Adam Kaplin, M.D., Ph.D., of Johns Hopkins, first author of the study. "We do not know how long the currently available vaccines will sustain their benefits, nor what the risks are of new variants developing over time if the Northern and Southern Hemispheres continue to exchange COVID-19, back and forth across the equator, due to their opposing seasons. But it is reasonable to conclude that this research suggests that, like other seasonal viruses, SARS-CoV-2 could prove to be extremely difficult to contain over time unless there is a concerted and collaborative global effort to work to end this pandemic."

Source:
Journal reference:

Kaplin, A., et al. (2021) Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. PLOS ONE. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246167.

Pfizer is using Israel to trial their vaccine: 
here's what it shows
TODAY

Israeli researchers have found that having just one shot of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine may lead to lower viral loads, making it harder to transmit Covid-19 if someone becomes infected after the first dose.



A health worker prepares an injection of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine against the coronavirus at a vaccination centre in Dubai. Photo: AFP

And it's not the only positive research about the Pfizer jab to come out of Israel recently.

A separate independent Israeli study, from the country's largest healthcare provider Clalit, found a 94 percent drop in symptomatic Covid-19 infections among 600,000 people who received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine.

Researchers also found the fully inoculated group was 92 percent less likely to develop severe illness from the virus.

Pfizer has said its jab, which has begun to be rolled out in New Zealand to vaccinators and border workers on Friday, needs two doses taken 21 days apart to be effective.





A quarantine worker at Auckland's Jet Park Hotel quarantine facility is given the Covid-19 vaccine on Saturday. Photo: Supplied / Ministry of Health
Why are we getting so much Israeli data?

Nigel McMillan grew up in Timaru, and is professor of infectious diseases and immunology at Queensland's Griffith University's Menzies Health Institute, he said it wasn't surprising there was an influx of information about the Pfizer jab to come out of Israel.

The Pfizer option was the first coronavirus vaccine worldwide to make it through phase three of testing, Professor McMillan explained, which meant it was out being used in the community.

And Israel has already administered more than 6.7 million doses, according to Bloomberg's Covid vaccine tracker.

This high vaccination rate and the fact that every citizen has a digital health record made it easy for the country to collate and compare information.

"Because [Israel] is vaccinating lots of people, it allows them to compare non-vaccinated and vaccinated people," Professor McMillan said.





An Israeli health worker gives the Covid-19 vaccine at a bar in the coastal city of Tel Aviv on 18 February. Photo: AFP

Pfizer has signed an agreement with the Israeli Ministry of Health for anonymised data on vaccine recipients - an arrangement which the company describes as a "non-interventional 'real-world' evidence data collection collaboration", rather than a clinical research study.
Decreased viral loads after one vaccine

The first study, which found reduced viral loads after the first Pfizer dose, retrospectively examined the test results of 2,897 patients.

"What this shows is, if you're vaccinated, even with just one dose, and immunity isn't really expected to kick in until at least seven to 10 days … you have less virus in your nasal swabs," Professor McMillan said.

"So you have about four times less virus," he said, adding this meant it was less likely the infected person would the transmit the virus.

Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases and microbiology professor at the Australian National University, said the results were not altogether surprising.

"Every vaccine at least decreases the severity of the disease, and therefore the amount of virus you probably shed," he said.

"The Pfizer vaccine's [impact on disease severity] so far looks the most promising, so I'm not surprised by evidence that it makes an impact on transmission."

But the data has its limitations. It's yet to be published or peer reviewed, and does not include data for what happens after the second dose of Pfizer.

"It's certainly an encouraging trend; if one dose will reduce it four-fold, two doses would be expected to reduce that even more," Professor McMillan said.

"We're really interested in the idea that transmission may be prevented, because this is an important issue in terms of how quickly things might return to normal."

And while the initial findings have been welcomed by Pfizer, the company made clear that two doses of the vaccine were required to provide the 95 percent efficacy rate observed in its phase three trial, and further research was needed to better understand transmission.



Griffith University professor of infectious disease Nigel McMillan. Photo: Supplied/ Griffith University
Drop in symptomatic Covid-19 infections

Meanwhile, the Clalit study found a 94 percent drop in symptomatic Covid-19 infections among 600,000 people who received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine.

Professor McMillan said although he had not seen the study's dataset, it would be a positive step if the results were replicated in all vaccine recipients.

"That means that the virus will basically not be able to circulate in the community, it will allow things to return to normal," he said.

The data behind this second study has yet to be publicly released.

Even Pfizer says it's yet to see the published research from Clalit, but it "looks forward to those results".

Professor McMillan said during the pandemic, it had been common for research to be released in its early stages because health experts and the broader community were keen to examine any new findings.

However, he maintained that the "gold standard" of scientific research was data that had been peer reviewed and published.

-ABC

UK 

The Liberal case for a Universal Basic Income

Following the economic downturn of COVID-19, a renewed interest has emerged in the idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI). This development has been visible on the UK political scene, with 170 MPs and Lords calling for an “Emergency UBI” in the wake of the first national lockdown.

In practice, a UBI would give every citizen a guaranteed weekly government payment to supplement their main earnings. In effect, it would provide those hit hardest by the COVID recession with a baseline economic security; “a basic income floor”, as Prospect puts it.

In being an expansion of the welfare state, advocacy of a UBI tends to be more common on the ideological left. Indeed, it was the leftist Green Party who advocated such a scheme in the UK’s last General Election, in proposing that every citizen receive a minimum of £89 per week by 2025.

But should the UBIs appeal be limited to those on the left, or can it find favour with a broader demographic? It is true that the concept has received support from contemporary figures across the political spectrum, with noteworthy examples including the free market economist Milton Friedman, the left-leaning economist Thomas Piketty, and the former US President Barack Obama.

It is my belief that the introduction of a UBI is a cause which all liberals should get behind. With its potential to facilitate greater individual freedom and economic opportunity, as well as an enhanced sense of social justice, I believe it aligns fully with modern liberal values.

It has long been understood by liberals that freedom from economic deprivation is as vital a consideration as freedom from physical harm. If a person is deprived the necessities of living, they can hardly be free to pursue a productive, prosperous life. It is for this reason that liberals uphold the need for a sufficiently sized government safety net. But with recent years witnessing a continual rise in the UK poverty levels, as seen in the upsurge in food bank usage, it would appear undeniable that the country’s current safety net is deficient in its size and outcomes.

Such a predicament is set to be compounded by the economic downtown inflicted by COVID-19. According to the Office of Budgetary Responsibility, as many as 3.5 million UK residents could find themselves unemployed in 2021. Such economic wounds would no doubt be deepened by the country’s ever-rising wealth gap, with this a major issue prior to the pandemic.

Liberals must be prepared to call on the Conservative Government to undertake swift, bold action fuelled by an openness to new approaches. Simply papering over the cracks will not do; the system needs significant reform and expansion, justifying the addition of a UBI to ensure the basic living costs of every citizen can be met.

If implemented, a UBI could provide a monetary foundation for those without large incomes to pursue the future they desire. Whether it be reducing one’s working hours to spend time with family, invest in a dream business venture, or embark on further study, the extra cash from a UBI would afford every individual with the enhanced freedom to pursue previously unattainable goals. As Liberal Democrat Councillor Rhys Taylor emphasises, it could restore the liberal vision of a social security system which gives “everyone the freedom, the dignity, and the opportunity to get to where they want to be”.

Detractors may well stress the costliness of such a scheme as making it unsustainable. Whilst these concerns are understandable, recently published estimates do cost a prospective UBI at around £8bn in net terms (based on a minimum weekly amount of £51). In amounting to just 0.5% of GDP, this can hardly be deemed an untenable sum. Also, if installed on a permanent basis there would be scope for some scaling down of means-tested benefits, allowing for a reduction in current administration costs. It would however be necessary to retain some current means-tested benefits, with the UBI’s prospective weekly amount unlikely to be enough to cover the essential costs of those on the lowest incomes.

Some may also object out of concern of normalising a culture in which government handouts are an acceptable alternative to work. But I do not think this would happen. With it being an unconditional form of government assistance, a UBI creates no financial incentive to choose welfare over work. It is perhaps the only form of welfare designed principally as a supplement to an individual’s earnings as opposed to a substitute. For most recipients, the additional income would serve to enable greater saving and investment, empowering them to progress more rapidly in their personal and professional lives. It would in no way undermine the realisation of greater economic opportunity.

It is also worth highlighting the recent cases in which UBI’s (in varying forms) have been implemented. Iran, Ontario and Finland are all examples of jurisdictions which in recent years have put the theory into practice. Reporting on the Iranian experiment confirms no adverse impact on employment levels, whilst in Finland levels of economic and mental wellbeing are reported to have improved. This would appear to dispel any notion of UBI being an unproven quantity.

With its clear potential to produce a freer, fairer, more opportunity-rich society, the case is strong for UK liberals to support a UBI. If its overriding function is to remove barriers to widespread freedom and prosperity, the idea undeniably complements the liberal vision for a better society.

It is noteworthy that both candidates in the last Liberal Democrat Leadership Election expressed their support for a UBI. I am hopeful this will form a lasting blueprint for the future liberal movement.

* Sam Wade has been a member of the Liberal Democrats since 2019

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UK

The word “truth” is being hijacked by fake news conspiracy theorists who claim their dark ideas are light

There have been too many victims of Covid-19. People for whom coronavirus was the primary cause of death. Many others whose death was accelerated or whose recovery from other diseases was cancelled through catching Covid.

Truth has been a victim too. Conspiracy theorists and populists have been promoting a distorted review of reality. Uncertainty, crisis and threat have always been fertile grounds for conspiracy theories. But has never been so important to get the truth right.

A “truthpaper” is currently been pushed through doors around the country. Truth? Not in my book.

The coronavirus epidemic has been a killer. Two and a half million people have died after being infected with Covid across the world. In the UK, 120,000 people.

There has been wide spectrum of debate on how we should have dealt with the pandemic. That debate is the legitimate way that science and the political process responds to any threat or crisis.

But there has been a smaller but not insignificant challenge from the conspiracy theorists.

For months “The Light” has been pushed through letterboxes in some areas of the country. Styling itself as “A Truthpaper,” it adopts an evangelical religious air. It’s professionally produced and it’s hard to fault the editing and design or paper quality. Independently funded, it boasts a distribution of 125,000.

But the quality of its editorial content, design and production cannot for moment disguise the danger of its content.

The front page headline of the current edition screams “Covid Shots Kill and Injure Hundreds”.

If we take this one article at face value, and I don’t, then hundreds have died after being vaccinated. But when the article was written in January up to 100 million people across the world had had their first vaccination. If vaccination people have been dying in any significant numbers after vaccination it would be on every frontpage of every newspaper in this country. SAGE would be less than sage about it.

Donald Trump didn’t start fake news by a long way. But more than anyone in recent years, he elevated into an art form. Fake news Trump screamed at the media outlets. That was nothing more than a smokescreen for the fake news he was putting out himself. He created alternative truths. Polarised realities. We saw one of the consequences of polarisation with the storming of the Capitol. With the depth of commitment from activists that many of will find frightening.

The human mind has an innate ability to link this bit of information with that bit of information, even if there is no scientific basis for that connection. That, along with an ingrained distrust for “the system” motor conspiracy theories. And conspiracy theories are the life and blood of The Light.

This fake newspaper continues with headlines such as “From Science to Dogma” and “The Covadian Totalitarian Cult” and “Murder of The Innocent”. And then it reveals its roots with attacks on GM crops, 5G, smart technologies and the BBC as the “official mouthpiece for fascist nutters”.

I am not arguing that fake newspapers like this should be banned. That would be illiberal. But I am concerned that they are dangerous. In my home county of Shropshire, they will not sway the majority opinion but they can contribute to the undermining confidence in the local, national and international efforts to bring Covid-19 under control.

We have space in our society for alternative opinions and for challenges to the establishment view. But the challenges need to be rationale not untruths like those pedalled by The Truth.

* Andy Boddington is a Lib Dem councillor in Shropshire, is shortly to receive his state pension. He blogs at andybodders.co.uk. He is Friday editor of Lib Dem Voice.

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Russian farmworkers first humans to contract new form of bird flu

Seven workers at a poultry farm in southern Russia were the first humans to catch the H5N8 strain of avian influenza in humans.

Russia told the World Health Organization that the virus isn’t yet spreading between people, Anna Popova, the country’s public health chief, said Saturday, Bloomberg reported. All of the farmworkers had asymptomatic cases and recovered, she said.

The strain was first reported in November, found in 15 Russian regions among both poultry and wild birds. It was not considered dangerous to humans at first.

“It is not transmitted from person to person,” Popova said. “But only time will tell how soon future mutations will allow it to overcome this barrier.” The world has a chance to prepare for possible mutations and to respond in a timely way to develop tests and vaccines for the strain, she said.

Siberia’s Vector Institute said on Saturday it would start developing human tests and a vaccine against H5N8, RIA news agency reported.

Chickens await vaccination against bird flu at the settlement Peredovoi 62 miles from the Russia's southern city of Stavropol on March 11, 2006.
Chickens await vaccination against bird flu at the settlement Peredovoi 62 miles from the Russia’s southern city of Stavropol on March 11, 2006.
REUTERS/Eduard Korniyenko/File Photo

WHO acknowledged that it received the information from Russia. “We are in discussion with national authorities to gather more information and assess the public health impact of this event,” the organization said in an email to Reuters.

H5N8 has also been found in France, where hundreds of thousands of birds were slaughtered last month to prevent the spread. It was also behind the worst bird flu outbreak in Japan on record in late 2020, and has been found in China, the Middle East and North Africa in recent months, but so far only in poultry.