Climate change lowers nutrition, increases toxicity at base of food web

Research looks at warming, browning effects on freshwater systems

Peer-Reviewed Publication

DARTMOUTH COLLEGE

 

IMAGE: CONTROLLED OUTDOOR ENVIRONMENTS KNOWN AS “MESOCOSMS” WERE USED TO STUDY CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NUTRITION AND TOXICITY ON THE AQUATIC FOOD WEB. view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO CREDIT: PIANPIAN WU

HANOVER, N.H. – October 25, 2021 – Climate change impacts on freshwater systems can lower nutrition and increase toxicity at the base of the food web, according to research from Dartmouth College and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.

The research, published in Scientific Reports, focused on the effects of warming water temperatures and browning—a discoloration of water caused by increased dissolved organic matter—using controlled outdoor environments known as mesocosms.

“Climate change scenarios predict increases in temperature and organic matter supply from land to water,” said Pianpian Wu, a postdoctoral fellow at Dartmouth and lead author of the study. “For the first time, we used manipulated mesocosm systems to test the effects of warming and browning.”

Under the expected climate scenario of more warming, changing precipitation patterns, and higher levels of dissolved organic matter, the study looked at the fate of nutritious polyunsaturated fatty acids and toxic methylmercury in the food chain.

The research found that a combination of warmer, browner water resulted in the higher transfer of methylmercury from water to phytoplankton at the base of food web. Lower concentrations of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids in phytoplankton were also observed.

Long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids—such as omega-3 and omega-6—support the growth and survival of animal and plant life by providing energy and by regulating immune systems. Methylmercury is a form of mercury that is easily absorbed by living organisms and acts a potent neurotoxin.

“The reduction of polyunsaturated acids at the end of the mesocosm experiment with both warming and browning effects was concerning,” said Wu, who began the research as a PhD candidate at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.

Phytoplankton are the main suppliers of polyunsaturated fatty acids in aquatic ecosystems. According to the study, the less nutritious phytoplankton that result from browning and warmer water cause higher-level organisms—such as zooplankton, fish, other wildlife, and humans—to be exposed to more methylmercury as they consume more to achieve fatty acid quotas. 

“This study shows that the food quality at the base of aquatic food webs deteriorates with climate change,” said Kevin Bishop, professor at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences and the senior researcher of the study. “The research is important because it places food web investigations within the context of active global change processes.”

While previous research on browning and warming has been conducted in natural environments, this is the only study to rely entirely on controlled mesocosm environments.

The researchers used 24 thermally insulated plastic cylinders to test the effects of various levels of warming and browning under four different scenarios, including a reference scenario without any weathering effect. The mesocosms were controlled at subalpine conditions that are highly prone to climate change effects and relatively poor in dissolved organic matter.

“The use of mesocosms to investigate questions related to ecosystem effects of climate change is particularly important,” said Celia Chen, research professor at Dartmouth and a co-author of the study. “The effects of factors such as temperature and browning can be tested individually and in combination while controlling other environmental conditions. Mesocosms also eliminate the need to travel long distances for field investigations.”

The study was conducted at the WasserCluster Lunz research facility outside of Vienna using lake water from Lunzer See in Lower Austria.

According to the research team, the findings point to the importance of factoring consumption levels in addition to concentration levels when looking at the quality of the food web in freshwater systems.

Martin Kainz and Katharina Winter, from WasserCluster Lunz- Biologische Station; Fernando Valdés, Uppsala University; Siwen Zheng and Rui Wang, Tongji University; and Brian Branfireun, Western University all served as co-authors of the study.

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JOURNAL

Scientific Reports

DOI

10.1038/s41598-021-95742-9 

ARTICLE TITLE

Elevated temperature and browning increase dietary methylmercury, but decrease essential fatty acids at the base of lake food webs

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

19-Aug-2021

Emergence of a novel reassortant avian influenza virus (H10N3) in Eastern China

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

 

IMAGE: FIGURE. BIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NOVEL REASSORTANT H10N3 VIRUSES ISOLATED FROM CHICKEN IN EASTERN CHINA. 1) THE NOVEL REASSORTANT H10N3 ISOLATES BOUND TO BOTH AVIAN-TYPE (SAΑ-2,3-GAL) AND HUMAN-TYPE (SAΑ-2,6-GAL) RECEPTORS; 2) THE NOVEL REASSORTANT H10N3 AIVS WERE HIGHLY PATHOGENIC IN MICE; 3) THE NOVEL REASSORTANT H10N3 ISOLATES WERE TRANSMISSIBLE AMONG GUINEA PIGS VIA DIRECT CONTACT AND RESPIRATORY DROPLETS. view more 

CREDIT: ©SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

The first known H10 avian influenza virus (AIV) was isolated from chicken in Germany in 1949 and has undergone multiple reassortment events during decades of circulation. Many H10-subtype AIVs, including H10N1, H10N2, H10N3, H10N6, H10N7, H10N8, and H10N9, are widely distributed in domestic and wild birds. H10-subtype AIVs circulate not only in poultry but have spread to mammals such as minks, pigs, and seals. Transmission of H10-subtype AIVs from birds to humans is uncommon but has occurred. The first reported human infections with a H10 subtype influenza virus occurred in Egypt in 2004. In subsequent surveillance, cross-species transmission of subtype H10 influenza virus has been detected occasionally.  Remarkably, three patients were reportedly infected with the H10N8 subtype influenza virus in China in 2013, two of the infected patients died.  The National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China confirmed the first case of human infection with H10N3 subtype AIV in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, in April 2021. The epidemiological investigation did not find that the patient had a clear history of exposure to the live poultry market, and the H10N3 virus of the same genotype was not isolated locally, so the source of infection could not be determined. This poses a great challenge to prevent the recurrence of human infections with H10N3.

“Tracing the source of the human-origin H10N3 virus and systematic analysis of its biological characteristics are the prerequisites for preventing H10N3 from re-infecting humans.” said associate professor, Xiaoquan, Wang, the co-corresponding author of this work.

During surveillance activities for avian influenza in live bird markets (LBMs) in Eastern China from 2019 to 2021, the research team isolated several avian H10N3 viruses, and these strains were highly homologous to human-origin H10N3 strain. In this study, two avian-origin H10N3 viruses were first isolated from Jiangsu Province in December 2019, indicating that this type of virus has been silently circulating in poultry for at least 17 months before causing human infections. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the HA and NA sequences, which belonged to the Eurasian lineage, were derived from H10N8 and H7N3, respectively, and were prevalent in Zhejiang province; whereas the internal genes of H10N3 were all derived from H9N2 AIVs.  Interestingly, H9N2 AIVs have become dominant in LBMs in China in recent years and donate internal genes for human isolates such as H7N9, H10N8 and H5N6. The first species barrier is host cell attachment. AIVs preferentially bind to SAα-2,3-Gal, whereas human-adapted viruses have been shown to favor SAα-2,6-Gal. These H10N3 strains presented affinities to both avian-type and human-type receptors. AIVs can transmit to new species, but without long-term adaptation in mammals, most AIVs show low pathogenicity in mice. In this study, the two novel reassortant H10N3 isolates were highly pathogenic in mice and replicated efficiently in multiple organs without prior adaptation. AIV acquires the ability for continuous transmission between humans was the key to a pandemic. This study showed that infected guinea pig models could shed high virus loads through the respiratory tract and could transmit the virus via both direct contact and aerosols.

This finding illustrates that the novel reassortant H10N3 isolates exhibited comparable binding affinity for both avian-type and human-type receptors and lethal infection of mice. Furthermore, it displayed efficient transmission via both direct contact and aerosolization in guinea pig models, suggesting that the novel reassortant H10N3 subtype AIV poses a high threat to public health.

“LPAIVs usually cause no explicit symptoms in poultry; thus, human outbreaks may occur when poultry infections go unnoticed. Therefore, continuous surveillance for the emergence and evolution of novel AIVs in poultry and evaluation of their potential threat to public health is necessary.” said Prof. Xiufan Liu, the corresponding author of this work.

 

This work was supported by grants from the National Key Research and Development Project of China: 2016YFD0500202-1; National Natural Science Foundation of China: 31772755; National Key Research and Development Project of China: 2016YFD0501601; Jiangsu Provincial Natural Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars (BK20170068); Earmarked Fund For China Agriculture Research System: CARS-40; Open Project Program of Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Zoonosis: R1808; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD).

 

See the article:

Liu, K., Ding, P., Pei, Y., Gao, R., Han, W., Zheng, H., Ji, Z., Cai, M., Gu, J., Li, X., et al. (2021). Emergence of a novel reassortant avian influenza virus (H10N3) in Eastern China with high pathogenicity and respiratory droplet transmissibility to mammals. Sci China Life Sci 64, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11427-020-1981-5.

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JOURNAL

Science China Life Sciences

DOI

10.1007/s11427-020-1981-5 

Permanent Twitter ban of extremist influencers can detoxify social media

Removing extremist public figures from social media reduces the spread of offensive ideas and toxicity

Peer-Reviewed Publication

RUTGERS UNIVERSITY

Banning right-wing extremists from social media can reduce the spread of anti-social ideas and conspiracy theories, according to Rutgers-led research.

The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction, examined what happens after individual influencers with large followings are banned from social media and no longer have a platform to promote their extreme views.

“Removing someone from a platform is an extreme step that should not be taken lightly,” said lead author Shagun Jhaver, an assistant professor in the Department of Library and Information Science at Rutgers-New Brunswick. “However, platforms have rules for appropriate behavior, and when a site member breaks those rules repeatedly, the platform needs to take action. The toxicity created by influencers and their supporters who promote offensive speech can also silence and harm vulnerable user groups, making it crucial for platforms to attend to such influencers’ activities.”

The study examined three extremist influencers banned on Twitter: Alex Jones, an American radio host and political extremist who gained notoriety for promoting conspiracy theories; Milo Yiannopoulos, a British political commentator who became known for ridiculing Islam, feminism and social justice; and Owen Benjamin, an American “alt-right” actor, comedian and political commentator who promoted anti-Semitic conspiracy theories and anti-LGBT views.

The researchers analyzed more than 49 million tweets referencing the banned influencers, tweets referencing their offensive ideas, and all tweets posted by their supporters six months before and after they were removed from the platform.

Once they were denied social media access, posts referencing each influencer declined by almost 92 percent. The number of existing users and new users specifically tweeting about each influencer also shrank significantly, by about 90 percent.

The bans also significantly reduced the overall posting activity and toxicity levels of supporters. On average, the number of tweets posted by supporters reduced by 12.59 percent and their toxicity declined by 5.84 percent. This suggests that de-platforming can improve the content quality on the platform.

Researchers say the study indicates that banning those with extremist views who are promoting conspiracy theories minimizes contentious conversations by their supporters. The data from the study will help social media platforms make more informed decisions about whether and when to implement bans, which has been on the rise as a moderation strategy.

“Many people continue to raise concerns about the financial benefits from advertising dollars tied to content that spreads misinformation or conducts harassment,” said Jhaver. “This is an opportunity for platforms to clarify their commitment to its users and de-platform when appropriate. Judiciously using this strategy will allow platforms to address the problem of online radicalization, a worthy goal to pursue even if it leads to short-term loss in advertising dollars.”

Future research is needed to examine the interactions between online speech, de-platforming and radicalization and to identify when it would be appropriate to ban users from social media sites.

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JOURNAL

Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction

DOI

10.1145/3479525 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Deplatforming as a Moderation Strategy on Twitter

 

Hidden costs of global illegal wildlife trade

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE

PrintEmail App

 

IMAGE: A VENDOR DISPLAY FEATURING A SULCATA TORTOISE AT A REPTILE TRADE CONVENTION IN FLORIDA, USA. view more 

CREDIT: SUPPLIED BY ADAM TOOMES, THE UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE.

An international team of experts, including researchers from the University of Adelaide, has highlighted that the illegal and unsustainable global wildlife trade has bigger ramifications on our everyday lives than you might think.

In a paper published in Biological Conservation, the team of researchers investigated the many ways in which the trade negatively impacts species, ecosystems, and society – including people’s health, crime and our economies.

Co-author, Dr Oliver Stringham from the University of Adelaide said: “The Illegal or unsustainable wildlife trade is growing at a global level and the impacts are far-reaching.

“The trade in wild vertebrates alone is estimated to involve a quarter of terrestrial (land) species, while the trade in ocean life, invertebrates, plants, and fungi remains considerably overlooked and poorly documented.

“As a threat to targeted species, the trade represents one of the five major drivers of biodiversity loss and extinction at global scale.

“But these effects are just the tip of the iceberg.”

In their paper the researchers also describe the incidental effects of wildlife harvesting on other species. These include disrupted interactions between species and ecosystem structure, altering species composition, functioning, and services – such as seed dispersal, pollination and carbon storage. Many species also provide habitat for others and their loss results in habitat depletion.

The trade can further result in deliberate or accidental introduction of predators and pests in previously predator-free areas. This has an estimated cost of US$162.7 billion a year, and can cause havoc on the native systems through the spread of disease, and in extreme cases cause the extinction of native species.

The paper also discusses impacts for human health.

Dr Stringham said: “Two-thirds of emerging infectious disease outbreaks affecting humans, many leading to pandemics, have zoonotic origins, and of these, the majority originate in wildlife.”

There are also costs to eco-tourism. Deforestation of pristine areas can reduce space for recreation, and the global estimated net loss in ecosystem services, mainly due to logging and consequent habitat loss is estimated at US$20.2 trillion.

According to co-author of the paper PhD candidate Adam Toomes from the University of Adelaide, the legal yet unregulated trade can be just as detrimental as its illegal counterpart.

“A large diversity of species are not protected by international regulation and are traded without any formal documentation process, making it incredibly difficult to evaluate the associated costs and benefits,” he said.

“The trade is also highly dynamic, meaning that, in extreme cases, demand for a previously low-risk species can increase rapidly, outpacing relevant legislation.”

In a follow-up paper, the researchers outline a number of approaches and tools available to curb the trade. These include bans, quotas, protected areas, certification, captive-breeding and propagation, education and awareness.

Mr Toomes said, while it is clear urgent action is needed to close key knowledge gaps and regulate wildlife trade more stringently, policy and enforcement also needs to consider the livelihoods and communities depending on trade, to ensure a balance between these often-opposing views.

“Trade regulations that do not take this into consideration could increase vulnerability and poverty in certain areas that depend on it for food and income,” he said.

“With large differences in legislation, cultural drivers of trade and availability of species, there is no one-size fits all strategy. Each unique context warrants a variety of disciplines and actors dedicated to ensuring trade occurs sustainably.”

CAPTION

A vendor display featuring several different breeding morphs of ball pythons at a reptile trade convention in Florida, USA.

CREDIT

Supplied by Adam Toomes, the University of Adelaide

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JOURNAL

Biological Conservation

DOI

10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109341 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Content analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Scientists' warning to humanity on illegal or unsustainable wildlife trade

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

8-Oct-2021

 

The mess from global climate change: Overcoming the stumbling blocks for effective action

Time is up! We need to move into the action!

Book Announcement

WORLD SCIENTIFIC

 

IMAGE: COVER FOR "BUYING TIME FOR CLIMATE ACTION: EXPLORING WAYS AROUND STUMBLING BLOCKS" view more 

CREDIT: WORLD SCIENTIFIC

The 2021 IPCC report made one thing crystal clear — global climate change is here to stay. Time is up. We need to act or climate change will lead to inconceivable suffering by billions of people.

Buying Time for Climate Action is the combined narrative of world class experts, all committed to help humanity survive the largely self-induced destructive course. Urgent action is needed to change that course. Determining which actions will lead to helpful change requires insights into the stumbling blocks that will always emerge when change is planned, resulting in lost time. The experts who contributed to this volume, through their networks, wisdom and creativity, have largely concluded that to cope with the stumbling blocks, we should focus on grassroots initiatives.

The book is essential reading for anyone committed to helping prevent an existential disaster to humanity, and move exciting plans into effective action.

Buying Time for Climate Action: Exploring Ways around Stumbling Blocks retails for US$18 / £15 (paperback) and US$25 / £20 (hardcover) and is also available in electronic formats. To order or know more about the book, visit http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/12641. 

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About World Scientific Publishing Co.

World Scientific Publishing is a leading international independent publisher of books and journals for the scholarly, research and professional communities. World Scientific collaborates with prestigious organisations like the Nobel Foundation and US National Academies Press to bring high quality academic and professional content to researchers and academics worldwide. The company publishes about 600 books and over 140 journals in various fields annually. To find out more about World Scientific, please visit www.worldscientific.com.

For more information, contact WSPC Communications at communications@wspc.com.

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DOI

10.1142/12641 

Corporate influence linked to slow implementation of public health policies globally

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KAROLINSKA INSTITUTET

Implementation of WHO’s recommended public health policies on alcohol, unhealthy foods and tobacco has been slow globally, according to a study led by researchers at Karolinska Institutet and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, published in the journal The Lancet Global Health. The study found particularly low implementation in poor, less democratic countries and where corporations had more influence for example through corruption and political favoritism.

In 2013, the World Health Organization’s 194 member states endorsed a list of so-called ‘Best Buy’ policies to combat non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as heart disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic lung disease.

The list includes 19 interventions targeted at preventing, monitoring and treating NCDs, with a particular focus on harmful products such as tobacco, alcohol and unhealthy foods. These policies could play a vital role in achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal target of cutting premature NCD mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030.

In the study, the researchers examined to what extent WHO member states had implemented the policies and analyzed if national level indicators correlated with the degree of implementation. The analysis is based on three so-called NCD progress monitor reports, where the degree of implementation of NCD policies is reported, as well as a framework of national indicators developed by the study authors.

The researchers note that on average, only a third of the public health policies had been fully implemented in 2020. When awarding a half-point for partially implemented policies, the average implementation score was 47 percent in 2020, up from 45.9 percent in 2017 and 39.0 percent in 2015.

Low scores for alcohol, junk food and tobacco measures

Implementation was lowest for policies targeting alcohol, unhealthy foods and tobacco. For example, around two-thirds of countries had not implemented WHO recommended restrictions on marketing of unhealthy food to children in 2020. Implementation of measures targeting alcohol use, including restrictions on sales and advertising, even eased between 2015 and 2020, while for measures targeting tobacco, it improved somewhat. The most widely implemented interventions were clinical guidelines and national action plans and targets to combat NCDs.

“Our study found slow overall implementation of WHO’s recommended NCD policies, especially when it comes to measures targeted at risk factors such as smoking, alcohol and unhealthy foods,” says corresponding author Hampus Holmer, researcher at the Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, who conducted the study in collaboration with Luke Allen, research fellow at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, U.K., and Professor Simon Wigley at Bilkent University, Turkey.

“This is worrying since non-communicable disease is already the most common cause of death, including premature death, in the world today. Several of these diseases are also linked to an increased risk of dying of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 or tuberculosis,” Hampus Holmer adds.

Progress was especially slow in low-income countries and countries with less democracy. At the bottom of the list are three countries in West Africa—Equatorial Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone—with one to two partially implemented policies. Norway and Turkey are at the top of the list with 90 percent fully or partially implemented measures.

Correlation with corporate influence

The researchers found that the positive relationship between democracy on implementation was cancelled out in countries with above-average levels of corporate influence. Corporate influence was measured using an existing index with 25 metrics of corporate power, including corruption, bribery, government official favoritism, foreign investments and foreign contributions to political campaigns. Lobbying was not part of the assessment due to a lack of reliable data for many countries, which is a limitation of the study.

“Our analysis shows that corporate political influence is associated with the degree of implementation – the more influence corporations had, the lower the degree of implementation of preventive public health measures,” says Luke Allen, the first author of the study. “While we cannot establish causality, our findings indicate that more work is needed to support particularly low-income countries in introducing effective NCD policies, especially around commercial determinants.”

The researchers also found a significant positive correlation between the proportion of deaths due to NCDs and policy implementation, suggesting that policymakers are more prone to act as the burden of NCDs grows. However, delayed action could be problematic as the impact of prevention may take years to have its full effect.

Funding was provided by the National Institutes for Health Research, the Swedish Research Council, the Fulbright Commission, and the Swedish Society of Medicine. No conflicts of interest were reported.

Publication: “Implementation of non-communicable disease policies from 2015 to 2020: a geopolitical analysis of 194 countries.” Luke N Allen, Simon Wigley, Hampus Holmer, The Lancet Global Health, online Oct. 19, 2021, doi: 10.1016/PIIS2214-109X(21)00359-4

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JOURNAL

The Lancet Global Health

DOI

10.1016/PIIS2214-109X(21)00359-4 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

“Implementation of non-communicable disease policies from 2015 to 2020: a geopolitical analysis of 194 countries"

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

19-Oct-2021

Europeans want climate action but show little appetite for radical lifestyle change -– new polling

Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

Europeans want urgent action on climate change but remain committed meat-eaters and question policy proposals such as banning the sale of new petrol vehicles after 2030, according to a new poll from the YouGov-Cambridge Centre for Public Opinion Research that surveyed environmental attitudes in seven European countries, including the UK.

The results – part of a collaboration with Cambridge Zero, the University’s climate initiative – also found that as the UK prepares to host crucial climate talks in Glasgow next month, barely a third of British adults have noticed that the event is taking place.

According to polling conducted last week, just 31% of British adults have read or heard much about COP26 so far, compared with 63% answering to the contrary – either “not very much” or “nothing at all”. These numbers have also barely changed in two months.

When the same question was asked as part of the main, international fieldwork in August, results showed a slightly larger difference of 28% versus 67%. Predictably, the other populations showed even less impact, such as 17% versus 75% in France, 9% versus 84% in Sweden and 7% versus 83% in Germany.

However, the poll indicates that while survey participants may not be following COP26, a significant majority of the 9,000 people polled across the UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Sweden, Spain and Italy strongly support many of the aims of the talks, at least in principle.

Dr Emily Shuckburgh OBE, Director of Cambridge Zero, said:
“As the impacts of climate change are starting to be felt everywhere, COP26 should be seen as a vital summit where the world must deliver immediate and meaningful climate action. But the bad news is that most people have still barely noticed that the world leaders who can actually take the actions needed will be in our own backyard.”

Dr Joel Rogers de Waal, Academic Director of YouGov, said:
“The good news for COP26 organisers is that in every country surveyed, the vast majority are on board with the programme, at least in principle. In each national sample, most agreed that climate change is a genuine phenomenon and a considerable concern, and rejected the idea that its seriousness is being exaggerated.”

Beyond overall terms of debate, however, the same findings also indicate both strong support for certain environmental agendas – the polling showed widespread enthusiasm for “rewilding”, with 70% support in Britain and 79% in Spain for programmes to restore parts of the country to their natural state – and some obvious challenges.

However, when it comes to making lifestyle changes, participants were less enthusiastic. Despite the clear environmental benefits of eating less meat, all seven countries showed majorities who eat meat at least several times a week. Within the meat-eating section of respondents, only a small proportion claimed to have reduced their meat consumption over the past 12 months, and of those, generally around half or under had done so for environmental reasons.

Attitudes towards environmental action at the policy level are a mixed bag. In nearly every country, large portions support the policy of greatly expanding government investment in renewable energy, such as solar, wind and tidal power, including majorities or pluralities in Britain (66%), Germany (52%), Denmark (65%), Sweden (47%), Spain (74%) and Italy (69%). Only France was an outlier in this respect, where just 24% said the same.

But in other areas, public support is tentative and variable, such as bans on the sale of petrol or diesel cars and vans, or a frequent flyer tax.

Poll results also give a sense of public attitudes towards the new environmental activism. Additional polling for the project at the start of September asked British voters two questions regarding Extinction Rebellion – one about methods, the other about message. On the former, a 53% majority said the methods used by the protest group generally go too far, compared with only 10% saying they got the balance about right and 7% saying they didn’t go far enough. On the latter, however, only 38% thought the environmental warnings of Extinction Rebellion generally overstate the situation, next to a combined 41% saying that they describe the situation about right (32%) or even understate it (9%).

“The most powerful protest movements are those that ultimately manage to inspire and co-opt the wider population, creating a sense of social momentum that becomes impossible for the political centre to ignore,” said de Waal. “By contrast, acts of civic vandalism that specifically target the basic necessities of daily life are more likely to do the opposite, since by infuriating the public, they only make it easier for governments to ignore the message behind the action.”

All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample sizes were: Britain= 1767; Germany=2108; France=1035; Denmark=1009; Sweden=1015; Spain=1050; Italy=1000. Fieldwork was undertaken online between 6th – 23rd August, 2021. For each country, the figures have been weighted and are representative of the adult population aged 18+.

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THE LANCET: Urgent action needed to integrate climate change mitigation into COVID-19 recovery plans to address global inequities in health and build a sustainable future

Peer-Reviewed Publication

THE LANCET

NEWS RELEASE 20-OCT-2021

Peer-reviewed/Review

• The Lancet Countdown’s sixth annual report tracks 44 indicators of health impacts that are directly linked to climate change - and shows key trends are getting worse and exacerbating already existing health and social inequities.
• Global leaders have the opportunity to put actions and policies in place that will address these stark inequities, improve health, and deliver economic and environmentally sustainable COVID-19 recovery plans.
• Countries must commit to more ambitious climate plans that incorporate health equity and societal support to ensure a more suitable future for all.  

The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future outlines the growing risks to health and climate. These risks exacerbate the health hazards already faced by many, particularly in communities exposed to food and water insecurity, heatwaves, and the spread of infectious diseases. The authors call for urgent, globally coordinated action to mitigate climate change and build a healthier, sustainable future for all.

• Many current COVID-19 recovery plans are not compatible with the Paris Agreement and will therefore have long-term health implications.
• Despite the detrimental climate effects, the world continues to subsidise fossil fuels. In 2018, 65 out of the 84 countries analysed by Lancet Countdown researchers had net-negative carbon prices equivalent to an overall subsidising of fossil fuels. The median value of the subsidy was US$1 billion, with some countries providing net subsidies to fossil fuels in the tens of billions of dollars each year. The 84 countries surveyed are responsible for around 92% of global CO2 emissions.
• In 2020, adults over 65 were affected by 3.1 billion more days of heatwave exposure than in the 1986–2005 baseline average. Chinese, Indian, American, Japanese, and Indonesian senior citizens were the most affected.
• Climate change and its drivers are creating ideal conditions for infectious disease transmission, potentially undoing decades of progress to control diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya, Zika, malaria, and cholera.
• Healthcare systems are ill-prepared for current and future climate-induced health shocks. Only 45 (49%) of 91 countries in 2021 reported having carried out a climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessment.

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need for increased international co-operation in the face of global crises. Politicians must show leadership by moving beyond rhetoric and take action at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), which will start on Sunday 31 October 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland. Carbon emissions must be rapidly reduced to improve health and to provide a more equitable, sustainable future.

 

As countries commit trillions of dollars to restart their economies in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the report urges political leaders and policy makers to use this public spending to reduce inequities. Promoting a green recovery by creating new and green jobs, and safeguarding health, will build healthier populations now and in the future.   

A fossil-fuel driven recovery – which includes large subsidies for oil, gas and coal and limited financial support for clean energy – could potentially meet narrow and near-term economic targets, but may then push the world irrevocably off course and make it impossible to meet the maximum 1.5C of warming as outlined in the Paris Agreement. This has a toll on human health, hardest hitting to those people living in low income countries, whose populations have made the smallest relative contribution to climate change. As governments turn from emergency spending to long term post-pandemic recovery it is vital that more of these funds are spent in ways that reduce climate change, such as promoting jobs in zero-carbon energy, where investment lags behind what is necessary to keep within 1.5C of warming.

The Lancet Countdown report shows that many countries are under-prepared for the health effects of climate change. In a 2021 World Health Organisation survey of health and climate change, only 45 of 91 countries surveyed (49%) say they have a national health and climate change plan or strategy. Only 8 out of those 45 countries in the analysis reported that their assessments of the effects of climate change on their citizens’ health had influenced the allocation of human and financial resources. The survey found 69% of countries in this analysis reported insufficient financing was a barrier to implementing these plans.

“Climate change is here and we’re already seeing it damaging human health across the world,” said Prof Anthony Costello, Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown.   

“As the COVID-19 crisis continues, every country is facing some aspect of the climate crisis too. The 2021 report shows that populations of 134 countries have experienced an increase in exposure to wildfires. Millions of farmers and construction workers could have lost income because on some days it’s just too hot for them to work. Drought is more widespread than ever before. The Lancet Countdown’s report has over 40 indicators and far too many of them are flashing red.   

“But the good news is that the huge efforts countries are making to kick-start their economies after the pandemic can be orientated towards responding to climate change and COVID-19 simultaneously. We have a choice. The recovery from COVID-19 can be a green recovery that puts us on the path of improving human health and reducing inequities, or it can be a business-as-usual recovery that puts us all at risk.” [1]

The Lancet Countdown report represents the consensus of leading researchers from 38 academic institutions and UN agencies. The 44 indicators in the 2021 report expose an unabated rise in the health impacts of climate change: 

• The potential for outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya and Zika is increasing most rapidly in countries with a very high human development index, including European countries. Suitability for malaria infections is increasing in cooler highland areas of countries with a low human development index. Coasts around northern Europe and the US are becoming more conducive to bacteria which produce gastroenteritis, severe wound infections, and sepsis. In resource-limited countries the same dynamic is putting decades of progress towards controlling or eliminating these diseases at risk.
• There are 569.6 million people living less than five metres above current sea levels, who could face rising risks of increased flooding, more intense storms, and soil and water salinification. Many of these people could be forced to permanently leave these areas and migrate further inland.

Maria Romanello, lead author of the Lancet Countdown report, said:

“This is our sixth report tracking progress on health and climate change and unfortunately we are still not seeing the accelerated change we need. At best the trends in emissions, renewable energy and tackling pollution have improved only very slightly. This year we saw people suffering intense heatwaves, deadly floods and wildfires. These are grim warnings that for every day that we delay our response to climate change, the situation gets more critical. 

“Governments are spending trillions of dollars on the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. This gives us an opportunity to take a safer, healthier, low carbon path, but we have yet to do so. Less than one dollar in five being spent on the COVID-19 recovery is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the overall impact is likely to be negative. We are recovering from a health crisis in a way that’s putting our health at risk.  

“It’s time to realise that no one is safe from the effects of climate change. As we recover from COVID-19 we still have the time to take a different path and create a healthier future for us all.” [1]

A Lancet Editorial adds, “The world is watching COP26—widely perceived as the last and best opportunity to reset the path to global net zero carbon emissions by 2050—and public interest in climate change is higher than ever, in part due to global youth activism and engagement…This year’s indicators give a bleak outlook: global inequities are increasing, and the direction of travel is worsening all health outcomes. Health services in low-income and middle-income countries are in particularly urgent need of strengthening…However, the future is not necessarily hopeless…Succumbing to the climate emergency is not inevitable.”

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Key report findings

Just as the world is failing to deliver an equitable supply of COVID-19 vaccines, the data in this report exposes similar inequities in the global response to climate change. In general, it is the countries lowest on the human development index that are often least responsible for rising greenhouse gas emissions and are lagging behind in climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts and in realising the associated health benefits of accelerated decarbonisation.

• In 2020, up to of 19% of the global land surface was affected by extreme drought in any given month, a value that had not exceeded 13% between 1950 and 1999.
• Climate change is driving an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events, threatening water security, sanitation, and food productivity, and increasing the risk of wildfires and exposure to pollutants. The five years with the most areas affected by extreme drought have all occurred since 2015. The Horn of Africa, a region impacted by recurrent extreme droughts and food insecurity, was one of the most affected areas in 2020.
• Climate change threatens to accelerate food insecurity, which affected 2 billion people in 2019. Rising temperatures shorten the time in which plants reach maturity, meaning smaller yields and an increased strain on our food systems. Maize has seen a 6% decrease in crop yield potential, wheat a 3% decrease and rice a 1.8% decrease, compared to 1981 – 2010 levels.
• Average sea surface temperature has increased in the territorial waters of nearly 70% (95 out of 136) of coastal countries analysed, compared to 2003-2005. This reflects an increasing threat to their marine food security. Worldwide 3.3 billion people depend on marine food.
• In 2021 the World Health Organisation found just over half of countries that answered to the Health and Climate Change Global Survey (37 out of 70) had a national health and climate change strategy in place, a similar proportion to 2018. Nearly three-quarters of countries surveyed said finances prevented them developing such a strategy, with others citing a lack of skilled people, being restricted by COVID-19 and lacking research and evidence.
• Globally, climate change adaptation funding directed at health systems represents just 0.3% of total climate change adaptation funding.

NOTES TO EDITORS

This study was funded by Wellcome Trust. A full list of researchers and institutions is available in the paper.

The labels have been added to this press release as part of a project run by the Academy of Medical Sciences seeking to improve the communication of evidence. For more information, please see: http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AMS-press-release-labelling-system-GUIDANCE.pdf if you have any questions or feedback, please contact The Lancet press office pressoffice@lancet.com

[1] Quote direct from author and cannot be found in the text of the Article.

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JOURNAL

The Lancet

DOI

10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01787-6 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

20-Oct-2021