El Nino appears to be on verge of rapid collapse

Andrew Wulfeck
Updated Thu, December 14, 2023

El Nino appears to be on verge of rapid collapse


The climate pattern known as El Niño, which quickly strengthened into a strong event, appears to be on the brink of a major decline, which would send the world into what is known as a neutral status.

When sea surface temperature anomalies in parts of the Pacific reached a mean temperature of 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) in June 2023, the first El Niño in nearly four years was considered to be underway.

According to data compiled by NOAA, the event became strong, with average anomalies reaching nearly 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) during the fall, with the latest reading now on the cusp at 1.9 degrees C (3.42 degrees F).

A status of at least 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) would have pushed the event’s standing into a Super-Niño status, the first since 2015-16. Based on cooling trends, odds are trending down of reaching that level, though NOAA forecasters still give a 54% chance of reaching Super-Niño levels.

El Nino computer model outlook.

Many climate models and sub-surface data show an El Niño that could be on its last legs, with the average dipping below the 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees F) threshold during the spring, baring another round of warm water propagation.

NOAA’s latest forecast now suggests El Niño may be over as soon as April — a month earlier than last month’s forecast. The probability of El Niño conditions remaining in April has dropped from 62% to 37%.

Some of the most vigorous climate models show certain regions dipping below the El Niño threshold as early as January. Still, like any weather event, forecasts that greatly deviate from the consensus are not considered to be outliers and not reliable.

WHAT ARE EL NINO AND LA NINA CLIMATE PATTERNS?

A tool that some forecasters use to determine the status of El Niño and La Niña events is the Southern Oscillation Index, or what is commonly referred to as the SOI.

The index measures pressure differences in the southwest Pacific, and when the gauge turns substantially positive, a La Niña event is likely happening or on the way. The reverse is also true, and when figures are markedly negative, an El Niño event is likely in progress.

Recent values provided by Australia’s Queensland Government show a streak of positive figures that have impacted the SOI count. In fact, at times, during the last 30 and 90 days, the figure has weakened below what is typically considered an El Niño event.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values.

El Niños are known to exist when figures are at -8 on the index scale, and La Niñas exist when the average figure is around a positive 8.

The latest SOI values were -7.86 for the last 90 days and -3.88 for the last 30 days, which at a glance would argue against there being an El Niño around, but values change daily and could easily reach El Niño status again.

LITTLE-KNOWN WEATHER PATTERN WHEN EL NINO AND LA NINA ARE NO LONGER IN CONTROL

Despite pressures in Darwin and Tahiti indicating that El Niño could be on its last leg, NOAA data depictions from satellites show no evidence of an emerging neutral or La Niña signal.

A large amount of real estate from South America to the south of Hawaii has anomalies that are 1-2 degrees C (1.8-3.6 degrees F) above average.

Without other observations, the depiction to an untrained eye would say El Niño is robust, but what is happening below the surface has forecasters abuzz.

An animation of water anomaly trends below the surface shows the warm water does not run deep, especially as you head further west from South America.

A large extent of cold water around the international date line has formed and is slowly creeping upwards towards the surface and sliding eastward.

According to long-term climate models, this cool pocket should expand and intensify, especially in the eastern Pacific, where cold water is virtually nonexistent right now.

Pacific Ocean water temperature anomalies.

Climate models such as the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) from NOAA show a stunning flip in the pattern from an El Niño to neutral and even a La Niña within months.

As one ventures out in time, the reliability and accuracy of models tend to diminish, but there is no getting around the fact it is now a question of when, not if, the world will exit the El Niño pattern in 2024.

"Model systematic errors arise because state-of-the-art climate models are still imperfect representations of reality. The complexity of the processes involved (is an additional challenge for models as small errors in one aspect can quickly amplify," climate scientist Eric Guilyardi previously stated in an ENSO blog.

So, if the majority of the members are correct and the world is to enter a neutral pattern, the question then becomes how long will the neutral phase will last.

Neutral phases have been known to last just a few months to several years.

Computer model animation for the coming months from tropicaltidbits.com.

EL NINO, CLIMATE CHANGE TO LIKELY MAKE NEXT 5 YEARS HOTTEST RECORDED ON EARTH, WMO SAYS

The future, the apparent downfall of El Niño, would complicate climate outlooks even further, as the length of the lag between when the weather changes and its associated neutral pattern is a not well-understood concept.

A fast-corresponding change would lead to fewer kinks in the jet stream, meaning more regional patterns dominate local weather.

A lag in the associated weather would keep El Niño-looking patterns around despite the world not officially being in an El Niño.

A lag is rather common as one pattern transitions into another. The world typically experiences a lag during large-scale events.

Take the summer solstice, for example; even though it occurs every June in the Northern Hemisphere, oceans and land usually don’t peak in temperature until July and August.

So, when the world would start feeling the impact of a neutral status would be anyone’s guess.

A neutral pattern typically means a busier spring severe weather season and hurricane season than typically experienced during an El Niño, but it all comes down to timing.

A pattern that flips during the late spring or summer would miss the heart of the severe weather season but catch the hurricane season in order to show its effects. A pattern change in September or beyond would miss out on impacting the 2024 hurricane season but would be in place for next winter.




Original article source: El Nino appears to be on verge of rapid collapse

The last residents of a coastal Mexican town destroyed by climate change

DANIEL SHAILER
Updated Thu, December 14
 

EL BOSQUE, Mexico (AP) — People moved to El Bosque in the 1980s to fish. Setting out into the Gulf of Mexico in threes and fours, fishermen returned with buckets of tarpon and long, streaked snook. There was more than enough to feed them, and build a community — three schools, a small church and a basketball court on the sand.

Then climate change set the sea against the town.

Flooding driven by some of the world’s fastest sea-level rise and by increasingly brutal winter storms has all but destroyed El Bosque, leaving piles of concrete and twisted metal rods where houses used to line the sand. Forced to flee the homes they built, locals are waiting for government aid and living in rentals they can scarcely afford.


The U.N. climate summit known as COP28 finally agreed this month on a multimillion-dollar loss-and-damage fund to help developing countries cope with global warming. It will come too late for the people for El Bosque, caught between Mexico's economically vital national petroleum company and the environmental peril that it fuels.

A rusting sign at the town’s entrance says over 700 people lived in El Bosque two years ago. Now there are barely a dozen. In between those numbers lie the relics of a lost community. At the old, concrete fishing cooperative, one of the few solid buildings left, enormous, vault-like refrigerators have become makeshift storage units for belongings — pictures, furniture, a DVD of Guinness World Records 3 — that families left behind.

Guadalupe Cobos is one of the few still living in El Bosque. A diabetic, she improvises a cooler for her insulin after each flood cuts power. Residents’ relationship with the sea is “like a toxic marriage,” Cobos said, sitting facing the waves on a recent afternoon.

“I love you when I’m happy, right? And when I’m angry I take away everything that I gave you,” she said.

Up to 8 million Mexicans will be displaced by climate change-driven flooding, drought, storms and landslides within the next three decades, according to the Mayors Migration Council, a coalition researching Mexican internal migration.

Along with rapidly rising water levels, winter storms called “nortes” have eaten more than one-third of a mile (500 meters) inland since 2005, according to Lilia Gama, an ecology professor and coastal vulnerability researcher at Tabasco Juarez State University.

“Before, if a norte came in, it lasted one or two days,” said Gama, sitting above the university’s crocodile enclosure. “The tide would come in, it would go up a little bit and it would go away.”

Now winter storms stay for several days at a time, trapping El Bosque’s few remaining locals in their houses if they don’t evacuate early enough. A warming climate spins up more frequent storms as it slams into ultra-cold polar air, and then storms last longer — fueled by hotter air, which can hold more moisture.

Local scientists say one more powerful storm could destroy El Bosque for good. Relocation, slowed by bureaucracy and a lack of funding, is still months away.

As the sun sets over the beach, Cobos, known as Doña Lupe to neighbors, pointed to a dozen small, orange stars on the line of the horizon — oil platforms burning off gas they have failed to capture.

“There is money here,” she said, “but not for us.”

As El Bosque was settled, state oil company Pemex went on an exploration spree in the Gulf — tripling crude oil production and making Mexico into a major international exporter.

As the international community clamors for countries to wind down fossil fuel use, the single leading cause of climate change, Mexico next year plans to open a new refinery in its biggest oil-producing state, just 50 miles (80 kilometers) west of El Bosque.

Gulf of Mexico sea levels are already rising three times faster than the global average, according to a study co-authored by researchers from the United Kingdom’s National Oceanography Center and universities in New Orleans, Florida and California this March.

The stark difference is partly caused by changing circulation patterns in the Atlantic as the ocean warms and expands.

The acceleration has also strengthened massive coastal storms like hurricanes Sandy and Katrina, researchers said, and doubled records of high-tide flooding from the Gulf up to Florida.

“In the 10 years before the acceleration, you might have had a period of rather slow sea-level rise. So people might have gotten a feeling of safety along the coastline, and then the acceleration kicks in. And things change very rapidly,” said lead scientist Sönke Dangendorf.

When Eglisa Arias Arias, a grandmother of two, moved to El Bosque alone, she was excited to have her own garden for the first time, and it was rarely troubled by the sea. Her house was flooded in a storm on Nov. 3 and she has rented an apartment a short drive inland.

“I miss everything. I miss all the noise of the sea. I mean the noise of this sea,” she said.

Swathes of the coast known as the Emerald Coast in the state of Veracruz are storm-battered, flooded and falling into the sea, and a quarter of neighboring Tabasco state will be inundated by 2050, according to one study.

Around the world, coastal communities facing similar slow-motion battles with the water have begun beating what is called "managed retreat.” Locals on the Gaspé peninsula of Quebec have been gradually fleeing the coast for over a decade, and just last year New Zealand’s government promised financial aid for some of the 70,000 homes it said will soon need to seek higher ground.

Very little, however, seems managed about the retreat from El Bosque. When the Xolo family fled their home on Nov. 21, they left in the middle of the night, all 10 children under a tarpaulin in pouring rain.

Now they practice math on an app. In the carcass of El Bosque’s primary school, attendance books are still on the floor with sodden pages and, in the preschool, alphabet cutouts cling to the wall.

First Áurea Sanchez, the Xolo family matriarch, took her family to a shelter at the local recreation center inland. Then, a few days later, a moving van arrived unannounced to remove the center’s only fridge and the shelter was closed.

“It can’t be,” Sanchez remembers thinking. “They can’t leave us without food without telling us right?”

Later that afternoon, an official arrived to announce the closure.

When The Associated Press visited El Bosque at the end of November, a moderate storm had flooded the one road to the community so that it was accessible only by foot, or motorbike. That same day the shelter was closed, apparently permanently, with papered-over windows and a government sign advertising “8 steps to protect your health in the event of a flood.”

The national housing department, responsible for operating the shelter, did not respond when asked why it was closed, or if it would reopen.

Meanwhile, new houses will not be ready before fall 2024, according to Raúl García, head of Tabasco’s urban development department, who added that, “I wish we could do it faster.”

Advocates, and García himself, said the process is too slow, and that Mexico needs new laws to cut through bureaucracy and quickly make money available for victims of climate change. Mexico does have a fund for climate adaptation, but for 2024 most of it will be spent on a train project already widely criticized for destroying parts of the Yucatan jungle.

Instead, President Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador, born just a few hours inland, has made oil development a key part of his nationalist platform. That might change if polls prove accurate and former Mexico City Mayor and accomplished scientist Claudia Sheinbaum is elected president next year. Despite being Lopéz Obrador’s protégé, she pledges to commit Mexico to sustainability, a promise which is more urgent than ever.

Since she fled her home on Nov 3. Arias spends some afternoons with her niece, helps her neighbors with the dishes or bakes upside-down pineapple cake with them. These are welcome distractions from the now-daily deliberation between buying food and paying rent.

More difficult still, however, are her memories of El Bosque and her home by the waves.

“I would go to sleep listening to the sea's noise and I would wake up with that, with that noise. I would always hear his noises and that’s why when I would talk to him I would tell him I know I’m going to miss you because with that noise you taught me how to love you.”

When the flood came for Arias’ house, she only asked the sea for enough time to collect her things, and it gave her that.

“And so, when I left there, I said goodbye to the sea. I gave him thanks for the time he was there for me.”


In El Bosque, a small fishing community in the Gulf of Mexico, a long, one-sided battle against the sea is nearly at an end. (Dec. 13) 

One storm away from total obliteration: Inside the Mexican town that’s being swallowed by the sea

Ruth Wright
Thu, December 14, 2023


“I would go to sleep listening to the sea’s noise. I would tell him [the sea] I know I’m going to miss you because with that noise you taught me how to love you.”

When the flood came for Eglisa Arias Arias’ house, she asked the sea for enough time to collect her things, and it gave her that.

“And so, when I left there, I said goodbye to the sea. I gave him thanks for the time he was there for me.”

Arias had to flee her home in the beachside town of El Bosque in early November. She was one of many who moved to the Gulf of Mexico in the 1980s in search of work, mostly in fishing.

Now less than a dozen residents are left as the ocean swallows up El Bosque due to brutal winter storms and some of the world's fastest rising sea levels.

By 2050 millions more Mexicans will be displaced by climate change, according to the Mayors Migration Council, a coalition researching internal migration.

An aerial view of the coastal community of El Bosque, in the state of Tabasco, Mexico, Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023 - AP Photo/Felix Marquez

Just one storm away from obliteration

El Bosque is a mass of twisted piles of concrete where houses used to be. Forced to flee the homes they built, locals have moved to rental properties, desperately awaiting government aid.

Guadalupe Cobos is one of the few still living in town. Residents’ relationship with the sea is “like a toxic marriage,” Cobos says, watching the waves.

“I love you when I’m happy, right? And when I’m angry I take away everything that I gave you,” she said.

Along with rapidly rising water levels, winter storms called "nortes” have moved the shoreline by more than 500m since 2005, according to Lilia Gama, coastal vulnerability researcher at Tabasco Juarez State University.

“Before, if a norte came in, it lasted one or two days,” said Gama. “The tide would come in, it would go up a little bit and it would go away.”

Now, fueled by warming air which can hold more moisture, winter storms stay for several days at a time.

Local scientists say one more powerful storm could destroy El Bosque for good. Relocation, slowed by bureaucracy and a lack of funding, is still months away.

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As the sun sets over the beach, Cobos, known as Doña Lupe to neighbours, points to a dozen small, orange stars on the horizon - oil platforms burning gas.

“There is money here,” she says, “but not for us.”

As El Bosque was settled, state oil company Pemex went on an exploration spree in the Gulf - tripling crude oil production and making Mexico into a major international exporter. The country has a new refinery planned in Tabasco, just 50 miles (80 kilometres) west of El Bosque.

Gulf of Mexico sea levels are already rising three times faster than the global average, according to a study co-authored by researchers from the UK, New Orleans, Florida and California this March.

Debris from collapsed home and felled trees litter the shore line of the coastal community of El Bosque, in the state of Tabasco, Mexico, Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023.

- AP Photo/Felix Marquez

Mexicans are being left behind

Coastal communities around the world facing similar slow-motion battles with the water, from Quebec to New Zealand, have begun beating a “managed retreat.”

Very little, however, seems managed about the retreat from El Bosque. When the Xolo family fled their home in late November they left in the middle of the night, all 10 children under a tarpaulin in pouring rain.

When the Associated Press visited El Bosque during a storm at the end of November, the community was accessible only on foot or motorbike.

Living in a ghost town: The Moldovans who refused to be climate migrants

Climate migrants: How even rich Bavaria cannot provide shelter from global warming

New houses will not be ready before fall 2024, says Raúl García, head of Tabasco’s urban development department, who himself said the process is too slow.

While advocates call for specific climate adaptation laws, President Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador, born just inland, has made oil development a key part of his platform.

That might change if former Mexico City Mayor and accomplished scientist Claudia Sheinbaum is elected president next year. Despite being Lopéz Obrador’s protégée, she pledges to commit Mexico to sustainability, a promise more urgent than ever.

APTOPIX Mexico Swallowed by the Sea
Debris from collapsed home and felled trees litter the shore line of the coastal community of El Bosque, in the state of Tabasco, Mexico, Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023. Flooding driven by a sea-level rise and increasingly brutal winter storms destroyed the Mexican community. 

(AP Photo/Felix Marquez)

James Patterson awards $500 bonuses to 600 employees at independent bookstores

Associated Press
Wed, December 13, 2023 

Author James Patterson poses for a portrait in New York

. . (Photo by Taylor Jewell/Invision/AP, File)

NEW YORK (AP) — Six hundred employees at independent bookstores — from Chapter One in Victoria, Minnesota, to The Cloak & Dagger in Princeton, New Jersey — will be receiving $500 holiday bonuses from author James Patterson.

Employees were able to nominate themselves, or be recommended by store owners, managers, peers, community members and others.

“I’ve said this before, but I can’t say it enough — booksellers save lives," Patterson said in a statement Wednesday. "What they do is crucial, especially right now. I’m happy to be able to acknowledge them and their hard work this holiday season.”

One of the world’s most popular and prolific writers, Patterson has given millions of dollars to booksellers, librarians and teachers. In 2015, the same year he began awarding employee bonuses, he was presented an honorary National Book Award for “Outstanding Service to the America Literary Community.”

Patterson has even co-authored a tribute book, “The Secret Lives of Booksellers and Librarians,” which Little, Brown and Company will release in April.

“We all continue to be awed by, and grateful for, Mr. Patterson’s continuing support of independent booksellers," Allison Hill, CEO of the American Booksellers Association, said in a statement. "It means so much to have him recognize the valuable role booksellers play in the industry and we appreciate his financial generosity as well as his generosity of spirit.”

China condemns Canada's support for Philippines on South China Sea incidents

Reuters
Wed, December 13, 2023 

Chinese militia vessels operate at Whitsun Reef in South China Sea

(Reuters) - China condemned Canada's support for the Philippines over what it said were violations of China's sovereignty in the South China Sea, according to a statement by a Chinese embassy spokesperson in Canada.

"The South China Sea is the common home of countries in the region and should not become a hunting ground for Canada, the United States and other countries to pursue their geopolitical interests," the statement said.

Over the past few months, China and the Philippines have had several confrontations centred around the Second Thomas Shoal, an atoll in the South China Sea.

"As a country outside the region, Canada has emboldened the Philippines' violation of China's sovereignty, violated the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter, and jeopardised regional peace and stability," the Canadian embassy spokesperson said.

Manila has accused Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels of repeatedly firing water cannon at its resupply boats and deliberately ramming a vessel near the disputed waters.

The United States has voiced opposition to the run-ins and sided with the Philippines.

Over the weekend, a confrontation in the disputed waters drew condemnation from Canada in a government statement denouncing "the actions taken by the People's Republic of China against Philippine civilian and government vessels in the South China Sea."

China, which claims nearly the entire South China Sea as its own, has repeatedly said Philippine vessels were encroaching on its national sovereignty.

(Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Writing by Bernard Orr; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Edmund Klamann)


Philippines summons Chinese ambassador over South China Sea 'harassment'

Reuters
Mon, December 11, 2023 

Chinese Coast Guard ship uses water cannon against a Filipino resupply vessel

MANILA (Reuters) -The Philippines' foreign ministry said on Tuesday it has summoned China's ambassador to Manila to protest "back-to-back harassments" in the South China Sea at the weekend, as longstanding geopolitical tensions continue in the strategic waterway.

Manila has asked China to direct its vessels to cease and desist from what it said were illegal actions and dangerous manoeuvres against Philippine vessels, and stop interfering in legitimate Philippine activities, the ministry said in a statement.

Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro verbally delivered the protest against the Chinese manoeuvres that led to a collision, and against use of water cannons against Philippine vessels sending supplies to troops stationed in an ageing warship at the Second Thomas Shoal.

"The actions of the Chinese vessels within the Philippine exclusive economic zone are illegal and violate the freedom of navigation," the ministry said.

It also protested China's use of water cannons against three fisheries bureau vessels on their way to send oil and groceries to fishermen near the Scarborough shoal.

The Chinese embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to request for comment.

The two neighbours traded accusations on Sunday, and the Philippines called China's actions a "serious escalation".

China's foreign ministry protested over what it said was a collision on Sunday, but the Philippines said Chinese coastguard and maritime militia repeatedly fired water cannons at its resupply boats, causing "serious engine damage" to one, and "deliberately" ramming another.

The United States, the Philippines' treaty ally, and the United Kingdom, both expressed support for the Philippines and condemned the actions of China, which claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion of annual ship-borne commerce.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei, have competing claims. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016 said China's claims had no legal basis.

(Reporting by Neil Jerome Morales and Karen Lema; Editing by Martin Petty, Kanupriya Kapoor and)

Amazon rift: Five things to know about the dispute between an Indigenous chief and Belgian filmmaker

DIANE JEANTET
Wed, December 13, 2023 


RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — The renowned chief from the Amazon rainforest and the Belgian filmmaker appeared to be close friends at this year's Cannes Film Festival. Far from the flashing cameras, however, their decades-long partnership was nearing its end.

With his feathered crown and wooden lip plate, Chief Raoni of the Kayapo tribe is instantly recognizable the world over. He has met with presidents, royals and celebrities to raise funds for Brazil’s Indigenous peoples and to protect their lands. Almost always in the background was a less familiar face, that of Jean-Pierre Dutilleux, whose documentary about Raoni was a 1979 Oscar nominee. In the years since, he has acted as Raoni's gatekeeper abroad and brokered meetings with leaders and luminaries. But many Kayapo and others who crossed Dutilleux's path harbored growing suspicions about him.

The Associated Press interviewed dozens of people over nearly a year — including both Raoni and Dutilleux — to provide an inside look at the falling out and what it signals about efforts to preserve the Amazon.


HOW DID THEY RAISE MONEY?

The two repeatedly traveled to Europe, meeting with leaders including French Presidents Jacques Chirac and Emmanuel Macron, Leonardo DiCaprio, Monaco’s Prince Albert II, the Grand Duke Henri of Luxembourg and even Pope Francis. At each of those encounters, they sought contributions to help Raoni's people and other Indigenous groups in the Amazon — and secured pledges for hundreds of thousands of dollars over the years. They also hosted galas, charity dinners and auctions for private donors.

Dutilleux launched the Rainforest Foundation with music legend Sting, who put down his guitar to travel the world with Raoni and Dutilleux to spotlight the plight of Indigenous people. Their efforts largely contributed to the Brazilian government’s recognition -– and, theoretically, protection -– of the Menkragnoti Indigenous Territory, an area of 5 million hectares (19,000 square miles). Several films and books about the Indigenous chief, including one about their tour with Sting, yielded royalties. Dutilleux also raised money in Raoni’s name through Association Forêt Vierge, one of the several non-profit groups created to receive donations during his tour with Sting.

WHAT ARE THE ACCUSATIONS?

The tribal leader, two other members of his non-profit group, the Raoni Institute, and Raoni’s future successor as leader of the tribe all said Dutilleux over the last two decades repeatedly promised them large sums of money to fund social projects but only delivered a fraction of it. They said he also refused to be transparent about money raised in Raoni’s name on their tours of Europe, or from his books and films about the Kayapo.

“My name is used to raise money,” Raoni told The Associated Press in an interview in Brasilia. “But Jean-Pierre doesn’t give me much.”

Others who have come to work with Dutilleux in the Amazon over the years have also expressed concerns about the filmmaker's relationship with Raoni. In interviews with the AP, many have complained about his lack of transparency when it came to raising funds for Indigenous peoples.

Some directly suffered from it, including Spanish photographer Alexis de Vilar, whose non-profit group was in charge of organizing a charity gala for the U.S. premiere of Dutilleux's “Raoni” documentary in 1979. The funds were supposed to go to Indigenous peoples in Brazil and the U.S. Dutilleux had been in charge of collecting money from ticket sales for the event, but never turned over any amount, de Vilar said. “There was no money, not even to build a school,” de Vilar said.

Sting accused Dutilleux in 1990 of keeping all royalties from the book about their tour, rather than giving them to the Rainforest Foundation as was promised on the book’s cover. As a result, the Rainforest Foundation removed him as a trustee.

HOW MUCH OF THE TOTAL RAISED WAS PROVIDED TO INDIGENOUS PEOPLE?

AP was not able to determine the amount of money raised over the last five decades.

Association Forêt Vierge president Robert Dardanne told the AP that the group gave the Raoni Institute all the money that it was owed. The organization provided records indicating it sent 14,200 euros ($15,300) after a 2011 fund-raising trip and a little over 80,000 euros ($86,000) after a 2019 campaign. But it did not supply records for at least four previous campaigns, saying that under French law it was only required to retain such records for a decade.

Raoni and others close to him say these amounts pale in comparison with the millions of dollars that Dutilleux has repeatedly promised them.

Dardanne said he believed a lack of communication between the chief and the Raoni Institute was at the root of the chief’s discontent. “There is sometimes a gap between the expectations of Indigenous communities and reality,” he said.

WHAT DOES DUTILLEUX SAY?

Dutilleux told the AP that he never had access to the money raised and denied Raoni's claims that he had failed to deliver.

“He can sometimes say things like that, it has to do with age. Maybe it’ll happen to me too, to say stupid things," Dutilleux, now 74, said in an interview in Paris. “I want nothing to do with money. It doesn’t interest me. I’m a filmmaker, I’m an artist. I’m not an accountant.”

He maintains that the gala in Mann’s Chinese Theatre did not generate any profit and said his relationship with Sting had broken down due to their “different visions,” without elaborating.

Dutilleux said criticism of his legacy in the Amazon involved "three or four people" who were trying to take him down. The AP spoke to more than two dozen people for this story.

WHY DID RAONI KEEP FUNDRAISING WITH DUTILLEUX FOR SO LONG?

Despite the Kayapo’s suspicions that stretch back nearly 20 years, Raoni’s inner circle believed he could not abandon Dutilleux. It was a decision, they said, rooted in the centuries-old power imbalance that exists when an Indigenous tribe partners with an influential white man. In short, Raoni needed help from someone — anyone — for preservation of the Amazon, and Dutilleux was willing and able to open doors to international donors.

“He sees far beyond petty quarrels between egos and clans,” said French environmentalist Philippe Barre, who has worked with Raoni in the past. “What matters to him is that the important subjects emerge … even if some feather their own nests in the process.”

How the deep friendship between an Amazon chief and Belgian filmmaker devolved into accusations

DIANE JEANTET
Wed, December 13, 2023 



RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — It was considered to be among the world’s most productive partnerships between an Indigenous chief and a Westerner.

For five decades, the Amazonian tribal leader and Belgian film director enlisted presidents and royals, even Pope Francis, to improve the lives of Brazil’s Indigenous peoples and protect their lands. The pair befriended celebrities and movie stars. Sting, the musical legend, was one of their greatest champions.

Just a few months ago, their bond seemed as strong as ever. Chief Raoni Metuktire, sporting his iconic lip plate and an emerald feathered crown, and tuxedo-clad filmmaker Jean-Pierre Dutilleux were at the Cannes Film Festival to promote the Belgian’s latest documentary: “Raoni: An Unusual Friendship.” Standing on the red carpet, amid a flurry of camera flashes, the two clasped hands, as if old friends.


Behind the scenes, however, the relationship was nearing its end. Not long after returning to Brazil in May, the chief of the Kayapo severed ties with his Belgian acolyte.

Raoni and those closest to him told The Associated Press they had long distrusted Dutilleux, suspecting the filmmaker of failing to deliver funds raised for the Kayapo. They also accused Dutilleux of exploiting the chief’s image and reputation to enhance his influence and film career.

“My name is used to raise money,” Raoni said in an interview with AP in Brasilia. “But Jean-Pierre doesn’t give me much.”

The tribal leader, two other members of his non-profit group, the Raoni Institute, and Raoni’s successor all said Dutilleux repeatedly pledged to give them large sums of money to fund social projects but only delivered a fraction of it. They said he also refused to be transparent about money raised in Raoni’s name on their tours of Europe, or from his books and films about the Kayapo.

Dutilleux denied any wrongdoing, repeating that he never had access to the money.

“He can sometimes say things like that, it has to do with age. Maybe it’ll happen to me too, to say stupid things," Dutilleux, now 74, told the AP in an interview in Paris, adding that money “doesn’t interest me. I’m a filmmaker, I’m an artist. I’m not an accountant.”

Despite the Kayapo’s long-running suspicions, which stretch back nearly 20 years, Raoni’s inner circle believed he could not abandon Dutilleux. It was a decision, they said, rooted in the centuries-old power imbalance that exists when an Indigenous tribe partners with an influential “kuben,” the Kayapo word for white man.

THE CHIEF

Raoni was born sometime in the 1930s — nobody knows the precise year — in the Metuktire branch of the Kayapo tribe. By then, the first Amazon rubber boom had ended after nearly three decades of often brutal exploitation of Indigenous populations.

His family and tribe members were semi-nomadic and spent their days hunting and fishing in the basin of the Amazon’s Xingu River, an area the size of France and home to dozens of Indigenous groups.

Their first contact with kubens was in 1954. By then, Raoni was a charismatic warrior and shaman, respected for his political acumen and bravery in combat against rival tribes and those seeking to exploit their resources.

He learned to speak Portuguese — but not to read or write — and became his tribe’s main interlocutor with the outside world, as well as a leading voice in the protection of Indigenous rights in Brazil.

By the 1970s, Indigenous peoples were under increasing pressure from Brazil’s military dictatorship, which in an effort to develop the Amazon constructed highways, sponsored colonization programs and offered generous subsidies to farmers. Raoni and others were doing everything they could to halt the destruction of their ancestral lands.

That’s also about when Raoni saved Dutilleux’s life.

THE FILMMAKER

Born into a bourgeois family in a provincial town in Belgium, Dutilleux dreamed of distant landscapes, and at 22 took off for Brazil, where he would direct an ethnographic film about Indigenous tribes in the Amazon rainforest.

There, a group of Kayapo tribesmen mistook him for a highway construction worker who typically brought death and disease to the region and threatened to kill him. Raoni stepped in to prevent any violence, and the two men became friends.

A few years later, Dutilleux returned to the Xingu to shoot a documentary focusing on the shaman. Dutilleux convinced Marlon Brando to narrate the American version, which was a 1979 Oscar nominee. The film’s success turned Raoni into one of the leading figures among Indigenous peoples, and Dutilleux became his gatekeeper.

Almost right away, some advocates and Kayapo leaders were concerned that Dutilleux was more interested in profiting off Raoni than in helping the Indigenous cause.

One of those who was suspicious of Dutilleux is Alexis de Vilar, a Spanish photographer who founded the Tribal Life Fund, a non-profit group dedicated to the protection of Indigenous peoples.

The Tribal Life Fund sponsored the documentary’s U.S. premiere with a gala at Mann’s Chinese Theatre, a landmark Hollywood venue. The black-tie ceremony was hosted by Jon Voight and Will Sampson, who starred in “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest,” and it drew an A-list crowd.

“All Hollywood was there,” de Vilar recalled. With some guests spending several thousand dollars for a ticket, de Vilar expected his non-profit to collect at least $50,000, which the Tribal Life Fund had said would finance various social projects.

But the Tribal Life Fund didn't receive any of that money. Dutilleux had been in charge of collecting payments for tickets but never turned over any it, de Vilar said. “There was no money, not even to build a school,” de Vilar said.

Dutilleux maintains that the gala did not generate any profit.

THE MUSICIAN

A decade later, Dutilleux introduced the Indigenous chief to Sting, the former lead singer of The Police — an encounter that would turn Raoni into an even greater celebrity. After playing a concert in Rio de Janeiro, Sting traveled to the Amazon and became a passionate ally of Raoni and the Kayapo. He and Dutilleux launched Rainforest Foundation, a non-profit group that to this day promotes forest protection worldwide.

In 1989, Sting put down his guitar to travel the world with Raoni and Dutilleux to spotlight the plight of Indigenous people. Their efforts largely contributed to the Brazilian government’s recognition -– and, theoretically, protection -– of the Menkragnoti Indigenous Territory, an area of 5 million hectares (19,000 square miles).

Despite the victory, the trio had already fallen out.

Dutilleux was pushed out of Rainforest Foundation after Sting accused the filmmaker of trying to profit off the charity by keeping royalties from a book about their tour. According to the book’s cover, those royalties were supposed to go toward Indigenous peoples.

In his interview with the AP, Dutilleux said his relationship with Sting had broken down due to their “different visions."

Dutilleux continued to raise money in Raoni’s name through Association Forêt Vierge, one of the several non-profit groups created to receive donations during his world tour with Sting. Dutilleux served as its president from 1989 to 1999 and as “honorary president” since then.

In 1991, Dutilleux organized a campaign in Europe to raise $5 million to create a vast Brazilian national park and protect an area three times the size of Belgium.

The project, he told a Belgian newspaper, had been conceived by a director at Brazil’s Indigenous affairs agency.

But the Brazilian official, Sydney Possuelo, denied any involvement in the effort. He called Dutilleux’s plans for the park “stupid” and described the calculations as “absurd.”

Possuelo, 83, a globally respected expert on isolated tribes, told the AP he believed Dutilleux was “harmful to Indigenous peoples.”

“He is a freeloader,” he added. “To him, the Indigenous question is a business. Every time he shows up, it’s to somehow take advantage of people like Raoni.”

Raoni skipped the tour, and it’s unclear how much money Dutilleux raised. Dutilleux told the AP the campaign was called off and blamed Possuelo’s criticism for its demise.

Despite the setback, Dutilleux returned to the Xingu — “my tribal heart,” as he has described it. On his visits to Raoni and other Indigenous tribes, Dutilleux tried to engage them in new fund-raising proposals, whether a book, movie or tour.

“He’s always using him,” said Raoni’s nephew, chief Megaron Txucarramãe.

Megaron, who is likely to be Raoni’s successor, says he has repeatedly advised his uncle against teaming up with Dutilleux. “This lack of clarity, of transparency with money happens every time he travels with him,” Megaron said.

Raoni has confronted Dutilleux about the absence of payments on many occasions. In 2002, following a tour during which then-French President Jacques Chirac committed to help launch the Raoni Institute, the chief filed a petition with Brazilian prosecutors, asking that measures be taken so that the money would not be funneled through Dutilleux. The complaint went nowhere, lost in the morass of the Amazon’s overloaded judicial system.

THE DAM

The two men made peace after Dutilleux offered to write Raoni’s biography, which was published in 2010. That year and in 2011, they went on tour to promote the book and raise money for the Kayapo.

At the time, construction of the mammoth Belo Monte hydroelectric dam was underway, raising alarms in Indigenous communities over concerns it would dry up vast stretches of the Xingu River.

For decades, Raoni and other tribal leaders had aggressively fought construction of the dam, saying it would displace tens of thousands of people.

In meetings with European leaders during the 2011 campaign, however, Raoni and Dutilleux did not really discuss Belo Monte, said Christian Poirier, who was leading the non-profit Amazon Watch’s campaign to halt the construction.

Poirier, who had heard of Dutilleux’s dubious track record in the Amazon, investigated and came to believe that the chief had been provided with poor translations and kept away from anti-dam advocates, and that Dutilleux intentionally downplayed Raoni’s objections.

Even though Raoni was desperate to stop the project, Dutilleux told local reporters that it was not the focus of their tour.

In an email obtained by AP, Dutilleux wrote to members of his non-profit group that it was too risky for them to fight the dam. Criticism might harm their ability to raise funds and jeopardize a potential meeting with a powerful French energy company, he wrote.

When Raoni returned to Brazil and learned that advocates were upset he did not speak out about the dam project, he and other Kayapo leaders were furious.

They issued a statement saying Dutilleux was no longer authorized to receive donations on their behalf. They pointed out that they had received little of the money Dutilleux had promised them if Raoni accompanied him to meetings with influential people in France in 2011.

Association Forêt Vierge president Robert Dardanne told the AP that the group gave the Raoni Institute all the money it was owed. The organization provided records indicating it sent 14,200 euros ($15,300) after the 2011 fund-raising trip and a little over 80,000 euros ($86,000) after the 2019 campaign.

But it did not supply records for at least four previous campaigns, stipulating that under French law it was only required to retain such records for a decade.

Raoni and others close to him say these amounts pale in comparison of the millions that Dutilleux has repeatedly promised them.

Raoni publicly accused Dutilleux in 2016 of having tricked him into signing a document that had been poorly translated, to hamper fundraising efforts led by a rival non-profit group. The chief also accused Dutilleux of using his likeness for commercial purposes.

Dutilleux was not fazed by the allegations. In 2019, he approached Raoni and offered to broker a meeting between the chief and French President Emmanuel Macron, as well as other powerful European figures.

During the meetings, Macron agreed to give a million euros to the Raoni Institute and another tribe from the Xingu.

The Raoni Institute and others involved in talks with Macron’s representatives told the AP that government officials desperately sought alternatives to bypass Dutilleux’s group. The money was eventually sent to the Raoni Institute through the French Development Agency and the non-profit Conservation International.

THE RUPTURE

Last year, Dutilleux visited Raoni and sold him on what would be their final tour to help promote his latest documentary, promising the chief they would raise significant money for his tribe.

Raoni reluctantly accepted the pitch. The situation had become more dire in the Amazon. Illegal loggers and miners thrived under far-right President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, with deforestation rising dramatically. Even with a newly elected president who has vowed to end all illegal deforestation, an estimated 585 acres (236 hectares) of Brazil’s Amazon are being hacked away each day.

Raoni and Kayapo leaders were skeptical of Dutilleux’s promises. But those who know the chief said they were not surprised that he decided to join him in Europe.

“He sees far beyond petty quarrels between egos and clans,” said French environmentalist Philippe Barre, who has worked with Raoni in the past. “What matters to him is that the important subjects emerge … even if some feather their own nests in the process.”

Kayapo people in Raoni’s inner circle told the AP the chief is finally done with Dutilleux. As evidence, they noted he skipped the October premiere in Rio of Dutilleux’s film "Raoni: An Unusual Friendship."

In another interview with the AP that same month, Raoni spoke at length about his legacy and the people who helped his cause over the years. He could not bring himself to say the filmmaker’s name.

___

AP journalists John Leicester and Sylvie Corbet in Paris contributed to this story.












 Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, right, stands next to Indigenous leader Raoni Metuktire after his swearing-in ceremony at Planalto palace in Brasilia, Brazil, Jan. 1, 2023. For five decades, the Amazonian tribal Chief Raoni Metuktire and Belgium filmmaker Jean-Pierre Dutilleux enlisted presidents and royals to improve the lives of Brazil’s Indigenous peoples and protect their lands. 

(AP Photo/Eraldo Peres, File)

WW3.0

Could Venezuela's aims to seize a chunk of its neighbor lead to war?

Patrick J. McDonnell, MERY MOGOLLÓN
Thu, December 14, 2023 

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro speaks to supporters after a referendum this month on Venezuela's claim to the Essequibo region of Guyana. 

(Matias Delacroix / Associated Press

Is armed conflict on the horizon in the northern hinterlands of South America?

The prospect of a military confrontation has emerged in recent weeks as Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has threatened to annex a chunk of resource-rich land in neighboring Guyana. The vast territory has been a source of a contention for more than a century.

Maduro's claims on the region — which Venezuelans call Guayana Esequiba and Guyanese call Essequibo — come as he faces unpopularity at home and growing international pressure to hold clean elections next year.

This month, Maduro put the territorial demands on Guyana to a vote in a domestic referendum — a bid to harness nationalist sentiment in a nation where generations of schoolchildren have been taught that the contested terrain is an essential part of Venezuela.

The conflict has alarmed the United Nations, the United States, Brazil and other nations. And now Maduro and Guyana’s president, Mohamed Irfaan Ali, are scheduled to meet Thursday in the Caribbean island-nation of St. Vincent and the Grenadines. All sides profess to favor a peaceful resolution.

Here are the details:

What's the backdrop behind the dispute?

Venezuela is home to some of the world’s largest oil reserves. But its once-robust economy cratered and millions of impoverished Venezuelans have emigrated, especially since the 2017 mass protests against the rule of the socialist Maduro, a protege of ex-President Hugo Chávez and a fervent adversary of the United States.

Maduro blames his country’s woes on U.S. sanctions that have helped cripple Venezuela’s petroleum sector. Washington calls Maduro an authoritarian dictator whose mismanagement has wrecked Venezuela’s economy and battered the country’s oil-and-gas extraction infrastructure — and caused misery for many of the country's 30.5 million residents.

In Caracas, a boy drives a motorbike in front of a mural of the Venezuelan map with the Essequibo region of Guyana included. 

(Matias Delacroix / Associated Press)

Guyana, a staunch U.S. ally, is a former Dutch and British colony that is home to a small but extremely diverse population of 800,000 — including descendants of African slaves and indentured workers from the Asian subcontinent, Indigenous peoples and settlers from Europe and elsewhere. It is the sole nation on the continent where English is the official language.

Read more: Venezuelans approve referendum to claim sovereignty over much of neighboring Guyana, officials say

Guyana is perhaps best-known in the United States as the site of the 1978 murder-suicide of more than 900 people linked to the California-based Peoples Temple cult and its wayward leader, Jim Jones.

Guyana's economy long featured relatively small-scale farming, fishing, timber-harvesting and mining. But the once-quiescent economy has been super-charged since discoveries in 2015 of huge offshore oil deposits.

What is Essequibo?

The sprawling swath of jungle, savanna and coast known as Essequibo — for the Essequibo River that forms its eastern boundary — accounts for two-thirds of Guyana's land. At 61,000 square miles, it's an area slightly smaller than Florida.

The border dispute with Venezuela dates to the early 1800s and British Guiana, as pre-independence Guyana was known. An 1899 international arbitration decision affirmed that Essequibo was part of British Guiana, but Venezuela has long said the process was rigged and that its dominion over Essequibo stretches back centuries to Spanish colonial days. Guyana gained independence in 1966.

Read more: Guyana's president says his country is preparing to defend itself against Venezuela

The Essequibo area, rich in timber and minerals, is now helping to transform Guyana through the recent oil boom.

In 2018, with an offshore drilling frenzy well underway, Guyana moved to secure an international imprimatur for control of Essequibo, taking its case to the International Court of Justice (sometimes called the World Court), the United Nations' highest judicial panel. Last April, the court rejected procedural objections from Caracas, paving the way for the justices to hear arguments from both sides.

What steps has Venezuela taken?

The World Court ruling stung Venezuelan officials, who feared the panel would ultimately declare Essequibo part of Guyana — even though a final decision is probably years off.

Maduro was left with "a ball of fire in his hands," said Jesús Seguías, an independent political analyst in Caracas.

Appearing on the verge of losing Essequibo would be a humiliation for a president already on shaky electoral ground, said Seguías.

But Maduro, a survivor of the Trump administration "maximum pressure" campaign to drive him from office, struck back. He called a nationwide referendum on a plan to incorporate Essequibo into Venezuela and deny World Court jurisdiction.

The International Court of Justice on Dec. 1 ordered Venezuela not to do anything to alter the status quo on Guyana’s control over Essequibo. But it denied Guyana's bid to ban the referendum.

The Essequibo River flows in Guyana. Venezuela wants to annex Guyana's oil- and mineral-rich Essequibo region. (Juan Pablo Arraez / Associated Press)

Many analysts saw Maduro's moves as a ploy ahead of next year's elections.

"This is really about Venezuelan domestic politics," said Geoff Ramsey, a senior analyst with the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank. "Maduro is trying to make up for falling popularity by stoking nationalism."

The Venezuelan government said more than 95% of voters approved the referendum. But images of sparsely attended polling stations led many to question the official account that 10 million people cast ballots.

Read more: Efforts to squelch democracy in Venezuela are increasing, U.N. rights experts say

Among those voting was Carlos Herrera, 60, a Caracas plumber who agreed that Essequibo belonged to Venezuela — but said the matter should be resolved peacefully. "Maduro will do whatever he can to avoid confronting the country's real problems," Herrera said. "Poverty is our main problem. One doesn't win wars with hunger."

Following the vote, Maduro unveiled an expansive blueprint for a new Venezuelan state of Essequibo, ordered Venezuela’s state energy and mineral concerns to begin preparations to work there, and launched the process to grant Venezuelan citizenship to the region's 125,000, mostly English-speaking residents. He presented a multicolored map incorporating the disputed territory inside Venezuela's boundaries.

Venezuela dispatched a military contingent to the Atlantic coast, close to the disputed area, and named a major-general as provisional authority in the area.

Although Maduro gave companies working in Essequibo three months to leave, Exxon Mobil declared Tuesday on its Guyana Facebook page: "We are not going anywhere."

Read more: Guyana agrees to talks with Venezuela over territorial dispute under pressure from Brazil, others

How has Guyana responded?

Guyana’s leadership has denounced what it calls an illegal land grab threatening regional stability. President Ali labeled Venezuela an "outlaw nation" and stressed that his country would seek outside aid to thwart any more provocations from Caracas.

"Should Venezuela proceed to act in this reckless and adventurous manner, the region will have to respond," Ali told the Associated Press.
How have other countries reacted?

U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken reaffirmed Washington’s position that Guyana has full sovereignty over Essequibo. The U.S. military's Southern Command said it would conduct flight operations in collaboration with Guyana’s military — a move denounced as a “provocation” by Caracas.

Brazil, which shares northern borders with Venezuela and Guyana, said it was bolstering its military presence along its northern frontiers.

Read more: Venezuelan immigrants are ostracized in Colombia amid xenophobia and shifting politics

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has tried to broker a solution, declared: "What we don't want here in South America is war.”

Some observers suspect Maduro could be seeking a pretext to declare a national emergency and call off next year's election.

Is military action by Venezuela a realistic possibility?

Most observers say Venezuela is unlikely to launch a military strike. Even though its 100,000-plus troops far outnumber Guyana's meager defense array, the logistical hurdles are considerable: A full-scale ground invasion is not practical, experts say, since much of the Essequibo frontier with Venezuela is near-impenetrable rain forest and swamps. That leaves the faint possibility of an air or marine assault.

A Venezuelan attack could trigger an armed response from allies of Guyana. It would also probably further isolate Venezuela when Caracas is agreeing to electoral reforms and cooperating with Washington on immigration strategy in a near-desperate effort to convince the White House to relax sanctions. The oil boom next door in Guyana has dramatized how much Venezuela needs outside expertise and investment to revitalize its own oil industry.

"Neither Venezuela or Guyana want to see this expand into a full-blown conflict," Ramsey said. "This is much more about saber-rattling than a real threat."

What's next?

There is little expectation that Thursday's meeting between Maduro and Ali will yield anything close to a resolution amid so much bad blood and tortured history.

Even after the bilateral session was announced, Ali stated again that his country’s land boundaries were not up for discussion. And Caracas reiterated its “unquestionable rights of sovereignty” over Essequibo.

"It's very unlikely that we see either Venezuela or Guyana reach a substantial agreement," Ramsey said. "But what we are likely to see is a de-escalation in rhetoric."

McDonnell reported from Mexico City and special correspondent Mogollón from Caracas.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.



Can Caribbean meeting cool border dispute between leaders of Venezuela and Guyana?

Jacqueline Charles
Thu, December 14, 2023 


The leaders of Venezuela and Guyana are scheduled to meet face to face Thursday in the eastern Caribbean, but Guyanese President Irfaan Ali is making it clear that “the high-level” dialogue with Nicolás Maduro will not be a negotiation over the fate of an oil-rich territory that his country has controlled for more than a century.

Ali says his intention in attending the meeting is to deescalate the conflict, as called for by his fellow Caribbean Community leaders, between his nation and Venezuela.

The crisis erupted between the two contentious neighbor earlier this month when Venezuela reactivated its claim over the disputed Essequibo region in Guayana and announced moves to annex it. Roughly the size of Florida, the 61,776 square mile region represents a major chunk of Guyana and was the subject of an 1899 decision by international arbitrators, who placed its control under what was then British Guiana.

The meeting on Thursday is being held in St. Vincent, the main island of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, under the auspices of the 15-member Caribbean Community regional bloc known as CARICOM and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, CELAC. St. Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves is a member of CARICOM and currently serves as president of CELAC. He is also one of the Caribbean’s most vocal supporters of lifting U.S. sanctions against Venezuela. Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was also expected to participate, but reportedly will now be represented instead by his foreign relations adviser, Celso Amorin.

Also attending will be Courtenay Rattray, the chief of staff for United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, and Miroslav Jenča, the assistant secretary-general for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas, Guterres spokesman Stéphane Dujarric said. Dujarric said the invitation was extended by Gonsalves for the U.N. to attend as observers.

“The secretary-general welcomes the announcement of the meeting of the presidents of Guyana and Venezuela,” Dujarric said, adding that Guterres commends the efforts by da Silva and Gonsalves to bring the two sides together, and the support expressed by Mexico and the international community.

“The Secretary-General trusts this meeting will result in an immediate de-escalation of the tensions and calls on the parties to settle their differences through peaceful means, in accordance with the U.N. charter and international law.... The controversy is before the International Court of Justice and the secretary-general does not take a position in relation to ongoing judicial proceedings.”

The region has been on edge ever since Maduro reactivated his claims on the Essequibo.

Maduro claims that in a Dec. 3 referendum, 95% of Venezuelan voters rejected the United Nations International Court of Justice’s jurisdiction over the border dispute, and gave him approval to create a new state that he is now calling Guayana Esequiba.

Some independent observers have disputed Maduro’s election-turnout claims, while security analysts say that the Venezuelan leader’s increased rhetoric and contentious claims on the region are an attempt to put another item on the table in negotiations with the United States. Washington, which has long accused Maduro of undermining democracy in Venezuela, as of late has been pressuring him to release American hostages “wrongly detained” by his government and lift bans that keep opponents who want to run for president from serving in office. Maduro has so far failed to comply and some experts believe he is using Guyana as an excuse to impose martial law in Venezuela ahead of next year’s anticipated presidential elections that if free and fair could see him ousted from office.

“The land boundary is not a matter for bilateral discussion and the settlement of the matter is properly in the International Court of Justice where it must remain until the court gives its final ruling on the merits of the case, which Guyana has always said and I repeat, will be fully respected by Guyana,” Ali wrote in a letter to Gonsalves ahead of the Thursday meeting.

Ali says he was responding to statements made by Maduro that the purpose of the dialogue between the two was “in order to directly address the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana.” The comments were made in a Dec. 11 letter from Maduro to Gonsalves, which the former shared on X, formerly Twitter.

“I welcome direct, face-to-face talks,” Maduro posted. “It has always been my proposal, for I believe in dialogue, candid conversation, understanding and peaceful coexistence between peoples and nations. I will attend the meeting with the mandate given to me by the people. Venezuela shall overcome.”

It’s unclear what, if anything, will emerge from the talks.

The brewing crisis has become a major headache for both South American and Caribbean Community leaders, who have have had conflicting views of Maduro. As a group, leaders last week reiterated their support for Guyana and urged Venezuela “to respect” the international court’s Dec. 1 ruling for the borders to remain as they are until a final resolution is determined by the court.

CARICOM also called for “a de-escalation of the conflict and for appropriate dialogue between the leaders of Venezuela and Guyana to ensure peaceful coexistence, the application and respect for international law and the avoidance of the use or threats of force.”

Bahamas Prime Minister Philip Davis went further in a separate statement.

“I am disheartened that after all that CARICOM has done to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela during a most trying economic and political period in its history that Venezuela should now seek to annex territory in a CARICOM state,” Davis said.

Ahead of hosting the talks, Gonsalves, who often refers to Maduro as “comrade” and “brother,” said he wanted to avoid threats of force and reminded both leaders that they are on record as being committed to having the Caribbean be a zone of peace.

Miami Herald data reporter Ana Claudia Chacin contributed to this story.

Guyana and Venezuela leaders to meet face-to-face as region pushes to defuse territorial dispute

Associated Press
Wed, December 13, 2023 



Venezuela's new map that includes the Essequibo territory as its own is displayed at the Foreign Ministry in Caracas, Venezuela, Monday, Dec. 11, 2023. Leaders of Guyana and Venezuela are preparing to meet this week to address an escalating dispute over the Essequibo region that is rich in oil and minerals. 

(AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)

GEORGETOWN, Guyana (AP) — The leaders of Guyana and Venezuela headed for a tense meeting Thursday as regional nations sought to defuse a long-standing territorial dispute that has escalated with Venezuelans voting in a referendum to claim two-thirds of their smaller neighbor.

Pushed by regional partners, Guyanan President Irfaan Ali and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro agreed to meet at the Argyle International airport on the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent. The prime ministers of Barbados, Dominica and Trinidad and Tobago said they also would attend.

The meeting is aimed at easing the tensions that have flared over Essequibo, a vast border region rich in oil and minerals that represents much of Guyana's territory but that Venezuela claims as its own.

Venezuela’s president followed the referendum by ordering his state-owned companies to explore and exploit the oil, gas and mines in Essequibo. And both sides have put their militaries on alert.

It was unclear if the session would lead to any agreements or even ease the border controversy.

Guyana’s president has repeatedly said the dispute needs to be resolved solely by the International Court of Justice in the Netherlands.

“We are firm on this matter and it will not be open for discussion,” Ali wrote Tuesday on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Venezuela insists the Essequibo region was part of its territory during the Spanish colonial period, and argues the 1966 Geneva Agreement between their country, Britain and Guyana, the former colony of British Guiana, nullified the border drawn in 1899 by international arbitrators.

In a letter sent Tuesday to Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Guyana’s president said the Geneva Agreement states that the International Court of Justice should settle any border controversy.

Ali also said he was concerned about what he described as “inaccurate assertions” made by Maduro’s own letter to Gonsalves.

He rebutted Maduro’s description of oil concessions granted by Guyana as being “in a maritime area yet to be delimited." Ali said all oil blocks “are located well within Guyanese waters under international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.”

Ali also rejected what he said Maduro described as “meddling of the United States Southern Command, which has begun operations in the disputed territory.”

The U.S. Southern Command conducted flight operations within Guyana in recent days.

“Any allegation that a military operation aimed at Venezuela exists in any part of Guyanese territory is false, misleading and provocative,” Ali said in his letter to Gonsalves.

Maduro's letter to Gonsalves repeats Venezuela's contention that the border drawn in 1899 was “the result of a scheme” between the U.S. and the U.K. It also said the dispute “must be amicably resolved in a matter acceptable to both parties.”

Maduro also referred to the Dec. 3 referendum on Venezuela claiming ownership of Essequibo, which has vast oil deposits off its coast.

The meeting between the two leaders was scheduled to last one day, although many expect the disagreement to drag on into next year.


Guyana president calls Venezuela's Maduro an 'outlaw' in border dispute

Suzanne Gamboa and Tom Llamas and Ignacio Torres

Updated Wed, December 13, 2023 

A day before their scheduled meeting, Guyana President Mohamed Irfaan Ali called Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro an "outlaw" who is "acting recklessly" in trying to wrest oil-rich land from Guyana.

In an interview Wednesday with NBC News Now anchor Tom Llamas, Ali reacted to recent comments by Maduro that Venezuela "immediately will proceed to give operating licenses for the exploration and exploitation of oil, gas and mines in our Guayana Essequibo."

"President Maduro is reckless in that statement. It shows he is an outlaw," Ali said.

Venezuela was ordered last week by the United Nation's International Court of Justice (ICJ) to refrain from any changes to the status quo in the Essequibo region of Guyana. Maduro claimed sovereignty over neighboring Guyana's Essequibo region — where oil was found in 2015 — after a questionable referendum. Ali said the issue should be decided by the ICJ.

Guyana President Mohamed Irfaan Ali arrives at the Canada-CARICOM summit in Ottawa in October. (Sean Kilpatrick / The Canadian Press via AP)

As Venezuela has threatened to defy the order, the two nations have been moving forces to their shared border.

Maduro and Ali are scheduled to meet Thursday on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent for bilateral talks. But Ali said he plans to state clearly to Maduro that "Essequibo belongs to Guyana. That we are not exiting the ICJ. That there is no, absolutely no, negotiations on the issue of Essequibo."

Asked if he would give up some land in the Essequibo region, Ali responded "not a single inch."

"Essequibo belongs to Guyana. We are not giving up a single inch, not even in thought or idea, much less physical," Ali said.

The interview aired Wednesday on “Top Story with Tom Llamas” at 7 p.m. ET on NBC News Now.

Essequibo has been in Guyana for centuries, when the boundary for the country was drawn by an international commission.

Although the boundary for Essequibo as Guyana territory was drawn in 1899, Venezuela has said the drawing was unfairly drawn by Americans and Europeans. Venezuela's oil industry has tanked under Maduro's administration.

Ali said Venezuela's actions have parallels to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and those in the Western Hemisphere should not allow it.

"We cannot tolerate this type of reckless behavior in the Western Hemisphere. It has no place here," he said. Maduro has been calling the refusal of Guyana to give up land in the region, which is about two-thirds of the country, an American agenda and imperialism, Ali said.

An Exxon-Mobil consortium first discovered the oil deposits and is the country's largest producer of oil.

"This is absolute nonsense. Was that imperialism when Exxon was investing in Venezuela. Why wasn't it imperialist then?" he asked.

Ali said he thinks Venezuela is capable of "acting recklessly and in a manner that can destabilize the peace that exists within this region" but he added, "we are not afraid because we know we are starting on the right side of international law. We're standing on the right side of history. We're standing on the right side of facts."

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro

Venezuela may not launch full-scale Guyana invasion, but could do something just as dangerous | Opinion

Andres Oppenheimer
Wed, December 13, 2023 
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Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro is not likely to launch a full-scale military invasion of Guyana’s disputed Esequibo region, as he tacitly threatened in a speech this month. But he may launch a “silent invasion,” which could be just as dangerous.

According to this theory, Maduro may send a small team of soldiers to a remote region of the oil-rich Esequibo jungle, and plant a Venezuelan flag. Then, he would release a video of the scene and request that Russia and China ask the United Nations to call for a “cessation of hostilities” in the area. This, in effect, would establish a de facto Venezuelan presence there.

Such an action most likely would trigger an international conflict and give Maduro a “national emergency” excuse to cancel next year’s elections in Venezuela, many experts suspect.

In his televised address to the nation on Dec. 5, Maduro held a map titled “New map of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela” that includes the Esequibo area and announced plans to create a new Venezuelan state there. He called it the “Guayana Esequiba.”

Maduro also said he would grant Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA licenses to explore oil deposits in the area, which makes up about three-quarters of Guyana’s territory.

In a Dec. 8 article with the headline “The entirely manufactured and dangerous crisis over the Esequibo,” Ryan Berg, director of Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Latin America program, speculated that Maduro may engage in “hybrid warfare” or start a silent invasion. “The entirely manufactured and dangerous crisis over the Esequibo.”

Berg argued that Maduro has several “opportunities for hybrid warfare or gray zone tactics,” because “the Esequibo area is enormous (a third larger than the areas of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia), sparsely inhabited and comprised of dense jungle.”

According to Berg, “Maduro might seek to send a small contingency of Venezuelan soldiers into Guyana, plant a flag, then claim that these forces are protecting the newly created state of Guayana Esequiba.”

Asked for more specifics, Berg told me that Maduro may not even need to send soldiers to the Esequibo jungle: The Venezuelan dictator could fake the event.

“Maduro could tape a video in Venezuelan territory, in an area similar to Guyana’s, with Venezuelan soldiers talking about defending their territory,” Berg told me. “Nobody would be able to tell whether it was taped in Venezuela or Guyana.”

Berg says Maduro may not launch a full-blown invasion because Venezuelan armed forces “are better understood as a drug-trafficking organization rather than a proper fighting force.” But he does not rule out an invasion, because, “Dictators do not always choose the ‘rational’ option.”

Most Venezuelans, including top opposition leaders, support their country’s long-contended claim to the Esequibo region. The area was awarded to Guyana in a Paris arbitration decision in 1899, but Venezuela formally repudiated the Paris award in 1962.

Juan Guaidó, the former Venezuelan interim president appointed by the now-dissolved opposition-controlled National Assembly, agrees that a full-scale Venezuelan invasion is unlikely.

“Maduro doesn’t have the capacity even to provide gasoline, water, energy, basic services. He wouldn’t be able to sustain a conventional war,” Guaidó told me. “But I don’t rule out that he would plant a flag, or do something like that, to divert as attention from Venezuela’s domestic problems and provoke an international conflict.”

Indeed, Maduro knows that he is in deep trouble. He is scheduled to run for re-election in 2024, and a recent ORC poll gave him a dismal 14% popularity rate. Meantime, the opposition held a highly successful primary in October, in which hard-liner Maria Corina Machado won with 93% of the vote. That injected new energy into the opposition movement.

Politically cornered, Maduro may create a national emergency to postpone the elections or eliminate the few remaining political freedoms n Venezuela. A military invasion of Guyana would be too risky and could mark the beginning of the end of his regime, as happened when Argentina’s military junta invaded the British-held Falkland/Malvinas islands in 1982.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he opts for planting a Venezuelan flag in the jungle, and turns that episode — real or fake — into a larger international conflict.

Far from Venezuela-Guyana oil flap, Mango Landing just wants peace

Patrick FORT
Wed, December 13, 2023 

Two Venezuelans rest at their home in Mango Landing in Guyana 

(ROBERTO CISNEROS)

Robinson Flores, a Venezuelan who has been living in Essequibo for years, has no time for politicians fighting over the disputed oil-rich region run by Guyana.

Life in this sleepy border village along the muddy Wenamu River is just fine, thank you, he says. And the flap that exploded in recent months as Venezuela lays claim to Essequibo is an unwelcome disruption.

"Politicians do their thing and we pay for the damage," said Flores, a 52-year-old merchant.

Mango Landing sits smack in the middle of the jungle, a stone's throw from Venezuela, just across the river. And it is a far cry from the maelstrom of geostrategic jockeying now under way as Guyana defends its century-old control over Essequibo and Venezuela maneuvers to take it away.

"Indigenous people, Brazilians, Venezuelans and, of course, Guyanans, we all live together in peace," said Doriely Garcia, a 30-year-old chef whose partner is an Indigenous man with Guyanese nationality.

The lone police station in Mango Landing has been beefed up in recent weeks with more officers.

The village is the gateway to Essequibo but is more oriented toward Venezuela. It takes a boat ride of several days to reach the Guyana capital of Georgetown, but in just about an hour on the water you can hit the closest road in Venezuela.

"Everything that arrives here comes from Venezuela: food, fuel, medicine, clothes," said Flores. If the border were to close, he said, "it would strangle us. Venezuelans and Guyanans."

A machete wound on his left calf is covered with a bandage treated with a homemade remedy using vinegar and bacterial cream and applied with adhesive tape.

"Here we got by with what we have," said Flores.

The Essequibo dispute goes like this: President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela has revived a decades-old claim on the region which makes up more than two-thirds of Guyana's territory, since a huge oil find in Essequibo waters came in 2015.

Essequibo has been administered by Guyana for more than a century and is the subject of border litigation before the International Court of Justice in The Hague. It is home to 125,000 of the country's 800,000 citizens.

In some ways Mango Landing looks like a ghost town, with abandoned wooden houses overtaken by hungry, lush vegetation.

People come and go as gold fever lures fortune seekers. But in just a few years the settlement's population has fallen from 400 or 500 to around just 100, most of them Venezuelans.

The exodus is happening because gold at the surface of the earth -- 'oro facil' in Spanish -- as opposed to gold that requires hard digging, is much more scarce.

Another reason for the decline in population is Venezuela's economic implosion, with runaway inflation and shortages of food, medicine and things as basic as soap and toilet paper.

"The economic crisis moved here. Prices have shot up," said Flores.

People who pan or dig for gold do not always make it, as costs run too high to make it profitable. Many hang it up, and leave, giving Mango Landing a disheveled, abandoned look.

The political crisis between Venezuela and Guyana has made things worse.

Since the dispute erupted in September, the price of gasoline in Mango Landing has shot up $2 per liter to $6. A tin of tuna costs $5, and a bottle of Coke goes for more than $7.

- 'No governments help us'

Part of the problem is Venezuelan soldiers who demand bribes to let stuff into Guyana and now demand more money, residents speaking on condition of anonymity said.

"Before we would pay the Venezuelan soldiers, and the syndicates, and the police here," one Venezuelan miner said. Syndicates are crime gangs. "But now there are more military posts, and they demand more money."

"It was a good life up until now but now everything is expensive," said Cindy Francis, a 33-year-old Guyanese who is married to a miner. The couple moved from Georgetown to Mango Landing about 10 years ago.

Francis said she does not care if Essequibo is part of Guyana or Venezuela. "We have to think about maintaining our family. No governments help us," she said, sitting in her home next to a portrait of President Irfaan Ali.

When she sees Venezuelan police on the river she waves, just as she does with local cops in the village. "We are all humans," said Francis.

Milton Shaomeer Ali, a 64-year-old shop owner, says business is very slow. "Now I don't have many customers. One this morning, one two days ago." He said everything depends on mining.

"We need good relations between the politics and the economics," he said.

ExxonMobil (XOM) Remains in Guyana Despite Venezuela Dispute

Zacks Equity Research
Wed, December 13, 2023 


Despite the escalating territorial dispute with neighboring Venezuela, Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM intends to continue increasing production in offshore Guyana, per a report by AP news. Venezuela asserts its ownership of the oil-rich region.

ExxonMobil is reiterating its steadfast, long-term commitment to Guyana amid escalating tensions between the bordering South American countries. The company commits to remain involved, focusing on efficient and responsible resource development in line with the agreement with the Guyana government.

ExxonMobil is steadfast in its commitment to continue operations in Guyana despite Venezuela’s objections to the recent oil block auctions due to pending maritime delimitation. The company has bid for eight of the 14 blocks and awaits a response from the Guyanese government.

Earlier this month, Venezuela’s president, Nicolas Maduro, suggested that companies operating in the resource-rich Essequibo region in Guyana near significant oil deposits should cease operations within three months. Additionally, the Venezuela government aims to ban companies engaged in operations in Guyana from conducting business in the country.

ExxonMobil is currently achieving a daily oil production of 600,000 barrels by drilling more than 40 wells in Guyana’s Essequibo region. The ExxonMobil consortium has not only submitted a bid but has also obtained approval to develop three other areas in the region, which are believed to have additional oil deposits.

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods predicts that the Venezuela-Guyana territorial dispute in the Essequibo region will not be resolved for a couple of years. He emphasizes the need for both nations to respect the arbitration outcome, noting global support from the United States, Europe and other Caribbean nations for the diplomatic resolution pursued by Guyana and Venezuela.
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