US exports to China grow at ‘expense’ of Australia after Beijing’s trade ban

Following Beijing’s ban on a range of Australian products, the US has been steadily ‘backfilling’ the void left by its ally

Political observers say the US will prioritise its own economic needs ahead of its allies, including Australia, despite close ties

Su-Lin Tan
Published: 19 May, 2021

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said Washington will not desert Australia in its dispute with China. Photo: AP

US exports to China of wine, cotton, log timber and wood have increased over the past year amid a block by Beijing on the same products from Australia, trade data shows.

Exports of American coal have also risen since February after Australian shipments of the raw material were banned in October last year.

According to some analysts, the trade data suggests the United States is prioritising its own economic interests over its ally’s, despite a promise from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken last week that Washington would not leave Australia to face economic coercion from Beijing.


Trade ‘only one part of the battle‘ in China-Australia dispute, says legal expert Bryan Mercurio

“I doubt there is much substance to such comments beyond its signalling value, because when it comes to trade, Australia and the US do not always share the same interests,” said Chengxin Pan, an associate professor of international relations at Deakin University.

“In fact, as the case of China’s banning Australian coal indicates, Australia’s loss has turned out to be the US’ gain because the latter has been able to increase its coal exports to China at the expense of Australia.”

Former Australian ambassador to China Geoff Raby said the comments amounted to the “usual empty reassurances made to allies to keep their resolve” and proof of Washington’s support will come when the “US refuses to backfill into the Chinese market where Australian trade has been blocked”.

What happened over the first year of the China-Australia trade dispute?
20 Apr 2021


US monthly exports of wine, cotton, log timber and wood have been climbing since February last year, before the coronavirus pandemic broke out globally. But American coal exports, while only a small fraction of Australia’s pre-ban exports to China, have accelerated quickly in 2021, doubling in March over February.

In February, the US exported over 466,000 litres (123,104 gallons) worth of wine in containers of two litres or less to China, worth about US$2.3 million, compared to about US$740,000 a year earlier.

China officially slapped duties of up to 218.4 per cent on Australian wines in containers of up to two litres in March, crippling the sector.

While there have been monthly fluctuations over the past year, US exports of wine to China are on an upwards trajectory.

Wine Australia, the national industry association, said last month the total value of its products that managed to clear Chinese customs between December and March was A$12 million (US$9.3 million) – a fraction of the A$325 million (US$253 million) total that entered the country in the same period a year earlier.

Before the conflict, China imported nearly 40 per cent of Australia’s wine exports, an export industry worth around A$1 billion (US$779) a year.

The US has also been boosting its shipments of wood and timber products.

Coal is seen at the Port of Newcastle in New South Wales, Australia. Photo: Bloomberg

China blocked log timber exports from six of Australia’s seven states and territories late last year. The US, meanwhile, increased the value of its wood product exports to China to US$153 million in February, compared to US$91 million a year earlier. Like wine, wood exports have fluctuated, but are on an upwards trajectory.

After Beijing unofficially cut off Australian cotton last November, the US exported US$153 million in cotton to China in February, up from just over US$100 million a year earlier.

The steady uptick in US exports will go towards China’s purchasing commitments under the phase one trade agreement signed last January. China committed to buying US$200 billion in additional goods and services over 2020-21 on top of 2017 levels, although it is
lagging behind targets.

Tensions between China and Australia, which started when Canberra pushed for an international inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus, show no sign of easing.

Australia ditched diplomacy for ‘adversarial approach’ to China and ‘a pat on the head’ from US

On Tuesday, China’s top planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said Australia should bear full responsibility for the recent
suspension of a high-level economic dialogue between the two nations.

“In recent times, the Australian government has blocked China-Australia investments without reason hurting mutual trust between the two countries and affecting the confidence of trading businesses. We have no choice but to respond accordingly,” NDRC spokesman Jin Xiandong said.

Australian Minister for Trade Tourism and Investment Dan Tehan expressed his disappointment at the axing of the dialogue, saying the country remained open to engaging at the ministerial level.


Additional reporting from Amanda Lee

MYANMAR
Buddhist monks in Myanmar divided over military coup
Caroline Kwok

Anti-coup protesters in Myanmar have been mobilising on the streets daily for three months since the military seized power on February 1, 2021. Joining the ranks are several largely young monks who have defied religious edicts against political activity to condemn the generals. But Myanmar's Buddhists are split on the coup, with some prominent hardline religious leaders defending the junta who have used lethal violence on hundreds of protesters.

Tokyo 2020: nothing to cheer about an Olympic Games with no fans

Tokyo 2020 organisers have banned foreign fans and will not decide on Japanese fans attending until as late as June

Football and other sports have ploughed on with seasons in empty stadiums but one-off Olympics feels different

Published: 18 May, 2021

Social distancing signs are pictured on grandstand seats during a ceremony on the second day of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games torch relay at Shinobugaoka Stadium in Fukushima on March 26, 2021. Photo: AFP


“Football without the fans is nothing” is the message on the statue of legendary manager Jock Stein at Celtic Park.

It’s a sentiment that football fans have got behind in recent years as consumerism has gripped the game with hand-painted banners bearing the message appearing at Liverpool’s Anfield, Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium and Leicester City’s King Power Stadium among clubs in the English Premier League.

It’s a message that translates internationally, too. “Fussball ohne fans ist nichts!” as the German fans had it in the Bundesliga game between Borussia Monchengladbach and Wolfsburg last June.

That banner was draped over a stand that was filled with cardboard cut-outs of fans at Borussia Park, with the Covid-19 pandemic preventing them from attending.

Aside from becoming the battle cry against consumerism, the pandemic has given Stein’s sentiment a more literal meaning in these months of empty stadiums.

Take Manchester United where an official club banner stating “Football is nothing without fans,” apocryphally attributed to former boss – and Stein’s fellow Scot – Matt Busby, adorns the barren stands at Old Trafford.

Why Tokyo thinks its Olympics show must go on – even as Covid-19 booms
16 May 2021

While it might not be nothing, football is certainly not the same without the fans. Not in the slightest.

It has been bemoaned by fans, media, players and coaches alike – the missing spark in derby matches devoid of atmosphere, the lack of tension as teams chase games with time ticking down, the absence of home advantage.

We might well be getting used to football in empty stadiums but everyone wants fans back in stadiums as soon as is safe to add to the sporting spectacle.


01:25
Anti-Olympics protesters petition to cancel Tokyo games

If fans are important to the world game then we will soon see how they are even more important to the only sporting event that is more global: the Olympics.

We knew in March that there will be no foreign fans in attendance at the delayed
Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games this summer – and they will no doubt be the poorer for it.

It remains to be seen whether even Japanese fans will be permitted.

That was meant to be decided last month but Games organisers have reserved the right to make that decision and on stadium capacity as late as June.

Public opinion wants fans to stay away – with an opinion poll by the Yomiuri daily last weekend saying only 39 per cent of the public want the Games to go ahead at all and 23 per cent want there to be no spectators if they do.

The original playbook already hinted at an unusual Olympics, with fans urged to “support athletes by clapping and not singing or chanting”.

It is sad for the athletes looking forward to the zenith of their sporting careers.

How are they meant to go faster, higher, stronger without the encouragement – or indeed booing as seen at Rio 2016 – of fans in the stadiums?

What is a long jump without the fans clapping in unison ahead of a final attempt? What is the 100m final without tens of thousands of fans’ collective intake of breath? What is any world record attempt without the moment everyone in the crowd realises it is on course and starts willing it to happen with their cheers?

Man United and Liverpool fans overseas can fight back against football’s greedy owners
14 May 2021


It is a key part of the theatre of sport, both for those competing and as much if not more for those watching in the stands and at home.

Some times it doesn’t add to the narrative so much as creates it, with booing more than cheering.

Therein lies the tale of the underdog, such as Rio fans booing Spain and cheering Croatia in the men’s basketball group game or Athens fans booing Paraguay and cheering on Iraq in the men’s football semi-final.

No singing and chanting, Covid-19 rules unveiled for delayed Tokyo Olympics

It is also this narrative building which saw the Russians booed in Rio after state-sanctioned doping, with the fans coming down harder on them than the International Olympic Committee.

Then there’s the booing of judges for not agreeing with the fans.

It’s happened often but never more so than in Athens in 2004 where booing fans held up the men’s horizontal bars final for nearly 10 minutes after 2000 gold medallist Alexei Nemov was scored too low for a daring routine. That he was a Russian shows how these narratives can change between Games.


If there are no fans at all in attendance, as is being mooted, then there will have to be measures to make this Olympics less muted.

Other sports have wrestled with this for both the players and the television audience.

Cardboard cut-outs of fans have been widespread across the sporting world while La Liga’s broadcasts featured a virtual crowd projected on to the empty stands. Japan even had robot fans at the baseball.


There have been plenty of experiments with piping crowd noise into the stadium or on to the audio for television but it is not the same as a live crowd.


Yet another reason why this might be the most lifeless Olympics yet and while the Games might go ahead they will do so without the fun.

#NOTOKYOOLYMPICS

Over 80% in Japan oppose Olympics this year: poll

Demonstrators protest against the Tokyo Olympics on Monday night.

 Photo: AFP Tokyo 2020 Olympics

May 18 

TOKYO

More than 80 percent of Japanese polled oppose hosting the virus-postponed Olympics this year, a new survey showed on Monday, underlining public antipathy less than 10 weeks before the Tokyo Games.

The latest downbeat poll comes after Japan expanded a coronavirus state of emergency Friday as the nation battles a fourth wave of infections.

The surge in cases has put pressure on the country's healthcare system, with medical professionals repeatedly warning about shortages and burnout.

The weekend poll by the Asahi Shimbun daily found 43 percent of respondents want the 2020 Games cancelled, with 40 percent wanting a further postponement.

Those figures are up from the 35 percent who backed cancellation in a survey by the paper a month ago and the 34 percent who wanted a further delay.

"I am one of those in the 80 percent. I think the Olympics should be postponed. Is it that difficult to postpone it?" passer-by Sumiko Usui, 74, told AFP in Tokyo.

Takahiro Yoshida, 53, also expressed doubts over the event.

"In my honest opinion, it will be difficult to hold the Games... Athletes from overseas must be worried as well, because Japan's coronavirus situation is bad," he said.

Only 14 percent support holding the Games this summer as scheduled, down from 28 percent, according to the Asahi poll of 1,527 replies from 3,191 telephone calls.

If the Games go ahead, 59 percent of respondents said they want no spectators, with a third backing lower fan numbers and only three percent a regular-capacity Games.

For months, polling has found a majority in Japan oppose holding the Games this summer.

A separate poll by Kyodo News published Sunday showed 59.7 percent back cancellation, though further postponement was not listed as an option.

Olympic organizers say tough anti-virus measures, including regular testing of athletes and a ban on overseas fans, will keep the Games safe.

But the Kyodo poll found 87.7 percent of respondents worry that an influx of athletes and staff members from abroad may spread the virus.

Amid mounting public opposition to the games, several dozen protesters rallied in central Tokyo against the Olympics.

"It's obvious to everyone that we should cancel the Games, but nobody -- the Tokyo 2020 organizing committee, the Tokyo government nor Prime Minister (Yoshihide) Suga -- none of them are making the decision," Toshio Miyazaki, 60, who organized the demonstration, told AFP. "We cannot afford to host the Olympics when we have to defeat the coronavirus."

Another demonstrator slammed government policy as "contradictory".

"If authorities put priority on the economy, I want them to lift the restrictions on restaurants and bars," Yusuke Kawai, a 40-year-old match-making party organizer, said.

"If they prioritize the anti-virus measures, I want them to cancel the Olympics."

Asked about the state of public opinion Monday, government spokesman Katsunobu Kato said the administration would "make efforts so that the Japanese people understand the Tokyo Games will be held in a safe and secure manner".

"We need to give explanations on details of the concrete (coronavirus) measures," he said, insisting that the Games would not put further pressure on medical services.

Japan has seen a smaller COVID-19 outbreak than many countries, with fewer than 11,500 deaths so far. But the government has come under pressure for its vaccine rollout.

The Kyodo poll found 85 percent of respondents considered the rollout slow, with 71.5 percent unhappy with the government's handling of the pandemic.

Thousands of slots were snapped up on Monday as online bookings opened for two mass vaccination centers which will deliver up to 10,000 shots a day in Tokyo and 5,000 in Osaka, initially to the elderly.

All 25,000 available slots were already booked up in Osaka, the centre said, while around 21,000 reservations were made in Tokyo.© 2021 AFP

#NOTOKYOOLYMPICS

Tokyo doctors association calls for Olympics cancelation

More than 80 percent of people in Japan say they want the Tokyo Games to be canceled or postponed again  Photo: AFP

Tokyo 2020 Olympics

Today  

TOKYO

A Japanese doctors' group has urged the cancelation of the Olympics, even as Games organizers reported a surplus of applications from medics to volunteer at the virus-postponed event.

With less than 10 weeks until the Tokyo Games begin and as Japan battles a surge in infections, public opinion remains strongly opposed to the event going ahead this summer.

But Olympic officials say it can be safely held with COVID-19 countermeasures and point to successful test events, including some featuring overseas athletes.

The Tokyo Medical Practitioners Association, an association of around 6,000 doctors working in Tokyo, said they were "struggling with the fourth wave" of virus cases, calling it the largest so far.

"Canceling an event that has the potential to increase the number of infections and deaths is the right choice," the group said in a statement on Monday.

It urged the government and Games organizers to consult the International Olympic Committee with the aim of canceling the event.

The statement came after a separate union of Japanese hospital doctors warned last week that holding the 2020 Games safely was "impossible".

Japan's virus outbreak has been relatively small, with around 11,500 deaths, but its vaccine rollout is moving slowly and the latest spike in cases has medics warning of shortages and burnout.

The government last Friday expanded a virus state of emergency that will be in force until the end of May, less than two months before the Games open on July 23.

Tokyo 2020 organizers said Tuesday that 395 doctors -- nearly double the required number of 200 certified sports medics -- had applied to volunteer at competition venues and in the athletes' village.

Controversy had previously surrounded the organizers' request for the services of 500 nurses, which sparked accusations of diverting crucial medical resources.

More than 80 percent of people in Japan want the Tokyo Olympics to be canceled or postponed again, according to the latest poll by the Asahi Shimbun daily.

At a shooting test event on Tuesday, top Games official Yasuo Mori said the knowledge gained at such rehearsals would be used to update virus rulebooks for athletes and other participants.

"Throughout the test events, only a few people tested positive for the virus, and we were able to go through procedures at the airport smoothly," he said. "However... there were a relatively smaller number of people than will be at the Olympics, so we will have to discuss how we manage the Olympics in the summer."

© 2021 AFP

Herd immunity appears unlikely for 

COVID-19

By William Petri
CHARLOTTESVILLE, West Virginia

When COVID-19 first began spreading, public health and medical experts began talking about the need for the U.S. to reach herd immunity to stop the coronavirus from spreading. Experts have estimated that between 60% and 90% of people in the U.S. would need to be vaccinated for that to happen. Only about 35% of the population has been fully vaccinated, and yet the CDC said on May 14, 2021 that fully vaccinated people can lose their masks in most indoor and outdoor settings.

An important question now arises: What happens if we don’t reach herd immunity? Dr William Petri is a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Virginia who helps lead the global program to achieve herd immunity for polio as the chair of the World Health Organization’s Polio Research Committee. He answers questions here about herd immunity and COVID-19.

What is herd immunity?

Herd immunity occurs when there are enough immune people in a population that new infections stop. It means that enough people have achieved immunity to disrupt person-to-person transmission in the community, thereby protecting non-immune people.

Immunity can result from either vaccination or prior infection. Herd immunity may exist globally, as it does with smallpox, or in a country or region. For example, the U.S. and many other countries have achieved herd immunity for polio and measles, even though global herd immunity does not yet exist.

Has herd immunity been achieved globally for other infections?

This has happened only once on a global scale, with the eradication of smallpox in 1980. This was after a decade-long worldwide intensive vaccination campaign.

We also are also approaching global herd immunity for polio. When the Global Polio Eradication Initiative was formed in 1988 there were 125 countries with endemic polio and over 300,000 children paralyzed annually. Today, after 33 years of immunization campaigns, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the only countries with wild polio virus, with only two cases of paralysis due to wild poliovirus this year. So herd immunity can be achieved worldwide, but only through extraordinary efforts with global collaboration.

It seems as though the goal posts for herd immunity keep changing. Why?

Experts estimate that between 60% and 90% of the U.S. population would need to be immune for there to be herd immunity. This wide range is because there are many moving parts that determine what is needed to achieve herd immunity.

Factors influencing whether the target is 60% or 90% include how well vaccination and prior infection prevent not only illness due to COVID-19, but also infection and transmission to others. Additional considerations include the heightened transmissibility of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and the use of measures to interrupt transmission, including face masks and social distancing. Other important factors include the duration of immunity after vaccination or infection, and environmental factors such as seasonality, population sizes and density and heterogeneity within populations in immunity.

What is the biggest barrier to herd immunity in the U.S.?

Two factors could lead to failure to achieve high enough levels of immunity: not every adult receiving the vaccine because of “vaccine hesitancy” and the likely need to vaccinate adolescents and children. The FDA cleared the emergency use of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for adolescents 12 to 15 years of age on May 10, 2021, so that could help. But an added barrier is the constant pressure of reintroduction of infection from other countries where vaccination is not as readily available as in the U.S.

Achieving herd immunity to the extent of totally blocking new infections is therefore, while a laudable goal, not easily achievable. I think that for COVID-19 at this time, it will be possible only with the concerted global effort over years, similar to what led to smallpox eradication.

Why are there ‘vaccine hesitant’ individuals?

People may be vaccine hesitant for several reasons, including lack of confidence in the vaccine, the inconvenience of receiving the vaccine, or complacency – that is, thinking that if they get COVID-19 it will not be severe.

Lack of confidence includes concerns for vaccine safety or skepticism about the health care providers and public health officials administering them. Complacency reflects a personal decision that vaccination is not a priority for that individual because she or he perceives that the infection is not serious or because of competing priorities for time. Convenience issues include the availability and complexity, such as having to get two doses.

Since herd immunity will not be reached, what will our lives look like?

At least into 2022 and likely for much longer, I do not expect there will be herd immunity for COVID-19. What there will be, probably by the end of this summer in the U.S., is a new normalcy. There will be far fewer cases and deaths due to COVID-19, and there will be a removal of social distancing and year-round masking, as evidenced by the CDC’s new guidelines issued May 13, that vaccinated people do not have to wear masks in most places.

But there will be a seasonality to coronavirus infections. That means there will be less in the summer and more in the winter. We’ll also see outbreaks in regions and population subgroups that lack adequate immunity, short-lived lockdowns of cities or regions, new and more transmissible variants and a likely requirement for vaccine booster shots. We cannot let down on the research and development of treatments and new vaccines, as studies show that COVID-19 is here to stay.

Dr William Petri is the chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health at **University of Virginia**, and head of the Infectious Diseases Training Program for graduate students and postdoctoral fellows.

The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.© The Conversation

COVID-19: Biggest AstraZeneca jab maker unlikely to resume major exports 'for at least three months' as it keeps doses for India surge

The halt in exports is a blow to the Covax vaccination programme, which is heavily reliant on supplies from India.


Tuesday 18 May 2021 

Supplies of the AstraZeneca vaccine are being diverted to India's own COVID crisis

The world's biggest maker of the AstraZeneca vaccine is unlikely to resume major exports until at least October as it prioritises doses for India's coronavirus crisis.

The Serum Institute of India (SII) said it hoped to restart exports to the Covax programme and other countries by the end of the year.
Sponsored link

Doses have been saved for India's devastating COVID surge since exports were stopped a month ago.

Some 66 million doses from India have been sold or donated abroad so far - but the country has only vaccinated a tiny proportion of its huge population.

India's health system has been overwhelmed by its current surge

Indian government sources said sizable exports were now unlikely to restart until at least October - a longer delay than expected.

SII had previously expected shipments to get back on track from June.

"It was internally discussed and some countries were asked not to expect export commitments given the current Indian situation," one anonymous Indian government source told Reuters news agency.

It was not stated which countries could be affected.

India's spike in cases has seen a chronic shortage of beds and oxygen, with many people having to source their own drugs and oxygen for relatives on the black market.

Despite being the world's biggest vaccine producer, it has fully vaccinated only about 2.9% of its 1.35 billion population, according to health ministry data.

The SII said in a statement that it had never exported vaccines at the cost of the Indian people

The halt in exports is a blow to the Covax programme to provide jabs to poorer nations

Other vaccine makers outside the country are being urged by the World Health Organisation to help fill the shortfall.

Its director-general, Tedros Ghebreyesus, has warned of "vaccine apartheid" - with wealthy nations surging ahead and poorer ones left struggling with too few doses.

The WHO's Covax programme aims to provide several billion doses to poorer and less developed countries - with more than a billion of those expected from India.

Gavi, the vaccine alliance, said at least 140 million doses from SII that were lined up for Covax by the end of May would now stay in India.

UNICEF's boss also urged G7 countries this week to increase donations to Covax to make up for the dip in supplies from India.

The organisation estimates a shortfall of some 190 million doses by the end of June.

US President Joe Biden said on Monday he would donate at least 20 million doses of the Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson jabs - on top of 60 million AstraZeneca doses already promised.

Play Video - COVID crisis pushes India's hospitals to the brink

Meanwhile, India's COVID spike is still far from over.

Deaths increased by a record 4,329 to nearly 279,000, according to figures released on Tuesday. And an average of 340,000 cases were confirmed each day last week.

However, there are signs of improvement in some areas - particularly the metropolis of Mumbai, where cases have fallen nearly 70% over the last week.

Greenland Arctic ice sheet nears tipping point and there may be no way back

Scientists detect critical threshold in Greenland after century of global warming

As the surface of the ice is exposed to higher temperatures, it leads to more melting, height reductions and accelerated loss of mass. Reuters

The melting of part of an ice sheet in Greenland is nearing tipping point and further environmental damage could follow, researchers said.

Analysis of the Jakobshavn drainage basin revealed that the central-western Greenland ice sheet is reaching a stage from which it cannot recover.

Data indicated that a critical threshold has been reached after a century of accelerated melting.

“We might be seeing the beginning of a large-scale destabilisation, but at the moment we cannot tell, unfortunately,” said Dr Niklas Boers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, one of the two authors of the research.

“So far, the signals we see are only regional, but that might simply be due to the scarcity of accurate and long-term data for other parts of the ice sheet.”

Dr Boers and Martin Rypdal from the Arctic University of Norway concluded that this part of the Greenland ice sheet is losing stability, and is very close to tipping into a state of accelerated melting, PNAS said on Monday.

Should that scenario play out, it will not be possible to save the sheet even if the Arctic warming trend was halted in the coming decades.

An ice sheet can only maintain its size if the loss of mass from melting is replaced by snow falling on to its surface. The warming of the Arctic disrupts that cycle.

As the surface of the ice is exposed to higher temperatures, it leads to more melting, height reductions and accelerated loss of mass.

After a point, this process cannot be reversed because a much colder climate would be needed for the ice sheet to regain its original size.

"We need to monitor the other parts of the Greenland ice sheet more closely, and we urgently need to better understand how different positive and negative feedback might balance each other, to get a better idea of the future evolution of the ice sheet," Dr Boers said.

The work is part of the Tipes project, co-ordinated and led by the University of Copenhagen in Denmark and the Potsdam institute in Germany.


Updated: May 18, 2021

Greenland ice sheet melting may soon pass point of no return, study warns

‘We might be seeing the beginning of a large-scale destabilisation,’ scientist warns

Samuel Osborne@SamuelOsborne93
THE INDEPENDENT UK

The Greenland ice sheet contains enough water to raise global sea level by seven meters - a change which would displace millions of people
(Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Part of the Greenland ice sheet could soon cross the point of no-return after which the rate of melting outpaces the rate of snow fall, scientists have warned.

Scientists analysing arctic data said the situation could soon reach a “tipping point” and warned that they “urgently” need to understand how the effects of melting affect each other.

The Greenland ice sheet contains enough water to raise the global sea level by seven metres, a change which would displace millions of people.

Losing it is expected to add to global warming and disrupt major ocean currents, monsoon belts, rainforests, wind systems and rain patterns around the world.

However, the researchers said their data is not as comprehensive as they would like, meaning they cannot make solid conclusion

Dr Niklas Boers, from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: "We might be seeing the beginning of a large-scale destabilisation but at the moment we cannot tell, unfortunately.

"So far, the signals we see are only regional, but that might simply be due to the scarcity of accurate and long-term data for other parts of the ice sheet."

He explained how an ice sheet can only maintain its size if the loss of mass from melting and calving glaciers is replaced by snow falling onto its surface.

The warming of the Arctic disturbs this mass balance because the snow at the surface often melts away in the warmer summers.

Melting will mostly increase at the lower altitudes, but overall, the ice sheet will shrink from a mass imbalance.

As this happens, a positive feedback mechanism kicks in - meaning as the ice sheet surface lowers, its surface is exposed to higher average temperatures, leading to more melting and the process repeats until the entire ice sheet is gone.

Beyond a critical threshold, researchers say, this process can not be reversed because, with reduced height, a much colder climate would be needed for the ice sheet to regain its original size.

Dr Boers, and his colleague Dr Martin Rypdal from the Arctic University of Norway, have found the data shows that the critical threshold has at least regionally been reached due to the last 100 years of accelerated melting.

They add an increase in melting will possibly be compensated, at least partly, by more snowfall as precipitation patterns over the ice sheet will change due to the changing ice sheet height.

However, if the Greenland ice sheet as a whole moves into accelerated melting there will be severe consequences for the entire planet.

Dr Boers added: "We need to monitor also the other parts of the Greenland ice sheet more closely, and we urgently need to better understand how different positive and negative feedbacks might balance each other, to get a better idea of the future evolution of the ice sheet."

The research has been published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).

Panic as 300-metre-high skyscraper wobbles in China


SEG Plaza in Shenzhen, one of country’s tallest buildings, evacuated after it inexplicably starts shaking


People flee in panic as 300-metre skyscraper wobbles in China – video

Agence France-Presse
Tue 18 May 2021 

One of China’s tallest skyscrapers was evacuated on Tuesday after it began to shake, sending panicked shoppers scampering to safety.

The near 300 metre (980ft) high SEG Plaza in Shenzhen, southern China, inexplicably began to shake at around 1pm, prompting an evacuation of people inside while pedestrians looked on open-mouthed.

The building was closed by 2.40pm, according to local media reports.

Completed in 2000, the tower is home to a major electronics market as well as various offices in the centre of one of China’s fastest-growing cities.

Officials are investigating what caused the tower in the city’s Futian district to wobble, according to a post on the Twitter-like Weibo platform.

“After checking and analysing the data of various earthquake monitoring stations across the city, there was no earthquake in Shenzhen today,” the statement said.

The district said in another statement later on Tuesday that everyone inside had been safely evacuated and that no further movements of the building had been detected.

Experts “found no safety abnormalities in the main structure and surrounding environment of the building”, and the interior and exterior components of the building appeared undamaged, the district said.

Bystander videos published by local media on Weibo showed the skyscraper shaking as hundreds of terrified pedestrians ran away outside.

“SEG has been completely evacuated,” wrote one Weibo user in a caption to a video of hundreds of people milling about on a wide shopping street near the tower.
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The building is named after the semiconductor and electronics manufacturer Shenzhen Electronics Group, whose offices are based in the complex.

It is the 18th tallest tower in Shenzhen, according to the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat skyscraper database.

Chinese authorities last year banned the construction of skyscrapers taller than 500 metres, adding to height restrictions already enforced in some cities such as Beijing.

The new guidelines for architects, urban planners and developers aimed to “highlight Chinese characteristics” and also banned tacky “copycat” buildings modelled after world landmarks.

Five of the world’s tallest skyscrapers are located in China, including the world’s second-tallest building, the Shanghai Tower, which stands at 632 metres.

Shenzhen is a sprawling metropolis in southern China, close to Hong Kong, which has a booming homegrown tech manufacturing scene.

Many Chinese tech giants, including Tencent and Huawei, have chosen the city to host their headquarters.

It is also home to the world’s fourth-tallest skyscraper, the 599-metre Ping An Finance Centre.

Building collapses are not rare in China, where lax building standards and breakneck urbanisation lead to constructions being thrown up in haste.

Last May, a five-storey quarantine hotel in the south-eastern city of Quanzhou collapsed due to shoddy construction, killing 29.

The devastating 2008 Sichuan earthquake caused more than 69,000 deaths and the disaster ignited a storm of public controversy over poorly constructed school buildings – known as “tofu dregs” – which collapsed killing thousands of students.

Caitlyn Jenner’s bid to be California’s next Governator is falling flat


She hopes to repeat Schwarzenegger’s success as a celebrity running to replace the governor. Polls suggest it’s not working

Caitlyn Jenner in February 2020. Jenner has described herself as a ‘compassionate disrupter’ in California’s recall campaign. Photograph: Gregg DeGuire/Getty Images

Andrew Gumbel in Los Angeles

THE GUARDIAN
Thu 13 May 2021 

Caitlyn Jenner hopes to pull the same trick as Arnold Schwarzenegger: snatching away the governorship of bluer-than-blue California in the chaos of a free-wheeling recall election. So far, though, the voters are not buying it.

The Olympic track star and Kardashian step-parent has not lacked for media coverage since announcing her campaign last month. In the past week alone, she has been interviewed by the Los Angeles Times, CNN, and Fox News. She’s put out an introductory campaign ad positioning herself not as a Trump true believer – as many Republican candidates feel compelled to be these days – but as a “compassionate disrupter” who will shake the political establishment out of its complacency, much as Schwarzenegger promised to do in 2003.

Yet a new poll this week shows Jenner gaining little traction. Just 6% of respondents said they would vote for her, putting her far behind other Republican contenders including Kevin Faulconer, a former San Diego mayor, and John Cox, a businessman and perennial GOP candidate who in 2018 was trounced by the man they all want to unseat, Governor Gavin Newsom.


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Schwarzenegger, by contrast, was the clear frontrunner from the moment he stepped into the 2003 recall, using appearances on Jay Leno’s Tonight Show and on Oprah to build tension around the question of whether he would run at all and deploying the considerable communications skills he’d built up over decades of celebrity interviews.

Jenner’s media savvy is not quite so evident. She told Sean Hannity on Fox News that she wanted to “secure” the border wall promoted by Donald Trump. But when asked in a subsequent interview how she would do that when the border was not within the state government’s control, she changed the subject.

In voicing her frustration with California’s large homeless population, she created an unflattering Twitter sensation by talking about a fellow private plane owner who “can’t take it any more”.

She alienated many transgender Californians and their supporters by saying, more than once, that she opposes trans girls competing on school sport teams that match their gender. And, on Tuesday, she told Dana Bash on CNN that she hadn’t found anything to get excited about in the 2020 general election and went golfing instead of going to the polls.
  

Arnold Schwarzenegger talks to reporters as he leaves the Los Angeles county registrar’s office carrying the papers needed to run for governor, in 2003. Photograph: Lee Celano/AP


The statement raised questions about her interest in California policy issues, in a year when high-profile topics such as cash bail, the rights of ride-share drivers, rent control and affirmative action were on the ballot. It also turned out to be untrue, as revealed when Politico dug up documentation showing that she had voted last November after all.

With Jenner apparently unaware that who votes and who does not is a matter of public record in California, a former Republican campaign operative, Jack Pitney, told Politico: “This is not someone who is serious about public life.”

Jenner’s struggles are about the timing of her celebrity candidacy as much as the content. California voters ended up deeply disenchanted with Schwarzenegger’s governorship, even if he remains personally popular, and have demonstrated in every election since 2016 that they found Trump’s own celebrity “disruptor” campaigns little short of abhorrent. (Trump lost California by about 30 points in 2016 and in 2020.)


The recall circus is back: Schwarzenegger’s 2003 win and the fight to oust Gavin Newsom

They are also far from sold on recalling Newsom. The governor has taken his share of bipartisan criticism over his handling of the pandemic, and he provoked widespread outrage when he was caught dining at Napa Valley’s premier restaurant, the French Laundry, in violation of his own lockdown rules last November. But the threat of the recall has spurred him into moving much faster to reopen the economy and the state’s public schools. Now that the pandemic is receding and 36% of Californians are fully vaccinated, his approval ratings are back above 50%. Almost every poll predicts he will survive the recall challenge.

A candidate of Schwarzenegger’s charisma could potentially upend that support between now and election day, expected in October or November. But Jenner appears to have just a small political base . Only 13% of Republicans back her, according to this week’s poll, and she has little crossover appeal to Democrats. Her poor initial showing is likely to lead to problems with fundraising and courting the endorsement of Republican leaders in and out of California.

For now, the “Caitlyn for California” wine glasses are going for $35 a pair. It’s unclear, though, if anyone is buying.