Thursday, June 30, 2022

Christian fascism is right here, right now: After Roe, can we finally see it?

The Supreme Court is relentlessly fueling the rise of fascism: Roe v. Wade is only the most visible example


By CHRIS HEDGES
PUBLISHED JUNE 28, 2022 5:30AM (EDT
Members of the right-wing group, the Patriot Front, as they prepare to march with anti-abortion activists during the 49th annual March for Life along Constitution Ave. on Friday, Jan. 21, 2022 in Washington, DC.
 (Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

This article originally appeared at ScheerPost

The Supreme Court is relentlessly funding and empowering Christian fascism. It not only overturned Roe v. Wade, ending a constitutional right to an abortion, but ruled on June 21 that Maine may not exclude religious schools from a state tuition program. It has ruled that a Montana state program to support private schools must include religious schools. It ruled that a 40-foot cross could remain on state property in suburban Maryland. It upheld the Trump administration regulation allowing employers to deny birth control coverage to female employees on religious grounds. It ruled that employment discrimination laws do not apply to teachers at religious schools. It ruled that a Catholic social services agency in Philadelphia could ignore city rules and refuse to screen same-sex couples applying to take in foster children. It neutered the 1965 Voting Rights Act. It watered down laws allowing workers to combat sexual and racial harassment in court. It reversed century-old campaign finance restrictions to permit corporations, private groups and oligarchs to spend unlimited funds on elections, a system of legalized bribery, in Citizens United v Federal Election Commission. It permitted states to opt out of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion. It undercut the ability of public sector unions to raise funds. It forced workers with legal grievances to submit their complaints to privatized arbitration boards. It ruled that states cannot restrict the right to carry concealed weapons in public. It ruled that suspects cannot sue police who neglect to read them their Miranda warnings and use their statements against them in court. Outlawing contraception, same-sex marriage and same-sex consensual relations are probably next. Only 25 percent of those polled say they have confidence in Supreme Court decisions.

I do not use the word fascist lightly. My father was a Presbyterian minister. My mother, a professor, was a seminary graduate. I received my Master of Divinity from Harvard Divinity School. I am an ordained Presbyterian minister. Most importantly, I spent two years reporting from megachurches, creationist seminars, right-to-life retreats, Christian broadcasting networks and conducted hundreds of hours of interviews with members and leaders of the Christian right for my book "American Fascists: The Christian Right and the War on America," which is banned at most "Christian" schools and universities. Before the book was published, I met at length with Fritz Stern, the author of "The Politics of Cultural Despair: A Study in the Rise of the German Ideology," and Robert O. Paxton, who wrote "The Anatomy of Fascism," two of the country's most eminent scholars of fascism, to make sure the word fascist was appropriate.
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The book was a warning that an American fascism, wrapped in the flag and clutching the Christian cross, was organizing to extinguish our anemic democracy. This assault is very far advanced. The connecting tissue among the disparate militia groups, QAnon conspiracy theorists, anti-abortion activists, right-wing patriot organizations, Second Amendment advocates, neo-Confederates and Trump supporters that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 is this frightening Christian fascism.

Fascists achieve power by creating parallel institutions — schools, universities, media platforms and paramilitary forces — and seizing the organs of internal security and the judiciary. They deform the law, including electoral law, to serve their ends. They are rarely in the majority. The Nazis never polled above 37 percent in free elections in Germany. Christian fascists constitute less than a third of the U.S. electorate, about the same percentage of those who consider abortion to be murder.

Fascists win power by creating parallel institutions and seizing the internal security organs and the the judiciary. They don't need a majority.

This flagrant manipulation of law was displayed in two of the most recent Supreme Court decisions, where those who support this ideology have a 5-3 majority, with the less extremist Chief Justice John Roberts often adding a sixth vote. In overturning Roe v. Wade, the court, in a 6-3 decision, argued that states have the power to decide whether abortion is legal. The same court conversely came down against "states' rights," in striking down strict restrictions on carrying concealed firearms.

What the ideology demands is law. What the ideology opposes is a crime. Once a legal system is subservient to dogma an open society is impossible.

Blow by blow, autocratic power is being solidified by this monstrous Christian fascism which is bankrolled by the most retrograde forces of corporate capitalism. It looks set to take control of the U.S. Congress in the midterm elections. If Trump, or a Trump-like clone, is elected in 2024, what is left of our democracy will likely be extinguished.

These Christian fascists are clear about the society they intend to create.

In their ideal America, our "secular humanist" society based on science and reason will be destroyed. The Ten Commandments will form the basis of the legal system. Creationism or "Intelligent Design" will be taught in public schools, many of which will be overtly "Christian." Those branded as social deviants, including the LGBTQ community, immigrants, secular humanists, feminists, Jews, Muslims, criminals and those dismissed as "nominal Christians" — meaning Christians who do not embrace this peculiar interpretation of the Bible — will be silenced, imprisoned or killed. The role of the federal government will be reduced to protecting property rights, "homeland" security and waging war. Most government assistance programs and federal departments, including education, will be terminated. Church organizations will be funded and empowered to run social welfare agencies and schools. The poor, condemned for sloth, indolence and sinfulness, will be denied help. The death penalty will be expanded to include "moral crimes," including apostasy, blasphemy, sodomy and witchcraft, as well as abortion, which will be treated as murder. Women, denied contraception, access to abortion and equality under the law, will be subordinate to men. Those who practice other faiths will become, at best, second-class citizens. The wars waged by the American empire will be defined as religious crusades. Victims of police violence and those in prison will have no redress. There will be no separation of church and state. The only legitimate voices in public discourse and the media will be "Christian." America will be sacralized as an agent of God. Those who defy the "Christian" authorities, at home and abroad, will be condemned as agents of Satan.



How did the historians of Weimar Germany and Nazism, the professors of Holocaust studies, the sociologists and the religious scholars manage to miss the rise of our homegrown Christian fascism? Immersed in the writings of Hannah Arendt, Raul Hilberg, Saul Friedländer, Joachim Fest, Dietrich Bonhoeffer and Theodor Adorno, they never connected the dots. Why didn't church leaders thunder in denunciation at the grotesque perversion of the Gospel by the Christian fascists as they sacralized the get-rich-with-Jesus schemes of the prosperity gospel, imperialism, militarism, capitalism, patriarchy, white supremacy and other forms of bigotry? Why didn't reporters see the flashing red lights that lit up decades ago?

How did the historians, the sociologists and the religious scholars miss the rise of Christian fascism? They told us, "Never again," but refused to use the lessons of the past to explain the present. It was not ignorance. It was cowardice.

Most of those tasked with reporting on and interpreting history, social movements and religious beliefs have failed us. They spoke about the past, vowing "Never again," but refused to use the lessons of the past to explain the present. It was not ignorance. It was cowardice. To confront the Christian fascists, even in universities, meant career-canceling accusations of religious bigotry and intolerance. It meant credible threats of violence from conspiracy theorists who believed they were called by God to murder abortion providers, Muslims and "secular humanists."

It was easier, as many academics did in Weimar Germany, to believe that the fascists did not mean what they said, that there were strains within the movement that could be reasoned with, that opening channels of dialogue and communication could see the fascists domesticated, that in power the fascists would not act on their extremist and violent rhetoric. With few exceptions, German academics did not protest the Nazi assumption of power and the wholesale dismissal of their liberal, socialist and Jewish colleagues.

Although my book was a New York Times bestseller, Harvard told my publisher it was not interested in my appearing at the school. I gave a lecture on the book at Colgate University, where I had earned my undergraduate degree, organized by my mentor Coleman Brown, a professor of ethics. I held a seminar, also organized by Coleman, with the professors of philosophy and religion after the talk. These professors wanted nothing to do with the critique. When we left the room, Coleman muttered, "The problem is they do not believe in heretics."

I was asked in 2006 to speak at the inauguration of the LGBT center at Princeton University when I was the Anschutz Distinguished Fellow in American Studies. To my dismay, the faculty facilitators had invited representatives from the right-wing Christian student group who see any deviation from heterosexuality as a psychological and moral abnormality. Christian fascist pastors in Texas and Idaho, who have driven countless young people struggling with their sexual identity to suicide, have called for the execution of gay people as recently as a few days ago.

"There is no dialogue with those who deny your legitimate right to be," I said, looking pointedly at the LGBTQ students. "At that point it is a fight for survival."

The faculty member organizing the event leapt from her chair.

"This is a university," she said to me curtly. "Your talk is over. You can't say those kinds of things here."

I sat down. But I had made my point.

All those tasked in our society with interpreting the world around us forgot, as philosopher Karl Popper wrote in "The Open Society and Its Enemies," that "unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them."

Scholars, intellectuals and journalists bear much of the blame: They stood by as the working class was stripped of rights by the billionaires, fertilizing the ground for American fascism.

These scholars, writers, intellectuals and journalists, like those in Weimar Germany, bear much of the blame. They preferred accommodation over confrontation. They stood by as the working class was stripped of rights and impoverished by the billionaire class, fertilizing the ground for an American fascism. Those who orchestrated the economic, political and social assault are the major donors to the universities. They control trustee boards, grants, academic prizes, think tanks, promotion, publishing and tenure. Academics, looking for an exit, ignored the attacks by the ruling oligarchy. They ascribed to the Christian fascists, bankrolled by huge corporations such as Tyson Foods, Purdue, Walmart and Sam's Warehouse, attributes that did not exist. They tacitly gave the Christian fascists religious legitimacy. These Christian fascists are an updated version of the so-called German Christian Church, or Deutsche Christen, which fused the iconography and symbols of the Christian religion with the Nazi party. The theologian Paul Tillich, the first non-Jewish German professor to be blacklisted from German universities by the Nazis, angrily chastised those who refused to fight "the paganism of the swastika" and retreated into a myopic preoccupation with personal piety.

Victor Klemperer, stripped of his position as a professor of Romance languages at the Technical University of Dresden when the Nazis came to power in 1933 because he was Jewish, mused in his diary in 1936 what he would do in post-Nazi Germany if "the fate of the vanquished lay in my hands." He wrote that he would "let all the ordinary folk go and even some of the leaders. … But I would have all the intellectuals strung up, and the professors three feet higher than the rest; they would be left hanging from the lamp posts for as long as was compatible with hygiene."
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Fascists promise moral renewal, a return to a lost golden age. They use campaigns of moral purity to justify state repression. Adolf Hitler, days after he took power in January 1933, imposed a ban on all homosexual organizations. He ordered raids on homosexual clubs and bars, including the Institute for Sexual Science in Berlin, and the permanent exile of its director, Magnus Hirschfeld. Thousands of volumes from the institute's library were tossed into a bonfire. This "moral cleansing" was cheered on by the German public, including German churches. But the tactics, outside the law, swiftly legitimized what would soon be done to others.

I studied at Harvard with theologian James Luther Adams. Adams was a member of the underground anti-Nazi Confessing Church in Germany led by the Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller. Adams was arrested in 1936 by the Gestapo and expelled from the country. He was one of the very few to see the deadly strains of fascism in the nascent Christian right.

"When you are my age," he told us (he was then 80), "you will all be fighting the Christian fascists."

And here we are.

The billionaire class, while sometimes socially liberal, dispossessed working men and women through deindustrialization, austerity, a legalized tax boycott, looting the U.S. Treasury and deregulation. It triggered the widespread despair and rage that pushed many of the betrayed into the arms of these con artists and demagogues. It is more than willing to accommodate the Christian fascists, even if it means abandoning the liberal veneer of inclusiveness. It has no intention of supporting social equality, which is why it thwarted the candidacy of Bernie Sanders.

In the end, even the liberal class will choose fascism over empowering the left wing and organized labor. The only thing the ruling oligarchy truly cares about is unfettered exploitation and profit. They, like the industrialists in Nazi Germany, will happily make an alliance with the Christian fascists, no matter how bizarre and buffoonish, and embrace the blood sacrifices of the condemned.

Read more on the fusion of right-wing Christianity and fascist politics:

Jesus, endless war and the irresistible rise of American fascism

Religion scholar Anthea Butler on "White Christianity" and its role in fueling fascism

CHRIS HEDGES  is the former Middle East bureau chief of the New York Times, a Pulitzer Prize winner and a columnist at ScheerPost. He is the author of several books, including "America: The Farewell Tour," "American Fascists: The Christian Right and the War on America" and "War Is a Force That Gives Us Meaning." He previously worked overseas for the Dallas Morning News, the Christian Science Monitor and NPR, and hosts the Emmy-nominated RT America show "On Contact."MORE FROM CHRIS HEDGES


Four Minn. cities get state money to study petroleum leak sites

Kirsti Marohn
Brainerd, Minn.
June 28, 2022 

The site of a former service station in Paynesville, where a petroleum leak was discovered in the 1980s and forced the city to close two of its wells. The city received state funding in 2015 for a water treatment system.
Courtesy of City of Paynesville

Four Minnesota cities are receiving state funding to analyze whether leaded gasoline from leaking storage tanks is putting their drinking water at risk.

The Legislature approved $200,000 to investigate petroleum leak sites in Paynesville, Alexandria, Foley and Blaine.

The additional study comes in the wake of a former Minnesota Pollution Control Agency employee filing a whistleblower lawsuit last year against his former employer.

Mark Toso raised questions about the state’s petroleum remediation program where he’d worked as a hydrologist for a decade, and whether it was doing enough to prevent leaded gasoline from contaminating groundwater.

Toso's lawsuit is still pending. Meanwhile, state lawmakers authorized $200,000 for Paynesville to take the lead in hiring a consultant to analyze the extent of leaded gasoline contamination and the threat it poses to each city’s drinking water supply.

Paynesville Mayor Shawn Reinke called the funding “good news for the city.” He said the additional analysis will help answer lingering questions city officials have about the site.

"This is just a study, just an analysis, to see if more soil removal would be beneficial and cost effective,” Reinke said.

The Paynesville contamination, from underground tanks at a former service station, was first discovered in the 1980s. Chemicals from the petroleum leached into the groundwater and forced the city two close two of its wells. The MPCA replaced the wells.

City officials urged the MPCA to excavate the site and remove the contaminated soil, which the agency resisted. In 2015, the Legislature appropriated up to $2.5 million for a treatment system to remove chemicals from the city’s water.

The city recently had its water supply independently tested and found it’s safe to drink, Reinke said.

“We did that just out of an abundance of caution, knowing that there might be some eyebrows raised with the allegations of the lawsuit,” he said.

However, the MPCA doesn’t agree that additional study is needed.

The agency is monitoring the Paynesville site and is confident the plume isn't moving or contaminating the city's drinking water, said Jamie Wallerstedt, the MPCA’s remediation division director.

About 1,500 cubic yards of contaminated soil was removed from the Paynesville site in 1990. Follow-up studies found that it wasn’t feasible or necessary to take more soil out of the ground, Wallerstedt said.

Early warning detection monitoring wells between the petroleum site and Paynesville’s drinking water system would alert the agency if the contamination plume was getting close, Wallerstedt said.

“We monitor that closely,” she said. “The contamination is stable, and it's not moving in the direction of the city's drinking water.”

The same is true for the petroleum leak sites in the other three cities, she said.

Wallerstedt said the MPCA is willing to review the consultant’s information and recommendations and consider whether a change of plan is needed. However, she added, “Cleaning up beyond what's necessary does come with a cost.”

In February, the Office of the Legislative Auditor released an evaluation of the petroleum remediation program that called for better regulation and oversight of consultants hired to work at petroleum release sites.

It also said when considering how to address a release, the agency doesn’t consider how a property might be used in the future.

Wallerstedt said the MPCA is taking steps to address the recommendations in the report, including improving how it tracks and monitors low-risk leaks. She said the quality of contractors does affect the agency’s handling of leak sites.

“We do stand by that the decisions made at our sites are sound, and they protect the health of Minnesotans,” she said.

 Lawmakers Menendez, Schiff alarmed that Biden again approves US military aid to Azerbaijan

28.06.2022

US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Chair Adam Schiff (D-CA) reacted sharply to President Biden’s decision to once again waive Section 907 restrictions on U.S. aid to Azerbaijan, greenlighting new U.S. military aid to the Aliyev regime despite its ethnic cleansing of the indigenous Armenian population of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), reported the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA).

In a statement, Chairman Menendez noted, “As Azerbaijan continues to further occupy territory from its violent assault on Nagorno-Karabakh, during which more than 6,500 people died and more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians were displaced in 2020, it simply makes no sense to say that U.S. assistance and training has not impacted its military balance with Armenia. I will continue to conduct rigorous oversight of any and all assistance to Azerbaijan and expect the Department of State to operate with complete transparency and provide all necessary details for Congress to assess any assistance provided to Baku.”

In commentary released to the ANCA, Chairman Schiff pledged to work with Congressional allies and the Armenian American community to “remove a president’s power to waive Section 907 and to urge the Biden administration to reinvigorate the peace process.”  Chairman Schiff explained, “Azerbaijan is responsible for provoking a horrific war and humanitarian disaster in Armenia and Artsakh, killing thousands of Armenians over 44 days in September 2020 and forcing thousands more to flee their ancestral homelands. To this day, Azerbaijan continues to illegally detain Armenian soldiers who have been subject to torture, and to threaten thousands of innocent civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh who live in fear of another attack and invasion.”

Chairman Schiff continued, “Under no circumstances should the United States be providing military support to such a regime – it not only runs counter to our nation’s core democratic values, but could empower the Aliyev regime to continue or escalate its provocative actions against Armenians. President Biden should not have waived Section 907.” 

On June 23rd, the Biden Administration reportedly notified Congress of their decision to waive Section 907 of the FREEDOM Support Act. The measure, adopted in 1992, establishes statutory restrictions on U.S. assistance to the Government of Azerbaijan “until the President determines, and so reports to the Congress, that the Government of Azerbaijan is taking demonstrable steps to cease all blockades and other offensive uses of force against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.” Congress included a Section 907 waiver in the FY2002 Foreign Operations, Export Financing, and Related Programs Appropriations Act. U.S. presidents—Republican and Democrat—have waived Section 907 annually ever since.

During his run for office, on October 14th, 2020, then-candidate Biden stated that the United States must “fully implement and not waive requirements under Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act to stop the flow of military equipment to Azerbaijan.” As President, he first reversed his position on the issue on April 23, 2021—on the eve of his historic announcement properly recognizing the Armenian Genocide.

As avian influenza spreads in birds, conspiracy theories about the disease infect the internet


Chicks hatch from their eggs.
Credit: Otwarte Klatki/Andrew Skowron. CC BY 2.0.


By Matt Field | May 18, 2022

As H5N1 avian influenza spreads in birds around the United States and elsewhere, causing farmers to cull tens of millions of chickens and other farmed birds, baseless conspiracy theories about the severity of the bird flu and its origins are spreading with it. On TikTok, Facebook, Twitter, and other platforms, users are questioning whether the virus is a bioweapon, suggesting it’s a ploy by Bill Gates, and claiming a TV interview with a former CDC director offers proof that the disease outbreaks were planned or that the flu news was designed to scare people. None of which is true.

So far, only two humans—one in Colorado and one in the UK—are known to have contracted the H5N1 flu virus that’s circulating now. Both had direct contact with infected birds.

The posts about bird flu are reminiscent of false conspiracy theories that circulated during an earlier time in the COVID-19 pandemic. Social media users are calling the outbreaks among birds a “plandemic,” a term popularized by those who pushed a range of false claims about the coronavirus pandemic. Across, TikTok, Facebook, and Twitter, users have repurposed a video clip of former CDC Director Robert Redfield calling COVID-19 a wakeup call for a future avian influenza pandemic that could occur, if a form of bird flu were to mutate and become easily transmissible to and among humans. In March, on the Christian network Trinity Broadcasting Network, Redfield said bird flu could be “the great pandemic” of the future. Redfield was raising the alarm over what such a crisis could entail, but the social media posts appeared to use the clip to bolster outrageous allegations.

A TikTok post falsely claiming that bird flu outbreaks were planned.




“Wow. So the former CDC director who, for the record, was very much involved in and entirely aligned with Dr. Fauci on the response to COVID-19 is telling us in no uncertain terms that yes bird flu will be the next plandemic,” one TikTok user said. On Twitter and Facebook, users posted the video, along with this text: “Former head of the CDC Robert R. Redfield confirming the next scamdemic will be bird flu which will kill ‘10 to 50 percent’ of the population.”

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Other posts implied that Bill Gates, the billionaire philanthropist who often found himself the target of COVID-19 conspiracy theories, is behind the avian influenza scare in order to boost his investments. “Bird flu … yeah right! It’s Bill gates because organic farms animals are his biggest competitors of fake meat. Bill gates is the biggest threat for humanity…change my mind!” one Twitter user wrote.
 
A false claim about bird flu on Twitter.

The AP first reported the spread of bird flu conspiracy theories on Tuesday, noting that some online posters are claiming that avian influenza is a manufactured bioweapon or that it is spread by 5G cellphone towers, false claims that have also been made about SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

The wire service noted that while the virus is rarely harmful to people, it’s having a devastating impact on poultry operations, where farmers have culled millions of birds in Wisconsin, Iowa, South Dakota and elsewhere. One man in Colorado was diagnosed with an avian influenza infection in April. He had been working to cull infected birds.

According to the CDC, officials began detecting the H5N1 flu in the United States in January. Since then the virus has been found in wild and farmed birds in 35 states and has affected some 37 million birds. The last time officials detected the virus in the country was in 2016.

With an ongoing pandemic, inflation concerns, baby food shortages, and a war in Ukraine, current events were already providing all but endless fodder for conspiracy theorists to use in online efforts that capitalize on fear. Bird flu appears to be just one of the latest examples.

Matt Field is Editor, Disruptive Technologies at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Before joining the Bulletin, he covered the... Read More
Does wood bioenergy help or harm the climate?

"To avoid the worst harms from climate change we must
not only keep the vast majority of remaining fossil carbon
in the ground, but must also keep the vast majority of the
carbon in forests on the land."














In the most financially successful version of biomass technology to date, huge swathes of forests in North America are clearcut and all the vegetation ground and compressed into dense little chips that look like the feed pellets available at the corner pet store. After it’s been processed into these generic pellets, the wood is relatively easy to use as a replacement for coal: the wood (or any other organic material) is made to behave as much as possible like very small, broken-up pieces of coal in a furnace. Logs and wood pellets 
image courtesy of VisionTIR

LONG READ


By John Sterman, William Moomaw, Juliette N. Rooney-Varga, Lori Siegel
May 10, 2022

In the 2015 Paris climate accord, 197 countries agreed to limit warming to “well below 2 degrees Celsius,” and to strive for 1.5 degrees Celsius. To have even a roughly 50 percent chance of achieving this goal, net global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by nearly half from 2010 levels this decade and reach zero by mid-century (UNFCCC 2021). Consequently, at least 140 countries, accounting for about 90 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, have pledged to reach net zero emissions around the middle of this century (Climate Action Tracker 2021). But few have specified how they will do so. A growing number, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have declared wood bioenergy to be carbon neutral, allowing them to exclude the carbon dioxide generated from wood bioenergy combustion in their greenhouse gas accounting. Many subsidize wood bioenergy to help meet their renewable energy targets (Norton et al. 2019). The appeal is intuitive: burning fossil fuels adds carbon that has been sequestered underground for millions of years to the atmosphere, while forests might regrow, eventually removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

But can burning trees—including not just the trunk, but also the bark, branches, needles or leaves, roots, stumps, mill waste, sawdust, and all the other vegetative materials known as “biomass” that make up a forest—help cut carbon emissions in time to prevent climate catastrophe?

The bioenergy industry and many governments argue that wood bioenergy is carbon neutral. The “Claims and Facts” tables throughout the text below list some of the common claims the industry makes, together with the science showing these claims to be incorrect. For example, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization claims that “While burning fossil fuels releases CO2 that has been locked up for millions of years, burning biomass simply returns to the atmosphere the carbon dioxide that was absorbed as the plants grew” (Matthews and Robertson 2001). But the fact that the carbon in wood was previously removed from the atmosphere as the trees grew is irrelevant: A molecule of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere today has the same impact on radiative forcing—its contribution to global warming—whether it comes from fossil fuels millions of years old or biomass grown last year. When burned, the carbon in those trees immediately increases atmospheric carbon dioxide above what it would have been had they not been burned.



To illustrate, consider a forest that was harvested for lumber, pulpwood, or energy 50 years ago, and has been regrowing since then. (Few forests in the United States and Europe are mature, “old growth”—most are “working forests” and go through cycles of harvest, regrowth, and reharvest [see US Forest Service 2014]). What happens if that forest is now cut and burned for energy? When the wood is burned, the carbon it contains is emitted as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. If the forest regrows, after another 50 years it will have removed about the same amount of carbon dioxide it emitted when it was cut and burned for energy. Until then, there’s more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than if it had not been burned, accelerating climate change.

But the situation is worse: If the forest had not been cut, it would have continued to grow, removing additional carbon from the atmosphere. Compared to allowing the forest to grow, cutting it for bioenergy would increase carbon dioxide emissions and worsen global warming for at least half a century—time we do not have to reach net-zero emissions and avoid the worst harms from climate change.

But what if the wood used to generate electricity reduces the use of fossil fuels? Wouldn’t total carbon dioxide emissions then fall? That depends on how much carbon dioxide is emitted from wood relative to the fuel being displaced. To determine whether wood bioenergy can slow climate change, we therefore need to know answers to a series of questions:

How much carbon dioxide does burning wood for energy add to the atmosphere?

Burning wood to generate electricity emits more carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour generated than fossil fuels—even coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel. Although wood and coal contain about the same amount of carbon per unit of primary energy—the raw energy in the fuel—(EPA 2018), wood burns less efficiently, in part because it contains more water than coal. The higher the water content, the larger the fraction of the energy of combustion goes into vaporizing that water and up the flue instead of producing the heat needed to make the steam that powers the turbines and generators (Dzurenda and Banski 2017, FAO 2015).

Carbon dioxide emissions from the wood supply chain also exceed those from coal. Wood must be harvested, transported to a mill, dried, processed into chips or pellets, and transported to a power plant (Figure 1). These activities emit carbon dioxide from fossil fuel-powered vehicles and machinery, plus emissions from burning wood or fossil fuels to reduce the water content of chips and pellets from approximately 50 percent for raw wood to about 10 percent for dried pellets. About 27 percent of the harvested biomass is lost in the wood pellet supply chain, of which the largest share—18 percent—arises from burning some of the biomass to generate heat to dry pellets (Röder et al. 2015). In contrast, coal processing adds only about 11 percent to emissions (Sterman et al. 2018a).

The situation is worse if wood displaces other fossil fuels: Wood releases about 25 percent more carbon dioxide per joule of primary energy than fuel oil, and about 75 percent more carbon dioxide than fossil (so-called “natural”) gas (EPA 2018). Wood bioenergy therefore emits more carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour of power generated than all fossil fuels, including coal (PFPI 2011), incurring a “carbon debt”—an immediate increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, worsening climate change every year, unless and until that carbon debt is repaid later by forest regrowth. 
Figure 1. Life cycle emissions from wood bioenergy. Every stage of the supply chain adds CO2 to the atmosphere, from cutting the trees through transport, processing the wood into chips or pellets, transporting them to a power plant, and combustion. CO2 is removed only later, and only if, the harvested land regrows. Photo credits, left to right: Power Plant, courtesy of Paul Glazzard, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 license. Transport: Handymax bulk carrier, courtesy of Nsandel/Wikimedia/Public Domain. Pellet mill, Truck Transport, and Forest images all courtesy of Dogwood Alliance, used with permission.

Will the forests harvested for bioenergy regrow? If so, how long will it take?

The wood bioenergy industry claims to practice sustainable forestry and be carbon neutral (e.g., Drax 2021, Enviva 2021). The most important claim is that wood bioenergy is carbon neutral because the harvested forests will regrow, removing the carbon they add to the atmosphere when burned (Table 1). However, regrowth is uncertain, and regrowth takes time.

Regrowth is uncertain: Land harvested for bioenergy might be converted to pasture, cropland, or development, preventing regrowth. The carbon dioxide emitted when the trees are burned is then never taken back up by forest regrowth on that land. Even if the harvested land is allowed to regrow, the trees may be harvested again, legally or illegally. The carbon dioxide released in each rotation returns to the atmosphere, where it worsens climate change.

Even if the recovering forest is somehow protected against all future harvest, the trees face risks from wildfire, insects, disease, extreme weather, and drought, all increasing as the climate warms (Brecka et al. 2018; Xu et al. 2019, Boulton, Lenton and Boers 2022). These factors slow or prevent carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere by forests and may even convert forests from carbon sinks to carbon sources (Gatti et al. 2021). These growing risks to regrowth would limit the future removal of the carbon dioxide emitted by burning wood, permanently worsening climate change.

Regrowth takes time: Even if land conversion, repeated harvests, fire, drought, disease, and other adverse events never arise, regrowth takes time. The time required for regrowth to remove the carbon dioxide emitted when wood is burned for energy is known as the “carbon debt payback time.”


Are the forests harvested for bioenergy growing and removing carbon dioxide now?

The US bioenergy industry uses the fact that many US forests are growing today to claim that wood bioenergy is carbon neutral. For example, Enviva, the largest US pellet producer, with multiple mills in the Southeast United States, falsely argues that “…continued forest carbon gain across the landscape… means that products from the Southeast U.S., including wood bioenergy, are not adding carbon emissions to the atmosphere. As a result, when wood pellets from this region are used to generate energy, we can set stack emissions to zero.” (Enviva, nd; see Table 1).
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It is true that forests in the Southeast US are acting as carbon sinks today as the result of intensive management and recovery from prior harvests. But these and other forest carbon sinks are already accounted for in the national greenhouse gas emissions inventories required under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which sets the rules for greenhouse gas accounting under international agreements (e.g., UNFCCC 2014). Therefore, what counts is what happens to emissions on the margin—that is, the incremental impact of harvesting forests for bioenergy compared to allowing those forests to continue to grow and serve as carbon sinks. Typical rotation periods for working forests are far shorter than the time required for them to reach maturity and maximum carbon storage (Moomaw, Masino, and Faison 2019, Sohngen and Brown 2011, US Forest Service 2014). The younger the forest and faster it is growing when harvested for bioenergy, the more future carbon sequestration is lost.

A dynamic lifecycle assessment of wood bioenergy

To determine the impact of wood bioenergy on carbon dioxide emissions we developed a model for dynamic lifecycle assessment of wood bioenergy (Sterman et al. 2018a; Sterman et al. 2018b). The model includes carbon dioxide emissions from bioenergy, carbon dioxide uptake by regrowth, and carbon dioxide emissions avoided if wood displaces fossil fuels. Supply chain emissions for both wood and fossil fuels are included. Model parameters were estimated from data on forest regrowth in a wide range of forests in the southern and eastern USA, regions increasingly supplying wood for pellets, much of which is exported to Europe and the United Kingdom.
Figure 2. Impact of harvesting wood for bioenergy in 2025 from a 50-year-old oak-hickory forest in the south central USA. Top: Change in carbon on the harvested land (tons C per hectare). Brown: carbon in soils and dead organic matter; Green: carbon in living biomass. Dotted line: the total carbon stock (living biomass and soils) if the forest were not harvested in 2025. The forest would have continued to grow and remove carbon from the atmosphere but for being cut for bioenergy. The difference between the dotted no-harvest line and the top of the green band is the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by the harvest. Bottom: Change in atmospheric CO2 resulting from the harvest and combustion of the wood. Solid line: wood displaces a zero-carbon energy source. Dotted line: wood displaces coal. Scale: the initial rise in atmospheric CO2 when wood displaces zero-carbon energy is normalized to 100%. The initial rise in atmospheric CO2 when wood displaces coal is about 50% less due to the emissions avoided by the reduction in coal use.

Figure 2 (above) shows the impact of wood harvested for bioenergy from an oak-hickory forest, “perhaps the most extensive deciduous forest type of eastern North America” (Dick 2016). The simulation parameters are estimated for oak-hickory forests in the south central United States, among the forests used to supply wood pellets for bioenergy, including exports to the United Kingdom (Buchholz & Gunn 2015; Sterman et al. 2018a 2018b report results for other forests in the southern and eastern US). Most forests in the United States have been cut multiple times. We assume the last prior harvest was 50 years ago. To assess the dynamic impact of wood bioenergy use, Figure 2 traces the impact of a single harvest in 2025, showing the stocks of carbon in the biomass and soil and the resulting change in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. We consider two scenarios:The harvested wood is used to generate electric power that replaces an equivalent amount of energy generated from coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel.
The harvested wood is used to generate electric power that replaces an equivalent amount of energy produced by zero-carbon sources (e.g., wind and solar).

The top panel of Figure 2 shows the stock of carbon on the land harvested for bioenergy (metric tons of carbon per hectare), including the carbon in the living biomass and in soils and dead organic matter. The harvest and combustion of wood for energy immediately reduces the stock of carbon in living biomass on the land and increases atmospheric carbon dioxide. The stock of carbon in dead biomass and soil also begins to drop: the wood harvest reduces the flux of carbon from living biomass to soils, while heterotrophic respiration by bacteria, fungi, and other organisms continues to release the carbon in dead biomass and soils into the atmosphere. After the harvest, the forest begins to recover. Soil carbon continues to drop for some time, however, until the flux of carbon transferred to the soils from living biomass exceeds the flux of carbon emitted to the atmosphere from the soil by heterotrophic respiration.

The simulation assumes the land is harvested 50 years after the last rotation. The forest at that time is still recovering. The dotted line in the top panel of Figure 2 shows that the total stock of carbon on that land would have continued to grow through 2200 (and beyond), but for the harvest for bioenergy. The difference between the no-harvest and harvest cases is the quantity of carbon lost to the atmosphere due to the bioenergy harvest. The bioenergy harvest not only adds the carbon extracted and burned to the atmosphere, but prevents the additional growth that would have occurred had the forest not been harvested.

The bottom panel of Figure 2 shows the change in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for the two scenarios above. The figure shows the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide relative to the no-harvest case, scaled relative to the magnitude of the initial change in carbon dioxide when the wood displaces zero-carbon energy such as wind and solar (the absolute change in atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the amount of wood harvested and burned). Cutting and burning trees for bioenergy immediately increases the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The jump in atmospheric carbon dioxide when wood displaces coal is approximately half as much as when the wood displaces zero-carbon energy. The impact of displacing other fossil fuels such as fuel oil or fossil (“natural”) gas lies between the coal and zero-carbon scenarios because these fuels emit less carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour than coal, but of course more than wind or solar.

Note that, in both cases atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to increase through approximately 2040, 15 years after the assumed harvest in 2025. Although the harvested land begins to regrow immediately, seedlings and saplings have much smaller leaf area for photosynthesis and accumulate carbon slower than older trees. Consequently, the carbon sequestered by regrowth is initially less than the carbon the forest would have stored had it not been harvested.


After approximately the year 2040, the excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the harvest and combustion of the wood begins to fall as regrowth outpaces the growth in carbon in the no-harvest case. However, atmospheric carbon dioxide remains above the level it would have had but for the harvest well beyond the year 2100. Even when wood displaces coal, the excess carbon dioxide is not taken back up by forest regrowth until after the year 2140: The carbon debt payback time in this scenario is approximately 115 years. When the wood displaces zero-carbon energy, atmospheric carbon dioxide remains above its initial level well past the year 2200.

The simulation shows the impact of clearing a stand of forest and using the wood for bioenergy. The bioenergy industry claims that they practice what they call “sustainable” forestry—avoiding clearcutting, taking only residues from lumber and pulpwood harvests, or thinning forests by taking only small or diseased trees. Environmental groups, however, have documented the harvest of large trees and clear-cutting by the industry (Norton et al. 2019; Stashwick et al. 2019; Stashwick et al. 2017). To address this issue, we also simulated the impact of thinning, in which only 25 percent of the living biomass is removed from the harvested forest (Sterman et al. 2018a 2018b). Across all the forests examined, thinning reduces the carbon debt payback times somewhat. For example, in the scenario shown in Figure 2, thinning reduces the carbon debt payback year from 2140 to 2115—still too late.

The simulations favor wood bioenergy. We assume that the land remains forested, that the forest grows back without any subsequent harvest, and that it suffers no losses from wildfire, disease, insects, extreme weather or other threats to regrowth. We do not consider additional carbon loss from soils due to the disturbance caused by the harvest. We do not consider non-climate harms from wood harvest and bioenergy production, including habitat fragmentation, loss of biodiversity, and the health effects of exposure to particulates and other pollutants from wood processing and power plants.

To track the impact of wood bioenergy, the simulation shows the impact of harvesting and burning wood for energy in a single year. But the bioenergy industry is growing rapidly, stimulated by the false declaration that wood is carbon neutral and resulting subsidies in many nations. The International Energy Agency reports primary energy from biomass for electricity generation grew at an average rate of more than 6 percent per year between 1990 and 2018 (IEA 2020). The IEA’s “Net-Zero by 2050” scenario projects modern bioenergy—which includes wood—will grow by more than a factor of four by 2050 (IEA 2021b).

What happens to atmospheric carbon dioxide in the realistic case of growing wood bioenergy use? Each year the carbon dioxide emissions from cutting and burning wood would exceed the removal of carbon dioxide by regrowth, continually increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, just as filling your bathtub faster than it drains will continually raise the level of water in the tub (until it overflows and damages your home).

The situation is analogous to a government that runs a continually growing fiscal deficit. The outstanding debt rises every year even if the government fully repays every bond it issues at maturity. In the same way, the growing use of wood bioenergy adds more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere every year, increasing the outstanding carbon debt, even if the forests are managed sustainably and all harvested lands eventually recover enough to fully repay the carbon debt incurred when the wood was extracted and burned.


Eventual carbon neutrality is not climate neutrality

Even under the best case where wood displaces coal, regrowth does not remove the excess carbon dioxide emitted by wood for many decades or more, and far longer if the harvested forests are growing today—as most are—and far more if wood displaces other fossil fuels. At that future time, wood bioenergy can be said to have achieved carbon neutrality. Until then, wood bioenergy increases the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere above what it would have been, accelerating global warming.

But is the climate impact of that additional warming reversed if regrowth finally removes the excess carbon dioxide? Is eventual carbon neutrality the same as climate neutrality?

The answer is “No.”

Even temporarily elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide cause irreversible climate damage (IPCC 2022; Solomon et al. 2009). The excess carbon dioxide from wood bioenergy begins warming the climate immediately upon entering the atmosphere. The harms caused by that additional warming are not undone even if the carbon debt from wood energy is eventually repaid: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt faster, sea level rises higher, wildfires become more likely, permafrost thaws faster, and storms intensify more than if the wood had not been burned. Eventual full forest recovery will not replace lost ice, lower sea level, undo climate disasters, put carbon back into permafrost, or bring back homes lost to floods or wildfires. The excess warming from wood bioenergy increases the chances of going beyond various climate tipping points that could lead to runaway climate change: emissions “pathways that overshoot 1.5°C run a greater risk of passing through ‘tipping points’, thresholds beyond which certain impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures are brought back down later on” (IPCC 2018, p. 283). Carbon neutrality is not climate neutrality.

Why does it matter? We have already raised global average surface temperatures about 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, and most of humanity already suffers from its effects (Callaghan et al. 2021, IPCC 2022). The consequences of warming beyond 2 degrees Celsius are expected to be devastating. Sea levels could rise by well over a meter by the end of this century, exposing millions of people to coastal flooding (Kulp & Strauss 2019). More than half the world’s people would be exposed to deadly heat waves (Mora et al. 2017). The yields of crops including wheat, maize, rice, and soy would fall even as the United Nations projects that world population will grow by billions (Zhao et al. 2017, United Nations 2019). Droughts, wildfires, and intense storms will become more frequent and extreme (IPCC 2018). Warming could push the Earth beyond various tipping points that could lead to irreversible harm (IPCC 2018). These impacts would intensify hunger, economic disruption, mass migration, civil conflict, and war (Burke et al. 2015; Hsiang & Burke 2014; Koubi 2019; Levy 2019). Scientists and nearly all nations on Earth therefore agree that global greenhouse gas emissions must fall as deeply and quickly as possible, reaching net zero by approximately midcentury.

Wood bioenergy moves the world in the wrong direction.

Policy implications

What can be done? First, policies that treat wood bioenergy as carbon neutral must end. These policies allow power plants and nations to ignore the carbon dioxide they emit by burning wood on the false assumption that those emissions are quickly offset by forest growth somewhere else, creating a “critical climate accounting error” (Searchinger, et al. 2009). The carbon dioxide emitted from wood should be counted the same way emissions from other fuels are: fully, at the point of combustion.

Second, subsidies for wood bioenergy must end. Subsidizing wood bioenergy means taxpayers are paying pellet and power producers to make climate change worse.

Third, the fact that wood bioenergy is worse than coal in no way justifies the continued use of coal or any fossil fuel. To avoid the worst harms from climate change we must not only keep the vast majority of remaining fossilized carbon in the ground, we must also keep the vast majority of the carbon in our forests on the land.

The good news is that existing technologies such as energy efficiency, and the use of renewables such as solar, wind, and geothermal energy, can meet people’s needs for comfort, light, mobility, communication, and other purposes. The costs of these technologies are falling rapidly, and in many places are already lower than fossil fuels (IEA 2021a). Innovations in clean energy, energy storage, smart grids, and other technologies are expanding our ability to meet everyone’s energy needs affordably. Unlike wood bioenergy, these technologies allow forests to continue growing and sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide. Investments in energy efficiency and clean energy also generate multiple co-benefits including increased community resilience, jobs, and improved health and economic well-being, especially for low-income individuals and households (Belesova et al. 2020; Burke et al. 2018; IEA 2021a; IPCC 2018; Pollin et al. 2014; Shindell et al. 2018). In contrast, particulate emissions and other pollutants from wood bioenergy damage human health (Allergy & Asthma Network et al. 2016).

To keep global warming under 2 degrees Celsius, net greenhouse gas emissions must fall to net zero by approximately mid-century, less than 30 years from now. Wood bioenergy increases greenhouse gas emissions and makes climate change worse during these critical years and beyond, even if the wood displaces coal. More effective ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions and meet human needs are available and affordable now. Ending subsidies and policies that promote wood bioenergy will reduce emissions and allow forests to continue to grow, preserving their vital role as carbon sinks that moderate climate change.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Funding

Authors John Sterman and Lori Siegel received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors for this work. Author William Moomaw was supported by a grant from the Rockefeller Brothers Foundation. Author Juliette N. Rooney-Varga was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant ICER-1701062.


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Brazil wants special treatment for its nuclear submarine program—just like Australia


By Ian J. Stewart | June 28, 2022

The Brazilian Navy’s first Scorpène-class submarine S40 Riachuelo, launched in
December 2018. The first Brazilian nuclear-powered attack submarine SSN Alvaro Alberto is scheduled for 2030.


On June 6, Brazil and the IAEA entered into negotiations over safeguards (known as special procedures) to allow the largest South American country to use nuclear fuel in its slow-burning submarine program. Coming alongside a collective effort by the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia (known as the AUKUS security framework) to transfer nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, this means that two non-nuclear weapons states are now negotiating with the IAEA over safeguards provisions for submarines. Although the two cases evolve within different security contexts, with AUKUS being squarely aimed at countering China, this new development will complicate the negotiations over how to safeguard nuclear material used in submarines.

Two sides of the same coin. The 2021 announcement about AUKUS focused attention for the first time in recent history on the question of how to safeguard nuclear fuel for submarines in a non-nuclear weapons state. Under AUKUS, the three countries are spending 18 months examining how to transfer nuclear submarines to Australia without undermining nonproliferation efforts. While much remains unclear, nuclear weapons-grade, highly-enriched uranium (HEU) fuel imported by Australia for its submarine reactors will likely arrive as “sealed” reactors. Under AUKUS, Australia will not acquire the prerequisite nuclear fuel cycle steps such as uranium enrichment. Because of these provisions, many would argue the direct proliferation risks brought by AUKUS are low. The fissile material will be irradiated in a reactor, which would make it radioactive and thus harder to handle. Removing the fuel would disable the submarine. And Australia anyway does not have the facilities to open the reactor, remove the irradiated fuel, and use it to make nuclear weapons.

Despite this, the prospects of normalizing HEU for use in non-nuclear weapons state submarine programs alarm many. Furthermore, China is furious about the AUKUS announcement, recognizing that it is entirely aimed at countering China from a geostrategic perspective. Diplomatically, and as rearticulated to the author in interviews earlier this year, China has focused much of its fury on raising concerns about the proliferation risks of AUKUS and the precedent it could set for other countries. As a way of building diplomatic pressure on AUKUS, China has called for a standing agenda item on the IAEA board of governors related to safeguards and for a “criteria-based” approach to safeguard designs for submarines.


In this context, Brazil’s initiative takes on its full meaning. Brazil’s submarine program has been under development for decades and is not likely to come to fruition any time soon. However, Brazil seems to appreciate that whichever submarine safeguards agreement is negotiated first will set a precedent for others. Brazil’s decision to launch special procedure negotiations therefore may come from hopes that whatever safeguards approaches agreed upon in the AUKUS case won’t be detrimental to Brazil’s interests. In another twist, whereas China’s proposed criteria-based approach may be just a diplomatic tool to stop Australia from accessing HEU, others may join China’s effort in proposing a criteria-based approach whose purpose is more than just pressing Australia

Brazil’s nonproliferation policy challenge. The Brazil and Australia approaches are scarcely comparable. Whereas Australia seeks to import turnkey reactors from either the United States or the United Kingdom, Brazil is taking an entirely different, indigenous path by developing its own civilian and military nuclear fuel cycles, the latter being geared toward its submarine program. Brazil is expected to use low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel in the submarines which in principle should be of little concern as LEU is not suitable for weapons. However, given Brazil has an indigenous military nuclear fuel cycle, including uranium conversion and enrichment facilities, proliferation concerns will be high. Brazil is also building a prototype submarine reactor. From interviews with relevant officials earlier this year, the author understands that Brazil intends to manufacture uranium metal for future iterations of its submarines. The interviews suggested that Brazil intends to ask to place nearly all of its military nuclear fuel cycle, under special procedures. This would be an incredibly broad request that would set off alarm bells in many countries.

There are even more complexities in the Brazil case. The country has not yet concluded an additional protocol with the IAEA. Brazil also is a party to the quadripartite safeguards agreement which gives both the IAEA and the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Material (ABACC) a role in safeguarding the submarine program. The absence of an additional protocol is likely to be seen as incompatible with having a military nuclear fuel cycle and advancing submarine program. Because of this incompatibility, Brazil is expected to explore the conclusion of an additional protocol as part of the special procedure negotiations—which would be already an important development. Brazil has historically been one of the main holdouts to universalizing the additional protocol. Based on interviews with leading figures in the negotiation of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), Brazil is also considered to be in large part responsible for the limited safeguards-based verification measures associated with the TPNW concluded in 2020, which does not require countries to conclude an additional protocol with the IAEA. The conclusion of an additional protocol by Brazil may thus allow scope for discussion on strengthening the verification provisions associated with the TPNW. The prospect of Brazil concluding an additional protocol and the advancement of Brazil’s submarine program means that ABACC would also have to evolve. It is understood that ABACC is also expected to take on some additional protocol-like provisions in its own safeguards system. Brazil’s decision to start negotiations on the safeguards provisions of its submarine program is likely to have profound implications for the ABACC safeguards regime.


Coming: complex negotiations on nuclear submarine safeguards. The net result is that 2022 will mark the beginning of complex negotiations on safeguards for nuclear submarines that will have important implications for the safeguards system. Besides the issue of safeguarding submarine fuel, Brazil’s special procedure negotiations may also affect the future of ABACC. Importantly, it may also lead Brazil to conclude an additional protocol with the IAEA which, thanks to the quadripartite safeguards agreement, would likely see Argentina do the same. Two of the main countries with substantial nuclear fuel cycles but still without an additional protocol could thus be on the verge of concluding them, which might renew momentum towards its universalization.

Much remains unclear however as to whether Brazil’s announcement will result in the creation of a criteria-based approach to submarine safeguards. It is difficult to see how a single criterion could apply to the very different nuclear fuel paths being pursued by Australia and Brazil. While some may argue that such a criterion should exclude the possibility of using HEU fuel in submarines, it is not clear how banning HEU use and relying instead on LEU with an associated indigenous nuclear fuel cycle is a lower risk option from a nonproliferation perspective. Perhaps a common ground criterion for all countries pursuing nuclear-powered submarines should be to have in place an additional protocol with the IAEA. In this regard, at least, the precedent set by Australia and Brazil can be positive.


Ian J. Stewart is executive director of the James Martin Center in Washington, DC. He previously worked in the UK Ministry of Defence where, among other... Read More