Wednesday, October 25, 2023

 

UN study reveals the hidden environmental impacts of bitcoin: Carbon is not the only harmful byproduct


The global Bitcoin mining network is highly dependent on fossil fuels, having worrying impacts on water and land in addition to a significant carbon footprint, warns the new UN assessment.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY

Bitcoin Mining's Global Energy Supply Mix 

IMAGE: 

CONTRIBUTIONS OF DIFFERENT ENERGY SOURCES IN SUPPLYING ELECTRICITY TO THE GLOBAL BTC MINING NETWORK DURING THE 2020-2021 PERIOD 

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CREDIT: UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR WATER, ENVIRONMENT AND HEALTH



Hamilton, Canada: The extraordinary rise in cryptocurrency prices over the previous decade has prompted huge investments in the cryptocurrency sector. Undeniably, digital currencies have won the faith of the world's top investors, ranging from large corporations and tech millionaires to criminals, money launderers, and sanction busters.

Thanks to blockchain and other technological breakthroughs, digital currencies now constitute an advanced element of the world’s modern financial system. They are said to even have the potential to crush the world’s strongest currencies. 

The surge in the crypto market is comparable to the gold rush. Yet, this exciting market has a hidden dark side. Mining cryptocurrencies can have major environmental impacts on climate, water, and land, according to new research by United Nations scientists. 

Bitcoin is the most renowned and popular cryptocurrency. This motivated the UN scientists to evaluate the environmental impacts of Bitcoin across the world by looking at the activities of 76 Bitcoin mining nations during the 2020–2021 period. The results are shocking. In addition to a substantial carbon footprint, global Bitcoin mining activities have significant water and land footprints.

“Technological innovations are often associated with unintended consequences and Bitcoin is no exception,” said Professor Kaveh Madani, the Director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), who led this study. “Our findings should not discourage the use of digital currencies. Instead, they should encourage us to invest in regulatory interventions and technological advancements that improve the efficiency of the global financial system without harming the environment.”

According to study results, published by the United Nations University and Earth’s Future journal, during the 2020–2021 period, the global Bitcoin mining network consumed 173.42 Terawatt hours of electricity. This means that if Bitcoin were a country, its energy consumption would have ranked 27th in the world, ahead of a country like Pakistan, with a population of over 230 million people. The resulting carbon footprint was equivalent to that of burning 84 billion pounds of coal or operating 190 natural gas-fired power plants. To offset this footprint, 3.9 billion trees should be planted, covering an area almost equal to the area of the Netherlands, Switzerland, or Denmark or 7% of the Amazon rainforest.

During this time period, Bitcoin's water footprint was similar to the amount of water required to fill over 660,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools, enough to meet the current domestic water needs of more than 300 million people in rural sub-Saharan Africa. The land footprint of worldwide Bitcoin mining activities during this period was 1.4 times the area of Los Angeles. 

The UN scientists report that Bitcoin mining heavily relies on fossil energy sources, with coal accounting for 45% of Bitcoin's energy supply mix, followed by natural gas (21%). Hydropower, a renewable energy source with significant water and environmental impacts, is the most important renewable source of energy of the Bitcoin mining network, satisfying 16% of its electricity demand. Nuclear energy has a considerable share of 9% in Bitcoin’s energy supply mix, whereas renewables such as solar and wind only provide 2% and 5% of the total electricity used by Bitcoin. 

China, by a large margin, has been the biggest Bitcoin mining nation. To offset the carbon emissions from China's coal-intensive Bitcoin mining operations in 2021–2022, about 2 billion trees should be planted, covering an area equivalent to the sum of Portugal and Ireland or 45,000 times the area of Central Park in New York City. Aside from China, the world’s top 10 Bitcoin mining nations in 2020–2021 included the United States, Kazakhstan, Russia, Malaysia, Canada, Germany, Iran, Ireland, and Singapore.

“Because countries use different sources of energy to generate electricity, their electricity production impacts on climate, water, and land are not the same,” said Dr. Sanaz Chamanara, the lead author of the study and an Environmental, Social and Governance (EGS) Research Fellow at UNU-INWEH. “The rankings of countries in terms of the environmental impacts of their Bitcoin operations change depending on which environmental footprint is considered.” 

Norway, Sweden, Thailand, and the United Kingdom are among the countries that make it to the top 10 list when the water or land footprint of their Bitcoin mining activities is taken into account.  Together, the top 10 Bitcoin mining countries in terms of environmental footprint are responsible for 92–94% of Bitcoin’s global carbon, water, and land footprints. 

The UN scientists make a range of recommendations regarding possible interventions by the governments to monitor and mitigate the environmental impacts of cryptocurrencies. They also suggest investment in other types of digital currencies that are more efficient in terms of energy use and less harmful to the environment. The investigation also calls for attention to the transboundary and transgenerational impacts of mining cryptocurrencies. “When you note which groups are currently benefiting from mining Bitcoin and which nations and generations will suffer the most from its environmental consequences, you can’t stop thinking about the inequity and injustice implications of the unregulated digital currency sector,” said Madani.

Read the paper, summarizing the main findings of the study: Chamanara, S., Ghaffarizadeh, S. A., & Madani, K. (2023). The environmental footprint of Bitcoin mining across the globe: Call for urgent action. Earth's Future, 11, e2023EF003871. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003871.  

Read the full report: Chamanara, S. & Madani, K. (2023). The Hidden Environmental Cost of Cryptocurrency: How Bitcoin Mining Impacts Climate, Water and Land, United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, https://inweh.unu.edu/

About United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH)

https://inweh.unu.edu/    

The United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health is a member of the United Nations University family of organizations. It is the UN Think Tank on Water created by the UNU Governing Council in 1996. Its mission is to help resolve pressing water challenges of concern to the UN, its Member States and their people, through knowledge-based synthesis of existing bodies of scientific discovery; cutting-edge targeted research that identifies emerging policy issues; application of on-the-ground scalable solutions based on credible research; and relevant and targeted public outreach.  UNU-INWEH is hosted by the Government of Canada in Hamilton, Ontario.

Method involving citizen participation is effective to address risks of environmental disaster


A research project showed that mobilizing citizens in flood-prone areas improves data collection and increases resilience.


Peer-Reviewed Publication

FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO




A digital map of flood-prone areas in Brazilian cities São Paulo and Rio Branco created by public school students; a history of floods recorded in a poor neighborhood of São Paulo based on the residents’ recollections; new communication channels with the Civil Defense authorities to improve the early warning system – these are some of the instruments for citizen participation and mobilization shown to be effective in initiatives to increase survival of urban disasters.

They now constitute a methodology published in an article in the scientific journal Global Environmental Change. The authors describe a three-year research project involving 17 scientists from Brazil and other countries, whose main findings were that the transformative pathways through which urban data can enable change should encompass not only the development and deployment of novel digital technologies, but also the co-production of new understandings, perspectives, social practices, and transformed governance arrangements. This, they write in the conclusion, includes a combination of data analytics with a wide range of participatory methods to enable “just and sustainable transformations”.

Climate change and rising numbers of vulnerable people worldwide have exacerbated the socio-economic and environmental impacts of disasters. As many as 1.81 billion people, or 23% of the world population, are estimated to be directly exposed to significant flood risks, but these risks are unequally distributed, with 89% of the world’s flood-exposed people living in low- and middle-income countries.

In Brazil, four in ten municipalities are vulnerable to disasters due to floods and landslides, according to the National Disaster Surveillance and Early Warning Center (CEMADEN), which currently monitors 1,038 municipalities on a daily basis and issues warnings when there is a risk of above-average rainfall.

“The article synthesizes the trajectory of a project, its conclusions, and in particular its continuation via the CEMADEN Education Program as public policy for environmental education on reducing the risk of disaster,” said João Porto de Albuquerque, first and corresponding author of the article. He is a researcher at the University of Glasgow in the United Kingdom. “Its main scientific contribution is the methodology we constructed, involving a new way of producing data with information technology and a process of co-production with communities and residents. We also took pains to make it multidisciplinary, assembling a research group that includes professionals in public administration, urban studies, geography, computer science and environmental education, as well as humanities and software development.”

The results are part of Waterproofing Data, a project involving the Universities of Glasgow and Warwick (UK), the University of Heidelberg (Germany), and CEMADEN and Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) in Brazil. The group is supported by FAPESP, UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), and Germany’s Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), in coordination with New Opportunities for Research Funding Agency Cooperation in Europe (NORFACE), the Belmont Forum, and the International Science Council.

The article received funding from FAPESP via three other projects (19/06616-019/06595-2 and 18/06093-4).

One of the most evident symptoms of the ongoing climate crisis is the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A study conducted in January 2023 by the Brazilian Geological Survey (SGB) found 3.93 million people living in 13,500 high-risk areas across the country. In 2018, 8.2 million Brazilians lived in areas subject to floods and landslides in 872 municipalities, according to a report issued that year by CEMADEN and IBGE, the national census and statistics bureau. Examples of such areas are the parts of Rio Grande do Sul state hit by severe flooding in early September, with dozens of deaths and widespread destruction, as well as the disaster seen at the start of the year in several areas of the northern part of the coast of São Paulo state, with more than 60 deaths and major economic and financial losses.

Collecting data 

“Our work has a very clear application to topics relating to the climate emergency and evidenced-based decision-making. Lack of data is a real problem in Brazil and several other countries, as well as the inequality that must be taken into account when formulating public policy. The project showed there are ways to change how the government handles the question of data, including people and territories,” Maria Alexandra Cunha, a professor at FGV and co-author of the article, told Agência FAPESP.

The research has resulted in a free smartphone app (available for Android) that can be used to collect data at strategic sites via citizen science to monitor rainfall, flooding and river levels. The data is transmitted in real time to a digital platform with interactive maps accessible by local communities.

The platform has been integrated into the website of the CEMADEN Education Program, which works with schools and communities and is being used as part of a nationwide disaster prevention campaign.

To make the lessons learned in the project available to other regions, a Learning Guide was created to help students and volunteers with the production of data and knowledge about disasters caused by excessive water flows and lack of urban drainage (read more at: agencia.fapesp.br/39725). 

“CEMADEN Education has created participatory and transformative methodologies to build a network of schools, young people, residents and local communities. Projects like Waterproofing Data are part of this process, helping us move on from the case study to gain scale. We expect the methodology to be used in many more areas,” said Victor Marchezini, a researcher at CEMADEN and also a co-author of the article. 

Steps

The researchers used innovations inspired by what they call dialogic pedagogy, an approach developed by Paulo Freire, and based on the creation of knowledge construction networks, including (1) a situational analysis of lived experience and topics that fuel debate; (2) generative data originating new understanding; (3) critical reflection to change perspectives for action; (4) threshold or limit situations involving unsustainable living conditions; and (5) feasible unseens offering new paths to transcend threshold situations.

They produced methodological interventions that made citizens and their experiences visible by means of data, motivating the community to engage with the process and share stories. In one case, an inhabitant of Jaboatão dos Guararapes (in Pernambuco state, Northeast Brazil) wrote a poem using the cordel form derived from popular culture and describing the data practices in which they participated.

The community generated data and information, which circulated and were used more widely, opening up new paths to solutions and transformations. “The first step in the search for solutions to problems is to make them visible, producing data, evidence and knowledge in each community. We hope to see the project continue as this approach is implemented in other regions and even abroad, in countries like Colombia, where we’ve already worked,” Albuquerque said.

About São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)

The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration. You can learn more about FAPESP at www.fapesp.br/en and visit FAPESP news agency at www.agencia.fapesp.br/en to keep updated with the latest scientific breakthroughs FAPESP helps achieve through its many programs, awards and research centers. You may also subscribe to FAPESP news agency at http://agencia.fapesp.br/subscribe.

World Scientists' Climate Report highlights perils as Earth enters "uncharted territory"


Reports and Proceedings

AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Wildfire Effects 

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UNITED STATES, 2008. HOMEOWNERS SORT THROUGH DEBRIS AFTER WILDFIRES DESTROYED THEIR HOME IN THE
STATE OF CALIFORNIA.

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CREDIT: CREDIT: FEMA/MICHAEL MANCINO, PUBLIC DOMAIN.




In a year marked by wildfire, catastrophic flooding, and deadly weather events, an international team of scientists has updated its influential 2019 World Scientists Warning of a Climate Emergency report, which has been cosigned by over 15,000 scientists representing 163 countries. According to the team, “life on planet Earth is under siege” and “we are now in uncharted territory.”

                Writing in the journal BioScience, William Ripple, a distinguished professor at Oregon State University College of Forestry, and former OSU postdoctoral researcher Christopher Wolf, alongside 10 coauthors, update the status of planetary vital signs and urge immediate action to curb the effects of climate change. Of the 35 vital signs tracked by the authors, 20 are now at record extremes, they say, an alarming development tragically reflected in human suffering. Of particular concern, say the authors, are fossil fuel subsidies that have doubled to over $1 trillion between 2021 and 2021, Canadian wildfires that have pumped over 1 gigaton of carbon into the atmosphere this year (Canada's 2021 total greenhouse gas emissions were 0.67 gigaton), and 38 days with recorded global temperatures exceeding preindustrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. There is even reason to believe, the authors suggest, that an average global surface temperature recorded in July may have been the highest seen on Earth in 100,000 years. The authors also raise concerns about climate-related risks to food security, noting that roughly 735 million people faced chronic hunger in 2022—an increase of approximately 122 million since 2019.

                A failure to act quickly, say Ripple, Wolf, and colleagues, could result in upwards of half of the world's population being "confined beyond the livable region" of Earth, subject to deadly heat, limited food availability, and elevated mortality. The authors urge policies to prevent further "ecological overshoot," the disastrous consequence of humanity's overuse of resources. Specifically, they recommend an economic transition to prioritize meeting the basic needs of all people rather than supporting extreme consumption by the wealthy. The authors also emphasize the need for gender justice, including greater support for women’s and girl’s education and rights, which can improve standards of living and reduce fertility rates. In addition, they call for the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies, a transition to plant-based diets, greater forest protection, and international treaties aimed at fossil fuel nonproliferation and the elimination of coal burning. The authors also note that these efforts must be undertaken with a clear focus on equity and social justice, because climate hazards "disproportionately affect the world’s most impoverished individuals, who, ironically, have had the least role in causing this issue."

                The authors close with an urgent call for global action and attention, stating that "this is our moment to make a profound difference for all life on Earth, and we must embrace it with unwavering courage and determination to create a legacy of change that will stand the test of time."

  

United States, 2017. “[National] Guardsman giving a woman a piggyback in waist deep floodwaters outside a house, Texas National Guard soldiers conduct rescue operations in flooded
areas around Houston, Texas.”

CREDIT

Credit: Zachary West / National Guard, CC BY 2.0.


United States, 2013. “Flooding and water damage in the Park and Tongue River Watersheds located in Cavalier, Pembina and Cavalier Counties in [North Dakota].

CREDIT

Credit: USDA, CC BY 2.0.


Co-authors of the paper include Bev Law of the OSU College of Forestry, Jillian Gregg of Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates, Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Thomas Newsome of the University of Sydney, Luiz Marques of Brazil’s State University of Campinas – Unicamp, Timothy Lenton of the University of Exeter, Chi Xu of Nanjing University, Saleemul Huq of Independent University Bangladesh, Leon Simons of the Club of Rome Netherlands, and Sir David Anthony King of the University of Cambridge.

 

The CO2 Foundation and Roger Worthington provided partial funding for this research

 

Ancient landscape discovered beneath East Antarctic Ice Sheet 


Peer-Reviewed Publication

DURHAM UNIVERSITY




The research team, led by Durham University, UK, used satellite data and radio-echo sounding techniques to map a 32,000 km2 area of land underneath the vast ice sheet.   

They discovered a landscape that appears to have been formed by rivers at least 14 million years ago and possibly even before the initial growth of the East Antarctic ice around 34 million years ago.  

This newly discovered landscape consists of ancient valleys and ridges, not dissimilar in size-and-scale to the glacially-modified landscape of North Wales, UK.  

Its existence implies a long-term temperature stability of the ice sheet in the area investigated by the researchers.   

The study has been published in the journal Nature Communications.   

Lead author Professor Stewart Jamieson, in the Department of Geography, Durham University, UK, said: “The land underneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is less well known than the surface of Mars.   

“And that’s a problem because that landscape controls the way that ice in Antarctica flows, and it controls the way it might respond to past, present and future climate change.   

“So, we’re investigating a small part of that landscape in more detail to see what it can tell us about the evolution of the landscape and the evolution of the ice sheet.   

“And what we find is an ancient land surface that has not been eroded by the ice sheet and instead it looks like it was created by rivers before the ice came along.   

“This tells us that there hasn’t been a lot of change in this particular area, which indicates that although this part of the ice sheet may have retreated during warmer times in the past, the conditions at this site likely did not change much, and that helps us understand how the ice sheet might respond to future and ongoing warming.”   

The study’s co-author Neil Ross, Professor of Polar Science and Environmental Geophysics at Newcastle University, UK, said: “It is remarkable that this landscape, ‘hidden in plain sight’ for many years, can tell us so much about the early, and long-term, history of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, as well as helping us to understand how it might evolve in response to future climate change.   

“This has been something of a slow burn project, but one that has now come to fruition in an exciting paper involving a great research team.”   

The discovery builds on previous work by this team who, in collaboration with other researchers, have mapped out hidden mountain ranges, canyon systems and lakes beneath the ice in Antarctica.   

Although the landscape beneath the ice sheet is not visible to the naked eye, satellite images captured over the region show small undulations of the ice sheet’s surface that provide clues about the sub-ice landscape.   

In a few places, the landscape’s existence has been confirmed by using radio-echo sounding from planes to see through the ice and map the shape of the land beneath the ice sheet.   

The research team proposes it is likely that there will be other, as yet undiscovered, ancient landscapes hidden beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.   

Professor Jamieson added: “We’ll continue exploring the landscape, doing our best to fill in gaps where surveys don’t exist, and using that information to understand how the ice sheet and its underlying landscape have changed over their long history.”   

The survey data collection that underpins this work was supported by the UK Research and Innovation’s (UKRI) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the US National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA.   

ENDS   

Media Information  

Professor Stewart Jamieson of Durham University, UK, is available for interview and can be contacted on: stewart.jamieson@durham.ac.uk  

Professor Neil Ross of Newcastle University, UK, is available for interview and can be contacted on:  neil.ross@newcastle.ac.uk  

Alternatively, please contact Durham University Communications Office for interview requests on: communications.team@durham.ac.uk.    

Images and Captions  

Associated images are available via the following link: https://bit.ly/405LbQg  

Lifting the lid on Antarctica: Graphic shows how the landscape of Antarctica would appear if the ice were lifted away. Credit: Stewart Jamieson, Durham University 

HighlandARadarSat: Satellite image of the ice surface from Radarsat with a ghost-like appearance of the mountain blocks beneath the ice. Credit: Stewart Jamieson, Durham University 

HighlandARadarSatMappedLandscape: Satellite image of the ice surface from Radarsat with the valleys and ridges of the buried ancient mountains mapped. Credit: Stewart Jamieson, Durham University 

RadarImage: A radar image displaying the peaks and valleys of the mountains which are buried under ice that is 2 km thick. Credit: Stewart Jamieson, Durham University  

Plane1-5: Images of the plane used to conduct a partial survey of the region during the ICECAP project. Credit: ICECAP

Source Material     

‘An ancient river landscape preserved beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet’ by Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Neil Ross, Guy J. G. Paxman, Fiona J. Clubb, Duncan A. Young, Shuai Yan, Jamin Greenbaum, Donald D. Blankenship, Martin J. Siegert  is published in the journal Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42152-2  

A copy of the research paper is available by contacting communications.team@durham.ac.uk

The full paper can be accessed via the following link when the embargo lifts: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42152-2  

About Durham University  

Durham University is a globally outstanding centre of teaching and research based in historic Durham City in the UK.  

We are a collegiate university committed to inspiring our people to do outstanding things at Durham and in the world.  

We conduct research that improves lives globally and we are ranked as a world top 100 university with an international reputation in research and education (QS World University Rankings 2024).   

We are a member of the Russell Group of leading research-intensive UK universities and we are consistently ranked as a top 10 university in national league tables (Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide, Guardian University Guide and The Complete University Guide).  

For more information about Durham University visit: www.durham.ac.uk/about/  

 

OPINION

India-Canada spat is no-win situation for the U.S.


Biden administration keen to avoid taking sides in row over dissident's killing

Derek Grossman
October 25, 2023 
U.S. President Joe Biden, center, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, at the G7 summit in Germany in 2022. 
Reuters

For the U.S., the ongoing diplomatic row between Canada and India is very uncomfortable because Washington has no interest in choosing sides.

Canada is a fellow democracy and member of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing network, a friendly and helpful neighbor and a NATO ally.

India is a burgeoning strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region that Washington hopes can substantially contribute to countering China.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House in June during his first official state visit to Washington. The two signed many strategic agreements then and optimism about new areas of cooperation has been at an all-time high. Washington has even been willing to look the other way at India's heavy purchases of Russian oil since the beginning of the Ukraine war.

Yet the India-Canada feud may force Washington's hand, depending on the nature of the evidence that Ottawa eventually brings to light about possible official Indian involvement in the killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver in July.

A direct link between Indian agents and the murder would likely at minimum put a damper on future cooperation between Washington and New Delhi. In a sign of what may be to come, U.S. Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti reportedly told staff to prepare for the possibility of reduced contact with Indian officials.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to cooperate with Canada's probe into the killing when they met in Washington last month, a few days after the top American diplomat said he was deeply "deep concerned" about the case. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said India would not get any "special exemption" in the matter.

But heavy-handed American criticism is likely to backfire. Many Indians are quick to point out that since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Washington has conducted extrajudicial killings on foreign soil by drone strike, depriving the U.S. of any moral high ground in their view.

At the same time, if Ottawa can persuasively demonstrate Indian complicity in Nijjar's murder, then U.S. inaction would not only anger Canada, but might also be corrosive to the Biden administration's values-based foreign policy.

Although India is a fellow democracy committed to liberal democratic principles, numerous credible research and rights organizations assess that it has increasingly become an illiberal democracy under Modi.

If Nijjar's killing is linked to India, then American policymakers will feel compelled to act, even if it potentially means sacrificing cooperation on China.

India can take solace, however, in the Saudi Arabia example: Biden's earlier heavy criticism of Riyadh over the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a U.S. resident, has been effectively forgotten as the administration has moved to strengthen ties and even discuss the possibility of a security treaty.
People protest outside India's consulate in Toronto last month against New Delhi's suspected involvement in the murder of Sikh activist Singh Nijjar in Vancouver.
© Reuters

Indeed, while the Biden administration will feel compelled to chastise India if Canada releases convincing evidence, Washington can be expected to broadly continue with business as usual. Such an approach makes sense as it takes both America's national interests and values into account. However, it may be tricky to pull off, given the unpredictable twists and turns the saga could take in the weeks and months to come.

For example, India may continue to escalate the issue, which could compel the U.S. to intervene on Canada's behalf. Already, the diplomatic fallout has been significant: New Delhi has suspended visa services for Canadians and forced Ottawa to withdraw dozens of diplomatic staff from India.

For his part, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said he does not wish to escalate matters further and that India remains an important partner in the Indo-Pacific region. He insists that he simply wants New Delhi to take the case seriously and look into it, but argues that last week's expulsions violated the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. India has denied this, but the Biden administration issued a terse statement supporting Canada in the matter.

Another possibility is that Sikh separatists active in other countries could try to take advantage of the spotlight from the Nijjar case to further promote their cause, which could lead to more diplomatic tensions.

For example, after India arrested a prominent Sikh separatist in Punjab state in March, his followers smashed windows and tore down a flag at the Indian High Commission in London; the Indian foreign ministry summoned the acting head of the U.K. mission in New Delhi to complain about inadequate security.

The outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas could be another wild card. Interestingly, both Canada and India are staunchly aligned with Israel against Hamas, which they both label a terrorist organization, in stark contrast to their conflicting views about Sikh separatists.

If the Israeli operation in Gaza is short, then Ottawa and New Delhi will continue to focus on their bilateral grievances. But if it turns into a longer, more expansive conflict, then the Nijjar case could fade into the background in the interests of maintaining a united front against terrorism.

The best-case scenario for the Biden administration is that Canada and India resolve their differences privately and expeditiously, without any need for U.S. mediation.

In an encouraging moment, Jaishankar last month said that while the Indian government stands by its denial of Canada's allegations, New Delhi will listen and investigate the claim. This week, he said, "If we see progress in the safety of our diplomats in Canada, we would like to resume issuance of visas there."

The Biden administration will start to breathe a big sigh of relief if the Modi government calms down and follows through, but the departure last week of Canada's expelled diplomats from India suggests this drama is far from over.

Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at the think tank RAND Corp. in Santa Monica, California, and an adjunct professor in the practice of political science and international relations at the University of Southern California. He formerly served as an intelligence adviser at the Pentagon.

Hurricane Otis makes landfall near Acapulco as catastrophic Category 5 storm

Hurricane Otis slammed into Mexico’s southern Pacific coast as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane early on Wednesday (Bernardino Hernandez/AP)

WED, 25 OCT, 2023 - 
JOSE ANTONIO RIVERA AND MARIA VERZA, ASSOCIATED PRESS

Hurricane Otis slammed into Mexico’s southern Pacific coast as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane early on Wednesday, bringing 165mph (270kmh) winds and heavy rain to Acapulco and surrounding towns, and stirring memories of a 1997 storm that killed dozens of people.

The hurricane was expected to weaken quickly in Guerrero state’s steep mountains, but the 5in (127mm) to 10in (254mm) of rain forecast, with as much as 15in (381mm) possible in some areas, raised the threat of landslides and floods.

Otis had strengthened rapidly, going from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 12 hours on Tuesday.

Acapulco’s mayor said the town was ‘on maximum alert’ as Hurricane Otis approached 
(Bernardino Hernandez/AP)

Residents of Guerrero’s coast scrambled to prepare, but the storm’s sudden intensity appeared to catch many off guard.

“We’re on maximum alert,” Acapulco Mayor Abelina Lopez said on Tuesday night as she urged residents to hunker down at home or move to the city’s shelters.

Otis could be more devastating than Hurricane Pauline that hit Acapulco in 1997, destroying swathes of the city and killing more than 200 people, Ms Lopez said. Hundreds of others were injured in flooding and mudslides.

Between the internationally known resorts of Acapulco and Zihuatanejo are two dozen small towns and villages perched between the mountains and the ocean.

Otis’s arrival came just days after Hurricane Norma struck the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula to the north.

Acapulco is a city of more than a million people at the foot of steep mountains. Luxury homes and slums alike cover the city’s hillsides with views of the glistening Pacific.

A satellite image showing Hurricane Otis approaching Mexico’s Pacific coast near Acapulco (NOAA/AP)

Guerrero is one of Mexico’s most impoverished and violent states.

On Monday, a local police chief and 12 officers were found massacred on a highway in El Papayo, which is in the Guerrero township of Coyuca de Benitez not far from Otis’s impact zone.

In the Atlantic, Hurricane Tammy continued moving north-eastwards over open water with winds of 85mph (140kph) after sweeping through the Lesser Antilles over the weekend.

Tammy was located about 570 miles (915km) south-southeast of Bermuda.

The storm is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by Thursday, according to the US National Hurricane Centre.


Dangerous Hurricane Otis Makes Landfall at Mexican City of Acapulco
October 25, 2023 

Members of the federal forces chat as they keep watch at a beach as Hurricane Otis barrels towards Acapulco, Mexico, Oct. 24, 2023.
WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO, SHOOT OTIS?

Forecasters say Hurricane Otis made landfall Wednesday morning on Mexico’s southern Pacific coast as a potentially catastrophic Category 5 storm.

The latest report from the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said Otis is about 10 kilometers south of the popular resort city of Acapulco with maximum sustained winds of 270 kilometers an hour, putting it on the highest rung of the center’s five-level scale that measures a storm’s maximum sustained wind speed and destructive potential.

The NHC has issued hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for much of Guerrero state, which is home to Acapulco, as well as neighboring Oaxaca state.

Forecasters predict the storm will dump as much as 20 to 40 centimeters of rain across Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca, with maximum amounts of 50 centimeters, triggering flash flooding and mudslides in high areas.

Otis will also trigger a potentially catastrophic storm surge that will produce life-threatening coastal flooding, along with large and destructive waves.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador urged residents in Guerrero state to “move to shelters, stay in safe places: away from rivers, streams, ravines and be alert.”

The NHC says Otis will weaken as it moves inland over higher terrain during the day, then dissipate over southern Mexico Wednesday night.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press.