Wednesday, August 09, 2023

Prigozhin’s mutiny was a planned special operation – Danilov

The New Voice of Ukraine
Tue, August 8, 2023 

NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov

The June mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group private military company was a special operation coordinated with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) secretary Oleksiy Danilov told Ukrainian TV broadcasters on Aug. 8.

"Today we can already say that it was a special operation coordinated with Putin to expose those generals who were not entirely loyal to Putin and his entourage," said Danilov.

Read also: Former Wagner prisoner kills 5 Russians in drunken rampage after return from Ukraine

The official suggested that Kyiv is aware of the number of these generals. According to him, some of them are behind bars and have been relieved of duty.

Danilov said that the "divergences" within the Russian state will continue to gain momentum.

Read also: Ukraine won’t be able to develop an independent nuclear deterrent – Danilov

"And we believe that this will happen in the fall or winter of this year because the number of people who understand where Putin has led them to is increasing every day," he added.

When asked by a journalist about who could provoke the next uprising in Russia, Danilov said this question “requires time.”

Read also: Polish PM concerned that Wagner mercenaries in Belarus could infiltrate Poland

He believes that it could be an unexpected figure who will be quickly supported by the people because in Russia, "love is just one step away from hate," suggesting that public opinion in the country could quickly turn against Putin’s rule.

Previously, The Washington Post reported that Russian intelligence agencies informed Putin about the Wagner mutiny at least several days before it took place.
Kremlin says Russia 'theoretically' doesn't need to hold elections next year because it's 'obvious' Putin will win


Sonam Sheth
Tue, August 8, 2023
Business Insider

Russian President Vladimir Putin.GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images

The Kremlin's spokesperson said Russia "theoretically" doesn't need to hold presidential elections next year.


The elections don't need to happen because "it's obvious that Putin will be reelected," Dmitry Peskov said.


Putin has maintained a tight grip on power, making his 2024 re-election all but certain.


A spokesperson for the Kremlin said this week that Russia "theoretically" doesn't need to hold presidential elections next year because it's "obvious" that Vladimir Putin will win.

Dmitry Peskov, Putin's chief spokesperson, described Russia's presidential election as "not really democracy" but "costly bureaucracy" in an interview with The New York Times over the weekend.

"Mr, Putin will be reelected next year with more than 90 percent of the vote," he added.

After the article was published, Peskov claimed he was misquoted by The Times and tried to clarify his comments, telling Russia's RBK news outlet that the 2024 election "theoretically" doesn't need to happen because "it's obvious that Putin will be reelected."

Putin's reelection in March 2024 is indeed almost certain; but the Russian leader has largely maintained his grip on power by cracking down on the independent press, reportedly approving the assassinations and imprisonment of dissidents and political rivals; and approving a sweeping change to Russia's constitution that allows him to stay in power until 2036.

Next year's presidential election — if it happens — will also come amid Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Putin, who described the invasion as a "special military operation," has characterized it as being essential to Russia's survival as a nation, but the war is increasingly unpopular among Russian citizens and even within the Russian military.

One Russian inmate told The New York Times in June that he believed he was signing up to become an army construction worker when a government official recruited him from prison. Instead, he was sent to the frontlines in eastern Ukraine and captured by Ukrainian forces a few days later.

Other Russian soldiers said that they were "fucking fooled like little kids" and had no clue they were being sent to a war zone. In one audio recording previously obtained by The Times, a Russian soldier told his mother during a phone conversation that "no one told us we were going to war. They warned us one day before we left."


Russian elections are 'costly bureaucracy' that 'don't have to be held,' Putin spokesman says


Timothy Nerozzi
Tue, August 8, 2023

A spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin claims the unified coalition around the leader makes democratic elections unnecessary and irrelevant.

Press secretary Dmitry Peskov remarked to Russian media that democratic elections have become a "costly bureaucracy" that serves no purpose due to the supposed widespread support for Putin.

"Elections are what a democracy demands and Putin himself decided to hold them, but theoretically, they don’t even have to be held," Peskov told state media outlet RBK.

RUSSIAN OPPOSITION LEADER ALEXEI NAVALNY SENTENCED TO 19 YEARS IN PRISON


Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a joint news conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow.

He added, "Because it’s clear that Putin will be elected. That’s completely my personal opinion."

Peskov told RBK he was seeking to clarify his statement to The New York Times earlier this week that he claims was misquoted.

"Our presidential election is not really democracy, it is costly bureaucracy," Peskov told the New York Times in an article published Aug. 6. "Mr. Putin will be re-elected next year with more than 90 percent of the vote."


Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the government via a video conference at the Kremlin in Moscow.

The press secretary's comments on Russian democracy follow the conviction of political opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was found guilty of extremism by a Russian court on Friday.

Navalny, already serving a nine-year sentence on separate political charges, was sentenced to an additional 19 years.

"I understand perfectly that, as many political prisoners, I’m serving a life sentence, which is measured by the length of my life or the length of life of this regime," Navalny told his supporters via social media.

Navalny has long been Putin's most outspoken critic, leading anti-corruption watchdog organizations and protesting Kremlin policy.

In 2020, he sought medical attention in Germany after being poisoned with a nerve agent. He was arrested after returning to Moscow in January 2021.
Oil-Friendly Climate Advocates Shocked to Learn Big Oil Is Bad



Kate Aronoff
Tue, August 8, 2023 

In the last several weeks, more mainstream voices have started to echo the long-held concerns of climate activists: that—despite their deluge of green advertising and rhetoric—fossil fuel companies are not leading the way toward an energy transition.

It was an easy line to swallow for a while. ExxonMobil and other oil majors all went out of their way to voice support for the Paris Climate Agreement after its signing in 2015. As the U.N. climate talks approached in 2021, majors recommitted to net-zero promises, on the back foot after pandemic-era shutdowns cratered prices and profits.

That’s all changed now. As major U.S. and European producers rake in record earnings, even ostensibly more forward-thinking companies like BP and Shell are doubling down on fossil fuels and walking back climate pledges. That about-face, it seems, has allowed some industry-friendly advocates to finally see the light.

In an op-ed for The New York Times published Monday, Obama White House staffer Jason Bordoff—who now runs the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University—bemoaned that drillers have reversed or downplayed climate pledges and continue to invest small amounts of cash in green ventures. “The fact that shareholders seem to prefer that oil profits be distributed as dividends rather than reinvested more in low-carbon energy solutions suggests they are also skeptical about the industry’s ability to be as profitable in clean energy,” he wrote.

In 2020, Bordoff was optimistic about climate pledges made by BP, after the oil giant announced it was aiming to cut its emissions to zero by 2050. “While skepticism is warranted, the latest corporate pledges are compelling,” he wrote then. “If backed by real action, they mean these firms’ own economic interests will require they move away from oil and gas and push for stronger climate policy.” (It’s important to note that the academic center Bordoff runs routinely accepts millions of dollars in donations from the fossil fuel industry, including BP and those name-checked in his recent New York Times piece.)

But this week, Bordoff seemed to conclude such “real action” had not occurred, arguing BP and other drillers face a choice: “Either match their rhetoric with actions demonstrating convincingly that they are prepared to invest at scale in clean energy or acknowledge that their plan is to be among the last producers and bet on a slower transition.”

Bordoff wasn’t the only one to have a recent change of heart. Christiana Figueres—a key architect of the Paris Agreement—has talked frequently over the years about the leading role that oil companies could play in helping solve the climate crisis. She co-authored a 2021 piece for CNN with BP CEO Bernard Looney where the pair acknowledged they were “strange bedfellows” united by their “stubborn optimism” and “fierce commitment to inclusivity.”

“If anything,” they continued, “companies are outpacing governments in embracing the Paris goals—which is exactly what the world needs. Governments regulate and incentivize, but actually cutting emissions largely falls on others to implement. Companies have to do much of that—and society has a stake in helping them.”

Figueres struck a different tone last month, offering a mea culpa in Al Jazeera:

More than most members of the climate community, I have for years held space for the oil and gas industry to finally wake up and stand up to its critical responsibility in history.

I have done so because I was convinced the global economy could not be decarbonised without their constructive participation and I was therefore willing to support the transformation of their business model.

But what the industry is doing with its unprecedented profits over the past 12 months has changed my mind.

Like Bordoff, she ended with an ultimatum:

Do they want to gain some public license (if any is left for them) by speeding the winds of change or do they want to be the last men standing? If they choose the latter, the transition to clean energies will occur despite them, but it will likely be too late for humanity. The fossil fuel industry will have powered human development in the 20th century and then destroyed it in the 21st.

Both Figueres and Bordoff might be a bit late to the party, but it’s nice to have them. Over the coming decades, drillers are poised to become even more whiny and reactionary than ever. As Bordoff alluded to in his piece, the possibility of peak oil demand in the early 2030s will potentially drive companies to scramble to sell the last barrel by any means necessary.

What might seem like good news to climate advocates could soon yield an even meaner, uglier cadre of top executives. Over the weekend, The Wall Street Journal reported that the industry is having trouble attracting young talent, especially for white-collar posts. Enrollment in Petroleum Engineering programs at U.S. colleges is at its lowest point since before the shale boom, having dropped 75 percent since 2014. Where enrollment in those programs tends to track closely with oil prices, the last few years of higher prices and profits have seen that relationship dissolve. Despite the attractive salaries oil companies offer, younger graduates aren’t being swayed. Climate concerns and bleak long-term prospects mean that students are choosing other careers, forcing some schools to rebrand programs.

If going into white-collar oil and gas jobs is becoming an increasingly political choice, what might that say about the people who choose to do it? A decade or two ago, going to work for Chevron or Exxon might have been just another corporate gig. Declining interest in those careers across the board may well mean that those opting to go against the grain of more climate-conscious peers are increasingly right-wing. As today’s already paranoid, reactionary top executives age out and retire, the generations that replace them could lean even harder to the right.

Regardless, there may well just not be enough money in low-carbon ventures to make it worth oil companies’ while. That’s certainly true of wind and solar: Shell CEO Wael Sawan cited low returns as the reason the company was dialing back its plans to invest more in clean energy. But it’s also not clear what margins will be in businesses where fossil fuel companies’ expertise and capital are better suited to succeed, like carbon capture and storage. Will keeping carbon dioxide underground forever be more profitable than selling oil? Can decarbonizing industrial processes with green hydrogen compete with selling liquefied natural gas to emerging market economies?

Outgoing Financial Times energy editor Derek Brower urged readers, at the end of June, to keep expectations for oil and gas climate leadership low, suggesting drillers will give the wrong answers to the questions Bordoff and Figueres posed. “Remington was good at typewriters, but not the personal computer,” he wrote. “Why expect ExxonMobil or Saudi Aramco to lead—or even survive—a shift from their core business of digging up fossil fuels and selling them? And do you really want them to?”
Five people killed in Cape Town taxi strike violence

Nomsa Maseko & Antoinette Radford - BBC News
Tue, August 8, 2023 

Residents of Masiphumelele set up burning barricades amidst an ongoing strike by taxi operators against traffic authorities in Cape Town, South Africa, August 8, 2023

Five people have died in violent protests relating to a taxi strike in Cape Town, South Africa, officials say.

The victims include a 40-year-old British national whose family is being supported by the UK Foreign Office.

The week-long strike was called in response to what drivers said was "heavy-handed tactics" by law enforcement authorities.

The taxi drivers and owners said their vehicles were being targeted and impounded for minor offences.

Infringements included not wearing a seatbelt and illegally driving in the emergency lane, drivers said. They claimed others doing the same only faced fines.

Minibus taxi operators across Cape Town also aired frustrations that the government was impounding taxis they claimed were not roadworthy.

On Tuesday, South Africa's transport minister Sindisiwe Chikunga ordered the immediate release of the minibus taxis impounded by the City of Cape Town.

Ms Chikunga said the legislation used by the city had been "executed and implemented wrongly" and added that "it doesn't exist" under current laws.

The South African Ministry of Police said 120 people had been arrested since the strikes began on 3 August and they were aware of incidents of looting, stone throwing and arson.

Police Minister Bheki Cele also confirmed a police officer was among those who died.

On Tuesday, residents in the Masiphumelele township set up barricades, preventing other residents from leaving. Many of those barricades were set alight.

Speaking to the press on Tuesday, Mr Cele called for co-operation between the Cape Town government and taxi operators. He said those affected by the strike included children who could no longer get to school.

"People must swallow their pride, come together and resolve this issue", he said.

The UK has issued a travel warning after the strike was listed as a high security threat for tourists visiting South Africa.
Typhoon Khanun lashes southern Japan, South Korea, another storm looms



Reuters
Tue, August 8, 2023 

TOKYO/SEOUL (Reuters) -Flights were cancelled and trains halted on Wednesday as heavy rain from Typhoon Khanun pounded southern regions of Japan and South Korea, just as another storm approached from the east to threaten Tokyo ahead of Japan's peak summer holiday season.

Khanun could make landfall at the southeastern South Korean port city of Tongyeong on Thursday, before tracking up the Korean peninsula, authorities said.

North Korea's state media KCNA also said on Wednesday that industries such as textile mills there were working to minimise potential damage by typhoons and downpours.

The storm is currently in the sea south of Kyushu, Japan's southwestern main island some 860 km (530 miles) from Tokyo, after wreaking havoc in the southwestern Okinawa region. It is maintaining its strength and moving at an unusually slow 10 kph (6 mph), meaning the wind and rain will linger for longer.

Areas of Kyushu have already been inundated with a whole month's worth on rainfall in the past week, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said.

The agency issued heavy rain and high wind warnings to many parts of southern and western Japan, prompting automakers including Toyota to suspend some production. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida cancelled his attendance at a ceremony on Wednesday to mark the anniversary of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki, in Kyushu.

Railway operator West Japan Railway Co suspended some bullet train services in Kyushu, while a baseball game scheduled there was cancelled.

South Korea issued its highest alert as Khanun forced the cancellation of nearly 80 flights and the closure of dozens of sea routes and roads, the interior ministry said.

On Tuesday, officials evacuated more than 30,000 scouts from their campsite in the southwest ahead of the typhoon, the latest snag to hit the World Scout Jamboree.

President Yoon Suk Yeol has ordered authorities to prevent any further damage especially in regions hit by last month's torrential rain.

Another storm, Lan, had formed in the Pacific Ocean south of Japan and was predicted to strengthen as it heads north, possibly affecting Tokyo early next week, JMA said.

The two storms arrive at the start of Obon, Japan's peak summer holiday season when many people leave big cities for their ancestral hometowns.

(Reporting by Mariko Katsumura, Elaine Lies, Chang-Ran Kim in TOKYO, Hyonhee Shin in SEOUL; Additional reporting by Joyce Lee; editing by Miral Fahmy)
Scientists look beyond climate change and El Nino for other factors that heat up Earth





 People cool off at the Bosphorus as forest fire smoke rises, background, during a hot summer day in Istanbul, Turkey, July 26, 2023. Scientists say by far the biggest cause of the recent extreme warming is human-caused climate change and a natural El Nino. But some say there’s got to be something more. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco, File)

SETH BORENSTEIN
Updated Wed, August 9, 2023 

Scientists are wondering if global warming and El Nino have an accomplice in fueling this summer’s record-shattering heat.

The European climate agency Copernicus reported that July was one-third of a degree Celsius (six-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) hotter than the old record. That’s a bump in heat that is so recent and so big, especially in the oceans and even more so in the North Atlantic, that scientists are split on whether something else could be at work.

Scientists agree that by far the biggest cause of the recent extreme warming is climate change from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas that has triggered a long upward trend in temperatures. A natural El Nino, a temporary warming of parts of the Pacific that changes weather worldwide, adds a smaller boost. But some researchers say another factor must be present.

“What we are seeing is more than just El Nino on top of climate change,” Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo said.

One surprising source of added warmth could be cleaner air resulting from new shipping rules. Another possible cause is 165 million tons (150 million metric tons) of water spewed into the atmosphere by a volcano. Both ideas are under investigation.

THE CLEANER AIR POSSIBILITY


Florida State University climate scientist Michael Diamond says shipping is "probably the prime suspect.”

Maritime shipping has for decades used dirty fuel that gives off particles that reflect sunlight in a process that actually cools the climate and masks some of global warming.

In 2020, international shipping rules took effect that cut as much as 80% of those cooling particles, which was a “kind of shock to the system,” said atmospheric scientist Tianle Yuan of NASA and the University of Maryland Baltimore County.

The sulfur pollution used to interact with low clouds, making them brighter and more reflective, but that’s not happening as much now, Yuan said. He tracked changes in clouds that were associated with shipping routes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, both hot spots this summer.

In those spots, and to a lesser extent globally, Yuan’s studies show a possible warming from the loss of sulfur pollution. And the trend is in places where it really can’t be explained as easily by El Nino, he said.

“There was a cooling effect that was persistent year after year, and suddenly you remove that," Yuan said.

Diamond calculates a warming of about 0.1 degrees Celsius (0.18 degrees Fahrenheit) by midcentury from shipping regulations. The level of warming could be five to 10 times stronger in high shipping areas such as the North Atlantic.

A separate analysis by climate scientists Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth and Piers Forster of the University of Leeds projected half of Diamond's estimate.

DID THE VOLCANO DO IT?

In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai undersea volcano in the South Pacific blew, sending more than 165 million tons of water, which is a heat-trapping greenhouse gas as vapor, according to University of Colorado climate researcher Margot Clyne, who coordinates international computer simulations for climate impacts of the eruption.

The volcano also blasted 550,000 tons (500,000 metric tons) of sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere.

The amount of water "is so absolutely crazy, absolutely ginormous,” said Holger Vomel, a stratospheric water vapor scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who published a study on the potential climate effects of the eruption.

Volmer said the water vapor went too high in the atmosphere to have a noticeable effect yet, but that effects could emerge later.

A couple of studies use computer models to show a warming effect from all that water vapor. One study, which has not yet undergone the scientific gold standard of peer review, reported this week that the warming could range from as much as 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of added warming in some places to 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of cooling elsewhere.

But NASA atmospheric scientist Paul Newman and former NASA atmospheric scientist Mark Schoeberl said those climate models are missing a key ingredient: the cooling effect of the sulfur.

Normally huge volcanic eruptions, like 1991’s Mount Pinatubo, can cool Earth temporarily with sulfur and other particles reflecting sunlight. However, Hunga Tonga spouted an unusually high amount of water and low amount of cooling sulfur.

The studies that showed warming from Hunga Tonga didn’t incorporate sulfur cooling, which is hard to do, Schoeberl and Newman said. Schoeberl, now chief scientist at Science and Technology Corp. of Maryland, published a study that calculated a slight overall cooling — 0.04 degrees Celsius (0.07 degrees Fahrenheit).

Just because different computer simulations conflict with each other "that doesn’t mean science is wrong,” University of Colorado's Clyne said. “It just means that we haven’t reached a consensus yet. We’re still just figuring it out.”

LESSER SUSPECTS

Lesser suspects in the search include a dearth of African dust, which cools like sulfur pollution, as well as changes in the jet stream and a slowdown in ocean currents.

Some nonscientists have looked at recent solar storms and increased sunspot activity in the sun's 11-year cycle and speculated that Earth's nearest star may be a culprit. For decades, scientists have tracked sunspots and solar storms, and they don’t match warming temperatures, Berkeley Earth chief scientist Robert Rohde said.

Solar storms were stronger 20 and 30 years ago, but there is more warming now, he said.

LOOK NO FURTHER

Still, other scientists said there’s no need to look so hard. They say human-caused climate change, with an extra boost from El Nino, is enough to explain recent temperatures.

University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann estimates that about five-sixths of the recent warming is from human burning of fossil fuels, with about one-sixth due to a strong El Nino.

The fact that the world is coming out of a three-year La Nina, which suppressed global temperatures a bit, and going into a strong El Nino, which adds to them, makes the effect bigger, he said.

“Climate change and El Nino can explain it all,” Imperial College of London climate scientist Friederike Otto said. “That doesn’t mean other factors didn’t play a role. But we should definitely expect to see this again without the other factors being present.”

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Bahrain prison inmates are on hunger strike, the latest sign of simmering unrest in island kingdom
SHIA MAJORITY SUNNI RULERS

This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows the Jaw Rehabilitation and Reform Center near Jaw, Bahrain, July 26, 2023. Bahrain prison inmates are taking part in a hunger strike over conditions there, activists and authorities said Wednesday, Aug. 9, 2023, the latest sign of simmering unrest in the island kingdom a decade after the Arab Spring.
 (Planet Labs PBC via AP) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

JON GAMBRELL
Updated Wed, August 9, 2023 

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Inmates at a Bahrain prison are on a hunger strike over conditions there, activists and authorities said Wednesday, the latest sign of simmering unrest in the island kingdom a decade after Arab Spring protests.

The strike is underway at the Jaw Rehabilitation and Reform Center, a facility holding many of the prisoners identified by human rights activists as dissidents who oppose the rule of the Al Khalifa family. The country's Sunni rulers have long faced complaints from the island's Shiite majority of discrimination.

A statement published by the outlawed Al-Wefaq opposition group said the prisoners started the hunger strike over what it described as prison officials blocking inmates from worshipping and 23-hour lockdowns daily. The statement also alleged prison officials put inmates in isolation arbitrarily, interfered with family visits and provided inadequate health care to those incarcerated.

“Our demands are not trifles, but very necessary and required for human life, even at the lowest levels known to human history,” the prisoners' statement read.

Two prison blocks at the facility started their hunger strike on Monday, while three others started on Tuesday, said Sayed Ahmed Alwadaei, an exiled activist in Britain with the Bahrain Institute for Rights and Democracy. Alwadaei described those in the blocks taking part in the strike as “political prisoners.”

The prisoners put the number of those taking part in the strike in the hundreds; The Associated Press could not independently confirm that. Several audio messages, later shared by activists, confirmed the hunger strike.

On Wednesday, imprisoned activist Abdulhadi al-Khawaja joined the hunger strike, his daughter Maryam said. Al-Khawaja is serving a life sentence at the prison after leading protests during the 2011 Arab Spring.

The 62-year-old activist earlier drew attention to his imprisonment with a lengthy hunger strike in 2012, a detention considered “arbitrary” by a United Nations panel. Bahrain convicted him on internationally criticized terrorism charges.

“I am worried for my father’s life. I don’t know that he can survive another hunger strike and it’s unfathomable that he is being pushed, yet again, to resort to this as a means of protest,” his daughter said in a statement.

“I don’t want my father to be released to us in a coffin,” she added.

Responding to questions from the AP, Bahrain's General Directorate of Reform and Rehabilitation said that some inmates at the facility had “returned their meals” on Tuesday. It did not provide a number of those taking part in the hunger strike, but insisted prisons allowed Shiites to commemorate Ashoura and “enjoy their full rights” and health care.

Officials “will continue to monitor the conditions of the inmates who have returned their meals to ensure the quality of the services provided and to address their concerns within the framework of adherence to the law and respect for human rights,” the government statement said.

The Jaw Rehabilitation and Reform Center is located toward the southern end of Bahrain, an island off the coast of Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf that's about the size of New York City with a population of around 1.5 million people. Concerns over medical care at the prison have been raised before by activists.

The U.S. State Department's recent human rights report on Bahrain noted prisoners' families reported a tuberculosis outbreak at the prison in June 2022. The government denied an outbreak took place, but inaugurated a 24-hour clinic at the prison months afterward, the State Department said.

Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy's Mideast-based 5th Fleet, is in the midst of a decadelong crackdown on all dissent following the Arab Spring protests, which saw the island’s Shiite majority and others demanding more political freedom.

Since Bahrain put down the protests with the help of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, it has imprisoned Shiite activists, deported others, stripped hundreds of their citizenship and closed its leading independent newspaper.

Meanwhile, Bahrain has recognized Israel diplomatically and hosted Pope Francis last November.
Dam in Norway partially bursts after days of heavy rain, flooding and evacuations


















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Water breaks through the dam at Braskereidfoss, Norway, Wednesday, Aug. 9, 2023. Authorities in Norway say a dam has partially burst following days of heavy rain that triggered landslides and flooding in the mountainous southern parts of the country. Communities downstream already had been evacuated. (Cornelius Poppe/NTB Scanpix via AP)

JAN M. OLSEN
Updated Wed, August 9, 2023 
COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — A dam in southern Norway partially burst Wednesday following days of heavy rain that triggered landslides and flooding in the mountainous region and forced downstream communities to evacuate, officials said.

Authorities initially considered blowing up part of the dam at the Braskereidfoss hydroelectric power plant on the GlÃ¥ma, Norway’s longest and most voluminous river. The idea was to prevent communities downstream from being inundated by using a limited, controlled blast to release pressure on the dam.

But that proposal was scrapped after water later broke through the structure, police spokesman Fredrik Thomson told reporters.

“The damage from a possible explosion of the concrete plant would be so great that it would serve no purpose,” Thompson said.-

Now officials are hopeful that they will see a gradual, even leveling of the water, Thompson said.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre warned that flooding would continue to be a threat as excess water flows downstream.

“This is by no means over,” he said. “It could be the highest water level in 50 years or more."

The dam’s generators stopped working early Wednesday after a power grid failure, plant operator Hafslund Eco said in a statement.

An automatic system that should have opened the floodgates to release water failed. Rapidly rising water then spilled over the dam and into the power station itself, which caused major damage, officials said.

Huge volumes of water were pouring over the western parts of the dam, Thomson said.

The water ripped apart a two-lane road and fences that ran across the top of the dam.

Per Storm-Mathisen, a spokesman for the power station operator, told the Norwegian news agency NTB that the water diversion seemed to be “going well.”

At least 1,000 people live in communities close to the river in the area, and authorities said that all were evacuated before the dam began to fail.

In other developments Wednesday, a Norwegian woman in her 70s died after falling into a stream the day before. She managed to crawl up onto the bank, but because of the floods, it took rescue teams several hours to bring her to a hospital, police said.

More than 600 people were evacuated in a region north of Oslo, and police in southern Norway reported that the situation there was “unclear and chaotic.” All main roads between Oslo and Trondheim, Norway’s third-largest city, were closed, according to the Norwegian Public Roads Administration.

”We are in a crisis situation of national dimensions,” Innlandet County Mayor Aud Hove said. “People are isolated in several local communities, and the emergency services risk not being able to reach people who need help.”

The weather system known as Storm Hans has battered parts of Scandinavia and the Baltics for several days, causing rivers to overflow, damaging roads and knocking down branches that injured people.

Scientists have not done the intricate data analysis needed to see how much, if any, human-caused climate change played a role in the flooding. But they have long warned that, as the world warms, extreme storms will produce larger amounts of rain in bigger bursts.

One major reason is that the warmer the air is, the more water it can hold. Also, many scientists say changes in the jet stream — the atmospheric currents that propel weather systems — often lead to storms stalling over places and dumping more rain. Those changes could be connected to climate change.

Two hydrologists said the conflict between old dams and heavier amounts of rain is becoming a more frequent problem.

University of Virginia hydrologist Venkat Lakshmi said his research shows that older dams are unprepared to handle rainfall that comes in heavier, harder-to-manage bursts.

Many of those dams were designed to withstand floods that were supposed to happen only once a century, but those events are now happening much more often, he said.

“This type of conflict between climate and our hydrological infrastructure, such as dams, is going to become more common,” said UCLA hydrologist Park Williams. As rainfall intensifies, reservoirs and dams "will be increasingly out of tune with the changing climate.




Meanwhile, the flooding in southern Norway and central Sweden carried away sheds, small houses and mobile homes.

Norwegian meteorologists predicted that up to 30 millimeters (1.2 inches) of additional rain could fall by Wednesday evening, saying “the quantities are not extreme, but given the conditions in the area, the consequences may be.”

In neighboring Sweden’s second-largest city, Goteborg, large parts of the harbor were under water.

Weather agencies for both countries issued urgent warnings.

Erik Hojgard-Olsen, a meteorologist with the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, told the Aftonbladet newspaper that the weather was unusual for this time of year.

"It is exceptional to have such a low pressure (system) as Hans, which has brought so much rain for several days in a row,” he said. “Especially for being a summer month, it has lasted a long time.”

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate said record high flood levels were recorded in several places in the Drammensvassdraget, a drainage basin west of Oslo, the capital.

Erik Holmqvist, a senior engineer at the agency, said four lakes. including the Randsfjorden, the fourth-largest in Norway, were particularly vulnerable to flooding.

“We have to go all the way back to 1910 to get the same forecasts for the Randsfjorden,” Holmqvist told the VG newspaper.


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Associated Press Science Writer Seth Borenstein in Washington contributed to this report.
South Korea says Myanmar arms ban in place after U.N. concern

Wed, August 9, 2023 
By Hyonhee Shin

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea said on Wednesday its ban on the sale of arms to Myanmar remained in place even though it had invited an envoy appointed by its military rulers to an event promoting the sale of weapons.

Thomas Andrews, U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, had expressed "extreme concern" that the Myanmar ambassador, Thant Sin, attended the event hosted by South Korea's foreign ministry in May, saying it had legitimised the junta and raised doubts about South Korea's ban.

Myanmar has been in crisis since the military ousted an elected government led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, with most Western governments isolating the generals and cutting off arms sales but others, including Russia and China, maintaining close relations.

"Our government has been still strictly implementing countermeasures against Myanmar since they were announced shortly after the outbreak of the crisis, including a ban on exports of military supplies, and there is no change in this position," the South Korean ministry said in a statement.

Andrews had said in a letter to South Korea's diplomatic mission in Geneva that the envoy's "participation in the event legitimises an illegal and brutal military junta".

The invitation to Thant Sin also "raises doubts" about South Korea's ban on arms exports to Myanmar and could imply its intention to permit the sale, despite the junta's responsibility for attacks on civilians, Andrews said.

South Korea's Geneva-based diplomatic mission said last month the invitation was sent to all countries in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations in line with "established practice" and was "absolutely unrelated" to its policy towards Myanmar's military.

Close U.S. ally South Korea had not conducted any arms transactions with Myanmar since 2019 but operates major development projects there.

Andrews, following a visit to South Korea in November, urged it to take even stronger action to deny the Myanmar junta legitimacy and help reverse the crisis.

(Reporting by Hyonhee Shin; editing by Robert Birsel)
Shanghai homebuyers warn of mortgage boycott as property crisis spreads to mainland China's financial and commercial hub


South China Morning Post
Tue, August 8, 2023 

Dozens of homebuyers in Shanghai have threatened to stop repaying mortgages as they protest against a developer's delay in handing over flats, evoking memories of a nationwide boycott about a year ago that spread to more than a hundred cities as builders were behind schedule due to tight funding and strict Covid-19 curbs.

These warnings reflect the continued stress in China's property market as the government attempts to rebalance the sector, exposing developers to completion risk and marking the first mortgage boycott threat in the mainland's financial and commercial hub where residential units have long been viewed as safe investment amid a property boom.

These boycott warnings come at a time when property sales are sinking and could further pressure the liquidity starved sector. Property sales declined 33 per cent year on year in July, extending a 17 per cent fall in June.

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The One - Rivera Shanghai, a project located on Puyi Road, Pudong, stalled construction due to a liquidity crunch it has faced since early 2022, which forced the company to miss delivery deadlines stipulated in the home purchase contracts.


A view of unfinished residential project The One - Rivera Shanghai on Puyi Road, Pudong. Photo: Zhang Shidong alt=A view of unfinished residential project The One - Rivera Shanghai on Puyi Road, Pudong. Photo: Zhang Shidong>

According to two buyers who asked not to be identified, about 100 people whose flats were not delivered on the due date have written to the developer and relevant housing and financial authorities complaining about the lapse and have warned they would stop making mortgage payments from September if construction did not resume by end-August.

"We, ordinary families, cannot withstand the losses incurred by the unfinished project," the homebuyers said in the letter that was obtained by the Post. "We made the decision [not to repay the mortgage] unless government authorities step in to ensure a resumption of construction."

The developer, Shanghai Dongying Real Estate, could not be reached for comment.

The project comprises about 300 flats in two buildings. Homes in the first building were expected to be delivered to buyers by March 12, 2022 and the delivery date for the second lot was December 10, 2022.

"The protests left local authorities red-faced because a [potential] mortgage boycott would point towards the city's unsuccessful policies governing the significant real estate market," said Bob Fu, a senior manager with property agency Baonuo in Shanghai. "It remains to be seen whether the ripple effect will spread to other projects in the city."

The One - Rivera Shanghai, located in the area within the city's Inner Ring Elevated Road, offers flats at about 110,000 yuan (US$15,293) per square metre to buyers, with prices of each unit ranging from 15 million yuan to over 30 million yuan.

Flats built in areas within the inner ring road are popular with local homebuyers partly because of the government's price cap on new homes. Those new flats are often priced at a 10 to 20 per cent discount to those pre-owned units in the neighbourhood.

Buyers sign housing contracts, or sales of partially built homes, with developers, and start repaying mortgages before homes are delivered when construction is complete.

China's ailing real estate sector, along with related industries such as home appliances and construction materials, accounts for about a quarter of the country's economy.

Beijing's austerity measures to reduce developers' leverage ratios in 2020 resulted in a wave of bond and loan defaults involving developers from China Evergrande Group to Kaisa Group Holdings.

About 50 mainland developers have defaulted on some US$100 billion worth of offshore bonds over the past two years, according to a JPMorgan report in December, with 39 seeking restructuring plans with creditors for US$117 billion in stressed debt.

In August 2022, buyers of more than 320 residential projects in 100 cities collectively refused to make mortgage repayments on unfinished projects, according to real-time updates on "WeNeedHome" on GitHub, Microsoft's collaborative code-sharing platform.

Luxury homes in Shanghai have come under pressure amid worries about China's faltering economy, with some sellers cutting prices by up to 20 per cent to attract buyers, according to property agencies and consultancies.

Last November, Beijing rolled out a 16-point rescue plan for the property ­market, under which the banking regulators injected trillions of yuan into the property sector.

In July this year, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-rural Development, said loosening measures, including lower mortgage financing rates and reduced down payment ratios, would be implemented to spur a market recovery while China's statistics bureau spokesman Fu Linghui said it was only a temporary setback as the industry clean-up had created turbulence. A resolution is around the corner, which could be a harbinger of long-term stability for the industry, he added.

"We have to think about the contingent impact if confidence collapses. That's the worst case," said analysts at Goldman Sachs in a note last year, highlighting that the cost for the government to eliminate completion risk was around 600 billion yuan.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2023 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2023. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

China's property sector is in dire straits as yet another developer reportedly runs into trouble


Joseph Wilkins
Tue, August 8, 2023 

A man walks outside a property agency featuring posters of the 
latest high-rise apartment buildings in Hong Kong 
Tyrone Siu/Reuters

The Chinese property sector has been under the gun for years.

Enormous losses, heavy debt burdens, and low demand all plague the industry, and firms keep failing.

Country Garden is the latest to wobble, as Bloomberg reports investors say they haven't received bond repayments


China's property sector continues to unravel as another developer falls behind on its debt payments, according to Bloomberg.

Country Garden Holdings – once China's largest developer by sales – failed to make coupon payments due Monday, investors who hold the firm's notes told Bloomberg.

The missed payments amount to $10.5 million of interest on a dollar bond maturing in 2026 and $12 million on another note maturing in 2030, per the report.

Country Garden is one of the few remaining private developers still standing after a years-long downturn in the country's property sector. Last month, Shimao Group defaulted on its debt, announcing losses of $6.8 billion.

While Evergrande, China's largest developer, reported a whopping $81 billion two-year loss in July – a figure almost triple the GDP of Iceland. The firm's collapse back in 2021 reverberated through global markets when it failed to repay its debt pile – and in the two years that followed, this has had dire consequences for the nation's property market.

Country Garden's woes arrive in spite of the Chinese government's pledge to rescue the embattled industry. Last week Chinese real estate stocks won a reprieve as Beijing pledged bond financing support to some of the country's largest companies – and in attendance at the meeting were executives from the firm itself.

But the long-awaited commitment by the central bank to stimulate the slumping sector may arrive too late, at least for Country Garden. The two bonds include a 30-day grace period before the missed coupon payments are classed as in default, according to bond prospectuses seen by Bloomberg.

China's property sector accounts for about a fifth of the country's overall economy. Its headwinds include heavy debt burdens, sluggish demand for new property, and potential homebuyers prioritizing saving instead. This helped to stunt second-quarter GDP growth, which came in at 6.3%, well below forecasts of up to 7.1%.