NATO NATION BUILDING;HOW'S THAT GOING

Libya floods: warlord using disaster response to exert control, say observers

Khalifa Haftar and Libyan National Army militia said to be overseeing humanitarian relief arriving in city of Derna

Ruth Michaelson

THE GUARDIAN

Sun 17 Sep 2023 

As search and rescue teams continue to hunt for bodies trapped underneath the mud and rubble of their homes in the Libyan coastal city of Derna, observers say the warlord Khalifa Haftar and his sons are using the disaster response as a way to exert control rather than ensure vital humanitarian relief reaches civilians.

At least 11,300 people have died and more than 10,000 are missing, according to the Libyan Red Crescent, after two dams burst during a powerful storm last week.

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‘Towns were erased’: Libyan reporters on the ‘horrifying, harrowing’ aftermath of floods

The resulting floods have completely destroyed almost 900 buildings in Derna, according to the country’s National Unity government, based in the north-western city of Tripoli. More than 200 buildings were partly damaged and almost 400 others were completely submerged in mud, it added, meaning that a quarter of all buildings in Derna had been affected by the flooding.

Desperate rescue efforts continued in an attempt to find any remaining survivors as bodies continued to wash up on the shoreline. First responders on the ground often worked while surrounded by militants from the Libyan National Army, a sprawling military coalition loyal to Haftar, amid what observers described as efforts to keep an iron grip over vital assistance arriving in the crisis-stricken city.
An aerial view of the devastation of Derna, Libya, 17 September 2023. Photograph: Halil Fidan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Public access to the centre of Derna, worst-affected by the flooding, has been shut off, and the city has been officially declared a disaster zone. Derna’s citizens are struggling to survive without access to electricity, safe drinking water or food.


‘The waters carried my son away in front of my eyes’: anguished Libyans mourn lost loved ones

Late last week, the head of Libya’s parliament based in the east, Osama Hamad, said the authorities were considering sealing off the entire city, which once housed 100,000 people, fearing the spread of water-borne diseases.

“Essentially there is a military presence that is creating bottlenecks rather than being conducive to the provision of relief,” said Emadeddin Badi, an analyst on Libya with the Atlantic Council. “The main thrust of relief efforts was not facilitated by the military leadership, which had a vested interest in appearing in control while skirting responsibility and victim-blaming, but instead by volunteers, medical teams, Red Crescent, boy scouts and foreign search and rescue teams.”

Haftar, who has spearheaded a military campaign to unilaterally control much of eastern Libya since 2014, toured Derna on Friday. He praised the actions of first responders as well as members of the LNA, a coalition of militias overseen by the ageing former CIA asset and US citizen, whom critics accuse of running areas under his control akin to a military dictator.

“On the public relations side, they are leveraging their pre-existing propaganda channels to appear in control, while being the main interface for administering crisis relief and being the custodians of the city,” said Badi. “But again, that’s creating bottlenecks everywhere. Haftar’s visit was a microcosm of this issue, everything was frozen for an hour for a PR stunt.”

Khalifa Haftar (right) met the chief of staff of the Egyptian armed forces, Lt Gen Osama Askar, in Benghazi on 12 September. Askar arrived with a military delegation and emergency disaster relief aid, according to the Egyptian defence ministry. 

Photograph: Egyptian defence ministry/AFP/Getty Images

Haftar’s sons, each of whom also controls their own broad networks of financial and sometimes military interests in eastern Libya, have responded to the humanitarian crisis in Derna by seeking to further exert control over the disaster response. On the same day that disaster struck Derna, Khalifa Haftar’s eldest son, Elseddik, declared his interest in running for president of Libya in long-delayed elections.

Observers said 32-year-old Saddam Haftar, often seen as the likely heir despite his brothers’ efforts, quickly used his role as the head of Libya’s disaster response committee to legitimise his international standing while keeping a tight grip on aid.

Saddam Haftar heads the Tariq Ben Zayed brigades, a militia that is part of the LNA and was recently accused by Amnesty International of “inflicting a catalogue of horrors, including unlawful killings, torture and other ill-treatment, enforced disappearance, rape and other sexual violence, and forced displacement – with no fear of consequences”.

Jalel Harchaoui, a specialist on Libya and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, pointed to Saddam Haftar’s efforts to demonstrate control over international aid teams arriving in Derna and how this has slowed vital disaster response in a time of crisis: “Everything is concentrated in the hands of the Haftar family. I wish I could tell you that there are other power centres in eastern Libya, but there’s no such thing.”

For much of the past decade Libya has remained fiercely divided between eastern and western factions with their own patchwork of military interests, after a military intervention by Nato forces to support an uprising against the former dictator Muammar Gaddafi.

Harchaoui said the Haftar clan’s control over response efforts, particularly the prominent role of Saddam Haftar, provided little hope that any domestic or international investigation into the loss of life in Derna could fully scrutinise their roles as the officials in charge, as well as any others responsible.

The Libyan prosecutor general, al-Sediq al-Sour, promised to investigate the collapse of both dams in Derna, as well as the allocation of millions of dollars in funding intended to maintain the structures, which were built in the 1970s. While pledging to investigate local authorities in Derna and previous governments, al-Sour also met with Saddam Haftar. Local television reported that Derna’s mayor was suspended pending investigation on Saturday.

“Saddam is positioning himself as the boss. You need to physically access victims and the city, and to do that they depend on his goodwill,” said Harchaoui. “Slowly things are orienting towards one conclusion, which is that only mid-level officials can be blamed. A large part of the conclusion is excluded from the start, it’s not an open investigation.”

Marxists.org

https://www.marxists.org/archive/bordiga/works/1951/murder.htm

Murder of the Dead by Amadeo Bordiga 1951 

Murder of the Dead. First Published: Battaglia Comunista No. 24 1951; Source ... death, as in Diodorus Siculus. The appetite for surplus labour (Capital Vol ...

Populists are bad for our economic health, yet they’re still a hard habit to break

They are annoyingly good at politics but terrible at economics – GDP and living standards plummet in countries led by them

Torsten Bell
Sun 17 Sep 2023 

Global politics might not feel quite as grim as it did a few years back, but there’s still a lot of populism around: about a quarter of countries are led by populists. Silvio Berlusconi may be dead, but Giorgia Meloni is running the show in Italy. Donald Trump wants back into the White House (it’s cosier than jail), and are we really confident that arch-centrist Emmanuel Macron in France won’t be followed by Marine Le Pen? Even the pope is worried about a libertarian former sex-coach taking power in Argentina.

I raise this because it should encourage anti-populists to focus on addressing the bad economic outcomes that help drive populism. If you need further encouragement, it should come from recognising the scale of bad economic outcomes that follow populists actually coming to power.

Fascinating/depressing German research tracked 51 populist presidents/prime ministers from 1900-2020 in 60 countries. They are defined as those whose central argument is one of the “true people” v “dishonest” elites, and the bad news is their number has been on the rise for three decades. Worse, once they get into office they tend to stay for twice as long as non-populists. They are annoyingly good at politics, but very bad at economics. The researchers find that having a populist leader hits a country’s GDP per capita and living standards by about 10% over 15 years as the economy turns inward, institutions are undermined and risks are taken with macroeconomic policy. And there’s a specific warning for the likes of the US: once you’ve had one in power, populist leaders repeat on you (Argentina and Ecuador have had on-off populist leaders for decades). So populists are like cigarettes. It’s not the first one that does you in, but getting addicted to them that kills you.

Torsten Bell is chief executive of the Resolution Foundation. Read more at resolutionfoundation.org

Who lives and who dies in the world’s next pandemic should not depend on where they live

Aids and Covid had the worst impact in poorer countries and communities; a new health accord must address this

Michael Marmot
THE GUARDIAN 
Sun 17 Sep 2023 

The Covid pandemic was an equivocator with global unity – to misquote the porter in Macbeth. We were united in being affected by the pandemic but both its effects and the responses to it were grossly unequal. More, inequality worsens pandemics, not only current pandemics such as Aids and Covid but those yet to come.

Governments are looking to address one side of this equivocation through their negotiations on a pandemic accord that will be discussed during the UN general assembly in New York this month. Such a development is welcome and much needed. It is the other side, inequality, that is missing from the draft pandemic treaty and from governments’ pandemic preparedness plans. If lessons are learned, the next pandemic can be made less tragic in its effects.

It is to bring the lessons from the Aids response and other pandemics that UNAids took the initiative to convene a Global Council on Inequality, Aids and Pandemics. I am co-chairing it with Monica Geingos, first lady of Namibia, and Joseph Stiglitz, the economist and a professor at Columbia University in New York, with a diverse group of leaders from civil society, academia, government and international organisations, to review the evidence and propose new action.
The greater the inequality within a country, the higher the death rate from Aids and Covid

The global council will seek to influence pandemic preparedness efforts by showing the evidence of three ways in which inequality can be considered: how it drives pandemics; in access to diagnostics, vaccines and treatments; and exclusion of marginalised communities from engagement in designing their own welfare. Solutions must be found to all three.

Say the word “health” in the context of action and a common reaction is to think of the healthcare system. But social determinants are crucial in driving health inequalities. A new paper, led by John Ele-Ojo Ataguba, executive director of the African Health Economics and Policy Association, building on work on income inequalities and health, examined the relation between income disparities and HIV incidence and Aids mortality in 217 countries, and excess deaths linked to Covid in 151 countries.

In Africa, where HIV prevalence and Aids deaths are particularly high, and in the rest of the world, there was a link between income inequality and health: the greater the inequality within a country, the higher the HIV incidence, Aids mortality and Covid excess deaths. It is important to understand how this link comes about. One possibility is that the greater the inequality, the greater the deprivation, covering the spectrum from nutrition to education to life chances. Second, greater inequality is linked to lower social cohesion and trust, which make social action to deal with pandemics much more difficult. Third, inequality is linked to a politics that serves special interests against the interests of the whole population, especially marginalised communities.

More generally, we want the treaty to address the social determinants of health. Countries that are taking the social actions necessary to reduce health inequalities are likely to be those that are better prepared to handle the pandemic. In the US and the UK, for example, Covid mortality was higher in subgroups of the population that already had higher risk of ill health. Covid amplified these pre-existing inequalities.

A second major strategy to address inequality between countries is to make commitments to fix the vastly unequal supply of treatments and vaccines available globally. Among the most important of these commitments would be for the governments of the powerful states to attach conditions to the public financing they give pharmaceutical companies for research and development so the resulting technology can be shared around the world. Without these conditions, we are likely to repeat history: a situation in which a government invests more than $10bn in Covid vaccine research, resulting in the development of vaccines that are the private monopolies of pharmaceutical corporations, which are then neither shared with the world, nor even priced fairly for those who paid for them. Actions by governments to limit pharmaceutical monopolies have saved millions of lives in the Aids pandemic by requiring that technology and generic medicines be shared around the world. Following this model could ensure that it is not the geographical location or the fiscal capacity of a state that determines who lives and dies in a pandemic.
Lower-income countries, already deep in economic crisis from the pandemic, could be even less prepared for the next

Financing pandemic preparedness and response is a key factor in a world where countries have highly unequal resources, whether for buying tests and vaccines or for the upgrades in health infrastructure that can deliver them to people. We are in a world in which lower-income countries, already in deep economic crisis from the pandemic, could be even less prepared for the next, with no plan to address their levels of debt, let alone access more funds to strengthen their health systems and tackle Aids and tuberculosis. Two serious efforts are needed: a clear commitment to a pandemic response fund that would be triggered when a pandemic is declared; and a major effort to address unequal access to financing – in the short term to remove the massive debt burden hampering many countries’ ability to invest in preparedness and in the long term so that lower-income countries have equal access to affordable credit in times of crisis.

A third part of a strategy to deal with inequalities is to learn from the Aids pandemic the importance of including marginalised communities in responses; and to engage everyone in decision-making. It is important to fund community-led services to reach populations that the state cannot. Key commitments should include ending punitive laws including criminalisation of marginalised groups and developing strategies for greater equity related to gender, disability and sexual orientation.

We have a real challenge to global cooperation. High-income countries may be reluctant to make the financial guarantees necessary and their pharmaceutical industries reluctant to do what is needed. In the absence of such commitments, low- and middle-income countries may be reluctant to cooperate in sharing vital data that is necessary for managing a global pandemic. Addressing inequality is an opportunity to make real progress. This pandemic treaty is an opportunity for tangible steps towards a fairer world, with potential benefits for the health of people everywhere.

Michael Marmot is professor of epidemiology at University College London, director of the UCL Institute of Health Equity, and past president of the World Medical Association

Epigenetics and evolution: ‘the significant biological puzzle’ of sexual orientation

The ‘gay gene’ some touted as explaining widespread homosexuality in humans has not been found. Might epigenetics hold the answer?

Benjamin Oldroyd

THE GUARDIAN AUSTRALIA

Sun 17 Sep 2023 

Last century, when things were a whole lot worse for gay people than they are today, there was a widely held notion that human homosexual behaviour was a choice, and that a homosexual person could change their ways and become heterosexual. For this reason, the occasional report of a “gay” gene was welcomed by many progressive people. The existence of such genes would show that homosexuality was not a choice but an inevitable consequence of development and genetics. Indeed, gay genes were perhaps the only example where many left-leaning people heartily embraced genetic determinism.

Awkwardly, like cold fusion, reports of genes that “cause” human homosexuality (and many other human behaviours) have failed to stand up to scrutiny – there is no “gay gene” in the sense that no one has identified genetic markers or genes that reliably predict sexual orientation in humans. Moreover, since homosexuality would generally be reckoned to reduce reproductive output of an individual, an allele (a gene variant) that directly causes homosexuality is unlikely to spread in a population.

Epigenetic inheritance remains a tantalising possibility

Nonetheless, human homosexuality in both sexes is widespread, as it is across the animal kingdom. One study estimated that 3.2% of the Australian human population identifies as gay or lesbian, a frequency that is typical across the world. Despite the lack of genetic markers that are predictive of human homosexuality, the trait is highly heritable in the sense that siblings are more similar in their sexual orientation than expected by chance. However, the level of concordance between identical twins is surprisingly low.

Here’s an anecdotal example. I once had a friend who was the president of Gay Liberation in Victoria as a young man during the 1970s. “Fred”, now deceased, had a prominent scar on his forehead, a legacy of being beaten up in a country town where he had been invited to speak about his cause. (The burghers of the town were waiting to pick him up at the station, with evil intent.) Yet Fred’s identical twin was not gay. So much for genetic determinism. If homosexuality was solely genetically determined, identical twins should have identical sexual orientation.

The widespread occurrence of homosexuality in humans and other animals, together with its high heritability but unpredictable genetics and lack of genetic markers, is a significant biological puzzle. There are three leading hypotheses for the common existence of homosexuality in human populations, one based on kin selection, one on sexually antagonistic alleles, and one on epigenetic inheritance.

Briefly, the kin selection idea is that a gene that promotes homosexual behaviour can spread in a population if homosexual people contribute significantly to the reproduction of close relatives. Although this idea is plausible, the lack of any genetic marker that is reliably associated with sexual orientation is a strong argument against it.


Epigenetics, the misunderstood science that could shed new light on ageing

The “antagonistic alleles” idea is that there are certain genes that are selected in different directions, that is, positively selected in males, but negatively selected in females and vice versa. Hypothetically, because no such gene has been identified, a gene that promotes testosterone production could be at a selective advantage in males if it promoted traits such as muscle development, risk taking, opposite-sex sexual attraction and increased sexual attractiveness to females. But if the same gene were expressed in the same way in females it might be disadvantageous for reciprocal reasons. This means that selection could pull in different directions in males and females, maintaining different gene variants in a population. By that I mean, gene variants that have different selective advantages in males and females can potentially coexist in a population because neither is unambiguously better. If so, sexual orientation may be more fluid than one might expect based on biological sex alone. (Well, “der”, I suspect you are now thinking, but please don’t shoot your even-handed messenger.)

Finally, we have an epigenetic hypothesis. Epigenetics is the transfer of genetic information between generations, which is not coded in DNA. In most mammals, male sexual development is determined by SrY, a gene on the Y chromosome. SrY codes a protein that interacts with other genes to reverse the default development of an embryo’s gonads from an oestrogen-producing ovary into a testosterone-producing testis. Thus, the short story of mammalian sexual development is that if a foetus is bathed in oestrogen produced by its default ovaries, it develops a female body. But if it is bathed in testosterone from its newly converted testes, it develops as a male.

Well, that’s a nice cut-and-dried story of genetic determinism, isn’t it?

I cheerfully taught it in my first-year biology classes for more than two decades, in full knowledge that the story is more complex. For example, if an individual’s testosterone production is defective, a genetic male (based on their possession of a Y chromosome and SrY gene) will develop as a female. Indeed, such individuals may be hyper-female, since they do not produce or respond to testosterone, whereas genetic females do both.

Even more extraordinary is a rare syndrome caused by a deficiency of the enzyme 5α-reductase. This enzyme converts testosterone to a more potent male-determining hormone. These kids, who are chromosomally male, are born with female-like genitalia and are often raised as girls. They then change to the male phenotype at puberty with its associated release of testosterone. Not only do male foetuses produce more androgens than female foetuses, they respond to it more strongly due to sex-specific epigenetic marks in genes that code for androgen receptors. Conversely, female foetuses produce less androgen and have reduced responsiveness to it. It is even possible for a genetically female foetus to have levels of circulating androgens in the male range but still develop as a female. So, while the primary cause of male bodies from female bodies is indeed SrY, other genes on the sex chromosomes can modify its effects.

Beyond DNA by Benjamin Oldroyd. 

Photograph: Melbourne University Press


The epigenetic hypothesis for the widespread occurrence of human homosexuality is based on the possibility of epigenetic inheritance of adjustments to a foetus’s testosterone sensitivity. Like most other epigenetic marks, sex-specific epigenetic marks are established anew in the early embryo following fertilisation.

Thus, most of the sex-specific epigenetic marks on genes that are involved in testosterone sensitivity are scrubbed off and re-established in a reliably sex-specific pattern well before the gonads become differentiated into either testes or ovaries. However, not all epigenetic marks are completely erased during embryo development, and it is therefore possible that there is some transgenerational transfer of epigenetic settings for testosterone sensitivity. This could affect sexual phenotype, sexual identity and sexual attraction.

This is a potentially important idea because it may explain the strong tendency for twins to have similar sexual preferences, but for this tendency to be no stronger between identical twins than it is between non-identical twins. This suggests epigenetic inheritance from one or other parent, but not genetic inheritance. If it were solely genetic, we would expect identical twins to be much more likely to share their sexual preferences than non-identical twins.

So, to the extent to which human homosexuality is the question, epigenetic inheritance remains a tantalising possibility.

This is an edited extract from Beyond DNA – How Epigenetics is Transforming our Understanding of Evolution, by Benjamin Oldroyd (MUP).


Benjamin Oldroyd is emeritus professor of behavioural genetics at the University of Sydney

WAR PROFITEERING

Halliburton equipment worth $7.1m imported into Russia in past year, customs records show

Exclusive: US oil multinationals face questions over trade with Russia amid pressure to cease operations

Daniel Boffey 

Chief reporter

THE GUARDIAN

Sun 17 Sep 2023 

US oil and gas multinationals are facing fresh questions over their trade with Russia after customs records revealed that more than $7.1m (£5.7m) worth of equipment manufactured by Halliburton has been imported into the country since it announced the end of its Russian operations.

Last September Halliburton, one of the world’s largest providers of products and services for oil and gas exploration, sold its Russian office to local management amid pressure on all US companies to cease their trade after the invasion of Ukraine.

Russian customs records seen by the Guardian show that despite this move to sell up on 8 September, Halliburton subsidiaries exported equipment of a value of $5,729,600 to its former operation in Russia in the six weeks that followed the sale.

The equipment was largely shipped from the US and Singapore although the records show it originated in a range of countries, including the UK, Belgium and France.

The bulk of exports from the subsidiaries ended on 6 October but the last shipment to Russia from a Halliburton company, recorded as Halliburton MFG in the records, was of a sealing element priced at $2,939.40 on 24 October 2022 from Malaysia to a firm called Sakhalin Energy, a consortium that is developing the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project in eastern Russian. Its investors include Gazprom. Shell disinvested from the consortium after the invasion of Ukraine.

After a short pause, imports of Halliburton equipment to Russia then resumed in December 2022 from two companies unrelated to the US multinational.

The products were imported from Turkey, bringing the total value of exports of Halliburton equipment to Russia since the company closed its operations to at least $7,163,317.

Of all the exports to Russia made since last September, 98% were supplied to Halliburton’s newly independent former operation, known as BurService, whose clients have included Gazprom, Rosneft, TNK-BP and Lukoil.

According to customs records, exports to Russia of Halliburton equipment, which range in type from pumps, to wrenches for the drilling of wells, and cement additives, continued until at least the end of June this year. More recent records are yet to be made available.

There is exasperation in Ukraine at the lethargy of many large industrial players in the west in extracting themselves from the Russian economy.


The findings illustrate the difficulties multinational companies have had in unpicking their trading relationships and in controlling the distribution of their products via third parties.

Some of the world’s largest US oil and gas field service companies are already facing questions over their conduct. The Kremlin is heavily dependent on its oil and gas sector for the revenue that funds its military.

Earlier this month, the head of the US Senate foreign relations committee, Bob Menendez, wrote to Halliburton and their competitors SLB and Baker Hughes, after reports that the companies had continued to trade with Russia to various degrees after the invasion of Ukraine in February last year.

Menendez, in letters to the chief executives of the three companies, said he was “extremely disturbed” by an AP report that sales had continued in 2022. He accused the management of seeking to “make a profit” rather stand in solidarity with Ukraine.

Baker Hughes sold its oilfield services business in Russia nine months after the invasion. SLB, which reportedly had 9,000 employees working in Russia, announced only in July this year that it would stop exporting technology to Russia.

There is no suggestion that any of the companies breached the sanctions regime of the US or its western partners.

It is understood that the sale date of Halliburton’s operations in Russia was not fixed until late in the day, which may account for those shipments from its subsidiaries that left for the country shortly before and soon after 8 September.

A spokesperson for Halliburton said: “Halliburton was the first major oilfield services company to exit Russia, in full compliance with sanctions. It has been more than a year since we have conducted operations there.

“Halliburton wound down its Russia operations and completed the sale of its Russia business in less than six months while prioritising safety and securing the necessary government approvals, including for shipments to Russia. Halliburton no longer conducts operations in Russia.”

Halliburton, which was led by the former US vice-president Dick Cheney, posted a gross profit for the 12 months ending 30 June 2023 of $4.052bn, a 63.19% increase year-on-year despite writing off $300m on the sale of the Russian operation.

Glib Kanevskyi, chief executive of the Kyiv-based thinktank StateWatch, said that western governments needed to do more to persuade their large companies to better control the distribution of products which could be useful to the Russian economy.

He added that companies such as Halliburton should be encouraged to be transparent about how they are ensuring their products are being kept out of the Russian market.

Kanevskyi said: “When we talk about the Halliburton case, we need to understand that it cannot be effective if, for example, the USA or other countries will try to punish some company involved in this scheme to ship Halliburton equipment to Russia. It cannot be effective in my opinion.

“If the international community will collaborate and involve businesses then it can be helpful. It’s not easy. What countries can do today is dialogue with its own businesses. If we talk about Halliburton it is a serious player in the world and the US government can have a conversation with it and see how it can better control its distribution process”.

Climate crisis

Tens of thousands in NYC march against fossil fuels as AOC hails powerful message

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said the crowd must become ‘too big and too radical to ignore’ as Biden came under fire for oil projects

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks at the rally at the finish of the march to end fossil fuels in New York on 17 September 2023. Photograph: Bryan Woolston/AP

Dharna Noor and Aliya Uteuova in New York

THE GUARDIAN

Sun 17 Sep 2023 

Tens of thousands of climate activists took to the streets of New York City on Sunday in a “march to end fossil fuels”, with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez telling the crowd that the movement must become “too big and too radical to ignore”.

To cheers from the crowd, the progressive Democrat criticized the US continuing to approve fossil fuel projects, something which the Biden administration did earlier this year with the controversial Willow project in Alaska.

“We are all here for one reason: to end fossil fuels around the planet,” Ocasio-Cortez told a rally at the finish of the march, which ended close to the UN headquarters where world leaders will gather this week. “And the way we create urgency is to have people around the world in the streets.”

She said: “The United States continues to be approving a record number of fossil fuel leases and we must send a message, right here today,” adding that despite record profits the support for the fossil fuel industry was “starting to buckle and crack.”

Climate action requires a democratic restructuring of the economy, she said. “What we’re not gonna do is go from oil barons to solar barons.”

Organizers estimated that between 50,000 and 75,000 people attended the march in Manhattan and had anticipated it would be the biggest climate march in the US in the past five years. The NYPD said it did not comment on crowd numbers.

People march to end fossil fuels in New York City on 17 September 2023. 

Photograph: Justin Lane/EPA

“This is an incredible moment,” said Jean Su of the Center for Biological Diversity, who helped organize the mobilization. “Tens of thousands of people are marching in the streets of New York because they want climate action, and they understand Biden’s expansion of fossil fuels is squandering our last chance to avoid climate catastrophe.”

She said the action was the largest climate protest in the US since the start of the pandemic.

“This also shows the tremendous grit and fight of the people, especially youth and communities living at the frontlines of fossil fuel violence, to fight back and demand change for the future they have every right to lead,” she said.

The march came as world leaders gather for this week’s UN general assembly, and a UN climate ambition summit on Wednesday, which the UN secretary general, António Guterres, has described as a “no nonsense” conference meant to highlight new climate commitments.

On Friday, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said President Biden was not currently scheduled to take part in Wednesday’s UN climate summit. Biden has been praised by climate activists for last year passing a historic $369bn climate law but criticized for allowing oil drilling projects and the expansion of gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

A decision for Biden to stay away from the UN climate ambition summit is “unacceptable”, said Su of the Center for Biological Diversity. “The time is now for Biden to lead on the world stage, and show he means it when he calls climate change the existential threat to humanity.”

During the march, the Rev Lennox Yearwood, head of the Hip Hop Caucus, likened today’s climate movement to the US fight for racial justice. “We’re at our lunch counter moment for the 21st century,” he said. A native of Louisiana, he said he was excited to see demonstrators support environmental justice activists’ fight to end petrochemical buildout in the south-west US. “We need to end fossil fuels in all forms,” he said.

Indigenous leaders gathered to defend the climate.

Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Youth climate activist Vanessa Nakate, from Uganda, said: “When we say that we want climate justice, we’re not just talking about transitioning to solar panels. We are talking about leaving no one behind when you’re talking about addressing the injustices that come with the climate crisis.

Actor and climate activist Susan Sarandon opened her speech by congratulating the students of New York University on the news of their university divesting from fossil fuels after years of pressure, as the Guardian first reported last week. Addressing the crowd, she said, “You guys give me hope,” adding: “What we have to do is take responsibility and press those that are at the top to finally step up.”

Veteran environmental activist Bill McKibben travelled to New York City to attend the march.

“I think it’s a real restart moment after the pandemic for the big in-the-streets climate movement,” he said. “It’s good to see people get back out there.”

The crowd, he said, reflected the diversity of New York City. “I’m glad to see there’s a lot of old people like me here,” said McKibben, who founded Third Act, an activist group aimed at elders. “We’ll be marching in the back because we’re slow!”

More than 650 global climate actions took place earlier this week; earlier on Sunday activists sprayed orange paint on to the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, Germany.

Youth-led organizations, including Greta Thunberg’s Fridays for Future, played leading roles in organizing the mobilizations.

Additional climate protests will be held throughout the following week, including at New York City’s Zuccotti Park on Monday morning.

UK

GOOD NEWS
‘Limited’ evidence that pay rises are to blame for inflation of goods, ONS says

Daniel O'Boyle
Fri, 15 September 2023 

There is “limited” evidence that rising wages are responsible for the higher cost of goods, the ONS said today, though it warned that pay may be to blame for rising costs of certain services (Evening Standard composite)

There is “limited” evidence that rising wages are responsible for the higher cost of goods, the ONS said today, though it warned that pay may be to blame for rising costs of certain services.

Fast-rising wages have been a major subject of concern for the Bank of England, which fears the public’s pay is rising too fast to bring inflation back down to the 2% target.

In the spring, the Bank’s chief economist Huw Pill urged the public to not ask for raises. Since then, the pace of pay rises has only surged faster, to 8.5% year-on-year in the three months to July.

Yet the ONS’ latest analysis, based on the Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey, and the Producer Price Inquiry, suggested that wages are not driving prices up for goods, though they may be for some services.

The official statistics body said that there is “usually there is no correlation between output price growth and wage growth” within manufacturing of goods. Although it noted that there did appear to be a correlation for a large part of this year, that followed a negative relationship between the two, and “dissipated” more recently.

“Despite wage increases, there are enough products where the output price has stopped growing or started falling so that we do not see a correlation,” the ONS said. It added that “industry output price growth has appeared to be mainly caused by other factors”.

For many services, though, where labour tends to be the main expense, the ONS said “labour costs have likely been passed through [to customers] completely”.

“In accountancy, law, management consultancy, advertising, architecture and engineering, technical testing, security and office administration, output prices have increased almost exactly in line with the theoretical scenario impact of labour costs,” it said.

But the ONS added that those sectors”still have relatively low price increases”. On the other hand, sectors such as hotels, warehousing and air transport, where price rises have been steepest, saw less of an impact from wages.

UK
Ban on no-fault evictions to be delayed as landlord MPs push back

Ruby Hinchliffe
Fri, 15 September 2023 

Conservatives hope Michael Gove’s Renters Reform Bill will be a vote winner with ‘generation renters’ - Justin Tallis/AFP

Michael Gove’s bill to protect renters is unlikely to see the light of day before the year is out, as backbench MPs continue to push against it and parliamentary sitting days become fewer and fewer.

The levelling up secretary’s team has said a “second reading will follow shortly”, and sources say the department is confident it will happen before the King’s Speech at the beginning of November.

But industry sources say Number 10 is “less confident”. One said Downing Street is concerned about the lack of available sitting days before the King’s Speech on November 7.

If the second reading does not happen before this date, then the bill will not be able to be granted royal assent. It would then be carried over into next year.

Swathes of backbench MPs are also fervently opposed to the bill. One told the Telegraph: “There’s incredible resistance from certain MPs. Until such time as everyone is assuaged, it’s not going to get very far.”

Asked how many politicians are opposed to the bill at present, the MP said the number was “huge” and has been growing since the bill was first published.

Renters’ Reform Bill: 10 key changes

Some 87 MPs declared income from 167 English homes earning over £10,000 in rent this year, according to research published by not-for-profit 38 Degrees earlier this year. This equates to around 20pc of Conservative MPs.

Landlords fear Gove’s bill – which promises to get rid of Section 21 ‘no fault’ evictions and introduce rolling tenancies – could put too much power in the hands of non-paying tenants, leaving them at the whim of an already overburdened court system to gain back control of their properties.

The Financial Times reported that five of the 16 members in the government whips’ office, which decides what bills are tabled for further readings, own rental property.

With a general election looming next year, prime minister Rishi Sunak is under pressure to deliver on his party’s manifesto commitments – the Renters Reform Bill being one of those.

Conservatives are hoping that the legislation, which was introduced to Parliament in May, will be a Generation Rent vote-winner.

A cornerstone of the legislation is the scrapping of Section 21, or ‘no-fault’ evictions, which will make it harder for landlords to remove tenants who refuse to pay rent or trash the property.

Backbench Tory MPs fear the new laws could prompt swathes of landlords to exit the market, which they say would constrain rental housing supply and lead to a full-blown housing crisis.

The National Residential Landlords Association has called on a separate judicial court to be set up just to deal with the housing sector. But government sources say this is simply not on the cards.

A spokesperson for the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said: “The Government remains absolutely committed to delivering a fairer private rented sector for tenants and landlords through the Renters Reform Bill.

“The bill which delivers our manifesto commitment is progressing through parliament and second reading will follow shortly.”

Number 10 declined to comment.

BAT SHIT IS NASTY

Can the British American Tobacco dividend keep growing for decades?


Christopher Ruane

Motley Fool UK 2023
Fri, 15 September 2023 

Image source: Getty Images

A couple of decades ago, one of the attractions of buying shares in British American Tobacco (LSE: BATS) was the company’s juicy dividend, funded by massive cash flows. Fast forward 20 years and what has happened to the British American Tobacco dividend?

It has risen every single year over the past 20 years.

The most recent increase was this year’s 6% boost. Not only that, but the 8% yield is close to record highs.

The current weak share price (down 28% in five years) and high yield may suggest that many investors have doubts about the long-term outlook for the debt-laden producer of a product facing structural demand decline.

An alternative view is that, just as the dividend has grown annually for the past two decades, it could keep doing so.

As a British American Tobacco shareholder with skin in the game, I actually think the dividend could be set to keep growing. Here’s why.
Intent and capacity

The current management has signalled its commitment to raising the dividend annually (something known as a progressive dividend policy).

The recent increase demonstrates that in practice, while management comments on earnings conference calls are explicit about the intention.

Indeed, the company’s chief executive could not have been clearer on this point during the most recent such call. He told analysts, “We remain committed to continue our 25-year track record of consistent dividend growth, rewarding our shareholders through all economic cycles”.

But few managements stay in place for 20 years — and priorities can change.

Even if the intent remains consistent, sustaining dividend growth will require financial capacity.

Declining demand for key profit driver

In any given year, the company could simply borrow to fund dividend growth. Its adjusted net debt of £37bn makes me uncomfortable, but it is a reminder that the highly cash generative business can typically borrow money easily if it wants.

Longer term, though, sustaining dividend growth will depend on the company’s free cash flows. British American Tobacco has consistently targeted paying out around 65% of its earnings as dividends. That is a self-imposed target so it could be changed.

On one hand, declining cigarette sales are a key risk to the company’s ability to generate the free cash flow and earnings needed to keep growing its dividend. Cigarettes remain by far the biggest contributor to the company’s earnings. But the company sold 5.7% fewer cigarettes in the first half than the prior year period.
Reshaping income streams

On the other hand, the company still sells billions of cigarettes every week.

Its portfolio of premium brands gives it pricing power, helping to offset declining volumes. It is also possible to buy growth opportunities in a declining market through acquisitions, like British American’s takeover of US tobacco business Reynolds six years ago.

The company has been growing its non-cigarette business quickly. New category growth in the first half was in the double digits year on year and British American has only scratched the surface of the vaping market.

A lot can change in a short time, let alone decades. The company faces sizeable financial challenges, from managing its debt to dealing with declining cigarette sales. But I see at least a possibility that the British American Tobacco dividend could keep growing for decades.

The post Can the British American Tobacco dividend keep growing for decades? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

C Ruane has positions in British American Tobacco P.l.c. The Motley Fool UK has recommended British American Tobacco P.l.c. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M; MONETIZING DATA

TikTok fined record £300m for putting children’s privacy at risk

The fine is TikTok’s largest ever financial penalty and its first under European data rules.

Matthew Field
Fri, 15 September 2023

tiktok app

TikTok has been fined €345m (£296m) by European regulators for failing to protect children’s privacy and putting them at risk of “online exploitation or grooming”.

The Irish Data Protection Commission, the data watchdog responsible for TikTok under the bloc’s rules, found the social media network had left children’s accounts exposed to the public by default, rather than implementing stricter privacy settings for younger users.

When signing up, all TikTok users, including those under the age of 16, were able to skip an option that would have made their account more secure. Instead, by default, their account would be broadcast “to a global audience of millions”.

The fine is TikTok’s largest ever financial penalty and its first under European data rules.

In its ruling, the regulator accused TikTok of using so-called dark patterns to nudge users towards lowering their privacy settings when using the app.

The regulator said TikTok’s settings left children’s videos exposed online to “bad actors” and “dangerous individuals”. The fine related to TikTok’s policies between July 2020 and December 2020.

Helen Dixon, Ireland’s data protection commissioner, also investigated TikTok’s “family pairing” feature, introduced in April 2020, which allowed an adult user to pair with the account of a child. To do so, they had to scan a QR code on the child’s phone.

While intended to be used by parents or guardians, the data regulator found TikTok did not verify the user was a relative.

Once they were paired with another TikTok user, that user could then remotely enable direct messaging on the child’s account, provided their account said they were over the age of 16.

A TikTok spokesman said: “We respectfully disagree with the decision, particularly the level of the fine imposed.”

TikTok, which is owned by the Chinese company Bytedance, said changes had been made to the app to improve childrens’ privacy prior to the investigation. All accounts used by under 16s have been set to private by default since January 2021.

The video sharing app has been under pressure over its use of user data and been accused by US officials of posing a security risk, something TikTok denies.

The app is also facing an ongoing investigation by Ireland’s privacy watchdog that it allowed European data to be transferred to China in violation of the bloc’s data regulations.

Europe has further tightened up its rules on Big Tech giants, announcing its new Digital Services Act which adds further responsibilities to the world’s largest technology companies, including TikTok.

The European fine follows a £12.7m fine levied by Britain’s Information Commissioner’s Office. The regulator said between May 2018 and July 2020 TikTok had offered its services to children under the age of 13 without parental consent. TikTok said it disagreed with the decision.

Elaine Fox, TikTok’s head of privacy for Europe, said: “We will not hesitate to make significant changes to product features and processes to ensure TikTok meets the high standard of European safety and privacy regulation.”

The data watchdog also found TikTok had not done enough to properly assess the risk of users under the age of 13 gaining access to its app and having their data exposed.