Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Genetic twist: Medieval plague may have molded our immunity

Our Medieval ancestors left us with a biological legacy: Genes that may have helped them survive the Black Death make us more susceptible to certain diseases today.



Genetic twist: Medieval plague may have molded our immunity© Provided by The Canadian Press

It's a prime example of the way germs shape us over time, scientists say in a new study published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

“Our genome today is a reflection of our whole evolutionary history" as we adapt to different germs, said Luis Barreiro, a senior author of the research. Some, like those behind the bubonic plague, have had a big impact on our immune systems.

The Black Death in the 14th century was the single deadliest event in recorded history, spreading throughout Europe, the Middle East and northern Africa and wiping out up to 30% to 50% of the population.

Barreiro and his colleagues at the University of Chicago, McMaster University in Ontario and the Pasteur Institute in Paris examined ancient DNA samples from the bones of more than 200 people from London and Denmark who died over about 100 years that stretched before, during, and after the Black Death swept through that region.

They identified four genes that, depending on the variant, either protected against or increased susceptibility to the bacteria that causes bubonic plague, which is most often transmitted by the bite of an infected flea.

They found that what helped people in Medieval times led to problems generations later — raising the frequency of mutations detrimental in modern times. Some of the same genetic variants identified as protective against the plague are associated with certain autoimmune disorders, such as Crohn’s disease, rheumatoid arthritis and lupus. In these sorts of diseases, the immune system that defends the body against disease and infection attacks the body's own healthy tissues.

“A hyperactive immune system may have been great in the past but in the environment today it might not be as helpful,” said Hendrik Poinar, an anthropology professor at McMaster and another senior author.

Past research has also sought to examine how the Black Death affected the human genome. But Barreiro said he believes theirs is the first demonstration that the Black Death was important to the evolution of the human immune system. One unique aspect of the study, he said, was to focus on a narrow time window around the event.

Monica H. Green, an author and historian of medicine who has studied the Black Death extensively, called the research “tremendously impressive,” bringing together a wide range of experts.

“It’s extremely sophisticated" and addresses important issues, such as how the same version of a gene can protect people from a horrific infection and also put modern people — and generations of their descendants — at risk for other illnesses, said Green, who was not involved in the study.

All of this begs the question: Will the COVID-19 pandemic have a big impact on human evolution? Barreiro said he doesn’t think so because the death rate is so much lower and the majority of people who have died had already had children.

In the future, however, he said more deadly pandemics may well continue to shape us at the most basic level.

“It's not going to stop. It’s going to keep going for sure.”

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Laura Ungar, The Associated Press
DENIAL OF THEIR HUMAN RIGHTS
El Salvador’s government assures that imprisoned gang members have no right to reintegration

The Vice Minister of Justice and General Director of Penal Centers of El Salvador, Osiris Luna, has assured this Tuesday that not all prisoners have the right to reintegration into society, maintaining that some of those detained under the exception regime declared by the Government will remain in prison forever.


Archive - Gang members arrested in El Salvador - 
POLICÍA NACIONAL CIVIL DE EL SALVADOR© Provided by News 360

"These people who are being detained, these terrorists (...), are going to be held in a more severe regime. Anyone who is proven to be a gang member, who is part of these terrorists, should not hesitate for a single moment, these people will not be released from prison again", said Luna in declarations to Cadena Megavisión.

The Salvadoran Vice Minister of Justice assured that in countries like the United States or Spain, terrorists are not given the opportunity to reintegrate into society, but rather "they are put in the gas chamber and given a death sentence".

Likewise, Luna affirmed that the country's project promoted by the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, "is comprehensive", since "nobody wants to break the law".

However, he assured that the deaths of prisoners in Salvadoran jails reported by some human rights organizations are due to their refusal to receive medical treatment or because they have previous health problems.

Luna said that the growing number of deaths among inmates is due to the fact that El Salvador's prisons receive people who "have up to four morbidities and arrive with a series of very complicated illnesses", in addition to the fact that there are people who do not want to undergo medical tests, as he said in the interview with Cadena Megavisión.

"Up to this moment, no death has been verified for any other reason than the health issue, and I can guarantee that. We are within the corresponding instances carrying out the clinical analyses (...), despite the fact that it is an extremely large population", Luna assured.

However, Luna's statements are contrary to what has been reported by human rights organizations and family members who have denounced the deaths of up to 73 people in the country's prisons who were detained under the legal framework of the emergency regime implemented to combat gangs.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) or the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) have expressed their concern about the imposition of the state of exception in El Salvador, to which Bukele has responded that these organizations "defend the gang members". Meanwhile, the United Nations has also expressed concern over the wave of homicides in the Central American country.

Following a historic spike in homicides in March, Bukele asked Congress to authorize a state of emergency, which suspends some constitutional rights, to launch an offensive against the gangs that plague the Central American country.

During this period, the Salvadoran government is empowered to suspend certain freedoms and guarantees to facilitate the deployment of military and police in the streets and municipalities where these homicides occurred.

AFTER BITCOIN BUKELE'S  NEXT PROJECT

AMERICAN HEGEMONY
Petro accuses US of ruining «all the economies of the world».

The president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, has accused the United States of ruining "all the economies of the world" while making decisions aimed at protecting itself in the face of an economic crisis that is already "unquestionable".



Colombian President Gustavo Petro - S. Barros/LongVisual via ZUMA Pr / DPA© Provided by News 360

In this sense, he has criticized that, with its latest decisions, such as the increase in interest rates, the world economy has suffered, especially that of Latin American countries, for which he has urged the creation of a block of countries in the region to face the recession.

"The Russians, the Ukrainians, the Europeans in the first place, have unleashed a war in their own continent: a war for gas, for energy", he explained, adding that "Latin America is being plundered", as reported by Blu Radio.

On the other hand, Petro has also charged against Washington in the migratory field, affirming that "they have put machine guns", "jails" and "walls" so that migrants do not enter through their border. "(So) they are treated and mistreated when they arrive there, if they arrive alive," he said.

Thus, he has stressed that "more prosperity must be achieved" in Latin American nations. "How many Colombians have already died in that exodus, that country that does not want them", he pointed out, adding that the United States "should understand" that in order to stop the migratory crisis it does not have to destroy Latin American economies, but help them, as reported by RCN Radio.
Norway intel agency takes over probe into drone sightings


Wed, October 19, 2022 




COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Norway's domestic security agency on Wednesday took over investigations of drone sightings near key infrastructure sites hours after the airport in the country's second-largest city briefly closed due to area residents spotting at least one drone nearby.

Bergen Airport, which is near Norway’s main naval base, shut down at around 6:30 a.m. when the area's air space was closed and reopened 2 1/2 hours later. Bergen police spokesman Ørjan Djuvik said several drone sightings were reported near the airport.

“There can also be observations that could be other phenomenon, for instance weather,” Djuvik said. “We are sure that there is at least one.”

North of Bergen, a drone was reported near the small, domestic Foerde airport, which also closed temporarily, Norwegian news agency NTB said.

Numerous drone sightings have been reported near offshore oil and gas platforms and other Norwegian infrastructure in recent months, Hedvig Moe, deputy chief of the Norwegian Police Security Service, said.

“We believe (the drone flights are) carried out in a way that makes it difficult to find out who is really behind it,” but Norwegian authorities suspect Russian involvement in operating unmanned aerial vehicles that “can be used for espionage or simply to create fear,” Moe said.

“Russia simply has more to gain and less to lose by conducting intelligence activities in Norway now compared to the situation before the war," she said during a news conference. "It is simply because Russia is in a pressed situation as a result of the war (in Ukraine) and is isolated by sanctions.”

”We are in a tense security-political situation, and at the same time a complex and unclear threat picture that can change in a relatively short time,” she said.

At least seven Russian citizens were detained over the past few weeks for flying drones or taking photographs of sensitive sites in Norway.

A 47-year-old man with dual Russian and British citizenship was jailed Wednesday for two weeks on suspicion of flying drones on Norway’s Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, NTB reported. He is accused of breaching sanctions which came into force after Russia went to war against Ukraine, Moe said, declining to elaborate.

Under Norwegian law, it is prohibited for aircraft operated by Russian companies or citizens “to land on, take off from or fly over Norwegian territory.” Norway is not a member of the European Union but mirrors its moves.

“It is not acceptable that foreign intelligence is flying drones over Norwegian airports. Russians are not allowed to fly drones in Norway,” Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said, according to Norwegian broadcaster NRK. “We do not want anyone to fly this type of craft over important installations in Norway.”

Airport operator Avinor told NRK on Tuesday that 50 possible drone observations have been reported at Norway's civilian airports so far this year, 27 of them since July.

NTB said 17 and 14 drone sightings were reported in 2021 and 2020, respectively, while the number was 44 in 2019.

The Norwegian Police Security Service, known by the acronym PST, plans to work closely with local police agencies which have conducted investigations, Moe said.

Other European nations heightened security around key energy, internet and power infrastructure following last month’s underwater explosions that ruptured two natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea that were built to deliver Russian gas to Germany.

The damaged Nord Stream pipelines off Sweden and Denmark discharged huge amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the air.

___

Follow AP's coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

Jan M. Olsen, The Associated Press
RENT IS INFLATION NATIONAL RENT CONTROL NOW

Canada's inflation beat boosts chances of 75 bps rate hike

Julie Gordon
Wed, October 19, 2022 a

Preparations ahead of Hurricane Fiona in Newfoundland

By Julie Gordon

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate edged down but exceeded forecasts in September while underlying price pressures were largely unchanged, data showed on Wednesday, amplifying calls for another hefty rate hike by the central bank next week.

Inflation was 6.9%, ahead of forecasts of 6.8% and down from 7.0% in August. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% from 5.3% in August.

All three of the Bank of Canada's core measures of inflation, its preferred yardsticks for underlying inflation, were flat in September, with the average of the three matching August's upwardly revised 5.3%.

"Even though the headline numbers have moved lower - it does look like the inflationary shock is spreading a bit," said Andrew Kelvin, chief Canada strategist at TD Securities.

"I think it's going to really intensify the conversation around whether (the Bank of Canada) needs to lift rates by 50 or 75 basis points," he added.

Graphic: Canadian inflation and interest rates -
 https://graphics.reuters.com/CANADA-ECONOMY/INFLATION/zjpqkxxxnpx/chart.png

The central bank's next decision is Oct. 26, when it will also publish quarterly forecasts. Money markets bets swung to a 75-basis point move after the inflation data, with the policy rate now seen peaking between 4.25% and 4.50% early next year.

Most economists polled beforehand by Reuters said they expected a 50 bps rise.

The bank has hiked rates by 300 bps since March and made clear more increases are coming.

There are signs those fast-rising rates are cooling Canada's once red-hot housing market. Homeowner replacement costs, tied to the price of new homes, slowed to 7.7% in September, the fourth consecutive deceleration.

But it was lower gasoline prices that edged the annual inflation rate down, while consumers paid 11.4% more for their groceries, the largest gain since August 1981.

"We've seen some of the impact of hiking and also the weaker energy prices. The hope would have been that we'd see some more weakening and it's not happening," said Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins Group.

Jean also pointed to a Bank of Canada survey this week showing near-term consumer inflation expectations at record highs, which "puts the Bank of Canada in a position to have to still be aggressive."

The Canadian dollar was trading 0.3% lower at 1.3775 against the U.S. dollar, which rose against a basket of major currencies.

(Reporting by Julie Gordon in Ottawa; Additional reporting by Dale Smith and Steve Scherer in Ottawa and Fergal Smith in Toronto; Editing by Mark Porter, Angus MacSwan, John Stonestreet)
AB IS SECOND TO ONT IN RENEWABLES
Construction underway on Drumheller Solar Project



Wed, October 19, 2022 

Construction on the Drumheller Solar Project, located near the Drumheller Water Treatment Plant ponds, is finally underway after initially receiving approval from the Alberta Utilities Corporation (AUC) in July 2020.

The $27 million, 13.5-megawatt installation, which also includes battery storage, underwent a change of ownership when Vancouver-based Concord Green Energy acquired the solar project from Longspur Developments in July 2021; supply chain issues following the acquisition created further delays for project development.

“It’s a big solar farm that ties directly into the ATCO substation,” says Concord Green Energy project manager Michael Becker. He adds the energy captured by the facility will be put “straight into the grid” for Drumheller and surrounding areas.

It is estimated the facility will generate enough energy to supply about 3,000 homes.

There will be some 41,200 solar modules installed once completed.

It was initially anticipated the solar project would be operational by late 2022. While Concord will not be able to meet this timeline, Mr. Becker says the project is anticipated to come online within the first quarter of 2023.

Once the solar modules are installed, work will then begin to install a battery energy storage system which will capture energy during low demand times, and discharge power during peak demand times to help ease stress on the system. This battery storage system is supported through Emissions Reduction Alberta’s Biotechnology, Electricity, and Sustainable Transportation Challenges.

“Concord is certainly investing in green energy in south-central Alberta,” Mr. Becker tells the Mail.

This is the fourth solar project developed by Concord in southern and central Alberta; construction has already been completed on solar projects in Coaldale and Monarch near the City of Lethbridge, and a facility in Vulcan.

As solar facilities are “fairly low maintenance,” it is expected the project will create “a couple” permanent, full-time positions for facility and operations management once operational, according to Mr. Becker.

Lacie Nairn, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, The Drumheller Mail
ICYMI
WHO says COVID-19 is still a global health emergency

ISN'T THAT AN ABBOTT & COSTELLO SCHTICK 

Wed, October 19, 2022

FILE PHOTO: A logo is pictured outside a building of the WHO in Geneva


(Reuters) - The World Health Organization said on Wednesday that COVID-19 remains a global emergency, nearly three years after it was first declared as one.

The WHO's emergency committee first made the declaration for COVID-19 on Jan 30, 2020. Such a determination can help accelerate research, funding and international public health measures to contain a disease.

The UN-agency has said in recent months that while cases are falling in parts of the world, countries still need to maintain their vigilance and push to get their most vulnerable populations vaccinated.

"Although the public perception is that the pandemic is over in some parts of the world, it remains a public health event that continues to adversely and strongly affect the health of the world's population," the WHO's committee said.

It noted that even though the number of weekly deaths are the lowest since the pandemic began, they still remain high compared to other viruses.

"This pandemic has surprised us before and very well may again," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters.

(Reporting by Manas Mishra in Bengaluru and Jennifer Rigby in London; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
RIGHT TO WORK (FOR PEANUTS) STATE
BMW invests $1.7 billion to build electric vehicles in U.S


David Shepardson
Wed, October 19, 2022 at 9:01 a.m.·2 min read

IAA MOBILITY 2021 show in Munich

SPARTANBURG, South Carolina (Reuters) -BMW AG said on Wednesday it will invest $1.7 billion to build electric vehicles in the United States, the latest announcement from a major automaker about plans to ramp up U.S. EV production.

The German company said it was making a new $1 billion investment in its Spartanburg, South Carolina plant to prepare for EV production and will spend $700 million on a new high-voltage battery assembly facility in nearby Woodruff, South Carolina, and create at least 300 jobs.

"It's the biggest single investment we've done so far," BMW Group Chairman Oliver Zipse told Reuters in an interview.

South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster said at a ceremony the BMW capital investment is the largest in the state's history.

BMW also said Chinese renewable energy group Envision's Automotive Energy Supply Corporation (AESC) will build a new battery cell plant in South Carolina with an annual capacity of up to 30 GWh to supply the automaker.

The luxury automaker plans to build at least six fully electric BMW models in the United States by 2030.

BMW would not set a date to end production of gas-powered vehicles, it said, raising concerns about new U.S. EV tax credit requirements aimed at preventing the use of Chinese battery components and minerals.

Zipse said no region could be completely independent especially on battery raw materials and that the United States "should have a regulation that is not completely unrealistic.”

He warned the new $7,500 EV tax credit law adopted in August could prevent automakers from using the credit.

"It would be a disaster if you stop industry from developing," Zipse said.

BMW said its new battery format will increase energy density by more than 20%, improve charging speed and boost range by up to 30%.

BMW Group had already announced that four additional battery cell factories will be built in Europe and China to meet its needs. Zipse said the location of a sixth planned cell factory would be determined by market demand.

The cell factories being built by company partners will each have an annual capacity of up to 20 GWh.

BMW's 30-year-old South Carolina plant has built more than 6 million vehicles, employs more than 11,000 people, and has an annual production capacity of up to 450,000 vehicles.

South Carolina awarded a $65 million grant to Spartanburg County to assist with costs related to the project.

(Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Bernadette Baum)
MINING IS NOT GREEN
Biden awards $2.8 billion to boost U.S. minerals output for EV batteries



U.S. President Biden visits the Detroit Auto Show in Detroit, Michigan

By David Shepardson and Ernest Scheyder
Wed, October 19, 2022 


WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Biden administration said on Wednesday it is awarding $2.8 billion in grants to boost U.S. production of electric vehicle batteries and the minerals used to build them, part of a bid to wean the country off supplies from China.

"By undercutting U.S. manufacturers with their unfair subsidies and trade practices, China seized a significant portion of the market," President Joe Biden said Wednesday in announcing the awards."Today we're stepping up... to take it back, not all of it, but bold goals."

Albemarle Corp is among the 20 manufacturing and processing companies receiving U.S. Energy Department grants to domestically mine lithium, graphite and nickel, build the first large-scale U.S. lithium processing facility, construct facilities to build cathodes and other battery parts, and expand battery recycling.

The grants, which are going to projects across at least 12 states, mark the latest push by the Biden administration to help reduce the country's dependence on China and other nations for the building blocks of the green energy revolution.

The funding recipients, first reported by Reuters, were chosen by a White House steering committee and coordinated by the Energy Department with support from the Interior Department.

But the program does nothing to alleviate permitting delays faced by some in the mining industry.

Albemarle is set to receive $149.7 million to build a facility in North Carolina to lightly process rock containing lithium from a mine it is trying to reopen. That facility would then feed a separate U.S. plant that the company said in June would double the company's lithium production for EV batteries.

Albemarle, which also produces lithium in Australia and Chile, said the grant "increases the speed of lithium processing and reduces greenhouse gas emissions from long-distance transportation of raw minerals."

Piedmont Lithium Inc, whose shares rose nearly 11% following the news, was awarded $141.7 million to build its own lithium processing facility in Tennessee, where the company will initially process the metal sourced from Quebec and Ghana. Piedmont's plans to build a lithium mine in North Carolina have faced strong opposition.

Talon Metals Corp, which has a nickel supply deal with Tesla Inc, will receive $114.8 million to build a processing plant in North Dakota. That plant will process rock extracted from its planned underground mine in Minnesota.

The grants are "a clear recognition that production of domestic nickel and other battery minerals is a national priority," Talon said.

Other grants include $316.2 million to privately-held Ascend Elements to build a battery parts plant, $50 million to privately-held Lilac Solutions Inc for a demonstration plant for so-called direct lithium extraction technologies, $75 million to privately-held Cirba Solutions to expand an Ohio battery recycling plant, and $219.8 million to Syrah Technologies LLC, a subsidiary of Syrah Resources Ltd, to expand a graphite processing plant in Louisiana.

BIDEN'S GOAL


By 2030, Biden wants 50% of all new vehicles sold in the United States to be electric or plug-in hybrid electric models along with 500,000 new EV charging stations. He has not endorsed the phasing-out of new gasoline-powered vehicle sales by 2030.

Legislation tied to the program that Biden signed in August sets new strict battery component and sourcing requirements for $7,500 consumer EV tax credits. A separate $1 trillion infrastructure law signed in November 2021 allocates $7 billion to ensure U.S. manufacturers can access critical minerals and other components to manufacture the batteries.

The White House said that the United States and allies do not produce enough of the critical minerals and materials used in EV batteries.

"China currently controls much of the critical mineral supply chain and the lack of mining, processing, and recycling capacity in the U.S. could hinder electric vehicle development and adoption, leaving the U.S. dependent on unreliable foreign supply chains," the White House said.

In March, Biden invoked the Defense Production Act to support the production and processing of minerals and materials used for EV batteries.

(Reporting by David Shepardson in Washington and Ernest Scheyder in Houston; Additional reporting by Nandita Bose; Editing by Alexandra Alper; Bernadette Baum, Matthew Lewis, Paul Simao and Deepa Babington)
'Massive gaps' seen in countries' plans to tackle climate change -study


 Smoke and steam billows from Belchatow Power Station, Europe's largest coal-fired power plant operated by PGE Group, near Belchatow

Tue, October 18, 2022 
By Timothy Gardner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The latest pledges by countries to tackle global warming under the Paris Agreement are "woefully inadequate" to avert a rise in global temperatures that scientists say will worsen droughts, storms and floods, a report said on Wednesday.

The 2015 pact launched at a U.N. global climate summit requires 194 countries to detail their plans to fight climate change in what are known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs.

In pledges made through September, the NDCs would reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases only 7% from 2019 levels by 2030, said the report titled "The State of NDCs: 2022." It was written by the World Resources Institute (WRI) global nonprofit research group.

Countries must strengthen their targets by about six times that, or at least 43%, to align with what the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says is enough to reach the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the global temperature rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees F), it said.

"It really looks like we're hitting a bit of a plateau," Taryn Fransen, a senior fellow at WRI and author of the report said in an interview. She added that the COVID-19 pandemic and economic woes may have mostly capped countries' ambitions to boost their NDCs since 2021.

Current NDCs propose to reduce emissions by 5.5 gigatonnes compared with the initial NDCs from 2015, nearly equal to eliminating the annual emissions of the United States. But only 10% of that planned reduction has been pledged since 2021.

On the bright side, Australia and Indonesia did boost their NDCs this year. "That got us some progress," Fransen said, "but there hasn't been a lot beyond that." Countries in the Paris Agreement are required to update their NDCs by 2025.

"If the pace of improvement from 2016 to today continues, the world will not only miss the Paris Agreement goals, but it will miss them by a long shot," the report said.

Much of the focus of this year's global climate talks, to be held next month in Egypt, will center on reducing emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide during its first 20 years in the atmosphere. In an example of the work yet to be done, WRI found that only 15 of the 119 countries that signed a Global Methane Pledge launched last year included a specific, quantified methane reduction target in their NDCs.

Fransen said economic and health benefits of reducing emissions, such as the build-out of the energy transition and reduced air pollution, can help build momentum to deeper cuts. "Seeing those benefits can only help drive more ambitions, but it is a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem," she said.

(Reporting by Timothy Gardner in Washington; Editing by Matthew Lewis)


Climate Questions: Why do small degrees of warming matter?


Why do small degrees of warming matter? (AP Illustration/Peter Hamlin) 

SETH BORENSTEIN and DANA BELTAJI
Wed, October 19, 2022 

On a thermometer, a tenth of a degree seems tiny, barely noticeable. But small changes in average temperature can reverberate in a global climate to turn into big disasters as weather gets wilder and more extreme in a warmer world.

In 2015, countries around the world agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and pursue a goal of curbing warming to 1.5 Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) as part of the Paris Agreement.

Two degrees of difference might not be noticeable if you're gauging the weather outside, but for global average temperatures, these small numbers make a big difference.

“Every tenth of a degree matters,” is a phrase that climate scientists around the world keep repeating.

__

EDITOR’S NOTE: This story is part of an ongoing series answering some of the most fundamental questions around climate change, the science behind it, the effects of a warming planet and how the world is addressing it.

___

The Earth has already warmed at least 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, giving the world around 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.7 Fahrenheit) of more heating before passing the goal and suffering even more catastrophic climate change events, scientists have said.

These tenths of a degree are a big deal because the temperatures represent a global average of warming. Some parts of the world, especially land mass and northern latitudes like the Arctic have already warmed more than the 1.1 Celsius average and have far surpassed 1.5 Celsius, according to estimates.

It's helpful to look at temperatures like a bell curve, rather than just the average which doesn't reveal “hidden extremes,” said Princeton University climate scientist Gabe Vecchi.

“On the far end where the bell shape is very narrow, that is telling you the odds of very extreme events,” he said. “If you have a slight shift of the average of the peak of that bell to the warming direction, what that results in is a substantial decrease in the odds of extremely cold temperatures and a substantial increase in the odds of extremely warm temperatures.”

It's a similar picture with sea level rise, where the average obscures how some places are seeing much higher sea level increases than others, he said.

Most nations — including the world’s two largest emitters, the U.S. and China — aren’t on track to limit warming to 1.5 Celsius or even 2 Celsius, according to scientists and experts who track global action on climate change, despite promises to cut their emissions to “net zero”.

If temperatures increase by about 2 more degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the world will experience five times the floods, storms, drought and heat waves, according to estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“All bets are off” when it comes to how climate systems will respond to more warming, warned Brown University climate scientist Kim Cobb. The threat of some irreversible changes and feedback loops that amplify warming, such as the thawing of permafrost that traps massive amounts of greenhouse gas, could trigger even more heating.

“It’s just staggering to think about how many people will be under immediate threat of climate-related extremes in a two degree world," Cobb said.

___

Follow AP’s climate and environment coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

___